Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987.5/mt, hovering around the daily moving average during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,994.5/mt before weakening, touching a low of $1,972/mt before the close, and finally closed at $1,979/mt after a slight rebound, down $16.5/mt, a decrease of 0.83%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,800 yuan/mt, fell to a low of 16,740 yuan/mt after opening, then rebounded to a high of 16,820 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,800 yuan/mt after brief consolidation, forming a doji, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, an increase of 0.27%. Data released by the State Administration for Market Regulation showed that 25.745 million new business entities were established nationwide in 2025, with rapid growth in enterprises related to emerging industries and future industries, indicating strong innovation momentum. Among them, frontier fields such as humanoid robots, civil aviation, and generative artificial intelligence led the gains. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased less than expected, indicating that layoffs remained at a low level. The third round of indirect talks between the US and Iran concluded, with the Iranian foreign minister stating that the two sides were close to reaching a consensus in some areas, and technical negotiations would be held in Vienna next Monday. The foreign minister of Oman, the mediating party, described the talks as having made significant progress. Media reports indicated that differences between the two sides remained significant, with the US insisting that Iran completely dismantle its nuclear facilities and transfer all enriched uranium out of the country; Iran proposed stopping nuclear activities for a limited number of years, after which enrichment activities would resume within a regulated regional framework. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong and Honglu lead was quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead continued to hold up well. Some suppliers completed month-end inventory clearance, with individual large discount quotations narrowing, while other suppliers followed the market in shipments, mainly with cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters' production sites. Few secondary lead smelters had resumed production, with some having delayed plans; secondary refined lead quotations were scarce, and prices were firm, with mainstream producing areas offering at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises resumed work gradually, but most still had certain inventory, resulting in low enthusiasm; spot order market transactions were sluggish. Inventory: On February 26, LME lead inventory was 286,300 mt, flat from the previous trading day. As of February 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM continued to accumulate. Today's lead price forecast: This week, spot order procurement demand from downstream enterprises remained primarily for small, rigid needs. Many downstream enterprises were still consuming lead ingots stockpiled before the holiday after resuming work, and post-holiday lead ingot consumption appeared slightly weak. On the refined lead supply side, large-scale primary lead smelters in Henan maintained stable supply during the holiday. Smelter inventories accumulated significantly after the holiday, while the pace of production resumptions for secondary lead smelting enterprises that halted during the Chinese New Year was noticeably delayed compared to previous years. Under the current scrap battery and lead price conditions, secondary lead enterprises remained in a loss-making state upon resuming work, and concentrated production resumptions are expected to be delayed until March. This week, the supply and demand in the spot refined lead market have not fully recovered. Lead prices have moderate support at lower levels but struggle to rise due to pressure from increasing domestic inventory. In the short term, lead prices are expected to continue moving sideways.

SMM June 6 news: Metal market: Domestic base metals generally rose overnight, with SHFE tin up 1.66%, SHFE copper up 0.58%, SHFE nickel up 0.28%, SHFE lead down 0.36%, SHFE aluminum up 0.1%, and SHFE zinc down 0.27%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.17%. Ferrous metals series all rose overnight, with iron ore up 1%, stainless steel slightly up, rebar up 1.15%, HRC up 1.01%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal surged 4.64% while coke gained 1.64%. LME base metals showed mixed performance overnight, with LME copper up 0.89%, LME aluminum down 0.32%, LME lead down 0.48%, LME zinc down 0.5%, LME tin up 1.07%, and LME nickel up 0.32%. Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.68% while COMEX silver rose 3.31%. SHFE gold dropped 0.46% and SHFE silver climbed 2.89%. As of 8:25 am June 6, overnight closing quotes 》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard Macro front 》Xi Jinping held phone talks with US President Trump Domestic news: [Commerce Ministry responds to auto industry's cut-throat competition: Strengthens comprehensive rectification and compliance guidance] A reporter raised questions about the automotive industry. Commerce Ministry spokesperson Yongqian He stated that the auto sector is a pillar and strategic industry of the national economy, playing a vital role in stabilizing growth and expanding consumption. In recent years, the Ministry has implemented car trade-in policies and auto circulation reform pilots to continuously unleash consumption potential and cultivate new growth points. Recently, relevant departments organized symposiums with industry associations, research institutions and enterprises to gather opinions for improving auto circulation. Next, the Ministry will collaborate with other departments to enhance market tracking, research and policy guidance, remove circulation bottlenecks, and better meet diverse consumer needs. Regarding current cut-throat competition in the industry, the Ministry will coordinate with relevant authorities to strengthen comprehensive governance and compliance guidance, maintain fair competition, and promote healthy industry development. 》Click for details [Commerce Ministry responds to US steel/aluminum tariff hike: Urges US to stop overstretching national security concept] This afternoon, the Commerce Ministry held a regular press conference where the spokesperson introduced recent key work in commerce. A reporter asked, "The US has increased tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, and the policy officially took effect on the 4th. What comments does the Ministry of Commerce have on this?" Spokesperson He Yongqian of the Ministry of Commerce stated that China has repeatedly emphasized that the Section 232 tariffs are a typical act of unilateralism and protectionism, which have long been ruled by the WTO's dispute settlement mechanism as violating WTO rules. This time, the US has once again raised tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivative products, which not only harms others and itself, does not help maintain industrial security, but will also seriously disrupt the stability of the global industry chain and supply chain. The US approach has been opposed by multiple countries. China urges the US to respect economic laws, abandon the zero-sum mentality, stop overgeneralizing and abusing the concept of national security, work with all parties to maintain a rules-based multilateral trading system, resolve respective concerns through equal dialogue, and jointly maintain the stability of the global industry chain and supply chain. 