SMM, July 29: On July 29, precious metals futures in and outside China showed mediocre performance, while A-share precious metals equities moved relatively independently, with futures and equities diverging. As the US Fed’s interest rate meeting approached, trading in precious metals futures turned cautious, with growing wait-and-see sentiment and neither bulls nor bears establishing a consistent direction, keeping prices moving sideways. The A-share precious metals sector trended relatively strong. On one hand, the sector had undergone earlier corrections, leaving room for valuation repair; on the other, the market traded on the medium- and long-term trend of gold prices and miners’ profit expectations, while positive H1 earnings previews from precious metals companies like Chifeng Gold also boosted market sentiment. Futures market: As of around 14:13 on July 29, COMEX gold fell 0.13% to $4,033.4/oz; SHFE gold main contract fell 0.59% to 883.12 yuan/g; COMEX silver rose 0.97% to $58.085/oz; SHFE silver main contract fell 0.27% to 14,181 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 0.79% to 14,120 yuan/kg. Stock market: At the close on July 29, the precious metals sector rose 2.58%. Among individual stocks, Western Gold surged over 5%, and Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver&Tin, Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold, Hunan Silver, and Shanjin International led the gains. News [Chifeng Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 54%-61% YoY] Chifeng Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 1.7–1.78 billion yuan, up 54%–61% YoY. [Zhaojin Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 347.48%–436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 200–240 million yuan, up 347.48%–436.98% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 80–116 million yuan, up 490.44%–756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 81.06%–122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 570–700 million yuan, up 81.06%–122.36% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 272–402 million yuan, down 2.03%–33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 280.16%–333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 13, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 500–570 million yuan, up 280.16%–333.39% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 490–580 million yuan, up 172.96%–223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: Expected H1 2026 Net Profit at 4.1 Billion-4.6 Billion Yuan, Up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent to be 4.1 billion to 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY; deducted non-recurring profit is expected to be 4.05 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%-53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On July 29, the SMM #1 silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 14,038 yuan/kg, up 0.4% from the previous trading day. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted. Suppliers showed growing sentiment to hold back from selling, with some offers leaning toward premiums, while downstream buyers preferred negotiated deals at slight discounts, though transactions were basically maintained near parity today. Early session quotes in the Shanghai area were mainly centered around TD parity to a premium of 10 yuan/kg, with deals leaning toward the lower end. Affected by seasonal factors, silver ingot production pulled back slightly this month, and both domestic and overseas demand was sluggish. Overall, offers remained firm but transactions were limited. In the Shenzhen area, some national standard material was concentrated around a discount of 5 yuan/kg against the TD contract to parity; low-priced cargoes existed but did not cause significant disruption to spot trade. Today's premium and discount quote for the spot market against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract was at a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg. Overall, the market focus was on the US Fed's July policy meeting and the digestion of subsequent policy signals. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted, with deals maintained near parity. Market Voices Outlook for precious metals from some institutions is as follows: A Reuters survey showed that analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023, following a sharp pullback from record highs in January, but most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability. The median forecast for gold prices in 2026 from the survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks was $4,509 per ounce. That was down from $4,916 three months ago and marked the first forecast cut in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 was $4,610, compared with $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January but suffered a sharp pullback in Q2, posting their worst quarter since 2013, as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and pushed up rate hike expectations. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jin10 Data APP) ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey pointed out that gold prices rose on Monday, driven by a sharp decline in oil prices that eased inflation concerns and weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields. The sharp drop in oil prices on Monday eased inflation concerns and the prospect of further monetary tightening. This move followed a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week's Fed meeting. Markets are now focusing on the US Fed and the upcoming US inflation data for further guidance on the rate outlook. If yields remain subdued, gold should continue to find support around current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could cap further upside room in the near term. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain subdued in Q3, despite the third quarter historically being a peak season for seasonal stockpiling. This is due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts, which are curbing fresh import demand. However, Citi maintains its 0-3 month short-term gold price target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Fed turning less hawkish; many near-term risks could still cause gold prices to revisit lower levels, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed stance. UBS gold strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic on gold’s medium- to long-term outlook. She noted in a commentary that gold prices have been rising since the start of this week, with mainland China and Hong Kong gold stocks surging about 20% over three days, which is a positive signal. “We believe market confidence in gold is starting to improve and we continue to expect gold prices to rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. The UBS Global team remains optimistic on gold’s medium-term outlook and forecasts gold prices will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 by end-2027, respectively. She noted that key events to watch next are the US Fed’s policy tone at the late-July FOMC meeting and further developments in the Middle East. (Jin10 Data APP) ANZ Research analysts said in a report that physical gold demand for the metal and central bank buying are supporting the gold market. They added that while gold faces near-term headwinds from hawkish Fed expectations and a firm US dollar, investment positioning in gold looks light after months of ETF outflows, suggesting that further downside may be limited. High interest rate environments usually drag on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from expectations of a tighter US Fed stance, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong, and according to the bank's estimates, central banks bought 81 mt of gold in May, with a three-month average monthly purchase volume of 67 mt, well above the average of 17 mt before 2022. Goldman analysts said, "We believe the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will persist for years as they hedge geopolitical and financial risks through reserve diversification." The bank forecasts average monthly purchases of 50 mt for this year and 40 mt for next year. (Jin10 Data APP) Soojin Kim, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, "Recent price movements indicate that the market is paying more attention to the possibility that US interest rates will stay high for longer, rather than gold's traditional safe-haven demand. This makes gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a widespread deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jin10 Data APP) Fidelity International, an asset manager, said it plans to rebuild its gold positions, which were reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold's long-term drivers remain strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, "We plan to rebuild our gold positions; it is just a question of timing." He said he reduced his gold allocation to a neutral level during January-February, just as gold's multi-year bull run came to an abrupt end. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic of a return to a bull market would only be undermined if "governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to pushing inflation back down," but "I don't think we are in that world right now." Samson added that continued gold purchases by central banks—a key driver of the previous bull run—will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows that after a deep pullback in H1, gold prices are gradually showing signs of bottoming near $4,000, with only an event catalyst needed to fuel a rally. It suggests building positions near $4,000 in batches on dips and avoiding chasing rallies. The core allocation logic: First, valuations are at historically low levels, offering a prominent margin of safety. After the deep pullback in H1, the valuation levels of gold mining companies have plunged from the beginning of the year to low levels, offering high odds. Going forward, besides a valuation recovery, they are expected to also benefit from price elasticity brought by rising gold prices. Second, the earnings elasticity advantage is significant. Gold stocks act as an amplifier for gold prices—ore mining costs are rigid, and gold price increases directly translate into profit growth, with earnings elasticity far exceeding the gold price rise itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities notes: In the medium term, the market’s core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of “inflation stickiness resilience exceeding expectations → the US Fed maintaining high interest rates for an extended period → repeated intensification of interest rate hike expectations within the year.” The gold price center is still dominated by US real Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and the overall trend is likely to continue to consolidate on a subdued note. Currently, ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East are stuck in repeated games, with significant differences between the parties on core demands such as troop withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility inspection mechanisms, and control rights and passage fee rules for the Strait of Hormuz waterway. The recurring nature of geopolitical conflicts continues to disrupt global crude oil supply expectations, and the upside risk of energy prices may further consolidate inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the US Fed’s tight policy stance. At the same time, the synchronous rise of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has formed a dual headwind. Combined with gold’s safe-haven attribute temporarily giving way to interest rate pricing logic, the upside room for gold prices may continue to be constrained. Key events to watch in the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict situation and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the US Fed interest rate decision to be announced on July 30; 3) the US June PCE to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold’s upward logic has not weakened; rather, it has been further strengthened amid changes in the global macro and geopolitical landscape. 1) The constraints of the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying great power competition are undermining the stability of the US dollar credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets towards diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into an important asset for hedging sovereign credit risk, geopolitical fragmentation risk, and the risk of restructuring the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks still provide solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC’s continued increase in holdings further validates the official sector’s long-term allocation demand. 3) In the late cycle of the US economy, it faces multiple constraints of high interest rates, credit contraction, and a slowdown in growth. In the future, whether the US Fed cuts interest rates due to economic slowdown or is forced to maintain high rates for longer due to inflation stickiness, gold has strong long-term allocation value: the former favors a decline in real interest rates, while the latter strengthens safe-haven and credit risk resistance demand. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window in the medium and long term, and the price center is expected to continue shifting upward amid the reshaping of the global macro and geopolitical landscape. Recommended Reading:

SMM, July 21: US Secretary of State Rubio stated in a media interview on the evening of the 19th that the Trump administration “remains open to a diplomatic solution.” Expectations of a negotiated settlement between the two sides in the market tug-of-war heated up, and international oil prices pulled back in tandem. Earlier inflation concerns driven by energy prices cooled, and the market’s bets on the US Fed holding high interest rates weakened marginally. Coupled with a sharp rebound in Asia-Pacific stock markets today, overall market risk appetite improved. The built-up sentiment for an oversold rebound in precious metals was released in a concentrated manner, and multiple positive factors resonated to drive a rebound in both precious metals futures and equity prices. Zhaojin Gold, Shandong Humon Smelting, Western Gold, and other precious metals enterprises reported positive H1 earnings forecasts, and the favour from some market funds also contributed to the synchronized strength in precious metals futures and stocks. As of around 13:35 on July 21, COMEX gold was up 1.07% at $4,058.7/oz; SHFE gold main contract rose 1.31% to 885.6 yuan/g; COMEX silver gained 2.13% to $58.285/oz; SHFE silver main contract advanced 3.65% to 14,186 yuan/kg; silver T+D increased 2.84% to 14,113 yuan/kg. Additionally, platinum main contract rose 1.63% to 399.3 yuan/g, and palladium main contract gained 2.87% to 302.4 yuan/g. Precious metals stocks surged. As of the close on July 21, the precious metals sector rose 7.34%. Among individual stocks: Xingye Silver&Tin, Chifeng Gold, and Shengda Resources hit the daily limit up; Xiaocheng Technology, Shanjin International, Hunan Silver, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold were among the top gainers. News [Russia’s gold holdings fell to 73.4 million ounces in June] The Russian central bank stated on its website that as of month-end June, the value of its reserves was $299 billion, compared with $325.9 billion at the end of May. [World Gold Council: Chinese market gold ETFs saw significant inflows in H1] According to the World Gold Council, gold prices weakened in June, erasing earlier gains, and H1 ended with a decline. Despite outflows in June, Chinese market gold ETFs still recorded significant inflows in H1, driving total assets under management slightly up to 243 billion yuan, with total holdings increasing by 29 mt to 277 mt. [Zhaojin Gold: expects H1 2026 net profit to increase 347.48%-436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 14. It expects H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent at 200 million to 240 million yuan, up 347.48%-436.98% YoY; and non-recurring net profit of 80 million to 116 million yuan, up 490.44%-756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit Up 81.06%-122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 570 million – 700 million yuan, up 81.06%–122.36% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 272 million – 402 million yuan, down 2.03%–33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit Up 280.16%-333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 500 million – 570 million yuan, up 280.16%–333.39% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 490 million – 580 million yuan, up 172.96%–223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit of 4.1 Billion – 4.6 Billion Yuan, Up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.1 billion – 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%–70.7% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 4.05 billion – 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%–53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On July 21, the SMM 1# silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 13,825 yuan/kg, with the average up 0.7% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, premium/discount quotes that day extended the trend of previous days, with consumption remaining sluggish and transactions being mostly at parity to slight discounts. The spot-futures price spread on the futures market widened slightly, and some suppliers reduced shipments. Early morning quotes in the Shanghai area were mainly concentrated at TD parity to +5 yuan/kg, with some rigid demand orders supporting transactions and suppliers’ willingness to sell weakening. In the Shenzhen area, some national-standard cargoes were concentrated around TD -5 yuan/kg to parity, with low-priced cargoes existing but having limited disruption. That day, the market’s premium/discount against the SHFE2608 contract was at a discount of 20 – 30 yuan/kg; against the most-traded SHFE contract 2610, it was at a discount of 40 – 60 yuan/kg. Overall, precious metals lacked clear guidance from news, and recently both domestic and overseas futures markets have shown signs of bulls entering, so attention can be paid to changes in open interest. Spot premiums/discounts traded near parity, and the pattern of weak supply and demand persisted. Platinum On July 21, spot platinum was quoted at 395 – 398 yuan/g, with the average price at 396.5 yuan/g, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum were at parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. The premiums/discounts of mainstream quotations were basically flat from the previous trading day. Today, the price spread between the GFEX platinum October and August futures contracts widened slightly. In the morning, suppliers' quotes for spot platinum were mainly at premiums of 0.5 to 1 yuan/g against the most-traded GFEX contract. Later, as the futures market rose, some suppliers adjusted their quotes to around parity, where transactions were made. Downstream users made small purchases based on orders. Overall, the spot platinum market saw normal trading volumes today. In July, a Section 232 window for platinum and palladium will open. If the US imposes tariffs on platinum and palladium after the 180-day negotiation period ends, it will support prices in the short term. Voices from Various Sides Regarding the future trend of precious metals, some institutions' views are as follows: Jinyuan Futures research report stated: The recent escalating US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices higher, lifting inflation expectations. Precious metals remained under pressure but their decline slowed. After the sharp pullback in gold and silver prices, bargain-hunting buying emerged. The correction in US tech stocks will also redirect some funds into precious metals. Although the correction trend in gold and silver is not yet over, the probability of a rebound is increasing. Hundun Futures