SMM June 27 news: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals almost all rose. SHFE zinc rose 2.16%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.81%, and SHFE tin rose 1.66%. SHFE nickel rose 0.36%. SHFE lead fell 0.37%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.64%, and the most-traded cast aluminum continuous contract rose 1.66%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel rose 0.48%, iron ore rose 0.54%, and rebar fell 0.1%. HRC was flat at 3,312 yuan/mt. Coking coal and coke side: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.13%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.21%. Overnight, in the overseas metal market, LME base metals generally rose. LME copper edged up. LME aluminum rose 0.39%, LME lead fell 0.58%. LME zinc rose 1.8%. LME tin rose 1.69%. LME nickel fell 0.36%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.37%, but posted a four-week losing streak on the weekly chart, down 3.37% for the week; COMEX silver rose 1.37%, but has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, down 10.79% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold continuous contract rose 1.34%, with SHFE gold posting a weekly decline, down 6.33% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver continuous contract rose 2.61%, with SHFE silver posting a weekly decline, down 15.23% for the week. Macquarie strategists noted that all eyes are currently on the path of inflation and whether central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, will tighten policies to control prices. The apparent end of the Middle East conflict, coupled with a more hawkish US Fed stance, led to a pullback in gold prices. The first meeting of new US Fed Chair Walsh had a 'hawkish' tone, and under his leadership, the central bank has the ability to 'drive or suppress' gold market prices. The shock from the Middle East situation is expected to drag on global growth in Q3, after which the eventual recovery in global growth and the start of a monetary easing cycle should drive gold prices lower, as more investor funds shift from precious metals to other assets. Investors have been taking profits and shifting to equities, creating space for them to re-enter the precious metals sector and drive a price rebound, though this may require a major macro event to reignite investor interest in gold. The forecast is for spot gold to average $4,641 in 2026, up 35% YoY, but to decline 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027, and then fall year by year through 2030. The bank lowered its year-end spot gold forecast from $4,400 to $4,300. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:46 on June 27, the closing prices for the overnight session: Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size grew 18.8% in January-May, with the electronics industry providing significant support] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in January-May, the total profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3,143.96 billion yuan, up 18.8% YoY. From January to May, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 1,048.66 billion yuan, up 19.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 2,434.81 billion yuan, up 24.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and those funded by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investors realized total profits of 695.72 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY; and private enterprises realized total profits of 772.65 billion yuan, up 10.7% YoY. Yu Weining, chief statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises for January–May 2026. Yu Weining noted that the electronics sector played a significant supporting role. From January to May, profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 14.1% YoY, boosting the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 5.2 percentage points. From an industry perspective, the global AI technology revolution has led to explosive demand for high-end computing power chips and memory chips, driving rapid profit growth in the electronics sector. From January to May, profits of the electronics industry surged 103.9% YoY, contributing 43.1% to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size, making it a crucial underpinning for the relatively rapid profit growth of these enterprises. [Series of 7 National Standards for "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" Released] At a press conference held by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), it was announced that the series of national standards "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" has been officially released. With the rapid iteration of technologies such as large models, artificial intelligence is accelerating from the stage of perception and understanding into a new phase of generative decision-making and autonomous execution. An agent, as an intelligent system with capabilities in autonomous perception, memory, decision-making, interaction, and execution, represents an important application form of next-generation AI. It is also a key vehicle for AI technology to empower diverse industries and underpin high-quality development of the intelligent economy. The seven national standards in the "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" series released this time comprehensively cover core aspects including overall architecture, identity codes, identity management, agent description, agent discovery, agent interaction, and agent tool invocation. They systematically establish a closed-loop standards framework encompassing "identity identification—capability description—supply-demand discovery—collaborative interaction—tool invocation," effectively filling the standard gap in this field. With unified architecture and interaction rules established through these standards, enterprises can reuse standardized components, reduce customized development, and shorten time-to-market. At the same time, they lay an institutional foundation for cross-domain trustworthiness and secure interaction by establishing unified identity authentication and full traceability mechanisms. (CCTV News) The People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs have issued a notice to solicit public opinions on the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products (Draft for Comments)." (From Wall Street News APP) [Three Departments: Further Improve the Collection of Mining Rights Transfer Proceeds] The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on further improving the collection of mining rights transfer proceeds, clarifying that effective August 1, 2026, late payment fees on mining rights transfer proceeds will no longer be collected. If a mining rights holder fails to pay mining rights transfer proceeds on time and in full, a penalty of 0.2% per day will be charged starting from the date of default, and the total penalty will not exceed the principal amount overdue. The penalty for mining rights transfer proceeds shall be paid into the mining rights transfer proceeds revenue category and shared uniformly according to the central-local sharing ratio for mining rights transfer proceeds. Late payment fees incurred before the implementation of this notice shall continue to be paid according to the original regulations, and no penalty shall be imposed. On the US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.1% overnight to 101.36. On a weekly basis, the index posted a second straight weekly gain, rising 0.6% for the week. As oil prices fell and the market reassessed US interest rate prospects, Treasury yields and the dollar moved lower. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of one rate hike this year remains high at 42%, while the probability of a second rate hike has fallen to 28% from 34% a week ago as inflation expectations have cooled. A Wall Street Journal survey indicates the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, to be released at 10 a.m. ET (10 p.m. Beijing time), is expected to rise to 49 from 44.8. (Jin10 Data APP) A Reuters poll showed that 78 of 102 economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in 2026, compared with 72 of 102 economists in early June. Artem Sakhbiev, FX strategist at BCA Research, said in a note that the dollar’s recent rebound appears overdone and lacks the support needed to break out of its trading range of the past year. The Fed revised up its rate forecasts at last week’s meeting and clearly focused on inflation. This pushed real yields sharply higher and eased concerns about political pressure for interest rate cuts, boosting the dollar. However, this move now looks largely exhausted. The Fed is likely to keep rates on hold, and the spread between short- and long-term yields could widen. