Today, iron ore futures fluctuated in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 762.5 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.07% from the previous trading day. Spot prices rose slightly by about 4 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, with most prices negotiated based on actual orders. Steel mills mainly restocked based on rigid demand, and inquiries remained cautious. Overall market trading activity was moderate. According to the latest SMM statistics this week, the daily average hot metal production from sampled blast furnaces recorded 2.386 million mt, up 15,800 mt WoW, mainly due to incremental contributions from blast furnaces that previously underwent maintenance gradually resuming production. Looking ahead, as the intensity of blast furnace maintenance marginally weakens, daily average hot metal production is expected to maintain a steady rebound trend, which will provide continuous rigid support for iron ore demand growth, marking a substantial improvement in fundamental demand. However, given the dual pressure from high in-factory inventory and port inventory, it is expected to take some time for the demand increment to translate into price increases. Therefore, considering all factors, amid the interplay of recovering rigid demand and persistent inventory pressure, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate upward at lows in the short term, with the overall price center likely to experience a slight upward shift. [SMM Steel]

The White House announced on February 6, 2026, that India has committed to purchasing $500 billion worth of US energy commodities, including coking coal, aircraft parts, and technology over the next five years. This strategic agreement aims to secure a stable supply of high-quality metallurgical coal for India’s expanding blast furnace capacity, which is targeting a national output of 300 million tonnes by 2030.

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Brief] Supply side, coking plants maintained stable overall production and focused on active shipments, but market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and the pace of shipments at some coking plants slowed down. Demand side, end-use demand for finished steel performed poorly, blast furnace maintenance at steel mills increased, and coupled with the fact that coke inventory at steel mills had reached reasonable levels after restocking, steel mills currently mainly purchased as needed. In summary, the coke market was generally stable with a slight fall this week.

[Steel Mill Maintenance] Handan Iron & Steel commenced maintenance on a 3,200m³ blast furnace on February 6, which is expected to last until March. The daily average hot metal production impact is estimated at approximately 7,300 mt. [SMM Steel]

[Steel Mill Maintenance] Ansteel Bayuquan is expected to commence maintenance on a 4,000m³ blast furnace on February 25, with the maintenance period anticipated to last 26 days. The daily average hot metal production impact is estimated to be around 9,000 mt. [SMM Steel]

Following an accident in August 2025, United States Steel Corporation announced on February 6, 2026, that it has begun the process of restarting Battery #13 at its Mon Valley Works. This is the second coke battery to return to operation, aimed at restoring the plant's internal coke supply and reducing reliance on external merchant coke. The move is critical for the long-term viability of the integrated facility's blast furnace operations.

Nová Hut (formerly Liberty Ostrava) in the Czech Republic announced a CZK 150 million ($7.3 million) investment for 2026 on February 3. The funds will be used for the preparatory construction of a new 1.5 mtpa Electric Arc Furnace (EAF). This move is part of the European steel industry's shift away from coal-dependent blast furnaces toward scrap-based or DRI-based production to meet emission targets.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums, with coking coal and coke staging a mid-week rise. At the beginning of the week, financial markets experienced sharp fluctuations, dragging down sentiment in the ferrous chain and leading to a pullback in futures. Mid-week, Indonesia's cut to coke production quotas drove coking coal and coke futures to lead the gains, though the impact was more pronounced on thermal coal, while coking coal's rise was largely sentiment-driven and short-lived. In the latter part of the week, finished products continued their seasonal inventory buildup, and support from the raw material side weakened, causing the entire ferrous chain to pull back. In the spot market, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, purchasing activity slowed down further, with end-users only making limited, as-needed purchases at low prices.

Today, iron ore futures were weak, with the most-traded contract I2605 settling at 781.5 yuan/mt, down 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices rose by 1-3 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, while steel mills mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, resulting in an overall subdued trading atmosphere. According to an SMM survey, as of February 4, the blast furnace operating rate at 242 steel mills tracked by SMM reached 86.41%, up 1 percentage point MoM. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate stood at 87.48%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points MoM. Daily average hot metal production at the sampled steel mills totaled 2.3702 million mt, up 21,000 mt MoM. Looking ahead, although production resumptions at blast furnaces have led to some improvement in the rigid demand for iron ore, ample resources in the supply side and high inventory pressure continue to effectively cap price gains. Amid the supply-demand tug-of-war, iron ore prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Brief] Supply side, coking plant losses narrowed, production remained relatively stable, and coke supply saw a slight increase. However, downstream procurement pace slowed down, hindering coking plant shipments. Demand side, end-use demand for finished products remained weak with sluggish sales, and blast furnace maintenance plans at steel mills increased. Most steel mills showed low restocking willingness, primarily purchasing as needed. Overall, the coke market is expected to remain stable in the short term.