According to reports, Kazakhstan has formally signed a tripartite cooperation memorandum with the US-based Open Element company and South Korea's Hands company, finalising the construction project of the country's first modern aluminum wheel manufacturing plant. This marks a critical step in the transformation of Kazakhstan's automotive parts industry toward high-end and localised production, and also serves as a significant milestone in deepening its international industrial cooperation and strengthening its industrial capabilities. The project is led by Kazakhstan's leading domestic automaker, Astana Motor Company, in collaboration with Open Element from the US and Hands from South Korea.

[SMM Weekly Survey on Aluminum Downstream: Operating Rate of Aluminum Processing Industry Remains Flat WoW at 61.4%, Mid-Year Consumption Promotions Expected to Support Operating Rates] This week, the operating rate of leading enterprises in China's aluminum processing downstream sector remained flat WoW at 61.4%, with continued divergence across different segments.

[SMM Analysis: Comparison of Aluminum Wheel Export Situation from March to April: Calm on the Surface, but Hidden Complexities?] Customs data shows that in April 2025, China exported a total of 81,400 mt of aluminum alloy wheel hubs, basically flat MoM compared to 82,000 mt in March, highlighting overall resilience, and with a significant YoY increase of 13%. The export performance of domestic aluminum wheels in April remained robust, with the better-than-expected performance attracting market attention. Since the US initiated a tariff war in early April, the aluminum wheel industry, which has accounted for over 30% of direct exports to the US in recent years, was expected to be "the first to bear the brunt," and the market's export expectations for the aluminum wheel industry were relatively pessimistic. However, the aluminum wheel export data for April appeared "calm," or even "serene," exceeding the expectations of most in the market...

[SMM Analysis: Comparison of Aluminum Wheel Export Situation from March to April: Calm on the Surface, but Hidden Complexities?]

[SMM Weekly Survey on Aluminum Downstream: Weekly Operating Rate of Aluminum Processing Continues to Decline by 0.2% to 61.4%, with Sector Differentiation and Notable Recovery in Export Trade] This week, the operating rate of leading enterprises in China's aluminum processing downstream sector declined slightly by 0.2 percentage points WoW to 61.4%, with the differentiation trend continuing across various sectors.

