[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Aluminum Futures Closed Lower, Spot Cargo Under Short-Term Pressure] On Wednesday, the ADC12 market generally showed a downward trend, with mainstream producers broadly lowering quotes by 100 yuan/mt. This price adjustment was mainly driven by the pullback in aluminum prices, which weakened cost support. Enterprises accordingly adjusted their quotes in line with market changes, but the overall magnitude of the adjustment remained relatively restrained, indicating a rather cautious market sentiment.

[SMM Flash News] SHFE data showed that as of March 18, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 51,428 mt, down 1,650 mt from the previous trading day. By region, the total registered volumes were Shanghai (4,266 mt, down 242 mt), Guangdong (18,431 mt, down 361 mt), Jiangsu (6,312 mt, down 506 mt), Zhejiang (16,889 mt, down 449 mt), Chongqing (4,053 mt, down 61 mt), and Sichuan (1,477 mt, down 31 mt).

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Flash News] Futures side, the most-traded aluminum alloy 2604 contract opened at 23,580 yuan/mt in early trading, briefly rose to 23,670 yuan/mt, and then, affected by long position reductions, fell in waves to a low of 23,380 yuan/mt. As of the midday close, the latest price stood at 23,425 yuan/mt, down 325 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's settlement price, a decline of 1.37%. Spot side, the ADC12 market generally trended downward today, with mainstream producers mostly lowering quotes by 100 yuan/mt. Affected by the pullback in aluminum prices, cost support weakened, and enterprises adjusted quotes accordingly, but the overall extent of adjustments remained relatively restrained, with market sentiment staying cautious.

[SMM Flash] Inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in China's major consumption hubs increased slightly by 40 mt from the previous day today.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Prices Retreated After a Rapid Rise, and Market Divergence Intensified at High Levels] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract opened higher and then fluctuated downward, opening at 23,770 yuan/mt, rising to 23,820 yuan/mt during the session, and then pulling back under pressure to a low of 23,525 yuan/mt before closing at 23,645 yuan/mt late in the session, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a decline of 0.34. Open interest edged up by 6 lots to 5,304 lots, with trading volume at 2,417 lots. Wait-and-see sentiment remained strong among market participants, and market divergence intensified at high levels.

[Macro Pressures Combined With High Inventory, SHFE Aluminum Remained Under Pressure at Elevated Levels in the Short Term] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum was insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. In China, social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had not ended. High inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighed on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and SHFE aluminum fell below the key threshold of 25,000 yuan/mt, remaining mainly under pressure at elevated levels in the short term.

[SMM Flash News] SHFE data showed that as of March 17, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 53,078 mt, a decrease of 362 mt from the previous trading day. By region, the total registered volumes were Shanghai (4,508 mt, down 92 mt), Guangdong (18,792 mt, down 300 mt), Jiangsu (6,818 mt, up 392 mt), Zhejiang (17,338 mt, down 332 mt), Chongqing (4,114 mt, unchanged), and Sichuan (1,508 mt, down 30 mt).

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Futures side, the most-traded aluminum alloy 2604 contract opened at 23,710 yuan/mt in the morning session and then quickly climbed, once touching an intraday high of 23,945 yuan/mt. Bulls then lost momentum, and prices pulled back step by step. In the afternoon, it fluctuated rangebound, and late in the session it fell further to an intraday low of 23,575 yuan/mt, finally closing at 23,725 yuan/mt, up slightly 0.17% from the previous trading day. Spot side, the ADC12 market was largely stable overall today, with a few enterprises raising quotes slightly. Supported by a modest strengthening in aluminum scrap prices, cost support for some enterprises improved somewhat, but due to limited fluctuations in aluminum prices and generally weak downstream demand,

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: V-Shaped Rebound in Futures, ADC12 to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Overnight, aluminum alloy 2604 in the night session bottomed out and showed a rangebound fluctuating trend: after the opening, it quickly fell to around 23,570 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, with a trading range of 23,570-23,715 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,710 yuan/mt at the end of the session, down 0.50% from the previous day's closing price. Intraday, it first fell sharply and then staged a V-shaped rebound, before entering sideways consolidation, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts remaining balanced. Trading volume shrank, open interest edged up slightly, and market sentiment remained cautious.

On March 16th, Dongxing Aluminum held a groundbreaking ceremony for the first phase of its high-end electrical round aluminum rod continuous casting and rolling project. The project has a planned total capacity of 200,000 tons per year and will be constructed in two phases. The first phase, with a capacity of 100,000 tons per year, is scheduled for completion by the end of December this year. Guided by the principles of "intelligentization, greening, and integration," the project leverages the company's existing high-quality electrolytic aluminum resources to produce L3 and above series of high-strength, high-conductivity aluminum alloy guide rods, with high-end products accounting for over 50%.