Africa’s PGM industry remains highly concentrated in South Africa and Zimbabwe, which account for all 51 identified mining assets. South Africa dominates both active operations and the development pipeline, while Zimbabwe provides a smaller but strategically important second centre. Future supply growth is likely to be gradual and driven by a limited group of expansions and new mines.

Zimbabwe's sole operating lithium sulphate plant, run by a Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt subsidiary, has no capacity to process third-party concentrate just months before the country's export ban takes effect, according to comments from plant officials during a government site visit. No room for outside supply. The government's January 2027 ban on lithium concentrate exports aims to push miners toward domestic refining, lifting export revenue and local employment. Producers have requested more time to build their own processing plants, but authorities have instead directed them to use existing local facilities of which only the Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe Huayou plant is currently operational, and it cannot absorb outside material. Mine manager comment. "We don't have the capacity to process other minerals from outside. Our concentrator plant produces around 400,000 tons a year, so there's no room for other players," said mine manager Mthokozisi Goliath, noting the sulphate plant can only process what its own concentrator supplies. No delay to deadline. Mines minister Polite Kambamura ruled out pushing back the ban: "The January 2027 deadline is still on... We would like to urge all producers to stick to that deadline." Other plants not ready in time. Processing facilities under construction at other Zimbabwean lithium assets are unlikely to be completed before the deadline. Chinese firms have invested roughly $2 billion into Zimbabwe's lithium sector since 2021. SMM View: This tightens the bottleneck facing Zimbabwe's non-Huayou producers heading into January 2027 with Goromonzi at full capacity and rival plants unfinished, miners without their own processing routes face a stark choice between stockpiling concentrate, absorbing steep discounts on any domestic sale, or halting output altogether. This reinforces the case for closely tracking commissioning timelines at competing plants, as delays there directly translate into constrained sulphate supply and potential price support for processed material once the ban takes hold.

Sinomine Resource Group has agreed to acquire Tyranna Resources' 90% interest in the Namibe lithium project in southern Angola for $1.44 million, adding another West African lithium ore asset to its African portfolio as it deepens exposure to the region's spodumene supply chain. Deal Structure: The transaction covers Tyranna subsidiary Angolan Minerals' stake in AM Mauritius, holding company for Namibe, to be sold to Sinomine Resource (Guangdong Hengqin) Supply Chain Co, a Sinomine subsidiary. The deal requires shareholder approval, with Tyranna's general meeting on the matter scheduled for August 7. Project Background: Namibe has been under exploration for four years, with drilling confirming spodumene and pollucite mineralisation. Sinomine, already a funding partner in the project, was named the natural buyer given its established African mining and lithium ore processing footprint across Namibia, Zimbabwe and the DRC. Capital Redirected to Gold: Tyranna said proceeds will fund its newly acquired Chinguar gold project in Angola, with the exploration team preparing stream sediment sampling, soil surveys and lateritic gold target assessment across the concession. Managing Director David Crook framed the divestment as a strategic pivot to prioritise assets with the strongest exploration upside while retaining an Angolan mineral sector presence. SMM View: The deal underscores Sinomine's continued consolidation of early-to-mid-stage African lithium ore assets at low entry cost, extending its regional footprint beyond existing Zimbabwe and DRC operations into Angola's nascent spodumene sector. For juniors like Tyranna, divesting pre-development lithium assets to fund gold exploration reflects a broader trend of smaller Angola-focused explorers rotating capital away from lithium amid subdued pricing, toward commodities offering faster near-term returns.

[SMM Express] Zimplats shares have come under pressure as weakness in the platinum market weighs on investor sentiment towards the Zimbabwe-focused PGM producer. The decline reflects broader concerns over the impact of platinum-price movements on mining revenues and profitability. The pressure comes despite Zimplats continuing to advance its long-term investment programme in Zimbabwe, including mine development and processing capacity. The company’s latest disclosures show continued progress on expansion and local processing projects, highlighting its longer-term commitment to Zimbabwe’s PGM industry. For the broader PGM market, the development illustrates the sensitivity of producers to commodity-price volatility, with weaker prices potentially affecting cash flows, investment decisions and shareholder returns. At the same time, sustained investment in production and processing capacity could provide longer-term support if platinum-market conditions improve.

Zimbabwe's first lithium sulfate plant, built by China owned Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe (PLZ) at Goromonzi, became fully operational in May 2026, mines minister Polite Kambamura confirmed last week. The $400 million facility is Africa's first lithium sulfate plant. Carbonate unit nearing completion, per Kambamura; more sulfate capacity expected sector-wide ahead of the January 2027 concentrate export ban. Policy backdrop: Zimbabwe froze raw mineral exports in February 2026 ahead of the 2027 ban. President Mnangagwa reiterated the stance this week, citing zero tolerance for raw mineral exports going forward. Investment: Over $1 billion in lithium-sector investment logged since February 2026, per policy expert Tedious Ncube figure undisaggregated by project. Scope widens: 13 additional minerals (cobalt, PGMs, rare earths) join the export restriction from January 2027. Kambamura also flagged domestic battery/solar panel manufacturing as a longer-term goal, with no timeline attached. SMM View: Goromonzi's "fully operational" status (May 2026) is confirmed processing capacity log as verified, distinct from the carbonate unit (unconfirmed) and the $1bn investment figure (unverified, project-level breakdown pending).

