SMM News, March 31 According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of domestic aluminum industry in March 2026 rose 0.5% MoM and fell 5.7% YoY, mainly due to a slight rebound in alumina raw material costs during the period. In March, Middle East production cuts pushed up aluminum prices in and outside China. The SMM A00 monthly average spot price (February 26-March 25) rose 2.9% MoM, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 8,316 yuan/mt. Based on monthly average price calculations, 100% of China’s operating aluminum capacity was profitable in March. From the cost breakdown side: Alumina raw materials : According to SMM data, the monthly average of the SMM alumina index in March was 2,685 yuan/mt (January 26-February 25), up 2.4% MoM. During the month, total operating alumina capacity was basically stable, but the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised ocean freight rates for alumina and bauxite, and domestic alumina costs are expected to move higher. Futures prices drove spot prices higher, lifting the monthly average alumina price. Entering April, the upward momentum in spot alumina prices at month-end March appeared slightly insufficient. Some new projects are expected to come online in April or ramp up operating capacity, but as the base price at the beginning of the month was already at a high level, alumina raw material costs in April are expected to post a slight increase. Auxiliary materials market : In March, both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back, lowering aluminum auxiliary material costs. Entering April, the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised international oil prices, and higher costs continued to push up petroleum coke prices, which in turn supported higher prebaked anode prices. The April prebaked anode tender price at a large aluminum plant in Shandong rose 300 yuan/mt MoM; for aluminum fluoride, prices are also expected to rise significantly in April due to higher raw material costs. Overall, auxiliary material costs are expected to increase significantly in April. Electricity prices : Electricity prices were generally stable in March. Entering April, power prices are expected to remain broadly stable, and aluminum power costs are expected to hold steady. Overall, in March 2026, SMM expected the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of dometstic aluminum industry to rise slightly; in April, it was expected to increase significantly MoM, with the average at around 16,150-16,550 yuan/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] ADC12 prices adjusted strongly today, with mainstream producers generally raising quotes by 300-400 yuan/mt, mainly driven by stronger primary aluminum prices and the rapid rise in aluminum scrap costs. Enterprises mostly followed the trend and increased their quotes, with cost support proving significant. However, demand remained relative

According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost for China's aluminum industry in November 2025 was 16,057 yuan/mt, up 1.1% MoM but down 21% YoY.

At the 2025 SMM (2nd) Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit - Main Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Allen Cui, Director of SMM Nonferrous Consulting, shared insights on the topic of "Prospects for the Development of the Global Secondary Metal Industry."

According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in May 2025 was 16,333 yuan/mt, down 0.3% MoM and 5.1% YoY.

Futures Market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,604.5/mt. After fluctuating considerably to reach an intraday low, it surged straight up to a high of $9,636.5/mt, then fluctuated downward. Near the close, it hit a low of $9,578/mt before finally closing at $9,615/mt, marking a 1.24% increase.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Escalating International Trade Frictions May Limit Domestic Price Declines Due to Resilient Consumption] Macro side, escalating China-US trade tensions and EU's concerns over US aluminum tariff hikes (to 50%) intensified market uncertainties. However, China's May manufacturing PMI rebound and improved export indicators provided demand support, with economic resilience potentially limiting declines. Aluminum prices faced short-term pressure, likely remaining in the doldrums. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum operating capacity remained stable. Notably, increased liquid aluminum alloying ratios at some north China smelters reduced ingot casting volumes, affecting arrivals at major consumption hubs. Cost side, aluminum production costs rose WoW, with the average immediate complete cost reaching approximately 17,200 yuan/mt as of last Thursday, up 258 yuan/mt WoW. This 1.5% WoW increase primarily stemmed from ore supply disruptions driving alumina prices higher, squeezing smelter margins. Demand side, seasonal weakness emerged in some downstream sectors, with PV-related aluminum demand declining and automotive material demand expected to soften mid-to-late June. Construction aluminum demand remained lackluster, though aluminum wire and cable operating rates stayed elevated thanks to State Grid orders. Overall, while domestic macro sentiment remained positive, overseas uncertainties persisted. Fundamentals-wise, faster-than-expected aluminum ingot inventory drawdowns supported prices and spot premiums. Though seasonal weakness appeared in certain industries, the overall demand decline proved milder than anticipated, maintaining resilience. Subsequent focus should center on inventory and demand dynamics, with domestic aluminum prices likely to fluctuate rangebound amid mixed factors.

[SMM Weekly Aluminum Price Review: Macro Sentiment Eases, Combined with Low Inventory Supporting Aluminum Prices, Upside Room Limited Under Off-Season Constraints]

[SMM Analysis: Alumina Prices Pull Back Significantly, with Aluminum Costs Down 3.7% MoM in April] SMM reported on May 6: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry was 16,386 yuan/mt in April 2025, down 3.7% MoM and 0.9% YoY. The main reason was the significant pullback in alumina prices during the period. SMM data showed that the monthly average SMM Alumina Index was 2,954.95 yuan/mt during the period (March 26-April 25), down 10.62% MoM. The average spot price of SMM A00 aluminum was approximately 20,074 yuan/mt in April 2025 (March 26-April 25), with the average profit of China's aluminum industry at around 3,688 yuan/mt.

View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis SMM, April 18: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract opened at 19,750 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,780 yuan/mt, a low of 19,655 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,695 yuan/mt, down 0.18%. The trading volume was 68,900 lots, and the open interest was 214,000 lots. SMM Comment: On the macro front, as the European Central Bank continued to cut interest rates, the US dollar index stabilized, finally reporting 99.44, up 0.18%. During the week, Trump announced "US tariffs on certain Chinese goods increased to 245%", and China stated that the US has weaponized tariffs to an irrational extent, and China will not respond. It is evident that US tariff uncertainties persist, global trade barriers are increasing, and this may have a negative impact on China's export business in the short term. The domestic macro favorable atmosphere remains unchanged, promoting the recovery of domestic demand. On the fundamental side, domestic aluminum operating capacity remained stable, and the resumed capacity in Sichuan and Chongqing has fully resumed and achieved output. The cost side of the aluminum industry rebounded slightly during the week. As of Thursday this week, the domestic aluminum immediate full average cost was around 16,552 yuan/mt, down 18 yuan/mt WoW, mainly due to the continuous decline in alumina prices, with aluminum costs slightly down by 0.1%. On the demand side, the destocking of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was significant, providing strong support for aluminum prices and spot premiums/discounts. According to SMM statistics, on April 18, the inventories in Guangdong, Wuxi, and Gongyi were 235,400 mt, 229,000 mt, and 91,000 mt, respectively, totaling 555,400 mt, down 10,400 mt from yesterday. The price drop stimulated downstream stocking sentiment. Entering mid-to-late April, the subsequent order volume in some aluminum processing sectors showed a downward trend compared to the previous peak season, mainly due to the end of the PV installation rush. Some companies reported that the operating rate may decline next week, coupled with the impact of overseas tariff uncertainties, some sectors saw a resurgence of overseas purchase wait-and-see sentiment, and subsequent export orders may be affected. Overall, on the macro side, the escalation of the tariff war has led to bearish sentiment. On the fundamental side, the destocking of domestic aluminum ingot inventory supports aluminum futures and spot premiums. In the short term, the operating rate of the aluminum processing sector in April remains high, but subsequent orders are expected to decline, and domestic aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,872 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,880 yuan/mt, a low of 2,808 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,818 yuan/mt, down 1.85%. The trading volume was 247,000 lots, and the open interest was 206,000 lots. SMM Comment: Due to the concentrated maintenance of alumina refineries in April, alumina operating capacity continued to decline. This week, alumina operating capacity fell to 82.88 million mt/year, and alumina supply tightened in the short term. This week, the decline in alumina prices slowed, and northern alumina prices rebounded slightly. However, as maintenance gradually ends and new capacities are put into operation, alumina operating capacity is expected to rebound, and the expectation of loose alumina supply remains. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a period of fluctuation and adjustment. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]