[Geopolitical Tensions Combined With Deferred Interest Rate Cut Expectations Leave SHFE Aluminum Under Short-Term Pressure but Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still has upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and is expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China remains in a phase of high inventory coupled with weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum is significantly weaker than that outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices are still expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

On November 25th, the first furnace in the smelting workshop of Guizhou Zhiyuan Metal Technology Co., Ltd.'s recycled aluminum project, with an annual output of 100,000 tons of aluminum rods and 50,000 tons of aluminum profiles, was successfully ignited, marking the start of the final sprint before trial production for this key provincial project. The project, with a total investment of 400 million yuan, includes a smart recycled aluminum production line, supporting workshops for smelting, extrusion, and surface treatment, as well as an environmental protection system, aiming to create a circular economy industrial chain. After the project is put into operation, it will be able to process and recycle over 90% of waste aluminum annually, producing 100,000 tons of aluminum rods and 50,000 tons of aluminum profiles, with an estimated annual output value exceeding 2 billion yuan.

Mingtai Aluminum recently stated at a roadshow that in the field of low-carbon circular economy, the company plans to introduce a laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy precision separation production line. Through technological innovation of "precise component identification and efficient separation of impurities and alloys," the company aims to expand the scope of waste aluminum recycling, achieve high-value utilization of waste aluminum, and promote the upgrading of the recycled aluminum industry. With the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism policy set to be implemented in 2026, the company's recycled aluminum products will enjoy a green and low-carbon premium, further enhancing the company's profit margins.

On November 5, the Sanmenxia Demonstration Zone (High-tech Zone) and the Sanmenxia Xiaohan State-owned Industrial Joint Development Co., Ltd. jointly held a signing ceremony for the integrated manufacturing and intelligent application project of 50,000 tons of recycled aluminum alloy per year. The project has a total investment of 110 million yuan. It involves the reprocessing of materials by recycling waste aluminum products through intelligent sorting technology, optimized smelting processes, and digital whole-process monitoring to produce aluminum alloys for casting, and customizing aluminum alloy die-cast parts for fields such as automobiles and heat transfer printing machines according to demand. The total construction area of the project is 11,614.63 m², including a smelting workshop (Phase I) with a construction area of 5,925.85 m², a die-casting workshop (Phase II) with a construction area of 3,465.84 m², and an office building with a construction area of 2,222.94 m².

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and seven other departments issued the Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Non-ferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026). It mentioned that from 2025 to 2026, the added value of the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to grow by about 5% annually, with economic benefits maintaining a positive trend.

【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】The European Union (EU) is one of the key exporters of scrap metals such as aluminium and copper globally. Amidst the ever-changing global political and economic market, the European market has been slowly inching towards a relatively careful approach towards their exports of scrap metal, which are key materials for the development of local industries, especially towards low carbon emission goals. As the scrap metals were not included in the tariffs outlined in Section 232, they are included under the general tariffs of 15% for EU exports to the US. Under this circumstance, European Aluminium acted as one of the biggest voices of the EU aluminium industries, actively highlighting how the USA’s tariffs make it an unfairly favourable export destination. This might lead into, not only the EU, but the global flow of scrap metal being preferentially exported to the US, leading to a larger shortage of metal scrap when markets are already struggling to fulfill their domestic demand for scrap as a raw material, creating pressure for local businesses and industries to stay afloat.

【SMM Lithium Battery Recycling】Tongren City, Guizhou Province's 17,000-ton Lithium Battery Cathode Waste Processing Project Announced Recently, the Ecological Environment Bureau of Tongren City, Guizhou Province, released a proposed approval announcement for the environmental impact assessment documents of the "Phase III Project of Huicheng Battery New Materials Industrial Park". The advancement of this project is of great significance for the development of Tongren City's new energy industry. It is reported that a company's project involves constructing a production line for the annual processing of 17,000 tons of lithium battery cathode waste and pole piece waste, co-processing crude recycled materials such as MHP and waste aluminum electrolyte to produce high-performance materials for new sodium-ion batteries and lithium iron manganese phosphate (LMFP) cathodes. Simultaneously, it will also construct production lines and ancillary facilities with an annual output of 7,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate, 6,500 tons of battery-grade lithium iron manganese phosphate, 5,500 tons of battery-grade lithium iron phosphate, 1,500 tons of electrowon cobalt, 860 tons of electrowon nickel, 2,700 tons of calcium fluoride, 117,000 tons of Glauber's salt, and 10,000 tons of ammonium sulfate.