[SMM Aluminum Bulletin] This week, prices of aluminum fluoride raw materials diverged, while overall production costs stayed high. The upstream 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,150-3,500 yuan/mt and persistent regional price spreads. The widening domestic raw material supply gap provided strong support for fluorite prices. Meanwhile, purchasing interest from downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises recovered slightly, and just-in-need stockpiling increased, with favorable supply-demand developments reinforcing fluorite’s upward trend.

SMM July 23 News: This week, trading sentiment in China's aluminum fluoride market weakened, and prices held steady overall. As of now, SMM's mainstream quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; the cryolite market also stayed stable, with SMM's cryolite quotation at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt, showing no significant fluctuations. Raw material side: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material prices diverged, while comprehensive production costs stayed high. The upstream 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note, with mainstream delivered prices of 3,150-3,500 yuan/mt and persistent regional price spreads. Supply side, domestic mine safety supervision tightened, standardized controls on underground mining operations were implemented, and technological transformation and rectification cycles extended, chronically constraining effective capacity release. Combined with port freight restrictions during Mongolia's Naadam festival, imported fluorite ore supply saw periodic reductions, widening the domestic raw material supply gap and providing strong support for fluorite prices. Meanwhile, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises' procurement enthusiasm recovered slightly, with restocking for rigid demand increasing. Supply-demand dual positives reinforced fluorite's upward trend. For supporting raw materials, the domestic aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower, with a weighted average price of 1,687 yuan/mt, down 0.18% MoM; the sulphuric acid market high-end prices loosened, and the transaction center moved lower steadily. After offsetting the mixed raw material changes, aluminum fluoride's comprehensive production cost remained elevated. Supply side: The industry remained stuck in a negative cycle of high costs, production losses, and low operating rates. Rising fluorite prices further worsened enterprises' losses on production, with losses across the industry continuing to widen. Most enterprises stepped up equipment maintenance and flexible production cuts, and the overall operating rate kept falling. Currently, enterprises mostly adopted strategies to contract operations, prioritizing delivery of long-term contract orders, with no new production schedules planned. Effective supply growth in the market was limited, and spot cargo was tight overall. Demand side: Downstream aluminum industry's operating capacity stayed high, providing rigid demand support for aluminum fluoride and underpinning market bottom prices. However, aluminum enterprises' overall procurement sentiment remained cautious and conservative, mainly restocking in small quantities for rigid demand. Strong sentiment to push for lower prices and wait-and-see prevailed, with no concentrated restocking or additional procurement, which was insufficient to drive market prices higher. Brief review: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material trends diverged. Fluorite strengthened and lifted the cost floor, while aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid pulled back slightly, offsetting some pressure. Industry overall cost remained elevated, enterprise profit margins were hard to recover, and production motivation stayed weak. Currently, tug-of-war between upstream and downstream was intense, lacking drivers for one-sided price moves, and market transactions were mainly sporadic rigid demand orders. Short-term aluminum fluoride and cryolite prices are expected to continue the stalemate with stable quotes. Subsequent focus will be on tracking trends in raw material cost fluctuations such as fluorite, as well as marginal changes in downstream aluminum enterprises' procurement pace.

SMM, July 16: This week, transaction sentiment in China's aluminum fluoride market softened somewhat, while aluminum fluoride prices remained stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; cryolite prices held steady, with SMM quoting 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: China's 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note this week, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,450 yuan/mt, while regional price spreads persisted. Supply side, affected by safety incidents, nationwide mine safety inspections intensified markedly, and most mines in core production areas like Zhejiang and Fujian have entered shutdown self-inspection and rectification stages, dragging down the industry's overall operating rate and tightening spot cargo availability. Although production resumptions at some northern mines and increased imports from Mongolia provided partial supplement, supply remained tight overall amid widespread sentiment of holding back from selling and holding prices firm among ore sellers. Demand side, still in the traditional off-season, fluorine chemical enterprises kept operating rates reduced, hydrofluoric acid operating rates stayed low, and downstream demand in refrigerants and fluoropolymers was sluggish, with procurement mostly need-based, capping price upside. As the support from tightening spot supply gradually emerged, market sentiment improved, and transaction prices edged up. However, with no fundamental improvement in off-season demand, the sustainability and upside room of this rebound still face pressure. China's aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower this week, with SMM weighted average price at 1,690 yuan/mt, edging down 0.41% WoW. The sulphuric acid market consolidated at highs. Overall, raw material price trends diverged, and comprehensive production costs for aluminum fluoride remained high. Supply side, trapped in a negative cycle of high costs, deep losses, and low operating rates, rising raw material prices exacerbated cost-side losses, widening the loss margin, prompting more maintenance shutdowns and flexible production adjustments, further reducing overall operating rates. Some enterprises adopted a contraction strategy, prioritizing long-term contract deliveries with virtually no new production schedules, limiting effective supply growth. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing a rigid demand floor for aluminum fluoride, but aluminum smelters remained cautious in procurement, mainly restocking on a need-to basis and pushing for lower prices, with no incremental purchase demand released. Commentary: This week, upstream raw materials for aluminum fluoride diverged—fluorite edged up, aluminum hydroxide weakened, and sulphuric acid consolidated at highs. Industry-wide production costs stayed high, making it difficult for producers to restore profitability, and production stockpiling sentiment was weak. Currently, the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream is intense, with no clear directional driver, and transactions mostly involve sporadic need-based restocking. Short-term aluminum fluoride prices are expected to hold in a stalemate, with limited room for movement. Close attention should be paid to raw material cost dynamics and marginal adjustments in downstream aluminum enterprises' procurement pace.

