[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Halted Their Decline, but Wait-and-See Sentiment Remained Unchanged; Rangebound Movement May Continue in the Short Term] Spot market, yesterday the overall ADC12 market continued to hold prices steady. Aluminum prices showed signs of halting their decline, but market sentiment recovered only limitedly, and enterprises generally chose to postpone price adjustments and mainly adopt a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, downstream orders did not improve significantly, and just-in-time procurement remained the main approach, with mediocre transaction performance. Against the backdrop of easing cost-side fluctuations and insufficient demand support, ADC12 prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and remain relatively stable in the short term, with relatively limited momentum for price adjustments. Further attention should still be paid to aluminum price trends and the recovery of end-use demand.

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

SMM News, March 25: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, but was slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Later in the morning, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center running higher than the previous trading day. Some sellers still did not quote prices, while some showed a notably stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Overall market buying sentiment was good. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Today, aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by the fear of further declines over the previous two days, traders and downstream processing enterprises in central China showed slightly improved buying sentiment today from the previous day, but overall transactions had not yet returned to a fully active state, and buyers tended to purchase at wider discounts. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 20 yuan to a premium of 10 yuan against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong being the main source of destocking. In the short term, aluminum ingot continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal inventory buildup. Supported by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

The latest customs data showed that in February 2026, China’s imports of unwrought silver ingots with a purity of no less than 99.99% reached 206.76 mt, up 499% MoM and surging 5,910% YoY to a multi-year high. The rare opening of the import window drove significant changes in the supply-demand pattern of the domestic silver ingot market.

[SMM Daily Chrome Commentary: Cost Support Kept Offers Firm, with Limited Recent Market Fluctuations] March 25, 2026: Chrome ore quotations saw no adjustment, while low- and micro-carbon ferrochrome prices were raised somewhat...

Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

SMM News, March 24: Aluminum ingot: On March 24, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,440, up 30, at a discount of 170 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt) The SHFE aluminum 04 contract generally stabilized today. Supported by aluminum prices halting their decline and edging up slightly, the South China spot market stabilized and improved, and buyers generally showed good purchasing sentiment today. Spot prices were significantly below the monthly average price, and sellers firmly held prices firm. However, amid weekend inventory buildup and ample circulating cargo, overall support for firm prices was clearly constrained under high inventory pressure. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated at premiums of -175 yuan/mt to -165 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

Dalian iron ore was generally weak today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 806.5 yuan/mt, down 1.83% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 10-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders actively offered quotes, while steel mills mainly made inquiries and purchases based on rigid demand, with cautious inquiries; overall, the spot market trading atmosphere was average. According to the latest SMM survey data, hot metal daily average production reached 2.4049 million mt this week, an increase of 15,000 mt WoW, with demand showing a steady improvement. In terms of supply, some iron ore originally planned for shipment to the Middle East began to be redirected to the Chinese market, including some ore grades used for direct reduced iron (DRI), increasing market supply options and putting some pressure on prices. From a macro perspective, the situation in the Middle East remained tense, and the escalation of war triggered a sharp rise in energy prices, driving up global inflationary pressure. Expectations for US dollar interest rate cuts weakened significantly, leading to a certain pullback in commodity prices, including iron ore prices. Overall, iron ore prices faced strong resistance in the short term, but downside room was limited, and the market is expected to continue moving in a sideways range.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at the intraday low of 82,550 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward in early trading. After the daytime session opened, the center of copper prices surged in a straight line to a high of 85,250 yuan/mt, then moved in wide swings and finally closed at 84,610 yuan/mt, up 1.22%. Open interest stood at 4,302 lots, down 643 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 3,695 lots, indicating bears reduced positions. On the macro front, the US Department of Justice admitted it lacked evidence for its investigation into Powell, and his term is expected to be extended; coupled with renewed market expectations for easing tensions in the Middle East and somewhat alleviated inflation concerns, the US dollar weakened, and multiple positive factors jointly boosted copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, arrivals of both domestic and imported cargoes were steady, with ample market circulation; on the demand side, affected by rising copper prices, downstream purchasing sentiment pulled back, with procurement maintained only for rigid demand. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 95,550 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 84,610 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 95,609 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was -59, with the spread inverting again.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, with costs remaining high, most coke producers saw wider losses and began to push for a coke price hike, but losses remained within an acceptable range, and coke production stayed stable. On the demand side, steel trading improved somewhat, steel mills became more willing to produce, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, further boosting rigid demand for coke. Overall, coke fundamentals shifted toward tightness, but steel mills showed only average acceptance of higher coke prices, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.