Update: 29 July 2026 June imports climb to 173.34 tons, highest since March 2024, according to customs data International gold price falls 8% in first half, while yuan-denominated price drops 10% China’s gold imports surged 89.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 as falling bullion prices, a stronger yuan and sustained demand from investors and commercial banks encouraged overseas purchases. The country imported 864.95 tons of gold between January and June, compared with 457.39 tons in the same period last year, according to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs. China imported 94.16 tons in January, up from 16.52 tons a year earlier. Imports rose to 113.18 tons in February from 76.33 tons and to 161.86 tons in March from 73.67 tons. Purchases stood at 159.84 tons in April, compared with 127.53 tons in the same month last year, before increasing to 162.55 tons in May from 99.55 tons. Imports reached 173.34 tons in June, rising from 63.79 tons a year earlier and marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The June figure was the highest since March 2024. Cheaper international prices and the appreciation of the yuan helped keep Chinese investors interested in bullion, while commercial banks increased imports to replenish inventories and meet commitments related to retail gold sales and accumulation plans. Gold accumulation plans, offered by Chinese banks, allow individuals to purchase bullion in small increments and are among the main channels through which retail investors gain exposure to the precious metal. Lower prices support investment demand The international gold price declined 8% during the first half, while the yuan-denominated price dropped 10%, according to a July 14 report by the World Gold Council, or WGC. The WGC calculations were based on the LBMA Gold Price PM, administered by ICE Benchmark Administration, and the Shanghai Benchmark Gold Price PM published by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, or SGE. Both benchmarks fell 11% in June, according to the WGC, which attributed the decline partly to hawkish messages from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that pushed real yields and the dollar higher. The stronger Chinese currency amplified the decline in local gold prices and made internationally sourced bullion relatively cheaper for domestic buyers, according to analysis published by Bloomberg and the WGC. The first-half decline resulted in gold’s first semiannual loss since 2021, the WGC said. Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded net demand of 29 tons during the first half, the second-strongest first-half performance on record, according to WGC calculations based on company filings. The funds’ total assets under management stood at 243 billion yuan ($36 billion) at the end of June, while their aggregate holdings reached 277 tons, the WGC said. Chinese gold ETFs suffered record monthly outflows of 15 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) in June, reducing their holdings by 17 tons, according to the WGC. The council attributed the June outflows to weaker gold prices and rising investor interest in Chinese equities, as reflected in increased stock-market account openings. Despite the monthly outflow, Chinese gold ETFs attracted about 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) during the first half, the WGC said, based on data from fund company filings. Institutional investor participation and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and economic developments also supported first-half ETF demand, according to the council. Daily average trading volumes in gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, or SHFE, rose by 4 tons month-on-month to 305 tons in June, according to SHFE data compiled by the WGC. The June volume remained below the 2025 average of 457 tons per day but exceeded the five-year average of 265 tons, the WGC said. Gold futures turnover averaged 386 tons per day during the first half as price volatility and increased hedging needs supported activity, according to the council’s analysis of SHFE data. Open interest in gold futures stood at 274 tons at the end of June, down 8% during the month and 13% from the end of 2025, the WGC said, citing SHFE figures. Central bank extends record buying streak Gold withdrawals from the SGE rose 36% month-on-month to 87 tons in June, according to SGE data compiled by the WGC. The council attributed the rebound to opportunistic restocking across the supply chain, continued demand for bars and coins, and comparison with May, when withdrawals fell to their lowest level in 16 years. Despite the monthly recovery, June withdrawals remained close to the lowest levels recorded during the past decade because of continued weakness in gold jewelry demand, according to the WGC. Total SGE withdrawals reached 598 tons during the first half, down 12% year-on-year and 27% below the 10-year average, the council said. The historical comparison was based on SGE data covering 2016 to 2025. The WGC said resilient bullion investment was insufficient to offset weak jewelry consumption, which made manufacturers and retailers cautious about replenishing inventories. The PBoC added 15 tons of gold to its reserves in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, according to the WGC, citing figures from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The June purchase brought the central bank’s first-half acquisitions to 40 tons and extended its gold-buying streak to 20 consecutive months, the longest on record, the council said. China’s official gold reserves reached 2,346 tons, equivalent to about 8% of the country’s official foreign exchange assets, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange cited by the WGC. The central bank accumulated 82 tons of gold during the 20-month purchasing streak, according to WGC calculations based on China’s official reserve disclosures. The WGC said heightened geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and financial-market volatility continued to support gold’s appeal to central banks as an asset without credit risk. Looking ahead, the WGC said Chinese jewelry consumption was likely to remain weak during the seasonal slowdown, although stabilizing gold prices could provide some support. Source： https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/factbox-china-s-gold-imports-jump-89-in-first-half-as-prices-retreat/4012362

Following the start of the definitive phase of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, differences in country-specific default values , default production routes and corresponding benchmarks have begun to translate into significantly different theoretical certificate exposures for unwrought aluminium. SMM analysed EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins and matched the trade data with the 2026 default value, default production route and CBAM benchmark assigned to each origin. The theoretical unit certificate exposure in this analysis is calculated as: 2026 theoretical unit certificate exposure = 2026 default value − benchmark × 97.5% × cross-sectoral correction factor The cross-sectoral correction factor, or CSCF, is provisionally assumed to be 1. The calculation does not deduct any qualifying carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin. The results therefore indicate the relative CBAM exposure of different origins under the default-value scenario. They do not represent the final number of certificates that EU importers will be required to surrender or the final monetary cost. EU-27 unwrought aluminium imports rose 7.0% in 2025 According to SMM calculations, EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins reached approximately 7.63 million tonnes in 2025 , up from 7.13 million tonnes in 2024. This represented an increase of about 502,200 tonnes, or 7.0% year on year . Of the 2025 total, approximately 4.56 million tonnes originated from countries subject to CBAM, accounting for 59.7% of total imports. Imports from CBAM-exempt origins, including Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, amounted to approximately 3.05 million tonnes , representing around 40.0% of the total. A further 25,800 tonnes were recorded without a specified origin and were excluded from the country-level exposure ranking. Applying the 2026 default values and benchmarks to the 2025 trade structure produces an estimated theoretical certificate exposure of approximately 4.09 million tCO₂e for imports from CBAM-covered origins. The trade-weighted average unit exposure was approximately 0.898 tCO₂e per tonne of product . As 2025 remained within the CBAM transitional period, these figures are scenario-based estimates using 2025 trade volumes and the 2026 calculation rules. They do not represent actual certificate obligations for 2025. Primary aluminium route accounted for more than 99% of theoretical exposure The primary aluminium route dominated both CBAM-covered import volumes and theoretical certificate exposure. In 2025, imports assigned to the primary aluminium route totalled approximately 4.46 million tonnes , accounting for 97.8% of imports from CBAM-covered origins. Their theoretical certificate exposure reached approximately 4.06 million tCO₂e , representing 99.3% of the total exposure. The trade-weighted average unit exposure for the primary aluminium route was approximately 0.912 tCO₂e per tonne of product . By comparison, imports assigned to the secondary aluminium route amounted to approximately 99,500 tonnes, or 2.2% of CBAM-covered imports. Their theoretical certificate exposure was approximately 30,600 tCO₂e, with an average unit exposure of around 0.307 tCO₂e per tonne . The gap between the two routes reflects differences in both country default values and the applicable benchmarks. For HS/CN 7601, the benchmark used for the primary aluminium route is 1.423 tCO₂e per tonne , compared with 0.091 tCO₂e per tonne for the secondary aluminium route. This means that, under a default-value declaration scenario, the theoretical CBAM exposure of EU-27 unwrought aluminium imports remains highly concentrated in primary aluminium supply. Mozambique recorded the highest unit exposure, with China also ranking near the top The results show a clear divergence in theoretical unit exposure among origin countries. Mozambique recorded the highest unit exposure among major origins with a country-specific default value, at approximately 2.130 tCO₂e per tonne of product . China followed at approximately 1.913 tCO₂e per tonne , placing it among the origins with the highest default-value-based unit exposure. South Africa recorded an estimated unit exposure of approximately 1.207 tCO₂e per tonne , followed by Russia at 0.989 tCO₂e and Canada at 0.769 tCO₂e. Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, India, the United Kingdom, Egypt and Kazakhstan share similar default values under the primary aluminium route, resulting in unit exposure of approximately 0.670 tCO₂e per tonne . Australia, Brazil, Malaysia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United States recorded unit exposure of approximately 0.483 tCO₂e per tonne . Origins assigned to the secondary aluminium route generally recorded approximately 0.307 tCO₂e per tonne . A high unit exposure does not necessarily mean that an origin faces the greatest aggregate impact. Total exposure also depends on the volume of trade with the EU-27. China illustrates this distinction. EU-27 imports of HS/CN 7601 products from China reached approximately 12,400 tonnes in 2025 , up 24.3% year on year. This corresponded to theoretical certificate exposure of about 23,700 tCO₂e . China therefore ranked near the top on a unit basis, but its comparatively limited shipment volume to the EU-27 kept its aggregate exposure well below that of Mozambique, Canada and several major Gulf suppliers. Mozambique’s total theoretical exposure reached 1.34 million tCO₂e After incorporating 2025 import volumes, Mozambique emerged as the origin with the highest aggregate theoretical certificate exposure. EU-27 imports from Mozambique reached approximately 628,000 tonnes in 2025 , up 17.5% year on year. Based on unit exposure of 2.130 tCO₂e per tonne, its total theoretical exposure was approximately 1.34 million tCO₂e . Mozambique alone accounted for 32.7% of the theoretical exposure associated with CBAM-covered origins. However, the above total exposure is a static estimate based on 2025 trade volumes. Power supply constraints may limit Mozambique’s aluminium smelting capacity and output in 2026–2027, potentially reducing its exports to the EU. As a result, its actual near-term aggregate CBAM exposure may not reach the theoretical level estimated using 2025 trade volumes. Canada supplied approximately 682,800 tonnes to the EU-27 in 2025. Although its unit exposure was considerably lower than Mozambique’s, its larger trade volume lifted its aggregate theoretical exposure to approximately 524,800 tCO₂e , equivalent to 12.8% of the total. Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and South Africa recorded theoretical total exposures of approximately 350,900 tCO₂e, 329,300 tCO₂e, 322,200 tCO₂e and 263,600 tCO₂e, respectively. Mozambique, Canada, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and South Africa together accounted for approximately 76.4% of total theoretical certificate exposure. Mozambique’s position was driven by the combination of a high unit default-value exposure and substantial trade volume. Canada’s unit exposure was not among the very highest, but its large and rapidly increasing export volume significantly amplified its aggregate impact. Four-quadrant analysis places China in the “high intensity, low trade volume” category A four-quadrant analysis using 2025 EU-27 import volume on the horizontal axis and 2026 theoretical unit certificate exposure on the vertical axis provides a clearer view of the combined influence of carbon intensity and trade scale. The core high-exposure quadrant includes Mozambique, Canada, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, South Africa, India and the United Kingdom. These origins combine comparatively large trade volumes with relatively high unit exposure and are the main contributors to aggregate CBAM exposure for EU-27 unwrought aluminium imports. China is the most prominent origin in the high intensity, low trade volume quadrant . Its theoretical unit exposure of approximately 1.913 tCO₂e per tonne is second only to Mozambique, but its current export volume to the EU-27 remains comparatively limited. Ukraine and South Korea are among the origins in the trade-volume-driven quadrant . Both are assigned to the secondary aluminium route and have relatively low unit exposure, but their larger trade volumes increase their aggregate exposure compared with other secondary-route origins. Vietnam, Morocco, Serbia, Bolivia and Mexico are among the origins in the low-exposure quadrant , reflecting both lower unit exposure and limited trade volumes. For Vietnam, HS/CN 7601 unwrought aluminium is assigned to the secondary aluminium default route, resulting in theoretical unit certificate exposure of approximately 0.307 tCO₂e per tonne in 2026, significantly below that of most origins assigned to the primary aluminium route. EU-27 imports from Vietnam amounted to approximately 7,100 tonnes in 2025, down around 27.1% year on year, corresponding to theoretical total certificate exposure of about 2,200 tCO₂e. Vietnam’s overall CBAM exposure therefore remains relatively limited at present. However, should its exports to the EU expand in the future, access to and verification of actual emissions data will remain an important factor affecting the relative competitiveness of Vietnamese products. The quadrant thresholds are analytical dividing lines based on the median values of CBAM-covered origins with actual trade. They do not represent regulatory thresholds set by the EU. Theoretical exposure reached approximately 642,400 tCO₂e in Q1 2026 In the first quarter of 2026, EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins reached approximately 1.52 million tonnes , with a total import value of around €4.36 billion . The average import value was approximately €2,873 per tonne . Imports from CBAM-covered origins amounted to approximately 782,800 tonnes , accounting for 51.6% of total imports. Imports from CBAM-exempt origins reached around 733,000 tonnes, or 48.4%. Based on the 2026 default values and benchmarks, imports from CBAM-covered origins generated theoretical certificate exposure of approximately 642,400 tCO₂e during the quarter. Mozambique remained the largest contributor, with theoretical exposure of around 150,500 tCO₂e. Canada followed with approximately 86,800 tCO₂e, the United Arab Emirates with 82,100 tCO₂e, Bahrain with 63,400 tCO₂e and South Africa with 56,200 tCO₂e. As the analysis does not include Q1 2025 comparison data, no year-on-year conclusion has been drawn for Q1 2026 import volumes or exposure. The quarterly figures are used primarily to illustrate the origin structure during the initial stage of the definitive CBAM period. Access to and verification of actual emissions data could become an important competitiveness factor Country default values are fallback parameters applied when producers are unable to provide actual emissions data that meet EU requirements. They do not necessarily reflect the actual carbon intensity of a specific producer or shipment. For origins with relatively high default-value exposure, including China, Mozambique, South Africa and Russia, producers whose actual embedded emissions are materially lower than the applicable country default value could reduce the certificate exposure faced by EU importers by establishing robust emissions-monitoring systems and providing complete, verified emissions data. Conversely, where suppliers are unable to provide emissions information that is complete, traceable and compliant with EU requirements, importers may have to rely on the relevant country default value. A higher default value could consequently affect supplier selection, purchase negotiations and long-term contract arrangements. The final number of certificates to be surrendered will also depend on actual embedded emissions, production-route classification, data verification and any qualifying carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin. The actual CBAM cost will additionally depend on the CBAM certificate price, which is linked to EU Emissions Trading System allowance prices. The theoretical certificate exposure calculated in this analysis should therefore not be interpreted directly as either the final certificate obligation or the final CBAM cost. Overall, the impact of CBAM on trade in HS/CN 7601 unwrought aluminium will not be determined by country default values alone. Unit certificate exposure, trade scale, actual emissions and the availability of reliable carbon data will jointly shape the competitive position of different origins and producers in the EU market. As the definitive phase progresses, differences in low-carbon production capability, emissions-data management and verification capacity are likely to become increasingly visible in procurement decisions, export competitiveness and trade flows. Data note: The trade scope covers EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins. CBAM-exempt origins, including Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, are included in total import statistics but excluded from theoretical certificate exposure. Origins without a country-specific default value are assigned the applicable value for “Other Countries and Territories.” Unspecified origins are excluded from the country ranking. Theoretical exposure does not deduct qualifying carbon prices paid in third countries. Source: EU-27 import data, EU CBAM default values and benchmarks; compiled by SMM.