》Click to view details [Ministry of Commerce: China will approve rare earth export license applications that meet regulations] The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference. A media outlet asked that some foreign enterprises believe that the process for obtaining rare earth export licenses in China is slow, and their enterprises may face production shutdowns. How does China respond to this? In response, Spokesperson He Yongqian of the Ministry of Commerce stated that rare earths and related items have obvious dual-use attributes for both military and civilian purposes, and implementing export controls on them is an international common practice. The Chinese government reviews export license applications for dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations. For applications that meet the regulations, China will approve them to promote and facilitate compliant trade. 》Click to view details [Breaking with convention! The central bank will conduct a 1 trillion yuan outright reverse repo operation. What signals does the first "advance notice" release?] The central bank announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on June 6, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, and multiple-price bidding methods, with a term of 3 months (91 days). 》Click to view details [Latest statement from the CSRC! Relating to strengthening the protection of small and medium-sized investors and supporting the listing of high-quality unprofitable technology enterprises] ① Cheng Hehong, the chief lawyer of the CSRC, stated at the 2025 Tianjin Wudadao Financial Forum that the CSRC will expedite the research and formulation of "Several Opinions on Further Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium-Sized Investors in the Capital Market" to enhance the level of investor protection; ② Cheng Hehong also proposed that science and technology innovation bonds of high-quality enterprises should be included in benchmark market-making varieties, and support the issuance of REITs for new-type infrastructure projects such as artificial intelligence and data centers. 》Click to view details US dollar: The US dollar index fell by 0.04% overnight, closing at 98.75. According to a report by Xinhua News Agency in Beijing on June 5, on the evening of June 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a scheduled phone call with US President Donald Trump. The two heads of state agreed that their respective teams should continue to implement the Geneva consensus and hold a new round of talks as soon as possible. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to its highest level in seven months last week, suggesting that the labour market is softening amid intensifying economic headwinds caused by tariffs. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said that the US non-farm payrolls report for May, due to be released on Friday, could influence the US Fed's interest rate policy, while market focus will also be on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. (Webstock Inc.) In other currency news: The Bank of England announced on Thursday that it had allocated a record 68.106 billion pounds (approximately $92.39 billion) in seven-day funds through its weekly short-term repo operations. This figure surpassed the previous record of 64 billion pounds set in April. The Bank of England provides reserves to banks through short-term repo operations while gradually selling government bonds purchased under its quantitative easing programme. (Huitong Finance) In terms of data: Today, data to be released includes Germany's seasonally adjusted monthly industrial output rate for April, Germany's working-day adjusted annual industrial output rate for April, Germany's seasonally adjusted monthly export rate for April, France's trade balance for April, the final seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP rate for the eurozone in Q1, the final seasonally adjusted annual GDP rate for the eurozone in Q1, the monthly retail sales rate for the eurozone in April, the annual retail sales rate for the eurozone in April, the monthly leading indicator rate for Canada in May, the seasonally adjusted change in US non-farm payrolls for May, the annual average hourly wage rate for the US in May, the change in US private non-farm payrolls for May, the US labour force participation rate for May, the seasonally adjusted change in US manufacturing employment for May, the US unemployment rate for May, the change in Canadian employment for May, the Canadian unemployment rate for May, and other data. In addition, it is worth noting that Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler will speak at the Economic Club of New York, and Patrick Harker, the 2026 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, will speak about the economic outlook. In terms of crude oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.64% and Brent up 0.66%. Improved trade relations are expected to boost oil demand, supporting oil prices. On Wednesday, data showed that US gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected, reflecting weak demand in the world's largest economy, and oil prices fell by 1%. On Thursday, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, cut the price of its crude oil for Asian buyers in July to its lowest level in nearly two months, curbing the rise in crude oil prices. (Webstock Inc.)

[SMM Commentary: Precious Metal Futures and Stocks Performed "Remarkably" This Week, While Spot Silver Trading Remained Sluggish. How Do Major Institutions View the Market Outlook?] On May 23, amid intensifying market concerns over the deterioration of the US fiscal outlook, a weaker US dollar, and ongoing unrest in the Middle East, market risk-averse sentiment surged, driving precious metal futures and stocks to rise in tandem. In the futures market: As of 16:15 on May 23, COMEX gold rose by 1.01%, closing at $3,328.4 per ounce; COMEX silver rose by 0.7%, closing at $33.45 per ounce; SHFE gold rose by 0.1%, while SHFE silver fell by 0.37%, and silver T+D fell by 0.39%. In the stock market: On the 23rd, as the broader market experienced a nearly 1% decline, the precious metals sector bucked the trend and strengthened, ultimately leading the gains across all industries with a 1.96% increase.

