Copper prices hit another record high this week, with LME copper breaking through the $11,200/mt mark and continuing to surge, testing $11,700/mt on Friday, while SHFE copper also rose sharply to just below 93,000 yuan/mt. Overall performance was very strong during the week. From a macro perspective, renewed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts were the main driver. Trump's plan to nominate a dovish candidate as Fed Chairman, Treasury Secretary Yellen's clear signals of interest rate cuts, and ADP employment data significantly below expectations collectively strengthened market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. The persistently low ISM manufacturing PMI indicated weak economic momentum, and the US dollar index remained under pressure and pulled back throughout the week, providing clear support for copper prices. On the fundamental side, long-term contract negotiations for copper concentrates remained unresolved, with market sources indicating that mines' latest offer for next year's long-term TC was -$15/mt. Meanwhile, several miners lowered their medium-term production forecasts. A large number of cancelled warrant requests emerged at LME warehouses mid-week, hinting at the early formation of a scenario with high copper prices and a high backwardation. On the demand side, rapid copper price increases suppressed activity, prompting downstream enterprises to adopt a more cautious procurement approach, with transactions primarily driven by just-in-time needs. Looking ahead to next week, with the US Fed's policy meeting approaching, the combination of interest rate cut expectations and fundamental tightness suggests that LME copper still has upside room, and the pattern of overseas market outperforming domestic market may deepen further. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $11,200/mt and $12,000/mt, while SHFE copper is projected to trade between 90,500 yuan/mt and 94,500 yuan/mt. For spot markets, downstream acceptance of high premiums and high copper prices is limited, and end-use consumption continues to rely on just-in-time procurement, yet inventory tightness remains a reality. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2512 contract are expected to range from a premium of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 280 yuan/mt.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2601 contract opened at 80,640 yuan/mt and closed lower intraday. During the night session, BC copper opened higher with a gap, starting at 80,640 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of 82,430 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 82,080 yuan/mt, up 2,040 yuan/mt, a gain of 2.55%. Open interest reached 5,113 lots, an increase of 315 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 12,755 lots, up 7,881 lots. On the macro front, US ADP employment in November fell by 32,000, far below market expectations and the lowest since March 2023. Combined with Treasury Secretary Yellen's expectations for interest rate cuts, this put the US dollar under pressure, supporting copper prices. Additionally, Glencore's downward revision of its near-to-medium-term copper production expectations intensified market concerns over short-term supply tightness, further underpinning copper prices. On the fundamentals, supply of high-quality copper remained tight, while demand-side purchasing sentiment was subdued as copper prices hit new highs. The most-traded SHFE copper 2601 contract settled at 90,980 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2601 contract price of 82,080 yuan/mt and its post-tax price of 92,750 yuan/mt, the price spread between the SHFE copper 2601 contract and the BC copper contract was -1,770 yuan/mt, maintaining an inverted spread that widened from the previous day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,402.5/mt, initially declined to a low of $11,330.5/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually shifted upward to a high of $11,540/mt, subsequently fluctuated downward and finally closed at $11,448.5/mt, with a gain of 2.72%. Trading volume reached 44,100 lots, and open interest reached 335,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper contract 2601 opened at 90,070 yuan/mt, initially dipped to 90,050 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and approached a high of 91,240 yuan/mt near the end of the session, finally closing at 90,760 yuan/mt, with a gain of 2.01%. Trading volume reached 126,500 lots, and open interest reached 231,000 lots.

[SMM International Trade Tariff Update] US Treasury Secretary Yellen disclosed the following points: first, the revised employment data for 2024 may be lowered by 800,000 jobs; second, she expressed confidence in the government's victory in the Supreme Court's tariff ruling; third, if the court rules against imposing tariffs, the government will have to refund the taxes already collected.

SMM Nickel News on August 20: Macro news: (1) According to data from the Ministry of Finance, from January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13,583.9 billion yuan, up 0.1% YoY. Among this, the national tax revenue was 11,093.3 billion yuan, down 0.3% YoY; non-tax revenue was 2,490.6 billion yuan, up 2% YoY. From January to July, stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, up 20.7% YoY. Of which, securities transaction stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, up 62.5% YoY. (2) US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview on the 19th that the US and China had "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues. Yellen stated, "We have had very good dialogue with China, and I expect we will meet again before November. I think the current work is going well." Spot market: Today, SMM #1 refined nickel prices were 119,400-122,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 120,900 yuan/mt, down 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel ranged from 2,300-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel spot premiums and discounts was -100-300 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract opened lower and trended downward, influenced by the overall decline in commodity sentiment, with prices dropping below 120,000 yuan/mt. By midday, SHFE nickel was quoted at 119,700 yuan/mt, down 0.67% on the day. Currently, nickel prices are mainly affected by macro sentiment. Expectations of loose domestic policies and a phased pullback in the US dollar provide support to nickel prices, but upside room remains constrained by geopolitical uncertainties and high inventory pressure. In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate in a tug-of-war between weak fundamentals and supportive macro sentiment, with a price range of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Nickel Market Update on July 30: Macro News: (1) From July 28 to 29 local time, Chinese Vice Premier and chief trade negotiator He Lifeng held economic and trade talks with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Trade Representative Katherine Tai in Stockholm, Sweden. Based on the consensus reached, both sides agreed to extend the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US and China's countermeasures for another 90 days as scheduled. (2) Donald Trump stated that if Russia fails to make progress in ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US would impose tariffs and take other measures within 10 days. He expressed no concern about the impact of sanctions on Russia's oil market, noting the US could increase oil production. Spot Market: Today, SMM #1 refined nickel prices ranged between 121,800-124,300 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,050 yuan/mt, up 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel were quoted at 2,000-2,200 yuan/mt, averaging 2,100 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt day-on-day. The premiums/discounts for spot electrodeposited nickel from domestic major brands fluctuated between -200-300 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract remained in the doldrums during the day. By midday, SHFE nickel was quoted at 121,850 yuan/mt, down 0.04%. The tariff extension between China and the US eased trade tensions, but the US set a new 10-day ceasefire deadline (originally 50 days) for Russia, threatening to impose 100% tariffs otherwise, keeping geopolitical and tariff risks alive. Meanwhile, with the US Fed's July policy meeting approaching, market expectations for a September interest rate cut dropped to 58% (previously 65%). Nickel prices continue to fluctuate amid policy expectations, maintaining a short-term fluctuating trend, with the projected price range at 120,000-125,000 yuan/mt.