Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.

SMM, March 19: This week, Chinese aluminum fluoride enterprises mainly focused on order deliveries, with aluminum fluoride prices holding steady. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,180-10,450 yuan/mt; cryolite prices also held steady, with SMM cryolite quoted at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side: Prices of key raw materials for aluminum fluoride continued to rise. Specifically, the delivery-to-factory price of 97% fluorite powder remained stable, currently concentrated in the range of 3,150-3,450 yuan/mt. During the Two Sessions, mining at northern mines was restricted, leading to a temporary tight supply of fluorite raw ore; some beneficiation plants showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm due to relatively low inventory levels, and downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises slightly recovered in operating demand after resuming work following the holiday. SMM expected fluorite prices to hold up well in the short term. Aluminum hydroxide prices edged up steadily, with the current SMM weighted average price at 1,673 yuan/mt, up 1.52% WoW. The sulphuric acid market remained firm, and prices continued to rise amid higher costs, tightening supply, and strong demand. Overall, the raw material side of aluminum fluoride moved higher, and production pressure on enterprises increased significantly. Supply side showed a pattern of rigid cost increases, deeply pressured profitability, and weak willingness to operate. Recently, prices of key raw materials such as fluorite, sulphuric acid, and aluminum hydroxide continued to rise, significantly pushing up aluminum fluoride production costs. The industry was caught in a squeeze from both costs and selling prices, with enterprises generally operating at a loss. Production enthusiasm was hit hard, overall industry operating rates remained in the doldrums, and actual supply increases were limited. On the demand side, operating aluminum capacity downstream remained stable, forming a rigid demand base for aluminum fluoride; however, enterprises mainly restocked for rigid demand and purchased as needed, with cautious procurement and insufficient demand elasticity to boost prices. Brief comment: This week, prices of key raw materials such as fluorite and sulphuric acid held up well, and the cost side continued to rise, significantly increasing production pressure on enterprises; in March, the aluminum fluoride tender price of a downstream benchmark enterprise was finalized, down 200-370 yuan/mt MoM, and the spot market also moved in the doldrums under its guidance. At present, the industry is facing a two-way squeeze of rising costs and selling prices under pressure, narrowing profit margins and dampening production enthusiasm. Fundamentally: Cost side: fluorite and sulphuric acid prices remained firm, providing clear bottom support for aluminum fluoride. Supply side: industry operating rates stayed in the doldrums, with no significant increase in production, and overall supply and demand remained subdued. Demand side: rigid demand from aluminum remained stable, but there was no obvious incremental growth, and procurement was mainly as needed. Overall, the strong support effect from fluorite and sulphuric acid on the cost side became more prominent, coupled with low industry operating rates and shrinking supply. Aluminum fluoride's price center is expected to move steadily higher next month, showing a mild strengthening trend. Going forward, close and continuous attention should be paid to dynamic changes on the raw material cost side, as well as marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

Overall, cost support remains, but has not yet formed strong upward momentum, combined with aluminum enterprises' strong push for lower prices, aluminum fluoride prices in March are expected to be mainly stable with a slight weakening trend.

SMM February 26: This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises focused on fulfilling orders. Approaching month-end, the market awaited new price guidance, resulting in sluggish trading activity and stable prices. To date, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,480-10,750 yuan/mt; cryolite prices remained largely stable, with SMM cryolite quotes at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: Prices of core raw materials for aluminum fluoride were largely stable. Specifically, delivery-to-factory prices for 97% fluorite powder held steady, currently concentrated in the range of 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, production halts in north China due to low temperatures and the Chinese New Year holiday reduced market supply. Coupled with routine environmental and safety supervision, small and medium-sized mines experienced unstable operations. Imports were mainly medium and low-grade, with limited high-grade supply, prolonging structural tightness. Although supply contracted, high inventory in some regions and sluggish shipments exerted some downward pressure on prices. Demand side remained weak, with core downstream hydrofluoric acid industry operating at low rates, resulting in weak digestion of fluorite powder and lack of strong momentum. Current market transactions were sluggish, and prices saw no major adjustments. Aluminum hydroxide prices held steady, with the SMM weighted average price at 1,611 yuan/mt, flat MoM. The sulfuric acid market continued to fluctuate at highs, providing some cost support for aluminum fluoride. Overall, rigid cost support for aluminum fluoride raw materials remained. Supply-demand side: In terms of supply, some previously idled enterprises in the domestic aluminum fluoride industry gradually prepared to resume production after the holiday, raising expectations for supply recovery. However, some enterprises conducted planned maintenance, and high costs constrained production enthusiasm. Industry-wide operating rates remained in the doldrums, with relatively ample spot supply in the market. Demand side, operating capacity in the downstream aluminum industry stayed stable, providing rigid support for aluminum fluoride demand. Post-holiday, downstream enterprises gradually resumed procurement pace, and market activity recovered. However, cautious procurement sentiment led enterprises to restock as needed and maintain low inventory, resulting in limited actual purchases and insufficient support for aluminum fluoride price increases. Brief comment: Current stable trends in raw material prices such as fluorite and sulfuric acid provided strong bottom support for aluminum fluoride prices. Supply side, ample spot supply and post-holiday production resumptions were expected to increase supply further. Demand side, only rigid restocking from the aluminum industry drove a slight rebound, lacking significant boosts. Considering multiple factors, SMM expected aluminum fluoride prices to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Future monitoring should focus on dynamic changes in raw material costs and marginal adjustments in procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

