[SMM Analysis: Glimmer of Hope amid Weak Supply and Demand: Review of China's Aluminum Billets Market in H1 2026 and Outlook for H2] In H1 2026, China’s aluminum billets market, squeezed by wild swings in aluminum prices and a slow recovery in end-use demand, underwent a turbulent journey from deep pressure to staged repair...

On June 26, the Corps Capital Investment Promotion and Trade Exchange Roadshow Matchmaking Session of the China-Eurasia Expo was held. A signing ceremony for key projects took place at the event, where Boda Equipment Chairman Zhou Shaowei formally signed a contract with the 13th Division of the Corps on behalf of the enterprise. The signed project will construct a specialized melting and casting production line and supporting facilities, with an annual output of 100,000 mt and an output value exceeding 2 billion yuan, focusing on the R&D and production of special-purpose aluminum billets for military and high-end equipment applications, as well as a series of national standard aluminum-based materials.

According to SMM statistics, on July 2, aluminum billet inventory in China's mainstream consumption areas dropped to 130,000 mt, down 4,000 mt from last Monday and 10,000 mt from last Thursday, with the destocking pace accelerating markedly. Compared with the same period, it was 23,500 mt lower than in 2025 and 9,700 mt lower than in 2024, pushing total inventory to the lowest level for the same period in the past three years. In terms of warehouse withdrawals,

