Overall, this week the aluminum processing industry remained in the doldrums under the dual pressure of deepening off-season effects and the aluminum price rebound. Export support faded, and recovery in domestic demand was slow. It is expected that the overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry will maintain a weak trend in August.

Lightweight Intelligent Manufacturing, Green Future — Linking the New Aluminum Journey 2027 The 4th Central China (Zhengzhou) International Aluminum Industry Exhibition Date: October 15-17, 2027 Venue: Zhengzhou International Convention and Exhibition Center I. Introduction The Zhengzhou International Aluminum Industry Exhibition has been successfully held for three editions, with each edition receiving guidance and support from organizations including the Henan Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Henan Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, Henan Provincial Department of Commerce, Zhengzhou Municipal Government, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology, and Gongyi Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology. The last edition was successfully held from October 15 to 17, 2025 at the Zhengzhou International Convention and Exhibition Center, attracting more than 200 enterprises from China and overseas, and comprehensively showcasing cutting-edge products and innovative solutions across the aluminum industry chain. During the exhibition, a total of six themed forums and 269 supply-demand procurement matchmaking sessions were held, drawing more than 20,000 professional visitors. The 4th Central China (Zhengzhou) International Aluminum Industry Exhibition 2027 (hereinafter referred to as the “Zhengzhou Aluminum Industry Exhibition”) will continue to adhere to the principle of “serving the industry, promoting exchange, and driving transformation” and will be grandly held from October 15 to 17, 2027 at the Zhengzhou International Convention and Exhibition Center. With the theme “Lightweight Intelligent Manufacturing, Green Future — Linking the New Aluminum Journey,” this edition will comprehensively upgrade its content and operation model, focusing on new materials, new equipment, new intelligent manufacturing, and new applications. It will build a three-in-one exhibition system of “premium brand for high-end aluminum applications + full-chain ecological closed loop + distinctive application scenarios,” supplemented by multiple targeted supply-demand networking sessions and high-end seminars to effectively ensure exhibition effectiveness and business conversion. We sincerely invite aluminum processing enterprises, equipment manufacturers, downstream application enterprises, scientific research institutions, and related service providers from China and overseas to gather in Zhengzhou and share new opportunities in the aluminum industry development. II. Organizational Structure Proposed Guidance: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) Organizer: Henan Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Co-organizer: Henan Xiangyu Exhibition Service Co., Ltd. Henan Dianji Enterprise Management Consulting Co., Ltd. III. Exhibition Content and Innovation Aspects Will Be Comprehensively Upgraded Feature 1: Focusing on New Materials and Lightweighting to Build a “Premium Brand for High-End Aluminum Applications” An “Aluminum Deep Processing Boutique Pavilion” will be set up to deeply interpret the high value-added characteristics of aluminum semis. The exhibition area will systematically present high-end deep-processed products such as NEV aluminum, battery foil, and aluminum for 3C electronics, comprehensively driving the aluminum processing industry to leap from traditional building materials and packaging sectors toward high-tech, high-value-added directions, and highlighting the brand value of aluminum semis in high-end application fields. Feature 2: Building a “Full-Chain Ecological Closed-Loop Zone” to Panoramically Display the Life Cycle of the Aluminum Industry from Mine to Recycling A “Full-Chain Ecological Closed-Loop Zone” will be set up, taking the three dimensions of upstream resource security, secondary aluminum recycling and utilization, and comprehensive recovery of renewable resources as the main line, systematically showcasing the completeness and synergy of the aluminum industry ecosystem and highlighting the green, low-carbon, and recyclable development concept. Upstream aluminum ore enterprises from China and overseas will be invited to hold an aluminum ingot raw material supply-demand networking session. Feature 3: Curating an “Aluminum + NEVs and Robots” Distinctive Application Scenario Exhibition Area Focusing on the two innovative application hotspots of NEVs and robots, it will centrally showcase innovative solutions and typical application results of high-end aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil in these fields, helping exhibitors accurately meet the demands of emerging industries and expand high-growth market space. IV. Exhibition Content This edition will adopt a “5+1” theme matrix, breaking away from the traditional single raw material zoning model, and set up the following six exhibition zones: (I) Premium Brand Showcase Zone for High-End Aluminum Applications 1. Automotive lightweight aluminum: doors, engine hoods, battery trays, wheel hubs, etc. 2. High-end aluminum foil series: battery foil, double zero foil, PV/semiconductor high-purity aluminum foil, electronic aluminum foil, pharmaceutical packaging foil. 3. Aluminum for aerospace and high-end equipment: ceramic aluminum new materials, mirror aluminum, aviation-grade aluminum plate. 