This week, ferrous metals continued to pull back, with coking coal and coke seeing the most notable correction. In the first half of the week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the implementation measures for capacity replacement in the steel industry, proposing that the capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking should be no less than 1.5:1. The further tightening of capacity replacement requirements had a longer-term impact. Meanwhile, macro markets outside China experienced significant fluctuations, and market expectations for ex-China "interest rate hikes" strengthened. In the second half of the week, data on the five major steel products were released, showing production increased somewhat while inventory continued to decline. Spot market side, traders began to show some flexibility on prices, the spot-futures price spread for hot-rolled coil continued to narrow, some spot-futures arbitrage traders mainly cut losses with shipments, and end-users continued to restock on an as-needed basis...

SMM May 21 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals collectively rose in both domestic and overseas markets. LME tin lead the gains with a surge of 4.92%, SHFE tin rose 3.93%. LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, SHFE lead, and SHFE zinc all rose over 1% — LME copper up 1.69%, LME aluminum up 1.17%, LME zinc up 1.61%, LME nickel up 1.09%, SHFE copper up 1.43%, SHFE lead up 1.06%, SHFE zinc up 1.35%. The remaining metals gained less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 0.07%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel rose 0.51%, iron ore fell 0.56%, and rebar fell 0.09%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both edged up. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.12% and coke rose 0.11%. Overnight, for precious metals, COMEX gold rose 0.78% and COMEX silver rose 1.39%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.88% and SHFE silver rose 2.7%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:42 AM on May 21: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Finance: Securities transaction stamp tax reached 93.5 billion yuan in January-April, up 74.8% YoY] In January-April, national general public budget revenue totaled 8,340.4 billion yuan, up 3.5% YoY. Of this, national tax revenue was 6,809.7 billion yuan, up 3.9% YoY; non-tax revenue was 1,530.7 billion yuan, up 1.6% YoY. By central and local breakdown, central general public budget revenue was 3,547.4 billion yuan, up 4.6% YoY; local general public budget revenue was 4,793 billion yuan, up 2.7% YoY. Stamp tax was 206.3 billion yuan, up 27.8% YoY. Of this, securities transaction stamp tax was 93.5 billion yuan, up 74.8% YoY. [MOFCOM: The Chinese government implements export controls on rare earths and other critical minerals in accordance with laws and regulations, and reviews compliant, civilian-use license applications] The head of the Department of American and Oceanian Affairs of MOFCOM provided interpretation on preliminary trade and economic outcomes. MOFCOM stated that the Chinese and US trade teams had thorough communication on export control issues, and both sides will jointly study and resolve each other's reasonable and legitimate concerns. The Chinese government implements export controls on rare earths and other critical minerals in accordance with laws and regulations, and reviews compliant, civilian-use license applications. China is willing to work with the US, together with DAS solar, to create favorable conditions for promoting mutually beneficial cooperation between enterprises of both countries and safeguarding the security and stability of global industry chain and supply chains. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.13. The US Fed meeting minutes showed that regarding the monetary policy outlook, participants generally believed that persistently elevated inflation levels and uncertainty about the duration and economic impact of Middle East conflicts could require the current policy stance to be maintained for longer than expected. Several participants emphasized that it might be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate once clear signs emerged that the pullback trend in inflation had steadily resumed, or if signs of greater weakness in the labour market appeared. However, most participants noted that if inflation remained persistently above 2%, some tightening measures might be needed. To address this situation, many participants indicated that they would prefer to remove language from the post-meeting statement that implied the Committee's future rate decisions might lean toward easing. Participants noted that monetary policy was not set in stone and that future policy decisions would be determined based on the specific circumstances at each meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) The US Fed meeting minutes showed that regarding monetary policy expectations, the US Fed's head of market operations noted that market-implied expectations still indicated that market participants did not anticipate much change in the federal funds rate target range this year, with options prices implying approximately a 30% probability of a rate hike by Q1 2027. In the Open Market Trading Desk survey, the median of the modal path continued to show two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts over the next year, but respondents now expected the cuts to come later than in the previous survey, with cuts anticipated in Q3 or Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, respectively. (Jin10 Data APP) Market analysts noted that the US Fed's April meeting minutes showed that as the Iran conflict pushed inflation higher, an increasing number of officials raised hawkish concerns. At the prior meeting in March, "some" participants had indicated that the US Fed had ample reason to provide balanced policy guidance—that the next move could be either a rate hike or a rate cut—contrary to the prevailing assumption that rates would eventually be cut. In April, this group expanded to include "many" officials who preferred more neutral language in the policy statement. The April minutes also noted that, overall, officials generally believed that rates would need to remain on hold for longer than they had initially anticipated. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 97.3%, with a 2.7% cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 87.2%, with a 2.4% cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut and a 10.4% cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: Data to be released today include China's April SWIFT yuan share in global payments, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, US April annualized housing starts, US April building permits, US May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), US May S&P Global Services PMI (preliminary), Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), Eurozone March seasonally adjusted current account, Eurozone May Consumer Confidence Index (preliminary), France May Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), Germany May Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), UK May Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), UK May Services PMI (preliminary), UK May CBI Industrial Orders Balance, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. In addition, at 2:00 on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, NVIDIA will report earnings and hold an earnings call after the US stock market close, Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech, and China will open a new round of refined oil price adjustment window. Crude Oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets fell in tandem, with WTI crude dropping 4.87% and Brent crude falling 5.5%, as tensions between the US and Iran temporarily eased. Crude oil futures extended their losses as the market shifted its focus to hopes for an agreement to end the US-Iran conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. BOK Financial analyst Dennis Kissler stated that despite the bullish news of a significant decline in US crude oil inventory last week, which should have supported oil prices, prices continued to slide. "That tells me that most likely some kind of negotiation is going on." "The market is pricing in some kind of a deal." (Jin10 Data APP) The US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US EIA crude oil inventory fell by 7.8 million barrels last week, compared with Bloomberg user expectations of a 6 million-barrel decline, analyst expectations of a 2.8153 million-barrel decrease, and a 4.306 million-barrel decline the previous week. The weekly EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory recorded its largest decline in history. The single-week crude oil inventory decline including SPR was the largest on record. (Wallstreetcn) On May 20, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed that last week, total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves plunged by a record 17.8 million barrels, as oil exports advancing at a historically high pace began to erode the US domestic supply buffer. Of this, the volume drawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) accounted for approximately 9.9 million barrels of the total decline. Meanwhile, inventory at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub declined for the fourth consecutive week, continuing to approach "tank bottoms"; traders continue to view movements at this core storage and transportation hub as the primary potential signal that total US inventory is entering a downward decline cycle. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM May 9 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly decline. SHFE copper rose 0.53%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.16%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. SHFE zinc fell 1.19%. SHFE tin fell 1.13%. SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.37%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.24%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 816.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel fell 1.05%, rebar edged up slightly, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.39%, and coke fell 0.43%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance among LME base metals. LME copper rose 1.59%. LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME lead was flat at $1,977.5/mt. LME zinc fell 0.17%. LME tin fell 1.26%. LME nickel fell 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.27%, posting a weekly gain of 1.71%; COMEX silver rose 0.82%, gaining 5.76% for the week. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.21%, with a weekly gain of 3.24%; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.09%, with SHFE silver gaining 11.4% for the week. As of 8:39 AM on May 9, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chaired State Council Executive Meeting: Advancing Local Government Debt Risk Resolution and Strengthening Full-Chain Management of Mineral Resources] State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting on May 9, studying and implementing the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches on the current economic situation and economic work, as well as at the symposium on strengthening basic research. The meeting noted that efforts should be made to align thinking and actions with the CPC Central Committee's scientific assessment of the situation, further bolster confidence, seize opportunities amid changes, drive development through overcoming challenges, consolidate and expand the momentum of steady and positive economic growth, and strive for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Macro policies should focus on being fully and effectively utilized, maintaining proactive implementation, and continuously improving execution efficiency. Strengthening the domestic economic circulation should seek breakthroughs in coordinated supply-demand alignment and integrated upgrading, implementing and improving measures to expand capacity and enhance quality in the service sector, and strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks . Social welfare efforts should focus more on stabilizing employment and ensuring basic needs, and doing well in education, healthcare, childcare, agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Greater efforts and more concrete measures should be taken to strengthen basic research, placing basic research high on the agenda. In light of the country's urgent needs and long-term demands, the main directions and key areas of focus should be identified, investment should be increased through multiple measures, and efforts should be made to foster a sound research ecosystem. Risks and challenges should be addressed effectively, with continued efforts to defuse risks in areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Safety production responsibilities of all parties should be closely monitored and enforced to resolutely prevent major and serious accidents. ( Xinhua News Agency ) [General Administration of Customs: In the first 4 months, China's goods trade imports and exports grew 14.9%, with electromechanical product exports up 17.6%] According to customs statistics, in the first 4 months of 2026, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 16.23 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this, exports totaled 9.33 trillion yuan, up 11.3%; imports totaled 6.9 trillion yuan, up 20%. In April, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 4.38 trillion yuan, up 14.2%. Of this, exports totaled 2.48 trillion yuan, up 9.8%; imports totaled 1.9 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. [Four departments: Exploring direct connection of nuclear