SMM Analysis: SMM's February 2026 blister copper RCs in sourth China were quoted at 2,200-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average of 2,350 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt MoM...

SMM Analysis: In May 2025, blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 600-800 yuan/mt, with an average of 700 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt MoM. Blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 650-850 yuan/mt, with an average of 750 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM...

[SMM Analysis: Limited Upside Potential for Copper Anode RCs Amidst Tight Supply, Short-Term Market Structure Unlikely to Change] In May 2025, domestic blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 600-800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 700 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt MoM. Domestic blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 650-850 yuan/mt, with an average price of 750 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM...

"The furnace was ignited on April 2, the first batch of copper anode was produced on April 12, the first batch of anode plates was sold on April 15, the key milestone of 400 mt/day was surpassed on April 19, and the phase peak of 534 mt/day was achieved on April 24..." In the striving spring of April 2025, Yimen Copper Industry welcomed the completion of the energy-saving and emission-reduction project for anode refining, marking a historic moment of successful one-time load test. This event signified the end of the 30-year era of blister copper products and the beginning of the anode copper era for industrial transformation and upgrading. The capacity, quality, added value, and comprehensive utilization rate of copper products have significantly improved, with production processes becoming more environmentally friendly, energy-efficient, and low-carbon. The journey from blueprint to realization of Yimen Copper Industry's anode refining energy-saving and emission-reduction project not only embodies the wisdom and sweat of hundreds of builders but also carries the persistent pursuit of sustainable development by a 30-year-old smelter. This is a tough battle for technological upgrade, a practice of environmental protection concepts, and a touching ode to unity, cooperation, and hard struggle. Project Initiation: The Fearless "Pioneer" Since the operation of the 100,000 mt blister copper environmental protection and efficient technological transformation project on April 16, 2017, Yimen Copper Industry has seen continuous growth in production and profits, leveraging its advantages in "processing low-grade and miscellaneous materials" in production processes. Facing the favorable development situation, Yimen Copper Industry did not rest on its laurels but focused on the long-term development of the enterprise, deeply analyzed its shortcomings, and actively met challenges. Considering the small production capacity, short industry chain, weak risk resistance, environmental risks in the blister copper casting process, the need for remelting of blister copper ingots in the next process, and severe heat energy waste, the company initiated the anode refining energy-saving and emission-reduction project and incorporated it into the enterprise's "14th Five-Year Plan" for follow-up and implementation. Through scientific demonstration, the construction content of Yimen Copper Industry's anode refining energy-saving and emission-reduction project includes the construction of two 180 mt anode furnaces and one set of 70 mt/h double disc casting system, along with the improvement of auxiliary facilities such as flue gas treatment systems, water supply and drainage systems, and power supply and distribution systems. After the completion of the project, blister copper will be purified into anode copper, further compensating for the short industry chain, achieving energy-saving and emission reduction, promoting green circular development, enhancing the core competitiveness of the enterprise, and embarking on a path of sustainable development. In advancing the project, great efforts were made in feasibility studies, energy assessments, and environmental impact assessments. The cadres and employees always kept the project construction goals in mind, worked overtime to perfect the approval documents for each link, and vigorously pushed forward the pre-construction preparations. With the coordination and promotion of the parent company and local government, and the hard work of the project personnel, the project received the environmental impact assessment approval on November 20, 2024. Construction: Capable and Resilient "Strivers" On December 30, 2024, the anode refining energy-saving and emission reduction project of Yimen Copper Industry received approval to commence and started smoothly, with a construction period of six months. Thanks to thorough preparation in advance, the project entered a "decisive battle" state right from the start. As construction fully unfolded, challenges arose one after another. The first issue was the difficulty in maneuvering lifting equipment due to the relatively narrow site, along with the complexity of managing safety for multiple overlapping operations. Additionally, the tight schedule and heavy workload, compounded by the fact that the construction period spanned the Chinese New Year holiday, led to significant personnel turnover and disruptions in equipment transportation. The construction proceeded concurrently with ongoing production, creating a "dual-front" operation that posed significant on-site management difficulties. In the face of these challenges, the cadres and employees of Yimen Copper Industry and the contractors treated the construction site as their home, working, eating, and often staying there around the clock. Overtime became the norm, and they willingly gave up holidays and rest days, working in shifts 24/7, writing many touching stories of dedication. The contractor's workers showed great effort, like tireless "spiders," climbing cylindrical furnaces and towering beams, battling at various work sites, building a steel fortress of the project with their hard work and sweat. Yimen Copper Industry saw the full