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed mouthpiece,” sources say the search for a new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has stalled. The initial slate of candidates failed to produce a final choice, forcing the bank to relaunch a selection process that has already lasted seven months. On the surface, this was just a minor procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the independence of the US Fed is facing a severe test. Reserve Bank presidents are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid influence from Washington politics. (Jin10 Data App) Fed official Kashkari stated that signs of widespread inflation led him to expect one rate hike this year in the Fed economic forecasts released earlier this month. Rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2027. In a media interview on Friday, Kashkari said: "I am concerned about inflation, not just related to the Middle East situation, but signs of broader inflationary pressures in the economy." The Iran war pushed up oil prices, and prices rose across many categories. This has intensified concerns among some Fed officials that inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent, potentially requiring stronger action from the central bank. A report released earlier this week showed the May PCE annual rate came in at 4.1%, the largest increase since April 2023. Prices have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years. In the dot plot forecasts released by the Fed last week, half of the officials who submitted dot plot projections expected at least one rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data App) The US goods trade deficit widened to its highest level in over a year in May, as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the goods trade deficit expanded 27.4% from the previous month to $105.8 billion, compared to an expected deficit of $85 billion. US goods exports fell 5.4% in May, dragged down mainly by declines in multiple categories, including shipments of industrial supplies. This category covers crude oil and petroleum products. Over the same period, imports rose 3.6%. (From Wall Street CN APP) In other currency news: As London experiences record-breaking heat, Bank of England officials are starting to worry that weather could become the next shock driving up inflation, just as the previous supply shock is fading. Climate scientists increasingly expect a strong El Niño event to form later this year into 2027, disrupting global weather patterns. Now, economists are also concerned this could trigger a new round of supply shocks, push up food inflation, and once again frustrate global central banks' efforts to fight inflation. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, Eurozone June economic sentiment index, US June Dallas Fed business activity index, Japan May unemployment rate, China June official manufacturing PMI, UK Q1 GDP annual rate final, UK Q1 current account, France June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Switzerland June KOF economic leading indicator, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Canada April GDP monthly rate, US April FHFA house price index monthly rate, US April S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted house price index annual rate, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS job openings, US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, France June manufacturing PMI final, Germany June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI final, UK June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate preliminary, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending monthly rate, Switzerland June CPI monthly rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, US June average hourly earnings annual rate, US June average hourly earnings monthly rate, US May factory orders monthly rate, China June RatingDog services PMI, France May industrial output monthly rate, France June services PMI final, Germany June services PMI final, Eurozone June services PMI final, UK June services PMI final, and other data. Also worth watching this week: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra, running through July 1; The 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference takes place from June 29–30; ECB President Lagarde speaks in Sintra; The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its June monetary policy meeting minutes; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra; Technical talks between the US and Iran (pending); Fed Chairman Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speak at the ECB Forum; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra; ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy; And China will initiate a new round of adjustments to its refined oil product pricing window. Notably, on July 1, China-Hong Kong Stock Connect will be closed for the day in observance of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both Northbound and Southbound trading shut. On July 3, the US-New York Stock Exchange will close for the US Independence Day holiday; Trading in precious metals, energy, forex, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts on the US-Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end early on July 4 at 01:00 Beijing time due to the US Independence Day holiday; Trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on the US-Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end early on July 4 at 01:30 Beijing time for the same reason. In crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures declined, with WTI falling 2.34% and Brent falling 2.52%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures posted a third straight weekly decline, dropping 7.4% for the week; Brent futures also fell for a third straight week, losing 8.06%. Spot Brent crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-war levels, and the market for near-month contracts has been in contango—where near-term prices are lower than longer-term ones—for seven consecutive days, reflecting temporary oversupply. Tariq Zahir, a managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, noted that oil prices "fell too far, too fast," that the ceasefire remains fragile and uncertainty persists in the Strait of Hormuz, and that he expects volatility to continue. Rich Privorotsky, head of One-Delta at Goldman Sachs, pointed out that Iran has begun shows of force near the Strait of Hormuz, some vessels have altered their routes, and the inventory buildup in the Gulf is gradually flowing into the market. He believes that upside potential for oil prices is limited in the near term, but that the case for significantly further downside from current levels is equally weak. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US natural gas drilling rigs recorded their largest single-week increase in four years. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil drilling rigs operated by US energy enterprises reached 440 last week, marking a two-week consecutive increase, up from 433 the previous week. Active natural gas drilling rigs rose to 573, recording the largest gain since June 2022, compared with the prior figure of 563. (From Wall Street Cn APP) A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US refining capacity decreased by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decline of 1.43%. This was primarily driven by the planned conversion of a major refinery in Houston and the closure of a refinery in the Los Angeles area due to market dynamics, which is known for strict environmental regulations. Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, maintained its position as the largest US refiner with a total refining capacity of 2.986 million bpd, accounting for 16.4% of the nation’s total capacity. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Furthermore, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil stated that OPEC has begun to gradually restore Iraq’s pre-war production quota, a move which will strengthen Iraq’s output capabilities and support the recovery of the oil sector. A high-level consensus has been reached within OPEC, fully taking into account Iraq’s past special circumstances and current actual needs. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Barclays said it has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts, cutting the 2026 estimate from $100 per barrel to $96, and the 2027 estimate from $88 to $85, citing the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded substantially, reaching about 80% of pre-war levels. However, this normalization process remains incomplete. The bank noted that Iran’s assertion of control through fee impositions and coordination mechanisms has created frictions and may potentially delay a full recovery. A temporary deal reached last week aimed at ending the US-Israeli war against Iran has allowed traffic on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to resume. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Recommended Reading:

