[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Middle East Geopolitical Tensions Remain Uncertain, Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term]

This week, the price spread between the TD price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the SHFE April contract did not narrow to within 50 yuan/kg, with the spot-futures price spread disappearing during some trading sessions. As the weekend approached, suppliers began lowering premiums and selling off spot cargo due to reasons such as capital recovery or concerns about further narrowing of the spot-futures price spread. Some branded silver ingot suppliers suspended quotations and showed strong delivery intentions. As of Thursday, the tradable premium of national-standard silver ingots over TD in the Shanghai market was lowered to 20-30 yuan/kg, with a few suppliers closing small volumes at parity with the April contract. The market trend of downstream just-in-time procurement significantly bargaining down premiums continued. Some suppliers noted that downstream indicative bids had fallen to near TD parity, but only a few suppliers were able to accept and close deals. Investment demand in the Shenzhen market remained sluggish, and spot market trading stayed sluggish. Inventory side, under pessimistic expectations for PV orders this week, spot market consumption remained subdued. As the April delivery approached, suppliers shipped to delivery warehouses and transferred inventory as scheduled, leading to a notable increase in social inventory of silver ingots in the Shanghai and Shenzhen regions.

[Price Review] Silver prices continued to weaken early this week amid the fermentation of Trump's speech from last week, but on Wednesday (April 8), supported by the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and a weaker US dollar, silver prices began to rebound, surging nearly 5% on April 8 alone. Short-term capital momentum, investment demand, and industrial demand had not recovered, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among market traders. Downstream transactions were still dominated by significantly reduced premium prices, and precious metal price gains remained relatively limited. Gold/silver ratio, as of April 8, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 62, maintaining a fluctuating trend in the short term. [Key Data] Bearish: US March seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls came in at 178,000, above expectations and the previous value US March unemployment rate was reported at 4.3%, below expectations and the previous value US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending April 3 was 308.1, above expectations and the previous value US API crude oil inventory for the week ending April 3 was above expectations and the previous value On April 7, the US and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, but Trump threatened that any country providing military weapons to Iran would be immediately subject to a 50% tariff. Data and macro news releases to watch next week include: On April 10 (Friday), the US is set to release March CPI data. Affected by energy price surges caused by the Iran war, the market widely expects inflation to rise significantly. Geopolitics, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf will lead an Iranian delegation to negotiate with the US in Islamabad, Pakistan, with the US side led by Vice President Vance. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz invited both the Iranian and US delegations to further negotiate in Islamabad on April 10 to reach a final agreement resolving all disputes. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz situation, cracks appeared in the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with Iran claiming three key provisions were violated, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again. [Price Forecast] In the short term, the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict remains the primary factor determining whether silver prices will sustain the rebound, with insufficient support from short-term industrial demand and investment demand. China fundamentals side, silver ingot spot cargo had shown a slight surplus and inventory buildup trend. Due to relatively pessimistic expectations for the PV industry in April, just-in-time procurement demand for silver nitrate, silver powder, and silver paste enterprises declined. As the SHFE April delivery approaches, suppliers showed a notably increased intention to deliver and liquidate, and the upward trend in silver ingot social inventory is likely to continue. Although silver prices next week may be boosted by the ceasefire and a weaker US dollar, the overall in the doldrums situation for precious metals has not been fully reversed. Spot transaction expectations remain at a slight premium or shifting to parity, and close attention should continue to be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts and their impact on market sentiment and capital flow adjustments.

SMM April 9 reported that this week, the total stainless steel inventory across the Wuxi and Foshan markets saw slight destocking, declining from 984,100 mt on April 2, 2026 to 978,700 mt on April 9, 2026, down 0.55% WoW. Stainless steel social inventory showed a slight destocking trend this week. The week entered April, coinciding with the Qingming Festival, but the holiday was relatively short, and the market did not see significant stockpiling demand. Downstream end-user procurement remained driven by rigid demand throughout, with no concentrated restocking wave forming. Futures side, the US-Iran conflict de-escalated during the week, with news of a two-week ceasefire between the two sides, easing market sentiment. Futures were lifted accordingly and probed higher, which in turn boosted spot market confidence. Spot inquiries and transactions recovered somewhat, directly driving a slight inventory reduction. However, it should be noted that geopolitical conflict risks had not been fully eliminated, short-term disruptions persisted, and the cautious sentiment among downstream end-users had not entirely dissipated, with a consistent lack of willingness to proactively stockpile. Supply side, steel mills concentrated their distribution to the market at the end of March, resulting in elevated arrivals in the earlier period, while this week's market arrivals decreased WoW, alleviating inventory accumulation pressure to some extent. However, stainless steel mill production schedules remained at high levels in April, and supply-side pressure continued to persist, posing significant challenges to further destocking. Coupled with the potential uncertainties of geopolitical conflicts at the macro perspective, the overall cautious atmosphere in the market had not fully faded, further constraining the pace of destocking. Overall, this week's slight destocking was primarily driven by the combined effects of the US-Iran ceasefire lifting futures, improved spot transactions, and reduced arrivals this week. Currently, steel mills' high production schedule pace had not changed significantly, and social inventory still faced considerable destocking pressure against the backdrop of high supply. Although spot transactions recovered somewhat, the cautious sentiment among downstream players was difficult to change, making significant destocking unlikely in the short term. Going forward, the trajectory of inventory will still hinge on the evolution of geopolitical conflicts, the direction of futures, and the intensity of actual downstream demand release.