Zimbabwe's first lithium sulfate plant, built by China-owned Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe at Goromonzi, reached full operational status in May 2026, mines minister Polite Kambamura confirmed last week. The $400 million facility is Africa's first lithium sulfate plant the first beneficiation announcement in Zimbabwe's sector to convert from construction to verified operating capacity. Carbonate unit still pre-commercial. PLZ's lithium carbonate refining facility is reported near completion but unconfirmed operational; more sulfate capacity is expected sector-wide ahead of Zimbabwe's full concentrate export ban, effective January 2027. Policy driver. Zimbabwe froze raw mineral exports in February 2026 ahead of the 2027 ban, forcing producers to build domestic processing capacity or lose export access. The restriction extends to 13 minerals beyond lithium, including cobalt, PGMs, and rare earths, from January 2027. Investment context. Over $1 billion in lithium sector investment has been logged since February 2026, per policy expert Tedious Ncube though the figure is undisaggregated by project and may blend processing and upstream mining capex. Battery manufacturing remains aspirational. Kambamura flagged domestic battery and solar panel production as a longer-term goal, with no capex, partner, or timeline attached. South Africa currently leads Africa's nascent battery-manufacturing capacity. SMM View: Goromonzi is the first verified beneficiation capacity milestone in Zimbabwe's lithium sector log as confirmed, distinct from carbonate and the $1bn aggregate unverified, project-level breakdown pending). Key watch point: whether sulfate or carbonate capacity build keeps pace with the January 2027 export cutoff or risks a supply disruption relevant to our Zimbabwe ban scenario model.

In the second quarter, domestic lithium carbonate prices experienced a V-shaped rebound and then traded in a high-range volatile pattern. The market maintained a tight balance between supply disruptions and resilient demand, with price sensitivity notably heightened. I. Market Performance: Wide Fluctuations with Rising Price Sensitivity In April, prices first fell then rose: early in the month, geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East dragged battery-grade lithium carbonate down to 155,500 yuan/ton; by mid-to-late April, Zimbabwe’s export ban, mining permit renewals in Jiangxi, and rising costs pushed prices back up, ending the month at 177,000 yuan/ton. The monthly average price rose 6% month-on-month. In May, prices trended upward with a monthly average increase of 12%, and the futures main contract briefly broke through RMB 200,000/ton, as time mismatches between supply and demand persisted. In June, record-high import volumes and GFEX stocks remaining at 50,000 tons, combined with fully priced-in demand expectations, pulled the price center lower. Downstream buyers accumulated large inventories at levels below 160,000 yuan/ton. II. Policy Environment: Dual Drivers from Mandatory Recycling Rules and Rigid Energy Storage Targets On April 1, the Interim Measures for the Management of Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles took effect, mandating "integrated vehicle-battery scrap page" and requiring a lithium recovery rate of no less than 85%. This shifts recycling from "encouragement and guidance" to "mandatory compliance," boosting long-term resource circularity. On June 25, the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of a New Energy System set a target of 300 GW of new energy storage installed capacity by 2030, representing over 120% cumulative growth in five years. This elevates energy storage from "optional" to "essential," providing rigid support for lithium demand. III. Supply Side: Steady Release with Structural Disruptions Domestic production maintained a stable pace in Q2, with salt lake ramp-ups and recycling additions pushing monthly output above 107,000 tons and edging higher. External disruptions such as Zimbabwe’s export ban did not significantly impact production, as companies held ample raw material inventories. The inventory pattern shifted from "demand-driven destocking" to "structural volatility underprice bargaining". A declining proportion of long-term contracts exacerbated spot-market fluctuations, with upstream producers firm on prices and downstream buyers cautious in procurement, while traders became the primary buffer. The market entered a high-price-sensitivity tight-balance state. Conclusions In Q2, lithium carbonate prices first rose then corrected, supported by supply disruptions and high production schedules, while record imports and warehouse receipt pressure weighed on June prices. On the policy front, new recycling rules and energy storage targets provide medium-to-long-term support. Supply growth remained relatively stable but with frequent disturbances, and upstream-downstream bargaining deepened. In the short term, the market remains in a high-level tight balance.