SMM, June 26: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market almost all fell. SHFE copper edged down, SHFE aluminum fell 0.38%, SHFE lead rose 0.15%, SHFE zinc fell 1%, SHFE tin dropped 1.7%, and SHFE nickel declined 1.81%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 1.41%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract tumbled 5.26%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 0.89%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 3.53%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore dropped 0.67%, rebar lost 0.64%, hot-rolled coil slipped 0.51%, and stainless steel dipped 0.21%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.92%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.21%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals all fell. LME copper dropped 1.55%, LME aluminum fell 0.97%, LME lead lost 0.39%, LME zinc declined 1.38%, LME tin tumbled 1.99%, and LME nickel fell 1.36%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.9% and COMEX silver plunged 3.4%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold edged down 0.11%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract extended losses from the previous five trading days, falling another 2.72%, and hit an intraday low of 13,513 yuan/kg, the weakest since December 2025. Additionally, as of the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.31%, while the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.85%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures added 0.7% to 3,686.5 points. Selected futures midday quotes as of 11:43, June 26: Spot and fundamentals Aluminum: The futures market stopped falling and edged up today. Spot aluminum in South China gradually weakened amid divergence. Low aluminum prices and strong destocking continued to support suppliers holding prices firm in selling... Macro front China: [National Energy Administration: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will continue to open up energy projects and issue investment guidelines for private enterprises to participate in large and medium-sized hydropower projects] Wan Jinsong, deputy director and spokesperson of the National Energy Administration, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the administration will persist in the approach of open construction and service-driven investment, increasing support for private enterprises to engage in building a new-type energy system. For major energy projects, it will expand the investment space for private enterprises. For major projects with certain returns, such as nuclear power, hydropower, and oil and gas storage and transportation facilities, the feasibility of private enterprise participation will be assessed on a case-by-case basis. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we will continue to open up energy projects, issue investment guidelines for private enterprises to participate in large and medium-sized hydropower projects and others, so that their investments have direction and returns are guaranteed. We will further improve the electricity market and pricing mechanism, and support private enterprises in investing in projects such as virtual power plants, charging facilities, and new-type energy storage. [Wang Hongzhi, Director of the National Energy Administration: China's installed power capacity is expected to reach 5.4 billion kW by 2030] Wang Hongzhi, member of the Party Leadership Group of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Director of the National Energy Administration, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that China's installed power capacity has now exceeded 4 billion kW and is expected to reach 5.4 billion kW by 2030. Among this, new energy will account for over 50% of installed capacity, becoming the mainstay of power capacity, while non-fossil fuel power generation will account for 50% of total electricity output, becoming the main source of electricity. Coal and oil consumption will have peaked. The PBOC conducted a 231.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous rate. No reverse repos matured today. The PBOC injected a net 329.7 billion yuan into the open market this week. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US dollar aspect: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 101.47. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 31%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.6%, cumulative 25-bp hike is 48.8%, and cumulative 50-bp hike is 14.6%. Fed Williams stated that the current monetary policy stance is well positioned to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target while acknowledging that risks to achieving its dual mandate remain. Williams said, "Given that inflation is elevated, we must bring it back sustainably to the 2% longer-run goal. The current stance of monetary policy is fully capable of achieving that." Williams noted that inflation is "clearly elevated" and well above the Committee's 2% objective. He expects inflation data to pull back slightly over the next few quarters, although significant risks remain. Fed Goolsbee said on Thursday that while the latest US inflation report showed a glimmer of hope for improvement in services inflation, underlying inflation pressures remain too high and concerning. In an interview with CNBC, Goolsbee declined to offer specific views on whether the Fed should raise rates or keep them unchanged. He said he agreed with Fed Chairman Warsh's view that fueling speculation about future interest rate paths should be avoided. (Jin10 Data APP) US data sent mixed signals while oil prices fell below pre-conflict levels. The May PCE inflation YoY matched average expectations, accelerating from 3.8% to 4.1%. Lower energy costs are expected to cool future inflation. May durable goods orders fell 4.5%, versus average expectations for a 4% decline. Meanwhile, Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was revised up from 1.6% to 2.1%, compared to expectations of 1.7%. Initial jobless claims for the week fell to 215,000, against average expectations of 223,000. (Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report said the US dollar index has strengthened rapidly in recent days, driving gold prices below the $4,000/oz mark. Fading inflation concerns did not push the dollar lower. We believe political “re-dollarization” may partly explain the dollar’s recent strength, but a more important driver likely comes from expectations of tightening dollar liquidity. We expect the dollar index to find support this year but struggle to sustain a strong rally, and the next US inflation data could be a catalyst for the market to adjust trading strategies. On the data front: The final US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and final June one-year inflation expectations will be released today. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks. On the crude oil front: As of 11:43, both crude benchmarks fell, with WTI down 1.67% and Brent down 1.54%. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, supply concerns eased somewhat. However, a cargo vessel was attacked near Oman on Thursday, and markets will closely monitor geopolitical developments. S&P Global Energy reported on the 25th that 78 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on the 24th, the highest single-day tally since the outbreak of the Iran war. The daily average number of vessels transiting the Strait this month has recovered to about 57% of pre-conflict levels. As of the 24th, a cumulative total of 551 vessels had transited the Strait this month, putting it on track to be the busiest month since the war began. The report noted that recent departures from the Strait included vessels that had been stranded for long periods due to the conflict as well as recent arrivals, signaling early signs of normalization in shipping activity. However, whether the rebound in transit volumes can be sustained remains to be seen, and related agreements still need further consolidation and implementation. ((Xinhua News Agency) US Secretary of Energy Wright expects Iran's daily crude oil exports to reach up to 2 million barrels. Additionally, market sources say that crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; in the past three days through Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude oil. (Jin10 Data App) An earlier Wallstreetcn article reported that the UAE formally withdrew from OPEC on May 1, and Iraq subsequently threatened to follow suit unless granted greater production freedom. Meanwhile, a series of geopolitical shocks—including the US takeover of Venezuelan oil assets and US-Israeli military actions against Iran—have significantly eroded OPEC's market control capability. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 26 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE tin rose 0.91%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.17%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc fell 0.12%, and SHFE aluminum fell 0.17%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.78%, and the most-traded cast aluminum continuous contract fell 0.44%. Overnight, most ferrous metals fell. Iron ore fell 1.08%, rebar fell 0.61%, HRC fell 0.48%, and stainless steel rose 1.