Silver has seen one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent years within just a few weeks. From the high of US$97.30 on March 2, the price fell to US$61.21 by March 23, losing around 37%. For the market, this was an abrupt break from the previous momentum.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

We all know the relationship between Gold and US Dollars in the financial markets. When the USD rises, gold tends to fall and vice versa. It sounds simple to you, right? But understanding why this happens, and how to actually trade it like a pro trader, takes more than knowing that the pattern exists.

[Price Review] This week, silver prices continued to consolidate in a fluctuating range, but the war-driven rise in crude oil prices boosted US dollar demand again, putting pressure on precious metal prices and leaving the market relatively weak. Although during the week silver prices on the SGE tested the support level of 20,000 yuan/kg, and LBMA silver briefly fell below $80/oz, both later rebounded, indicating moderate support on the downside. This round of market movement was mainly affected by fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and the still-uncertain direction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Market participation in the silver market declined, and short-term fluctuations narrowed somewhat. Gold/silver ratio, both gold and silver prices showed a consolidating fluctuating trend this week, and the gold/silver ratio also fluctuated around 60. [Key Data] Bullish: US February seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls: -9.2, below expectations and the previous reading US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: -1.678 million, below expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US January retail sales MoM: -0.2%, above expectations and below the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: 382.4, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: The US Fed will announce its March interest rate decision and economic outlook, including the dot plot. The market generally expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and the probability of an interest rate cut has fallen to near zero. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the rate decision to elaborate on the policy stance. US-Iran situation: Since the large-scale military action launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict has lasted for more than two weeks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the highest level of combat readiness, and the Foreign Ministry explicitly ruled out the possibility of opening negotiations. The transmission effect through the energy channel (inflation) far exceeded that through other channels. Inflation concerns instead weighed on expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and the high-interest-rate environment pressured non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend amid the contest between macro disturbances and fundamentals. The continuing impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the short term has gradually been transmitted, while renewed strength in demand for the US dollar and US Treasuries, together with cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, will keep precious metal prices under pressure in the short term.

On Monday Eastern Time, Bank of America issued a report warning that central banks around the world have been selling US Treasuries since March this year, indicating that they are reducing their investments in US dollar assets and seeking investments in other assets. Bank of America warned that this selling trend is unusual amid the current weakness of the US dollar. They also expressed concerns about the future demand for US Treasuries from overseas central banks. "Unusual" Selling On Monday Eastern Time, a team led by Meghan Swiber, a strategist at Bank of America, released a report titled "Cracks Appear in Overseas Demand for US Treasuries." Data in the report showed that, in the week ending June 11, global central banks and other official entities reduced their average holdings of US Treasuries at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York by $17 billion, with a cumulative reduction of $48 billion since the end of March. In addition, foreign holdings of the US Fed's reverse repo facility have decreased by about $15 billion since the end of March. Analysts wrote in the report that this selling behavior is "unusual" because central banks typically purchase US Treasuries when the US dollar is weak, but their actions this year have diverged from this pattern amid the dollar's weakness. Prospects for US Treasury Demand Are Concerning In recent months, international market interest in US Treasuries has attracted increasing attention. Since US President Trump took office, his chaotic trade and fiscal policies have disrupted financial markets, leading overseas buyers to tend to avoid US assets—the so-called "sell America" trade. Year-to-date, the US dollar index has fallen by 9.48%, reaching a low point over the past three years, partly due to concerns that tariffs will affect the US economic outlook. "This capital flow may reflect a shift in the official sector's holdings from the US dollar to diversification," the strategists wrote, adding that they "remain concerned about the prospects for foreign demand for US Treasuries." Overseas investors have been a significant force in purchasing US Treasuries. In fact, according to the US Fed's capital flow data, in Q1 this year, almost all of the demand for US Treasuries in the market came from broker-dealers and foreign investors. Swiber wrote that this highlights "a concerning picture." She said, "The future trajectory of overseas demand is concerning, especially considering that a growing number of global investors wish to reduce their US asset holdings or increase their hedging ratios." The strategists also pointed out that foreign investors' participation in recent 2-year and 20-year Treasury auctions has "continued to weaken."