research report noted: As geopolitical tensions continue to seesaw, the market is not yet convinced enough to expect an overall pullback in oil prices. Inflation expectations could rebound from lows, limiting the decline in US bond yields. Hence, the rebound in precious metals remains limited under these circumstances. The US Fed's relatively cautious remarks have also capped the rebound in precious metals. Fed Chairman Warsh said the balance sheet should be kept as small as possible so that it can expand in a crisis. The labour market looks quite good, but he is not optimistic about inflation and is dissatisfied with it; Fed's Williams stated that with inflation still elevated, it must be brought back sustainably to the 2% target, and the current monetary policy stance is very well positioned to achieve that; Logan said that a modest rate hike now would help better balance the outlook and risks, and moderate tightening now is better than having to tighten significantly later. The Fed's stance is clearly cautious, unwilling to let the market overprice a relaxation of vigilance. The market dares not further trade interest rate cut expectations, and precious metals weakened again. Liquidity and risk appetite remain weak under the influence of the equity market. As AI fundamentals are being reassessed, deleveraging in funding further amplifies volatility. The continued decline in the equity market has made liquidity relatively tight and restricted the drivers for precious metals. At this stage, the overall market is still dominated by sentiment-driven trading. Geopolitics, the AI narrative, and economic/inflation resilience mean the US dollar index and US bond yields will remain volatile. A trend reversal in precious metals still needs to be observed. Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical gold demand and central bank purchases are supporting the gold market. These analysts added that while gold faces short-term headwinds from the US Fed’s tightening expectations and a strong US dollar, investment positions in gold look thin after months of exchange-traded fund outflows, suggesting that the scope for further declines may be limited. A high interest rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets such as gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs said that despite pressure from the US Fed’s tightening-leaning expectations, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains robust, with central banks purchasing 81 mt in May and a three-month average of 67 mt per month, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt, according to the firm’s estimates. Goldman Sachs analysts stated, “We believe the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings will persist for years as they diversify reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks.” The bank expects average monthly purchases of 50 mt and 40 mt for this year and next year, respectively. (Jinshi Data APP) Soojin Kim, analyst at MUFG, said, “Recent price action suggests that the market is placing greater weight on the possibility of US interest rates staying high for longer rather than on gold’s traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment.” (Jinshi Data APP) Asset manager Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild its gold position, which it reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold’s long-term momentum remains strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, “We plan to add back to gold, the question is just timing.” He said he reduced the gold allocation to a neutral level during the January-February period, when the multi-year bull run in gold abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic of a return to a bull market would only be disrupted in a scenario where “governments re-embrace fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to bringing inflation back down,” he added, “but I don’t think we are in that world right now.” Samson also said that continued gold purchases by central banks—a key driver of the previous bull market—will continue to support gold prices. Last Thursday, US Eastern Time, technical strategists at Bank of America warned that the pullback in gold so far this year may still have significant room to run, and its trajectory could resemble the devastating bear markets that followed the sharp rallies in gold in 1980 and 2011. They proposed a phased buying strategy, suggesting full allocation only when gold prices fall to the $3,450–$3,250 range. Bank of America analysts pointed out in a technical research report that gold prices have now accumulated a series of bearish signals, with the risk of a sustained drop increasing: a death cross pattern, elevated net long positions, a bearish topping candlestick, a TD Sequential exhaustion signal, and an RSI reading of 90 at the recent high—a level consistent with the gold price peaks in 1980 and 2011. UBP lowered its year-end gold price target to $4,800 per ounce and, while remaining long-term bullish on gold, is not adding to positions for now. Its current gold allocation is neutral at around 5%, down from an overweight position earlier this year. Paras Gupta, head of discretionary portfolio management for Asia at UBP, said in an interview that the previous overweight position "posed the greatest risk to our portfolios." UBP would like to see the Middle East ceasefire agreement hold and more clarity on inflation and interest rate trends before adding to its positions. Gupta said that for investors currently without gold holdings, a drop below $4,000 per ounce would be an extremely attractive entry point. (Zhitong Finance) Recommended reading:

SMM July 2 News: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated on Wednesday that US inflation upside risks have clearly cooled over the past four weeks, easing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes; he also indicated that no further forward guidance would be released on subsequent interest rate policy, refusing to disclose whether the US Fed needs to consider a rate hike at its next meeting; the US dollar weakened, and precious metals rebounded. As of around 16:09 on July 2, COMEX gold dropped 0.11% to $4,077.9/ounce; SHFE gold main contract rose 1.53% to 890.66 yuan/g; COMEX silver dropped 1.1% to $59.845/ounce; SHFE silver main contract rose 1.91% to 14,650 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 2.95% to 14,551 yuan/kg. In the precious metals stock market, as of the close on July 2, the precious metals sector rose 4.21%, with individual stocks: Zhaojin Gold and Chifeng Gold hit their daily limit up, while Shanjin International, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhongjin Gold, and Western