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1%. Overnight LME base metals posted near across-the-board gains. LME copper rose 2.22%. LME aluminum rose 2.26%. LME lead edged lower. LME zinc rose 0.88%. LME tin rose 1.31%. LME nickel rose 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.82%, and COMEX silver fell 0.34%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose 1.17%, and SHFE silver rose 1.24%. As of 7:09 a.m. on June 26, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: [Two departments: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New-Type Energy System." The main objectives are: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030. Raise overall energy production capacity to 5.8 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent, comprehensively enhance the complementary and mutual support capabilities and security resilience of the power system, and achieve diversified and controllable energy imports; coal and oil consumption will peak, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%, wind and solar installed capacity will exceed 50%, becoming the mainstay of installed power capacity, and non-fossil energy power generation will account for 50% of the total, becoming the dominant source of electricity; accelerate building a resilient, green, low-carbon, integrated, smart and efficient new-type energy infrastructure system and initially complete a new-type power system; achieve overall independent controllability of key technological equipment across the energy industry chain, and rank among the world's leading countries in energy technology innovation; accelerate the improvement of market and pricing mechanisms suited to the new-type energy system, and basically establish a unified national electricity market system. US dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.11% to 101.46. As US data sent mixed signals and oil prices fell below pre-war levels, the decline in energy costs is expected to cool future inflation, and the dollar declined. (Jinshi Data APP) Driven by the Middle East conflict which pushed up energy prices, US inflation edged higher in May, with the annual PCE rate breaking above 4% for the first time in three years, potentially bringing the Fed closer to raising interest rates this year. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the US PCE price index rose 4.1% YoY in May, the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023. The US-led war against Iran pushed up oil prices, which in turn drove gasoline prices higher. Although crude oil and gasoline prices have pulled back in recent weeks after a fragile ceasefire was reached, economists expect inflation to remain elevated for some time. And even before the latest conflict, consumers were already grappling with higher prices triggered by Trump's sweeping import tariffs. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range last week, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers are expected to raise rates this year amid heightened inflation concerns. Financial markets are betting on a rate increase as early as September, potentially followed by another hike. According to CME's FedWatch tool: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 31%. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady by September is 36.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike 48.8%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 14.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the final estimate for Q1 GDP showed an annualized growth rate of 2.1%, revised up by 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate and far above economists' expectations. This final reading markedly outperformed the earlier second estimate of 1.6% and was also above the initial 2.0% pace published by the department. Markets had expected the final figure to be basically flat compared to the second estimate. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a sharp acceleration in business investment—likely fueled by an AI investment boom—was the key driver of the upward revision, with expanding exports and shrinking imports also providing a favorable backdrop. Yet the headline numbers also masked concerns over domestic demand. A key gauge of the economy's internal growth momentum—final sales to domestic private purchasers—was revised down by 0.7 percentage points from the second estimate to 1.7%; consumer spending also decelerated notably from Q4 2025 and from the previous estimate, underscoring pressure on household consumption. New York Fed President John Williams said the current monetary policy stance is effective in suppressing inflation, but numerous risks remain and rates are expected to stay unchanged in the near term. Williams said on Thursday that inflation is "undeniably high," and the current rate stance is "well positioned" to guide inflation back toward the 2% long-run target. He expects inflation to ease to 3.5% by the end of this year, then continue to decline along a "glide path" and reach the 2% target in 2028. (Wall Street CN) On the macro front: Today will see the release of the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June and the final one-year inflation expectations for June, among others. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers a speech; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari delivers a speech. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures gained, with WTI rising 1.61% and Brent rising 1.65%. Oil prices, which had rapidly pulled back following the Iran ceasefire, came under renewed pressure from fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz. As noted by Wall Street CN, reports said Iran proposed charging a transit fee for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and US Secretary of State Rubio promptly responded that such a move would "set an unacceptable precedent." Notably, inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, have fallen to about 19 million barrels, below the level considered the operational minimum. Nevertheless, prices remain far below pre-Iran-war levels, and near-dated futures contracts are still in bearish contango. (Wall Street CN) According to Xinhua News Agency, the United Nations maritime regulator, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), announced on Thursday that a ship was attacked in the Gulf of Oman the same day, and the organization decided to suspend evacuation operations for vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to further verify whether related security measures remain effective. Market sources said: crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; over the three days ending Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM, June 25: Metal markets: As of the noon close, base metals on the domestic market fell across the board, with SHFE copper down 1.82%, SHFE aluminum down 2.75%, SHFE lead down 0.7%, SHFE zinc down 1.64%, SHFE nickel down 0.92%, and SHFE tin down 1.76%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures fell 2.08%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.29%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.33%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with only stainless steel down 0.75%. Iron ore rose 0.2%, rebar rose 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. In the coking coal and coke segment: the most-traded coking coal contract inched up 0.08%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.28%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.82%, LME aluminum rose 0.24%, LME lead rose 0.6%, LME zinc rose 0.31%, LME tin rose 2.02%, and LME nickel rose 0.77%. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver fell 2.02%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold declined 2.81%, hitting an intraday low of 868.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 7.1%, with an intraday low of 13,560 yuan/kg. Additionally, as of the noon close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 4.39%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 3.54%. As of the noon close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe) futures fell 2.45% to 3,665.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 25, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, downstream consumption recovered somewhat after silver continued to decline. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly at TD parity to +20 yuan/kg... Macro front Domestic front: [China's power generation capacity exceeds 4 billion kW] On June 25, the National Energy Administration announced that as of the end of May 2026, China's power generation capacity reached 4.01 billion kW, ranking first globally. Non-fossil energy capacity became the absolute mainstay of capacity additions, and the energy mix continued to improve. The share of coal-fired power capacity fell from 61% in 2010 to 32% in May 2026; the share of non-fossil energy capacity rose from 25% in 2010 to 62% in May 2026; and the share of renewable energy capacity rose from 24% in 2010 to 61% in May 2026. (Xinhua) [PBOC reverse repo net injection of 322.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 370.