Today, DCE iron ore futures started weak and strengthened later, with contract I2609 eventually closing at 746 yuan/mt, up 0.67% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were unchanged from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, and steel mills purchased as needed. Spot trading volumes were mediocre as of now. In the short term, the iron ore supply side continues to ease. According to SMM data, China's iron ore port arrivals reached 29.33 million mt last week, up 5.47% WoW and 5.94% YoY. Meanwhile, SMM's total iron ore inventory across 35 ports reached approximately 148 million mt based on the latest data, with overall destocking beginning to slow down. As downstream demand weakens, pressure on the iron ore supply side is gradually emerging, continuing to cap the price ceiling. Meanwhile, bullish and bearish rumors are intertwined in the news, which may drive iron ore prices to edge up slightly in the near term. Taking all factors into account, the market may continue its sideways consolidation pattern in the near term. [SMM Steel]

SMM, June 29: As of Monday, June 29, copper inventories across major Chinese regions edged down 0.07 mt WoW from last Monday and increased 1,400 mt from last Thursday, bringing total inventories to 207,400 mt. Total inventories rose 81,300 mt compared to 126,100 mt in the same period last year, with mixed regional performances. In detail, Shanghai saw higher port arrivals of imported copper, but the pullback in copper prices spurred downstream procurement, and faster warehouse withdrawals led to a slight inventory decline. Jiangsu's end-use consumption recovered concurrently, sustaining inventory destocking. Guangdong, meanwhile, showed weak consumption and concentrated arrivals, resulting in a notable regional inventory buildup. Market outlook: In the near term, arrivals of imported and domestic copper are expected to increase, keeping overall spot supply ample. After copper prices consolidated higher, downstream wait-and-see sentiment re-emerged. Our survey indicates that the operating rate of copper cathode rod producers is expected to rise to 67.77% this week, up 2.37 percentage points WoW. Based on the combined supply-demand picture—ample supply and cautious demand—China's social inventory of copper cathode is expected to edge up next week.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, on the inventory front, SMM data shows that Shanghai social inventory stood at 134,200 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu inventory stood at 41,200 mt, down 900 mt WoW. Although some imported cargo arrived at ports, overall warehouse withdrawals last week were good, and inventory continued a slight destocking trend, providing some support for spot discounts. Supplier side, the month-end selling pressure has been largely released, and market shipments have returned to normal pace. Supplier quotations were relatively stable during the day, showing no signs of significant downward adjustments. Moreover, some suppliers are bullish on the premiums outlook, and their willingness to hold prices firm has strengthened. From the invoice structure, cargoes with invoices dated this month remain relatively tight, with a certain price spread maintained between current-month and next-month invoices. Overall, with the end of month-end selling, inventory destocking, and suppliers' firm price stance, the overall discount center of Shanghai spot copper against the 2607 contract is expected to edge up further tomorrow.

【SMM Copper Inventory Flash】National mainstream copper cathode inventories recorded 207,400 mt, up 1,400 mt WoW from last Thursday, with regional trends diverging. Shanghai and Jiangsu continued destocking, supported by a pullback in copper prices and recovering downstream demand; in Guangdong, weak end-use demand, combined with a notable increase in arrivals, led to a sharp inventory buildup.

On June 29, the warrant average price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day, settling at $68/mt (price range $64-72/mt); the B/L average price remained flat from the previous trading day, settling at $69/mt (price range $64-74/mt); the EQ copper (CIF B/L) average price rose $3/mt from the previous trading day, settling at $41/mt (price range $37-45/mt), with quotes referencing arrivals in early July. During the day, the SHFE/LME price ratio weakened, and with trading relatively concentrated last week, today's market activity was sluggish, with only a very few spot cargo offers.

SMM, June 29: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 20 yuan/mt, down by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down by 70 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down by 70 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, up by 535 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,220 yuan/mt, up by 525 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to increase after the weekend, marking seven consecutive trading days of gains, mainly driven by increased arrivals and sluggish consumption. Approaching the mid-year settlement, some suppliers were eager to monetize, which, combined with soft consumption, led to a sharp decline in premiums today. In Guangdong, purchasing sentiment for copper cathode stood at 2.52, down by 0.18 from the previous trading day, while selling sentiment was 2.93, up by 0.03 (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database). Overall, as the mid-year settlement approached, suppliers actively lowered prices to sell, and spot trades remained sluggish.

[Destocking Accelerates to Provide Support, Export Concerns Limit Rebound Room] The US Fed's hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. The Middle East geopolitical situation has been somewhat volatile but shows no signs of deterioration. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

