SMM May 20 News: Metals market: Overnight base metals on domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.21% increase, while LME aluminum, SHFE aluminum, and SHFE nickel all rose less than 1%. LME tin fell 2.06%, LME copper 1.2%, SHFE tin dropped 1.35%, and other metals declined less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 0.11%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract rose 0.24%. Overnight ferrous metals collectively rose. Stainless steel gained 0.38%, iron ore rose 0.25%, rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose around 0.03%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.04% and coke gained 0.11%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.59%, and COMEX silver dropped 4.49%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.11% to 989.5 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver dropped 3.44%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:47 AM on May 20: Macro Front On the evening of May 19, Russian President Putin arrived in Beijing by special aircraft. At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, Russian President Putin paid a state visit to China from May 19 to 20. (CCTV News) China: [National Energy Administration: Total Electricity Consumption in April 2026 Up 6.0% YoY] On May 19, the National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption for April. In April, total electricity consumption reached 820.5 billion kWh, up 6.0% YoY. By sector, the primary industry consumed 11.2 billion kWh, up 2.0% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 558.4 billion kWh, up 5.3% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 553.8 billion kWh, up 5.5% YoY, and high-tech equipment manufacturing consumed 105 billion kWh, up 10.1% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 151.7 billion kWh, up 8.9% YoY; of which, EV charging and battery swapping services and internet data services consumed 13.7 billion and 8.2 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 61.9% and 42.8%. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 99.2 billion kWh, up 6.0% YoY. (National Energy Administration) (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.31. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson stated that the current interest rate level is appropriate given persistently elevated price pressures, and is exerting downward pressure on inflation. However, it is "healthy" for investors to begin considering scenarios where rate hikes may be needed. "Monetary policy is mildly restrictive, and that restrictiveness is helping to contain the impact of tariffs and price increases triggered by the Middle East conflict. Taking all of these... factors into account, I believe the current monetary policy stance is appropriate," Paulson said in remarks prepared for an Atlanta Fed conference. (Wallstreetcn) Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (2026 FOMC voting member): She is inclined to keep rates steady and has set sustained progress on disinflation as a precondition for cutting interest rates. The labour market remains stable, but inflation is still too high. An interest rate cut will only become appropriate when sustained progress on reducing inflation is observed. The US Fed's future policy path largely depends on how long the war's disruption to oil and other commodity supplies persists. If the conflict is resolved quickly, inflation and inflation risks could dissipate relatively rapidly. (Wallstreetcn) A Huatai Securities research report stated that it is indeed difficult for the US Fed to cut interest rates again in H2 this year, and based on current trends, rate hikes may be necessary next year. Huatai Securities' latest base case assumption is that the US Fed will keep the policy rate unchanged this year, but guidance will be more hawkish than before. The neutral forecast for next year is two rate hikes, above current market expectations, primarily based on a relatively optimistic base case assumption for nominal growth. However, this forecast still faces considerable uncertainties including US economic fundamentals, geopolitical changes, and global growth. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 84.4%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 14.8% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, UK April CPI MoM, UK April Retail Price Index MoM, Germany April PPI MoM, Eurozone April CPI YoY final, and Eurozone April CPI MoM final. In addition, SpaceX's Starship V3 will attempt its maiden flight, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will deliver a speech, and Fed Governor Barr will also speak. Crude oil: As of overnight close, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 0.34% and Brent down 1.05%. Earlier, US Vice President Vance said significant progress had been made in US-Iran negotiations, somewhat easing market concerns about crude oil supply. Notably, the NYMEX WTI crude oil June futures contract, affected by contract rollover, completed its last pit trading at 2:30 AM on May 20 and last electronic trading at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to exchange expiration and rollover announcements to manage risk. Additionally, some trading platforms typically expire WTI contracts one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule, so please take note. Citigroup maintained its consistent view that the current crude oil market clearly underestimates the duration of geopolitical risks and potential tail risks. Brent crude prices are expected to surge to $120/barrel in the near term. Under a bullish scenario (with multiple pathways that could trigger it), Brent crude could reach as high as $150/barrel. Citi's forecast for 2026 global crude oil demand growth is -600,000 bpd (-0.6 mb/d), with YoY declines in Q2, Q3, and Q4 estimated at -2.4 million bpd, -800,000 bpd, and -300,000 bpd respectively. (Wallstreetcn) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory was -9.11 million barrels, compared with -2.188 million barrels the previous week. Last week, API Cushing crude oil inventory was -1.428 million barrels (previous: -1.755 million barrels). Last week, API gasoline inventory was -5.795 million barrels (previous: +502,000 barrels), and distillate inventory was -1.047 million barrels (previous: -319,000 barrels). (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported, citing a senior NATO official, that NATO is discussing the possibility of assisting commercial vessels through the blocked Strait of Hormuz if it remains closed by early July. According to a diplomat from a NATO member state, the proposal has received support from several NATO members but has not yet achieved the unanimous consent required for approval. A coalition led by France and the UK is developing a plan to secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as frontline hostilities ease. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,477/mt, dipped to a low of $13,436/mt in early trading, then the price center gradually shifted upward to reach $13,625/mt, and finally moved sideways at high levels to close at $13,590/mt, up 0.34%, with trading volume at 24,000 lots and open interest at 283,000 lots, an increase of 2,099 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,480 yuan/mt, touched a high of 104,840 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center shifted slightly lower to a low of 104,440 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 104,590 yuan/mt, up 0.28%, with trading volume at 30,000 lots and open interest at 154,000 lots, a decrease of 3,110 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment: Bullish and Bearish Factors Coexist in Fundamentals, SHFE Zinc Maintains Fluctuating Trend] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2607 contract opened at 24,800 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE zinc touched a high of 24,800 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE zinc quickly pulled back to near the daily average line, hitting a low of 24,605 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc then moved sideways around the daily average line, eventually closing lower at 24,690 yuan/mt.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment: Zinc Concentrate TCs Continued to Decline, SHFE Zinc Maintained Fluctuating Trend] Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2606 contract opened at 24,650 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE zinc fluctuated around the moving average. During the session, SHFE zinc touched a high of 24,770 yuan/mt, and near the close, SHFE zinc dipped to a low of 24,600 yuan/mt..

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: US Dollar Index Continued to Strengthen, LME Zinc Retreated from Highs]: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,589.5/mt, touched a high of $3,590/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward, hitting an intraday low of $3,510/mt, before hovering at lows around the daily average line, ultimately closing lower at $3,538.5/mt...

SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 95,150 yuan/mt, initially moved sideways and touched a high of 95,350 yuan/mt. After the daytime session opened, the copper price center shifted downward, dipping to 92,920 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and ultimately closed at 92,950 yuan/mt, down 1.88%. Open interest stood at 9,432 lots, a decrease of 206 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 10,727 lots, an increase of 870 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, both CPI and PPI data exceeded expectations. Combined with Warsh's appointment, market expectations for interest rate hikes heated up. Multiple factors jointly pushed US Treasury yield higher, strengthening the US dollar and putting copper prices under pressure. On the fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of both imported and domestic sources edged up, with the tight supply situation marginally improving. Demand side, the pullback in copper prices did not bring effective improvement, and overall trading activity remained relatively subdued. The SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 104,710 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2606 contract price of 92,950 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 105,034 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2606 contract and BC copper was -324 yuan/mt, showing an inversion that widened compared to the previous day.

[SMM Weekly Platinum and Palladium Review] This week (May 11 – May 15), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on China's GFEX opened at 509 yuan/gram and closed at 499.05 yuan/gram, down 14.95 yuan/gram or 2.91% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 542.25 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 496.05 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 366 yuan/gram and closed at 345 yuan/gram, down 26.45 yuan/gram or 7.12% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 376.85 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 340 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 32,874 lots with a total turnover of 17.139 billion yuan and open interest of 9,970 lots, down 4,309 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,453 lots with a total turnover of 6.651 billion yuan and open interest of 6,565 lots, down 499 lots WoW. Platinum and palladium first rose and then declined during the week. Peru experienced a sudden energy crisis within the week and issued a national emergency decree. Power rationing was expected to cause mine shutdowns, thereby affecting supply. As the world's 12th largest mining country, Peru holds 21.8% of global silver reserves, which triggered a silver rally. Driven by sector spillover effects, platinum and palladium also rose accordingly. The subsequent decline was concentrated on Friday, when platinum and palladium plunged sharply intraday. Trump's visit to China eased tariff expectations and suppressed strategic resource premiums, while a rising US dollar index and elevated medium- to long-term US Treasury yields jointly weighed on precious metal valuations. On the Middle East geopolitical front: Gulf states discussed post-war regional governance. Saudi Arabia proposed a non-aggression pact, and Israel's defense minister stated that military action against Iran might be taken again. On the US Fed front: the US Senate confirmed Warsh as Fed Chairman by a vote of 54 to 45. However, Powell is expected to remain as a Fed governor. This vote marked the most partisan-divided confirmation