SMM May 23 News: On May 23, driven by heightened market concerns over the deteriorating fiscal outlook in the US, a weaker US dollar, and ongoing unrest in the Middle East, risk-averse sentiment surged in the market, leading to a collective rally in precious metals futures and stocks. In the futures market: As of 16:15 on May 23, COMEX gold rose by 1.01%, closing at $3,328.4 per ounce; COMEX silver increased by 0.7%, closing at $33.45 per ounce; SHFE gold rose by 0.1%, while SHFE silver fell by 0.37%, and silver T+D declined by 0.39%. In the stock market: On the 23rd, amidst a nearly 1% decline in the broader market, the precious metals sector bucked the trend and strengthened, ultimately leading the gains across all industries with a 1.96% increase. It is worth noting that precious metals futures and stocks have generally performed well this week. As of around 17:09 on May 23, COMEX gold had temporarily risen by 4.37% week-on-week, poised to record its largest single-week gain in over a month; COMEX silver had temporarily increased by 3.16% week-on-week; SHFE gold had risen by 3.76% week-on-week, SHFE silver had risen by 1.95% week-on-week; and the precious metals index had risen by 6.96% week-on-week. News Updates The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) issued a notice on May 23 regarding market risk control during the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The notice stated: In accordance with the holiday schedule for the Dragon Boat Festival, our exchange will be closed from May 31 (Saturday) to June 2 (Monday). There will be no night trading session on the evening of May 30 (Friday), and trading will resume as usual on June 3 (Tuesday). To guard against fluctuations in gold and silver prices in the international market during the holiday, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures", our exchange will adjust the margin ratios and price limits for gold and silver deferred contracts. The relevant matters are hereby notified as follows: 1. Starting from the settlement and clearing at the close of trading on Tuesday, May 27, 2025, the margin ratios for contracts such as Au(T+D), mAu(T+D), Au(T+N1), Au(T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 will be adjusted from 13% to 14%, and the price limits for the next trading day will be adjusted from 12% to 13%; the margin ratio for the Ag(T+D) contract will be adjusted from 16% to 17%, and the price limit for the next trading day will be adjusted from 15% to 16%. If a one-sided market occurs on May 27, and the adjusted margin and price limit levels, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures", are higher than the aforementioned standards, the higher standards shall apply. 2. After trading resumes on Tuesday, June 3, 2025, starting from the settlement and clearing at the close of the first trading day without a one-sided market, the margin ratios for contracts such as Au(T+D), mAu(T+D), Au(T+N1), Au(T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 will revert to 13%, and the price limits for the next trading day will revert to 12%; the margin ratio for the Ag(T+D) contract will revert to 16%, and the price limit for the next trading day will revert to 15%. All members are requested to enhance their awareness of risk prevention, meticulously formulate and implement risk emergency response plans, and advise investors to take measures for risk prevention, reasonably control their positions, invest rationally, and ensure the stable and healthy operation of the market. After last-minute amendments before the vote, the landmark tax cut bill proposed during Trump's 2.0 term finally narrowly passed the US House of Representatives, being sent to the Senate with a slim margin of just one vote in favor over opposition. Market observers are concerned that the measures in the bill may widen the US government's budget deficit, placing greater pressure on the US bond market. (Wall Street CN) On May 23, Bank of America Global Research stated in a report that the gold market experienced a net outflow of $2.9 billion in the week ending Wednesday, marking the largest weekly outflow since April 2013 and the third-largest on record. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week ending May 17 was 227,000, compared to market expectations of 230,000 and the previous week's 229,000. The number of continuing unemployment claims for the week ending May 10 was 1.903 million, compared to market expectations of 1.885 million and the previous week's 1.881 million. The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell by 2,000 to a four-week low last week, indicating that despite uncertainties brought about by trade policies, the labor market remains healthy. However, the number of continuing claims has risen, making it increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. Silver spot prices show significant gains, with market transactions improving. 》Click to view SMM precious metal spot prices 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot prices In the spot market: On May 23, the morning reference average ex-factory price for SMM1# silver was 8,215 yuan/kg, down 54 yuan/kg or 0.65% from the previous trading day. Compared to 8,090 yuan/kg on May 16 (last Friday), the average price of 8,215 yuan/kg represents an increase of 125 yuan/kg, with a weekly gain of 1.55%. It is reported that macroeconomic factors have boosted silver prices this week, with spot premiums from suppliers experiencing a slight decline towards the end of the week. Domestic spot market supply and demand have both declined, with some smelters suspending domestic spot quotes during the week due to factors such as prioritizing export demand. In the Shanghai area, tonne-scale national standard spot silver ingots available for self pick-up were quoted at a premium of 3-5 yuan/kg over TD, while large smelters' spot silver ingots were quoted at a premium of +5 to +8 yuan/kg over TD. Actual transactions at higher premium quotes were relatively difficult this week. In addition, silver nitrate production declined in late May, with downstream purchases primarily focused on long-term contract cargo pick-ups and spot order purchasing enthusiasm significantly weaker compared to April. Voices from All Sides [Is the Gold Bull Market Just Beginning? Analysts Say Historical Experience Suggests Prices Could Reach $4,500] Technical analyst and editor of *Daily Gold*, Jordan Roy-Byrne, pointed out that gold prices broke through a 13-year cup-and-handle formation in March last year, marking an important technical confirmation. Now, the driving factors of the macroeconomic situation are also converging, with the market witnessing rising US Treasury yields, the bond market entering a prolonged bear market, and a collapse in credit quality. He emphasized that similar macroeconomic backgrounds and technical conditions were present during the early stages of the gold bull markets in 1930, 1972, and 2002. Additionally, gold prices have surpassed the S&P 500 Index and the 60/40 portfolio, with inflation-adjusted gold prices just breaking above a 45-year low. Roy-Byrne stated that it is entirely possible for gold prices to reach $3,700 by the end of the year, and historical experience suggests that gold prices will reach $4,400 to $4,500 within the next 12 months. Furthermore, silver prices are also expected to surpass $100. 