Supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions and shipping issues around the Strait of Hormuz have tightened aluminum can availability in India, causing Diet Coke shortages across several cities. As the product relied heavily on aluminum cans, delays in shipments and higher logistics and insurance costs increased packaging pressure. Industry estimates showed imported aluminum cans from the UAE, Sri Lanka and Southeast Asia rose by about 25% to 30%, while domestic can makers were already operating near full capacity. Diet Coke has gradually returned to stores in 200 ml glass bottles, with prices rising to nearly INR 100 compared with around INR 30 for the previous can format.

According to foreign media reports, Novelis has renewed its cooperation agreement with Infinitum, Norway's beverage container deposit refund system. This agreement aims to ensure that all aluminum beverage cans used in Norway are efficiently collected, recycled, and reintegrated into the production cycle. Through this cooperation, aluminum collected by Infinitum's recycling facilities in Norway is transported to Novelis' recycling plant in Latchford, UK, where it will be processed into new aluminum can sheets.

According to foreign media reports, Indian beer producers have warned that beer prices will rise and supplies will be disrupted due to natural gas shortages caused by the Iranian conflict, which has led to delays in aluminum imports needed for canned beer production. India is the world's fourth-largest natural gas importer, with approximately 40% of its demand coming from Qatar, making it highly vulnerable to fuel supply disruptions. The Iranian attacks have disrupted some of Qatar's export capacity, further exacerbating the natural gas supply shortage for Indian manufacturers. Aluminum can suppliers have also warned that aluminum can supplies may decrease before the peak summer beer sales season.

China Aluminum Cans released its 2025 annual report on March 16. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating revenue of HK$233 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.27%; net profit attributable to shareholders was HK$19.027 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.59%.

Cixi Yitai Packaging Co., Ltd. plans to establish a production line project with an annual output of 40 million aluminum cans. The project is currently in the stage of proposed approval announcement. The main construction content is the production line project with an annual output of 40 million aluminum cans. The main production equipment for this project includes 4 frying machines, 4 fully automatic aluminum can production lines (each line includes 1 trimming machine, 1 cleaning machine, 1 intermediate storage tank, 1 inner wall spraying machine, 1 outer wall roller coating machine, 1 eight-color printing machine, 1 varnishing machine, etc.).

In 2024, Japan's shipments of aluminum can stock reached 377,700 mt, a 0.7% decrease YoY, marking the fifth consecutive year below the 400,000 mt threshold. Specifically, shipments of can body stock amounted to 281,800 mt, down 0.8% YoY, while shipments of can ends and tabs stood at 95,900 mt, a 0.3% decrease YoY. Japan's production and shipments of aluminum beverage cans were 337,400 mt and 294,700 mt respectively, down 2.7% and 2.8% YoY. Among them, the production and shipments of can bodies were 263,200 mt and 233,700 mt respectively, decreasing by 1.1% and 1.8% YoY; the production and shipments of can ends were 74,100 mt and 61,000 mt respectively, down 7.9% and 6.7% YoY.

The Trump administration announced on Wednesday that it would impose a 25% tariff on all imported beer and include beer and empty aluminum cans in the list of derivative products subject to aluminum tariffs. According to information from the US Department of Commerce in a Federal Register notice, tariffs on beer and empty aluminum cans will take effect from April 4. Data from the US Census Bureau showed that the import value of beer in the US exceeded $7.5 billion in 2024. The primary source of imports was Mexico, with an import value of $6.3 billion last year, followed by the Netherlands, Ireland, and Canada. This move will deal a significant blow to beer imports.

Trump reiterated that the 25% tariff on foreign cars would take effect at midnight, and announced a 25% tariff on all imported beer, while adding beer and empty aluminum cans to the list of derivative products subject to aluminum tariffs. The US Department of Commerce stated that tariffs on beer and empty aluminum cans would be imposed starting April 4. Meanwhile, senior White House officials revealed that the base tariff rate (10%) would take effect in the early hours of April 5, and the reciprocal tariffs would take effect in the early hours of April 9.

PV aluminum extrusion: PV extrusion manufacturers benefited from active procurement demand from downstream component producers this week, with the industry's operating rate fluctuating at highs. The SMM survey found that top-tier enterprises' production lines were basically in full production, and the finished product turnover cycle significantly improved to a 7-10 working day range. It is noteworthy that, in anticipation of the upcoming "531" annual grid connection deadline, some top-tier enterprises have proactively adjusted their production strategies, conducting forward inventory preparation for mainstream model products to mitigate supply chain volatility risks.

SMM Analysis: Leading PV Frame Enterprises Near Full Capacity, Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate Upward Overall, despite the negative macro front in the first half of this week due to overseas trade protection and slowing growth, last night's US Fed March interest rate meeting announced no change in the benchmark rate, in line with market expectations, and signaled a dovish stance for an interest rate cut within the year, boosting market risk appetite and driving aluminum prices to rebound. The favourable macro front in China remains unchanged, with the country focusing on increasing policy efforts and stimulating positive interaction and synergy between market forces to maximize policy effects; three departments have used ultra-long special treasury bond funds to stimulate the renewal of new energy public transport vehicles. Fundamentals side, the aluminum industry chain is still mainly bullish, with the "Golden March, Silver April" seasonal destocking trend becoming more evident, and end-use consumption in NEVs and other sectors steadily growing. SMM believes that mid-week accelerated destocking and supportive policies will maintain short-term prices fluctuating upward. Close attention should be paid to changes in US tariff policies and the actual release of downstream demand. Whether SHFE aluminum can stabilize above 21,000 yuan/mt next week still requires further upward momentum. It is expected that the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2505 contract will trade at 20,600-21,400 yuan/mt, and LME aluminum is expected to trade at $2,640-2,760/mt.