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations today. With 300 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 322.5 billion yuan. ((Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 101.51. All large US banks passed the Fed's annual stress test, paving the way for banks to boost share buybacks and dividends by tens of billions of dollars. The stress test aims to assess how Wall Street lenders would fare under hypothetical financial system shocks. Unlike in previous years, the 2026 test results will not affect capital requirements, as the Fed is continuously revising the test to make it more friendly to banks. This year's test examined how 32 large lenders would withstand a severe global shock amid greater stress in commercial and residential real estate markets and corporate debt markets. The hypothetical scenario included a severe global recession, a 39% drop in commercial real estate prices, and a 30% decline in residential prices. The unemployment rate also surged to a peak of 10%, with a corresponding decline in economic output. The regulators said, "Despite absorbing over $708 billion in loan losses under this year's hypothetical scenario, total capital fell by just 1.6 percentage points, still above the minimum capital requirement." According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 65.8%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 34.2%. By September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 33.6%, of a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.7%, and of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.7%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Fed Chairman Warsh for eliminating forward guidance, and said no one should make dot plot forecasts. On the economy, he expects real wage growth to return to the pace seen before April and expects the economy to accelerate for the rest of the year without fueling inflation. He stressed that the dominance of the US dollar is crucial. He believes that once the situation in Ukraine is over, Russia will want to return to the dollar system, while a new Venezuela is returning to that system. During a period of rate cuts, the dollar can still remain strong, and the US is willing to take the right measures to keep the dollar strong. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK Consumer Confidence Index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index year-on-year, US May personal spending month-on-month, the final reading of US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter, US May core PCE price index month-on-month, US May durable goods orders month-on-month, and other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: Nvidia's annual shareholder meeting; the Bank of Canada's release of monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Federal Reserve's release of annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's attendance at a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Micron Technology's fiscal 2026 Q3 earnings call; and 300 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both exchanges continued to decline, extending losses from the previous three trading days, with WTI falling 1.69% and Brent falling 1.53%. Oil prices pulled back their wartime gains on Thursday as the market bet on improving global crude supply, with tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for months beginning to sail out of the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from maritime analytics firm Kpler, more than 20 tankers carrying approximately 35 million barrels of crude oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since a US-Iran agreement reopened this critical shipping lane. These non-Iranian tankers had been stuck in the Persian Gulf for over three months after Tehran effectively blockaded the waterway early in the conflict. Most of these tankers are expected to arrive at Asian destinations by early August. Citigroup stated that the worst may be over for commodity futures carry trade strategies, which suffered massive losses during the US-Iran war as short positions in near-month contracts were hit hard by soaring prices, while long positions in forward contracts were bought. Citi noted that the current base case is for significant de-escalation, and predicts that as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes, Brent crude prices will fall to $60-$65 per barrel over the next 6 to 12 months. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Woodside Energy has signed a gas sale and purchase agreement with Alcoa of Australia to supply 31.1 petajoules (PJ) of natural gas from 2027 to 2030. The gas will be delivered to Alcoa’s alumina refineries in Western Australia, helping secure energy supply for one of the region’s key industrial sectors. Alumina is the primary raw material used in aluminium production, making reliable energy supply critical to maintaining stable output. Woodside said the agreement strengthens its long-term partnership with Alcoa and supports energy security for Western Australian industry. In 2025, Woodside supplied approximately 90.3 PJ of domestic gas, accounting for around 21% of the state’s total gas supply. Market participants expect the deal to improve cost predictability, reduce the risk of production disruptions and support the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries, including the aluminium sector.

Fosbel has highlighted its Ceramic Welding technology as a solution for repairing refractory linings in aluminum furnaces without requiring shutdowns. The process uses an exothermic reaction to fuse new refractory material directly onto existing linings while furnaces remain in operation at temperatures above 1300°F. The technology is suitable for 60%, 70% and 80% alumina refractories commonly used in aluminum furnace applications and is designed to repair worn areas such as metal lines, roofs and sidewalls. Fosbel said the technology can be used for both maintenance and preventive repair programs to extend furnace campaign life and reduce downtime. The company has also introduced Nano-Tec™ ceramic welding powders, thermal cleaning systems and Supertorch equipment to improve repair efficiency, reduce material loss and lower maintenance costs. Hot-repair technologies are increasingly being adopted by aluminum producers seeking higher furnace reliability and operational efficiency.

SMM June 25: In the metals market: Base metals on the domestic market all fell overnight. SHFE tin dropped 2.64%, SHFE copper fell 2.3%, SHFE zinc lost 1.33%, SHFE aluminum declined 2.13%, and SHFE nickel slid 1.72%. SHFE lead edged down 0.95%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.84%, and the aluminum casting main contract lost 1.69%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance overnight. Iron ore rose 0.47%, rebar and HRC edged lower, and stainless steel fell 0.85%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract gained 0.4%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1%. On the overseas market, LME base metals all fell overnight. LME copper dropped 2.59%. LME aluminum tumbled 4.43%, hitting a more than three-month low of $3,110/mt during the session. LME lead fell 1.59%. LME zinc lost 2.67%. LME tin declined 3.05%. LME nickel dropped 2.52%. In precious metals overnight: COMEX gold fell 3.21%, touching a session low of $3,975.7/oz; COMEX silver plunged 7.39%, hitting a session low of $55.75/oz. SHFE gold lost 2.45%, and SHFE silver tumbled 6.31%. As of 7:12 on June 25, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Ministry of Commerce: Announcement on Further Improving the Handling of Reports Regarding Violations of Export Controls on Strategic Mineral Dual-Use Items] Announcement No. 26 of 2026 of the Ministry of Commerce. To fully leverage social oversight and combat violations of export controls on strategic mineral dual-use items, all organizations and individuals have the right to report suspected violations of relevant laws and regulations in exporting strategic mineral dual-use items, including: exporting strategic mineral dual-use items without authorization; exporting such items beyond the scope, conditions, or validity period specified in the export license; exporting prohibited strategic mineral dual-use items; circumventing licensing requirements by modifying or disassembling items into components or parts to export strategic mineral-related dual-use items; and evading export control regulations on strategic mineral dual-use items by routing through a third country (region), among others. [Ministry of Commerce Releases "Measures for the Security Investigation of Industry Chain and Supply Chain"] To implement the "Provisions of the State Council on the Security of Industry Chain and Supply Chain" (State Council Order No. 834), conduct security investigations on industry chain and supply chain effectively, and safeguard the security of China's industry chain and supply chain, the Ministry of Commerce formulated the "Measures for the Security Investigation of Industry Chain and Supply Chain," which is hereby released and takes effect from the date of publication. [Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments: Strictly crack down on illegal recycling and dismantling of end-of-life motor vehicles, and regulate the business practices of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling enterprises] The Ministry of Commerce, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Ministry of Transport, State Administration for Market Regulation, and other departments formulated the "Special Rectification Action Plan for Illegal Recycling and Dismantling of End-of-Life Motor Vehicles." It is hereby issued. This special rectification action focuses on addressing prominent issues in the end-of-life motor vehicle recycling industry. All regions and relevant departments should adhere to a problem-oriented approach, improve the coordinated