Gold led the gains. News [Warsh: Inflation Eases Over Past Four Weeks, AI Is Reshaping Economy, Forward Guidance Loses Necessity] On July 1, at the ECB's annual central bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh again clearly stated that the US Fed would not provide forward guidance on the future interest rate path , hoping that policymakers can engage in thorough discussions based on the latest data at each meeting, rather than previewing the policy direction to the market in advance. He said that US inflation risks had eased over the past four weeks, and the supply expansion brought by AI could profoundly change how the economy operates, with the US at the center of this transformation, but whether AI ultimately leads to inflation or deflation should be judged by the central bank based on data. Warsh said the US Fed is “charting a new path” and will no longer hint at the direction of interest rates in advance as it did in the past. He said: “We will hold our next meeting in four weeks, and I hope we can have a real family-style debate then.” He reiterated that forward guidance is not the right policy in the current economic situation, and the US Fed will continue to base its decisions on the latest economic data in the future, rather than committing to a policy path in advance. This means that the US Fed will rely more on real-time economic data rather than sending policy signals to the market in advance. Spot Market Silver In the spot market: On July 2, the reference average factory price of SMM 1# silver in the morning was 14,558 yuan/kg, up 3.35% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, overall offers remained firm early in the month, but transaction follow-through was slightly weak, and consumption performance fell short of expectations. As silver prices rebounded slightly, downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensified. In Shanghai, morning offers were mainly at TD+5 to +15 yuan/kg. Some smelters quoted on the high side, but actual buying interest was weak, with most deals clustered around TD+10 yuan/kg. In other regions, low-priced cargoes had basically been cleared, while offers in Shenzhen were mostly around TD+5-10 yuan/kg. Today, the market quoted premiums for the SHFE most-traded contract 2608 at a discount of 30 to 20 yuan/kg. Overall, a slight cooling in rate-hike expectations provided some support for precious metals prices. At the start of the month, the spot direction remained unclear. Maintenance at copper plants last month caused a slight disruption on the supply side, and offers generally maintained a slight premium structure. Views From Various Parties Regarding the outlook for precious metals, some institutions’ views are as follows: On July 1, the World Gold Council released the “2026 Mid-Year Outlook for the Global Gold Market.” Looking ahead to H2, gold’s valuation framework indicated that gold will continue to serve as a barometer of the global macro economy, with three main possible scenarios. From current levels, gold prices were broadly in line with market consensus: the market expected the US Fed to raise rates at least once in 2026, most likely in October; the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank were all set to tighten policy; and US Q2 inflation was expected to peak, near $3.9. If there were no major changes in the above environment, gold prices may trade around $4,100/oz within the year, with a fluctuation range of about ±5. If geopolitical or economic conditions deteriorate, or if interest-rate expectations shift, gold is expected to regain its upward momentum; however, only sufficiently strong signals of a global economic slowdown would be likely to drive a breakout to the upside. On the downside, a stronger US dollar, rate hikes exceeding expectations, and a rebound in market risk appetite were the main headwinds for gold prices; if gold prices remain below $4,000/oz, it may trigger further selling. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall by more than 10% from current levels, it may trigger “buy-the-dip” demand from long-term investors in multiple regions. State Street Investment Management said that, as the opportunity cost of holding gold and heightened volatility weighed on investor sentiment, bullish gold trades had been weak, and spot gold prices repeatedly tested the $4,000/oz support level. State Street believed that, although gold prices may be more volatile than in 2024-2025, the gold bull-cycle still has upside room, and the US Fed’s hawkish policy shift was expected not to change gold’s post-pandemic structural trend. State Street noted, “Since the US-Iran conflict, China’s retail gold imports have surged, and local premiums have risen in tandem, reflecting tightening fundamentals in China’s gold supply-demand balance.”State Street expects that over the next six to nine months gold prices could rise to the $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce range, with strong support in the $3,750 to $4,000 per ounce area. However, compared with the macro environment from January to February, the probability of gold prices reaching $5,500 to $6,250 per ounce is relatively small. (Zhitong Finance) State Street Investment Management strategists noted in a report that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by early 2027, as the gold bull cycle remains persistent. They believe that as U.S. government debt rises, gold's role as a currency hedge is expected to be supported, while actual demand for gold remains strong. Global gold fund holdings (as a share of global mutual fund and exchange-traded fund assets) currently remain below State Street's target allocation of 3% to 10% for most portfolios. Moreover, they added that a hawkish pivot by the Fed should not alter gold’s structural post-pandemic trend. State Street expects base bullion prices to rise to $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce in the next six to nine months. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at Saxo Bank said, "The market has not yet attracted enough buying interest to establish that level as a support level." They also pointed out, "Even though energy prices have pulled back recently, investors still expect the Fed may further tighten monetary policy to combat an inflation rebound, and as a result, gold prices fell 14% in Q2, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013." (Jinshi Data APP) CICC's latest research report pointed out that gold may have already overpriced rate hike expectations. Fed rate hikes are still not the base case, and the gold market may have overly priced in rate hike expectations, leaving room for a pullback this year. CICC's macro team believes that employment and consumption pressures, along with the expanding financing needs of the U.S. AI economy, may make it difficult for the Fed to materially turn hawkish, and monetary policy may be "hawkish in words but dovish in action." Based on the implied interest rate expectations model from gold prices, it is estimated that the current gold price around $4,000 per ounce has fully priced in three to four rate hikes, exceeding the rate hike expectations priced in by the interest rate futures market. Looking ahead, after the decline in oil prices is further reflected in U.S. short-term inflation data, the gold market's pricing of rate hike expectations may be corrected, and futures market short-term funds may have opportunities to cover short positions. (Jinshi Data APP) Li Xunlei, Deputy Director of the China Chief Economist Forum, pointed out that gold's long-term trend exhibits long bear markets and short bull markets. Since 1971, 30 years have been bear markets and 25 years have been bull markets, but each bull market has seen gains of over fivefold. A bull market typically lasts around 10 years. This gold bull run has now lasted nearly 10 years, with prices tripling during that time, so caution is warranted at this stage. (Jin10 Data App) Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said the bank has cut its Q3 gold price forecast by over 20% to $4,300/oz and lowered its Q4 forecast by 17% to $4,800/oz. "Potential investors who would normally provide support are notably absent," he said, pointing to weak demand for exchange-traded funds and reduced buying appetite in some countries. (Jin10 Data App) Macquarie said profit-taking weighed on silver prices last month, and price action is once again driven by macro factors amid rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. Similar to gold, silver prices are expected to move sideways for the rest of the year, then gradually decline into 2027, with inflationary pressures and the likelihood of further US Fed rate hikes limiting upside room. The higher inflation and bond yields, the greater the downward pressure. Silver, in particular, has been more susceptible to a pullback after outperforming gold, driven by bullish sentiment fueled by supply tightens, low inventory, and strong demand. Historically, silver pullbacks tend to be rapid. Macquarie expects silver to trade at $70/oz in Q4 this year and pull back to $65/oz by the end of 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) Recommended reads:

Fri, May 22, 2026 at 9:56 PM GMT+8 JPMorgan has reduced its gold price forecasts for 2026, pointing to softer short-term demand conditions, although the bank continues to hold a bullish longer-term outlook and still expects gold to climb toward $6,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year. The bank lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from a previous estimate of $5,708, citing weaker investor participation and subdued market positioning in the near term. According to JPMorgan, gold is currently trading within a narrow technical range between its 200-day moving average near $4,340 per ounce and its 50-day moving average around $4,730 per ounce, while futures market activity and ETF inflows remain relatively muted. “Gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote, adding that concerns over the possibility of Federal Reserve interest rate increases in response to energy-driven inflation are limiting investor confidence in the short term. Despite the downgrade to its forecasts, JPMorgan stressed that it views the recent weakness as a temporary pause rather than a fundamental change in trend. The bank said its constructive long-term thesis — based on fiscal risks, currency debasement concerns, geopolitical fragmentation and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policymaking — remains intact, but is “on hold until more clarity arrives around a resolution of the Iran conflict.” One of the key developments JPMorgan is monitoring is a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which the bank’s oil analysts expect could occur in June. Analysts believe such a development would ease inflation-related risks and begin reversing recent gains in the U.S. dollar and real bond yields, potentially triggering a recovery in gold prices toward technical resistance levels between $4,900 and $5,100 per ounce. The bank also expects investors who previously reduced gold exposure to gradually return to the market, supporting a rebound in demand during the second half of the year. JPMorgan reduced its forecast for central bank gold purchases in 2026 to 640 tonnes from 800 tonnes previously, after officially reported net buying dropped to just 16 tonnes during the first quarter amid increased selling activity. However, including unreported purchases, total central bank buying still reached 244 tonnes during the quarter, based on estimates from the World Gold Council and Metals Focus. The bank additionally cut its forecast for ETF inflows to around 400 tonnes for the full year from an earlier projection of 580 tonnes, although it noted that global ETF holdings remain up by 108 tonnes since the start of the year. Analysts said the largest risk to their outlook would be a scenario in which strong U.S. labour market conditions and rising inflation force the Federal Reserve into a prolonged cycle of interest rate hikes, potentially leading to sustained outflows from Western gold-backed ETFs. Source： https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/goldman-maintains-bullish-gold-outlook-141040865.html

Spring tides surge, ushering in a new chapter. In Q1, driven by the sustained improvement of the macro economy, China's non-ferrous metals industry, guided by the principle of stability with simultaneous gains in quality and efficiency, delivered an impressive report card of a "good start" — from steady recovery in industrial investment to sustained growth in market demand, from strengthening price resilience to an overall surge in enterprise profitability, and from continuous optimization of industrial structure to accelerating technological innovation. Steady Growth in the Non-ferrous Metals Industry On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Q1 macro economic data. In Q1, China's GDP grew 5.0% YoY, up 0.5 percentage points from Q4 last year, reaching the upper end of the full-year growth target range of 4.5%–5.0%, achieving a solid start for the economy. Among the data, industrial value added of enterprises above designated size grew 6.1% YoY. Among the three major sectors, mining grew 6% YoY; manufacturing grew 6.4% YoY, with high-tech manufacturing up 12.5% YoY; and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 4.3% YoY. Among major