SMM February 12 News: This week, domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises focused on order deliveries, with aluminum fluoride prices largely stable. The SMM aluminum fluoride price closed at 10,480-10,750 yuan/mt; cryolite prices remained stable, with the SMM cryolite quote at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: Prices of core raw materials for aluminum fluoride were largely stable. Specifically, delivery-to-factory prices for 97% fluorite powder were mainly steady, currently concentrated in the range of 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, conventional shutdowns occurred in north China due to low temperatures and the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to a decline in market supply; coupled with normalized environmental protection and safety supervision, operations at small and medium-sized mines were unstable. Imports were mainly medium and low grade, with limited supplementation of high-grade sources, prolonging structural tightness. Although the supply side contracted, social inventory remained high and shipments were sluggish, exerting some downward pressure on prices. Demand side performance was weak, with operating rates in the core downstream hydrofluoric acid industry remaining low, resulting in weak digestion capacity for fluorite powder and difficulty forming strong momentum. Market transactions were currently sluggish, and prices saw no major adjustments. Aluminum hydroxide prices stopped falling and stabilized, with the SMM weighted average price reported at 1,611 yuan/mt, flat MoM. The sulphuric acid market maintained a fluctuating and consolidating trend at highs, providing some support for aluminum fluoride costs. Overall, rigid cost support from the aluminum fluoride raw material side remains. Supply-demand side: In terms of supply, lower raw material prices effectively alleviated some cost pressure for enterprises, but due to strict constraints from environmental protection and energy consumption policies, dual restrictions from raw material costs and profit margins, as well as impacts from maintenance and production cuts at some enterprises, industry supply declined. On the demand side, operating aluminum capacity remained basically stable, providing solid rigid demand support for aluminum fluoride, but enterprises maintained a cautious procurement attitude, mainly restocking based on demand. Brief Review: Recently, raw materials such as fluorite and sulphuric acid on the cost side operated largely steadily, still providing rigid support for aluminum fluoride prices. The supply side has ample spot cargo, and coupled with expectations of production resumptions after the holiday, market supply is expected to further release; the demand side saw only a slight recovery relying on rigid restocking by aluminum enterprises, with insufficient incremental support. Under the interplay of multiple factors, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Subsequent attention should remain on dynamic changes in raw material costs and marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

SMM News on June 12: This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises have focused on fulfilling orders, with aluminum fluoride prices holding steady. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 9,630-9,900 yuan/mt, while SMM cryolite was quoted at 7,500-9,500 yuan/mt. From the perspective of raw material supply, the raw material market has shown slight divergence. The fluorite market remains sluggish, with the current tight supply situation in the fluorite powder market easing somewhat, coupled with the supplement of imported sources, the market supply side is relatively ample. On the demand side, end-use consumption is weak, and downstream enterprises exhibit strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that fluorite prices will continue to weaken. As of now, the average delivery-to-factory price of 97% fluorite powder is 3,325 yuan/mt. Prices have remained weak this week, down 1.25% MoM. Additionally, the market trends for other raw materials of aluminum fluoride vary. Affected by the easing of alumina prices, the price of aluminum hydroxide has held steady this week, with an ex-factory average price of 2,131 yuan/mt. Sulphuric acid prices have held up well. Overall, despite the weakening of fluorite prices, the strength of sulphuric acid and the stable prices of aluminum hydroxide have kept the production costs of aluminum fluoride enterprises fluctuating at highs. Coupled with the pressure on product prices, enterprises still face significant operational and production pressures.​ Due to poor profits of aluminum fluoride enterprises, the enthusiasm for production at the supply side is low, leading to a long-term low level of capacity utilisation rate. Although the operating conditions of downstream aluminum enterprises are good on the demand side, procurement sentiment is average, mainly focusing on just-in-time procurement. Therefore, the support for aluminum fluoride prices from both supply and demand sides is relatively limited. Brief Commentary: The current aluminum fluoride market continues to exhibit a pattern of weak supply and demand. The decline in aluminum fluoride prices and the high raw material costs have formed a dual pressure, continuously compressing the profit margins of enterprises. Even though some raw material prices have fluctuated, the overall cost support remains strong, making it difficult to alleviate the operational and production pressures of enterprises. The operating rate continues to run at a low level, lacking short-term rebound momentum. Coupled with the lack of favorable support on the demand side, it is expected that aluminum fluoride prices will mainly hold steady in the short term.