》Click for details Guosen Futures' research report points out: On the news front, the preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May both rose to 52.3, better than expected and the previous values. Enterprises accelerated stockpiling due to tariff risks, boosting the data. However, supply chain delays and soaring input costs exacerbated inflation stickiness, potentially strengthening market expectations that the US Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged, thereby suppressing precious metals in the short term. Coupled with the advancement of Trump's tax reform bill and the escalating risk of conflict between Iran and Israel, precious metals may continue to oscillate between the logic of policy tightening and stagflation hedging, with short-term technicals likely to remain volatile. In the medium and long-term, global central bank gold purchases and recurring geopolitical tensions are expected to consolidate the allocation value of precious metals. Regarding the trend of precious metals, SDIC Futures believes that the preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May both recorded 52.3, better than expected and the previous values, with weekly initial jobless claims falling to a four-week low of 227,000. Economic data remains resilient, causing precious metals to pull back. With recent trade wars and geopolitical conflicts still in the negotiation phase, market sentiment will continue to fluctuate, and the adjustment of international gold prices is unlikely to end soon. However, gold prices have shown resilience above the strong support level of $3,000 per ounce. The Chief Investment Office (CIO) of UBS Wealth Management expressed institutional views in early May, stating that the US dollar has recently been oversold and is expected to consolidate for a period in the short term. In the medium term, the trend of US dollar weakness may re-emerge, while gold prices should be well supported by "safe-haven" demand and structural buying. Goldman Sachs reiterated its structurally bullish view on gold, with a base case forecast of $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4,000 by mid-2026. The World Gold Council's press conference for the Global Gold Demand Trends Report for Q1 2025 was held on April 30. It was revealed at the conference that demand for gold ETFs in the Chinese market surged synchronously, with inflows of approximately 16.7 billion yuan (about $2.3 billion, equivalent to 23 mt) in Q1, reaching a record high. The soaring gold price and unprecedented inflows propelled both the total assets under management (AUM) and total open interest of gold ETFs to break historical records, reaching highs of 101 billion yuan (about $13.9 billion) and 138 mt, respectively. According to statistics, the total gold consumption demand in the Chinese market in Q1 (including gold bars, coins, and jewelry) was 249 mt, down 15% YoY, primarily due to weak demand for gold jewelry. In addition to bullish views on gold, however, some market participants anticipate a decline in gold prices. Vitaly Nesis, CEO of Solidcore, Kazakhstan's second-largest gold mining company, stated on April 25 that the company plans to produce approximately 15 mt of gold annually in Kazakhstan in 2025 and 2026. Gold has risen nearly 26% year-to-date due to concerns about an economic recession triggered by US tariffs. Nesis expects gold prices to fall in the coming year. He said, "I anticipate gold prices will fall to $2,500 within 12 months. Gold prices will not return to the $1,800-$1,900 range. A premium relative to fundamental levels will persist. However, the current situation represents an overreaction to what is happening in the world." Recommended Reading: 》Silver Bottoms Out and Rebounds, Market Focuses on Inflation and Geopolitical Risk Aversion [SMM Weekly Review of Silver Market]

》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM, May 23: Metal Market: Overnight, most of the domestic base metals market fell, with SHFE tin down 0.59%, SHFE copper down 0.12%, SHFE nickel down 0.48%, SHFE lead down 0.51%, SHFE aluminum down 0.17%, and SHFE zinc up 0.22%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.08%. Overnight, the ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore slightly down, stainless steel slightly up 0.04%, rebar flat at 3,059 yuan/mt, and HRC slightly down. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.2%, and coke rose 0.35%. Overnight, LME base metals nearly fell across the board, with LME copper down 0.15%, LME aluminum down 0.61%, LME lead down 0.51%, LME zinc up 0.43%, LME tin down 1.29%, and LME nickel down 0.72%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.56%, and COMEX silver fell 1.39%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.71%, and SHFE silver fell 0.52%. As of 8:22 a.m. on May 23, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [Latest Statements from the Ministry of Science and Technology, the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission Signal Important Developments] At 3 p.m. on the 22nd, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant officials introduced the situation regarding science and technology finance policies and answered questions from reporters. Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the "Science and Technology Board" in the bond market will primarily support top-tier equity investment institutions with strong rankings and rich investment experience in issuing bonds. Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, stated that the Ministry of Science and Technology will fully leverage its role as the leading department, further refine the task assignments for constructing the science and technology finance system, and promote the implementation of policy measures. Guo Wuping, spokesperson for the National Financial Regulatory Administration and Director of the Policy Research Department, stated that the initial pilot scale for the long-term investment reform pilot of insurance funds is 50 billion yuan, the second pilot is 112 billion yuan, and the third pilot of 60 billion yuan will be approved soon, bringing the total scale to 222 billion yuan. Yan Bojin, Chief Risk Officer of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and Director of the Issuance Supervision Department, stated that in response to the characteristics of technology enterprises, the CSRC has streamlined and optimized listing conditions, continuously enhancing the technological content of newly listed companies. The number of listed companies in strategic emerging industries on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges has approached 2,000, with a market capitalization ratio of nearly 40%. 》Click to view details [PBOC: Conducted RMB 500 billion MLF Operation on May 23 with a One-Year Tenor] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, it would conduct a Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation of RMB 500 billion on May 23, 2025 (Friday), with a one-year tenor, through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, and multiple-price bidding. US Dollar Aspect: The overnight US dollar index rose by 0.33% to close at 99.94. The US House of Representatives passed President Trump's massive tax and spending cut bill. Bond vigilantes continued to monitor the global bond market, with the US House narrowly passing President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax cut bill by a single vote. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, this would increase federal government debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade. Currently, US government debt stands at $36.2 trillion. US corporate activity rebounded in May, but the US's across-the-board tariffs have made imported goods more expensive for businesses and consumers. The S&P Global US Composite PMI, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 52.1 in May from 50.6 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell last week, and the labour market remained stable, providing some support to the US dollar. The US weekly report also showed that the number of unemployed Americans was close to the level at the end of 2021. In the week ending May 17, the number of Americans filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000. Economists surveyed had expected 230,000 claims. Other Currencies Aspect: The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, suggesting that economic activity may be stalling again. Bert Colijn, an economist at ING, pointed out that the impact of trade conflicts on the economy is more reflected in uncertainty than in direct shocks. The data only showed a slight decline in new overseas orders, while manufacturing output even increased. The services sector was the main reason for this economic slowdown, having previously been the main driver of Eurozone economic growth. Colijn stated that the Eurozone's economic activity still faces downside risks in the short term, as trade conflicts may further escalate. (Huitong Finance) Data Aspect: Today, data such as the UK's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Japan's April National CPI Year-on-Year Rate, Japan's April National Core CPI Year-on-Year Rate, Germany's Q1 Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly GDP Growth Rate Revised Value, Germany's Q1 Unadjusted Quarterly GDP Year-on-Year Growth Rate Revised Value, the UK's April Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Retail Sales Growth Rate, the UK's April Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Core Retail Sales Growth Rate, the US's April Monthly Building Permits Growth Rate Revised Value, the US's April Annualized Total Building Permits Revised Value, Canada's March Monthly Retail Sales Growth Rate, Canada's March Monthly Core Retail Sales Growth Rate, and the US's April Annualized Total Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales will be released. In addition, it is noteworthy that: FOMC permanent voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John C. Williams, delivered a keynote speech at the Monetary Policy Implementation Seminar; FOMC voting members for 2025, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Alberto G. Musalem, and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Esther L. George, participated in a fireside chat event in Northwest Arkansas hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Crude Oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, with WTI down 1.23% and Brent down 1.36%. The market is paying attention to reports that OPEC is discussing increasing production in July, which has sparked concerns that global supply growth may outpace demand growth. It is reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, forming the OPEC+ alliance, are discussing whether to significantly increase production again at their meeting on June 1. Delegates attending the meeting said that increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day in July is one of the options under discussion, but no final agreement has been reached. Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories last week, causing oil prices to fall during the trading session. The EIA stated that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels in the week ending May 16. Analysts surveyed had previously expected inventories to decrease by 1.3 million barrels. (Webstock Inc.)

★Macro★ 01 ★★★ PBOC Conducts CNY500 Billion MLF Operation on May 23 with a One-Year Tenor The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, it would conduct a CNY500 billion Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on May 23, 2025 (Friday), with a one-year tenor, through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, and multiple-price bidding. 02 ★★★ US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 227,000 Last Week The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 227,000 last week, the lowest level since the week ending April 19. Economists had forecast 230,000 claims, compared with 229,000 in the prior week. 03 ★★★ Global Crude Steel Production Down 0.3% YoY in April 2025: World Steel Association Global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 155.7 million mt in April 2025, according to data from the World Steel Association. ★Industry and Downstream Sectors★ 01 SMM Inventories of Ten Ports According to an SMM survey, the total inventories at 10 ports tracked by SMM stood at 104.28 million mt on May 22, down 1.19 million mt WoW. Destocking was more pronounced for coarse fines and lump ore, while there was a slight inventory buildup for concentrate fines and pellets. 02 [SMM Weekly HRC Balance] Production Declines Again, HRC Inventory Drawdown Accelerates This Week This week, maintenance at some steel mills in north and east China affected production. HRC production declined slightly. According to SMM's statistics this week, the social inventory of HRC at 86 warehouses (large sample) nationwide was 3.1196 million mt, down 176,600 mt WoW (-5.36% WoW, -22.31% YoY). The nationwide social inventory continued to decline this week, with the rate of decline expanding. By region, destocking was more pronounced in the east and north China markets than in the south and central China markets, as well as in north-east China. 03 SMM Summary of Construction Steel Inventories Nationwide On May 22, SMM's nationwide total rebar inventory was 5.6865 million mt, down 141,900 mt WoW (-2.43% WoW, -21.16% YoY). The nationwide total wire rod inventory was 1.1285 million mt, down 125,000 mt WoW (-9.97% WoW, -31.07% YoY). 04 China's Cumulative Installed Power Generation Capacity Nears 3.5 Billion kW in First Four Months Statistics released by the National Energy Administration show that as of the end of April, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.49 billion kW, up 15.9% YoY. Among them, the installed power generation capacity of solar energy was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY; the installed capacity of wind power was 540 million kW, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April this year, the investment completed in power supply projects by major power generation enterprises nationwide was 193.3 billion yuan, up 1.6% YoY; the investment completed in power grid projects was 140.8 billion yuan, up 14.6% YoY. 05 The number of land plots proposed to be acquired using special bonds announced by various regions approached 3,000 The pace of announcing the use of special bonds for land acquisition has significantly accelerated across regions. According to incomplete statistics from China Index Academy, as of May 20, the number of idle land plots proposed to be acquired using special bonds announced nationwide approached 3,000, with a total area exceeding 133 million m² and a total amount exceeding 350 billion yuan. ★Other Hot Topics★ ⭕ UK's 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to its highest level since April 9, reaching 5.579%, up 6 basis points on the day. ⭕US Fed Governor Waller stated that if tariffs decrease, the US Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. ⭕ [Han Zheng Attends and Delivers a Speech at the Opening Ceremony of the 2025 Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit] Vice President Han Zheng attended and delivered a speech at the opening ceremony of the 2025 Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit in Beijing. Han Zheng stated that President Xi Jinping has pointed out the need to actively promote the deep integration