US Treasury Secretary Bessent claimed that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could be tapped again to suppress oil prices, but the reality was far more complex than this statement suggested—the reserve level was already close to the statutory minimum, and physical safety constraints left extremely limited room for any further release.Last week, Bessent said that the US had participated in the largest internationally coordinated SPR release operation to date, totaling 400 million barrels, and warned that, if necessary, the US could once again unilaterally release reserves to stabilize oil prices.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,751/mt and dipped to $12,743/mt at the start of the session. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and, near the close, touched a high of $12,940/mt, before finally closing at $12,918.5/mt, up 1.44. Trading volume reached 19,700 lots, and open interest stood at 302,000 lots, down 5,166 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,020 yuan/mt and hit a low of 99,820 yuan/mt at the start of the session. It then fluctuated upward to 100,420 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally closed at 100,190 yuan/mt, up 0.58. Trading volume reached 274,000 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, down 3,315 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead consolidated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead dipped slightly to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, LME lead futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually moving higher to a peak of $1,926/mt, and finally closed at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. At the end of the night session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward, but due to strong bearish momentum, turned to fluctuate downward and closed at the low of 16,405 yuan/mt. It posted a long upper-shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. On the macro front: 1. Trump: Once the Iran war ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a rock. 2. Iran's foreign minister denied recent contact with the US special envoy, saying such reports appeared to be only intended to mislead oil traders. 3. Foreign media: The Saudi crown prince suggested Trump continue striking Iran. 4. US Treasury Secretary: There was no intervention in the oil futures market, and oil prices may be "well below" $80 within months. 5. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Ships from parties not involved in the war have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz. 6. Trading in key London Metal Exchange contracts was once suspended for several hours. 7. Li Chenggang: The Chinese and US teams reached preliminary consensus on certain issues. 8. China and the US agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. 9. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to February, the national economy got off to a strong start and began well Spot fundamentals: Yesterday morning, SHFE lead fell sharply, once dropping below 16,200 yuan/mt in early trading, before recovering part of the losses. Suppliers shipped in line with the market, while some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices. Discounts narrowed significantly from last Friday, especially for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site, with quotations in major producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. In addition, as losses widened at secondary lead smelters, some enterprises suspended shipments or offered quotes at high premiums. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises actively inquired and purchased, with more purchases in major producing areas. However, as market discounts narrowed or turned into premiums, procurement decreased accordingly, and spot market trading was relatively active. Inventory: As of March 16, LME lead inventory increased by 75 mt, or 0.03%, to 284,575 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions increased slightly again. Lead Price Forecast for Today: After plunging sharply yesterday, SHFE lead recovered some of its losses, while discounts for primary lead spot cargo against last Friday narrowed. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted at premiums, with some choosing not to make shipments; secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, prompting downstream buyers to favor purchases of primary lead. Overall, support from the spot market and cautious downstream sentiment are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and sideways movement likely to dominate.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Geopolitical Turmoil Resurfaced, LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,297.5/mt. In early trading, bears increased open interest, dragging the center of LME zinc lower as it fluctuated downward throughout the session, and it hit an intraday low of $3,255/mt during European trading hours. The center then rebounded. Trading was suspended for about three hours due to technical issues during the period. After reopening, LME zinc touched a high of $3,306.5/mt, before the center moved lower again, and it finally closed down at $3,279/mt, down $14.5/mt, a decline of 0.44%. Trading volume increased to 7,502 lots, and open interest rose by 2,947 lots to 218,000 lots.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Bullish and Bearish Factors Coexisted in Domestic and Overseas Markets; Lead Prices Were Expected to Remain Consolidated] US Treasury Secretary Bessent: A 15% global tariff might be implemented this week, pledged to safeguard the Persian Gulf, and hinted that more measures were forthcoming. Recently, lead-acid battery enterprises in the domestic market basically resumed production, and the overall operating rate in March rebounded sharply from February…

