This week (Aug. 3 – Aug. 7), the weekly average warrant transaction price range for Yangshan copper premiums was $101–$112/mt, QP August, with an average of $106/mt; the weekly average B/L transaction price range was $96–$107/mt, QP September, with an average of $102/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L prices were $64–$73/mt, QP September, with an average of $69/mt. As of Aug. 7, the ex-exchange rate SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2608 contract against LME copper was 1.1247, with an import loss of around 1,385.43 yuan/mt, expanding by about 857 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday, the backwardation structure for the August LME copper date widened WoW, with the carry spread between the August and September dates at −$61.53/mt. Currently, mainstream offer prices for ER registered copper B/L have dropped to double-digit levels; mainstream warrant offer prices for registered copper were near $100/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums pulled back from high levels, mainly because the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate, compounded by the widening backwardation structure of nearby LME contracts, which increased suppliers' willingness to offer cargo. Meanwhile, as copper prices surged, downstream consumption demand was poor. Additionally, high premiums in the domestic market previously attracted cancelled warrants from LME Asian warehouses, which gradually arrived in China, causing temporary congestion at Shanghai Port. Together with some export cargo pressuring prices, market spot premiums weakened. According to SMM data, China's bonded zone copper inventories as of Thursday this week (Aug. 6) decreased by about 6,000 mt WoW from the previous period (Jul. 30) to 31,100 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventory decreased by 6,500 mt WoW to 26,900 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventory increased by 500 mt WoW to 4,200 mt. The weekly bonded zone inventory decline was mainly because of reports that cargo ships were heading to the US. Additionally, the slight opening of the export window led to small-scale exports by some smelters to the bonded zone. Looking ahead, the siphoning effect from North America continues, so the logic of overall supply constraints in the market remains. However, with the SHFE/LME price ratio significantly inverted, consumption demand suppressed by high copper prices, and expectations of concentrated cargo arrivals at ports, traders' psychological price expectations for spot cargo are rapidly declining, and imported copper premiums are expected to see a temporary pullback. Additionally, with the export window slightly open, smelters have export expectations. According to SMM, export volumes in the first week of August up to now have been relatively limited, and future export volumes need continued monitoring.

On August 7, the average warrant price fell $3/mt from the previous trading day to $101/mt (price range: $95-107/mt); the average B/L price fell $3/mt to $97/mt (price range: $90-104/mt); and the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell $2/mt to $65/mt (price range: $60-70/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving from August to early September. As the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate, the early market was mostly cautious, with quiet bids and offers. As copper prices shot up and consumption demand was weak, combined with some export cargoes weighing on prices, the spot premium pulled back in stages, and traders’ psychological price expectations trended lower. It was heard that mainstream quotations for August registered warrants were around $100/mt in the market today.

The average warrant price on August 4 fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $110/mt (price range: $106-114/mt); the average B/L price dropped $1/mt to $105/mt (price range: $100-110/mt); and the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) declined $1/mt to $71/mt (price range: $67-75/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving in August. The SHFE/LME price ratio for nearby contracts remained in inverted territory while the backwardation structure continued to widen. Market offers increased, with some suppliers slightly lowering their quotations under pressure. However, the overall supply-demand weakness persisted, and buyers and sellers remained locked in a standoff. EQ copper arriving in early August was reportedly quoted at $68-70/mt, registered B/L for August arrival traded at $113/mt with mainstream quotations at $110-120/mt, and registered warrants traded around $110/mt.

On July 31, the average warrant price remained unchanged from the previous trading day, standing at $112/mt (price range: $108-116/mt); the average B/L price remained unchanged from the previous trading day, standing at $107/mt (price range: $104-110/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell by $1/mt from the previous trading day to $74/mt (price range: $70-78/mt), with quotes referencing August-arrival cargoes. The SHFE/LME price ratio weakened slightly today, with the backwardation structure for nearby contracts widening. As expectations of tightness in available supply weakened and downstream buying interest remained sluggish, the premium lacked further upward momentum. It was heard that EQ copper arriving in late August was traded at $75/mt; mainstream quotations for registered B/Ls arriving in August were around $115-120/mt; and mainstream quotations for EQ copper arriving from August to early September were at $75-85/mt.