4. Aluminum for 3C electronics and rail transit (mobile phone middle frames, high-speed rail carriage profiles, etc.) (II) Green, Low-Carbon and Secondary Aluminum Zone (Policy Hotspot Zone) 1. Aluminum scrap closed-loop recycling pre-treatment line: high-precision eddy current separators, X-ray sorting systems, integrated crushing and impurity removal equipment 2. High-efficiency regeneration melting and casting equipment: new-type double chamber furnaces, side-well reverberatory furnaces, regenerative combustion systems 3. Environmental protection dust removal systems: baghouse filters, SCR denitrification devices, and dioxin suppression technology 4. “Urban Mine” themed demonstration area: centralized display of secondary aluminum industrial parks (III) Smart Factory and Digital Transformation Zone (Future Trend Zone) 1. Industrial robots (palletizing, welding), intelligent stereoscopic warehouses 2. MES systems, AI quality inspection equipment, digital twin factory solutions (IV) High-End Manufacturing Equipment Zone Melting and casting equipment, extrusion/rolling equipment, surface treatment equipment (anodized, spraying), heat treatment equipment, testing instruments, auxiliary materials, etc. (V) Service and Support Zone Industrial park displays, logistics solutions, nonferrous metals futures / supply chain finance, university scientific research achievements transformation (VI) Aluminum + Distinctive Application Scenario Exhibition Zone (Immersive Experience) 1. NEV, battery parts, robots, and other innovative application displays 2. On-site touch and experience the actual application of aluminum semis in high-end fields V. Concurrent Events During the exhibition, multiple high-standard forums and networking events will be held to help enterprises broaden their horizons and connect with resources: 1. 2027 Central China International Aluminum Processing Innovation and Development Conference 2. 2027 Central China NEV and Robot Innovation Application Development Forum 3. 2027 Central China Aluminum Extrusion Industry Upstream-Downstream Cooperation Summit Forum 4. Aluminum Industry Intelligent Transformation and Digitalization Supply-Demand Networking Session 5. 2027 Secondary Aluminum Industry Chain Development Forum 6. The 2nd Futures-Physical Integration Forum to Boost High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry 7. The 1st “Central China Aluminum Valley” Cup – Aluminum Extrusion / Melting and Casting Technical Competition / Simulation Contest (Innovative Event) VI. Comprehensive Promotion to Precisely Invite Visitors (I) Industry media will periodically publish exhibition information: World Aluminum Network, Aluminum Plus Network, Aluminum Road Network, Henan Nonferrous Metals Network, China Nonferrous Metals, Nonferrous Metals Processing, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Technical Service Platform. (II) Online media continuous promotion: publicity and promotion on People’s Daily Online, Baidu, Sina, Toutiao, Douyin, WeChat, etc. (III) Precise database activation: integrating 300,000+ industry data, classified into A/B/C three levels, with one-on-one phone invitations for Category A covering core decision-makers to improve conversion rates. (IV) Embedding into downstream industry conferences: Automotive Engineering Annual Conference, New Energy Battery Lightweighting Seminar, Home Appliance Technology Conference, etc., with on-site delegation for invitations to reach end-use industry procurement and engineers. (V) Targeted invitations to industrial parks: in-depth visits to industry demonstration bases and aluminum material application industry clusters for “one-on-one” visits and distribution of invitation letters. (VI) Key invitations to VIP buyers: sending formal invitation letters to complete vehicles, parts, robot enterprise factories, aerospace enterprises, beer & beverage, packaging, construction, and large dealers, focusing on buyers’ core requirements, providing VIP channels and other value-added services to ensure effective matchmaking at on-site procurement meetings. (VII) Exhibitor customer invitation incentives: exclusive electronic invitation letters, VIP treatment for attending clients, recognition and next-edition discounts for exhibitors, encouraging exhibitors to actively invite customers and expand visitor scale. (VIII) Organization of group professional buyers: cooperating with industry associations and industrial park management committees in Henan and surrounding provinces to organize delegations of aluminum processing enterprises and downstream user enterprises to visit. Free bus transportation will be arranged for industrial parks or units organizing visiting delegations of over 30 people. (IX) Overseas investment attraction based on the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on inviting aluminum semis purchasers from Central Asia and Southeast Asia as well as internationally renowned equipment manufacturers. Welcome to inquire at 13903820977 (same as WeChat)

[SMM Aluminum Downstream Analysis: July Aluminum Processing PMI at 42.2%, All Segments Enter Contraction Territory; End-Use Demand Weakens, Export Divergence Hinders Near-Term Recovery] In July, the aluminum processing industry exhibited a pattern of broad-based off-season weakness across all segments with structural divergence. Only the new energy sector demonstrated demand resilience, while domestic demand in other sectors contracted broadly and significantly. Export performance was uneven, with aluminum wire and cable exports plummeting and dragging down the industry. Combined with raw material constraints, high-temperature production restrictions, and disturbances from price spread recovery, overall industry activity remains deeply mired in contraction territory, and near-term recovery momentum is insufficient.

On July 20, 2026, a delegation from Shanghai Metals Market Information Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM) visited Xingfa International (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. The delegation included: Logan Lu, CEO of SMM Cason Lou, Director of Aluminum Processing, Marketing Department Lexi Chen, Key Account Manager for Overseas Information Sales Khai Yuen Chin, Senior Overseas Aluminum Analyst The delegation received a warm welcome from the management team and department heads at Xingfa Aluminum’s Vietnam base. The two sides held in-depth discussions on the development of an aluminum pricing mechanism in Vietnam, the establishment of international credibility, and coordinated growth across the aluminum industry. Focusing on Vietnam Aluminum Pricing and Exploring a New Market Pricing Mechanism During the meeting, the two sides conducted a detailed analysis of the current pricing landscape in Vietnam’s aluminum market. At present, Vietnam still lacks a locally developed aluminum price benchmark with broad international recognition and credibility. SMM stated that establishing a Vietnam aluminum price reference system widely recognized by the international market would be a crucial step toward improving pricing transparency and facilitating cross-border trade. It will also be one of SMM’s key priorities in the coming period. To support this initiative, SMM will conduct extensive research involving Xingfa Aluminum and other representative aluminum companies in Vietnam. SMM plans to officially launch the SMM Vietnam Aluminum Price and provide a detailed explanation of its pricing methodology at the SMM AICE 2026 Southeast Asia Aluminum Industry Conference, to be held in Ho Chi Minh City on November 19–20. The two sides also exchanged views on emerging industry topics, including the supply-and-demand landscape for primary aluminum in Southeast Asia and the impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on the aluminum industry. CBAM and international carbon certification, in particular, have become major areas of concern for the global aluminum sector. SMM will therefore organize a dedicated session at the conference and invite international experts to provide professional insights and analysis. Deepening Engagement in Southeast Asia as SMM Accelerates Its Expansion in Vietnam Since the beginning of this year, SMM has significantly accelerated the development of its pricing services in Southeast Asia. Since July 3, 2026, SMM has introduced a series of new price assessments for 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in Southeast Asia, as well as CIF Southeast Asia aluminum premiums and discounts. Among them, the Vietnam 6063 non-homogenized aluminum billet processing fee and related price assessment have officially been launched. In addition, the Vietnam Metals Recycling Association visited SMM’s headquarters on July 10. The two sides reached several cooperation agreements concerning services for the recycled metals industry chain. Through continued local cooperation and the integration of international resources, SMM is providing more accurate and authoritative data support for the aluminum value chains in Vietnam and Southeast Asia. During the visit to Xingfa Aluminum, the two sides reached a number of agreements on aluminum price data collection, market promotion, and the organization of industry events. SMM stated that it would invite more international market participants—including representatives from the Middle East, Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as RUSAL and Australian primary aluminum smelters—to contribute to the development of Vietnam’s aluminum pricing system and promote greater regional market integration. The visit further strengthened the strategic cooperation between SMM and Xingfa Aluminum while injecting new momentum into the standardization and internationalization of Vietnam’s aluminum pricing system. Guangdong Xingfa Aluminum Co., Ltd. Founded in 1984, Guangdong Xingfa Aluminum Co., Ltd. (“Xingfa Aluminum”) is one of China’s leading large-scale manufacturers specializing in aluminum extrusion products. In 2011, Guangxin Holdings Group invested in Xingfa Aluminum, pioneering a mixed-ownership model combining state-owned and private capital in China’s aluminum extrusion industry. This marked the beginning of a new phase of sustainable expansion for the company. Xingfa Aluminum currently operates nine major production bases. Its seven modern manufacturing bases in China are located in Sanshui, Foshan; Nanhai, Foshan; Foshan Precision Manufacturing Base; Yichun, Jiangxi; Chengdu, Sichuan; Qinyang, Henan; and Huzhou, Zhejiang. The company also operates overseas production bases in Australia and Vietnam. With the initial formation of its global manufacturing network, Xingfa Aluminum continues to strengthen its advantages in production scale. The company has consistently focused on the research and development, manufacturing, and sale of aluminum extrusion products, covering two core segments: architectural aluminum profiles and industrial aluminum profiles. Architectural aluminum profiles remain one of Xingfa Aluminum’s traditional strengths, with its products widely used in high-end curtain walls, integrated door and window systems, and other building applications. While consolidating its core business, the company has accelerated its expansion into the industrial aluminum profile market. It has developed a range of high-performance products, including battery trays and crash beams for new energy vehicles, as well as aluminum body structures for buses. By strengthening its presence in key segments across the industrial value chain, Xingfa Aluminum’s products are now widely used in rail transit, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, electronics, and other industries. The company is also extending its advanced aluminum processing technologies into emerging fields such as energy storage and computing infrastructure. In recent years, Xingfa Aluminum has remained committed to strengthening its manufacturing capabilities. As a leading enterprise in Guangdong Province’s high-end aluminum extrusion industry chain, which has an output value of more than RMB 100 billion, the company has played an important role in driving industry development. Xingfa Aluminum continues to focus on breakthroughs in key core technologies and promotes the advancement of its industrial and value chains toward the medium- and high-end markets. The company has received numerous national honors, including National Manufacturing Single-Product Champion Enterprise, National Intellectual Property Demonstration Enterprise, National Technology Innovation Demonstration Enterprise, National Enterprise Technology Center, and National Green Factory. In 2025, Xingfa Aluminum ranked 475th among China’s Top 500 Manufacturing Enterprises, 147th among Guangdong’s Top 500 Enterprises, and 32nd among Guangdong’s Top 500 Manufacturing Enterprises. Join the Conversation at SMM AICE 2026 Connect with aluminum producers, processors, traders, manufacturers, certification organisations, industry associations and decision-makers from across Southeast Asia and the global market. Explore aluminum pricing, primary aluminum supply, processing technologies, low-carbon development, CBAM compliance and new opportunities for regional cooperation. Location: Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Date: November 19–20, 2026 Register now: bit.ly/AICE26 and secure your Super Early Bird Pass and save up to USD 200. Register before August 31, 2026.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] The Aluminium Extrusion Manufacturers Association of India (ALEMAI) has urged the government to introduce urgent policy reforms to strengthen the domestic aluminum extrusion industry amid rising import pressure and global tariff uncertainties. The association called for rationalizing tariffs on raw materials, reviewing FTA-driven duty-free imports of value-added aluminum products, lowering energy and financing costs, and increasing domestic aluminum billet availability to improve industry competitiveness. ALEMAI said India's aluminum extrusion industry has an installed capacity of around 3 million tonnes per year but is operating at only about 1.2 million tonnes, while imports exceed 1.5 million tonnes annually. The association expects demand to grow with infrastructure, automotive and renewable energy development, but warned that policy support is needed to improve capacity utilization and protect domestic manufacturers.

Canada's aluminum extrusion industry is urging the federal government to introduce trade protection measures, citing pressure from US tariffs and rising imports. The sector says about 500 jobs have been lost since March 2025, with another 800 at risk this year. Industry representatives also warned that aluminum extrusion imports from Vietnam, Thailand, Turkey and the UAE have surged, increasing competitive pressure on domestic manufacturers.

In H1 2026, China’s aluminum extrusion industry ran under three clear traits: feeble domestic demand recovery, overseas demand sliding first then bouncing back, and a sharp split between booming and sluggish product segments.

This week, the operating rate of leading aluminum downstream processors in China recorded 61.3%, down 0.6 percentage points WoW.