SMM July 29 News: Metals market, as of midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.27%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.88%. SHFE lead rose 0.38%. SHFE zinc declined 0.28%. SHFE tin advanced 0.44%. SHFE nickel dropped 0.3%. Additionally, cast aluminum the most-traded contract futures rose 0.61%, alumina the most-traded contract gained 0.19%. Lithium carbonate the most-traded contract advanced 1.91%. Silicon metal the most-traded contract fell 0.73%. Polysilicon the most-traded contract futures continued the decline from the previous trading day to fall further 1.16%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 0.61%, rebar edged down, hot-rolled coil rose 0.15%. Stainless steel declined 0.17%. In coking coal and coke: coking coal the most-traded contract fell 0.12%, coke the most-traded contract gained 0.85%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals nearly all rose. LME copper fell 0.13%, LME aluminum gained 0.19%. LME lead rose 0.24%. LME zinc edged up, LME tin advanced 1.12%. LME nickel increased 0.65%. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.34%, COMEX silver rose 0.31%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold declined 0.8%, SHFE silver the most-traded contract dropped 0.83%. Additionally, as of midday close, platinum the most-traded contract futures fell 0.78%, palladium the most-traded contract futures declined 0.94%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container freight futures contract rose 2.63%, to 2,870 points. As of 11:38 on July 29, some futures midday market conditions: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices concentrated at 24,685-24,790 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream traded at 24,815-24,910 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream traded at 24,615-24,720 yuan/mt. Early in the session, the market was at a premium of 30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price for cargoes with invoices dated next month, and no quotes were available against the contract…… Macro Front Domestic: [China's Total Social Logistics Value in H1 Exceeds 180 Trillion Yuan] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released today (29th) the logistics operation data for H1 this year. In H1, the scale of logistics demand continued to expand, with prominent features of structural optimization and momentum shift. In H1 this year, China's total social logistics value reached 181.1 trillion yuan, up 5.1% YoY, 0.4 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period. The supporting and leading role of logistics demand in national economic growth continues to strengthen. On a quarterly basis, growth was 6.2% in Q1 and 4.4% in Q2, showing an overall trend of stable growth with incremental advances.（CCTV News) [CO2 emissions per unit of GDP to drop by 17% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period] The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, together with 18 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), jointly released the National Climate Change 15th Five-Year Plan. According to the Plan, by 2030, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% from 2025 levels, and CO2 emissions per unit of product in industries covered by the national carbon emissions trading market will drop by around 3% compared with 2025. A nationwide voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market that is transparent and credible, with unified methodologies, broad participation, and aligned with international practices will be established. A product carbon footprint management system will be basically in place. Monitoring and control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases will be strengthened, forming a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emission reduction capacity of 30 million tonnes. Climate change adaptation work systems will become more complete, phased progress will be made in building a climate-resilient society, and awareness and capacity to address climate change will continue to strengthen. China’s influence, guiding power, shaping power, and moral appeal in global climate governance will be significantly enhanced. (from Wall Street News APP) The PBOC today conducted 206.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. On the same day, 253 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. The PBOC also conducted 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repo operations. US Dollar: As of 11:38 am, the US dollar index fell 0.11 to 101.3. Market attention returned to the Strait of Hormuz, as the risk of energy supply disruptions complicated the inflation outlook, coinciding with the Fed’s interest rate decision due this Wednesday, further increasing uncertainty. Markets currently price in about a 70% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady this Wednesday, with the current target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. JPMorgan analysts believe the probability of a rate hike "may be lower than the roughly 30% currently priced in by markets," citing that "while inflation is elevated, there is no risk of it surging further." The bank assigns a 50% probability to a "hawkish hold," believing the Fed will remain vigilant while noting the downward signal on inflation from recent energy price movements. (from Wall Street News APP) BNP Paribas Markets 360 team expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, "although the possibility of an unexpected rate hike cannot be completely ruled out." The bank’s base case is for one rate hike in December, but "there is a significant risk that policymakers will strengthen the inflation language in the FOMC statement, which would be tantamount to hinting that a September rate hike is on the table." The wording on price stability will be the focal point of discussions at this meeting, while the statement will reflect a willingness to act if necessary. However, even if such wording is absent from the statement, a September rate hike cannot be ruled out; conversely, if such wording is included, it does not necessarily guarantee a rate hike in September. At the press conference, Warsh is expected to broadly follow the June playbook: brief opening remarks, concise answers, and very limited forward guidance. Assuming the statement sees relatively small changes from June, we believe the opening statement will closely track Warsh's congressional testimony, and his commentary on inflation and labor data, the economic outlook, and his commitment to restoring price stability will also remain consistent with that testimony. (Jin10 Data APP) Gary Pzegeo, Chief Investment Officer of Private Wealth US at CIBC, noted that Warsh's hawkish remarks on price stability, combined with a batch of soft data (CPI and nonfarm payrolls), may be enough for the US Fed to stand pat. This aligns with market sentiment. "Interest rate futures are pointing to a hold at the July meeting," Pzegeo said, "but expectations for a September rate hike have been rising. In the current geopolitical backdrop, September is a long way off, and the US Fed will have more data to process between now and September 16." (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 69.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 30.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 23.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 56.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 20.2%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data Front: Data to be released today include Australia's June unadjusted monthly CPI, Switzerland's July ZEW investor sentiment index, and UK June mortgage approvals from the Bank of England. Additionally, SK Hynix will report its Q2 earnings. Crude Oil Front: As of 11:38 AM, oil prices on both benchmarks surged sharply, with WTI up 3.92% and Brent up 3.55%. Renewed tensions in the Middle East fueled a sharp rebound in oil prices. The immediate trigger for this oil price rebound was a statement issued by US Central Command. Ryan McKay, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, said, "We remain cautious on any potential agreement that does not specifically address the Strait of Hormuz issue, as disagreements over control of the waterway have previously led to aggressive actions by Iran and caused earlier memoranda of understanding to fall apart prematurely." (from Wallstreetcn APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Rising compliance costs, a verification bottleneck, and tightening EU import quotas combine to reshape the competitive landscape for Asian stainless steel suppliers in Europe from 2026 onward. The EU CBAM entered its definitive implementation phase on January 1, 2026 — transitioning from a reporting exercise into a mechanism with real trade cost implications.

On July 22, 2026, a delegation from Shanghai Metals Market Information Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM) held in-depth discussions with representatives of Stavian Industrial Metal JSC. The participants included: SMM Logan Lu, CEO of SMM Cason Lou, Director of Aluminum Processing, Marketing Department Lexi Chen, Key Account Manager for Overseas Information Sales Khai Yuen Chin, Senior Overseas Aluminum Analyst Stavian Industrial Metal JSC James (Nguyen Danh Vinh), Deputy Director of International Business Alex (Bui Trung Kien), International Business Representative The two sides exchanged views on the global aluminum market, the development of Vietnam’s aluminum industry, market information services, and the establishment of a regional pricing system, reaching broad consensus on several areas for future cooperation. Focusing on Southeast Asia and Exploring the Evolving Global Aluminum Industry Landscape SMM noted that in recent years, it has continued to expand its sourcing and sales network across Southeast Asia, establishing stable supply-chain connections in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other markets. Its business covers multiple metal categories, including aluminum, steel, and copper, while the company continues to explore emerging market opportunities across Southeast Asia. At the SMM AICE 2026 Southeast Asia Aluminum Industry Conference, to be held in Ho Chi Minh City on November 19–20, SMM will officially launch the SMM Vietnam Aluminum Price and provide a detailed explanation of its pricing methodology. Against the backdrop of global supply-chain restructuring, evolving logistics patterns, and deepening regional trade, market demand for high-quality, in-depth, and timely market intelligence and reliable price references continues to rise. To address these needs, SMM has established a global presence across price assessments, market research, databases, consulting services, and international conferences. Its services cover major markets including China, Southeast Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Africa, providing professional market intelligence and data services to participants across the global industrial value chain. Advancing Vietnam’s