Global Aluminum Market Review – April: Divergent Domestic & Overseas Trends and Marked Spot Structure Disparities The global aluminum market in April featured a core pattern of strength overseas and weakness domestically with diverging trends. The main Shanghai aluminum contract retreated from highs amid fluctuations, while LME aluminum maintained firm momentum supported by low inventories and geopolitical factors, with both markets seeing mild corrections toward month-end. Market drivers this month centered on macro policies, geopolitical conflicts, supply-demand fundamentals and inventory structures, with movements of key indicators further highlighting supply-demand imbalances between domestic and overseas aluminum markets. I. April Aluminum Price Review: Linked Movements with Distinct Strength Differentials Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum shared similar price rhythms in April, both fluctuating higher initially before retreating. However, notable gaps emerged in upward momentum and correction ranges, with overseas aluminum prices significantly outperforming domestic counterparts. The average Shanghai-LME aluminum ratio dropped from 7.36 in March to 7.03 in April, reflecting stronger overseas aluminum pricing relative to Shanghai aluminum. The main Shanghai aluminum contract trended upward early in the month before softening overall, declining from elevated levels through range-bound trading. It opened lower at RMB 24,715 per ton at the start of the month and consolidated. Driven by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions and rising LME aluminum prices, it surged to a monthly peak of RMB 25,675 per ton in mid-April. In late April, amid continuous domestic inventory accumulation, weaker-than-expected downstream demand, and risk-averse capital outflows ahead of the May Day holiday, prices corrected steadily. Closing at RMB 24,430 per ton on April 30, the contract recorded a monthly trading range of nearly RMB 1,360 per ton. LME March aluminum traded firmly with mild late-month declines. Opening at USD 3,459 per ton, it climbed to a monthly high of USD 3,672 per ton in mid-April, underpinned by overseas supply disruptions from geopolitical frictions and sustained inventory destocking. Prices edged down later due to fluctuating US-Iran negotiations, hawkish macro sentiment and profit-taking at high levels, settling at USD 3,476 per ton at month-end with a slight monthly loss. Overall, LME aluminum vastly outperformed domestic Shanghai aluminum. In terms of price drivers, geopolitics served as a shared upward catalyst for global aluminum prices, with production cuts and supply disruptions in the Middle East continuously boosting market risk aversion. Price divergence stemmed from dual disparities in macro policies and fundamentals: elevated domestic inventories and sluggish demand consistently capped aluminum price rebounds, while tight overseas inventories and strained spot supplies provided robust support for LME aluminum. II. Key Inventory Indicators: Divergent Inventory Movements and Contrasting Supply-Demand Landscapes As a core gauge of aluminum market supply and demand, domestic and overseas inventory trends diverged sharply in April, directly shaping the relative strength of regional aluminum prices. Domestic aluminum inventories kept rising and stood at a multi-year seasonal high. Social inventories maintained an upward trend throughout April, hitting 1.465 million tons in mid-month, the highest seasonal level in five years. A clear imbalance emerged between rigid supply release and lackluster downstream demand during the traditional peak "Silver April" period, leading to persistent spot market loosening. SHFE warehouse stocks expanded from 420,000 tons at the start of the month to 450,000 tons at month-end. Elevated warehouse stock levels further confirmed ample domestic spot supply, weighing continuously on aluminum prices. Overseas LME aluminum inventories declined steadily to a 20-year low. Total LME aluminum inventories fell from 410,000 tons to 370,000 tons in April, extending months of destocking to historic lows. Noticeable structural divergence persisted in inventory composition: Russian aluminum accounted for approximately 92% of total LME stocks in March, resulting in low market-circulating inventories and increasingly tight physical spot supply, which acted as the fundamental pillar for strong LME aluminum prices. In summary, April’s global aluminum market was governed by contrasting core dynamics: low overseas inventories, geopolitical disruptions and hawkish Federal Reserve policies on the overseas front, versus high domestic inventories, weak real demand and stable growth expectations domestically. This drove pronounced market divergence. Affected by intertwined internal and external factors, the main Shanghai aluminum contract corrected downwards from highs, while LME aluminum remained in a firm trading range, backed by historically low inventories, a tight spot balance and geopolitical risk premiums.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] The ADC12 market overall remained in the doldrums today. SMM ADC12 prices were lowered by 100 yuan/mt to 23,800 yuan/mt. Affected by the pullback in primary aluminum prices and weak downstream demand, enterprises actively lowered their offers, and the mainstream transaction center shifted downward. With the Labour Day holiday approaching, downstream enterprises gradually entered production suspension or production cuts mode. Pre-holiday stocking demand was notably insufficient, and market trading sentiment turned sluggish.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Domestic and International Aluminum Prices Weakened in Tandem, Weak Macro Sentiment Dragged Down Pre-Holiday Market]

