The overseas secondary aluminum market remained under pressure this week as the continued pullback in LME aluminum gradually filtered through to Southeast Asian scrap and ADC12 prices. Most scrap grades in Malaysia and Thailand moved lower, although some premium-grade materials remained relatively resilient due to tight availability. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian ADC12 prices continued to soften amid sluggish automotive and die-casting demand. Rising energy costs in Thailand, however, are providing some support to producers’ cost bases, leaving the market caught between weak downstream demand and elevated production costs. Southeast Asia Scrap Aluminum Prices Fall, but Premium Grades Remain Resilient Southeast Asian aluminum scrap prices generally moved lower this week. In Malaysia, Talon averaged MYR 13,250/mt (approximately $3,280/mt) , down 3.64% week-on-week. Tense fell to $2,650/mt , down 4.50% WoW. In contrast, used beverage cans (UBC) edged higher to MYR 10,125/mt (approximately $2,507/mt) , up 0.75% WoW. In Thailand, Talon declined to THB 109,000/mt (approximately $3,335/mt) , down 1.36% WoW, while UBC fell to THB 82,000/mt (approximately $2,510/mt) , down 2.38% WoW. As LME aluminum continued to retreat from its recent highs, buyers lowered their target prices and became increasingly cautious about restocking. Some scrap grades that had previously resisted the decline began to catch up with the broader market, with Malaysian Tense recording the largest weekly decline among the assessed grades. However, the performance of Malaysian UBC highlights the continued divergence between different scrap categories. Premium-grade scrap remains relatively tight, particularly UBC and 6063 extrusion scrap, limiting suppliers’ willingness to make aggressive price concessions. As a result, the decline in LME aluminum is increasingly being transmitted to the scrap market, but premium-grade scrap continues to show greater price resilience than ordinary mixed scrap. Southeast Asia ADC12 Prices Edge Lower as Demand Remains Weak The Southeast Asian ADC12 market remained soft this week, with prices declining in both Malaysia and Thailand. Malaysia’s domestic ADC12 price fell to MYR 12.45/kg (approximately $3,082/mt) , down 0.40% WoW, while FOB Port Klang prices declined to $3,090/mt , down 0.48%. In Thailand, domestic ADC12 prices fell to THB 102.5/kg (approximately $3,137/mt) , down 0.97% WoW. FOB Laem Chabang prices slipped to around $3,070/mt , down 0.16%. According to SMM’s recent discussions with Thai producers, export offers are currently concentrated at around $3,050–3,090/mt . Some producers have lowered their offers following the decline in LME aluminum, although overall adjustments remain relatively cautious. Demand remains the primary source of pressure. Southeast Asia is still in the traditional seasonal lull, with automotive and die-casting orders recovering slowly. Downstream buyers continue to purchase largely on a hand-to-mouth basis, with little indication of aggressive restocking. At the same time, production costs remain elevated. Market participants in Thailand reported that natural gas prices have recently risen significantly, with some producers indicating increases of around 40–50% . Higher energy costs are increasing secondary aluminum production costs and limiting producers’ ability to aggressively cut ADC12 prices even as LME and some scrap prices decline. The ADC12 market therefore remains caught between downstream pressure for lower prices and production costs providing a floor . Low-Priced Alloy Ingot Supply Adds Pressure to Asian Market Another development attracting market attention is the increasing availability of competitively priced casting alloy ingots from Africa, Vietnam and other regions. According to SMM’s recent market discussions, some African-origin ADC12 or similar casting alloy ingots have been indicated at around $2,850/mt , significantly below mainstream Southeast Asian ADC12 offers of approximately $3,050–3,090/mt. Against the backdrop of falling LME aluminum prices and weak downstream demand, these lower-priced materials are influencing buyers’ price expectations and providing additional bargaining leverage when negotiating with Southeast Asian suppliers. However, price is not the only consideration. Feedback from market participants suggests that some low-priced imported alloy ingots have shown greater variation in chemical composition and inconsistent quality , limiting their suitability for customers with stricter production requirements. For automotive components and die-casting applications, where alloy consistency is particularly important, buyers continue to consider product quality, stable supply and long-term reliability alongside price. The Asian ADC12 market is therefore showing increasing price and quality segmentation , with lower-priced material pressuring market sentiment while higher-quality, specification-consistent ADC12 retains some premium. LME Aluminum Falls Further as Supply Risk Premium Unwinds LME aluminum continued to decline this week. From August 17 to August 20, LME cash aluminum fell from around $3,272/mt to $3,182/mt , a cumulative decline of approximately $90/mt . One factor behind the decline is the continued unwinding of the supply risk premium associated with disruptions in the Middle East. Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter continues to restart production. Around 18% of the smelter’s pots have resumed operations , while all three potlines have been re-energised. Production is expected to return to pre-disruption hot-metal levels in the first quarter of 2027. As the restart path becomes clearer, market concerns over a prolonged disruption to Gulf aluminum supply have eased. Alternative logistics routes have also allowed some material and raw-material flows to continue, while increased aluminum exports from China, Indonesia and other Asian suppliers are helping offset part of the disruption to Gulf supply. Meanwhile, signs of easing spot tightness have emerged. The LME cash-to-three-month spread has moved from backwardation toward a slight contango, suggesting that concerns over immediate physical availability have eased at the margin. More importantly, however, downstream demand has failed to keep pace with the earlier rally in aluminum prices . SMM’s recent discussions with market participants indicate that buyers generally did not chase prices higher during the previous rally. Once LME began to decline, purchasing targets were quickly revised downward. This helps explain a view increasingly expressed by market participants that prices have recently been “falling faster than they rise.” Supply Risks Ease, but the Market Has Not Shifted Into Oversupply Despite the recent decline in LME aluminum, the global primary aluminum market should not yet be interpreted as having shifted decisively from tightness into oversupply. Only around 18% of Al Taweelah’s pots have restarted, while a full recovery to pre-disruption production levels is not expected until the first quarter of 2027. Other overseas restart and new capacity projects are also progressing, but the pace of actual supply recovery has yet to accelerate significantly. Some projects continue to ramp up more slowly than previously expected. Inventories also remain supportive. LME aluminum inventories are currently around 247,000 mt , remaining at relatively low levels. The recent LME decline therefore appears to reflect a combination of the unwinding of extreme supply risk premiums, easing near-term spot tightness and renewed focus on weak demand , rather than a fundamental shift toward substantial global primary aluminum oversupply. Low inventories and the gradual pace of overseas supply recovery continue to provide downside support. Outlook SMM expects the overseas secondary aluminum market to remain soft and range-bound in the near term, with increasing divergence between different products and grades . For aluminum scrap, further weakness in LME prices could continue to pressure Tense, Talon and other conventional scrap grades. However, premium materials such as UBC and 6063 extrusion scrap remain relatively tight, which should allow them to maintain stronger price resilience. If LME declines faster than premium scrap prices, their price-to-LME ratios could remain elevated or even rise temporarily. For ADC12, weak downstream demand remains the key constraint. Buyers are becoming increasingly aggressive in negotiations as LME declines, but rising energy costs in Thailand and relatively firm premium-grade scrap prices are limiting producers’ room for substantial further reductions. Lower-priced alloy ingots from Africa, Russia and other origins will also require close attention. If offers around $2,850/mt become more widely available, they could further pressure Asian buyers’ price expectations. However, differences in quality and chemical consistency mean that their impact on mainstream high-quality ADC12 could remain uneven. For LME aluminum, further unwinding of the Middle East supply risk premium may continue to limit upside potential. Nevertheless, EGA’s recovery remains incomplete, other overseas supply has yet to accelerate significantly, and inventories remain low, leaving fundamental support on the downside. Overall, the market’s key question is increasingly shifting from “Will supply be disrupted?” to “Can real demand absorb supply as production gradually recovers?” Going forward, market participants should closely monitor LME price and inventory structures, the actual pace of EGA and other overseas restarts, Thai natural gas and production costs, Southeast Asian UBC and 6063 scrap availability, flows of lower-priced African and Russian alloy ingots, and the recovery of automotive and die-casting orders across Asia .