participation of its veteran, middle-aged, and young staff. Deputy Chief Engineer Qi Yonghui and Project Technical Director Feng Gao, both born in the 1970s, arrived early every morning and left late at night, steadfastly overseeing safety on the project site. Despite being in their 50s, they demonstrated strong will and rigorous conduct, setting an example for the younger generation. Qian Hongsen, head of the Equipment and Energy Department, born in the 1980s, was involved in the entire process from project initiation, approval, construction, to commissioning. He worked tirelessly, much like an indefatigable perpetual motion machine, dedicating himself to the project. Fu Duyi, a mid-level manager born in the 1990s, threw himself into the work with the zeal of a "workaholic." He followed up on the project progress daily, often working until three or four in the morning, and then reporting to work on time the next day. His disheveled hair, a sign of frequent late nights, bore witness to his dedication. Even when his wife needed prenatal check-ups, he missed them, feeling guilty but never backing down. The company's Party, labor union, and youth league organizations all pitched in. The "Zhongtong Pioneer" Party member task forces of each branch planted the Party flag on the front lines of the project, participating in urgent and challenging tasks such as cable laying and safety supervision alongside the contractors. The labor union provided food and drinks, showing deep care for the workers toiling in high temperatures. Young members of the Communist Youth League, wearing "volunteer red," helped move materials and clean the environment, contributing their youthful sweat to the project. At the construction site, touching stories were abundant, embodying Yimen Copper Industry's team culture of "being together, heart and soul, and working together," forming a powerful force driving the safe and efficient advancement of the project. After all staff worked day and night, the anode furnace was started for preheating on April 2. On April 10, the project was completed in exactly 100 days, 80 days ahead of schedule. Trial Production: The "Light Chasers" of Dedication and Contribution After one day of on-site integration, commissioning, and debugging, at 1:56 a.m. on April 12, as the first batch of molten copper was successfully poured into the sizzling 180t anode copper mold, the project's load test with material feeding was a success. At 7:36 p.m. on April 12, with the completion of heating and commissioning of the backend process, Yimen Copper produced its first batch of anode copper. During the days of trial production and debugging, the on-site staff were excited, full of anticipation, and faced immense hardships. To ensure the success of the load test, Yu Xiaolv, the factory director of the pyrometallurgy plant, and Ding Yonghua, the operations manager, led the operations team to work continuously for three days and nights, taking only short naps when exhausted. At the production debugging site, several newly recruited college graduates from the "post-90s" and "post-00s" generations followed the on-site mentors, busy with various tasks—sometimes lifting and installing the guide chutes, sometimes cleaning the copper molds, and sometimes moving heavy objects on site. Despite blisters forming on their hands, they persevered. They learned the key points of production technology from their mentors while working, actively immersing themselves in the project's "crucible." At this moment, "melting top-tier technology and refining top-tier talents" became tangible. The trial production and debugging work received strong support from the parent company and sister units. Southwest Copper, Southeast Copper, and others dispatched capable personnel to provide on-site support. They debugged equipment while mentoring apprentices, working tirelessly from dawn to dusk, silently contributing their efforts and expertise. Southwest Copper and Yunnan Zhongse Nonferrous Metals provided strong support to Yimen Copper in cultivating talents for anode copper smelting. As the debugging work progressed, the quality and daily production of Yimen Copper's anode copper continued to improve. Since April 15, multiple batches of anode copper have been delivered, with the products receiving positive feedback and favour from downstream enterprises. Since the load test of the entire project began, there have been no unplanned shutdowns. Daily copper production has continued to rise, demonstrating a safe, stable, rapid construction, smooth commissioning, and effective outcome. For many smelters that have already achieved cathode copper production, anode copper production is merely a front-end process. However, for Yimen Copper, which has been in operation for 30 years, it represents not only a product upgrade but also the culmination of 30 years of steady and unremitting efforts, serving as the cornerstone for the company's long-term development. Looking back at Yimen Copper, since the production of its first batch of blister copper on October 29, 1995, it has undergone multiple technological transformations. The annual production capacity of copper products has increased from 10,000 mt to 50,000 mt, 100,000 mt, and now 150,000 mt. Although the scale of improvement may seem relatively small, each step has been taken with solid determination. Each step represents Yimen Copper's commitment to green and low-carbon development, a vivid practice of promoting new quality productive forces, and a testament to the hard work and dedication of Yimen Copper's cadres and employees in creating happiness through their efforts.

In summary, supported by April's consumption, the low inventory situation in May supports the nearby month structure and premiums. However, the market is concerned that export orders may decline from late May to late June due to tariff uncertainties, affecting the continuity and enthusiasm of end-user procurement. As May progresses, while supply issues persist, whether consumption can continue to improve or even maintain remains to be seen. Currently, the SHFE copper 2505-2506 contract spread is expected to widen to 500 yuan/mt before delivery, with the deferred month structure still expected to continue widening.