SMM June 6 Update: During the May 9 to June 6 period, aluminum fluoride prices continued to weaken. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 9,630-9,900 yuan/mt, and SMM cryolite prices were quoted at 7,500-9,500 yuan/mt. On the raw material side, for fluorspar, the current delivery-to-factory price for 97% fluorspar powder concentrated in the 3,200-3,550 yuan/mt range. Throughout the period, the fluorspar market remained sluggish, with intense supply and demand bargaining, and the price center continuously declined. In terms of supply, northern enterprises gradually resumed production as temperatures rose, coupled with a large influx of low-priced foreign trade goods into the market, leading to a significant YoY increase in overall supply, and continuous pressure on the supply side. However, restricted mining and low inventory levels provided some support to the supply side, creating a mixed situation. Demand remained weak, with sluggish end-use consumption, and downstream enterprises generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in strong pressure to drive down prices, making market transactions noticeably sluggish. As a result, fluorspar prices accelerated their downward trend. Despite some factors resisting the decline on the supply side, the weak market situation is unlikely to change in the short term, and prices are expected to continue weakening. SMM data shows that the current average delivery-to-factory price for 97% fluorspar powder is 3,367 yuan/mt, a 6.03% decrease from May 9. Meanwhile, the price of another key raw material, aluminum hydroxide, saw a significant increase due to mine-related factors, causing alumina prices to rise rapidly, and the current ex-factory average price for aluminum hydroxide, as tracked by SMM, is 2,131 yuan/mt, a 13.68% increase from May 9. Additionally, high sulphuric acid prices have increased cost support for aluminum fluoride. The aluminum fluoride market currently exhibits weakness in both supply and demand. On the supply side, since the aluminum fluoride tender pricing was determined in May, product prices have been continuously declining, almost reaching the cost line, significantly compressing profit margins. This has led to decreased production enthusiasm and long-term low capacity utilization rates. The market has adopted a "produce based on sales, cautious production scheduling" strategy, lacking motivation for expansion in the short term, and it is expected that the supply scale will remain low and stable. On the demand side, although there are regional adjustments in the aluminum industry, such as the relocation of Shandong's capacity to the south, the national total capacity remains largely stable, with no significant increase in demand for aluminum fluoride. Downstream enterprises, driven by cost control and market sentiment, generally adopt a procurement strategy that only meets basic needs, making it difficult for demand to achieve breakthrough growth. Brief Comment: During this period, the June tender pricing for benchmark downstream aluminum enterprises was finalized, and aluminum fluoride market prices maintained a weakening trend. The June benchmark enterprise tender price dropped 150-200 yuan/mt to 9,630-9,700 yuan/mt. The current aluminum fluoride market continues to experience weak supply and demand. After entering June, prices of both raw materials and finished products have declined, and corporate profitability has not improved. Most enterprises are experiencing losses, and it is difficult to increase the low operating rates of enterprises in the short term. Coupled with the absence of positive factors on the demand side, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Moreover, there is an expectation of a decline in raw material prices in June, and prices are expected to remain relatively weak next month.

During this period, the tender pricing for June by downstream benchmark aluminum enterprises was finalized. The market price of aluminum fluoride continued to weaken, with the tender price of benchmark enterprises in June declining by 150-200 yuan/mt to 9,630-9,700 yuan/mt. Currently, the aluminum fluoride market continues to experience weak supply and demand. After entering June, prices of both raw materials and finished products have declined, and corporate profitability has not improved. Most enterprises are experiencing losses, with low operating rates that are unlikely to increase in the short term. Coupled with the absence of positive factors on the demand side, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Additionally, with the anticipated decline in raw material prices in June, prices are expected to remain weak next month.