This week (July 27 – July 30), the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premiums B/L transactions was $104–$110/mt, QP August, with an average price of $107/mt; the weekly average price range for warrant transactions was $108–$117/mt, QP August, with an average price of $112/mt; EQ copper CIF B/L was $70–$80/mt, QP August, with an average price of $75/mt. As of July 30, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2608 contract after excluding exchange rates was 1.1345, with an import loss of approximately 528 yuan/mt, which was a narrowing of roughly 107 yuan/mt from the previous week. As of Thursday, the LME copper backwardation structure for the August date widened WoW, with the spread between the August date and the September date at -$12.94/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for ER copper B/L are around $115–$120/mt; mainstream offers for registered copper warrants are around $120–$125/mt; mainstream offers for CIF B/L EQ copper are around $75–$85/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums maintained a relatively stable trend. As expectations of tight available spot supply began to weaken, premiums lacked further upward momentum. However, influenced by the persistently unfavorable SHFE/LME price ratio, mediocre downstream consumption demand, and a widened backwardation structure in near-term LME contracts, seller offers increased, yet downstream buyers remained cautious at high prices and stayed on the sidelines. Both parties held divergent positions, leading to a further stalemate throughout the week, resulting in sluggish actual transactions. According to SMM, as of Thursday this week (July 30), China's bonded zone copper inventories decreased by approximately 100 mt MoM from the previous period (July 23) to 37,100 mt. Among these, Shanghai bonded inventories increased by 100 mt MoM to 33,400 mt, and Guangdong bonded inventories decreased by 200 mt MoM to 3,700 mt. Bonded zone inventory showed minimal destocking changes, with both warehouse inflows and warehouse withdrawals remaining low during the week. Looking ahead, overall market supply will remain constrained due to the sustained siphoning effect from North America. However, the market situation is expected to tighten further entering August. Cargoes previously canceled from LME Asian warehouses and shipped to China will arrive at ports in batches gradually during August. If consumption fails to show a significant improvement, the import SHFE/LME price ratio will struggle to rebound, and short-term supply growth could impact spot premiums.

Over the week of July 20-23, the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premium B/L transactions stood at $104-111/mt, QP August, averaging $108/mt; warrant transactions averaged $105-115/mt, QP August, averaging $110/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L was at $69-78/mt, QP August, averaging $73/mt. As of July 23, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE 2608 contract after excluding exchange rate was 1.1334, with an import loss of around 635.6 yuan/mt, widening by about 261 yuan/mt from the same period last week. As of Thursday, the LME copper August date shifted to a backwardation structure, with a carry spread of -$4.14/mt between the August and September dates. Currently, mainstream offers for pyrometallurgy-registered copper B/L are around $110-120/mt, while CIF B/L EQ copper mainstream offers are around $75-90/mt. Yangshan copper premiums showed a retreat-after-rapid-rise trend this week. At the start of the week, the market continued to price in the shortage of available supply. As the COMEX-LME price spread widened again, the North American siphoning effect strengthened, COMEX-registered brands were scarce, China's social inventory fell to a low level, and LME nearby contracts shifted to backwardation, sellers' offers kept surging. However, due to persistently unfavorable price ratios, offers pulled back towards the end of the week. Overall, the market grappled with tight supply and sluggish demand, resulting in low physical trading activity amid weak supply-demand conditions. According to SMM, as of Thursday, July 23, China's bonded zone copper inventory fell by 1,700 mt WoW from July 16 to 37,200 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventory fell by 1,500 mt WoW to 33,300 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventory fell by 200 mt WoW to 3,900 mt. The bonded zone inventory shifted from destocking to inventory buildup, mainly because some suppliers were optimistic about future premiums and price ratios, showing low willingness to sell, which reduced bonded zone warehouse withdrawals. Looking ahead, with US tariffs still pending and the siphoning effect persisting, the market is still trading the tight supply narrative. However, it is worth noting that LME cancelled warrants have increased continuously recently, with the ratio rising above 60%, mainly from US and Asian warehouses. According to SMM, some supply is being shipped to China and will arrive in a first round of concentrated arrivals in late July. Attention should be paid to this supply replenishment, which, combined with persistently inverted price ratios and softening downstream demand, could push the premium center to pull back.

The average warrant price on July 22 rose $6/mt from the previous trading day to $115/mt (price range $110-120/mt); the average B/L price rose $4/mt to $112/mt (price range $108-116/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $5/mt to $79/mt (price range $75-83/mt), with offers referencing cargoes arriving from mid-to-late July to late August. The tight availability of marketable cargoes continued to support premiums. The COMEX-LME price spread widened, the ratio of cancelled warrants on the LME rose, and near-month contracts shifted to a backwardation structure. However, the weakening SHFE/LME price ratio and higher copper prices limited downstream rigid demand, resulting in only sporadic deals. It was heard that yesterday, a registered B/L for late-July arrival traded at $115/mt. Today, mainstream registered B/L offers for late-August arrival were quoted at $115-120/mt, and EQ copper for August arrival was quoted at $83-90/mt.