in history. "The strongest dissenting governor" Miran officially submitted his resignation on Thursday, stating that the current interest rates were too high. On trade and tariffs: during Trump's visit to China, the two sides reached multiple important consensuses, agreeing to manage tariff differences and restart dedicated trade negotiations. The US suspended new tariffs on China and will gradually reduce punitive tariffs. Both sides enhanced strategic mutual trust and expanded cooperation across multiple areas, laying an important foundation for the easing and stable development of bilateral relations. In terms of supply: South Africa's power shortage eased significantly, and PGM mine expansions progressed; Nornickel's Q1 platinum and palladium production declined sharply, mainly due to Western sanctions affecting its payments, logistics, and equipment imports. Nornickel's platinum and palladium production is expected to see significant production cuts in 2026. On the demand side: PGM demand from the fiberglass industry showed positive momentum. In 2026, China's fiberglass industry is expected to shift from platinum-based to palladium-based applications, with multiple enterprises deploying related technologies and considerable substitution potential. Recent precious metals market trading focused on uncertainties arising from recurring Middle East geopolitical conflicts, US Fed monetary policy expectations, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. Continued attention should be paid to changes in Middle East geopolitical dynamics, the implementation of power rationing in Peru, and speeches by US Fed officials, as well as palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector.

SMM News, May 15: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1.61%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.09%, SHFE lead declined 0.6%, SHFE zinc slipped 0.24%, SHFE tin lost 2.14%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.82%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum alloy futures fell 1.04%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 0.64%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract declined 0.54%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 1.84%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures slipped 0.08%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore dropped 0.8%, rebar declined 0.18%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.43%, and stainless steel lost 1.27%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.29%, and the most-traded coke contract dropped 0.85%. Overseas market base metals: as of 11:46, LME metals declined across the board. LME copper fell 1.46%, LME aluminum dropped 0.82%, LME lead slipped 0.47%, LME zinc declined 0.91%, LME tin lost 0.19%, and LME nickel fell 1.16%. Precious metals: as of 11:46, COMEX gold fell 1.5% and COMEX silver dropped 4.6%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.53%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 7.64%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 5.47%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 4.87%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.88% to 2,519 points. As of 11:46 on May 15, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot prices and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 270 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,750 yuan/mt, down 2,020 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 105,645 yuan/mt, down 2,020 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front China: [Preview: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on May 18 to introduce measures to strengthen and optimize departure tax refund policies and expand inbound consumption] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 3:00 PM on Monday, May 18, 2026. Vice Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping, along with officials from the State Taxation Administration, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, will introduce measures to strengthen and optimize departure tax refund policies and expand inbound consumption, and answer questions from reporters. (Guoxin.com) [CAICT Launches AI Terminal Intelligence Grading Tests to Accelerate Implementation of New National Standards] Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the Ministry of Commerce, and other departments jointly released the national standard series "Artificial Intelligence Terminal Intelligence Grading" (GB/Z 177—2026), which clearly defines the intelligence levels of AI terminals and lays a solid foundation for building a safe, orderly, and efficient AI terminal ecosystem. CAICT is one of the primary drafting organizations of the standard series and possesses comprehensive detection qualifications and technical capabilities in product areas including smartphones, tablets, microcomputers, smart glasses, earphones, speakers, televisions, and automotive cockpits. The first round of AI terminal intelligence grading standard conformity detection has now been launched, and relevant enterprises are welcome to actively participate in testing to jointly promote the implementation of the standards and help enhance product intelligence levels. (CAICT) [PBOC Achieves Zero Injection and Zero Withdrawal for the Day, with a Net Withdrawal of 51 Billion Yuan for the Week] PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, zero injection and zero withdrawal were achieved for the day. This week, PBOC conducted 2.5 billion yuan of reverse repo operations. As 53.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, a net withdrawal of 51 billion yuan was achieved for the week overall. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose 0.17% to 99.04. Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that US retail sales continued to grow in April, but against the backdrop of rapidly rising energy prices, the market believed that consumer data was partly influenced by inflation-driven price increases, and actual consumption momentum may not have been as strong as the headline data suggested. Data showed that US retail sales rose 0.5% MoM in April, the lowest since January, in line with market expectations. The previously reported March figure was revised down to a gain of 1.6%. US consumer confidence had already fallen to a historic low in early May, and the pace of inflation exceeded wage growth for the first time in three years, raising market concerns that consumer spending could slow down significantly going forward. US Fed's Williams: Monetary policy is slightly restrictive. I see no reason to raise or cut interest rates at this point. US Fed Governor Barr: We are not in a recession, but job growth is weak. I have not yet decided what action to take at the June FOMC meeting. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 96.8%, while the cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut was 3.2%. The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged through July was 93.8%, with a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut and a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data) Data: The US May New York Fed Manufacturing Index, US April industrial production MoM, and China's April total electricity consumption YoY will be released today. Also noteworthy: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will deliver opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a discussion; Fed Governor Barr will speak on the balance sheet; the National Energy Administration will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Fed Chairman Powell's term will end; US President Trump will pay a state visit to China. Crude oil: As of 11:46, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.36% and Brent up 1.29%. Middle East conflicts and uncertainty over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz supported oil prices. US President Trump stated: "We don't need to open the Strait of Hormuz," adding that efforts were being made to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for regional countries. India's Ministry of External Affairs confirmed on the 14th that an Indian-flagged merchant vessel was attacked near the Omani coast close to the Strait of Hormuz, but all crew members were safe. The Ministry expressed regret in a statement that day over the continued targeting of merchant ships and seafarers. However, the statement did not mention the specific name of the attacked vessel or the identity of the attackers, only stating that all Indian crew members on board were safe. UK-based Windward maritime analytics company said on social media on the 14th that an Indian-flagged cargo ship sank after a suspected drone attack in Omani waters near the Strait of Hormuz, and all crew members had been successfully rescued. (Xinhua) According to retailers in Delhi on Friday, India raised gasoline and diesel prices by approximately 3 rupees per liter (about $0.03); this was the country's first fuel price increase in four years, aimed at offsetting part of the losses incurred from surging global oil prices. Affected by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and severe shipping disruptions triggered by the Iran war, global oil prices once surged to highs of over $120 per barrel before pulling back to around $100–105 per barrel. Currently, the retail price of diesel in Delhi was 90.67 rupees per liter, and the retail price of gasoline was 97.77 rupees per liter. Three state-owned enterprises — Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation — collectively controlled over 90% of more than 103,000 fuel stations across India, and these three companies typically adjusted diesel and gasoline retail prices in tandem. (Jin10 Data) In addition, Bank of Japan officials stated that prices of a wide range of commodities, including oil and chemical products, rose due to uncertainties surrounding the Middle East conflict and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The YoY increase in wholesale prices in April was the largest since May 2023. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 15 News: Metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.35%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.7%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc rose 0.2%. SHFE tin fell 1.33%. SHFE nickel fell 1.06%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.7%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.12%, rebar rose 0.34%. Stainless steel fell 0.8%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.2%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.72%, coke edged down slightly. Overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.7%. LME aluminum rose 0.21%, LME lead rose 0.4%. LME zinc rose 0.99%, hitting an intraday high of $3,633.5/mt, the highest since June 2022. LME tin fell 2.89%. LME nickel fell 1.17%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 6%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 3.52%. As of 7:15 AM on May 15, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate social financing in the first four months totaled 15.45 trillion yuan; new loans reached 8.59 trillion yuan; April M2 grew 8.6% YoY] PBOC data showed that, according to preliminary statistics, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in the first four months of 2026 was 15.45 trillion yuan, down 893 billion yuan YoY. Of this, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 8.5 trillion yuan (down 1.29 trillion yuan YoY); foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 103.6 billion yuan in RMB equivalent (up 213.4 billion yuan YoY); entrusted loans decreased by 94.1 billion yuan (down an additional 99.4 billion yuan YoY); trust loans increased by 300 million yuan (down 45.1 billion yuan YoY); undiscounted bankers' acceptances increased by 51.3 billion yuan (down 199.2 billion yuan YoY); net corporate bond financing was 1.5 trillion yuan (up 739.3 billion yuan YoY); net government bond financing was 4.45 trillion yuan (down 399 billion yuan YoY); domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 200.8 billion yuan (up 65.5 billion yuan YoY). In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 284.29 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Month-end outstanding RMB loans stood at 280.5 trillion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 490.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 610.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 119.9 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 8.99 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.67 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 5.01 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 142.