SMM April 29: SHFE aluminum 2605 fluctuated upward in early trading, with overall aluminum prices still operating within the recent lower range. Some downstream enterprises had completed pre-holiday stockpiling, and overall restocking sentiment pulled back today. Affected by low aluminum prices, overall market shipment sentiment was weak. Some sellers maintained relatively high quotations due to the impact of declining aluminum prices. Some offered lower prices for cargoes with invoices dated next month due to invoice shortages. The market quotation range was wide, with mainstream transactions concentrated around SMM A00 aluminum -20 to +20 yuan/mt. Today's east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.75, down 0.16 MoM; purchasing sentiment index was 2.90, down 0.74 MoM. On the last day before the Labour Day holiday, downstream processing enterprises in central China had basically completed early stockpiling, and with next month's policies unclear, traders' concerns over insufficient invoice quotas suppressed transactions for cargoes with invoices dated next month, with overall market buying sentiment being sluggish. However, some holders worried about insufficient invoices and tended to offload cargoes in bulk, causing price collapse in some shipment prices. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from parity to a discount of 30 yuan to the central China price. Today's central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.84, up 0.01 MoM; purchasing sentiment index was 2.33, down 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 1.4 MoM today, with all three regions showing destocking trends.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: April Secondary Aluminum PMI Data Fell Below the 50 Mark, Off-Season Pressure Expected to Persist in May] The aluminum AL2606 contract opened at 23,010 yuan/mt in the night session, reaching a high of 23,120 yuan/mt and a low of 22,880 yuan/mt, closing at 22,940 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a decline of 0.69%.

SMM April 29: SHFE aluminum 2605 fluctuated upward in early trading, with overall aluminum prices still operating within a relatively low range recently. Driven by pre-holiday restocking, reduced liquidity due to invoice shortages, and recent low aluminum prices, overall buyer procurement sentiment was strong. Mainstream transactions for cargoes with invoices dated this month were concentrated around SMM A00 aluminum average price to +10 yuan/mt. East China market shipments sentiment index was 2.91, down 0.10 MoM; procurement sentiment index was 3.64, up 0.06 MoM. Central China market downstream processing enterprises showed improved stockpiling sentiment ahead of the Labour Day holiday, driving a slight recovery in overall market transaction atmosphere. However, insufficient invoice quotas still suppressed next-month invoice transactions among traders, with more preference for selling cargoes with invoices dated this month, keeping prices high. Ultimately, actual transaction price range in the central China market centered around central China price premium 10 yuan to discount 10 yuan. Central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.83, up 0.01 MoM; procurement sentiment index was 2.41, up 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 1.15 MoM, with destocking mainly from Wuxi and Gongyi.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Norsk Hydro reported strong Q1 2026 performance, with adjusted EBITDA at NOK 8.67 billion, slightly down year-on-year due to currency and power impacts. Higher aluminum prices and increased alumina and metal sales supported earnings, while weaker alumina prices, a stronger NOK, and lower power production weighed on results. Adjusted EPS rose to NOK 2.07 (from NOK 1.63), though free cash flow was negative NOK 4 billion due to higher working capital tied to elevated metal prices and volumes. Return on capital employed (RoaCE) stood at 10.1%.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Plunged Sharply, Aluminum Alloy Prices in the Doldrums] The aluminum alloy 2606 contract fell sharply in the overnight night session, opening at 23,075 yuan, reaching a high of 23,085 yuan, hitting a low of 22,945 yuan, and closing at 22,990 yuan, down 160 yuan from the previous settlement price, a decline of 0.69%.

As high aluminum price fluctuations undermined the stability of orders for processing enterprises while driving production costs to surge sharply, actual transactions still relied on volume discounts. Aluminum billet enterprises hovering on the edge of losses continued to face severe financial pressure. Downstream enterprise restocking sentiment was notably under pressure, industry profits declined, and competition intensified...

SMM April 28: SHFE aluminum 2605 fluctuated downward in early trading. Influenced by pre-holiday restocking, invoice shortages, and the sharp decline in aluminum prices, overall buyer purchasing sentiment was strong. Mainstream transactions for cargoes with invoices dated this month in the market centered around SMM A00 aluminum average price to +20 yuan/mt. The shipment sentiment index in east China was 3.01 today, down 0.31 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 3.58, up 0.29 MoM. In central China, downstream processing enterprises showed improved stockpiling sentiment, but invoicing quotas declined. Traders' concerns over whether invoices could be issued on schedule suppressed overall market transactions. Procurement sentiment edged down slightly from yesterday, but traders showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, preventing prices from continuing to decline. The actual transaction price range in central China ultimately centered around the central China price plus 10 yuan to minus 10 yuan. The shipment sentiment index in central China was 2.82 today, down 0.01 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 2.33, down 0.01 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 0.65 MoM today, with all three regions showing a destocking trend.