This week (July 13-16), the weekly average B/L transaction price range for Yangshan copper premiums was $84-95/mt, QP August, averaging $90/mt; the weekly average warrant transaction price range was $85-95/mt, QP August, averaging $90/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L was $53-61/mt, QP August, averaging $57/mt. As of July 16, the ex-FX SHFE/LME copper price ratio for LME copper against the SHFE copper 2608 contract stood at 1.1426, with an import loss around 374.65 yuan/mt, widening from the prior period. As of Thursday, the LME copper front-end was in a contango structure, with the spread between the August and September dates at −$7.45/mt. Currently, mainstream offer indications for pyrometallurgical registered copper B/L are around $100-110/mt, and for EQ copper CIF B/L around $65-70/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums continued their upward momentum, still driven primarily by expectations of persistently tight market supply, which prompted suppliers to hold back from selling. Available cargoes were scarce during the week, and domestic social inventory continued destocking, giving upstream sellers strong confidence to hold prices firm. Spot premiums repeatedly hit new highs for the year, but downstream demand showed mediocre performance, with limited actual transactions. On the price ratio front, the ratio weakened over the week, yet sellers held an optimistic outlook for the near term. Overall, sellers’ firm pricing and downstream fear of high prices intertwined, presenting a weak supply-demand picture. According to SMM, as of Thursday (July 16), domestic bonded zone copper inventories increased by about 3,300 mt WoW from July 13 to 38,900 mt. Shanghai bonded inventory rose 2,900 mt WoW to 34,800 mt, and Guangdong bonded inventory rose 400 mt WoW to 4,100 mt. The bonded zone inventory shifted from destocking to buildup, mainly because some suppliers took an optimistic view on future premiums and the price ratio, showing low willingness to sell and leading to reduced warehouse withdrawals. Looking ahead, amid the siphoning effect from North America and production losses in Africa due to rising production costs, the market will continue to trade the tight availability of cargoes in the near term. However, it is worth noting that LME cancelled warrants have increased significantly recently, and according to SMM, some cargoes are already being shipped to China. Attention should be paid to the volume of this supply replenishment and the downstream's actual consumption capacity to absorb the high premiums.

On July 16, the average warrant price rose $5/mt from the previous trading day, quoted at $95/mt (price range $90-100/mt); the average B/L price rose $6/mt, quoted at $95/mt (price range $90-100/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $3/mt, quoted at $60/mt (price range $57-63/mt), referencing cargoes arriving from mid-to-late July to mid-to-late August. Currently, China's social inventory continued to destock, and market supply remained tight, largely as LME cancelled warrants were shipped to China. Suppliers with limited cargo in hand held firm quotations, and the actual transaction price center continued to move up, though trading volume was low, leaving the market in a state of weak supply and demand. Today, it was heard that a registered B/L arriving in mid-to-late August traded at $100/mt, and a small volume of EQ copper was quoted at $70/mt.

This week (July 6 – July 9), the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premium B/L transactions was $73–$87/mt, QP August, with an average price of $80/mt; the weekly average price range for warrant transactions was $74–$85/mt, QP August, with an average price of $80/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L was at $43–$54/mt, QP August, with an average price of $49/mt. As of July 9, the forex-adjusted SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2607 contract against LME copper was 1.1406, with an import profit near 200.22 yuan/mt, compared to a loss of 163.35 yuan/mt in the previous period, with the arbitrage window open. As of Thursday, the front-end contango structure of LME copper widened, with the carry spread between the July date and August date at −$42.98/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for high-quality ER copper warrants are around $90–$100/mt, and mainstream offers for B/L are around $90–$100/mt; CIF B/L EQ copper traded around $50–$60/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums showed a rapid uptrend. The logic remained: low port arrivals from July to August led to persistently tight supply, giving suppliers strong sentiment to hold back from selling and hold prices firm, significantly lifting market offers and transaction centers. On the SHFE/LME price ratio side, the import price ratio swung from a loss to a profit, and downstream restocking actions occurred due to a typhoon. However, the rapid rise in premiums has caused current divergence between upstream and downstream players. Overall, limited available cargo, tight supply, and an open arbitrage window were the core drivers of this round's premium rise. According to the SMM survey, as of Thursday this week (July 9), China's bonded zone copper inventory decreased by about 4,400 mt MoM from the previous period (July 2) to 35,300 mt. Inventory in the Shanghai bonded zone was down 3,900 mt MoM to 31,900 mt, and in the Guangdong bonded zone, it was down 500 mt MoM to 3,400 mt. Bonded zone inventory destocked for a third consecutive week, consistent with shrinking port arrivals and tightening available cargo; the destocking pace widened from last week (a 1,300 mt decline), mainly due to low restocking into the bonded zone. Looking ahead, the pattern of tight arrivals from July to August continues to materialize, and supply-side support for premiums is likely to persist. Coupled with a rising import price ratio and a far-end shift to a backwardation structure, this is expected to continue giving suppliers confidence to hold prices firm. However, attention should be paid to whether current downstream actual consumption demand can support the sustained rise in premiums.