SMM Analysis: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 76,600 mt of copper anode (HS code: 74020000) in July 2026, up 4.83% MoM and down 9.07% YoY...

SMM August 21 news: According to SMM customs data, July refined lead exports were 2,178 mt, down 47.81% MoM and up 21.37% YoY; lead alloy exports were 599 mt, down 32.72% MoM and down 66.88% YoY; and other lead products exports were 36 mt, down 41.22% MoM and up 51.77% YoY. Exports of all lead and lead product categories generally weakened MoM. On the import side, July refined lead imports were 9,215 mt, down 38.95% MoM but up 169.69% YoY; lead alloy imports were 26,495 mt, up 15.24% MoM and up 107.25% YoY, with import volumes staying high; and lead sheet and other lead product imports were only 112 mt. After the peak arrival of imports in June, the import premium for refined lead notably faded in July. The SHFE-LME arbitrage window narrowed, and China faced pressure to digest previously arrived inventory. Lead alloy imports showed stronger resilience, while other lead product imports shrank significantly. In July, China's lead prices first declined and then rebounded. In early to mid-month, LME lead inventory climbed sharply to near a 14-year high, dragging the most-traded SHFE lead contract down to around 15,500 yuan/mt, a more than two-year low. Overseas lead ingot suppliers were reluctant to sell at concessionary prices, holding back from selling. Looking ahead to August, the market sees a tug-of-war between longs and shorts and prices consolidate. On the supply side, maintenance at primary lead enterprises increases in mid-to-late month, tightening supply. Although losses in secondary lead have somewhat recovered, the MoM impact on refined lead production schedules remains at -22,300 mt. Overall supply stays low, and partial production resumptions cannot reverse the supply pattern. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for lead-acid batteries has fallen short of expectations. After the summer holiday, downstream is mainly restocking for essential needs, with limited stockpiling demand. Social inventory of lead ingots has risen to 75,000-79,000 mt, putting periodic pressure on prices. SMM expects the most-traded SHFE lead contract to generally trade in a range of 15,500-16,200 yuan/mt. The implementation of maintenance at primary lead enterprises in mid-to-late month is expected to lift prices after a decline, but consumption will constrain upside room. Overall, the lead price performance in August is expected to be better than in July, with the inclination for overseas lead ingot inflows to China improving MoM.