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With the continued expansion of aluminum processing and downstream industries in Southeast Asia, regional aluminum billet production, consumption and trade markets have attracted growing attention. Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are not only important aluminum billet production and consumption hubs in Southeast Asia, but also play a key role in regional aluminum billet trade flows. Markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia, meanwhile, are still at a stage where local processing capacity development and demand for imported aluminum billet are growing simultaneously. Since March 2026, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has caused significant disruption to the global aluminum supply chain. On the one hand, uncertainty over the supply of primary aluminum and aluminum processed products from the Middle East has increased, pushing up procurement interest in primary aluminum, aluminum billet and secondary aluminum resources across Asian markets outside China. On the other hand, fluctuations in crude oil prices and ocean freight costs have further lifted regional aluminum processing and trading costs. Against this backdrop, LME aluminum prices, Asian regional premiums and Southeast Asian local aluminum billet processing fees have all fluctuated to varying degrees. At the same time, changes in the SHFE/LME price ratio have periodically affected the export arbitrage window for Chinese aluminum processed products. When overseas aluminum prices are stronger than domestic prices and export margins improve, Chinese aluminum processed products and some processing-trade resources show greater willingness to flow into the Southeast Asian market, creating certain disruptions to local billet supply-demand dynamics and quotations. When the price spread narrows, however, regional pricing returns to a framework driven jointly by local supply, imports from the Middle East and other overseas resources. Trade Flows From the perspective of export destinations, the flow of Southeast Asian products under HS760120 is relatively concentrated. In 2025, the top ten export destinations for Southeast Asian HS760120 products totaled around 1.2695 million mt, accounting for approximately 93.3% of total Southeast Asian exports. China was the largest destination, with full-year exports of around 602,100 mt, accounting for approximately 44.3%. Japan, Vietnam and India followed, with around 149,300 mt, 143,500 mt and 111,700 mt respectively, accounting for approximately 11.0%, 10.5% and 8.2%. It should be noted that HS760120 includes primary aluminum alloy ingots, secondary aluminum alloy ingots, other aluminum alloy billets and some cast aluminum alloy products. Therefore, this data mainly serves as a reference for observing trade flows of unwrought aluminum alloys and aluminum alloy billets in Southeast Asia, and cannot be directly equated with 6063 aluminum billet export volumes. Entering 2026, affected by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, uncertainty in the global supply chain for primary aluminum and aluminum processed products increased, and trade flows of aluminum raw materials and aluminum billets in Asia saw certain adjustments. Data shows that total Southeast Asian HS760120 exports fell to around 88,800 mt in February 2026, before rebounding to around 110,700 mt in March and further increasing to around 116,600 mt in April. From February to April, cumulative growth reached approximately 31.2%. In terms of destination changes, China remained the largest export destination, although exports to China declined in April compared with March. India, South Korea, Taiwan, China and Japan showed more obvious increases from March to April. Among them, exports to India rose from around 8,200 mt in February to around 15,700 mt in April; exports to South Korea increased from around 2,400 mt in February to around 10,000 mt in April; exports to Taiwan, China climbed from around 1,500 mt in February to around 4,100 mt in April; while exports to Japan recovered to around 13,700 mt in April. Overall, the rebound in Southeast Asian HS760120 exports from February to April 2026 reflected, on the one hand, the gradual recovery of regional trade after the Chinese New Year holiday. On the other hand, it may also have been related to Asian buyers increasing procurement of Southeast Asian regional resources and supplementing alternative supply sources after the Middle East conflict raised supply risks for overseas primary aluminum, aluminum billet and secondary aluminum. Considering that China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China are all important aluminum processing and consumption markets in Asia, the increase in Southeast Asian product flows to these markets indicates that regional unwrought aluminum alloys and aluminum alloy billets have played a certain supplementary and balancing role in trade during periods of supply chain disruption. For the 6063 aluminum billet market, this trend cannot be directly equated with changes in 6063 aluminum billet exports, but it can serve as an important reference for assessing the circulation activity of aluminum billets and aluminum alloy raw materials in Southeast Asia, regional substitution demand and fluctuations in processing fees. Market and Price Analysis With the continued expansion of aluminum processing and downstream enterprises in Southeast Asia, the situation of 6063 aluminum billet differs across countries due to variations in processing levels and downstream demand. Overall, Malaysia and Thailand are the main aluminum billet producing countries in the region and also have certain local consumption capacity. Vietnam’s aluminum processing capacity is growing rapidly, but some local quotations are still mainly for non-homogenized cast billets. Markets such as Cambodia and the Philippines remain at a stage where local processing capacity development coexists with demand for imported aluminum billet. In terms of homogenization status, mainstream 6063 aluminum billet quotations in Malaysia and Thailand usually already include homogenization treatment, and the relevant homogenization cost is mostly included in the aluminum billet processing fee quoted by producers. A small number of non-homogenized 6063 aluminum billet quotations also exist in the Thai market, which can be used to observe the basic processing cost of cast billets. The situation in Vietnam is different. As some enterprises mainly quote non-homogenized cast billets, the apparent processing fee for 6063 aluminum billet is usually around $50-100/mt lower than homogenized quotations in Malaysia and Thailand. Aluminum billet homogenization is an important heat-treatment process in the production of 6063 aluminum billet. It usually refers to placing cast aluminum billets into a homogenizing furnace for heating, holding and cooling treatment, so that the internal composition distribution of the billet becomes more uniform and microstructural segregation formed during casting is improved. For 6063 aluminum billet, homogenization helps improve stability in the subsequent extrusion process, reduce extrusion cracking, surface defects and performance fluctuations, and improve the surface quality and yield of extruded profiles. Therefore, in the aluminum extrusion value chain, homogenized aluminum billet generally has higher use value than non-homogenized cast billet. According to SMM market research, since March 2026, under the influence of factors such as the escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, tighter supply of overseas primary aluminum and aluminum billet resources, and fluctuations in energy and ocean freight costs, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in major Southeast Asian countries rose to varying degrees. Among them, processing fees for homogenized 6063 aluminum billet in Malaysia and Thailand once increased from the previous $200-250/mt to $250-300/mt, with some high-end quotations even exceeding $300/mt during the peak period. As the Middle East situation eased periodically in mid-June, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in Malaysia and Thailand declined. At present, mainstream 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in Malaysia have stabilized around $250/mt, and mainstream processing fees for homogenized aluminum billet in Thailand have also stabilized around $250/mt. However, due to differences in raw material structure, product status and quotation basis among enterprises, processing fees still show a wide range. In Thailand, some 6063 aluminum billet processing fees have fallen to as low as around $100-150/mt. In Vietnam, from March to June, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees rose from the previous $150-200/mt to $200-250/mt, before falling back to around $200/mt in mid-June. In addition, from the perspective of the imported aluminum billet arrival market, from May to June, SMM learned that CIF Thailand and Malaysia 6063 aluminum billet premiums/discounts were mostly around a premium of $100/mt, while some low-priced resources even fell to a discount of around $100/mt. These resources were mainly 6063 aluminum billets processed in China under processing trade and then re-exported to the Southeast Asian market. Amid cost advantages and an increase in cargo inflows at certain stages, these resources exerted some impact on the local aluminum billet market in Southeast Asia. From March to April, affected by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, uncertainty over some Middle Eastern aluminum supply increased. Asian buyers in India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China showed higher interest in Southeast Asian aluminum