supervision mechanism, strictly crack down on illegal recycling and dismantling of end-of-life motor vehicles, and regulate the business practices of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling enterprises. Through this special rectification action, the standardized operation level of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling enterprises will be continuously enhanced, the proportion of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling volume to vehicle deregistration volume will be steadily expanded, illegal recycling and dismantling of end-of-life motor vehicles will be effectively curbed, the level of parts recycling and reuse from end-of-life motor vehicles will be continuously improved, and the high-quality development of the end-of-life motor vehicle recycling and dismantling industry will be promoted. Additionally, local authorities are guided to concurrently address the recycling standards for PV modules and wind turbine blades. [Central Bank: To conduct 500 billion yuan MLF operation on June 25] According to the central bank, on June 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation through a fixed-quantity, rate-based tender, and multiple-price winning bids, with a term of one year. [CAICT: Domestic mobile phone shipments reached 27.639 million units in May; 5G phone shipments up 23.8% YoY] Data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) shows that in May 2026, domestic mobile phone shipments reached 27.639 million units, up 16.5% YoY. Among them, 5G phone shipments were 26.224 million units, up 23.8% YoY, accounting for 94.9% of total mobile phone shipments during the same period. As for the US dollar: The US dollar index extended gains from the previous two trading days, rising another 0.2% overnight to close at 101.57. The PCE price index release on Thursday will be the next key period. Forecasters anticipate that the May data will show acceleration on both MoM and YoY basis, providing new reference for the Fed’s policy direction. Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated that his baseline forecast remains no rate hike, citing that if a lasting peace is achieved in the Middle East, the inflation environment will be milder than the Fed currently expects. (Wall Street Journal) US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Fed Chairman Warsh for eliminating forward guidance, and he also believed that no one should make dot plot forecasts. On the economic front, he expected real wage growth to return to its pre-April pace, and he anticipated economic growth to accelerate through the remainder of the year without driving up inflation. He stressed that US dollar dominance was crucial. He believed that after the situation in Ukraine ended, Russia would want to return to the dollar system, and the new Venezuela was moving back into that system. During the period when interest rates were being lowered, the dollar could remain strong, and the US would be happy to take the right measures to keep the dollar strong. On the issue of Iran, Bessent stated that the US Treasury would oversee the distribution of funds to Iran, which would initially be disbursed through Qatar, and a significant portion of those funds would be used to purchase US food and medicine supervised by the Treasury, and any funds received by Iran should belong to Iranians. (Gold Ten Data) According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 65.8%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 34.2%. The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged through September was 33.6%, the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 49.7%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points was 16.7%. Macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK Consumer Confidence Index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index year-over-year, US May personal spending month-over-month, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter final, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-over-quarter final, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-over-quarter final, US May core PCE price index month-over-month, and US May durable goods orders month-over-month. Furthermore, attention should be paid to: Nvidia's annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada's release of monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed's release of annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's attendance at a central bank lecture event held by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Micron Technology's fiscal year 2026 Q3 earnings call; 300 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today. Crude oil side: Overnight, both oil futures dropped sharply, with WTI falling 4.56% to an intraday low of $69.93/bbl and Brent falling 4.45% to an intraday low of $73.32/bbl. Brent crude has largely erased all the geopolitical risk premium accumulated since the outbreak of the Iran war. News-wise, Trump stated in a social media post on the 24th that Iran had informed the US it would not impose any tolls, insurance premiums, or other charges on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but he also threatened that negotiations would immediately cease if this information proved false. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, the UAE's oil exports have recovered to nearly 85% of pre-war levels, reflecting a substantial increase in the volume of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. The UAE alone sold about 60 million barrels of crude oil from the Persian Gulf in recent weeks. Data shows that vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has hit a new high since the signing of the memorandum of understanding and continues to rise. (Wall Street See)

SMM June 24 – Metals market: As of the midday close, all domestic base metals fell, with SHFE copper down 0.95%, SHFE aluminum down 1.11%, SHFE lead down 0.12%, SHFE zinc down 1.7%, SHFE nickel down 1.94%, and SHFE tin down 4.64% to a session low of 388,220 yuan/mt. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum contract fell 1.01%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.52%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 1.67%, the most-traded silicon metal contract edged down, and the most-traded polysilicon contract rose 0.28%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.68%, rebar edging down, HRC edging up, and stainless steel down 1.27%. On the coking coal and coke front: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.64%, and the most-traded coke contract was at parity with 1,953.5 yuan/mt. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:38, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper rose 0.24%, LME aluminum fell 0.67%, LME lead fell 0.44%, LME zinc and LME tin fell within 0.5%, and LME nickel edged down. On the precious metals front, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 1.86% and COMEX silver fell 1.34%. On the domestic precious metals front: the most-traded SHFE gold contract extended its losing streak from the previous four trading days, falling another 2.37% to a session low of 886.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract extended its losing streak from the previous three trading days, falling another 5.08%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.6% and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.41%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 0.79% to 3,745 points. As of 11:38 on June 24, some futures midday market data: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,310 yuan/mt, down 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average SX-EW copper price was 103,200 yuan/mt, down 970 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, mainly due to increased arrivals... Macro Front Domestic Side: [Three Ministries Implement 2026 Insurance Compensation Policy for First (Set of) Major Technical Equipment] The MIIT General Office, the Ministry of Finance General Office, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration General Office issued a notice on implementing the 2026 insurance compensation policy for the first (set of) major technical equipment. The notice stated that complete equipment is generally supported based on the number of units (sets); core systems, key parts, key supporting components for major technical equipment, and basic components are generally supported based on the number of batches. For complete equipment such as high-end industrial machine tools, specialized electronic equipment, new-type agricultural machinery, and precision instruments and meters, which have relatively low per-unit value, support can be provided on a batch basis; for high-value core systems and key components like aircraft engines and marine engines, support can be provided on a per-unit basis. [Ultra-long special government bonds have helped upgrade over 360,000 elevators] On June 24, it was learned from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that since the state included the upgrading of old residential elevators into the scope of ultra-long special government bond funding support, various localities have actively relied on policy support to vigorously promote the upgrading of old residential elevators, facilitating residents' convenient travel. To date, a total of over 360,000 old residential elevators have been upgraded. (CCTV News) [PBOC reverse repo net injection of 242.2 billion yuan today] The PBOC today conducted 662.