Pricing System to Support Regional Industry Development SMM noted that aluminum trading in Southeast Asia still commonly references LME prices and the MJP Premium. However, as Vietnam’s manufacturing sector expands rapidly and domestic consumption continues to grow, demand is increasing for regional price benchmarks that better reflect local supply-and-demand fundamentals. Since July 3, 2026, SMM has officially launched the Vietnam 6063 Non-Homogenized Aluminum Billet Processing Fee and the SMM Vietnam 6063 Non-Homogenized Aluminum Billet Price , with both assessments updated daily on each trading day. （Resources come from the SMM official website） In recent years, SMM has continued to develop its global pricing system while accelerating its presence in Southeast Asia. By engaging directly with participants across the industrial value chain and establishing local price data collection networks, SMM is continuously improving its Vietnam market price assessment framework and providing the regional market with more open, transparent, and impartial price references. Representatives from Stavian Industrial Metal JSC expressed strong recognition of this direction and shared insights into the rapid development of Vietnam’s market in recent years. They noted that Vietnam’s aluminum trading volume continues to expand alongside growing domestic demand. Establishing a regional pricing system that more accurately reflects local market conditions would help improve transparency across the industrial value chain and support the healthy and sustainable development of the market. Stavian Industrial Metal JSC Founded in 2021, Stavian Industrial Metal JSC is a member of Stavian Group, one of Vietnam’s major multinational industrial groups. The company specializes in the trading, supply-chain management, processing and manufacturing, and industrial investment of industrial metals including aluminum, steel, copper, and zinc. Its business network spans more than 100 countries and regions worldwide, with the goal of becoming a leading integrated industrial metals service platform in Southeast Asia. In recent years, Stavian has continued to increase investment in Vietnam’s domestic industrial sector, gradually expanding beyond traditional metals trading into industrial investment and advanced manufacturing. Its key areas of development include: Industrial Park Development Stavian Group’s industrial park platform is advancing the development of green industrial parks in Vietnam, with major projects including industrial parks in Thai Nguyen Province and Hung Yen Province. These projects aim to attract industries including electronics manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, supporting industries, logistics, and food processing. They also incorporate ESG principles such as green energy, circular economy practices, and wastewater reuse, supporting Vietnam’s manufacturing upgrade and facilitating foreign investment projects. Green Metals Development The company is actively developing supply chains for green aluminum, green steel, and recycled metals while promoting the use of low-carbon metal materials. Carbon management and ESG principles have also been integrated into the company’s corporate strategy, with the goal of becoming a leading green metals distributor and carbon services provider in Southeast Asia. Major Industrial Cooperation Projects In recent years, Stavian has established strategic partnerships with major Vietnamese enterprises including Viet Hai Group and Dai Dung Group. These partnerships cover areas such as shipbuilding, steel structure engineering, machinery manufacturing, new energy infrastructure, and industrial projects, enabling the companies to jointly participate in major industrial and infrastructure developments across Vietnam. As one of Vietnam’s rapidly growing industrial metals companies, Stavian Industrial Metal JSC plays an important role in supporting the country’s manufacturing upgrade and strengthening its domestic industrial metals supply chain. It has also emerged as a representative local enterprise within Vietnam’s aluminum and broader industrial metals industry. Join the Conversation at SMM AICE 2026 Connect with aluminum producers, processors, traders, manufacturers, certification organisations, industry associations and decision-makers from across Southeast Asia and the global market. Explore aluminum pricing, primary aluminum supply, processing technologies, low-carbon development, CBAM compliance and new opportunities for regional cooperation. ? Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam ? November 19–20, 2026 Register now: bit.ly/AICE26 and secure your Super Early Bird Pass and save up to USD 200. Register before August 31, 2026.

SMM, July 28: In metals markets: Base metals generally rose in overnight trading both domestically and overseas, with only LME nickel and SHFE nickel both declining—LME nickel fell 0.23%, SHFE nickel fell 0.44%. LME copper led the gains with a 1.09% increase, while LME zinc and LME tin both rose over 0.7%—LME zinc gained 0.77% and LME tin gained 0.72%. Other metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.7%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.37%. Ferrous metals generally fell overnight, with stainless steel down 0.82%, HRC, rebar, and iron ore all down over 0.3%—HRC fell 0.33%, rebar fell 0.36%, and iron ore fell 0.34%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 2.04%, while coke fell 0.65%. In precious metals overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.19%, while COMEX silver fell 0.36%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.18% and SHFE silver fell 0.72%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM July 28: Macro Front China: [ NBS: Profits of China's Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Rose 18.7% in Jan–Jun; Electronics-Related Sectors Saw Rapid Profit Growth ] On July 27, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in H1, against the backdrop of stable industrial production growth and a continued rebound in industrial product prices, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.5% YoY, accelerating 1.5 percentage points from Q1. The faster revenue growth drove profits of industrial enterprises above designated size up 18.7% YoY, accelerating 3.2 percentage points from Q1. By the three major categories, profits in mining and manufacturing rose 33.5% and 20.1%, respectively, accelerating 17.3 ppt and 1.0 ppt from Q1; profits in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply fell 4.2%. In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide rose 15.1% YoY. In H1, profits of raw material manufacturing enterprises above designated size surged 71.7% YoY, boosting the overall industrial profit growth by 8.8 ppt. By sector, driven by factors such as favorable demand for non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum, profits in the non-ferrous sector jumped 99.4%, boosting overall industrial profit growth by 4.7 ppt. Propelled by rising prices of petroleum-related products, the petroleum processing sector turned from a loss to a profit YoY, while profits in the chemical sector grew 67.8%. US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.08% overnight to 101.53. Citadel Securities expects the US Fed to raise interest rates this week—a surprise move that would reinforce Chairman Kevin Warsh's credibility in the fight against inflation. In a report, Frank Flight, the firm's head of macro strategy, wrote that a 25-bp hike on Wednesday would cement Warsh's repeated commitment to restoring price stability while signaling that policymakers no longer rely on signaling every policy move in advance. "Markets may again be underestimating the degree of the Fed's hawkish shift." This week's hike would "decisively end the era of forward guidance" while underscoring the Fed's independence. US President Trump on Monday commented on the Fed, saying that Chairman Warsh is very good but he has to deal with the committee's issues. He believes Warsh will do the right thing and knows what Warsh wants. On interest rates, Trump said rates should be lower and the US should have the lowest rates in the world. He also mentioned that costs are falling rapidly. (Jin10) Citi traders are betting that the Fed will hold rates steady this week, even though the swaps market assigns over a one-third probability to a 25-bp hike. Citi’s global head of short-term rates trading, Akshay Singal, said the bank is taking on July FOMC meeting contracts based on “high conviction”—positions that will pay off if the central bank stays on hold. Currently, the swaps market sees a nearly 40% probability of a 25-bp hike this week. This comes after escalating Middle East tensions triggered wild swings in oil prices and US Treasury yields, fueling inflation worries. “We remain strongly forecasting that the Fed will hold rates steady,” Singal told Bloomberg News. He added that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh “has made it very clear that he wants the market to focus on the data, and the data tell us there’s no need for the Fed to hike now.” Singal said Warsh’s opposition to forward guidance has also added to market uncertainty. “The market is currently lacking clear guidance,” Singal said. “We expect a healthy and robust debate, but ultimately rates will be left unchanged.” (Wall Street CN) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 36.3%. By September, the probability of rates staying on hold is 18.