China's sulphuric acid market remains stagnant at high levels, with intensifying regional divergence [SMM Sulphuric Acid Weekly Review]

SMM July 9 News: This week, domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises saw moderate trading atmosphere, and aluminum fluoride prices remained stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride price closed at 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; cryolite prices held steady, with SMM cryolite quoted at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: This week, China’s 97% wet fluorite powder market was broadly stable, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt, while regional price spreads persisted. On the supply side, national mine safety inspections intensified—regulatory oversight tightened notably following safety incidents, leading many mines in key production areas like Zhejiang and Fujian to halt production for rectification and self-checks. Overall operating rates declined, and spot supply tightened. Miners showed a strong willingness to hold back from selling and hold prices firm, offsetting the increased supply from production resumptions in the north and arrivals from Mongolian imports. On the demand side, overall weakness prevailed—large fluorochemical plants reduced operating loads, hydrofluoric acid operating rates moved lower, and downstream demand for refrigerants and fluoropolymers contracted. Procurement enthusiasm for fluorite was insufficient, limiting upward price momentum. Currently, tightening supply and weak demand are offsetting each other, and fluorspar prices will likely stay rangebound in the near term. This week, China’s aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower, with the SMM aluminum hydroxide weighted average price at 1,697 yuan/mt, down 1.22% WoW. The sulphuric acid market stood at high levels with narrow fluctuations. Looking at overall raw material performance, raw material price trends diverged, but aluminum fluoride’s comprehensive production costs remained high. On the supply side, the sector is mired in a negative cycle of high costs, deep losses, and low operating rates. Rising raw material prices exacerbated losses for enterprises, widening loss coverage. Industry equipment maintenance and flexible production increased, and overall operating rates continued to decline. It is understood that some enterprises have adopted contractionary strategies, prioritizing delivery of long-term contracts with virtually no new production scheduling, limiting effective incremental supply in the market. On the demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained high, providing a rigid demand floor for aluminum fluoride. However, aluminum smelters remained cautious in procurement, mainly making just-in-time restocking purchases and pushing for lower prices while waiting and seeing, with no release of incremental procurement demand. Commentary: This week, the aluminum fluoride raw material market diverged slightly—fluorite prices were stable, aluminum hydroxide drifted lower, and sulphuric acid prices corrected at high levels. The industry’s comprehensive costs stayed high, making it difficult for enterprises to restore operating profits and enthusiasm for production. Currently, the market lacks a trending driver, with a stalemate in the upstream-downstream tug-of-war. Transactions were mainly just-in-time procurement. In the near term, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to remain stable, with limited room for wild swings. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes on the raw material cost side, as well as marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