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous. Today, 420.3 billion yuan of reverse repo matures. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 101.47. On the data front: on June 24, S&P Global released data showing that the US June composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) flash reading rose to 52.2, higher than the previous 51.5 and market expectations of 52.1, hitting a five-month high and indicating continued expansion in US business activity. By sector, manufacturing stood out. New orders grew at the fastest pace in over four years, driving a marked pickup in factory production. The US June manufacturing PMI flash reading rose to 55.7, the highest since May 2022, exceeding the expected 54.6 and the prior 55.1. Meanwhile, the service sector also maintained expansion, with the June services PMI flash reading climbing to 51.3, a four-month high, above the expected 51.1 and the prior 50.7. At the same time, easing cost pressure expectations due to the de-escalation of Middle East tensions also boosted business confidence. However, the survey also showed that issues such as supply chain delays, rising raw material costs, and slowing employment persist, and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid. (From Wall Street Insight APP) According to CNBC, as the search for the next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta enters its seventh month, the hiring process is being closely watched. Observers hope to see how the new Fed chief Warsh will reshape the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for setting interest rate policy. As Warsh began to exert his personal influence within the Fed, the selection process shifted. During former Fed Chairman Powell’s tenure, the Fed had already been scouting candidates for the Atlanta Fed president job title, according to two people familiar with the hiring process. However, to allow Warsh to take the lead on the appointment, the selection process was temporarily suspended. Because the search is still ongoing, both sources requested anonymity. They noted that Michael Faulkender, who previously served as a senior Treasury official under President Trump, was subsequently added to the list of candidates for the Atlanta Fed presidency. It remains unclear whether Faulkender is still a candidate. (Jin10 Data App) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the Fed holds rates steady in July is 62.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bps hike is 37.4%. The probability that the Fed holds rates steady through September is 29.8%, with a 50.6% chance of a cumulative 25bps hike and a 19.6% chance of a cumulative 50bps hike. In other currencies: Data released on Wednesday showed that Australia’s CPI slowed in May, weighed down by lower fuel costs and reduced holiday travel demand. Still, core inflation came in above expectations, suggesting that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the CPI fell 0.7% MoM in May, while the YoY growth rate slowed to 4%, down from the previous reading of 4.2% and compared with market expectations of a 0.4% MoM decline and 4.3% YoY growth. However, core inflation, which strips out volatile items, rose 0.4% MoM in May—topping expectations of 0.3%—pushing the annual rate to 3.6%. The RBA has already hiked rates three times this year as it seeks to pull core inflation back into its 2%–3% target range. The Bank of Japan signaled in the minutes of last week’s board meeting that there is a need to further raise the benchmark interest rate. At that meeting, the BOJ lifted the policy rate to its highest level since 1995. According to the minutes released on Wednesday, one member stated: “Given that core CPI inflation is close to 2% and financial conditions remain accommodative, the Bank should continue raising the policy rate in response to the current economic, inflation and financial environment.” While the BOJ’s move last week marked its first rate hike since last December and signaled clearly that more increases are ahead, the minutes offered no explicit guidance on the timing of the next hike. Even so, they reinforced market expectations for another rate increase before the end of the year. The day after the meeting concluded, a survey of economists showed that about 90% of respondents expected another rate hike before December, with over one-third projecting October as the next adjustment window. Economists now expect the benchmark rate in this hiking cycle to reach 1.75%, up from the 1.5% forecast in the survey earlier this month. (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today will see the release of Australia's unadjusted May CPI y/y, Germany's June IFO business climate index, Switzerland's June ZEW investor sentiment index, the Q1 US current account, and US new home sales (annualized) for May, among other data. Also on watch: the Bank of Japan publishes a summary of opinions from the board members on the June monetary policy meeting; the 2026 Shanghai Mobile World Congress runs through June 26. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both exchanges fell, with WTI down 1.08% and Brent off 0.87%. Following a temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, keeping international crude prices under pressure. (Wall Street News) Iran's ambassador in Geneva stated that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial vessels, and a significant volume of oil has been transported through the waterway in recent days. (Jin10 Data App) On June 23 local time, US President Trump said the United States is "working toward a fair agreement with Iran" to end the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that 19 million barrels of oil were transported through the strait just the previous day (June 22). Trump reiterated that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and indicated that work on the matter is progressing well. (CCTV) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 24 News: On the metals market front: Overnight, domestic base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE tin dropped 4.59%, SHFE copper fell 1.13%, SHFE zinc declined 1.59%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.47%, and SHFE nickel slid 2.21%. SHFE lead edged up 0.06%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.17%, while the most-traded cast aluminum contract fell 1.07%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.68%, rebar edged up 0.19%, hot-rolled coil gained 0.18%, while stainless steel fell 1.41%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract declined 0.56%, and the most-traded coke contract dropped 0.38%. On the overseas metals market front, LME base metals fell across the board overnight. LME copper dropped 2.18%, LME aluminum fell 2.99%, LME lead declined 1.04%, LME zinc lost 2.79%, LME tin plunged 4.1%, and LME nickel slid 2.71%. Overnight in precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.75%, and COMEX silver dropped 6.03%. SHFE gold declined 0.82%, and SHFE silver lost 4.36%. As of 7:16 on June 24, overnight closing prices: Macro Front On the domestic front: [Notice from the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments on issuing measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket] The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket. The notice mentioned regulating and orderly developing car modification. Establish and improve car modification management systems. Formulate policy documents to promote the development of the car modification market, clarify the implementation of graded and classified management for car modification, define the list of car modification items, and improve management requirements such as vehicle inspection and registration changes. Improve the car modification standard system. Study the establishment of a national automotive standardization technical committee car modification sub-technical committee, sort out the list of standards to be developed and revised, accelerate the formulation of a batch of national standards, and research and develop car modification parts and technical specifications. The notice proposed supporting the development of the RV and camping industry. Improve the RV traffic and usage environment. Support local governments in optimizing RV on-road traffic management policies. Simplify the approval process for RV campsite land use. Enhance the level of supporting services at RV campsites. In combination with regional cultural and tourism resources, encourage the construction of a batch of high-standard, multi-functional RV campsites along scenic byways, suburban areas, and other regions, and improve supporting services such as maintenance and supply, hydropower support, medical rescue, and catering and accommodation. Optimize the setting of RV campsite signage and publish premium RV tour routes. When constructing or renovating public parking lots in cities, if conditions permit, dedicated parking spaces for self-propelled and towable RVs can be set up and managed better to meet RV parking needs. [Ministry of Commerce: As of June 22, the consumer trade-in program has cumulatively driven sales of related goods to 5 trillion yuan] Yang Mu, Director of the Department of Market Operation and Consumer Promotion at the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on June 23 that as of June 22 this year, the consumer trade-in program had cumulatively driven sales of related goods to 5 trillion yuan, benefiting 630 million person-times. Among them, car trade-in sales accounted for 63%, playing a positive role in benefiting people's livelihoods, expanding consumption, optimizing industries, and promoting circulation. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [Shenzhen: Emphasize systematic layout and flexible supply to build a good computing network, and strengthen computing capacity supply] On June 23, the Shenzhen Municipal Party Committee held a special meeting to deeply implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, carry out the work requirements of the provincial party committee and provincial government, seize opportunities, and promote the planning and construction of the city's "Six Networks" with high quality and efficiency. Jin Lei, Secretary of the Municipal Party Committee, presided over the meeting and delivered a speech. Qin Weizhong, Deputy Secretary of the Municipal Party Committee and Mayor, made work arrangements. Lin Jie, Chairperson of the Municipal Committee of the CPPCC, attended. The meeting emphasized focusing on key points and targeted efforts to improve the level and quality of the planning and construction of the "Six Networks". It highlighted the need for intensive, efficient, safe, and reliable construction of a modern water network, with a complete and systematic water resource allocation and supply guarantee network, a solid and resilient "flood-tide" risk protection network, and a happy and beautiful green ecological network. It stressed the need for expansion, quality improvement, intelligence, and flexibility in building a new-type power grid, continuously strengthening channel layout optimization, network construction, and digital and intelligent transformation of the power grid to create a stronger, greener, and more intelligent new-type power grid. It emphasized systematic layout and flexible supply to build a computing network, enhance computing capacity supply, deepen computing interconnectivity, and pay more attention to computing-power coordination. It highlighted high-speed, ubiquitous, integrated, and empowering construction of a new-generation communication network, accelerating the construction of national-level internet backbone direct connection points, 6G technology R&D and commercial deployment, "dual-gigabit" network popularization, and satellite network applications. It stressed collaborative linkage, safety, and resilience in building urban underground pipeline networks, adhering to the principles of being practical, pragmatic, and effective, strengthening planning coordination, accelerating old network renovation, enhancing digital empowerment, and constructing underground utility tunnels according to local conditions. It emphasized internal and external accessibility and efficient circulation to build a logistics network, targeting broader connectivity, stronger facilities, higher value, and newer scenarios to further optimize functional layout and coordinate the construction of a modern logistics network system. (Published by Shenzhen) On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.37% to 101.37. The greenback touched its highest level since last November on Tuesday, as traders cemented their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year. The Fed's policy outlook contrasts with other global central banks. Traders now anticipate nearly two 25-basis-point rate hikes by early 2027. Jordan Rochester, a strategist at Mizuho International, said: "The dollar has upside room, and it tends to strengthen before Fed rate hikes; the market is currently debating that the rate-hike cycle could start in September." (JINSHI Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 62.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 37.4%. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.8%, that of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 50.6%, and that of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 19.6%. On June 23, S&P Global released data showing that the US June flash composite PMI rose to 52.2, above the previous 51.5 and the market expectation of 52.1, hitting a five-month high , indicating that US business activity continued to expand. By sector, manufacturing stood out particularly. The growth rate of new orders hit the fastest pace in more than four years, driving a clear pickup in factory production activities. The US June flash manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7, the highest since May 2022, above the expected 54.6 and the prior 55.1 . Meanwhile, the service sector also maintained its expansion momentum, with the June flash services PMI rising to 51.3, a four-month high, above the forecast 51.1 and the previous 50.7 . At the same time, expectations of easing cost pressures due to the relaxation of Middle East tensions also boosted business confidence. However, the survey also indicated that problems such as supply chain delays, rising raw material costs, and slowing employment persist, suggesting that the economic recovery remains on shaky ground. (from Wallstreetcn APP) On other currencies: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem stated that the agreement between the US and Iran to end the conflict and allow crude oil to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz is a welcome development for the global economy. Macklem briefly mentioned this during a speech themed on global imbalances, saying, "Global energy prices have started to decline, though many issues remain to be resolved." Driven by rising gasoline prices, Canada's inflation rate accelerated to its highest level since 2023 in May. Economists believe that an immediate drop in energy prices should lead to softer headline inflation, which, given core CPI appears under control, will provide further reassurance for the Bank of Canada. (JINSHI Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany's June IFO Business Climate Index, Switzerland's June ZEW Investor Confidence Index, the US Q1 current account, and US May new home sales annualized. Additionally, attention should be paid to the release of the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's June monetary policy meeting, and the MWC Shanghai 2026 event running through June 26. On the crude oil front: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI dropping 1.1% and Brent declining 1.02%. The market is closely watching crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. On June 23 local time, US President Trump stated that the US is "committed to reaching a fair agreement with Iran" to end the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. He added that just the day before (June 22), 19 million barrels of oil had been transported through the strait. Trump reiterated that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and that current work is progressing smoothly. (CCTV) On the data front: For the week ending June 19, US API crude oil inventory fell by 765,000 barrels, compared with expectations for a decline of 4.995 million barrels and the prior week's drop of 8.33 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.238 million barrels, against expectations for a 350,000-barrel decline and the prior week's increase of 2.479 million barrels. (JINSHI Data APP) Furthermore, Russia's gasoline shortage is worsening after Ukraine's continued drone attacks on refineries, with at least two-thirds of the country's regions having implemented fuel rationing or experiencing supply disruptions. From areas bordering Ukraine to the Amur Oblast in the Far East, local governors are forced to restrict fuel sales at gas stations almost daily and attempt to curb panic buying. The extent of supply disruptions varies by region, but the situation is overall deteriorating, and could worsen if drone attacks increase further. (JINSHI Data APP)

The Irish High Court has overturned planning approval for Aughinish Alumina’s proposed expansion of its Bauxite Residue Disposal Area (BRDA), sending the project back to An Coimisiún Pleanála (ACP) for further review. The expansion would have increased red mud storage capacity by 8 million cubic metres, supporting refinery operations until 2039. The court ruled that additional assessment is required regarding flood risks and potential alkaline seepage, although it did not conclude that the project poses unacceptable environmental risks. Local farming groups also raised concerns about embankment stability, biodiversity and agricultural impacts. This marks the second time the project’s approval has been quashed, following the withdrawal of a previous 2024 decision linked to an AI-generated planning report. The ruling comes amid heightened scrutiny of Aughinish Alumina over its alumina exports to Russia and ongoing discussions around potential EU sanctions.