I. Japan Market This week, Japan MJP aluminum ingot spot premiums showed a continuous downtrend, with the average price at $384/mt on June 19 pulling back to $380/mt by June 26. Although premiums kept dipping, some traders lowered their offers proactively while others held prices firm. The demand side exhibited restocking for rigid demand, with downstream enterprises purchasing as needed. Short-term restocking activity was moderate, but there was no large-scale concentrated stockpiling, and overall purchasing volume was mild. Currently, the market trading pace is slowing down, spot lacks a trend-driven upward driver in the short term, and premiums follow the futures to stay in the doldrums. II. US Market This week, US Midwest DDP aluminum spot premiums edged up, from an average of $110.2/mt on June 19 to $110.35/mt this Friday. US market fundamentals still provided support: two major demand-side increases were being released, with aluminum semis demand for AI computing data centers surging, coupled with the concentrated commissioning of new production lines at NEV manufacturers such as Tesla, steadily boosting aluminum consumption for automotive lightweighting, keeping the digestion pace of domestic aluminum ingots high. The supply side faced constraints, with Middle East geopolitical disturbances disrupting ocean shipments of aluminum ingots, arrivals growth from outside China consistently lagging downstream demand growth, and domestic inventory continuing to destock, supporting premiums to stay high. However, the pressure logic for the outlook is gradually emerging: LME aluminum prices have already fallen to a staged low, cross-regional arbitrage windows remain open, and arrivals of aluminum ingots flowing into the US market will gradually increase. Coupled with this week’s premiums having stopped rising and weakened slightly, the tight supply-demand situation will marginally ease as external supply replenishes. It is anticipated that US spot premiums will stay high but face pressure going forward, with upside room essentially capped and a pullback adjustment possible. III. Thailand Market This week, Thailand spot premiums rose from $320/mt last Friday to $323/mt this Friday. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, some traders raised their offers. However, the upside momentum was weak, and the trading atmosphere remained sluggish. Local downstream users only maintained a hand-to-mouth purchase pattern for rigid demand, with low willingness for large-scale stockpiling. Meanwhile, continuous arrivals of aluminum semis exports from China, with large volumes of low-priced fabricated products flowing into the Southeast Asian end-use markets, directly diverted import orders for primary aluminum ingots and significantly squeezed local aluminum demand. [Data source statement: Other than publicly available information, all data are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are processed by SMM. For reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM

Zimbabwe is actively considering using its abundant mineral resources to provide financing support for road and railway construction projects in cooperation with China through "resource-linked debt instruments," Finance Minister Ncube Mthuli disclosed on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Dalian. This model aims to use future revenue from natural resources as loan collateral to address the huge funding gap in infrastructure construction. Ncube Mthuli said that Zimbabwe has held preliminary discussions with China Railway Group on such financing arrangements. He told reporters: "We have explored debt instruments linked to resources and hope to use these instruments in the future to support infrastructure development, especially in the road and railway sectors." According to the plan, the Zimbabwean side will assess project costs, toll revenue potential, and the payback period for the required resource investments to determine the specific scale of resource collateral and repayment path. As Africa's largest lithium producer, Zimbabwe possesses rich mineral resources, but its infrastructure has lagged severely due to prolonged economic mismanagement and political instability. The African Development Bank estimates that the country requires approximately $34 billion to complete the modernization of its transport and logistics networks. The proposed resource-for-infrastructure scheme is similar in model to the $7 billion Sicomines copper-cobalt joint venture between the DRC and Chinese enterprises. As early as September 2025, Zimbabwe's president had promoted a railway upgrade cooperation plan worth $533 million during a meeting with senior officials of China Railway Group in Beijing. The project is to be implemented by Chuantie International, a subsidiary of China Railway with extensive experience in Africa. The scope of works includes the repair and reinforcement of existing lines and bridges, modernization of signaling systems, procurement of 17 locomotives and 209 freight cars, construction of five new stations, and the key trunk line project connecting Beitbridge and Harare. This trunk line leads directly to South Africa and serves as an important strategic corridor for Zimbabwe's foreign trade. Currently, the project's financing method and the official signing date are still under final negotiation. Zimbabwe's railway network was built during the colonial era and its annual freight volume once reached 12 million mt in the 1990s. However, decades of underinvestment, aging equipment, and foreign exchange shortages have caused the railway infrastructure to deteriorate continuously. Currently, annual freight volume has fallen to less than 3 million mt, representing only 15% of the historical peak. Many lines are overgrown with weeds, and a large number of locomotives and rolling stock are out of service, directly weakening the transport capacity for bulk commodities such as lithium, chrome ore, and coal to ports in Mozambique and South Africa. As a result, Chinese mining enterprises investing in Zimbabwe, such as Tsingshan Holding Group, Sinosteel Group, and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, are all facing bottlenecks in product shipments. The decline of the railway system has shifted a large volume of freight to roads, leading to a surge in the number of heavy trucks, which in turn exacerbates road congestion, traffic accidents, and pavement damage, creating a vicious cycle. To address this, the National Railways of Zimbabwe has incorporated this railway upgrade into a broader modernization framework and collaborated with 11 private enterprises. Among them, South Africa's Grindrod, through its subsidiary Beitbridge-Bulawayo Railway, has deployed 3 locomotives and 150 wagons to relieve current transport pressure. Meanwhile, the Zimbabwean side is also exploring cooperation with the University of Zimbabwe, leveraging the university's innovation center for localized railway technology R&D and talent cultivation to build capacity for long-term operations. Analysts point out that if this railway upgrade is successfully implemented, it will not only fully restore Zimbabwe's decaying railway network but also provide critical logistical support for the country to achieve its $12 billion mining target. It will also further deepen the strategic positioning of Chinese-funded enterprises in Zimbabwe's mining and infrastructure sectors. According to market dynamics, in recent years, especially this year, lithium ore arrivals from Zimbabwe have been continuously hampered, with insufficient inland transport capacity being one of the major bottlenecks constraining the smooth arrival of goods. With the implementation of the relevant logistics system upgrades, this situation is expected to be effectively alleviated, significantly improving the transport efficiency of lithium materials, thereby injecting solid strength into stabilizing the global supply of lithium resources. Source: Mining, compiled by SMM.

[SMM Aluminum Bulletin] Concentrated maintenance-driven production cuts at multiple overseas refineries and persistently rising ocean freight rates jointly tightened the supply of spot coke outside China significantly. This drove up external purchase costs for traders sharply and prompted domestic buyers to proactively slow down their procurement pace, directly causing a sharp pullback in May port arrivals and synchronous price spikes. At this stage, the maintenance cycle at major overseas refineries has yet to conclude, making the strong overseas spot market difficult to reverse in the short term. Import costs for China are likely to fluctuate at highs. SMM forecasts that petroleum coke port arrivals may see a slight recovery in June but will struggle to return to previous highs.