SMM News on June 5: This week, the tender prices for aluminum fluoride were finalised by downstream benchmark enterprises. Aluminum fluoride prices declined slightly, with SMM aluminum fluoride prices closing at 9,630-9,900 yuan/mt as of now, while SMM cryolite was quoted at 7,500-9,500 yuan/mt. From the perspective of raw material supply, the raw material market fluctuated downward. The fluorite market remained sluggish, and the current tight supply situation in the fluorite powder market has eased somewhat, supplemented by imported sources, making the market supply side relatively abundant. On the demand side, end-use consumption was weak, and downstream enterprises had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that fluorite prices will continue to weaken. As of now, the average delivery-to-factory price of 97% fluorite powder is 3,367 yuan/mt. Prices continued to weaken this week, down 4.7% WoW. Additionally, the market for other raw materials of aluminum fluoride also showed a weakening trend. Affected by the easing of alumina prices, aluminum hydroxide prices remained stable this week, with an average ex-factory price of 2,131 yuan/mt, up approximately 1.09% WoW. Sulphuric acid prices remained relatively stable. Overall, the production cost of aluminum fluoride showed a downward trend. Due to poor profits of aluminum fluoride enterprises, the enthusiasm for production on the supply side was low, resulting in a long-term low level of capacity utilisation rate. Although the operation of downstream aluminum enterprises on the demand side was good, procurement sentiment was average, mainly to maintain just-in-time procurement. Therefore, the support for aluminum fluoride prices from both supply and demand sides was relatively limited. Brief Commentary: Downstream benchmark aluminum enterprises have completed tender pricing this week. In June, aluminum fluoride prices fell significantly to 9,630-9,700 yuan/mt, a decrease of 150-200 yuan from the previous month. The current aluminum fluoride market continues to exhibit weak supply and demand, with a poor performance in the raw material market and a decline in cost support, leading to a slight drop in prices this month. With both raw material and finished product prices declining, corporate profitability has not improved, and enterprises continue to operate at a low level. Coupled with the absence of positive factors on the demand side, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.

SMM News, May 29: This week, aluminum fluoride producers mainly focused on order deliveries, with mediocre market transactions and stable prices. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 9,800-10,100 yuan/mt, while SMM cryolite prices were quoted at 7,500-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material supply showed a divergent trend. The fluorite market remained sluggish, with increasing supply-side pressure. As northern producers gradually resumed production amid rising temperatures and a surge in low-priced imported goods, supply grew significantly YoY. However, mining restrictions and low inventory provided support, resulting in a fierce tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. Demand side, end-use consumption remained weak, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach and aggressive price negotiations, leading to sluggish market transactions. Fluorite prices are expected to continue weakening. As of now, the average delivery-to-factory price for 97% fluorite powder stood at 3,533 yuan/mt, remaining stable WoW. In contrast, aluminum hydroxide prices extended their upward trend driven by rising alumina prices, with the average ex-works price reaching 2,108 yuan/mt, up 7.66% WoW. Sulphuric acid prices maintained high-level adjustments. Overall, aluminum fluoride production costs showed an upward trend. Supply side, affected by declining aluminum fluoride prices, producers' profit margins shrank significantly, leading to markedly reduced operating enthusiasm and persistently low capacity utilisation rates. Supply remained sales-oriented, with cautious production schedules, making it difficult to achieve supply growth in the short term. The market is expected to maintain low-level stability for an extended period. Demand side, despite regional adjustments such as the relocation of Shandong's aluminum capacity, national total capacity remained stable, failing to substantially boost aluminum fluoride demand. Downstream enterprises adopted just-in-time procurement strategies due to cost control and market sentiment, resulting in stagnant demand and a market deadlock of weak supply and demand. Brief comment: The aluminum fluoride market continued to exhibit weak supply and demand, with relatively stable prices this week. Cost side, rising aluminum hydroxide prices pushed up production costs; supply side maintained conservative production schedules due to profit compression; demand side saw just-in-time procurement in the aluminum industry, with the overall market lacking growth momentum. Near month-end, trading sentiment remained steady, with new tenders imminent. Supported by rising costs, aluminum fluoride producers showed strong reluctance to budge on prices, awaiting fresh price direction guidance.