SMM, March 23: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,893/mt. In early trading, prices consolidated within the range of $1,882–1,895/mt, and briefly dipped to $1,880/mt intraday. Bulls then stepped in, driving prices sharply higher to a high of $1,908/mt. After consolidating at high levels, bullish momentum weakened somewhat, and LME lead turned into a fluctuating downward trend. LME lead prices saw wide swings within the range of $1,888–1,898/mt, and finally closed at $1,889/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down $8/mt, or 0.42%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,360 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fell rapidly, hitting a low of 16,325 yuan/mt. SHFE lead then fluctuated upward, but failed to break through resistance, and lead prices fluctuated downward again. After 22:30, prices gradually stabilized and rebounded, reaching a high of 16,445 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices then fluctuated rangebound within the range of 16,410–16,445 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up 125 yuan/mt, or 0.77%. Supply side, with lead prices running at low levels, primary lead enterprises showed weak willingness to sell, while secondary lead enterprises held prices firm and were reluctant to sell on cost support, leaving overall market trading sluggish. Demand side, downstream battery plants only maintained rigid-demand procurement through long-term contracts, while remaining cautious and wait-and-see toward spot order purchases. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM News: As of March 20, 2026, the market price for Praseodymium-Neodymium (Pr-Nd) metal in China stabilized temporarily at 890,000–910,000 RMB/ton. This article utilizes the SMM Pr-Nd Terminal Demand Calculation Model to dissect the demand logic for 2026 across three core sectors—New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, and Wind Power—explaining the current supply-demand dilemma facing the NdFeB magnet and broader Pr-Nd markets.

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,000-10,100 yuan/mt; prices of stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan also rose, with the price range at 9,600-9,900 yuan/mt. In terms of raw material production costs, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,098.03 yuan/mt, while the cost of production using only high-grade NPI was 14,786.98 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices fell back, mainly driven by macro sentiment disruptions, weak futures, and pressure on both supply and demand. Escalating geopolitical conflicts, coupled with hawkish remarks from the US Fed, dragged SS futures into the doldrums overall, with the bearish impact directly transmitted to the spot market. Stainless steel finished product prices also pulled back across the board, and market pessimism gradually spread. Prices of substitute raw materials also pulled back, while stainless steel mills showed a strong inclination to push for lower prices. NPI traders turned weaker in sentiment and sold at low prices, and the high-grade NPI market also softened. In addition, Tsingshan's April tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome was set low, not only below previous market expectations but also lower than current retail quotations, limiting room for ferrochrome prices to rise and eliminating the support from substitute raw materials for stainless steel scrap. Currently, inventory at stainless steel scrap yards remained relatively high. Coupled with tight tax invoice availability, stainless steel mills were not active in procurement tenders, and the procurement pace continued to slow down. Amid the resonance of multiple bearish factors, stainless steel scrap prices fell in line with futures and finished products. Although stainless steel scrap still maintained a clear economic advantage over high-grade NPI, under the overall weak market atmosphere, cost support was difficult to translate into price support and failed to reverse the downward price trend. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a weak pattern of "futures drag, weaker raw materials, and pressure on supply and demand." In the short term, bearish factors are expected to dominate, and stainless steel scrap prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

SMM News, March 20: Lead prices weakened this week, and secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices due to profit pressure. Today, the average scrap battery purchase prices at smelters were: waste e-bike battery at 9,825 yuan/mt, waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) at 9,875 yuan/mt, and waste automotive starter lead-acid battery (black shell) at 10,125 yuan/mt. Recyclers also followed the decline, and after prices were cut, downstream collection outlets held back cargoes, with recycling volume decreasing WoW. Smelter inventory diverged, with low-inventory smelters holding only enough for one week of production, while high-inventory smelters made limited just-in-time procurement after small price cuts. According to the SMM survey, market expectations for lead prices were weak, and if prices continue to weaken next week, scrap battery prices are expected to be lowered again. This week, the mainstream self pick-up price at major ports for imported crude lead was at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while some cargoes were at a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Domestic secondary crude lead cargoes were quoted firmly due to insufficient operating rates caused by cost pressure. As of this Friday, the mainstream tax-excluded ex-factory prices stood near 15,200 yuan/mt. Going into next week, imported lead is still expected to arrive at ports one after another, and downstream enterprises have been active in making inquiries. SMM expects domestic secondary crude lead supply to remain tight. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