[SMM Analysis] Overall, supported by April consumption, the low inventory situation in May is currently bolstering the near-month structure and premium. However, the market is concerned that from late May to late June, tariff uncertainties may cause a decline in export orders, thereby affecting the continuity and enthusiasm of end-user procurement. After entering May, while supply issues persist, it remains to be seen whether consumption can continue to improve or even maintain its current level. Currently, the price spread between the SHFE copper 2505 and 2506 contracts is expected to widen to 500 yuan/mt before delivery, and the backwardation structure in the deferred months is still expected to continue widening.

【SMM Analysis: Copper Raw Material Supply Falls Short of Expectations, Leading to Continued Depletion of Copper Anode Inventories】This week, the General Administration of Customs released the March copper concentrate import data. In March 2025, copper concentrate imports reached 2.394 million mt, up 2.7% YoY. From January to March 2025, China's cumulative copper concentrate imports totaled 7.108 million mt. Additionally, considering the domestic copper concentrate supply from January to March, the copper anode imports from January to February, the expected copper anode imports in March, the copper scrap imports from January to February, and the expected copper scrap imports in March, it appears that the copper raw material supply is inconsistent with SMM's cumulative copper cathode production of 3.194 million mt from January to March. In other words, both imported and domestic copper concentrate supplies fell short of expectations, imported copper anode did not exceed expectations, and copper scrap smelting volume also failed to provide sufficient support, yet copper cathode production remained consistently high.