In July 2026, the lithium carbonate market experienced a persistent downward trend, with the overall price center of gravity shifting lower. The tug‑of‑war between strong spot fundamentals and weak forward expectations persisted throughout the month. Price : Early in the month, prices rebounded from lows on supply‑contraction expectations, with the main contract LC2609 surging from around RMB 145,300/ton to RMB 167,800/ton—a weekly gain of approximately 8.4%. Thereafter, the market weakened under the combined pressure of anticipated Zimbabwean ore arrivals, progress on domestic lepidolite mine restarts, and expectations of warehouse receipt cancellations. The main contract opened July at RMB 164,000/ton and closed on July 31 at RMB 137,760/ton, falling nearly RMB 30,000/ton over the month with an intra‑month amplitude of 21.55%. In the spot market, the price center for battery‑grade lithium carbonate moved notably lower compared with June. By mid‑July, the futures curve shifted into backwardation, with the spread between near‑term and forward contracts widening further. Supply : Domestic lithium carbonate output edged down month‑on‑month in July, with actual production of approximately 105,000 tons. The decline was mainly attributable to concentrated maintenance at spodumene‑ and lepidolite‑based smelters—temporarily suspended Zimbabwean concentrate exports delayed raw material arrivals, reducing spodumene‑based lithium carbonate output. Salt‑lake operations entered their peak production season, with a modest output increase that partially offset the reduction. Upstream lithium salt producers maintained a strong reluctance to sell spot cargoes, with persistently low willingness to offer, keeping their in‑house inventories at low levels. Demand : Downstream activity remained robust. In July, domestic lithium battery production rose 5.6% month‑on‑month, while LFP cathode material production increased 6.85% month‑on‑month. Downstream material producers continued their strategy of buying on dips as needed, showing strong willingness to purchase for rigid demand below RMB 145,000/ton, but with limited acceptance of higher prices. No large‑scale concentrated restocking emerged. Inventory : Lithium carbonate inventories accelerated their drawdown in July, with social inventories declining for twelve consecutive weeks. Large‑sample inventory data showed a roughly 8% decline over the month, with the weekly drawdown rate accelerating from 2.68% to 4.46%. Structurally, inventories shifted from upstream to downstream, as strong end‑consumption effectively absorbed spot stocks. Outlook : In the near term, lithium carbonate prices are likely to remain in a range‑bound, weakly volatile pattern. Ongoing maintenance and tightening raw material flows provide support, while forward supply‑increase expectations—including progress on the Jianxiawo mine restart and scheduled Zimbabwean ore arrivals—continue to cap upside. High downstream production schedules offer rigid demand support, but the impetus to chase prices remains insufficient. Key factors to monitor include the pace of smelter maintenance resumption, August downstream production expectations, and the actual release rhythm of ore‑side supply.

[SMM Express] More than six weeks after Zimbabwe's Mines Minister Dr Polite Kambamura promised "very soon" to roll out targeted policy interventions for the chrome sector — including a toll-processing model allowing small-scale miners to process ore for a fee rather than sell it to foreign-owned smelters — chrome producers say they are still waiting. Speaking during a technical media tour of Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe in Goromonzi on 17 July, Kambamura highlighted lithium beneficiation as a policy success story, pointing to Zimbabwe's first locally produced lithium sulphate, exported from the Arcadia plant in April, alongside further lithium processing facilities under construction at Kamativi and Sinomine Bikita. Chrome, by contrast, came up in the same discussion as the sector where that model has yet to take hold for smaller producers. Shelton Lucas, business development director at Naivo Mining — which operates chrome, antimony and tungsten projects in Mashava, Ngezi and Kadoma, and who also chairs the Chrome Miners Association of Zimbabwe — said his company remains unable to capture the value of its own raw chrome. "For our raw chrome, we are now forced to sell to local Chinese smelters where they underpay us," Lucas said, adding that unlike antimony, where he has the resources to build a value-addition plant, the cost of chrome processing infrastructure remains prohibitive. His comments echo concerns he raised in early June, when he described local buying prices for chrome ore — then around US$70 per tonne, against international CIF China values several times higher — as reflecting a "predatory price regime." At the time, Kambamura pointed to an existing MMCZ fund intended to capacitate small-scale chrome miners and said he would soon announce policy interventions, including toll processing through government-linked facilities such as ZimAlloys. Zimbabwe's broader mining outlook remains strong: the Chamber of Mines projects 10% sector growth for 2026, with export earnings potentially reaching US$7.5–11 billion, and the Ministry has separately outlined plans for regional beneficiation hubs that would let chrome-producing areas specialize in ferrochrome and chromium alloys. But the gap between that national-level ambition and the lived experience of small-scale chrome producers, still selling raw ore to a limited pool of local smelter buyers more than six weeks after relief was first promised, illustrates a recurring theme in Zimbabwe's beneficiation drive: policy announcements and on-the-ground implementation are not always moving at the same pace, even as the government's own flagship example — lithium — demonstrates what a fully realized beneficiation pathway can look like.

As the traditional "September-October peak season" for auto sales is about to begin, NEV and other demand continues to increase, coupled with the rapid expansion of the energy storage industry, the supply-demand pattern of the upstream lithium carbonate market is ushering in critical changes. According to a China Securities research report, as the demand peak season in H2 2026 arrives, the lithium carbonate supply deficit is expected to gradually widen, peaking in Q4. If early stockpiling by the industry chain is considered, the price peak for the year may occur between the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4.