The overseas secondary aluminum market shifted from supply-driven gains to demand-led corrections in H1 as geopolitical risks eased and downstream demand remained weak. At the same time, the UAE, the EU and the US introduced measures to strengthen domestic scrap resource management, reinforcing aluminum scrap's strategic role in global supply chains. In H2, SMM expects demand recovery to be the key driver of prices, while policy will continue to shape trade flows and premium scrap availability.

[SMM Analysis: Secondary aluminum operating rate saw a narrower MoM decline but a sharper YoY drop in June]

[SMM Analysis: Secondary Aluminum Operating Rate in June Sees Narrower MoM Decline and Deep YoY Pullback; Attention on Production Flexibility Driven by Price Spreads] According to the SMM survey, in June 2026, the operating rate of the secondary aluminum industry fell 0.9 percentage points MoM from May to 33.3%, and fell 7.6 percentage points YoY.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Primary-Scrap Spread Narrows Sharply as ADC12-A00 Premium Hits a Record High: Has the Window Opened for Primary Aluminum to Replace Scrap?

While order delivery at industry leaders was relatively stable, the release of new demand was insufficient, and enterprises lacked strong motivation to hike operating rates. Going forward, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy at industry leaders is expected to stay around current levels, likely moving sideways near 59.6% in the short term.

Analysts remain optimistic on India's leading aluminum producers Hindalco Industries and Vedanta Aluminum, expecting their shares to rise around 20% over the next 9-12 months. Vedanta is projected to benefit from lower production costs, higher output and stronger cash flow, while Hindalco is expected to gain from Novelis' earnings recovery and upstream capacity expansions scheduled for 2028-2029. Although LME aluminum prices have corrected about 17% from recent highs, analysts believe tightening market fundamentals will continue to support prices. Industry estimates suggest the global aluminum deficit for 2026 has widened from 0.3 million tones to 1.5 million tones, providing positive support for aluminum producers.

Fosbel has highlighted its Ceramic Welding technology as a solution for repairing refractory linings in aluminum furnaces without requiring shutdowns. The process uses an exothermic reaction to fuse new refractory material directly onto existing linings while furnaces remain in operation at temperatures above 1300°F. The technology is suitable for 60%, 70% and 80% alumina refractories commonly used in aluminum furnace applications and is designed to repair worn areas such as metal lines, roofs and sidewalls. Fosbel said the technology can be used for both maintenance and preventive repair programs to extend furnace campaign life and reduce downtime. The company has also introduced Nano-Tec™ ceramic welding powders, thermal cleaning systems and Supertorch equipment to improve repair efficiency, reduce material loss and lower maintenance costs. Hot-repair technologies are increasingly being adopted by aluminum producers seeking higher furnace reliability and operational efficiency.

According to China Customs data, from January to April 2026, India's imports of can stock (highly correlated with HS 76061220) from China rose from 4,587 mt to 6,923 mt, while imports of finished cans (HS 76129010) also increased from 43 mt to 467 mt (equivalent to approximately 38.9 million cans) over the same period. Starting in May, China's can stock exports to India are expected to further expand, forming a phased export peak.