SMM Analysis: Recently, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper market saw a sudden short squeeze. Copper prices shot up, nearing record highs, and the premium (Back) of LME spot prices against the 3M contract once widened to the highest level in nearly five years...

According to the latest customs data, China’s galvanized steel sheet exports totaled 1.10 million mt in July 2026, up 2.63% MoM but down 8.14% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to July reached 7.8066 million mt, down 3.87% YoY.

On August 13, 2026, the Ministry of Heavy Industries of India officially launched the technical bid evaluation for the "Sintered Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Manufacturing Promotion Plan" (REPM), with 20 bids vying for up to five licenses. On the surface, it appears to be a fierce "20-for-5" competition, but when examining the industry's fundamentals, the real protagonist of this story is not the 72.8 billion rupees (about $765 million) in subsidies, but the "three clocks" running simultaneously in India—the policy clock is already pointing to mass production in 2028, the commercialization clock of state-owned enterprise IREL points to 2029–2030, and the certification clock of downstream clients is measured in "years." The desynchronization of these three clocks is the most intuitive footnote to the fact that it is still too early for India's rare earth industry chain to develop.

In summary, in H2 2026, China's prebaked anode export market will present the operating characteristics of "volume increase with stable prices, continued regional divergence, and overall mild growth."

According to China Customs data, China's rare earth permanent magnet (REPM) exports reached 5,375 tons​ in July 2026, down 4% MoM​ and 3.6% YoY. Total exports for January-July amounted to 36,880 tons, with a monthly average of 5,268 tons, aligning with SMM's earlier projections. SMM maintains its full-year 2026 REPM export forecast at approximately 61,600 tons, representing a YoY increase of about 7%.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs and compiled by SMM, China's silicon-manganese alloy exports reached 8,370.87 tons​ in July 2026, surging 132.05% month-on-month (MoM)​ and 252.24% year-on-year (YoY). For the first seven months of 2026, cumulative exports totaled 33,227.15 tons, up 102.05% YoY.The monthly figure appears impressive at first glance, but a rational assessment is warranted.

SMM August 21 News: This week, Pr-Nd alloy prices first declined and then rebounded. At the beginning of the week, prices continued to be in the doldrums, before stopping falling and rebounding toward the weekend. As of 17:00 Friday, Pr-Nd alloy was reported at 880,000 yuan/mt, up 10,000 yuan/mt from Thursday afternoon, flat compared with Friday morning. Today, Pr-Nd alloy stopped falling and followed the upward trend driven by the sharp raise in Pr-Nd oxide prices. This was mainly due to a large enterprise's procurement of Pr-Nd oxide yesterday, which quickly tightened low-priced supply on the market. Suppliers successively raised their quotes, and alloy enterprises followed suit with upward adjustments under the support of oxide costs, making low-priced materials hard to find. However, inquiry activity in the afternoon declined from yesterday, and downstream magnetic material enterprises were cautious in procurement, with limited actual transactions following up. Reviewing the weekly trend, Pr-Nd alloy prices this week showed a pattern of "first declining then rebounding": prices moved steadily at the start of the week, then weakened slightly from Tuesday as Pr-Nd oxide prices pulled back, hitting the week's low of 870,000 yuan/mt on Thursday. Toward the weekend, driven by the large enterprise's procurement of Pr-Nd oxide, prices rebounded strongly on Friday, rising 10,000 yuan/mt in a single day. As of 17:00 Friday, Pr-Nd alloy closed at 880,000 yuan/mt, up 5,000 yuan/mt from last Friday (875,000 yuan/mt), a WoW increase of 0.57%, halting the previous several weeks of decline and turning losses into gains. From the cost side, the cash cost of Pr-Nd alloy this week fell about 1,655 yuan/mt WoW, a decrease of about 0.19%, as cost pressure continued to ease; calculated based on Friday's closing price, the net profit per mt was about 6,700 yuan/mt, significantly expanded from last week, and profitability continued to improve. During the week, downstream magnetic material enterprises remained cautious in inquiries and procurement, with sluggish market trading activity. In mid-week, raw material prices were in the doldrums; some traders sold at low prices, and although alloy enterprises lowered their quotes accordingly, they were determined to hold prices firm, which narrowed the actual declines. Toward the weekend, raw material prices stopped falling and rebounded; alloy enterprises raised quotes accordingly, low-priced materials were hard to find, and trading activity recovered somewhat. In the short term, on the demand side, the "high-temperature holidays" of end-user motor enterprises are gradually ending, and with the approach of the traditional September-October peak season, top magnetic material enterprises have favorable expectations for order production schedules. The market holds strong expectations for downstream restocking and stockpiling. However, it remains to be seen whether the peak season demand expectations will be realized, as well as the release pace of new capacity for Pr-Nd oxide on the cost side. Pr-Nd alloy prices are expected to drift higher in a range sideways.