This week (March 12, 2026–March 18, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 62.59, up 1.52 percentage points WoW. This week, production at smelters in Henan fluctuated slightly but increased overall, while a mid-sized smelter in Hunan resumed production this week, contributing the main increase in output; in Yunnan, one smelter slightly raised production, while the resumption of operations at another smelter was delayed until late March. In addition, some small-scale smelters in Yunnan still had no expectations of resuming production due to raw materials, downstream orders, and other factors.

SMM News, March 20: Lead prices weakened this week, and secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices due to profit pressure. Today, the average scrap battery purchase prices at smelters were: waste e-bike battery at 9,825 yuan/mt, waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) at 9,875 yuan/mt, and waste automotive starter lead-acid battery (black shell) at 10,125 yuan/mt. Recyclers also followed the decline, and after prices were cut, downstream collection outlets held back cargoes, with recycling volume decreasing WoW. Smelter inventory diverged, with low-inventory smelters holding only enough for one week of production, while high-inventory smelters made limited just-in-time procurement after small price cuts. According to the SMM survey, market expectations for lead prices were weak, and if prices continue to weaken next week, scrap battery prices are expected to be lowered again. This week, the mainstream self pick-up price at major ports for imported crude lead was at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while some cargoes were at a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Domestic secondary crude lead cargoes were quoted firmly due to insufficient operating rates caused by cost pressure. As of this Friday, the mainstream tax-excluded ex-factory prices stood near 15,200 yuan/mt. Going into next week, imported lead is still expected to arrive at ports one after another, and downstream enterprises have been active in making inquiries. SMM expects domestic secondary crude lead supply to remain tight. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM, March 20: The SMM weekly operating rate of secondary lead across four provinces stood at 39.57% from March 13 to March 19, 2026, up 10.42 percentage points WoW. Production at enterprises in Anhui was relatively stable, while the resumption progress at other smelters was slow; raw material inventory among enterprises in Henan diverged, with mixed changes in operating rates; enterprises in Jiangsu, affected by losses, showed intentions to cut or suspend production; and a large secondary lead smelter in Inner Mongolia resumed production, driving a sharp increase in the operating rate this week. Next week, enterprises resuming production will continue to release capacity, and market attention should focus on whether loss-making enterprises will implement production suspensions in the secondary lead operating rate. 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

According to customs data, lead concentrate imports in February 2026 were 124,580 mt in physical content, up 3.8% MoM and up 26.4% YoY; cumulative imports in January-February reached 252,241 mt in physical content, up 14% YoY on a cumulative basis. Over the same period, silver concentrate imports were about 148,600 mt in physical content, down 17% MoM and down 8% YoY; cumulative imports in January-February were 328,600 mt in physical content, down 1.27% YoY on a cumulative basis.

It is learned that as of March 19, in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 23,400 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW. Recently, production at primary lead smelters has risen steadily, with relatively ample circulating supply, and most transactions in the spot market were concluded at discounts. During the week, lead prices fell more than expected, and downstream enterprises gradually made purchases at lower prices, further reducing smelters' in-factory inventory. Meanwhile, there were differences in supply between the northern and southern markets. After lead prices fell, smelters in the more south China regions showed significantly stronger sentiment to hold prices firm than those in the northern market. As of March 20, spot order quotations for primary lead were at premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price.

Nickel Ore " Sluggish RKAB Approvals Drive Potential for Ore Price Hikes" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is recovering from previous floods. However, Halmahera continues to be hampered by thunderstorms, resulting in high moisture content and dragging down mining efficiency. The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Although the spot supply of hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. However, given the concerns over RKAB approval uncertainty, the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and the growing demand from outer islands, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to follow the trend of pyrometallurgical ore and remain elevated. On March 3, 2026, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that rumors of a "25%–30% universal increase in RKAB quotas" are false. Quota supplements will be based on individualized assessments of production capacity and compliance, with the approval process not expected to start until the second half of 2026. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices in April are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "NPI Prices See Periodic Retracement as Tug-of-War Intensifies Between Cost Support and Downstream Pressure​​​​​​​" The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 0.3 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1090.2 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.65 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.28 per nickel unit. This week, following consecutive price drops in stainless steel finished products and LME/SHFE nickel, the High-Grade NPI market experienced panic selling and low-price liquidation, entering a phase of periodic decline. From the supply side, With ore prices remaining elevated, smelter production costs continue to rise. However, triggered by the sharp decline in futures markets, some traders began offloading arbitrage stocks at low prices, leading to a general softening of upstream quotes.From the demand side, Weighed down by falling stainless steel prices and the influx of low-priced spot goods, most steel mills have lowered their bid intentions, exerting downward pressure on NPI prices. Overall, while cost support for smelters remains, downstream suppression is evident. The combination of futures-driven market sentiment and loosening upstream quotes has led to a periodic retracement in High-Grade NPI Overall outlook, market transactions will remain under pressure in the short term as the cost-tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. However, the downward room for NPI prices is expected to be limited.

