[Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hikes Delayed, Short-Term Weakness in Aluminum Prices Hard to Break] In China, the proportion of liquid aluminum continued to rise, and warehouse withdrawals of aluminum ingots hit a four-year high in the past week. The further acceleration of the destocking pace has been the biggest highlight recently, but the absolute inventory level remains in a high range. Recently, with the continued narrowing of the geopolitical risk premium coupled with expectations for new project startups outside China, macro headwinds still dominate. LME aluminum is under significant pressure in the short term, and domestic aluminum prices are expected to follow LME aluminum and remain in the doldrums.

[Mideast Situation Adds New Uncertainties, Aluminum Prices Continue in the Doldrums] The dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and the resumption of navigation through the strait remains uncertain. The hawkish shift by the US Fed has boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China have fallen. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to continue in the doldrums.

[SMM Aluminum Express] On June 30, LME aluminum inventory stood at 303,700 mt, down 1,550 mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.51%. Over the past week, LME aluminum inventory fell by a total of 8,050.00 mt, a decline of 2.58%. Over the past month, LME aluminum inventory fell by a total of 34,300 mt, a decline of 10.16%.

[Strait of Hormuz Control Dispute Continues; Bearish Factors Dominate Short-Term Aluminum Prices] The Strait of Hormuz control dispute continues, and the resumption of navigation in the strait remains uncertain. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, and non-ferrous metal prices were suppressed. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[Destocking Accelerates to Provide Support, Export Concerns Limit Rebound Room] The US Fed's hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. The Middle East geopolitical situation has been somewhat volatile but shows no signs of deterioration. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] On June 26, LME aluminum inventory was 306,700 mt, down 1,500 mt or 0.49% from the previous day. Over the past week, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 8,575.00 mt, or 2.72%. Over the past month, it fell by 32,500 mt, or 9.59%.

[SMM Aluminum Weekly Review: Macro Situation Fluctuates, Domestic Aluminum Price Peak Under Pressure amid High Inventory]

On June 4, SMM reported Shanghai Bonded Zone aluminum inventory at 60,800 mt, Guangdong Bonded Zone inventory at 19,500 mt, totaling 80,300 mt, up 3,100 mt WoW.

According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday this week, the social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in China's major consumption regions decreased slightly by 400 mt WoW to 62,500 mt, ending seven consecutive weeks of inventory buildup. On one hand, insufficient input tax invoices forced some secondary aluminum smelters to cut production, tightening market supply; on the other hand, traders increased shipments as the spot-futures price spread widened, which, combined with downstream procurement and manufacturers' repurchase activities, accelerated spot circulation. In the short term, supported by invoice source constraints and the spot-futures price spread, social inventory may continue modest destocking, but weak demand will limit the scope for destocking.

[Rising Interest Rate Cut Expectations Boost Market Sentiment; Aluminum Prices Continue LME Outperforms SHFE Sideways Pattern] On the domestic front, driven by improved export profits, aluminum semis exports recovered somewhat and are expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term. However, the pace of inventory destocking in China remained slow, spot aluminum transactions were lackluster, and downstream purchasing remained cautious, limiting SHFE aluminum's upside room. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to continue the LME outperforms SHFE sideways pattern in the short term.