billets and related aluminum alloy resources, driving some Southeast Asian aluminum billet resources to flow out of the region and supporting stronger regional quotations. However, entering May and June, as Chinese aluminum billets flowed into markets such as Thailand and Malaysia through processing trade and re-export channels, competition pressure faced by local Southeast Asian aluminum billet plants increased. SMM research shows that sales pressure for some 6063 aluminum billet producers in Malaysia and Thailand has increased compared with earlier levels, and low-priced imported arrival resources have put certain downward pressure on local ex-works processing fees and the transaction price center. Outlook for Southeast Asian Aluminum Processing Looking ahead, the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market will continue to evolve around regional processing capacity expansion, import substitution, changes in raw material structure and overseas low-carbon requirements. In the short term, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam will remain the core markets for 6063 aluminum billet production and consumption in Southeast Asia. Malaysia and Thailand have relatively mature local billet casting and homogenization capacity, and their pricing systems are closer to a quotation logic based on “LME + regional premium + homogenized processing fee.” Vietnam, meanwhile, still has room for growth in aluminum billet demand as aluminum extrusion and downstream processing capacity improves, but the quotation basis for homogenized and non-homogenized products still needs to be further differentiated. Although local sample coverage in markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia remains limited at present, with the advancement of local aluminum processing projects, future demand for imported aluminum billet, secondary aluminum billet and intra-regional trade flows will remain worth monitoring. In the medium to long term, CBAM and overseas customers’ low-carbon procurement requirements may further drive segmentation in the price system of the Southeast Asian aluminum value chain. For the Southeast Asian aluminum billet market, the impact of CBAM may not necessarily be directly reflected through large-scale exports of aluminum billet itself to Europe, but may instead be transmitted through the export value chain of aluminum profiles, window and door profiles, industrial profiles and other deep-processed products. In the future, when European customers procure aluminum processed products from Southeast Asia, they may pay greater attention to raw material sources, the ratio of primary aluminum, in-house new scrap and aluminum scrap, carbon emission data during production, supply chain traceability and third-party verification capability. Against this backdrop, enterprises with stable homogenization capacity, clear raw material structures, the ability to provide emissions data and low-carbon material options may gain stronger advantages in securing export orders and price negotiations. From the perspective of the price system, CBAM may not immediately drive a one-sided increase in Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fees, but it will raise market requirements for differentiating “product status” and “raw material attributes.” In the future, price spreads between liquid aluminum direct-cast billets, remelted aluminum ingot billets and remelted aluminum scrap billets, price spreads between homogenized and non-homogenized aluminum billets, and differences between CIF imported aluminum billet premiums and local ex-works processing fees are all expected to become key areas of market attention. As the aluminum processing industry in Southeast Asia continues to expand, the 6063 aluminum billet market may gradually develop from relatively broad trade quotations in the past toward a more segmented price system differentiated by country, alloy grade, homogenization status, raw material attribute and trade term. SMM Price Points Against the backdrop of regional processing expansion and low-carbon trends, Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fees have gradually become one of the key price indicators followed by the market. To help enterprises better track price changes in the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market, SMM, after market research and improvement of its pricing methodology, will add a series of Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fee, calculated reference price and CIF premium/discount price points starting from 3rd July 2026 (Friday) onward for market reference. The Southeast Asian 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium price points will be updated on a weekly basis every Friday at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. Due to differences in settlement methods among enterprises, the full aluminum billet price may vary. For reference, it can be estimated using the following formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price + Quarterly MJP + 6063 Aluminum Billet Processing Fee】. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: Cambodia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Cambodia, USD/tonne Malaysia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Malaysia, USD/tonne Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium, ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne Vietnam 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium, ex-works Vietnam, USD/tonne The SMM Southeast Asian 6063 Aluminum Billet price points will be updated on a daily basis every working day at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. The SMM calculated reference price will be derived using the formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price (D-1) + Quarterly MJP + Latest 6063 Aluminum Billet Processing Fee】. Based on this, SMM will publish low-end, high-end and average calculated reference prices. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: SMM Cambodia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Cambodia, USD/tonne SMM Malaysia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Malaysia, USD/tonne SMM Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne SMM Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized), ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne SMM Vietnam 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized), ex-works Vietnam, USD/tonne At the same time, to provide a reference comparison for the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing and trading market, SMM will also launch CIF Southeast Asia 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium price points for market reference. The CIF Southeast Asia 6063 aluminum billet premium/discount price points will be updated on a weekly basis every Friday at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. Due to differences in settlement methods among enterprises, the full imported aluminum billet price may vary. For reference, it can be settled using the following formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price + Quarterly MJP + 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium/Discount】. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: CIF Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium Summary Overall, the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market is currently at a stage where regional processing capacity expansion, trade flow adjustments and price system segmentation are taking place simultaneously. In the short term, Middle East geopolitical conflicts, changes in overseas primary aluminum and aluminum billet supply, and fluctuations in energy and ocean freight costs will continue to affect Southeast Asian aluminum billet processing fees and import premiums/discounts. At the same time, changes in the SHFE/LME price ratio will also continue to periodically affect the willingness of Chinese aluminum processed products and related aluminum billet resources to flow into the Southeast Asian market. From the perspective of market structure, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam remain the core markets for 6063 aluminum billet production, consumption and trade circulation in Southeast Asia. Among them, Malaysia and Thailand have relatively mature pricing systems for homogenized aluminum billet, while Vietnam still requires separate differentiation in price basis due to the relatively high share of non-homogenized cast billet quotations. Going forward, as local processing capacity develops in markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia, changes in regional imported aluminum billet, secondary aluminum billet and local processing fees will also become areas worth continuous tracking. In the medium to long term, CBAM and overseas low-carbon procurement requirements will further increase the importance attached by the Southeast Asian aluminum processing value chain to raw material structure, homogenization capability, carbon emission data and supply chain traceability. Although CBAM may not necessarily drive an immediate one-sided increase in 6063 aluminum billet processing fees, it will prompt the market to more clearly distinguish between different product bases, including liquid aluminum direct-cast billets, remelted aluminum ingot billets, remelted aluminum scrap billets, as well as homogenized and non-homogenized products. Against this backdrop, the launch of SMM Southeast Asia 6063 aluminum billet processing fee, calculated reference price and CIF premium/discount price points will help the market more clearly track changes in regional aluminum billet costs, import substitution space, trade flow adjustments and price differentiation trends under the low-carbon transition.