This week, the rare earth market outside China showed a divergent pattern of “cerium up, the rest down.” Driven by price increases in China and rising ocean freight rates, cerium oxide FOB and CIF prices rose by $55/mt and $60/mt, respectively, while FOB offers for mainstream magnetic material raw materials such as praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium were generally lowered by $3-19.5/kg due to lower prices in China and tight supply caused by export controls. Although limited trading volumes supported premiums in markets outside China, expectations of an industrial slowdown in Europe triggered by the Middle East situation may suppress subsequent demand. On industry developments, Lynas’ Malaysia plant started samarium oxide production ahead of schedule, consolidating its position as the only commercial heavy rare earth separator outside China and advancing its 2030 strategy. In Australia, Terrain discovered high-grade magnetic rare earth ore intervals during drilling at its Western Australia project, highlighting significant resource potential.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,093.5/mt. Early in the session, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and fell to $11,754/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of $12,228.5/mt, before seeing wide swings and finally closing at $12,211.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 46,900 lots, open interest stood at 288,600 lots, an increase of 239 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 92,500 yuan/mt and fell to 91,820 yuan/mt early in the session. The center of copper prices then fluctuated upward to a high of 95,530 yuan/mt, before fluctuating rangebound and finally closing at 94,920 yuan/mt, down 0.91%. Trading volume reached 153,000 lots, open interest stood at 197,000 lots, down 6,302 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long liquidation.

Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. At the start of the week, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continued to cool, and the market even began to price in possible rate hikes, weakening expectations for macro liquidity and putting copper prices under pressure, causing them to pull back. Mid-week, after the US Fed kept rates unchanged, the US PPI annual rate rose more than expected to 3.4, further weighing on market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year. According to market sources, traders no longer priced in any US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on easing expectations faded further. The continued escalation in US-Iran tensions fueled safe-haven sentiment, while elevated oil prices intensified concerns over inflation and economic weakness. The stronger US dollar index also suppressed copper prices. In terms of fund positioning, the futures were mainly marked by long liquidation, with risk-off sentiment among funds rising and willingness to take profits at high levels increasing. Overall, macro headwinds dominated market sentiment, and copper prices came under pressure and corrected lower. Fundamentals side, copper concentrates TC continued to pull back. This week, the imported copper concentrates index was reported at -$67.32/mt, further lower WoW and at a historical low, with smelting pressure continuing to mount. In copper cathode, the continued downward shift in the center of copper prices significantly stimulated restocking demand from downstream enterprises, and spot inventory showed a rapid destocking trend. The import window remained open, but actual subsequent inflows of imported cargo still need further observation. According to SMM, orders at most downstream enterprises surged, with generally strong enthusiasm for buying the dip. Some sectors were notably boosted by the pullback in copper prices, and order performance improved. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic remains unchanged. Cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, intertwined with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, will continue to weigh on copper prices. However, fundamental support for copper prices is gradually strengthening. Faster destocking and stronger downstream restocking willingness will limit downside room, and copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $11,700/mt and $12,500/mt, and SHFE copper between 91,000 yuan/mt and 97,000 yuan/mt. Spot side, as downstream restocking continues and inventory is drawn down, spot premiums are expected to continue to recover, but inflows of imported cargo and suppliers selling on strength will cap upside room. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt.

[Downstream Enterprises Actively Priced and Purchased, with Spot Transactions Improving Significantly During the Week]: This week, Ningbo spot premiums continued to rise, with the weekly average price up 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, Ningbo spot prices against the 2604 contract were at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, with a premium of 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai, and the premium against Shanghai widened during the week..

[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

SMM News, March 20: This week, secondary refined lead was mostly quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with some cargoes available for delivered premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Affected by falling lead prices, downstream wait-and-see sentiment, and relatively cautious procurement, suppliers showed weak willingness to sell, and overall market transactions were sluggish. This week, secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices, easing raw material cost pressure, and losses narrowed WoW; as of March 20, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises stood at -337 yuan/mt, versus -541 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (the model's by-product revenue did not include tin and antimony). As smelters that resumed production continued to release capacity, ample supply weighed on lead prices. Combined with the wide range of cargo types available to downstream enterprises, spot order premiums for secondary refined lead are expected to narrow next week, while actual prices will still depend on changes in raw material costs. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices