SMM, March 20: Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 mt in January, down 0.1% MoM and up 17.1% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 202,000 mt, up 6.6% MoM and up 0.7% YoY. In January-February 2026, China’s cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled about 391,000 mt, up 8.0% YoY. Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 13,000 mt in January, down 64.6% MoM and up 56.6% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 10,000 mt, down 24.6% MoM and up 187.9% YoY. In January-February, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled about 23,000 mt, up about 94.8% YoY. Net imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 176,000 mt in January, up 15.9% MoM and up 14.9% YoY; in February, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 192,000 mt, up 9.0% MoM and down 2.6% YoY. In January-February, China’s cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 367,000 mt, up 5.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) Although China’s net primary aluminum imports maintained positive growth in January-February 2026, expectations of a sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China will challenge this situation. As of March 20, SMM’s Japan MJP spot premiums for aluminum ingot stood at $255/mt, up 45.7% from month-end February. Currently, some market participants were quoting Japan MJP CIF premiums for Q2 at around $350-353/mt, up about 80% from $195/mt in Q1; the US Midwest DDP aluminum premium stood at 105.25¢/lb, equivalent to $2,110/mt. As of March 13, Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid premiums stood at $470/mt, up about 27.0% from month-end February, while Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid premiums stood at $375/mt, up 27.2% from month-end February. The sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China is expected to divert some aluminum originally planned to flow into China, and China’s net aluminum imports are expected to decline YoY in 2026. The reason for this phenomenon lies in expectations of a contraction in aluminum supply outside China caused by reduced aluminum supply in the Middle East. As of March 20, Qatar Aluminum announced that it would maintain a 60% operating rate, involving 260,000 mt of shut capacity; Bahrain Aluminum announced the shutdown of Lines 1-3, involving about 310,000 mt of capacity. In total, 570,000 mt of aluminum capacity in the Middle East has been affected. Iran is at the center of the conflict, and the stability of its production faces severe challenges. In addition, some raw and auxiliary materials in the Middle East rely on imports, and the geopolitical conflict in the region has affected passage through the Strait of Hormuz, to some extent undermining raw material supply stability at certain aluminum plants. At present, aluminum plants in Saudi Arabia and Turkey have domestic upstream bauxite and alumina support and can achieve self-sufficiency, with room for exports; Bahrain Aluminum and Qatar Aluminum rely entirely on imported alumina, while the UAE has 2.5 million mt of alumina capacity, but its bauxite relies 100% on imports. Although Oman’s aluminum plants also depend on imported raw materials, their geographic location is outside the Strait of Hormuz, so the level of risk is relatively low. If transport routes remain closed and no new routes can be opened, aluminum production in the Middle East is expected to be significantly affected. However, according to the latest foreign media reports, Bahrain Aluminum is exporting 40-60% of its aluminum ingots through Saudi Arabia’s Port of Jeddah, with an overland transport distance of 1,400 kilometers, and UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium is attempting to import alumina raw materials through ports in Oman. If new transport routes are opened, the production reduction risk at aluminum plants in the Middle East is expected to decline markedly. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to production developments at aluminum plants in the Middle East, transport route conditions, and trends in LME aluminum inventory.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] The Aluminium Association of India (AAI), representing major domestic producers, has urged the government to exempt aluminum products from the recent 50% cut in RoDTEP (Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products) rates. Previously, aluminum exports qualified for ~3% RoDTEP benefits for Domestic Tariff Area (DTA) units and ~2.2% for SEZ units. AAI warned that the cut could strain exports amid rising global trade barriers (e.g., tariffs, CBAM), shrinking opportunities, and competition. It also called for 2026-27 RoDTEP rates to be set based on actual unrebated taxes borne by exporters, ensuring fair compensation for both DTA and SEZ units. This aims to maintain competitiveness for Indian aluminum in international markets.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Dak Nong Aluminum Company – TKV (DNA), based in Lam Dong province, exported its first alumina shipment of the Lunar New Year Binh Ngo 2026 (Year of the Horse) to Japan on February 23, 2026. The ~14,000-tonne cargo, packed in 1-ton flat-bottom bags, was loaded onto the MV HTK LUCKY at Go Dau port (loading started 2 pm on Feb 22) and delivered to customer Marubeni (Japan). To meet the schedule, DNA prepared early: 6,032 tons stored at Go Dau port and 26,100 tons packaged at the factory.

[Petroleum Coke Prices Rise Again] Due to an increase in aluminum exports in traditional industries, prices have risen, leading to a slight rise in petroleum coke prices. Daqing Petrochemical has announced that the price of Daqing Petrochemical's green coke will be increased by 50 yuan/mt to 3,600 yuan/mt in June, effective from 00:00 on the 13th. Fushun Petrochemical has announced that, effective from 00:00 on June 13th, the price will be adjusted to 3,750 yuan/mt, an increase of 50 yuan/mt.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis reached 547,000 mt in May 2025, up 5.60% MoM and down 3.19% YoY. From January to May, cumulative exports totaled 2.431 million mt, a decrease of 5.1% YoY.

US President Donald Trump stated in a new executive order on Tuesday that he would raise the tariff rates on steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50% to support the US steel industry. However, this policy, which is essentially arbitrary, has sparked significant discontent in both North America and Europe. According to data, most of the steel imported by the US comes from its two neighboring countries, Canada and Mexico, which are also the two countries that have been the most vocal in criticizing Trump's new policy. In a media statement, the office of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that the Trump administration's move to raise steel tariff rates is both illegal and unreasonable. The Canadian government is engaging in intensive negotiations with the US to eliminate the tariffs. Mexican Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard publicly criticized at an event that Trump's tariffs are unfair and unsustainable, and that Mexico imports more steel from the US. He is committed to seeking tariff exemptions for Mexico. Officials from the European Commission revealed that the Commission is in the final stages of consultations on expanding countermeasures. If no agreement can be reached with the US, existing and additional retaliatory measures by the EU will automatically take effect on July 14 or earlier. Huge Losses Data shows that over 90% of Canada's steel and aluminum exports go to the US. In a statement, the Canadian aluminum industry warned that the additional tariffs have made Canadian exports to the US economically unviable. The Canadian steel industry, on the other hand, stated that the country will face catastrophic unemployment, production slowdowns, and supply chain disruptions. The German Steel Producers' Association, WV Stahl, also warned that Trump's announcement of imposing tariffs on US steel imports marks an escalation of transatlantic trade conflicts to a new level. Kerstin-Maria Rippel, the director of the association, pointed out that the European Commission must find a balance between strict trade protection and reasonable negotiations. The European steel industry needs an effective trade protection tool in the near term; secondly, it is also crucial to continue negotiations with the US on a bilateral steel agreement. European Commission spokesperson Maroš Šefčovič told the media that the European Commission has consistently made it clear that it is willing to take action to defend the EU's interests. The EU's top priority is to create space for negotiations, with lowering tariffs as its long-term goal. Currently, the EU is facing 25% import tariffs on US steel and automobiles, as well as 20% reciprocal tariffs covering most EU goods, and a 10% across-the-board tariff. In response, the EU has imposed countermeasures on US goods worth 21 billion euros and is planning to impose additional tariffs on goods worth 95 billion euros.

Net Primary Aluminum Imports: In April 2025, domestic net primary aluminum imports were 236,800 mt, up 11.1% MoM and 14.8% YoY. From January to April, cumulative net primary aluminum imports totaled about 799,800 mt, down 13.6% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)

[SMM Analysis: Import Window Closed, Net Aluminum Imports Hit New High in April] In April 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports reached 236,800 mt, up 11.1% MoM and 14.8% YoY. From January to April, cumulative net primary aluminum imports in China amounted to approximately 799,800 mt, down 13.6% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on May 21 Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 3,130 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,130 yuan/mt, a low of 3,079 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,111 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt or 0.65%, with open interest at 351,000 lots. Alumina Spot: On Tuesday, inquiries revealed that 2,000 mt of alumina was traded in Guizhou at a transaction price of 3,150 yuan/mt, and 10,000 mt of alumina was traded in Shanxi at a transaction price of 3,200 yuan/mt. Ore: As of May 20, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $71.09/mt, up $0.36/mt from the previous trading day. This was mainly due to supply disruptions in Guinea's bauxite, leading to a significant increase in some market offers compared to the previous period, driving a rebound in the SMM imported bauxite index. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Industry Dynamics: Bauxite Imports: According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in April 2025, China imported 20.684 million mt of bauxite, up 25.62% MoM and 45.44% YoY. By country, imports from Guinea were 16.732 million mt, up 28.72% MoM and 59.62% YoY; imports from Australia were 2.68 million mt, up 5.7% MoM and down 14.41% YoY; and total imports of non-mainstream bauxite were 1.272 million mt. From January to April 2025, China imported a cumulative 67.77 million mt of bauxite, up 34.3% YoY. By country, cumulative imports from Guinea were 53.12 million mt, accounting for 78.38% of total imports, up 42.2% YoY; cumulative imports from Australia were 10.5 million mt, accounting for 15.49% of total imports, down 5.4% YoY; and cumulative imports of non-mainstream bauxite were 4.15 million mt, accounting for 6.12% of total imports, up 109% compared to the same period in 2024. Alumina Imports and Exports: According to Chinese customs data, in April 2025, China exported 262,900 mt of alumina, up 101.6% YoY; imported 10,700 mt of alumina, down 90.1% YoY; and had a net import of -252,200 mt of alumina in April. From January to April 2025, China imported a cumulative 99,500 mt of alumina, down 90.6% YoY; exported a cumulative 964,500 mt of alumina, up 74.7% YoY; and had a cumulative net import of -865,000 mt of alumina. Primary Aluminum Imports and Exports: According to customs data, in April 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were approximately 250,500 mt, up 12.8% MoM and 14.6% YoY. From January to April, the total cumulative imports of primary aluminum in China reached approximately 634,300 mt, down 11.2% YoY. In April 2025, China's primary aluminum exports amounted to around 13,700 mt, up 54.6% MoM and 643.0% YoY. From January to April, the total cumulative exports of primary aluminum were approximately 34,500 mt, showing a year-on-year increase of about 139.6%. In April 2025, China's net imports of primary aluminum were 236,800 mt, up 11.1% MoM and 14.8% YoY. From January to April, the cumulative net imports of primary aluminum in China were approximately 799,800 mt, down 13.6% YoY. Daily Basis Report: According to SMM data, on May 20, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 103.31 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m. Warrant Daily Report: On May 20, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 5,409 mt from the previous trading day to 190,300 mt. In Shandong, the total registered volume of alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 mt. In Henan, it also remained unchanged at 3,001 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 2,402 mt from the previous trading day to 10,200 mt. In Gansu, it remained unchanged at 6,306 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 3,007 mt from the previous trading day to 170,200 mt. Overseas Market: As of May 20, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.50/mt. The selling price of the USD/CNY exchange rate was around 7.24. This price translates to approximately 3,283 yuan/mt for the external selling price at major domestic ports, which is 248 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed. Summary: Last week, maintenance and production cuts were concentrated among alumina enterprises in south China, with operating capacity decreasing by 2.9 million mt/year on a MoM basis, further tightening spot cargo availability. Additionally, alumina enterprises have been facing continuous losses in recent months, with strong intentions to refuse to budge on prices. Coupled with maintenance and production cuts, the tightening of spot cargo availability led to a significant rebound in spot prices. Last Friday, due to the revocation of mining rights for some enterprises in Guinea, some currently operating enterprises received notices of production suspension. This week, some miners declared force majeure to shipping companies. The specific impact of this incident on Guinea's bauxite supply remains to be assessed. In the short term, it may provide sentiment-based support for bauxite prices, thereby offering cost support for alumina. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in the operating capacity of alumina refineries, as well as the shipment volume of Guinea's bauxite from the raw material side and the dynamics of related enterprises. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Policy Easing Signals Boost Market Confidence, US Dollar Weakens, Overnight Aluminum Futures Rise Slightly] Macro perspective, dragged down by the US Fed's cautious stance on the economy, the US dollar fell again on Tuesday; China released signals of monetary policy easing, improving market expectations and stimulating economic growth and investment and consumption demand. Fundamentals side, there were relatively small changes in the short-term supply side; cost side, the specific impact of the Guinea incident on local bauxite supply remains to be assessed, and in the short term, it may provide cost support for alumina on a sentiment basis. Demand side, it faces dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties, making significant growth difficult in the short term. Overall, positive macro factors and low inventory provide support for aluminum prices, but the off-season pressure on the demand side limits upside room. In the short term, attention should be paid to the performance of domestic and overseas demand, as well as the supply situation of bauxite.