of the internet, big data, artificial intelligence, and the real economy, accelerate the development of new quality productive forces, and provide new momentum for high-quality development. Currently, a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is advancing, with the widespread application of new industries and technologies represented by the digital economy and artificial intelligence, which are changing the global trade and investment landscape and presenting significant development opportunities and broad prospects. As the era of digital intelligence accelerates, we must work together to actively promote global trade and investment transformation and foster common development. ⭕[Anhui Initiates Level IV Flood Control Emergency Response in Eight Cities] According to forecasts from Anhui province's meteorological department, from May 22 to 23, there will be heavy rain in Hefei, Lu'an, Wuhu, Xuancheng, Tongling, Chizhou, Anqing, Huangshan, and other cities, with torrential rain in some areas of Lu'an, Chizhou, Anqing, and Huangshan, accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and gales. In accordance with the provisions of the "Anhui Provincial Flood Control and Drought Relief Emergency Plan," the provincial flood control headquarters decided to initiate a Level IV flood control emergency response in Hefei, Lu'an, Wuhu, Xuancheng, Tongling, Chizhou, Anqing, and Huangshan at 16:00 on May 22. ⭕[Jiangxi Initiates Flood Warning Response and Level IV Emergency Response for Major Meteorological Disasters] The Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Service initiated a Level IV emergency response for major meteorological disasters in response to the heavy rainfall weather process. From the daytime of May 22 to 23, Jiangxi Province experienced a significant convective precipitation weather process from north to south. Heavy rainfall occurred in parts of the central and northern regions, with torrential rain in localized areas. Some regions were also accompanied by strong thunder and lightning, thunderstorm gales of level 8 to 10, and short-term heavy rainfall. The accumulated rainfall was 40 to 70 millimeters in northern and central-northern Jiangxi, exceeding 120 millimeters in localized areas; it was 10 to 30 millimeters in southern central Jiangxi and southern Jiangxi, with 40 millimeters in localized areas. At 10:00 on May 22, the Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Observatory issued a blue alert for heavy rainfall. ⭕[AmCham China President: US Companies Will Continue to Invest in China] The 2025 Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit was held in Beijing. Michael Hart, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham China), stated that China, as the world's second-largest economy, still has significant room for economic growth in the next decade and will continue to focus on innovation. US companies will continue to invest in China and participate in its economic growth and innovation. Regarding tariff issues, Hart mentioned that the new US administration's tariff policies have attracted global attention. However, the tariff war is like a "test of facts," proving that China is an important commodity market for the US and a crucial supply source for US goods. Maintaining supply chain resilience will benefit both countries. ⭕ [TISCO Group and Pingmei Shenma Group Sign Strategic Cooperation Agreement] On May 19, TISCO Group and Pingmei Shenma Group held a signing ceremony for a strategic cooperation agreement. Wu Xiaodi, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of TISCO Group, Gao Feng, Member of the Party Committee Standing Committee and Deputy General Manager of TISCO Group, Li Yanhe, General Manager of Pingmei Shenma Group, and Wang Anle, Deputy General Manager of Pingmei Shenma Group, along with relevant department and unit leaders from both sides, attended the ceremony. ⭕ [Ansteel Group Mining Company Controls 8.8 Billion Tons of Iron Ore Resources] Recently, Ansteel Steel stated in an investor relations activity that, facing the severe situation of a weak and fluctuating decline in the steel market, the company has worked hard to expand the market, continuously adjusted product mix to enhance efficiency, tapped into internal potential, significantly improved its sales profit margin, substantially reduced losses across all units in the steel segment, and significantly enhanced production line efficiency and market competitiveness. By implementing the concept of "accounting-based operations" and through measures such as strengthening benchmarking and potential tapping, as well as improving operational efficiency, the company reduced the cost per ton of steel across the entire process by 102 yuan compared to the previous year, reduced the cost of externally purchased energy per ton of steel by 10%, and reduced the cost of pig iron by 12% compared to the previous year. On the procurement side, the company deepened cost-effective and collaborative procurement, continuously reducing the consumption cost of materials per ton of steel. In the first quarter of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was -554 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.55%. ⭕ [Shuohuang Railway Marks 25th Anniversary of Operation with Cumulative Freight Volume Exceeding 5.21 Billion Tons] As of May 18, the Shuohuang Railway marked its 25th anniversary of operation, having completed 50,469,820,000 mt of coal transportation and 1,626,740,000 mt of non-coal transportation, with a cumulative cargo transportation volume exceeding 5.21 billion tons, achieving 9,131 consecutive days of safe production and operation. ⭕ [Angang Lianzhong Obtains "Pass" to Japan's High-end Market] Recently, Angang Lianzhong successfully passed the JIS certification, marking the company's acquisition of the "pass" to Japan's high-end market and laying a solid foundation for further enhancing the international competitiveness of its products. ⭕ [Chongqing Iron & Steel Achieves Successful Trial Run of Full-Length Rolling Process for Heavy Plate Production Line] Recently, Chongqing Iron & Steel successfully completed the first trial run of the full-length rolling process for its heavy plate production line, achieving a one-time successful trial run of 30mm-thick sheets & plates! This represents a significant breakthrough for Chongqing Iron & Steel in the field of medium-thickness plate production technology, injecting strong momentum into the company's efforts to explore the high-end product market and enhance its core competitiveness! ⭕[Successful Commissioning of the Upgrade Project for the Electric Control System of the No. 3 Flying Shear at Nanchang Fangda High-speed Wire Rod Mill] Recently, the upgrade project for the electric control system of the No. 3 flying shear at Nanchang Fangda High-speed Wire Rod Mill, designed, supplied, and commissioned by Jingcheng Digital Technology Co., Ltd., was officially commissioned. Through independent technological innovation, the project successfully resolved technical challenges that had plagued the production line for over a decade, helping the enterprise achieve new breakthroughs in cost reduction and efficiency enhancement. ⭕ [Shagang's HRC Reheating Furnace Upgrade Project Starts Production] On May 17, the No. 2 reheating furnace of the HRC reheating furnace upgrade project for Workshop 1 at Shagang, implemented by WISDRI Southern (Hubei) Heavy Industries Engineering Co., Ltd. (WISDRI Southern Refractory & Thermal Engineering Co., Ltd.) on an EPC basis, was successfully ignited, marking the beginning of the furnace drying stage.