During a closed-door meeting with Republican senators, US Treasury Secretary Besant reached a consensus to transfer the investigative authority over Fed Chairman Powell from the Department of Justice to the Senate Banking Committee. According to informed sources, this move aims to persuade Senator Thom Tillis to cease obstructing the nomination of Wash for the position of Fed Chairman.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2603 contract opened at 90,550 yuan/mt, hitting an early high of 90,840 yuan/mt before its center dropped straight to hit bottom at 88,220 yuan/mt. Copper prices then maintained a fluctuating trend, finally closing at 88,830 yuan/mt, down 2.66%. Open interest fell to 3,276 lots, down 205 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume decreased to 4,606 lots, down 1,873 lots. On the macro front, Trump stated the US and Iran must reach an agreement or face severe circumstances, with Netanyahu expressing optimism; US Treasury Secretary offered Senate investigation into Powell as a condition to advance the nomination of a new Fed chair. Meanwhile, as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, bulls took profits and risk-off sentiment intensified, putting copper prices under pressure. On the supply side, due to earlier import arbitrage opportunities, locked SHFE/LME price ratio cargoes continued to arrive, keeping supply loose. Demand side, as the holiday neared, downstream enterprises were generally on break, leading to continuously weakening procurement demand. The most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract closed at 100,380 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2603 contract price of 88,830 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 100,378 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -2 between the SHFE copper 2603 and BC copper contracts. The spread remained inverted and narrowed compared to the previous day.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened overnight at $13,300/mt and touched a high of the same level, initially fluctuating downward before the center of copper prices shifted straight down, then experiencing wide swings and probing as low as $12,787/mt, ultimately closing at $12,855/mt, down 2.9%, with trading volume reaching 22,100 lots and open interest at 322,000 lots, down 3,871 lots from the previous session, overall reflecting long liquidation. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened overnight at 102,030 yuan/mt, initially climbing to 102,350 yuan/mt before fluctuating rangebound, then the center of copper prices pulled back straight to touch a low of 99,400 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 100,030 yuan/mt, down 2.58%, with trading volume reaching 57,700 lots and open interest at 143,000 lots, down 4,515 lots from the previous session, overall reflecting long liquidation.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: AI Concerns Triggered a Broad Decline in Risk Assets, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and in the Doldrums] Overall, the bullish sentiment in the nonferrous metals market cooled down, coupled with high inventory pressure on the fundamentals, aluminum prices were in the doldrums this week. During the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic market was closed, while the LME market continued trading. Be cautious of fluctuations in the macro market and the LME market during the holiday, which may cause volatility in aluminum prices after the holiday.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, touched a high of $1,998.5/mt during the Asian session before trending lower; it initially rose then fell during the European session, plunged to a low of $1,970/mt towards the close, and finally settled at $1,984/mt, down 0.53%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before weakening, touched a low of 16,670 yuan/mt towards the close, and finally settled at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.03%. On the Macro Front: Trump: The US "must" reach a deal with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious". According to AXIOS: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Trump may reach a good deal with Iran. US media: US Treasury Secretary agreed to have the Senate, rather than the Department of Justice, investigate Powell in exchange for the smooth nomination of the new US Fed chair. China's Ministry of Commerce: China and the US maintained close communication at various levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism. Ministry of Education: Vocational education will focus on adding new majors in areas such as the low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence. China's newly installed wind and solar power capacity exceeded 430 million kW in 2025, hitting a record high again. Passenger Car Association: Passenger NEV exports in January surged 103.6% YoY, accounting for 49.6% of passenger car exports. PBOC: On February 13, 2026, it will conduct 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations via fixed amount, interest rate tender, and multiple-price award method, with a maturity of 6 months. : As the Chinese New Year atmosphere intensified, some traders have halted operations for the holiday, while those still at work are waiting for the holiday, and few offers were heard in the market. More downstream enterprises were on holiday, basically halting purchases, with individual companies conducting final warehousing of previously arrived lead ingots. The spot market entered a standstill. Inventory: On February 12, LME lead inventory fell 50 mt to 232,900 mt. As of February 12, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions hit a fresh five-month high again. Today's Lead Price Forecast: This week is the last week before the Chinese New Year. Enterprises across the lead industry chain entered the holiday one after another. In addition, the holiday prompted the return of migrant workers and reduced vehicle transport. Trading in the lead spot market also entered a standstill. More suppliers moved lead ingots from smelter plants to social warehouses, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to rise. Furthermore, lead-acid battery companies concentrated on holidays during the Chinese New Year, while some medium and large primary lead and secondary lead smelters maintained shift work. The supply-demand mismatch of lead ingots, coupled with the factor of the SHFE lead 2602 contract delivery after the holiday, is expected to lead to a further increase in social inventory of lead ingots after the holiday, and lead prices are likely to be in the doldrums. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.