Against the backdrop of aluminum price premiums being given back and heightened expectations of decline, end-users' willingness to restock will remain suppressed. Industry profit margins are expected to stay low, and competition among enterprises will evolve deeply from "scale expansion" to "cost control and structural optimization."

[SMM Analysis] In H1, the overflow of global utility-scale energy storage long-term contracts intertwined with the growing pains of production line upgrades. This not only completely shattered the cyclical pattern of "retreat after rapid rise" in the energy storage market, but also directly triggered a structural shortage and a strong price recovery for 314Ah battery cells. Furthermore, driven by the looming cancellation of tax rebates at year-end, an even more intense wave of "export rush" is gaining momentum, potentially pushing the full-year battle between volume and price to its peak.

Production-wise, China's cumulative production of lithium battery separators from January to June was approximately 17.416 billion m², of which wet-process separators accounted for 15.005 billion m², or 86.16%, and dry-process separators accounted for 2.411 billion m², or 13.84%.

From a supply-demand balance perspective, China's lithium carbonate market exhibited a tight balance in H1 2026, with sellers and buyers continuously seeking new equilibrium points amid bargaining.

In the second half of last year, ahead of the halving of the NEV purchase tax rebate, ternary cathode orders climbed steadily, hitting record highs month after month. At that time, the market generally expected ternary demand growth for 2026 to be within 10%. But the actual results for the first half of this year came in much stronger. According to SMM, domestic ternary cathode production reached 493,000 metric tons in H1 2026, up 40% YoY, while global ternary cathode output reached 611,500 metric tons, up 24% . Meanwhile, CAAM data shows that NEV sales in China (including exports) reached 7.445 million units in H1 2026, up only 7% YoY, with domestic sales actually contracting by 13%. Given such modest growth in vehicle sales, where did the strong performance of ternary cathode come from? The answer lies in two key factors: a rising share of premium vehicle models and a rapid increase in battery capacity per vehicle . The halving of the purchase tax rebate has had a greater impact on low-priced vehicles. For A00-class models priced under RMB 50,000, the exemption was a major selling point—now, buyers face an additional tax payment of several thousand yuan, significantly eroding their cost advantage. In contrast, for mid-to-high-end models priced between RMB 200,000 and 300,000, the RMB 15,000 rebate cap still covers most of the tax, so the actual cost increase perceived by consumers is limited . At the same time, trade-in subsidy rules shifted from a fixed-amount structure to a tiered system based on the new vehicle price—higher-priced purchases yield subsidies closer to the cap, effectively steering consumer demand toward the premium segment . As a result, the share of B-segment, C-segment, and SUVs in China's NEV passenger car mix rose from 68.3% in 2025 to 73.6% in H1 2026—and these are precisely the models that predominantly use ternary battery cells. The rising share of premium models also directly lifted average battery capacity per vehicle . In May, the average battery capacity of BEV passenger cars reached 62 kWh, up 11% year-on-year, while PHEV passenger cars reached 37 kWh, up 37%. While automakers have been proactively increasing battery sizes to meet market demand, the more significant driver has been the compositional shift toward premium vehicles. This explains the apparent paradox: vehicle sales growth has been moderate, yet cathode material demand has surged—the key lies in the increase in battery capacity per unit . Overseas markets also contributed to the growth. European NEV sales rose approximately 30% year-on-year in the first half of the year, supported by local subsidy policies, high oil prices that favor NEVs, and the aggressive expansion of Chinese brands. Given that ternary batteries still account for more than 60% of Europe's NEV passenger car market , leading battery manufacturers serving the European market—such as CATL, EVE, AESC, and LGES—have maintained high procurement volumes of ternary cathode materials from China this year. Another notable feature of this year's production schedule has been its atypical seasonal pattern, largely influenced by raw material price volatility and policy shifts. On the raw material front, pricing between domestic ternary battery manufacturers and cathode producers is generally settled using a M-1 month metal price mechanism. This gives battery makers a strong incentive to build inventories ahead of anticipated price increases . For instance, in January, the SMM average monthly price of lithium hydroxide (coarse grains) surged to RMB 147,100 per ton, but the settlement price referenced the December price of RMB 88,800 per ton. This translated into a cost saving of more than RMB 26,000 per ton of cathode material, which is why production remained robust even during a traditionally slow month. A similar pattern played out in May, when the monthly average lithium hydroxide price rose by about RMB 20,000 per ton from the previous month, prompting another wave of restocking and driving cathode orders beyond expectations. On the policy side, the most significant impact came from the removal of the VAT rebate on ternary cathode exports, which pulled a large volume of export orders forward into Q1, breaking the typical seasonal slowdown. Domestic production in Q1 reached 236,000 metric tons, up 47% YoY. Notably, after the rebate was officially withdrawn, overseas orders did not drop sharply—Q2 still posted 34% YoY growth. This resilience can be attributed to two factors: first, overseas battery makers remain heavily reliant on Chinese cathode suppliers , who offer clear advantages in product quality, stable mass-production capabilities, and cost, making it difficult to switch suppliers in the short term. Second, overseas end-market demand remains solid , with popular models in Europe (Volkswagen ID series, BMW Neue Klasse, Renault, Hyundai IONIQ series, Tesla, etc.) and key models in Japan and Korea (Toyota, Hyundai, Kia, Tesla, etc.) continuing to rely on ternary chemistries. With order books full and procurement needs urgent, customers have little room to qualify new suppliers, which has only reinforced existing partnerships. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the upcoming removal of the VAT rebate on lithium battery exports next year is expected to bring some orders forward into 2026. However, the market has already priced this in, and battery manufacturers have ample time to plan their inventory strategies, so a concentrated surge similar to the one seen ahead of the ternary rebate cancellation is unlikely. The purchase tax rebate will remain at the halved level next year and will not be fully phased out until the year after, so there is no additional pull-forward effect for Q4 2026. With orders already exceeding expectations in the first half and battery makers continuing to build inventories, the traditional "Golden September-Silver October" peak may be less pronounced this year. Still, seasonal patterns persist, and the market's inherent restocking momentum remains, so Q4 still warrants attention. SMM currently forecasts: 1.02 million metric tons of domestic ternary cathode production for 2026, up 24% year-on-year; 240,000 metric tons overseas, down 2%; and a global total of 1.26 million metric tons, up 18% .

