[SMM Aluminum News Flash] On May 15, LME aluminum inventory was recorded at 344,000 mt, down 2,500 mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.72%. Over the past week, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 11,800 mt, a decline of 3.31%. Over the past month, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 49,800 mt, a decline of 12.64%.

[SMM Aluminum News Flash] On May 14, LME aluminum inventory was recorded at 346,500 mt, down 2,250 mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.65%. Over the past week, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 11,700 mt, a decline of 3.27%. Over the past month, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 49,500 mt, a decline of 12.49%.

[Ex-China Supply Disruptions Combined with Macro Recovery Strengthen Upside Momentum for Aluminum Prices] The risk of ex-China aluminum supply disruptions has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing has restricted aluminum ingot spot liquidity, and a weakening spot market will limit upside room for domestic aluminum prices. However, since April, China's export orders have remained positive, and combined with recent macro tailwinds, a turning point in China's social inventory is expected to emerge, boosting upside momentum for aluminum prices.

[SMM Aluminum News Flash] On May 13, LME aluminum inventory was recorded at 348,800 mt, down 2,250 mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.64%. Over the past week, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 11,500 mt, a decline of 3.19%; over the past month, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 48,400 mt, a decline of 12.18%.

[Macro Policy and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and there remains a supply gap in ex-China aluminum, with the strong LME market transmitting to China and providing support for aluminum prices. However, the continuation of inventory buildup exceeding expectations in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[Inventory Buildup and Macro Tailwinds Offset Each Other, Aluminum Prices Trade in a Range] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, the continuation of higher-than-expected inventory buildup in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. At the same time, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market will further limit upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential emergence of a turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[SMM Aluminum News Flash] On May 7, LME aluminum inventory was recorded at 358,200 mt, down 2,000 mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.56%; over the past week, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 8,825.00 mt, a decrease of 2.40%; over the past month, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 51,700 mt, a decrease of 12.61%.

[SMM Aluminum News Flash] On May 6, LME aluminum inventory was recorded at 360,200 mt, down 2,500 mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.69%. Over the past week, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 7,975.00 mt, a decline of 2.17%. Over the past month, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 51,700 mt, a decline of 12.56%.

In the short term, the core pattern of LME outperforms SHFE is unlikely to reverse. Strength in the overseas market will support SHFE aluminum's post-holiday catch-up potential, but high domestic inventory and weak demand will cap overall gains. Going forward, key focus will be on the pace of China aluminum ingot destocking and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream production resumptions.

[SMM Aluminum News Flash] On April 30, LME aluminum inventory was recorded at 367,100 mt, down 1,150 mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.31%; over the past week, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 11,800 mt, a decrease of 3.11%; over the past month, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 49,700 mt, a decrease of 11.93%.