Air Conditioners in Southeast Asia: Market demand is steadily recovering. Affected by the El Niño climate, extreme high temperatures frequently hit Southeast Asia, continuously activating residents' rigid cooling demand. Combined with accelerating urbanization, expanding commercial and industrial supporting facilities, sufficient destocking of end-user inventories, a recovery in dealers' willingness to restock, and ample room for penetration rate growth, this supports the steady rise of regional demand.

Semi-Annual Review and Outlook: Capacity Expansion Continues to Suppress Prices, Non-oriented Struggles to Shake Off Downturn Shadow

According to the latest production schedule report on three major white goods released by ChinaIOL, the combined production schedule for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in June 2026 totaled 30.04 million units, down 11.8% compared to the same period last year.

According to the latest data from industry sources, Household air conditioners: In April 2026, household air conditioner production and sales declined YoY, with the industry overall trending weak and both domestic sales and exports falling. In the Chinese market, four key factors constrained performance: a high base effect compounded by reduced subsidy intensity for trade-in programs diminishing policy benefits; a sluggish property market with insufficient new supporting demand; unfavorable weather delaying the peak sales season; and high costs coupled with high inventory levels further suppressing domestic sales performance.

In April, China's air conditioner production was 28.191 million units, down 4.7% YoY; cumulative production from January to April was 102.783 million units, up 1.4% YoY. In April, national refrigerator production was 10.105 million units, up 19.3% YoY; cumulative production from January to April was 37.329 million units, up 12.2% YoY. In April, national washing machine production was 10.210 million units, up 5.3% YoY; cumulative production from January to April was 40.700 million units, up 3.1% YoY. In April, national color TV production was 14.365 million units, down 7.8% YoY; cumulative production from January to April was 54.861 million units, down 3.6% YoY. In April, China exported 7.48 million air conditioners, down 0.3% YoY; cumulative exports from January to April were 28 million units, down 5.7% YoY. In April, refrigerator exports were 7.94 million units, up 14.6% YoY; cumulative exports from January to April were 29.8 million units, up 11.2% YoY. In April, washing machine exports were 3.29 million units, up 12.4% YoY; cumulative exports from January to April were 12.26 million units, up 9.4% YoY. In April, LCD TV exports were 8.8 million units, up 2.4% YoY; cumulative exports from January to April were 34.41 million units, up 7.2% YoY. ​

In Q1 2026, the AC motor industry for air conditioners was generally weak, with production and sales pulling back significantly YoY. The market exhibited a pattern of sharply weakening exports and simultaneously pressured domestic sales.

According to new retail market monitoring data from AVC (All View Cloud), in April 2026, the total monitored retail volume of major home appliance categories reached 597,000 units, up 5.5% YoY, with total retail revenue of 1.62 billion yuan, up 8.4% YoY. Among the major categories in April, those with YoY increases in sales revenue included kitchen appliance packages (72.2%), color TVs (31.5%), electric storage water heaters (26.3%), refrigerators (24.4%), washing machines (17.9%), freezers (7.2%), rice cookers (6.3%), and gas water heaters (2.8%). Categories with YoY declines included induction cookers (6.4%), range hoods (9.9%), air conditioners (11.1%), electric fans (17.9%), gas stoves (32.7%), and electric pressure cookers (63.2%).

According to the latest report, the total production schedule for China's household air conditioners in May 2026 was 21.977 million units, down 11.7% YoY; of which household air conditioners had a production schedule of 20.355 million units, down 11.9% YoY; dehumidifiers had a production schedule of 745,000 units, down 12.9% YoY; and household central air conditioners had a production schedule of 877,000 units, down 6.0% YoY.

In April 2026, the output of NdFeB blanks reached 32,603 metric tons, representing a significant month-on-month increase of 8.73% and a year-on-year rise of 9%. The industry-wide average operating rate climbed to 76.37%, indicating an accelerated expansion. According to SMM's frontline research, production is expected to further increase to 34,097 tons in May, a month-on-month growth of approximately 5%. If this forecast materializes, it will mark the highest production level since January 2025.

In March 2026, China's cumulative household air conditioner production reached 24.034 million units, down 3.3% YoY; sales totaled 23.934 million units, down 1.7% YoY; exports were 10.436 million units, down 9.8% YoY; and domestic sales were 13.498 million units, up 5.6% YoY. As the key closing period of Q1, March saw sluggish end-use market demand drag down production performance. However, the resilience of domestic sales effectively offset the pressure from declining exports, serving as a pillar supporting the industry's stable operation.