From May 10 to 11, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer held a new round of tariff negotiations with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva. Both sides agreed to uniformly reduce the EO 14257 "reciprocal tariff" to a 10% baseline within 90 days and suspend further increases. Additionally, the implementation of the remaining 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The Section 232 tariffs , which are designed to protect the US domestic steel and aluminum industries, as well as the Section 301 tariffs targeting China, were not addressed in this round of negotiations. Therefore, the 25% tariff imposed by the US on steel and aluminum products remains unchanged , but this round of negotiations has left room for further negotiations on possible "substantial tax reductions". It is worth noting that the US has also retained a 20% "fentanyl tariff" specifically targeting Chinese goods valued at less than US$800 entering the US through international mail or express delivery channels , in an effort to combat the smuggling of chemical precursors. Industrial-grade aluminum semis are typically cleared through regular sea or air freight customs declarations, so this tax surcharge has no substantial impact on the tax burden of aluminum industry exports . So, how many layers of tariffs are currently imposed on aluminum semis directly exported from China to the US? What are the final tariff rates for each product? Currently, there are five main layers of tariffs: MFN (Most Favored Nation) tariff rates – the "first threshold" universally applicable to all WTO members; Section 301 additional tariffs on China – only targeting aluminum semis of Chinese origin, with tariff rates of 25% or 7.5% depending on the list; Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs – starting from March 12, 2025, the US will impose a 25% tariff on all imported aluminum and aluminum semis; EO 14257 reciprocal tariff – currently exempted , temporarily set at 0%; AD/CVD trade remedy measures – imposing anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) deposits on specific categories such as extruded profiles, aluminum sheets, and aluminum foil. Tariff Tier Current Tariff Rate Scope of Application (Typical HTS) Cumulative with Other Tiers? Tier 1 MFN (Column 1-General) Aluminum and aluminum semis (7601-7609) 0–5% Aluminum wheel hubs 2.5% 7,601-7,609, 7,610-7,616, 8,708.7 Must Tier 2 Section 301 tax surcharge on China List 1-3: 25% (effective from May 10, 2019) List 4A: 7.5% (effective from February 14, 2020) List 1-3: Most of 7,601-7,609; List 4A: Some products of 7,610-7,616; Aluminum wheel hubs 8708.70.45 fall under List 3 Yes (only of Chinese origin) Tier 3 Section 232—General 25% tax surcharge on steel and aluminum 25% (effective from March 12, 2025) 7,601-7,609 + 7,616.99.51/70, etc. Yes Section 232—Auto parts (including aluminum wheel hubs) 25% (effective from May 3, 2025) Annex I lists 8,708.70, etc. Yes Tier 4 EO 14257 reciprocal tariff Exemptions for aluminum and auto parts = 0% — — Tier 5 AD/CVD trade remedies (anti-dumping and countervailing duties) See the table below Extruded materials, general alloy plates, foil, disposable meal boxes, etc. Yes Summary of currently effective anti-dumping/countervailing products: Product AD Bond CVD Bond Federal Register Notice Profiles 7,604, 7,608 33–86% 7–374% A-570-967 / C-570-968 General alloy aluminum plates 7,606 49.50% 51% A-570-073 / C-570-074 Household aluminum foil ≤0.2 mm 7,607 56–106% 17–81% A-570-053 / C-570-054 Disposable aluminum meal boxes 7,615.1, 7,615.9 94–168% — A-570-157 (final determination in 2025) Quick reference for typical products: Product Category (HTS Examples) MFN Section 232 Section 301 EO 14257 AD/CVD* Total Nominal Tariff Unwrought Aluminum Ingot (7601) 0% 25% (Aluminum) 25% 0% None 50% Aluminum Extrusion (7604/7608) 5% 25% (Aluminum) 25% 0% AD 33–86% CVD 7–242% ≥ 88% (Median) Common Alloy Aluminum Sheet and Coil (7606) 3% 25% (Aluminum) 25% 0% AD 49.5% CVD 46.48% ~ 149% Aluminum Foil ≤0.2 mm (7607) 0–5.8% 25% (Aluminum) 25% 0% AD 48–106% CVD 17–81% ≥ 117% Aluminum Heat Sinks/Structural Parts (7610, 7615, 7616) 2.5–5% 25% (Derivatives) 7.5% (List 4A) 0% New AD 94–168% (Disposable Meal Boxes, etc., A-570-157, Final Determination on March 11, 2025) ≥ 137% Aluminum Alloy Automobile Wheel Hubs (8708.70.45/.60) 2.50% 25% (Auto Parts) 25% 0% Under Investigation, None for Now 52.50% *AD/CVD items are subject to the latest announcements from the US Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission. In 2024, China's direct exports of aluminum semis to the US accounted for only 4.08% of total exports. Therefore, the tariff war had a relatively small impact on the direct exports of aluminum semis. However, for some terminal finished products, such as home appliances, electronics, and auto parts, if they are not included in the Section 301 or Section 232 lists, they will be subject to the 10% tariff under the current Sino-US negotiation agreement. Additionally, the 24% 90-day suspension window may stimulate a rush in exports, thereby boosting aluminum demand in the short term. SMM will closely monitor recent downstream production and order situations.