Refined Cobalt: Spot prices of refined cobalt continued to fluctuate downward this week, dragged by capital flows and macro sentiment. Supply side, mainstream smelters maintained stable ex-factory quotes; after spot prices moved lower, traders showed stronger willingness to hold prices firm, and the spot-futures price spread rebounded to above parity. Demand side, the pullback in prices slightly stimulated downstream procurement demand, but end-users remained cautious due to fluctuations in associated metal prices. The DRC announced an extension of the Q4 2025 cobalt intermediate product export quota, and uncertainty over intermediate product exports persisted. The structural tightness in China's raw material supply continued, providing bottom support for cobalt prices. Cobalt Intermediate Products: Cobalt intermediate product prices continued to run steadily this week, with the market remaining in a "quoted but not traded" state. Supply side, apart from the domestic miner quotes from last week, other suppliers maintained a bullish stance and held off on quoting, with available supplies remaining tight. Demand side, most smelters adopted a cautious procurement stance due to insufficient rebound momentum in cobalt salt prices, and actual transactions were scarce. Based on current shipping progress, the concentrated arrival of cobalt intermediate products at ports may be delayed to June-July. Once downstream orders materialize and restocking demand kicks in, intermediate product prices still have room to move higher. Subsequent attention should be paid to the DRC's export approval progress and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: Spot prices of cobalt sulphate moved sideways this week. Supply side, the raw material shortage pattern continued, underpinning smelter quotes, with the mainstream price range maintained at 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt; some recycling enterprises and traders continued to offer concessions for shipments due to capital turnover pressure, with individual quotes dipping to 90,000-93,000 yuan/mt, but such supplies were limited in volume, not enough to shake the mainstream price center. Demand side, market sentiment remained subdued, with downstream enterprises holding conservative expectations for subsequent orders, and current raw material inventory still at safe levels, leading to weak restocking willingness, with only sporadic purchases of low-priced supplies and insufficient overall transaction activity. In the short term, the market remained in a destocking phase, with sellers and buyers in a stagnant tug-of-war, and prices lacked breakthrough momentum. From a medium and long-term perspective, the uncertainty of DRC raw material supply provides bottom support on the cost side; once downstream inventory is effectively depleted and procurement demand recovers, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to see a corrective rebound.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Silicone Full-Range Product Quotes Raised, New Order Transactions Mainly Rigid] This week, China's silicone DMC market traded in the range of 14,400-14,500 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt WoW. Regional quotes, monomer enterprises in Shandong quoted 14,400 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from early March. Mainstream monomer enterprises in other regions mostly quoted 14,500 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from early March, with the regional price spread narrowing. New order transactions were overall mediocre this week. Mid- and downstream enterprises were generally focused on consuming existing raw material inventory, with only small volumes purchased for rigid demand.

[Inventory Performance "Splits" in and outside China, SHFE Zinc Maintains Fluctuating Trend] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,720 yuan/mt. After the opening, bulls reduced open interest and SHFE zinc dipped to a low of 23,665 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased open interest and the SHFE zinc center rose to hover near the daily average line in a fluctuating pattern, touching a high of 23,835 yuan/mt during the session. Toward the end of the session, bulls reduced open interest and SHFE zinc fell back below the daily average line, ultimately closing up 25 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.11%. Trading volume increased to 36,226 lots, and open interest decreased by 215 lots to 77,368 lots.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] News: Individual coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia initiated a coke price increase of 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on April 13. In terms of supply, most coke enterprises currently had relatively small losses, with stable operating rates and good shipments, and in-plant coke inventory continued to decline. Demand side, steel mills maintained high and stable operating rates, hot metal production fluctuated at highs, daily coke consumption increased, and affected by maintenance on some railway sections, coke arrivals were disrupted, leading to a slight decline in coke inventory at some steel mills. In summary, some coke enterprises still held bullish expectations for the market outlook, and the coke market is expected to be generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Moved Sideways, Stainless Steel Spot Trading Was Mediocre and Struggled to Rise On April 9, SMM reported that SS futures continued to move sideways. The US and Iran temporarily ceased fire, but geopolitical conflicts had not truly subsided, and uncertainty at the macro perspective remained elevated. SS futures failed to extend the previous rally and mainly moved sideways, closing at 14,320 yuan/mt as of the midday session. In the spot market, affected by the pause in the futures rally, the stainless steel spot market still saw some inquiry activity, but actual transactions were still dominated by low-priced sources; traders attempted to slightly raise their quotes, but actual transaction gains were limited. The most-traded SS futures contract moved sideways. At 10:15 AM, the most-traded SS2605 futures contract was quoted at 14,290 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 180-380 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi fell by 100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan remained stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area fell by 200 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted flat in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April." Downstream demand fundamentals have recovered compared to the earlier period, with end-user procurement continuing at a just-needed pace, and the overall trading volume was sufficient to hold quotes firm for basic market vitality. However, affected by macro news disturbances and futures fluctuations, downstream end-user clients still...

Social inventory of HRC was 3.4389 million mt this week, down 41,400 mt from the previous week, -1.19% WoW, +34.23% YoY, and +21.54% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. Mill inventory of HRC was 1.1205 million mt this week, down 41,800 mt from the previous week, -3.60% WoW, +0.83% YoY, and -0.71% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. Total HRC inventory was 4.5594 million mt this week, down 83,300 mt from the previous week, -1.79% WoW, +24.12% YoY, and +15.20% YoY on a lunar calendar basis.