SMM News on May 16: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally declined, with SHFE zinc down 1.06%, SHFE nickel down 0.78%, and SHFE lead down 0.76%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract fell by 3.34%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract dropped by 4.19%, the main silicon metal contract fell by 3.89%, and polysilicon declined by 3.26%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 6.37%. The ferrous metals series collectively declined, with rebar down 1.15%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 3.84%, and coke declined by 1.93%. In the overseas market, as of 15:05, overseas base metals collectively declined, with all declines within 1%. LME lead fell by 0.85%, and LME zinc dropped by 0.61%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. In precious metals, as of 15:05, COMEX gold fell by 0.25%, and COMEX silver declined by 0.54%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.88%, and SHFE silver increased by 0.61%. Market conditions as of 15:05 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspects: [Preview] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference for Chinese and foreign journalists titled "Strivers on the New Journey" at 3:00 p.m. on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. Representatives from the civil affairs system will meet with Chinese and foreign journalists to discuss "Fulfilling the Mission of Civil Affairs and Enhancing People's Well-being." [Export-Import Bank of China: Medium and Long-Term Manufacturing Loans Exceeded 180 Billion Yuan from January to April] Data released by the Export-Import Bank of China today showed that from January to April, the bank disbursed over 180 billion yuan in medium and long-term manufacturing loans. The balance of medium and long-term manufacturing loans at the end of April was 1.8 trillion yuan, with a focus on supporting the export of manufacturing products such as ships and construction machinery. The bank actively met the full-cycle financial needs of technology-based enterprises, fully supporting the construction of a modern industrial system. [CPCA's Cui Dongshu: China's Power Battery Installations Reached 54.1 GWh in April, Up 52.8% YoY] CPCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu released an analysis of the new energy vehicle lithium battery market in April. In April, China's power battery installations reached 54.1 GWh, down 4.3% MoM and up 52.8% YoY. Among them, ternary battery installations were 9.3 GWh, accounting for 17.2% of total installations, down 7.0% MoM and 6.3% YoY. LFP battery installations were 44.8 GWh, accounting for 82.8% of total installations, down 3.8% MoM and up 75.9% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative power battery installations reached 184.3 GWh, up 52.8% YoY. Among them, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries was 34.3 GWh, accounting for 18.6% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. The cumulative installed capacity of LFP batteries was 150.0 GWh, accounting for 81.4% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 88.0%. (Cailian Press) ► The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 16 was 7.1938 RMB per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:05, the US dollar index fell by 0.22%. Fed Chairman Powell stated that the US may be entering a period of more frequent and longer-lasting supply shocks. The narrative of tariff easing has been somewhat absorbed, and trade disputes have left the US economic outlook uncertain, leading to a weaker US dollar and a decline in US bond yields. The monthly rate of US retail sales in April rose by 0.1%, against expectations of no change, with the previous figure revised from a 1.4% increase to a 1.5% increase. The sluggish growth in US retail sales in April indicates that the boost from households purchasing cars ahead of tariff implementation has faded, and households have cut back on other spending amid an uncertain economic outlook, with concerns about slowing economic growth intensifying. In addition, the US PPI in April rose by 2.4% YoY, lower than expected and the previous figure, with the growth rate declining for the third consecutive month and hitting a new low since September last year. The PPI in April fell by 0.5% MoM, the largest decline in five years. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits remained stable last week, with the layoff rate staying at a low level. On May 15 local time, Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference. Powell stated that inflation may become more volatile in the future, and the US may be entering a period of more frequent and longer-lasting supply shocks, posing a daunting challenge to the economy and the central bank. Powell indicated that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework to address significant changes in the inflation and interest rate outlook following the 2020 pandemic. Fed Governor Barr said on Thursday that the US economy is on a solid footing, with inflation returning towards the Fed's 2% target, but trade policies are casting a shadow over the outlook. Macro: Today, data such as China's total electricity consumption in April - monthly, the initial monthly rate of US housing starts in April, the initial annualized total of US housing starts in April, the monthly rate of the US import price index in April, the annual rate of the US import price index in April, the annualized total of US housing starts in April, the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US in May, the seasonally adjusted trade balance of the Eurozone in March, the initial value of the seasonally adjusted real GDP quarterly rate for Japan in Q1, the initial value of the seasonally adjusted nominal GDP quarterly rate for Japan in Q1, the initial value of the seasonally adjusted real GDP annualized quarterly rate for Japan in Q1, the expected inflation rate for New Zealand over the next two years in Q2, and the expected inflation rate for New Zealand over the next year in Q2 will be released. Crude Oil Market: As of 15:05, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude down 0.41% and Brent crude down 0.34%. The International Energy Agency (IEA) {{yesterday}} forecast that global oil inventories would surge in 2025 and 2026, as trade uncertainties exacerbate the decline in oil demand from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and Saudi Arabia and its partners ease production cuts. The report stated that policy uncertainty remains high, putting pressure on consumer and business confidence. The tariff supply shock appears less severe than previously anticipated, prompting an upward revision of the economic growth assumptions underpinning demand forecasts. Despite recent economic weakness, emerging economies are expected to continue driving demand growth, with total demand forecasted to average 103.