Affected by the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the COMEX gold price continued to break through upwards, and the secondary market prices of gold-related ETFs also rose for consecutive days. According to this year's data, the year-to-date gains of all gold-related ETFs in the entire market were above 27.9%. Among them, the six ETFs tracking the SSH Gold Stock Index showed strong growth, with year-to-date gains all above 41%. During this period, the scale of gold-related ETFs in the entire market gradually climbed, increasing from 72.608 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 163.120 billion yuan, representing a growth of 124.66%. Several fund companies believe that due to uncertainties in tariffs and geopolitics, risk-averse capital may flow into gold. Coupled with the impaired credit of the US dollar and US Treasuries, as well as the continuation of central bank gold purchases and the major cycle of interest rate cuts by the US Fed, the medium and long-term allocation value of gold continues to be favored. Gold ETFs Continue to be "Favored" with Market Size Exceeding 160 Billion Yuan On June 16, affected by the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, COMEX gold broke above 3450, and gold and gold stock indices continued to rise, with related ETFs once again gaining market attention. Data shows that since June 10, multiple ETFs tracking the SSH Gold Stock Index have risen by more than 7%, while several other gold ETFs and Shanghai Gold ETFs have risen by more than 2%. Looking at earlier data, as of June 13, the year-to-date gains of all gold-related ETFs in the entire market were above 27.9%. Among them, the six ETFs tracking the SSH Gold Stock Index showed strong growth. The Yongying CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF achieved a year-to-date gain of 43.46%, while the ChinaAMC CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, ICBC CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, Guotai CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, Hua'an CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF, and Ping An CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF also rose by 43.27%, 42.79%, 41.79%, 41.79%, and 41.31%, respectively. Some ETF shares that experienced redemptions during the earlier period of gold price fluctuations and adjustments have also shown signs of "recovery". Since the Israel-Iran conflict, half of the gold-related ETF shares in the entire market have increased. Since the beginning of this year, the total shares of gold ETFs in the entire market have increased by 10.538 billion, and the scale has increased by 90.512 billion yuan, reaching a latest market size of 163.120 billion yuan, representing a growth of 124.66%. Among these, there are products whose scales have doubled. For example, the scale of the Yongying CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF increased from 1.651 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 4.755 billion yuan now, nearly tripling; the E Fund Gold ETF increased by 13.240 billion yuan from 13.248 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 26.488 billion yuan; the Guotai Gold ETF increased by 11.399 billion yuan from 7.142 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 18.541 billion yuan. During the same period, Bosera Gold ETF also increased from 15.004 billion yuan to 29.26 billion yuan. Products such as Huaxia Gold ETF, ICBC Gold ETF, Fullgoal Shanghai Gold ETF, and CCB Principal Shanghai Gold ETF have all shown multi-fold growth in scale since the beginning of this year. The momentum to increase gold allocation remains. Regarding the future allocation value of gold-related assets, multiple fund companies believe that under the current circumstances, market participants are more motivated to continuously increase their gold allocation. Data shows that central banks are continuing to increase their gold holdings. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) announced the official reserve asset data for May. As of the end of May 2025, China's gold reserves stood at 73.83 million ounces, up 60,000 ounces MoM, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth. "The potential geopolitical conflict risks in Iran and other countries, along with the escalation of related conflicts, may catalyze global attention to safe-haven assets, making the upward logic of gold prices more robust," pointed out Liu Tingyu, the fund manager of Yongying Gold Stock ETF. Hua'an Fund expressed that, against the backdrop of the U.S. debt crisis and the erosion of the U.S. dollar's credit, global central banks may continue to purchase gold and diversify their foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and geopolitics, safe-haven funds may flow into gold. Coupled with the erosion of the U.S. dollar's and U.S. debt's credit, as well as the continuation of central bank gold purchases and the broader cycle of the US Fed's interest rate cuts, the company continues to be optimistic about the medium and long-term allocation value of gold. Regarding tariffs, Liu Tingyu believes that the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals' extension of the deadline for the Trump administration's tariff enforcement issues implies that its tariff policies can still be implemented normally. Under this assumption, the contradictions within the Trump administration in the U.S. will significantly ease, and it is expected that Trump will have sufficient room to act hawkish in the coming period, further reducing the suppressive factors on gold. Additionally, gold is positively correlated with inflation in the long term, and the significant rise in oil prices will also affect gold prices through inflation. "Finally, we are more concerned about the main logic of gold—the weakening trend of the credit of the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt. The U.S. fiscal deficit in May was $316 billion, with the annual deficit up 14% YoY, further plunging into deficit. This year, the market's confidence in U.S. fiscal discipline has continued to wane, and the 'America COMPETES Act' may exacerbate the upward trend of the deficit. The avoidance of extreme risks in U.S. debt may become the main driving force for gold prices," Liu Tingyu said. Looking ahead, he believes that as the uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and the rise in the deficit rate further erode the credit of the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt, the global trend of "de-dollarization" will intensify, and market participants will be more motivated to continuously increase their allocation of gold assets. It is worth mentioning that with the upward shift in the gold price center and the continuous expansion of gold mining companies' production, the performance of gold stocks is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Gold jewelers are also experiencing a turning point in performance and a trend toward product high-endization, which similarly offers good growth potential.