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 25.8%. (Jin10) Other Currencies: Capital Economics economist Neil Shearing said in a report that while markets have priced in slightly more than 50 bp of rate hikes from the Fed, BOE, and ECB by mid-2027, policy paths could diverge next year. If the Iran war ends, energy prices will retreat and domestic economic fundamentals will become the main driver of monetary policy. However, underlying inflation pressures in the UK and eurozone are weaker. The situation in the US is different, and fiscal policy also remains relatively loose. Shearing said it is becoming increasingly difficult to justify the tightening expectations priced in for the ECB and BOE, though the Fed may resume tightening before long. (Jin10) According to people familiar with the matter, the Swiss National Bank plans to keep its key interest rate at zero until the end of 2027 before potentially starting to hike. This view is based mainly on current inflation forecasts and assumes no major new shocks. They noted that the recent softening of the Swiss franc against the euro and the interest rate differential between Switzerland and the eurozone are also factors shaping this expectation. The people said that if the economic outlook faces fresh shocks, implementing negative rates remains an option, but they stressed that this is not the current baseline scenario. They added that zero rates have not seriously hurt the profitability of the Swiss banking sector. The SNB kept rates unchanged at its June meeting and expects to keep them on hold until the end of next year. (Jin10) Macro Front: Today, data releases include the US ADP employment change for the week ending July 11, the May FHFA House Price Index MoM, the May S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY (NSA), the July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and the July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. In addition, RBA Governor Bullock will speak, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump. Crude Oil: Both oil benchmarks plunged overnight, with WTI falling 8.29% and Brent falling 6.9%. The Middle East geopolitical risks that had been driving the relentless surge in oil prices showed clear signs of cooling. US President Trump confirmed that he would suspend a new round of strikes against Iran, leaving a window for diplomatic negotiations, and the market rapidly unwound the “war premium” previously priced in. Market analysis suggests that the sharp sell-off was not driven by a sudden deterioration in demand but rather a concentrated release of the risk premium that had accumulated rapidly due to Strait of Hormuz transit risks and escalating US-Iran military tensions. However, several institutions also warned that the current situation remains far from genuine de-escalation, and oil prices could still rebound sharply if military action escalates again. (Wall Street CN) Although market sentiment has improved markedly, analysts generally believe it is still too early to say that Middle East risks have passed. The Wall Street Journal noted that the US suspension of military action has increased the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution to the crisis and boosted market expectations that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will eventually normalize. However, key variables including Red Sea shipping security, attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the Iran nuclear issue, and the future passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, meaning international oil prices will remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Reuters also pointed out that the market’s focus this week will remain on whether US-Iran contacts can achieve substantive progress. If negotiations fail and military action re-escalates, the risk premium just released from the energy market could quickly return to oil prices. (Wall Street CN) US President Trump said on Monday that the US has collected more than $13 billion from Venezuelan crude oil sales since US forces abducted former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a cross-border operation. “Venezuela has brought us $13 billion? I think it’s more than that,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Michigan to visit a General Motors plant. “We’ve more than made back the cost of that war many times over.” Trump claimed the money was used to keep Venezuela running. “We’re making a lot of money—billions and billions of dollars from Venezuela.” (Financial Times)

The spot market for overseas primary aluminum in Asia came under broad downward pressure this week, with average spot transaction prices in key Asian trading regions falling sharply week-on-week. Downstream industries entered the traditional off-season with persistently sluggish buying interest. In addition, mounting inventory and cash flow pressure among some traders prompted more cut-price liquidation, leading to significantly divergent market quotations and a continuous downward shift in spot price levels. 1. Weekly Comparison of Primary Aluminum Spot Prices 2. Interpretation of Transaction Logic by Region South Korea, Thailand and Japan shared similar bearish drivers this week, weighed down jointly by sluggish terminal demand in the off-season and liquidation pressure on the trading side. Downstream processing sectors have entered the seasonal off-season. End-users only conduct sporadic purchases to meet rigid demand, while large-scale stock replenishment activities are absent. Trading activity across the market remains subdued, and buyers have gained greater bargaining power. On the supply side, traders are facing sharply rising inventory pressure. Some traders have cut offers actively to accelerate inventory destocking amid cash flow strains, resulting in rising low-priced transactions in the market. Meanwhile, market quotations are highly polarized. Traders without inventory or capital pressure opt to hold firm on offers at relatively high levels, while those saddled with heavy inventories sell at discounts. Low-priced deals continue to weigh on market benchmarks. Nevertheless, downstream buyers remain cautious, showing little willingness to make bulk purchases even on dips, which fails to generate sufficient buying support for spot premiums. 3. Brief Outlook In the short term, no signs of improvement are visible in the off-season environment for Asian downstream sectors. Terminal rigid demand is unlikely to pick up noticeably, and traders still need time to clear inventories. Overseas primary aluminum spot premiums are expected to stay weak. Market participants will continue monitoring the recovery of downstream demand, newly signed long-term contracts and inventory destocking progress among traders. Should demand stay muted, regional spot prices may face further downside risks.

Indonesia is predominantly a thermal-coal producer serving power generation and industrial boilers; metallurgical coal represents a comparatively small part of the country’s production and export mix. Indonesia entered 2026 with the coal market expecting a government-led correction after two years of exceptionally high output. Policymakers signalled tighter RKAB approvals to control oversupply, support prices, preserve reserves and prioritise domestic demand. The result was a sharp recovery in the country’s core low and medium-CV coal prices, even though mine production did not fall as quickly as sentiment initially implied. The full H1 picture is therefore more complex than a simple supply-cut story. Indonesia retained abundant mining capacity and large headline production, but policy uncertainty, domestic obligations, coal-quality mismatches and selective marketing reduced the amount of coal immediately available to export buyers. At the same time, LNG disruption in Q2 encouraged greater coal burn in Asia and gave the rally a real demand component. 1. Indonesia’s coal foundation: scale, cost and Asian proximity Indonesia’s competitive advantage is not simply the size of its coal reserves. It is the combination of large-scale and relatively low-cost mining, short shipping distances to major Asian buyers and the ability to supply a wide range of thermal-coal qualities. This makes Indonesia the dominant volume supplier in seaborne low- and medium-CV coal, particularly to China, India, the Philippines, Malaysia and South Korea. Indonesia had approximately 97.96 billion tonnes of coal resources at end-2024. The supplied 2025 reserve chart reports 33.25 billion tonnes (33,250 Mt) of proved-plus-probable coal reserves. Kalimantan holds 69.3% and Sumatra 30.7%, with East Kalimantan and South Sumatra the two largest reserve regions. Around 69% of identified resources were low-calorific coal of 4,200 kcal/kg GAR or below. Indonesia approximately reports national coal reserves at 33.25 billion tonnes. East Kalimantan alone accounts for 47.2%, followed by South Sumatra at 23.5%; other islands collectively contribute only about 0.05%. This structure is visible from Indonesia’s mining-permit distribution. Kalimantan is the core export base, supported by established river, barging and seaborne logistics. Sumatra has greater domestic relevance through PLN supply, mine-mouth power plants and consumption of lower-CV coal. Higher-CV material exists, but it is not the dominant volume base of the Indonesian system. That quality profile creates both an advantage and a vulnerability. Low-CV coal is inexpensive on a per-tonne basis, but it is not always inexpensive after adjusting for energy content. Export competitiveness can therefore change quickly when freight rates rise or buyers switch toward more energy-dense coal from Australia, South Africa or other origins. 2. Coal-quality classification: where Indonesian supply sits Indonesian thermal coal is conventionally classified by calorific value on a gross-as-received basis. GAR reflects the energy value of coal including its as-received moisture and is closely linked to the typical moisture, ash, sulphur, combustion behaviour and end-use of each cargo. Indonesia’s commercial identity is concentrated in the low- and medium-CV portion of this spectrum, which are usually in the range of ICI 3 to ICI 5. The quality labels are broad commercial descriptors. Actual cargo value also depends on moisture, sulphur, ash, mine location and logistics. Both the ICI commercial assessment system and the HBA administrative system are structured around the qualities Indonesia actually mines and sells, although they use different reference specifications and serve different purposes. ICI has five grades; the current HBA framework has four. 3. Production expanded rapidly before the 2026 policy turn Indonesia’s coal production illustrates a decade of steady output growth interrupted by a first pullback in 2025. Production rose from 563.7 million tonnes in 2020 to a peak of 836 million tonnes in 2024, a compound annual growth rate of roughly 10.4%, a pace driven largely by expanding export demand from China and India alongside rising domestic industrial consumption. That growth reversed in 2025, with output easing to approximately 817 million tonnes, a decline of about 2.3% year-on-year, marking the first contraction in the series and an early signal of the tighter production discipline that would carry into the 2026 RKAB cycle. A notable feature of the underlying data is that Indonesia's Domestic Market Obligation has been met, and generally exceeded, in every year shown. Actual domestic allocation has consistently run in the range of roughly 25% to 30% of total production, comfortably above the regulatory minimum requirement, rather than sitting at the statutory floor. This suggests domestic supply commitments have not been a binding constraint on producers during this period; rather, the recent tightening in domestic allocation reflects deliberate policy intent to raise that share further, not a response to prior shortfalls. Exports have remained the larger channel throughout, but their share of total production has gradually narrowed as the domestic allocation has grown, consistent with the broader shift toward prioritising Indonesia's power and smelting demand. After this high-output period, the government initially sought a much sharper reduction for 2026, with an ambition to move production toward the 600 Mt range. Many companies reportedly received initial RKAB quotas 40–70% below their 2025 levels. The policy objectives were broader than price support: they included controlling oversupply, preserving reserves and ensuring that domestic power and strategic industries received priority. 