[SMM Analysis: Demand Drives Continuous Growth in Electrolyte Production in H1 2026, Prices in the Doldrums Due to Structural Disturbances in Raw Materials] According to SMM statistics, China's electrolyte production in H1 2026 was approximately 1.416 million mt, up about 56% YoY from H1 2025.

SMM Cobalt Morning Brief: This week, the cobalt industry chain continued to consolidate on a weak note overall. Refined cobalt traded around 380,000 yuan/mt. Although smelters slightly raised their offers, high inventory and weak end-use demand limited price recovery. The trading center of cobalt intermediate products moved lower. Cobalt sulphate ground lower on a weak note. Transactions of cobalt chloride and Co3O4 were sluggish. Cobalt powder remained under pressure due to the traditional off-season. The pullback in raw material prices dragged down ternary cathode precursors and ternary cathode materials. LCO remained stable with a weak bias. Future market trends still require attention on Q3 restocking and end-use demand recovery.

On July 7, 2026, the first batch of production line equipment was moved into the workshop of Glory Sunergy Global (Tieling)'s 10GWh solid-state battery AI intelligent manufacturing project, marking a decisive shift from infrastructure construction to equipment installation and commissioning. The project covers three business segments: system integration, material recycling, and semi-solid (solid-liquid hybrid) battery manufacturing.

[SMM Analysis] In the current ESS market, 314 Ah battery cells firmly hold a dominant position. Influenced by raw material inventory depletion and the lithium price linkage mechanism, their prices exhibit a complex game of "bottom lifting and top pressing"; while 500 Ah+ ultra-large capacity cells have been shipped, large-scale volume ramp-up is expected only in H2 2027.

This week, prices in China's second-life battery market edged up, with the LFP category leading the gains. Within LFP, commonly used energy storage specifications saw notable increases, while the small-capacity ternary category edged up in tandem and large-capacity products saw limited movement. The core drivers came from the transmission of previously high costs and the rise in new battery cell prices, collectively boosting second-life product prices, alongside sustained energy storage demand release supporting the LFP category. On the cost side, lithium carbonate pulled back this week while nickel and cobalt continued to grind lower, though this has not yet transmitted to the second-life battery market. On the demand side, energy storage was the key boost, small power applications remained sluggish, and backup power scenarios were generally stable. In the short term, the second-life battery market is expected to be stable with modest gains and limited upside, with LFP outperforming ternary. If lithium carbonate continues to pull back, it may exert some downward pressure on LFP prices.