Recovery Trend May Begin Since the beginning of this year, the global macro market has been complex, with escalating trade frictions, fluctuating US economic data, and the emergence of peace talks in geopolitical conflicts, all of which have had inconsistent impacts on copper prices. After the unexpected implementation of the US "reciprocal tariffs" policy, short-term market concerns quickly gathered. Considering that subsequent tariff disputes are still ongoing, the bearish impact of the US "reciprocal tariffs" seems to have reached its limit and may have been excessively "overdrawn." Coupled with the uncertainty of US tariffs on copper, the bearish impact of tariff concerns is expected to gradually weaken. Since the beginning of this year, copper prices have continued to fluctuate upward, with multiple bullish factors sequentially driving copper prices. At the start of the new year, the US dollar remained strong at high levels but did not significantly suppress copper prices. On the contrary, amid concerns that the US might impose tariffs on non-ferrous metals, copper prices rose steadily. Driven by risk aversion, a weakening US dollar, and optimism in gold purchases, overseas gold prices continued to hit record highs, leading to a certain degree of follow-up rise in copper prices in February. Subsequently, Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced maintenance, sparking concerns about supply, and copper prices accelerated their rise in March. By the end of March, the most-traded SHFE copper futures contract had risen by more than 10% compared to the end of 2024, and COMEX copper futures prices performed even better under the influence of tariff concerns. However, with the implementation of the US "reciprocal tariffs," the market sentiment changed abruptly, and copper prices nearly wiped out all their gains for the year in just two trading days around the Qingming Festival. Macro Uncertainties Persist, Financial Attributes Weaken Since the beginning of this year, the global macro market has been complex, with escalating trade frictions, fluctuating US economic data, and the emergence of peace talks in geopolitical conflicts, all of which have had inconsistent impacts on copper prices. In Q1, the US Fed held two interest rate meetings, one at the end of January and the other in mid-to-late February, neither of which implemented an interest rate cut, in line with market expectations. On February 1, US time, the US announced a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, along with an additional 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on energy resources from Canada, marking a new phase of tariff concerns. Geopolitically, on February 12, US time, the US spoke with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, hoping to initiate negotiations aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which seemed to bring a glimmer of hope for peace talks in the prolonged conflict. In Q2, the US Fed will hold interest rate meetings in early May and mid-June, with the June meeting set to release economic outlooks and dot plots. Although the trade friction initiated by the US continues, its impact in Q2 may be more reflected in global macroeconomic data. The macro impact on copper prices may follow this rhythm, initially pressuring copper prices due to economic data concerns, followed by a certain boost as interest rate cut expectations recover. After the US "reciprocal tariffs" exceeded market expectations, short-term market concerns quickly gathered. Considering that subsequent tariff disputes are still ongoing, the bearish impact of the US "reciprocal tariffs" seems to have reached its limit and may have been excessively "overdrawn." Coupled with the uncertainty of US tariffs on copper, the bearish impact of tariff concerns is expected to gradually weaken. Supply Pressure Eases, Price Support Remains In Q1, overseas mines operated smoothly overall, but the supply tension of copper concentrates due to smelting capacity expansion and the mining cycle remained prominent. According to SMM data, imported copper concentrate TCs turned negative in late January and continued to weaken. By the week of March 21, imported copper concentrate TCs were reported at -$22.88/mt, down nearly $30/mt from $6.91/mt at the end of last year. Additionally, based on institutional surveys, seven domestic smelters have maintenance plans in Q2, with the scale of maintenance expanding compared to Q1, and TCs are expected to stop falling and rebound in Q2. In Q1, the tax-included price spread between domestic refined copper and copper scrap rose twice, possibly related to the rise in copper futures prices. In January, the slow circulation of domestic copper scrap due to the Chinese New Year once pushed the price spread between refined copper and copper scrap to over 3,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the "reverse invoicing" issue continues to affect the industry, with more copper scrap raw materials flowing into anode plates, and anode copper supply is expected to continue recovering in Q2, alleviating some of the raw material supply pressure on domestic smelters. According to institutional surveys of domestic smelters' maintenance plans, there was less maintenance in Q1, with only a few smelters scheduling maintenance in January and March. Meanwhile, the operating rate of copper smelters remained around 82%, and the tight ore supply has put some pressure on domestic smelters. The survey shows that from April to June, multiple smelters have maintenance plans, and based on estimates of refined copper production, the impact of maintenance is mainly concentrated in April and May. Different Demand Rhythms, Steady Consumption Boost This year, the early Chinese New Year led to weaker production efforts by wire and cable enterprises in January, but production improved significantly in February. This production rhythm differs from the usual pattern of a rebound in operating rates in February in previous years. Based on the overall performance of wire and cable enterprises from January to February and SMM's forecast for March operating rates, the overall production performance of wire and cable enterprises in Q1 was weaker than in the same period in previous years. Domestic air conditioning production has been active again this cold season, with significant production increases starting in September last year, a month earlier than usual, and sales performance has also been impressive. In the automotive sector, data shows that domestic car production from January to February was generally better than in previous years, with NEV production continuing to grow steadily and sales significantly outperforming production. The inhibitory effect of high copper prices on end-users is expected to continue in Q2, and the rebound in wire and cable consumption is unlikely to effectively form a new consumption boost. The seasonal rebound effect in the automotive industry persists, but Q2 is the contraction period for air conditioning production, and overall demand boost is expected to remain steady. In summary, copper prices are unlikely to form a sustained downward trend, and a recovery trend is about to begin. (Source: Futures Daily) To learn more about the dynamics of the copper industry chain, you are welcome to attend the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo, hosted by SMM, in Nanchang, Jiangxi, from April 22-25, 2025. CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo ~ Over 3,000 industry elites, representatives from upstream and downstream enterprises in the copper industry chain, government leaders, industry associations, third-party equipment, logistics and warehousing, and academic experts will gather together. The conference covers the entire copper industry chain, including mining, smelting, copper processing, trade, recycling, and end-use applications. At the conference, over 100 exhibitors will showcase the latest copper processing and smelting equipment, high-quality raw material suppliers, and new copper-based materials, highlighting the innovation and vitality of the copper industry. The conference features a variety of exciting activities: the main forum focuses on global copper market trends, raw material supply, policy impacts, and market directions. Sub-forums delve into industry hot topics such as electrical power transmission and distribution, recycled copper, new copper-based materials, hardware and plumbing, and ESS. During the conference, there will also be a two-day field trip to 12 representative enterprises in the copper industry, with a cumulative capacity of 1 million mt, to share cutting-edge technologies and valuable experiences, helping to upgrade the copper industry chain and promote high-quality industry development. CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo Helping you grasp the industry pulse, expand your network, and seek business opportunities! SMM cordially invites you to join us in Nanchang, Jiangxi, from April 22-25, to gather in the new era of copper and jointly plan for new development!

[SMM Analysis: 2025 Benchmark for Imported Blister Copper Long-Term Contract Finalised, Falling Below Triple Digits for the First Time in Recent Years] According to SMM, CNMC International Trading Co. Ltd. and Jiangxi Copper Corporation (JCC) reached an agreement on the 2025 CIF blister copper RC benchmark on the afternoon of December 31, 2024, Beijing time, setting it at $95/mt. This RC is $21/mt lower than this year's $116/mt, marking the first time in recent years that it has fallen below triple digits...

[SMM Analysis: A slight increase in anode copper imports in August, with growing demand from miscellaneous products] According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 75,900 tonnes of anode copper in August 2024, representing a month-on-month increase of 7.35% and a year-on-year increase of 9.34%; cumulative anode copper imports from January to August 2024 totaled 610,900 tonnes, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 14.09%...