4. Why Indonesia runs two coal benchmarks 4.1 HBA: the government’s administrative reference Harga Batubara Acuan is set monthly by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Its main role is administrative: HBA forms the basis for the Harga Patokan Batubara reference selling price, royalty and PNBP calculations, and DMO-price compliance. Cargo adjustments reflect actual calorific value, moisture, sulphur and ash against four reference specifications: HBA at 6,322 kcal/kg GAR, HBA-I at 5,300, HBA-II at 4,100 and HBA-III at 3,400. HBA History Timeline Before 2023, HBA used a weighted basket that included the Indonesian Coal Index, Newcastle Export Index, GlobalCoal Newcastle Index and Platts 5900 alongside Indonesian assessments. Because several components represented premium high-CV coal from outside Indonesia, HBA could detach sharply from the value realised by Indonesian sellers of low-CV cargoes. In October 2022, for example, HBA reached about $330/t while ICI 4, representative of a grade many Indonesian producers were actually shipping, was around $91–95/t. Producers argued that the gap overstated royalty obligations for companies not selling premium coal. Kepmen ESDM No. 41/2023 replaced the international-index basket with a formula based on actual realised FOB-vessel transaction prices reported through the e-PNBP Minerba system. The calculation assigns 70% weight to the prior month’s average sales price and 30% to the month before that. The supplied material identifies Kepmen ESDM No. 72/2025 as the current governing regulation and says it retains the transaction-based approach and four-tier structure. 4.2 ICI: the commercial market benchmark The Indonesian Coal Index is a weekly market-assessed price series jointly produced by Argus Media and PT Coalindo Energy. It covers five FOB grades, 6,500, 5,800, 5,000, 4,200 and 3,400 kcal/kg GAR, and draws on input from buyers, sellers and intermediaries active in the physical market. ICI is more commonly used in commercial negotiation because of its frequency, independence, granular mapping to actual cargo qualities and comparability with Newcastle and Richards Bay benchmarks. HBA remains indispensable, but for a narrower fiscal and administrative function. Since HBA is now derived from domestic transactions that themselves reflect market conditions, the two series move more closely than before 2023, although HBA still tends to lag. That breadth is a large part of why ICI functions as the leading price reference for Indonesian coal more broadly, used for both domestic and international contracts, royalty and tax calculations, corporate finance, and production planning, rather than a narrower, origin-specific price series. Its weekly cadence, relative to HBA's monthly and backward-looking construction, is the other key reason it remains the benchmark commercial parties actually negotiate against: it responds to current market conditions rather than lagging by up to two months, it is derived independently of government administration, and it is quoted alongside Newcastle and Richards Bay for cross-market comparison. HBA continues to serve a narrower but essential function, determining royalty obligations and DMO-price settlement rather than commercial transaction value. 5. Early-2026 production: policy tightened faster than mine output Indonesia’s coal production did not collapse in early 2026. The market became more constrained because production was increasingly shaped by RKAB policy rather than mining capability. Preliminary figures cited in the supplied analysis put January–May output at 302 Mt, only 6% lower year on year, while coal sales and marketing fell much more sharply to 257.27 Mt, down 17%. An indicative H1 estimate of about 362.4 Mt would already equal more than 60% of a 600 Mt annual target and imply an annualised pace above 700 Mt. This was the core contradiction of H1: supply policy was bullish for prices, but implementation remained incomplete. Miners were still producing at a relatively high rate while market absorption, exports and domestic allocations became more selective. 6. Exports, Asian demand and Indonesia’s global position In the 2025 customs mirror-data comparison, Indonesia remained the world’s largest coal exporter by volume at 531.15 Mt, equal to 41.9% of reported export-side declarations. Australia followed at 356.45 Mt. The United States, South Africa, Colombia, Russia and Canada were substantially smaller. Australia competes most directly in high-CV thermal and metallurgical coal; Indonesia leads total export volume through its large low- and medium-CV thermal-coal base. Top 20 coal-exporting countries in 2025 (million tonnes; customs mirror-data ranking). On the import side, China was the largest reported buyer in 2025 at 491.09 Mt, or 32.5% of import-side declarations, followed by India at 253.46 Mt, or 16.8%. Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan formed the next group. Global seaborne coal demand is therefore heavily concentrated in Asia. For Indonesia, China and India remain the main external demand centres because of their scale and ability to consume Indonesian low- and medium-CV coal. Top 20 coal-importing countries in 2025 (million tonnes; customs mirror-data ranking). 6.1 H1 2026 reported shares and June destination mix According to SMM-processed data and available customs information, January-June 2026 export-side declarations totalled 469.32 Mt. Indonesia accounted for 195.58 Mt, or 41.7% of this reported origin-side total, followed by Australia at 29.8%, the United States at 8.1% and South Africa at 6.9%. On the importer side, combined January-June destination demand was led by China at 182.82 Mt, or 30.4% of the reported total, followed by India at 17.0%, Japan at 11.0% and South Korea at 9.5%. These proportions describe the January-June global origin structure and importer-side destination demand; they are not an Indonesia-to-China bilateral matrix. Because late-period customs reporting is incomplete, SMM treats them as provisional H1 proportions that may be revised after additional declarations. 7. DMO, "penugasan" and the difference between total and usable supply Indonesia’s Domestic Market Obligation is a domestic-priority rule. The general benchmark requires coal producers to allocate 25% of approved annual production to domestic users. Compliance is linked to RKAB approvals and annual domestic assignments, with reporting, quality and delivery obligations that protect PLN, coal-fired power plants and strategic industries. The 25% benchmark is therefore a minimum policy reference rather than a uniform realised ratio for every miner. Non-compliance may trigger compensation funds, fines or restrictions on overseas coal sales. "Penugasan" refers to the practical assignment of domestic supply, identifying which miner supplies which domestic buyer, usually PLN or another strategic user. DMO is the broad quota, while penugasan is the allocation mechanism. This makes the burden uneven: miners with large PLN or state-linked assignments can effectively supply more than the headline percentage. Indonesia’s domestic coal challenge is less about aggregate national availability than the allocation of suitable coal to specific users. DMO establishes producers’ broad domestic sales obligations, while the government may appoint particular producers or traders to address urgent supply shortages. However, the resulting burden cannot be inferred solely from the share of demand associated with state-linked users; company-level assignments and delivery data are needed to show which suppliers carry the largest obligation. PLN Group and independent power producers were estimated to require 152.51 Mt in 2026. The reported January–May shortfall of approximately 9.4 Mt comprised 5.67 Mt of medium-rank coal and 3.76 Mt of low-rank coal. However, the stated receipt average of 10.7 Mt per month does not fully reconcile with these figures and should be checked against PLN’s actual monthly delivery schedule. The shortage nevertheless illustrates that sufficient national production does not guarantee the availability of the correct coal grade, location and delivery timing for each power plant. Price-cap framework: Coal supplied for public electricity generation is capped at US$70/t FOB vessel at the 6,322 kcal/kg GAR reference specification under MEMR Decree 139.K/HK.02/MEM.B/2021. Coal supplied to domestic industrial users, including cement, is capped at US$90/t under Decree 58.K/HK.02/MEM.B/2022. Both marker prices are adjusted for actual calorific value, moisture, sulphur and ash. The US$90/t regime excludes metal-mineral processing and refining, so smelter coal should not automatically be treated as cement-price-capped. The commercial tension becomes material when export-equivalent netbacks exceed the domestic caps. Take example for the first May 2026 period, the official 6,322 GAR HBA was US$106.57/t, implying a headline benchmark gap of US$36.57/t versus the PLN cap and US$16.57/t versus the industrial cap before quality, freight, contract and royalty effects. A miner carrying a high DMO or penugasan share may therefore earn less revenue and margin than on an export sale of comparable coal, creating an incentive to limit domestic exposure to required or assigned volumes. This is a margin concern, not a legal option to avoid DMO: non-compliance can trigger fines, compensation payments and export restrictions. If export prices fall below the caps, or quality and logistics adjustments absorb the spread, the export premium can narrow or disappear. 