power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources to supply computing facilities, and continuously increasing the share of green electricity in computing facilities] The Plan proposes enhancing the diversified power supply capacity of computing facilities. Based on actual conditions such as the scale of computing facility grid connections, power grid voltage levels, power grid new energy penetration rates, power quality requirements, and computing facility business types, standards for energy supply planning and construction of computing facilities are to be established and improved. The use of nuclear power, hydrogen energy, and other energy sources to supply computing facilities through direct connections is to be explored. Computing facilities are encouraged to deploy grid-forming ESS to enhance power supply stability and active support capability for the power system. [Three departments issue the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents] The Cyberspace Administration of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents. The Implementation Opinions specify that the development of AI agents should adhere to the basic principles of safety and controllability, standardization and orderliness, innovation-driven development, and application-led guidance, and put forward measures in four areas: first, consolidating the development foundation by improving the technology base and establishing standards and protocols; second, safeguarding the security baseline by defining product guidelines, preventing security risks, improving the governance system, and strengthening industry self-discipline; third, strengthening application-led guidance by proposing 19 typical application scenarios in areas such as scientific research, industrial development, consumption stimulation, people's well-being, and social governance. Fourth, building an innovative ecosystem, promoting industrial cooperation, and strengthening application promotion. [ China's April Warehousing Index Remained in Expansion Territory, with the Warehousing Industry Continuing a Stable and Positive Trend ] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Warehousing Index today (May 9). The index continued to stay in expansion territory, with the warehousing industry maintaining a stable and positive trend. The April China Warehousing Index was 51%, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months. In terms of sub-indices, the new orders index, facility utilization rate index, and end-of-period inventory index remained in expansion territory, while the average inventory turnover index maintained a relatively high level, indicating steady growth in warehousing business demand, good cargo turnover efficiency, and smooth supply chain connectivity. By category, the peak production and construction season drove a rebound in warehousing demand for bulk commodities such as chemicals, coal, and machinery equipment, while Labour Day holiday stockpiling boosted notable growth in warehousing demand for consumer goods such as food, home appliances, and agricultural by-products. In terms of market expectations, the April business activity expectations index was 55.1%, remaining at a relatively high level, reflecting enterprises' continued optimism. Overall, the warehousing industry operated steadily in April, market vitality continued to be released, and Q2 got off to a good start. (CCTV) [ Shanghai Shipping Exchange: Geopolitical Situation Stabilizing, Freight Rates Rising on Most Routes ] The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) weekly report stated that the current military conflict in the Middle East continued to maintain a ceasefire, with the geopolitical situation relatively stable, though the future situation still faced significant uncertainty. This week, China's export container shipping market remained stable, with freight rates on most routes edging up, driving the composite index higher. On May 8, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index stood at 1954.21 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index declined for two consecutive weeks, down 0.36% for the week. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that April non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, marking the first consecutive growth in nearly a year and the largest two-month gain since 2024, far exceeding the Bloomberg survey median economist forecast of 65,000. March data was also revised up to 185,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations. (Wallstreetcn) "US Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: An increasing number of sell-side institutions and US Fed watchers are removing or delaying interest rate cut expectations from their outlooks, including several forecasters who made adjustments following the release of the April non-farm payrolls data. Currently, half of the respondents believe there will be no interest rate cut this year (given the inertial nature of such forecasts, this camp is likely to continue growing). In addition, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that all rate options are currently on the table, not just rate cuts. At the end of April, the US Fed kept rates unchanged, with three officials opposing language in the statement that hinted the next move could be a rate cut, arguing that the possibility of a rate hike should be preserved. Goolsbee's remarks reflected a shift among US Fed policymakers — moving away from considering near-term rate cuts, primarily because the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war pushed up inflation. He reiterated that both rate cuts and rate hikes are on the table and expressed anxiety about inflation, noting that price pressures exist beyond the energy shock. (Jin10 Data) As consumers worried about the impact of inflation on personal finances and buying conditions, US consumer confidence fell to a new all-time low in recent weeks. University of Michigan data showed that the preliminary May consumer sentiment index fell from 49.8 in April to 48.2. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, a slight pullback MoM; longer-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years stood at 3.4%. As Americans grew anxious about overall living costs, compounded by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, consumer confidence remained subdued. American Automobile Association (AAA) data showed that the average US gasoline price this week surpassed $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022, having risen more than 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated: "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, and about 30% mentioned tariff issues. Overall, consumers still feel the impact of cost pressure, with the primary driver being surging prices at the pump." The preliminary May current conditions index fell to 47.8, a record low; the expectations index rebounded for the first time since January. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and the buying conditions indicator also fell to a five-month low. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include China April CPI YoY, China April PPI YoY, US April existing home sales annualized, Germany April CPI MoM final, Germany May ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May ZEW economic sentiment index, US April NFIB small business confidence index, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY, Japan March trade balance, France Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France April CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone March industrial output MoM, US April PPI YoY, US April PPI MoM, UK Q1 GDP YoY preliminary, UK March three-month GDP MoM, UK March manufacturing output MoM, Canada March wholesale sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales MoM, US April import price index MoM, US May New York Fed manufacturing index, US April industrial output MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), among others. In addition, other events to watch this week included: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan to meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the Bank of Japan Governor, and the Finance Minister; the Bank of Japan's release of the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee attending a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivering opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; US Fed Governor Barr delivering a speech; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a discussion; and the National Energy Administration releasing national electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month. Crude oil: Last Friday overnight, both oil futures moved sideways, with WTI down 0.14% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 7.12% for the week, while Brent fell 7.32%. Middle East conflicts resurfaced, and market concerns over the fragility of ceasefire agreements persisted. According to CMG reporters on May 8, ship-tracking data showed that as of the morning of May 8 local time, no large vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. This reportedly marked the second consecutive day since May 7 with no large commercial ships passing through the strait. (CCTV) US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that US energy enterprises increased oil and natural gas rig counts for the third consecutive week, marking the first three-week streak of increases since early February. Data showed that for the week ending May 8, the total US oil and natural gas rig count—a leading indicator of future production—increased by 1 to 548, the highest since early April. (Webstock Inc.) According to foreign media reports, sources said that since shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, enterprises such as Saudi Aramco's trading arm (Aramco Trading) and UAE national oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had continued to transport crude oil cargoes through the strait. Although current shipment volumes represented only a fraction of what flowed before Iran closed this oil route nearly 10 weeks ago, the actions of both companies served as a reminder to the market that some supply could still reach global markets. According to sources, Adnoc was among the first companies to attempt shipping crude oil, fuel, and natural gas cargoes out through the strait. The company supplied Upper Zakum crude to clients, a grade typically loaded at Zirku Island, but in this case delivered in Fujairah waters outside the Persian Gulf. According to Vortexa data, at the end of April, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) loaded with Abu Dhabi crude turned off its transponder and sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data showed that as of Thursday, another VLCC, Fujairah Energy, remained anchored in waters near Abu Dhabi, carrying half a cargo of crude obtained from Zirku Island via ship-to-ship transfer. A charter agreement indicated that the vessel had been temporarily chartered by Adnoc, with plans to load crude between May 15 and 17 for delivery to Asia. (Jin10 Data) Citi stated that the current base case scenario projects Brent crude oil prices to average $110 in Q2 2026, then decline to $95 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. Fitch expects Brent crude prices to remain at $100–110 per barrel during the Strait of Hormuz blockade from May to July, before pulling back to $70 per barrel by September. Additionally, JPMorgan analysts said US gasoline prices "could very well" rise to $5 per gallon, as refineries are prioritizing jet fuel production at the expense of other products. The analyst team noted in a Friday report that in Asia, the region currently hardest hit by the energy crisis, the price shock triggered by the Iran war is transmitting significantly faster through refined product markets such as jet fuel and diesel than through the crude oil market. If refinery operations continue to be constrained by limited crude supply, fuel prices could become "the primary transmission channel for demand destruction." "In this scenario, even if refined product crack spreads widen significantly, crude prices could still stabilize around $100 per barrel. At that point, the next phase of the shock would look less like a traditional crude oil price spike and more like a refining and end-user fuel supply crisis." The product most visibly impacted currently is jet fuel, which is prompting refineries to maximize jet fuel output as much as possible, typically at the cost of reduced diesel production. The knock-on effects have also spread to gasoline production. Analysts said: "This perhaps explains why US gasoline prices have already risen to $4.55 per gallon, and why the risk of gasoline prices reaching $5 can no longer be ignored." (Jin10 Data) Recommended Reading:

After the holiday, ferrous metals opened higher, but subsequent trends diverged—steel products and iron ore fluctuated at highs, while coke surged before pulling back. The strong rally during the week was mainly driven by disturbances outside China. During the holiday, the US-Iran standoff escalated with widening negotiation gaps, pushing raw materials to lead the gains in ferrous metals. Combined with capital inflows after the holiday, this provided a clear upward drive for prices. In the latter half of the week, market rumors suggested that Iran and the US had reached a consensus on easing the US naval blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and bears increased their positions in coke. Data on the five major steel products were released, showing weakness in both supply and demand, with inventory not accumulating after the holiday. On the spot market side, traders had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and purchases were made in both futures and spot cargo at low price levels...