industries' value added, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing grew 2.5%. In Q1, China's production of ten major non-ferrous metals totaled approximately 20.53 million mt, up 3.6% YoY, including aluminum production of approximately 11.41 million mt, up 3.1% YoY. The non-ferrous metals industry achieved steady growth. The recently released monthly prosperity index report for the non-ferrous metals industry showed that in March, China's non-ferrous metals industry prosperity index stood at 38, up 2.8 points MoM, displaying a steady upward trend, with the industry overall exhibiting characteristics of stable production, steady investment, and sustained growth in profitability. Capacity utilization side, in Q1, the capacity utilization rate of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing remained flat YoY and was slightly above the national average for industrial enterprises above designated size. The national capacity utilization rate for industrial enterprises above designated size was 73.6%, down 1.3% from Q4 last year and down 0.5% YoY. Among them, the mining industry's capacity utilization rate was 72.1, down 2.5% YoY; the capacity utilization rate of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing was 77.2%, down 0.3% YoY. Notably, investment side, in March, investment in China's non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing turned from a 9.2% YoY decline in the previous two months to a 3.7% YoY increase, shifting from negative to positive and achieving a notable rebound. Market side, as China's macro economy maintained steady progress, the manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory, industrial production grew steadily, and monetary policy remained prudent, providing support for the non-ferrous metals market. Aluminum prices in particular continued to strengthen, supported by costs and demand, with SHFE aluminum futures reaching a high of 25,965 yuan/mt. In addition, gold, cobalt, and lithium prices saw remarkable rebounds. Overall, amid a macro environment of stable supply and growing demand, the non-ferrous metals industry exhibited a steady and positive development trend. Profitability side, driven by the combined effects of high-level price fluctuations in major metal varieties and steady growth in market demand, industry profitability continued the steady growth momentum from the end of last year. In January–February, overall industry profitability improved significantly, with industrial enterprises above designated size achieving revenue of 1,713.17 billion yuan, up 28.3% YoY, and total profits of 123.16 billion yuan, up 133.5% YoY, with profitability steadily strengthening. Steady Growth in Publicly Listed Firms' Performance Driven by demand growth and industrial structure optimization, in Q1, the non-ferrous metals sector on A-shares delivered significant performance growth, with publicly listed firms in the non-ferrous industry generally reporting substantial profit increases. As of now, among non-ferrous metals companies on A-shares that have disclosed Q1 earnings forecasts, over 90% reported positive results, with nearly half posting YoY net profit growth exceeding 100%. Leading enterprises delivered particularly impressive results. Aluminum Corporation of China is expected to achieve Q1 net profit of approximately 5.302–5.585 billion yuan, up 50%–58% YoY, setting a record high for the same period. Yunnan Copper, benefiting from rising copper prices and the recovery of smelting TC, reported a Q1 earnings increase with net profit up approximately 45% YoY. CATL achieved Q1 revenue of 129.131 billion yuan, up 52.45% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 20.738 billion yuan, up 48.52% YoY. Zijin Mining is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 17–20 billion yuan, up 65%–97% YoY, with both volume and price of its two core products — copper and gold — rising, highlighting the advantages of its global resource deployment. CMOC, driven by rising prices of copper, cobalt, rare earths, and other products, is expected to achieve Q1 net profit of 7.5–9 billion yuan, up 90%–128% YoY. Shenhuo Co., benefiting from rising aluminum prices and declining raw material costs, is expected to achieve Q1 net profit of 2.25 billion yuan, up 217.68% YoY. Huayou Cobalt is expected to achieve Q1 net profit of 2.497 billion yuan, up 99.45% YoY, driven by robust demand for new energy battery materials and rising volumes and prices of nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Boosted by international gold prices hitting record highs, gold stocks saw explosive performance, with Western Gold expected to achieve Q1 net profit of 450–560 million yuan, up over 11 times YoY. In Q1, with stable supply and better-than-expected demand, the non-ferrous sector was broadly favored. International gold prices broke through $2,400/oz, the average SHFE copper price exceeded 100,000 yuan/mt, and prices of aluminum, tin, tungsten, rare earths, and other metals rose significantly YoY. The supply-demand pattern continued to improve — globally, new mine capacity was limited and ore grade at aging mines declined, keeping supply tight. Demand side, emerging markets such as AI computing power, NEVs, energy storage, and ultra-high voltage saw robust demand, while traditional infrastructure and real estate demand gradually recovered, driving sustained growth in the non-ferrous metals consumer market. Production cost and efficiency improvement side, enterprises advanced industry chain integration, green smelting for cost reduction, and refined management, significantly enhancing profitability. Notably, in this round of the non-ferrous sector's sharp rise, beyond traditional leading varieties such as copper, aluminum, and gold, minor metals including rare earths, tungsten, and antimony also delivered eye-catching performance. Additionally, the new energy revolution and changes in the geopolitical environment drove significant growth in demand for metals such as lithium and cobalt, boosting demand for strategic materials including non-ferrous metals and steel. Analysts believe that against the backdrop of intensifying global resource competition and the accelerating development of new energy and the digital economy, the non-ferrous metals industry, as a strategic raw material sector, is expected to see sustained and steady improvement in industry prosperity. Steady Breakthroughs in Technological Innovation Technological innovation is the core driving force and key pillar for the sustained and stable development of China's non-ferrous metals industry, and a vital engine for driving the industry's transformation toward high-end, intelligent, and green development. Through continuously deepening scientific research and innovation and persistent, solid efforts, China's non-ferrous metals industry has achieved fruitful results in technological innovation. Recently, a research team at the Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, successfully developed a "super copper foil" that enables smartphones, computers, and EVs to generate less heat, charge faster, and operate more safely during high-current charging. In daily life, electric current generates heat when passing through resistance — the higher the charging power, the hotter electronic devices become. This phenomenon is caused by the inconspicuous copper foil inside electronic devices. This wafer-thin "copper sheet" serves as both a conduit for electric current and a carrier of heat. However, for a long time, copper foil has faced an insurmountable challenge — high strength means poor conductivity; good conductivity means thermal stability cannot keep up. These three properties form an "impossible triangle," where improving one comes at the expense of the others. The "super copper foil" newly developed by the research team at the Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, has cracked this "impossible triangle" — maximizing strength, conductivity, and thermal stability simultaneously. First, strength surged. Ordinary industrial copper foil has a tensile strength of approximately 300–600 MPa, while the newly developed "super copper foil" achieves a tensile strength of 900 MPa, roughly twice as strong as conventional copper foil. Second, conductivity remained intact. Despite the significant increase in strength, the "super copper foil" maintains an electrical conductivity of 90% of high-purity copper. Compared with traditional copper alloys of similar strength, the "super copper foil" offers approximately twice the conductivity, truly achieving both strength and conductivity. Furthermore, the "super copper foil" also excels in thermal stability — after being stored for six months under normal conditions, its performance showed no degradation, making it suitable for long-term use in electronic products, batteries, and other applications. When manufacturing the "super copper foil," the research team added a trace amount of organic additive to the electroplating solution, causing numerous 3nm-sized "micro-locks" to form inside the copper foil. These "micro-locks" act like countless microscopic nails, firmly locking the gaps between copper crystal grains, naturally boosting the foil's strength significantly. These "micro-locks" bond seamlessly with the surrounding copper, so electrons passing through encounter virtually no obstacles, resulting in almost no loss of electrical conductivity. It can be said that copper foil serves as both the "nerves" of electronic devices and the "blood vessels" of the new energy industry. This "super copper foil" is already capable of continuous production under industrial conditions, opening new pathways for upgrading and iterating various devices including smartphones, AI chips, and EVs. The successful breakthrough of this technology holds significant strategic importance for the independent and controllable development of China's electronic information and new energy industries. Additionally, small-scale technological transformations and on-the-job innovations in production workshops also yielded remarkable results, becoming an important lever for quality and efficiency improvement in Q1. Baiyin Group's smelting system focused on maintaining continuous and stable production, rationally allocating raw material structures and dynamically adjusting process workloads in response to changes in raw materials and market conditions, achieving new highs in product quality while maintaining stable output. Dianzhong Non-ferrous Metals Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Copper, focused on comprehensive utilization of resources, successfully converting sulfur slag into a profit-generating "rich ore," forging a path that achieves both green, low-carbon development and economic benefits. The key technology for collaborative disposal and resource recovery of typical solid waste from copper, lead, and zinc, led by Kunming Institute of Metallurgy Research, won the first prize of the Environmental Technology Progress Award from the China Association of Environmental Protection Industry, thanks to its advanced technical capabilities and significant environmental benefits, providing a practical and feasible technical pathway for the industry's green transformation and making the conversion of solid waste into valuable resources a reality. In the production workshop of Luoyang Copper Processing Co., Ltd., the world's widest copper plate cold and hot rolling mill — the 3500mm copper and copper alloy wide-thick plate cold and hot rolling mill — completed its first trial rolling successfully, marking a major breakthrough for China in the field of high-end copper and copper alloy wide-thick plate rolling equipment. Spring heralds a new journey, with steady momentum and rising quality. In Q1, China's non-ferrous metals industry advanced steadily with gains in both volume and efficiency, demonstrating operational resilience; publicly listed firms maintained sound operations with continuously improving profitability, building a solid foundation for development with strong performance; innovative achievements in key material breakthroughs, green low-carbon smelting, and digital-intelligent transformation continued to materialize, injecting strong momentum into industrial upgrading and firmly establishing a high-quality start for the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Standing at a new starting point, the entire industry will build on stability, pursue progress to enhance quality, continue to deepen the industry chain, strengthen the innovation chain, and elevate the value chain. In Q2, the industry will seize the momentum and forge ahead, advancing the non-ferrous metals industry toward high-end, intelligent, and green development with more solid steps, and delivering an even more impressive non-ferrous metals report card for achieving stable growth and promoting transformation throughout the year.

Hong Kong is accelerating its drive to become a global gold trading hub, in a move that supports China’s broader ambition to strengthen its influence over international bullion markets amid a shifting geopolitical landscape and record-high prices.

The precious metals sector in A shares showed strength at the opening, with Hunan Silver rising over 6%, Western Gold up more than 4%, and Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Gold, Xiaocheng Technology, and Zhongjin Gold all increasing by more than 3%.