8. H1 2026 price trend: policy-led Q1, demand-led Q2 For analysing 2026 prices, ICI 3, ICI 4 and ICI 5 provide the clearest view because they represent Indonesia’s physical medium- and low-CV market. HBA remains relevant for administrative and fiscal purposes, but its monthly look-back means it tends to follow the physical market with a delay. Q1: RKAB expectations, weather, and tighter spot supply Q1 was initially driven by expectations that Indonesia would reduce its 2026 coal production target from 790 million tonnes in 2025 to around 600 million tonnes. While company-level RKAB allocations were still being finalised, delayed approvals and uncertainty over individual quotas made some miners cautious about production planning and forward sales. This tightened immediately available spot cargoes, particularly from smaller and medium-sized producers. Seasonal rainfall reinforced the policy-driven supply concerns by disrupting open-pit mining, haul roads and barging operations in parts of Kalimantan and Sumatra. January exports fell to 39.56 million tonnes, down 22.7% month on month, while BPS subsequently confirmed that national coal production declined during Q1. However, the impact was uneven: some producers front-loaded output and DMO deliveries ahead of potential quota reductions, meaning the market faced constrained marginal supply rather than a uniform nationwide production cut. From January 2 to March 27, ICI 3 rose 23.0% from $60.91/t to $74.89/t, ICI 4 increased 32.7% from $45.46/t to $60.31/t, and ICI 5 gained 17.6% from $30.97/t to $36.41/t. ICI 4 recorded the strongest percentage increase, consistent with tighter availability and stronger competition for Indonesia’s core 4,200 kcal/kg GAR export grade. Nevertheless, part of its outperformance reflected its lower starting price, while the LNG disruption beginning in early March also contributed to the final stage of the Q1 increase. Q2: LNG disruption and gas-to-coal demand During Q2, market support shifted toward regional energy security. Disruption to oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz removed a substantial portion of global energy supply, sharply raising Asian gas and international oil prices. Higher LNG prices encouraged utilities with sufficient fuel flexibility and available coal-fired capacity to reduce spot-gas consumption and increase coal generation. The disruption also affected coal supply costs. Brent rose from around $71/bbl on February 27 to $104/bbl on March 9 and remained volatile during Q2, while diesel and other refined-product prices increased even more sharply. Because Indonesian open-pit coal production depends heavily on diesel-powered mining equipment, trucks, barges and support vessels, higher fuel prices raised production and logistics costs. The coal rally therefore reflected both stronger gas-to-coal switching demand and a higher cost base across the Indonesian supply chain. From March 27 to June 26, ICI 3 rose another 13.3% to $84.83/t, ICI 4 gained 9.3% to $65.92/t, and ICI 5 increased 14.1% to $41.54/t. Prices peaked around June 12 before easing modestly into month-end. Across H1, ICI 3 increased 39.3%, ICI 4 gained 45.0% and ICI 5 rose 34.1%. Overall, the rally reflected the combined effects of RKAB-related supply expectations, weather and operating constraints, LNG-driven fuel switching and higher oil-related production and transportation costs. 9. H2 2026 outlook: a pause before a possible Q4 recovery The H1 rally has stalled. Overseas buyers are pushing back on higher offers, and comfortable inventories have taken the urgency out of restocking. Absent a fresh catalyst, price action into H2 looks more like consolidation than a resumption of the uptrend. RKAB is the decisive H2 variable. Producers are seeking to maximise economically usable approvals, and SMM’s indicative scenario places total 2026 quota availability at around 730-750 Mt. This is an analytical scenario, not an announced official total, and it is conditional mainly on domestic coal requirements being met. DMO compliance, cargo quality and actual delivery capacity will determine how much approved volume can become exportable supply. Winter demand offers some support, but seasonality alone won't do much heavy lifting. A real rebound needs more than a calendar effect — tight RKAB discipline, a weather or logistics disruption, or restocking that outpaces the norm. If approvals land near the top of our range and get fully drawn down, the extra tonnage argues for a longer correction, not a shorter one. SMM believes that RKAB size is the swing factor for Q4 price direction The size of 2026 RKAB approvals is the single variable that decides which way H2 prices move. If approvals land large, quota issued near the top of the range and largely usable, it is expected the correction to continue. More approved tonnage means more coal eligible for export, and that supply overhang caps any price recovery through year-end. If approvals stay tight, and DMO enforcement holds firm, the exportable pool shrinks. Combine that with the seasonal demand pickup that typically accompanies Q4 rainy-season disruption to output and logistics, and the setup shifts toward a price recovery into year-end — tight supply meeting a seasonal demand bump, rather than seasonality doing the work on its own. In short: large RKAB → correction persists. Tight RKAB + strict DMO → year-end price recovery. The quota decision is the fork in the road; everything else (winter demand, rainy-season logistics) just determines how sharp the move is once that fork is decided.

On July 22, 2026, a delegation from SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM) visited Dong A Aluminum Company Limited and was warmly received by Deputy General Manager Cao Jiawang and Procurement Manager Chen Jiejun. The two sides held in-depth exchanges on topics including the development of Vietnam's aluminum price system, corporate procurement status and pricing models, trends in the aluminum processing industry, and cooperation for the SMM AICE 2026 Southeast Asia (Vietnam) Aluminum Conference. The SMM delegation included: Logan Lu , CEO of SMM Cason Lou , Director of Aluminium Processing, Marketing Department Lexi Chen , Key Account Manager for Overseas Information Sales Chin Khai Yuen , Senior Overseas Aluminium Analyst They were welcomed by key representatives from Dong A Aluminum, including: Cao Jiawang , Deputy General Manager Chen Jiejun , Procurement Manager Focusing on Procurement Practices: Coexistence of Multiple Pricing Models During the meeting, Dong A Aluminum elaborated on its current procurement status and price usage model. As one of the largest aluminum semis exporters in Vietnam, Dong A Aluminum's procurement system has both international and local characteristics, forming a flexible but complex pricing mechanism. Dong A Aluminum stated that the Vietnamese market currently lacks a locally recognized price reference system with international credibility, and enterprises face challenges such as inconsistent pricing benchmarks and scattered price information in actual operations, hoping that SMM can promote the standardization of Vietnam's aluminum price system. SMM introduced that since July 3, 2026, SMM has officially launched the Vietnam 6063 (non-homogenized) aluminum billet processing fee and SMM Vietnam 6063 (non-homogenized) aluminum billet price point, updated on a daily basis on each trading day. Meanwhile, SMM plans to officially release the SMM Vietnam aluminum price and elaborate on the methodology at the SMM AICE 2026 Southeast Asia (Vietnam) Aluminum Conference to be held in Ho Chi Minh City from November 19 to 20. Dong A Aluminum expressed high attention to this, believing that the launch of SMM Vietnam aluminum price is expected to provide enterprises with a more transparent and authoritative pricing reference, reduce transaction costs, and improve market efficiency. Discussing Industry Trends: Opportunities and Challenges in the Aluminum Processing Industry The two sides also exchanged views on the current status of Vietnam's aluminum processing industry. As a member of a Singapore-based holding group system, Dong A Aluminum has a total investment of over $200 million and an annual comprehensive capacity of 150,000 mt. In 2025, the company's Phase III expansion project was officially completed and put into operation, with six new aluminum extrusion lines installed, bringing the total number of extrusion lines to 25. The company has now established a wide sales network across the country, and its products are popular in multiple international markets such as the US, Australia, Canada, Europe, and Japan. Dong A Aluminum noted that with the commissioning of Vietnam's first aluminum project (Phase I with an annual capacity of 150,000 mt), the Vietnamese aluminum industry chain is accelerating to complete the last link. The increase in local primary aluminum supply will bring new procurement options and cost optimization opportunities for aluminum processing enterprises. At the same time, the imminent implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the adjustments to tariff policies in key export markets such as the US have also imposed higher requirements on enterprises' market layout and pricing strategies. The two sides also reached a consensus on cooperation for the SMM AICE 2026 Southeast Asia (Vietnam) Aluminum Industry Conference. Dong A Aluminum indicated that it would actively consider participating in the conference to jointly promote the internationalization of the aluminum market in Vietnam and Southeast Asia. This visit further deepened the communication and mutual trust between SMM and Vietnam's leading aluminum processing enterprises. It provided important first-hand information for market research and data collection on the Vietnamese aluminum pricing system and injected new momentum into the standardization of aluminum pricing in Vietnam. About Dong A Aluminum Dong A Aluminum Co., Ltd. is located in Tan Dan Industrial Park, Le Dai Hanh Ward, Haiphong City, Vietnam. It is an aluminum products producer with high industry reputation and relatively large production scale in Vietnam. The company is a member of a Singapore-based holding group, with a total investment exceeding $200 million and an annual comprehensive capacity of 150,000 mt. It is also one of the largest exporters of aluminum semis in Vietnam. The company owns a modern factory covering an area of nearly 120,000 m², equipped with intelligent and advanced production lines. It has established a fully automated, closed-loop production process covering aluminum ingot storage, melting and casting, extrusion, spraying, anodizing, wood grain treatment, deep processing, and finished product assembly. The company fully applies an intelligent ERP management system to achieve automated management of the entire production and operation process. Currently, the company has 25 extrusion lines with tonnages ranging from 600 mt to 4,500 mt. In 2025, the Phase III expansion project was officially completed and put into operation, successfully entering the list of Vietnam's Top 500 enterprises. With a development direction of becoming a comprehensive aluminum application solution provider, Dong A Aluminum's products are widely used in construction, home furnishings, electronics and power, solar energy, and other fields, and it continues to expand the application of aluminum semis in machinery equipment, precision parts, and the automotive industry. As of now, Dong A Aluminum has established an extensive sales network nationwide, with over 800 dealers, and actively exports to multiple international markets including the US, Australia, Canada, Europe, and Japan. Facing the future, Dong A Aluminum always adheres to the development philosophy of "innovation as the core, quality as the foundation, and service as the commitment," continuously optimizes its production system, upgrades its technological strength, and actively promotes Vietnam's aluminum industry onto the global industrial landscape. Join the Conversation at SMM AICE 2026 Connect with aluminum producers, processors, traders, industry associations, analysts, and decision-makers from across Southeast Asia. Explore the latest market developments, pricing trends, processing technologies, recycling opportunities, and new possibilities for regional cooperation. ? Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam ? November 19–20, 2026 Register now: bit.ly/AICE26 and secure your Super Early Bird Pass and save up to USD 200. Register before August 31, 2026.