Lead concentrate TCs remained stable this week, but it was no longer common in the Chinese market for silver-bearing lead concentrates to be extremely hard to find. As silver prices remained in the doldrums and there were no bullish expectations for lead prices for the time being, smelters also expected a decline in by-product revenue. As a result, smelters no longer accepted bargaining over lower TC quotes. Demand for all types of raw materials, including lead concentrates and silver-bearing lead concentrates, was mainly driven by rigid demand, and actual transactions were relatively muted. Silver prices retreated from highs, but market traders still held certain expectations for a catch-up rally in silver prices over the medium and long term. At present, the payable indicator for silver in lead concentrates with various silver contents remained stable, and neither mines nor smelters intended to adjust prices.

SMM News, March 20: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,911/mt. During the 9:00–12:00 session, LME lead fluctuated rangebound within $1,906–1,915/mt, holding up well overall and touching a high of $1,915.5/mt. After 12:00, LME lead turned into a unilateral downward trend, plunging to a low of $1,872.5/mt. During the night session, LME lead bottomed out, and by the close it fluctuated higher to repair losses to the $1,895–1,898/mt range, finally closing at $1,897/mt, down $16/mt, or 0.84%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,300 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead fluctuated upward and touched a high of 16,480 yuan/mt, then dropped back slightly and fluctuated rangebound within 16,395–16,460 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,435 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 20 yuan/mt, or 0.12%. Yesterday, SHFE lead pulled back. Suppliers of primary lead showed average willingness to ship, while smelter quotes remained stable; supply in the secondary lead market was relatively ample, and smelters held prices firm on shipments, with overall transactions poor. Downstream battery plants maintained full production, mainly purchasing for rigid demand and long-term contracts, while spot order transactions were mediocre. SMM expects lead prices to remain in the doldrums with fluctuations in the short term.

SMM News, March 20: This week, secondary refined lead was mostly quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with some cargoes available for delivered premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Affected by falling lead prices, downstream wait-and-see sentiment, and relatively cautious procurement, suppliers showed weak willingness to sell, and overall market transactions were sluggish. This week, secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices, easing raw material cost pressure, and losses narrowed WoW; as of March 20, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises stood at -337 yuan/mt, versus -541 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (the model's by-product revenue did not include tin and antimony). As smelters that resumed production continued to release capacity, ample supply weighed on lead prices. Combined with the wide range of cargo types available to downstream enterprises, spot order premiums for secondary refined lead are expected to narrow next week, while actual prices will still depend on changes in raw material costs. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

As of Thursday this week, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price edged down slightly WoW. Demand side, trading sentiment was weak in mid-month, and some producers made inquiries recently, but as downstream orders remained unclear, acceptance of high-priced nickel salt was weak; supply side, due to uncertainty in Indonesia's recent MHP supply, MHP payables moved higher, driving up raw material costs for some producers and correspondingly lifting their quotes. Looking ahead, with the month-end procurement period approaching, attention should be paid to support from the raw material side for nickel sulphate prices. Inventory, this week upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index held at 4.7 days, downstream precursor plant inventory index fell from 7.1 days to 6.8 days, and integrated enterprises' inventory index held at 6.8 days; in terms of buyer-seller strength, this week the upstream nickel salt smelters' Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor held at 1.8, the downstream precursor plants' procurement sentiment factor fell from 2.7 to 2.6, and integrated enterprises' sentiment factor held at 2.4. (Historical data is available in the database.)