This week, the operating rate of China's downstream aluminum processing industry leaders was recorded at 64%, edging down 0.1 percentage point WoW, with significant divergence across sub-sectors. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy edged up 1.2 percentage points WoW to 59.4%; although supply remained normal, demand recovery was slow, and the rate is expected to hold steady in the short term. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip edged down 0.2 percentage points to 72.0%, with robust export orders offsetting weak domestic demand caused by high aluminum prices. The operating rates of aluminum wire and cable and aluminum extrusion held flat at 68.0% and 57.6% respectively; aluminum wire and cable benefited from a significant increase in aluminum stranded wire exports. Extrusion side, steady growth in home decoration orders partially offset the drag from weak real estate recovery, while industrial extrusion demand remained solid, expected to hold up well in the short term. The operating rates of aluminum foil and secondary aluminum producers declined 0.3 and 1 percentage point respectively to 73.3% and 53.9%, affected by multiple factors including fading peak season, air-conditioner foil drag, bill supervision tightening, and weakening demand, facing sustained downward pressure going forward. Overall, strong exports partially compensated for insufficient domestic demand, but high aluminum prices, cost pressure, and off-season factors continued to constrain the industry's upside room. Primary aluminum alloy: This week, the operating rate of China's industry leaders in primary aluminum alloy rose 1.2 percentage points WoW to 59.4%. Supply side, enterprises maintained normal production schedules overall. Some enterprises saw operating rates rebound recently as prior inventory had been largely depleted. Demand side, the aluminum price center shifted lower this month MoM, but downstream spot order quotes remained generally scarce, with the market primarily executing long-term contracts as usual. As downstream demand recovered slowly, primary aluminum alloy enterprises intensified competition for limited orders, leading to a slight increase in overall inventory. Overall, with aluminum prices maintaining current levels, the stimulus effect on downstream consumption remained limited. The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry is expected to stay at current levels, likely remaining stable next week. Aluminum plate/sheet and strip: This week, the operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip industry leaders edged down 0.2 percentage points WoW to 72.0%. Operations side, plate/sheet, strip and foil industry leaders maintained a generally stable production pace, but disrupted shipment pace had not yet eased due to persistently high aluminum prices and downstream speculative purchasing patterns. Orders side, stable domestic can stock packaging demand provided a floor; ESS sector battery casings, brazing materials and other products maintained high operating rates as downstream orders extended into Q3, forming a key support; auto sheets benefited from MoM rebound in new energy vehicle sales in May and strong exports, with orders recovering at the margin. Export side, a stronger overseas market significantly benefited China's exports, with enterprises reporting export orders already extended to late August and beyond, with full orders on hand. However, the domestic commodity plate market faced a severe situation: aluminum ingot average prices had long operated at a high level of 24,000 yuan/mt, civilian aluminum semis demand contracted sharply, fixed-price engineering orders were widely delayed as picking up goods meant immediate losses, and domestic orders showed signs of weakening. In the short term, although strong exports could offset some weak domestic demand, aluminum price fluctuation risks intensified, and enterprises tended to control production schedule pace while destocking simultaneously. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip is expected to be under pressure in June. Aluminum wire and cable: The domestic aluminum wire and cable industry operating rate held steady at 68.0% this week, flat WoW. The industry operating rate stayed high during the week, mainly supported by strong export order activity. Resilient ex-China demand continued to drive enterprise production plans, and near-term industry orders remained focused on aluminum stranded wire export orders. In contrast, domestically, the pace of power grid construction project order placement was slower than expected at the beginning of the year. Recent power grid tenders were dominated by low-voltage and overhead lines, and the marginal boost from order production schedules to operating rates weakened. However, sustained volume growth in export orders effectively filled the gap in domestic demand, and the order structure continued to show a pattern of "strong exports, stable domestic." Under the current dynamic between high export growth and stable domestic demand, industry shipments maintained a dynamic balance, and operating rates are expected to remain resilient in the near term. Aluminum extrusion: The domestic aluminum extrusion operating rate held steady at 57.6% this week, with the industry continuing a mild operating trend overall. On the architectural extrusion side, home renovation orders maintained steady incremental growth recently. Combined with some enterprises having previously secured large-scale project orders such as supertall buildings and corporate headquarters, their volume advantage and longer delivery cycles provided sustained support for industry operations, partially offsetting the drag from weak real estate recovery. On the industrial extrusion side, demand in segments such as power systems, automotive lightweighting, and PV frames remained solid, supporting stable industry operations. Multiple large enterprises reported that May orders remained robust and held an optimistic outlook for June orders. However, some small and mid-sized industrial extrusion enterprises reported that to maintain healthy cash flow, they expect to moderately control order-taking to ease finished product inventory pressure. Some enterprises also proactively declined orders with low processing fees to maintain reasonable margins, leading to slight divergence in industry operations. Overall, off-season characteristics had not yet emerged, and the aluminum extrusion operating rate is expected to continue to hold up well next week. Aluminum foil: The operating rate of aluminum foil industry leaders pulled back 0.3 percentage points WoW to 73.3% this week. At the enterprise operation level, the traditional peak-season effect was gradually fading. Although orders on hand at industry leaders remained ample, structural divergence intensified. On the order side, demand for food packaging foil and pharmaceutical foil was at the tail end of the peak season, and domestic orders were set to face a seasonal pullback. Battery foil, on the other hand, benefited from robust battery end-use demand, with tight production schedules. However, the air-conditioner foil segment faced notable pressure: June household air conditioner domestic sales production schedules were sharply revised down YoY, downstream clients bargained aggressively, hydrophilic foil processing fees were running near cost, and the air-conditioner foil segment entered a downturn earlier than in previous years. In June, the packaging off-season effect and the drag from air-conditioner foil are expected to gradually dominate, with operating rates continuing to pull back. Secondary Aluminum: This week, the operating rate of secondary aluminum industry leaders fell 1 percentage point WoW to 53.9%, mainly weighed down by dual pressures from both the cost and demand sides. Cost side, invoice regulation continued to tighten with an expanded scope, and the shortage of compliant input invoices forced some secondary aluminum producers to cut production, significantly dampening their willingness to operate. Demand side, downstream consumption weakened further after June, with new orders for die-casting remaining sluggish. Although ADC12 prices were raised consecutively at the beginning of the week driven by costs, downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of high prices, restocking mainly on rigid demand with little willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise, and transaction volumes failed to increase in tandem. Overall, if invoice issues continue to escalate and the off-season deepens further, the industry operating rate still faces downward pressure.

Gulf aluminum producers are accelerating overseas acquisitions and investments as they seek to improve supply-chain resilience, expand market access and reduce exposure to regional geopolitical risks. Recent moves include Aluminum Bahrain’s (Alba) USD2.2 billion acquisition of Aluminum Dunkerque, Europe’s largest primary aluminum smelter, and Emirates Global Aluminum’s (EGA) continued expansion into recycling assets across Europe and North America. Industry forecasts expect global aluminum demand to exceed 92 million tones by 2031, supported by growth in electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and sustainable packaging. Markets believe Gulf producers are increasingly using international expansion to strengthen their positions in the growing low-carbon aluminum market.