SMM July 23 News: Metal markets: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper edged down, while SHFE aluminum rose 0.45%. SHFE lead rose 1.02%. SHFE zinc rose 1.47%. SHFE tin rose 0.27%. SHFE nickel rose 1.05%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.5%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.66%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 4.24%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.67%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.51%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 1.15%, rebar rose 0.52%, and HRC rose 0.46%. Stainless steel rose 0.61%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.3%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.4%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:39 AM, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.27%, LME aluminum rose 0.17%, LME lead rose 0.42%, LME zinc rose 0.75%, and LME tin edged up. LME nickel rose 0.58%. Precious metals: As of 11:39 AM, COMEX gold fell 0.46%, and COMEX silver fell 0.3%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.86%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.55%. In addition, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.1%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.38%. As of midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe route) contract rose 0.92% to 2,855 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 AM, July 23: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Amid recurring geopolitical risks, silver prices are consolidating around steady levels. End-of-month willingness to sell from smelters is strong, spot transactions are near parity, and overall demand remains weak... Macro Front China: [The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the Renewable Energy Development 15th Five-Year Plan] The plan states that by 2030, total renewable energy consumption is expected to reach approximately 1.8 billion mt of standard coal equivalent. By 2030, total installed renewable energy power generation capacity is expected to reach approximately 3.5 billion kW, with annual power generation of approximately 6 trillion kWh; total installed wind and solar power capacity is expected to exceed 2.8 billion kW, accounting for over 50% of total capacity, with annual power generation exceeding 4 trillion kWh and accounting for 30% of total generation. By 2030, the scale of non-electricity renewable energy utilization is expected to grow 1.5 times compared to 2025, equivalent to approximately 150 million mt of standard coal. By 2030, the average firm output of wind and solar PV (including source-side energy storage) nationwide is expected to reach 8% (around 11% for wind and 6% for PV), with wind and solar PV (including source-side energy storage) accounting for over 20% of electricity during the evening peak of summer and winter demand, an increase of approximately 10 percentage points. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, over 300 million kW of new reliable peak-shaving renewable energy capacity will be added. (from Wall Street News APP) [Beijing Expands Subsidized Products for the 2026 Consumer Goods Trade-in Program] The Beijing Municipal Commerce Bureau issued an announcement on expanding the list of subsidized products for the 2026 consumer goods trade-in program. After obtaining filing confirmation from the Ministry of Commerce, ten additional product categories will be included in the subsidy program. The relevant matters are hereby announced as follows: Subsidies will be provided to individual consumers in Beijing purchasing the following ten categories of products: smart door locks, smart cameras, smart robot vacuums (including smart floor scrubbers and smart vacuum cleaners), smart toilets (including smart toilet seat covers), digital cameras (including action cameras), smart earphones, whole-house smart hosts (including smart home servers and smart gateways), smart beds (including smart mattresses), smart electric wheelchairs, and embodied AI robots (including companion robots, robotic dogs, exoskeleton robots, and elderly care robots). For individual consumers purchasing the above smart home products (including elderly-friendly home products), the subsidy standard is 15% of the final selling price after all discounts, with each person eligible for one subsidized item per category, and the subsidy per item capped at 1,500 yuan. (from Wall Street News APP) [Guangdong: Industrial Robot Production Up 34.2% YoY in H1] According to the Guangdong Statistics Information Network, in H1, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size in the province increased by 5.8% YoY. By sector, the value-added of the mining sector was up 8.8% YoY, manufacturing up 5.4%, and power, heat, gas, and water supply up 8.9%. By industry, the value-added of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry was up 11.6% YoY, electrical machinery and equipment up 4.2%, and automobile manufacturing up 9.9%. By product, industrial robot production was up 34.2% YoY, and integrated circuits up 29.7%. (from Wall Street News APP) [PBOC Net Drains 422 Billion Yuan from Open Market Today] The PBOC conducted 204 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. A total of 626 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.14 to 100.98. On July 22 local time, US President Trump mentioned in a speech in Georgia that a federal government "shutdown" would occur in September due to differences between Republicans and Democrats over spending priorities. On July 21 local time, the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives passed a short-term spending bill that will fund federal government agencies through December 4, avoiding a government shutdown due to funding depletion before the November midterm elections. This temporary funding measure, also known as a "continuing resolution," will now be sent to the Senate for consideration. Republican leaders in the Senate are currently negotiating with Democrats and may propose their own short-term spending bill. If Congress fails to pass an appropriations bill in time, funding for most federal agencies and programs will expire at midnight on September 30, the end of the current fiscal year. (CCTV) As energy prices remain elevated, inflation expectations are heating up, and the market is focused on whether the upcoming Fed meeting next week will release clues about the future rate path. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 65.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 34.7%. The probability of rates remaining unchanged through September is 22%, a cumulative 25-bp hike is 54.9%, and a cumulative 50-bp hike is 23%. Other currencies: Mizuho Securities economist Yusuke Matsuo said Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to reiterate the stance of seeking further rate hikes at next week's press conference, but this is unlikely to reverse the yen's weakness. "The market has largely priced in the expectation that the BOJ will hike rates once every six months, so such comments alone are unlikely to push the yen significantly higher. Given that the market anticipates clarity on the timing and magnitude of the next rate hike, any stance interpreted as dovish could exacerbate the yen's weakness amid broad dollar strength." The market widely expects the BOJ to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1% at next week's meeting as it assesses the impact of the last rate hike. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today, data releases include China's June Swift renminbi share in global payments, Australia's June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the UK's July CBI industrial orders balance, the eurozone's ECB deposit facility rate as of July 23, the eurozone's ECB main refinancing rate as of July 23, Canada's May retail sales m/m, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18, and the eurozone's July consumer confidence index flash estimate. Also watch for: the ECB announces its interest rate decision; ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference; Google and Tesla reported Q2 earnings after the US market close on July 22. Crude oil: As of 11:39, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 1.88% and Brent up 1.57%. The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, and global energy markets are repricing for a protracted supply shock. Both the US and Iran have clearly signaled a refusal to negotiate, reducing expectations for a near-term ceasefire to virtually zero. The rise in oil prices is no longer driven purely by supply-demand logic; a geopolitical risk premium is becoming a structural anchor in the pricing system. (Wall Street CN) Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva noted in a report that if tensions continue to escalate, Brent crude could test $100/bbl. She said that while the market is currently bearing mainly logistical risks rather than actual crude losses, this distinction could quickly narrow if attacks persist. Sachdeva pointed out that the greatest risk for energy markets would be prolonged traffic disruptions in both the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz. She added that the market's flexibility in rerouting cargoes would be very limited at that point, and shipping disruptions could rapidly evolve into broader inflation concerns. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►