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025. However, oil consumption data from non-OECD countries has been disappointing. The IEA forecasts an accelerated decline in overall oil demand from advanced OECD economies, with a drop of 120,000 bpd in 2025 and 240,000 bpd in 2026. The report noted that, despite continued growth in emerging market demand, "the latest delivery data from non-OECD countries, particularly major consumers like India, have consistently fallen short of expectations." The IEA stated that after global oil inventories declined at a rate of 140,000 bpd in 2024, they are expected to increase by 720,000 bpd in 2025 and 930,000 bpd in 2026. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► May 16: Aluminum prices end their upward streak, while aluminum billet processing fees continue to face downward pressure amid adjustments [Daily Review of Spot Aluminum Billet] ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] May 16: MHP prices in Indonesia increase slightly ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] May 16: Demand for nickel salts weakens SMM Weekly Review ► Mixed sentiments in the Asian offshore market, with Yangshan copper premiums peaking and pulling back [SMM Weekly Review of Yangshan Copper] ► Domestic processing fees remain stable, while import processing fees rise slightly [SMM Weekly Review of Zinc Concentrates] ► Orders on hand support production at copper wire and cable enterprises, but new orders raise concerns [SMM Weekly Review of Wire and Cable Market] ► First-round inquiries for mainstream steel tenders fall short of expectations, with SiMn prices stabilizing after a slight increase [SMM Weekly Review] ► Favourable macro front spurs firm quotes from manganese plants [SMM Weekly Review of EMM]

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Price Spread Between Futures Contracts Widens as Delivery Approaches, Limited Upside Room for Copper Prices] On May 8, spot premiums for SMM #1 copper cathode against the May 2025 (2505) contract were reported at a range of 190 yuan/mt to 260 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 225 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt WoW. According to SMM data, inventory in the Shanghai region decreased by 3,200 mt from Tuesday to 86,400 mt. Although the continuous decline in inventory supports spot premiums, as delivery approaches, the willingness of bears/shorts to drive down prices and purchase copper will emerge. Moreover, the widening price spread between futures contracts will further suppress spot premiums. It is expected that spot premiums will continue to decline today...

SMM News on May 9: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,381/mt, dipping to a low of $9,358/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of $9,475/mt near the close, and eventually settled at $9,474.5/mt, up 0.73%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest stood at 291,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2506 contract opened at and dipped to a low of 77,540 yuan/mt. It fluctuated rangebound in the early session before rising throughout the day, reaching a high of 78,170 yuan/mt near the close, and eventually settled at 78,140 yuan/mt, up 0.72%. Trading volume reached 42,000 lots, and open interest stood at 182,000 lots. On the macro front, Trump announced a trade deal with the UK, raising hopes for similar agreements with other countries. Meanwhile, in the week ending May 3, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell by 13,000 to 228,000. After the central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, Powell said that although tariffs could lead to higher unemployment and inflation, the labour market remained robust, and copper prices maintained a slight upward trend. On the fundamental side, supply-wise, as the delivery date approached, spot arbitrageurs actively sold their positions due to the widening price spread between futures contracts. However, with inventories in the Shanghai area continuing to decline, overall supply remained tight, providing some support for spot premiums. Demand-wise, although there was some buying sentiment in the morning session, it was mainly driven by just-in-time procurement from some downstream players. Overall market activity was moderate, with no large-scale buying observed. As of May 8, inventories in the Shanghai area decreased by 3,200 mt from Tuesday to 86,400 mt. The continuous decline in inventories provided support for spot premiums. However, factors such as the widening price spread between futures contracts and the approaching delivery date are expected to curb spot premiums, which may continue to fall tomorrow. In terms of prices, it is expected that there will be limited upside potential for copper prices today.

[SMM Commentary: Domestic Copper Inventories Likely to Reverse After Two Weeks of Consecutive Increases; Macro Front May Continue to Weigh on Copper Prices] The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week fell to an eight-month low, which the market interpreted as a sign of a still-resilient US job market. Coupled with concerns that the US Fed may adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2025 and that US tariff policies could exacerbate inflation and limit rate cuts, the US dollar index has recently hovered at a high level of 108, reaching a more than two-year high of 109.56 on January 2. Market concerns over macro uncertainties in 2025 and weakening end-use demand for copper have both put pressure on copper prices. As of 16:58 on January 3, LME copper rose by 0.06% to $8,808/mt, while its weekly performance showed a temporary decline of 1.94%. SHFE copper fell by 0.52% to 72,920 yuan/mt, with a weekly decline of 1.92%.