According to SMM statistics, aluminum billet inventory in major domestic consumption areas fell to 140,000 mt on June 25, down 9,000 mt from last Monday and down 3,500 mt from last Thursday. In a year-on-year comparison, it was 2,500 mt lower than the same period in 2025 and 3,500 mt lower than in 2024, with total inventory already dropping to a relatively low level for this period over the past five years.

According to SMM statistics, warehouse withdrawals of aluminum billets in China totaled 38,800 mt during June 15-21, a decrease of 5,500 mt from the previous week.

China’s aluminum ingot inventory, after hitting a peak not seen in nearly three years in 2026, accelerated its pullback this week. According to SMM statistics, as of June 11, aluminum ingot inventory in major Chinese consumption areas was reported at 1.312 million mt, having cumulatively destocked by nearly 160,000 mt from the early-May high of around 1.47 million mt. The single-week decline this week reached 48,000 mt, clearly steepening the destocking slope...

According to SMM data, China's aluminum billet inventory in major consumption regions fell to 154,500 mt on June 11, down 8,000 mt from last Thursday and down 5,500 mt from Monday, with the destocking pace further slowing. From the perspective of warehouse withdrawals, aluminum billet withdrawals recorded 51,700 mt during June 1–8, down 4,100 mt WoW.

[U.S.-Iran Conflict Sees Dramatic Reversal, ECB Rate Hike Weighs on Metal Prices] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also create a bullish driver for aluminum prices; this Thursday, the destocking pace of China's aluminum ingot social inventory noticeably accelerated, effectively alleviating the previous high inventory pressure. However, China's high inventory pressure remains relatively pronounced and is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly undergo volatile adjustments.