SMM, July 12: In the first half of 2026, China's aluminum extrusion industry presented an extreme pattern of structural divergence. Traditional construction extrusion demand remained persistently weak, dragging down the industry’s overall operating load, while industrial extrusion maintained high prosperity, underpinned by new energy, power, and heat dissipation sectors, serving as the core pillar of the industry. Meanwhile, linked volatility in aluminum prices intensified both in and outside China, with the price spread repeatedly narrowing. The export market experienced a "deep V-shaped recovery" trajectory, and the overall industry performance was characterized by "weak recovery in domestic demand, initial suppression followed by recovery in overseas demand, and a stark contrast between strong and weak structural segments." 1. Extrusion Operating Rates: Construction Extrusion Continued to Drag, Industrial Extrusion Resilience Supported the Industry After the 2026 Chinese New Year, the industry entered its traditional peak season for resuming work. In March, extrusion enterprises concentrated on production resumptions and downstream clients engaged in concentrated restocking, pushing the industry's composite operating rate to its H1 peak of 50.6%. Entering Q2, genuine downstream demand follow-through was insufficient, raw material prices fluctuated at high levels, and the industry was further impacted by the rainy season in south China and environmental protection inspections in some regions. As a result, the industry operating rate continued to pull back mildly, falling to 47.6% in June, with the overall operating level weaker than the average for the same period over the past three years. Construction extrusion was the core weak spot dragging down the industry’s overall operations. In H1, data on commercial housing transactions and new construction starts in China remained persistently weak; developers' financial positions showed no significant improvement, and payment returns from project sites were slow. Orders for housing construction-related doors, windows, and curtain wall extrusions continued to shrink. From January to May, domestic aluminum prices generally consolidated at highs, and downstream end-users exhibited strong resistance to high-priced raw materials. Traders and processing plants generally maintained low inventory levels, moving goods in and out quickly, with low willingness to initiate restocking. Although the industry actively expanded non-residential construction demand from industrial parks, standard factories, and government and enterprise public buildings, and home decoration for existing home renovations and home decoration retail recovered slightly, the incremental volume was limited, completely failing to offset the decline in bulk project orders. In H1, construction extrusion operations remained under pressure, making it the biggest drag on the industry. The structural prosperity of the industrial extrusion segment continued to rise, strongly underpinning the industry's operating rates. Demand for power transmission and transformation, energy storage structural components, industrial heat dissipation extrusions, and rail transit supporting profiles maintained steady growth. For PV extrusion, affected by the official cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for PV-related products on April 1, overseas clients concentrated on front-loading orders and enterprises rushed to meet production deadlines in Q1, driving the operating rates for PV frames and mounting extrusions to stage a temporary surge. After the policy took effect, the bonus from overseas rush orders faded, and PV extrusion production schedules returned to rationality, maintaining stable operation from April to June. NEV extrusions showed structural divergence: demand for lightweight extrusions for auto body and chassis remained robust, while demand for ordinary interior extrusions weakened. Overall, the resonance of prosperity across multiple industrial extrusion tracks effectively offset the weak demand for traditional construction materials, highlighting the structural resilience of the industry. 2. Aluminum Extrusion Exports: Deeply Under Pressure in Q1, Continuous Recovery in Q2, V-Shaped Reversal in H1 In H1 2026, China's aluminum extrusion exports followed a V-shaped trend overall, with a sharp decline in Q1 followed by consecutive recoveries in Q2. The driving logic shifted from price inversions and off-season effects overseas at the beginning of the year, towards the release of demand in emerging markets and the transfer of China's processing and manufacturing advantages. Q1: Domestic and Overseas Aluminum Price Inversions Combined with Overseas Off-Season Led to Sharply Weaker Exports Exports from January to February showed off-season resilience, mainly supported by deliveries for orders placed ahead of the Chinese New Year. In January, China exported 81,000 mt of aluminum extrusions, up slightly by 1.4% MoM but down slightly by 5.3% YoY. In February, disruptions from the Chinese New Year holiday saw exports fall to 64,000 mt, a 20.4% MoM decrease but a sharp 62% YoY increase, significantly outperforming the precipitous declines of past Chinese New Year periods. The core reason was that secondary aluminum extrusion enterprises in Guangdong and Fujian concentrated on delivering orders for Southeast Asia and the Middle East before the holiday, while some industrial extrusion enterprises adopted a model of "preliminary domestic processing and deep processing overseas" to speed up contract fulfillment, supporting export volumes at the start of the year. In March, industry exports hit their low point for the first half of the year, with monthly exports of only 48,000 mt, down 24.8% MoM and plunging 32.8% YoY. The core reason for this export slump was not a single geopolitical factor but the resonance of multiple negative factors: first, orders placed ahead of the Chinese New Year overdrew demand from February and March, after which overseas markets entered the traditional consumption off-season; second, LME aluminum saw wild swings in March, and domestic and overseas aluminum prices quickly inverted, compressing export profits for domestic extrusions and leading enterprises to proactively control volumes and take fewer orders; third, the European and US CBAM carbon tariff continued to suppress high-end extrusion exports, causing continuous market shrinkage there, coupled with a slowdown in logistics and customs clearance in some Middle Eastern regions. These multiple factors caused a substantial pullback in export volumes in March. Q2: Emerging Market Volume Surge, Exports See Double YoY and MoM Growth for Two Consecutive Months Starting in April, the price spread between China and overseas markets gradually recovered, the overseas off-season ended, and industry exports began a continuous recovery channel. Exports that month were 76,000 mt, surging 56.8% MoM and up 6.9% YoY, returning to the normal range for past years. Trade and logistics order in the Middle East recovered, stockpiling in Southeast Asia ahead of the rainy season began, and domestic enterprises accelerated their layout in emerging markets in Central Asia and Latin America. Leveraging overseas affiliated warehouses and cross-border stockpiling models to continuously take on rigid demand orders for overseas doors, windows, and curtain walls, export prosperity recovered rapidly. Exports in May continued their high-growth momentum, hitting the monthly peak for H1 at 87,000 mt, up 14.6% MoM and 20.1% YoY. The export structure continued to optimize; low-end construction extrusions saw steady incremental growth, while the export share of high-value-added industrial aluminum components, outdoor aluminum semis, and PV supporting extrusions continued to rise. Southeast Asia, Australia, South America, and Central Asia became the four core growth markets for domestic extrusion exports, effectively offsetting the shrinking demand in European and US markets. 3. H2 2026 Industry Outlook: Weakly Stable Domestic Demand, Marginal Export Weakness, Continued Structural Divergence Looking ahead to H2 2026, the structural divergence pattern in China's aluminum extrusion industry is expected to become further entrenched, with overall operations characterized by "consolidation on a subdued note, industrial support, and construction material drag." On the domestic demand side, the fundamentals of the real estate sector are hard-pressed to see a substantive repair in the short term. Commercial housing new starts and project payment returns are expected to remain weak, and construction extrusion demand will continue to operate in a low range without a trending recovery. Non-residential infrastructure and home decoration retail can only provide a slight offset, unable to reverse the overall weakness of construction extrusions. Industrial extrusion will remain the core pillar of the industry: in H2, steady climbing of domestic PV installations will drive the continued release of demand for PV frames and mounting extrusions; demand for new-type energy storage, data center heat dissipation, and power equipment extrusions will maintain steady incremental growth. NEV extrusions will show a divergence between strong and weak segments; demand for high-end lightweight structural components will be firm, but overall industry overcapacity and intensifying end-user competition will exert marginal contraction pressure on demand for ordinary automotive extrusions. Overall, industrial extrusion can defend the industry’s baseline but can hardly offset the downward pressure from construction extrusions. In H2, the industry's overall operating rate may be slightly lower than in H1. Pressure on the export front will gradually emerge, with the trend potentially turning from the high growth of Q2 to a mild slowdown. In H2, the bonus from overseas traditional peak seasons will gradually fade, while the domestic-overseas aluminum price spread narrows, export processing profits are compressed, and overseas local aluminum processing capacity continues to be released, alongside persistent trade barriers against Chinese aluminum semis in some countries. This will gradually weaken the price advantage of domestic extrusion exports. Although secondary aluminum extrusion exports may still hold cost advantages, homogenized competition in low-end products is fierce and profits remain compressed. The export growth rate for aluminum extrusions is expected to slow down gradually in H2, with overall volumes weaker than in Q2. In summary, throughout 2026, the aluminum extrusion industry is expected to continuously exhibit structural characteristics of weak construction, strong industrial, stable but weak domestic demand, and exports that are high in the first half and low in the second. Industry competition will further concentrate on high-end industrial extrusion, high-value-added deep processing, and overseas emerging markets, with low-end construction extrusion capacity continuously entering a phase of being cleared.

[SMM Analysis: Glimmer of Hope amid Weak Supply and Demand: Review of China's Aluminum Billets Market in H1 2026 and Outlook for H2] In H1 2026, China’s aluminum billets market, squeezed by wild swings in aluminum prices and a slow recovery in end-use demand, underwent a turbulent journey from deep pressure to staged repair...