SMM, July 2 – This week, the aluminum fluoride tender price for benchmark downstream enterprises was finalised, and aluminum fluoride prices edged down. As of now, SMM’s aluminum fluoride price closed at 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; the cryolite price was generally stable with slight rise, with SMM’s cryolite quotation at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side, this week, the domestic 97% fluorite wet powder market was overall stable, with mainstream delivered price at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt and regional price differences still existing. Supply side, the nationwide special safety inspections for mine production continued to intensify, and earlier safety accidents triggered a comprehensive upgrade of regulatory supervision, significantly tightening safety management standards across the industry. Many key mines in major fluorite producing areas such as Zhejiang and Fujian temporarily suspended production for rectification and conducted safety self-inspections, causing the mine operating rate in the region to pull back significantly and spot supply to contract substantially. Under the high-pressure regulatory environment, domestic miners showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, keeping spot circulation tight, which effectively offset supply increases from the resumption of operations in northern producing areas and the continuous arrival of Mongolian import cargoes at ports. The demand side continued to weaken overall, capping upside room for the fluorite market. Top-tier domestic fluorochemical enterprises simultaneously reduced operating loads, with the operating load of the downstream hydrofluoric acid industry continuing to decline, and demand in end-user segments such as refrigerants and fluoropolymers contracting in sync, directly dragging down downstream procurement demand for fluorite. Overall, the fluorite market was in a two-way game pattern of contracting supply and weak demand, with bullish and bearish factors offsetting each other, and a high probability of maintaining a sideways consolidation pattern in the short term. This week, the domestic aluminum hydroxide market held up well in a narrow range, with SMM aluminum hydroxide weighted average price at 1,718 yuan/mt, up 1.18% WoW. The sulphuric acid market consolidated at highs in a narrow range. Viewed from the raw material side, divergent trends in raw material prices lifted the overall production cost of aluminum fluoride. The supply side was mired in a negative cycle of high costs, deep losses, and sluggish operating rates. Rising raw material prices worsened enterprise losses, expanding the loss-making scope. Plant maintenance and flexible production adjustments increased, and the overall operating rate continued to slide. It is understood that some enterprises adopted contractionary operating strategies, prioritising deliveries under long-term contracts with essentially no new production schedules, so market effective supply increment was limited. On the demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained high, providing rigid demand support for aluminum fluoride, but aluminum smelters were cautious in procurement, mainly restocking based on rigid demand while pushing for lower prices and waiting on the sidelines, with no release of incremental procurement demand. Commentary: The aluminum fluoride tender price for benchmark aluminum enterprises in July was officially finalised, down 330 yuan/mt MoM, and the transaction center of the market moved down accordingly. Cost side, fluorite prices stabilized at highs, aluminum hydroxide edged up slightly, and sulphuric acid stayed high, continuously supporting the production cost of aluminum fluoride. The industry remained in a pattern of high costs, low profits, and low operating rates. In the short term, high operating rates in downstream aluminum will still provide rigid demand support, but procurement will remain predominantly need-based restocking, and the market lacks new demand drivers. Currently, the market price has largely completed the pass-through of the tender price decline. Against the backdrop of continuous cost-side support and rigid demand cushioning, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to mainly stay stable in the short term. Going forward, focus needs to be on raw material price changes and downstream procurement pace adjustments.

At end-June, trading in the aluminum fluoride market was sluggish, with the industry waiting for new long-term contract tender prices to be settled. In the short term, high raw material prices provide solid cost support for aluminum fluoride, but bearish constraints from weak downstream fluorine chemicals and the decline in long-term hydrofluoric acid contracts are also in play. Amid the tug-of-war, aluminum fluoride prices in July have little room for significant rise or fall, and the market will continue to consolidate at highs within a range.

In the short term, high raw material prices provide solid cost support for aluminum fluoride, but bearish constraints from weak downstream fluorine chemicals and the decline in long-term hydrofluoric acid contracts are also in play. Amid the tug-of-war, aluminum fluoride prices in July have little room for significant rise or fall, and the market will continue to consolidate at highs within a range.

[SMM Aluminum Express] Recently, Shandong Zhenbo Chemical Co., Ltd. issued the second public notice of environmental impact assessment for its 90,000 mt anhydrous aluminum fluoride and high-end fluorinated materials co-production project. The project will be built in two phases. Phase I includes construction of a 60,000 mt/year anhydrous hydrogen fluoride production unit and a 90,000 mt/year anhydrous aluminum fluoride production unit, along with supporting public and auxiliary facilities such as raw material warehouses, tank farms, and wastewater treatment stations; Phase II includes construction of a 20,000 mt/year electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid production unit. The project will add approximately 500 units/sets of equipment, including fluidized beds, reactor furnaces, and high-temperature fans.

[SMM Aluminum Brief] This week, the aluminum fluoride market lacked clear trend drivers. High raw material costs continued to underpin market prices, and the industry operated with high costs, low profits, and low operating rates. In the short term, raw material prices dominated the market, downstream demand growth was insufficient, and the market continued the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. Next month, cost support for aluminum fluoride will be firm, but due to sluggish terminal procurement and slight downward adjustments in upstream hydrofluoric acid, room for price fluctuations will be limited.