As international gold prices hit a record high close last Friday, market participants seem to have drawn a clear line in their choices among safe-haven assets amid the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict: gold is "shining brightly," while the US dollar and US Treasuries are "losing their luster"...

Macro side, US employment growth in May slightly exceeded expectations, but the pace of growth slowed down. Coupled with core CPI and PPI data both falling short of expectations, this strengthened market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut within the year. The US dollar index continued to weaken, providing support for copper prices. However, the Trump administration's escalation of tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, as well as potential policy risks related to additional tariffs on copper, still weighed on market risk appetite, limiting the upside room for copper prices. Meanwhile, the economic and trade consultations between China and the US held in London sent signals of easing trade relations, and the US was reportedly considering lifting some restrictions on technology and energy exports in exchange for policy adjustments by China on rare earth exports, which boosted market confidence to some extent. The China-US talks are still ongoing, and no official announcement has been made yet, keeping the market in a cautious wait-and-see mood. This week, copper prices jumped initially and then pulled back, with LME copper trading around $9,650-9,750/mt and SHFE copper trading around 78,000-79,000 yuan/mt. On the fundamental side, the copper concentrates index continued to decline this week, with initial counteroffers from Chinese smelters in the mid-year negotiations remaining at a high single-digit level. Production cuts and shutdowns at overseas smelters persisted. For copper cathode, spot premiums both domestically and internationally fell sharply this week, with weak spot transactions. The backwardation structure of SHFE copper widened again, and downstream consumption sentiment was poor. Overall, as consumption entered the off-season, spot premiums in the copper cathode market came under pressure. Looking ahead to next week, with the US Fed's interest rate-setting meeting approaching, it is expected that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged in June. However, due to the impending maturity of US Treasuries and the recent poor performance of the Treasury auction market, which has led to significant volatility in US Treasuries, the US dollar is expected to remain at a low level. As the situation between China and the US gradually eases, market risk aversion has declined somewhat, which is expected to provide support for copper prices. It is expected that next week, LME copper will fluctuate rangebound within $9,600-9,800/mt, and SHFE copper will fluctuate within 77,500-79,500 yuan/mt. On the spot front, next week is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2506 contract. After the backwardation structure of SHFE copper widened before delivery, the premium against the SHFE copper 2507 contract has surged. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2507 contract are expected to range from a premium of 70-250 yuan/mt.

The US job market and inflation have both cooled down. In the US, initial jobless claims last week were higher than expected, while continuing claims surged to the highest level since the end of 2021. The US May PPI rose 0.1% MoM, a mild increase that fell short of expectations, adding new evidence of "further slowdown in inflation". Traders have once again fully priced in expectations for two US Fed interest rate cuts this year, with the first cut potentially occurring in September. Following the data release, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell sharply, with the US dollar touching a three-year low, spot gold rising, and US stock futures paring losses. Market attention will now turn to the $22 billion auction of 30-year US Treasuries to observe whether investors will shy away from such long-term bonds amid a backdrop of expanding fiscal deficits. Below are the trends of core assets: The three major US stock indices fell slightly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.36%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq down 0.2%. European stocks rebounded slightly in tandem with US stocks. German stocks are now down about 0.8%, after earlier falling more than 1.3%. South Korean stocks have risen for seven consecutive sessions. Israel's TA-35 index once fell about 1.7%, marking its biggest drop in two months. The US dollar index once fell more than 1%, the euro rose more than 1.2%, the British pound rose about 0.5%, and the yen appreciated about 1%. US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year and 10-year yields once falling more than 8 basis points. Spot gold extended gains to more than 1%, while spot silver nearly erased earlier losses of more than 1.7%. Both US crude and Brent crude fell more than 1.6%. US inflation remained mild in May, indicating that current tariffs have not significantly pushed up consumer prices. The market generally expects the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week, waiting to observe the impact of Trump's policies on the economy. In the stock market, after the release of PPI and employment data, US stock futures pared losses in pre-market trading. At the start of US trading, the three major indices fell slightly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.36%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq down 0.2%. After the S&P 500 rebounded more than 20% from its April low, trading activity in the stock market began to show signs of fatigue. Most Chinese concept stocks fell, with Bilibili down about 1%. Most tech stocks also fell, with Tesla down about 1%. CureVac rose about 35% after reports that BioNTech would acquire the biotech company for $1.25 billion to boost its cancer business. Oracle's shares rose 8.2% to their highest level since January 22. Boeing's shares fell by approximately 5% following the first air crash involving a Boeing 787 aircraft. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fell below 98, dropping more than 1% to a three-year low after the PPI release, before narrowing its losses to less than 0.8%. Following the PPI data, the euro surged more than 1.2% at one point and is now up over 0.8%. The UK economy experienced its most severe contraction in 18 months, with expectations for an interest rate cut soaring. The British pound fell by approximately 0.2% at one point. After the PPI data release, it rose more than 0.5% at one point and is now up about 0.4%. In the bond market, US Treasury yields plummeted significantly. After the PPI data release, yields on both 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries fell more than 8 basis points at one point. In the commodities market, spot gold surged more than 1.1% after the PPI data release, before narrowing its gains to less than 0.9%. Spot silver turned positive, having previously fallen approximately 1.7%, and is now down about 0.2%. Both WTI and Brent crude are now down more than 1.5%. Catalyzed by news of US-Iran tensions, oil prices surged 5% on Wednesday, only to pull back on Thursday. According to Global Times , Iran has threatened to attack US military bases, and the US expects Iran to retaliate against certain US military bases in Iraq. Oman has confirmed that the sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks will be held on Sunday.

At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. People will closely monitor these data to see if US President Trump's tariffs are beginning to impact consumer prices. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has warned that April's inflation report may represent the last calm before tariffs lead to a rise in inflation. The median forecast from economists indicates that the overall US CPI for May is expected to maintain a MoM growth rate of 0.2%, with the YoY growth rate rising from the four-year low of 2.3% touched last month to 2.5%. For the core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, the MoM growth rate is expected to increase from 0.2% in April to 0.3%, while the YoY growth rate is projected to rise from 2.8% to 2.9%, reversing the downward trend seen so far this year. Forecasters suggest that core inflation in the US may rebound in May, reflecting the mild impact of tariffs being passed on to major imported goods, while prices for some services, such as airfares, are expected to narrow their gains or fall outright. Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted in a report: "Only a handful of goods prices are likely to rise in May due to new tariffs—June will be different—while some non-essential service providers may cut or maintain low prices to support demand." Rising Goods Inflation, Weakening Service Prices Economists have been closely watching how tariff costs will be passed on to consumers. As of April, the CPI report showed minimal impact, as firms absorbed some of the costs and relied on inventories purchased before the tax increases. However, companies, including Walmart, have indicated they will begin raising prices for some goods. Bank of America economists Stephen Juneau and Jeseo Park stated in a report that the impact of tariffs on May's data should be broader than in April. The most obvious sign of tariff-driven price increases in April was the 8.8% MoM surge in audio equipment prices. Other notable categories include heavily taxed goods such as clothing, new cars, and household appliances. Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Nicole Cervi pointed out: "Inventory accumulation ahead of the tax increases and expectations of potential reductions in the current tariff scale have so far curbed cost increases. However, as high tariffs persist, it may become more challenging to shield consumers from cost shocks." On the other hand, forecasters have pointed out that disinflation in the services category may have curbed the overall CPI increase . Andrew Schneider of BNP Paribas said that airfare and hotel prices have remained sluggish in recent months, and deflation is expected in both categories in May. In his report, he noted that the decline in foreign tourists may have contributed to the price weakness. Anna Wong, a strategist at Bloomberg Economics, believes that the price drops in some service categories reflect consumers cutting back on non-essential spending. She also expects airfares to decline. "Both consumers and government departments are cutting back on travel spending this year, and airfares continued to deflate in May," Wong wrote in her report. How many more months will the US Fed have to wait? Economists and US Fed officials have differing views on when the impact of tariffs on inflation will fully materialize. Goldman Sachs expects tariffs to push up commodity prices and overall inflation in the coming months, but this increase will be one-off, after which prices will return to normal. In the May CPI data, the institution expects the impact to be relatively small, with core inflation projected to rise 0.05% to 0.25% MoM. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects core inflation to reach 3.5%, up from 2.8% in April, but with easing pressures in the labour market, housing, and automotive sectors. The institution also expects hotel and airfare prices to remain flat in the short term, with most inflation coming from goods rather than services. Other perspectives suggest that companies may not raise prices until surplus inventories are digested. Due to the inventory surplus before April, it may take several more months to digest inventories. According to information as of May 23, the US Fed's latest Beige Book shows that companies planning to pass on tariff-related costs expect to achieve this goal within three months . Debates on the inflation outlook have also taken place within the US Fed. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had a useful debate on whether to view price-related increases through the lens of tariffs, and he found the argument against ignoring the impact of tariffs on inflation more compelling. Several others, including US Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, seem to agree with this view. Kugler noted that the impact of tariffs on prices may be more persistent. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has said he is particularly concerned about inflation and the public's expectations for future price increases, believing that "it will take three to six months to see how things unfold."Goolsbee, however, expressed some "trepidation" about the claim that tariffs would have a temporary impact on inflation. On the other side of the argument was Fed Governor Waller, who believed that tariffs would lead to a one-time increase in prices and stated that it was standard practice for central banks to overlook one-time price hikes. Fed Chairman Powell and his colleagues have indicated that there is time to assess the impact of trade policies on the economy, inflation, and the job market. The market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. The recent strong non-farm payrolls report has already led traders to lower their expectations for a Fed interest rate cut. The money market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 45 basis points before the end of the year, suggesting that only one rate cut by the Fed this year is fully priced in, with an 80% probability of a second cut. The latest Reuters Fed survey showed that 59 out of 105 analysts believe the Fed will resume interest rate cuts next quarter, possibly in September, and 60% of analysts think the Fed will cut interest rates at least twice, but this is only a slim majority. In the absence of guidance from the Fed, analysts' expectations are also widely dispersed. Fed officials have generally urged a wait-and-see approach, avoiding providing any specific guidance on the path of interest rate cuts. San Francisco Fed President Daly has previously stated that two rate cuts this year still seem reasonable, while Bostic still expects only one rate cut. However, both have warned that this largely depends on how the economy develops. Market Reaction A few hours after the release of the CPI data, the US Treasury will hold two crucial Treasury auctions. It will sell $39 billion in 10-year Treasury notes in the early hours of Thursday and $22 billion in 30-year Treasury notes in the early hours of Friday. These results could have a significant impact on the direction of the economy, the Fed's response, and its interest rate policy stance. Coupled with the comprehensive tax and spending bill currently under consideration in Congress, volatility in the US Treasury market is set to intensify. This week's Treasury auction results will be closely watched, although economists and investors generally believe there will be no major surprises. Chip Hughey, head of fixed income at Truist Advisory Services, said, "If you look at the current yield levels relative to global peers, US Treasuries still offer a relatively attractive advantage... I expect demand to be quite strong, especially for the 10-year note auction." The US dollar index, which typically fluctuates with US Treasury yields, rebounded in the first half of May before pulling back to consolidate above the three-year low near the 98 mark. The counter-trend rebound has alleviated the oversold condition of the US dollar index's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) , potentially laying the groundwork for the next round of declines, especially if inflation falls short of expectations. Technically speaking, the lows around 98 represent the most significant support level to watch , while the nearest clear overhead resistance comes from the downtrend line near 99.50 . Even if a hotter-than-expected inflation report triggers a rebound in the US dollar index, bears may look to sell into strength, joining the ongoing downtrend at more favorable prices. For gold, the current technical setup favors the bulls. If gold prices strengthen further and break through the immediate resistance level of $3,352-3,353 , it will reaffirm the bullish outlook and advance towards the intermediate resistance level of $3,377-3,378, thereby challenging the round-number resistance at $3,400. On the other hand, a pullback in gold below the $3,323-3,322 area may continue to attract some buyers and find decent support around $3,300 . If subsequent selling intensifies, gold prices may subsequently break below the $3,288-3,287 area, shifting market bias in favor of the bears and dragging prices down to the monthly swing low near $3,245, with this corrective decline potentially extending even further to near $3,200. In the current environment, tariff headlines and any potential trade agreements (especially between the US and China) may have a greater impact on the market than this month's inflation report , making it crucial to monitor developments in these areas as well.