On April 16, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo - Main Forum , hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), SMM Metal Exchange Center, and Shandong AIS Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., Inga Simonenko, Head of Marketing and Low-Carbon Solutions at Rusal, discussed "Exploring Growth Opportunities in a Challenging International Aluminum Market." Topics of great interest in the aluminum industry include the uncertainty in demand recovery due to a new round of trade tensions, the reshaping of supply chains by deglobalization, the challenge posed by the US to the decarbonization agenda, the implementation of carbon taxes, the growth of low-carbon demand, and competition with data centers for low-carbon energy. Global trade and geopolitical tensions have suppressed demand, increased logistics costs, and raised carbon footprints. Meanwhile, China's market share in aluminum semis and aluminum products in developing countries continues to grow. From the perspectives of product categories and trading partners, she introduced China's exports of aluminum products and aluminum wheels. In 2024, the construction sector remained a weak link in the growth of aluminum demand. The recovery of construction activities in regions such as Southeast Asia has become one of the opportunities for demand growth. Key influencing factors: In many developed economies, declining interest rates and persistent housing shortages will drive growth in construction activities. Infrastructure investment is shifting from transportation to utilities. To achieve climate goals, there is a renewed focus on decarbonizing the power grid. Emerging Asia will be the fastest-growing region. Strong demographic trends, significant foreign investment, and government policies will ensure that Southeast Asia has the fastest-growing construction market. Increased geopolitical uncertainty may drive up construction costs. In 2025, the power and automotive sectors will be the two key drivers of aluminum demand growth. Electric vehicles (EVs) play a significant role in driving aluminum demand growth in the automotive industry, while the growth trend in vehicle production is difficult to sustain, posing further challenges. Five major components driving aluminum usage per vehicle: electric drive housing, battery pack housing, large/mega castings, protective components, and battery cooling plates. Primary aluminum demand in developed countries has started to recover from a low base compared to the peak in 2018. As China seeks new growth points, demand in the rest of the world is accelerating. The global market will shift from balance in 2024 to shortage in 2025. The implementation of US import tariffs in 2025 has emerged as a major challenge for regional trade flows, potentially curbing the growth of aluminum demand. Additionally, Trump's reduction in funding for the decarbonization agenda will increase the cost of the US's low-carbon transition. This has hindered the net-zero transition and the growth of low-carbon aluminum demand in the US and globally. Enterprises with ESG principles are adjusting their decarbonization goals—only a minority of aluminum end-users are practicing them. It lists the revisions and progress of decarbonization goals of some well-known enterprises. Meanwhile, the establishment of regional premiums for low-carbon aluminum underscores the sustained growth in demand for low-carbon aluminum. In the foreseeable future, primary aluminum will remain the primary metal source, while the share of secondary aluminum will increase. The ceiling on China's primary aluminum capacity is accelerating the advancement of new smelting projects overseas. Aluminum smelter projects relying on high-carbon energy pose challenges to green development. At the same time, China has introduced policies to promote the low-carbon development of the aluminum industry. By 2030, the electricity required by data centers will exceed the total consumption of all aluminum smelters by 50%, and the aluminum demand for infrastructure will also increase significantly. It introduces: Data centers, like aluminum producers, require a reliable source of electricity. Led by changes in US trade and ESG policies, the aluminum industry is facing new challenges. Revisions to US trade and ESG policies: Posing challenges to overall aluminum demand, reviewing global ESG issues, reshaping supply chains, reviewing global carbon pricing, cost inflation pressures, and posing challenges to low-carbon aluminum demand. Finally, it introduces Rusal: Committed to sustainable and low-carbon aluminum development (LCA). 》Click to view the special report on the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo

["[Dishengli: No Robot Industry Chain Layout Yet] Today, Dishengli stated on the interactive platform that the company's main businesses involve automotive aluminum wheel hubs and tires, as well as the recycling and reuse of scrap lithium batteries. Currently, it has not yet laid out the robot industry chain."]

SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Concerns Over US Economic Recession Intensify, Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate Downward in the Short Term In recent weeks, macroeconomic concerns have intensified due to President Trump's escalating and unpredictable tariff policies, heightening fears of a US economic recession. On the fundamentals side, the aluminum industry chain remains predominantly bullish. The seasonal destocking trend during the "Golden March and Silver April" period has become more pronounced, with aluminum ingot inventories continuing to decline to around 800,000 mt. End-use consumption, particularly in the NEV sector, has shown steady growth, and downstream restocking demand has also rebounded. As the peak consumption season approaches, order volumes and operating rates in most sectors have increased. Coupled with the ongoing destocking of aluminum ingot inventories, these factors provide a floor for aluminum prices. However, in the short term, the market remains somewhat constrained by external bearish factors, with the US dollar rebounding to high levels, putting pressure on base metals. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating downward trend in the near term. Continued close attention should be paid to changes in macroeconomic sentiment and the actual release of downstream demand.

China Aluminum Wheel Exports Hit a Three-Year High in January, but Faced a “Waterloo” in February [SMM Analysis]Customs data shows that China's aluminum alloy wheel hub exports totaled 155,300 mt from January to February 2025, a slight increase of 1% YoY. Among them, China exported 88,800 mt of aluminum alloy wheel hubs in January 2025, a significant increase of 17.6% MoM from December 2024. Notably, the export volume of aluminum alloy wheel hubs in January this year reached a new high since January 2022, with a steady small increase YoY compared to 88,100 mt in January last year. SMM believes this is closely related to the "rush to export" behavior under the expectation of tariff hikes. In February 2025...