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 193.5 billion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of foreign currency loans was $55.15 billion, up 3.4% YoY. In the first four months, foreign currency loans increased by $6.5 billion. PBOC data showed that at end-April, broad money (M2) balance was 353.04 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) balance was 114.58 trillion yuan, up 5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.75 trillion yuan, up 12.2% YoY. Net cash injection in the first four months was 653 billion yuan. [PBOC: To conduct 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on May 15 with a 6-month tenor] To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 15, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a tenor of 6 months (184 days), maturing on November 15, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.88. According to Wallstreetcn, US April retail sales posted the strongest gain in 8 months, confirming consumer resilience, but inflationary pressures continued to build. Combined with rising long-term Treasury yields, market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut have largely faded. US Fed Governor Barr stated that easing liquidity rules to shrink the central bank's balance sheet is a bad idea that could undermine the safety of the financial system. "There has been a lot of discussion recently about shrinking the size of the Fed's balance sheet to reduce our 'footprint' in the financial system," Barr said in prepared remarks for a conference hosted by the NYU Money Marketeers. "I believe shrinking the balance sheet is the wrong objective, and many of the proposals put forward to achieve it would weaken bank resilience, impede the normal functioning of money markets, and ultimately threaten financial stability," Barr said. "Some proposals would actually increase the Fed's 'footprint' in financial markets." Barr noted that allowing banks to reduce their liquidity holdings as a means of shrinking Fed assets could increase the risk that these institutions would need to turn to Fed liquidity facilities when in distress. He said, "The size of the Fed's balance sheet is not the right measure of its influence in financial markets," and in a system where the Fed creates reserves "at no cost," the real focus should be on the effectiveness of the Fed's monetary policy implementation. (Jin10 Data) According to Reuters, Milan formally submitted his resignation to the US Fed on Thursday local time, setting his departure date on or shortly before the day Waller is sworn in. Waller is expected to be sworn in as Fed Chairman within the coming days. In his resignation letter, Milan continued to warn that interest rates may be too high. He wrote that broader economic trends such as slowing population growth and deregulation would reduce inflation on their own, giving the Fed room to ease policy. He also argued that technical challenges in measuring inflation may cause inflation statistics to overstate actual levels. (Jin10 Data) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 93.8%, with a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike. Data: Today will see the release of the US May NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US April industrial production MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY, among other data. Also watch: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; FOMC permanent voter and NY Fed President Williams participates in a discussion; US Fed Governor Barr speaks on the balance sheet; the National Energy Administration releases total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends; US President Trump makes a state visit to China. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.99% and Brent up 0.91%. Market concerns over supply disruptions amid the US-Iran conflict persisted, supporting oil prices. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Iran's oil storage is full and Tehran will need to halt oil production. Following the US blockade on Iranian oil exports, the key question in this conflict is: how long can Iran store the oil it cannot export before running out of space. Some analysts believe Iran still has a few weeks of storage capacity, and Tehran has begun slowly cutting production to cope with the standoff. Bessent said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that over the past three days, Iran has been unable to load tankers at its main oil export terminal, Kharg Island, as the US blockade prevented tankers from entering or leaving the Persian Gulf. In the first month of the US blockade, the US military forced 70 vessels allegedly heading to or from Iranian ports to change course. (Jin10 Data) According to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Freight analyst Georgios Sakellariou stated: according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Goldman Sachs analyst Tallulah Adams noted that the oil market has entered a narrower trading range, with realized volatility over the past 5 days falling to the lowest level since the conflict began, and the market is largely in wait-and-see mode. Weak physical market signals suggest supply remains adequate for the May trading cycle, but Goldman Sachs also cautioned that the coming weeks will be critical as the summer peak demand season is about to arrive. (Wallstreetcn) Additionally, two industry sources told Reuters that a Gazprom natural gas processing plant in Russia's southern Astrakhan region suspended motor fuel production after a fire on May 13. The fire was caused by a drone strike. They said the plant suspended operations, including a stabilized condensate processing unit with an annual capacity of 3 million mt that produces gasoline and diesel. According to sources, restoring motor fuel production could take weeks to months. The second source said hydrogen sulfide treatment and sulfur recovery equipment were also damaged in the drone strike. Industry sources said the Astrakhan plant processed 1.8 million mt of stabilized natural gas condensate in 2024, producing 800,000 mt of gasoline, 600,000 mt of diesel, and 300,000 mt of fuel oil. (Jin10 Data)