This week, ferrous metals moved sideways and upward. During the week, as US-Iran negotiations made no progress and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, combined with declining US crude oil inventories, Brent crude oil surged sharply, driving coking coal higher. Although BHP port spot cargoes were available for purchase, which was bearish for market sentiment, futures had already priced in related expectations earlier, so iron ore pullback was limited and cost support was relatively neutral. The Politburo meeting held mid-week had low direct correlation with ferrous metals, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs during the week. Spot market side, end-users restocked at low prices before the holiday, and as futures rose in the latter half of the week, speculative demand was also released...

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated downward, with raw materials declining significantly more than finished steel. Cost-side logic weakened further during the week. Mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran indicated they had entered the final stage of finalising negotiation details, causing crude oil in the overseas market to plunge and dragging down the coal sector. In the latter half of the week, rumors emerged that negotiations between China Mineral Resources and BHP would be announced next week, with iron ore leading the downward trend. On the finished steel side, inventory of the five major steel products continued to destock, in a structure of both rising supply and demand. Spot market side, futures were weak, end-user purchasing enthusiasm was lukewarm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and some market arbitrageurs between futures and spot began to take profits...

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week was still the weakening of cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed to levy transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump released conciliatory remarks that he was "willing to end military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed." Market expectations for tightening crude oil supply weakened, the energy sector declined and dragged down the coal sector, and the cost logic weakened. During the week, inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at low levels compared to the same period in previous years, and fundamentals provided limited impetus for futures. Spot market side, market enthusiasm for purchasing was lukewarm, with restocking mainly at low prices. Spot prices remained relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened...

This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market reported last week that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, and that Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices transmitted to China, with coking coal and coke leading the ferrous metals higher. Mid-week, the Middle East situation fluctuated, with the U.S. and Iran holding divergent attitudes toward war, and ferrous metals consolidated at highs. The pullback in the second half of the week was mainly driven by weakening cost-side logic. Market rumors suggested that iron ore long-term contract negotiations had been completed, expectations of iron ore supply tightening diminished, and raw materials shifted to a pullback-driven trend. Spot market side, speculative activity and end-user purchase enthusiasm improved in the first half of the week, while the second half continued to be dominated by rigid demand, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat...

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated at highs, with raw material ore and coking products outperforming steel. Against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, ore and coking products held up well, supported by higher shipping costs and transmission from coal and coke as energy substitutes. In the second half of the week, supply and demand data for hot-rolled coil and rebar were released. The increase in rebar inventory slowed markedly; however, hot-rolled coil demand was lower than the same period last year, and the pace of post-holiday recovery was relatively slow, leaving steel as a whole with limited upward momentum, while futures retreated after rapid rise. In the spot market, trading in the Chinese market was average this week.....

This week, ferrous metals rebounded from the bottom. At the start of the week, coking coal and coke led the futures higher, mainly driven by rising crude oil prices in the overseas market, which pushed the energy and chemicals sector stronger accordingly; mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran signaled a more relaxed stance toward war, easing geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell in tandem, weakening the cost-side logic, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs; in the latter half of the week, worsening short-term liquidity issues in BHP's iron ore port inventory triggered stronger iron ore prices in the overseas market, while the Middle East situation remained volatile, reinforcing cost support and pushing ferrous metals higher again. In the spot market, supported by futures, end-user and arbitrage purchase sentiment both improved WoW this week......