SMM News, July 15: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE copper rising 0.57%, SHFE aluminum edging down, SHFE lead falling 1.8%, SHFE zinc up 0.45%, SHFE tin up 1.36%, and SHFE nickel down 0.43%. Furthermore, aluminum casting most-traded futures edged down, alumina most-traded rose 0.89%, lithium carbonate most-traded fell 2.33%, silicon metal most-traded fell 0.35%, and polysilicon most-traded futures fell 1.04%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 1.13%, rebar rose 1.24%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.09%, and stainless steel rose 0.76%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.12%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.1%. Overseas base metal market: As of 11:42, LME metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.28%, LME aluminum rose 0.49%, LME lead fell 0.32%, LME zinc rose 0.73%, LME tin rose 0.28%, and LME nickel edged up. Precious metals: As of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.8%, and COMEX silver fell 0.67%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.18%; SHFE silver most-traded rose 1.03%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded futures rose 2.35%, and palladium most-traded futures rose 3.6%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe shipping futures contract rose 2.78% to 2,572.5 points. As of 11:42 on July 15, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: High-quality copper was quoted at 80 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,205 yuan/mt, up 1,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,095 yuan/mt, up 1,085 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory ended a two-session rising streak and fell again today, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro Front Domestic: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): H1 GDP rose 4.7% YoY; national economy operated within a reasonable range; new momentum grew rapidly] The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that, according to preliminary estimates, H1 GDP reached 69,570.4 billion yuan, up 4.7% YoY at constant prices. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 3,152.2 billion yuan, up 3.7% YoY; the secondary industry was 25,047.3 billion yuan, up 3.9%; and the tertiary industry was 41,370.9 billion yuan, up 5.2%. By quarter, Q1 GDP grew 5.0% YoY and Q2 grew 4.3%. On a QoQ basis, Q2 GDP rose 0.9%. Overall, the national economy operated within a reasonable range in H1, with new quality productive forces cultivated and strengthened and high-quality development progressing toward new heights of quality. At the same time, we must recognize that external instabilities and uncertainties are mounting, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China remains pronounced, and the foundation for economic improvement still needs consolidation. In the next phase, we will adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, intensify counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, continue to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, enhance growth and revitalize existing assets, focus on building a strong Chinese market, accelerate the cultivation and strengthening of new momentum, step up efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity in the economy. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved a net injection of 911.5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 426.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations and 1,400 billion yuan of 6-month outright reverse repo operations today. With 15 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 900 billion yuan of outright reverse repos maturing today, the operations resulted in a net injection of 911.5 billion yuan on the day. US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index extended the previous trading day's decline, falling 0.11% to 100.83. Data: A key turning point signal emerged in US inflation. June CPI recorded its first MoM decline in six years, while core inflation was basically flat, prompting the market to dramatically scale back bets on a July rate hike by the US Fed. On Tuesday, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% YoY, below market expectations of 3.8% and a significant pullback from the prior reading of 4.2%. Core CPI rose 2.6% YoY, also below expectations of 2.8% and the prior reading of 2.9%. (Wall Street See) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed holding rates steady in July is 84.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%. For September, the probability of holding rates steady is 42.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 50%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 7.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Chairman Walsh stated that he places equal emphasis on the Fed's employment and inflation mandates—a point he has repeatedly stressed since assuming the role of Fed Chairman. "In the mandate you have given us, we do not favor one part over the other," Walsh told members of the House Financial Services Committee. "Price stability and full employment are not trade-offs. I am committed to achieving both. When later asked if he supported targeted measures to address the unemployment rate and employment opportunity gaps between Black and White Americans, Walsh stated: "The US must not leave anyone behind. Economic opportunity is critical to the trajectory of growth for the US over the next five to ten years, meaning every American needs the opportunity to be productive." (Jin10 Data APP) A CICC research note indicated that US June CPI fell 0.4% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis, with YoY growth pulling back to 3.5%; core CPI was flat MoM and up 2.6% YoY, both below market expectations. The decline in energy prices was the main driver of cooling inflation. Looking ahead, as tensions escalate again between the US and Iran, the outlook for energy inflation remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the AI inflation effect is gradually materializing, with upstream hardware supply-demand mismatch, rising prices for software and related products, and AI capex boosting aggregate demand all potentially making core inflation stickier. For policy, the cooling inflation data in June supports the Fed holding rates steady at its July meeting, but recent remarks by Waller suggest [1] the Fed is reassessing the possibility of a "preventive rate hike." We maintain our base case of no rate hikes for the year, but flag that the bar for hiking has already fallen. If one or two hotter-than-expected inflation prints emerge, it could push the Fed to further discuss rate hike options. A CITIC Securities research note stated that US June CPI came in below expectations across the board, retail gas prices fell, core services inflation was flat MoM, and the second-round inflation effect was minimal. CITIC Securities believes US inflation is not sticky, noting that headline CPI YoY has definitively passed its cycle peak and is expected to trend mildly downward in Q3, hit bottom in September, rise to a secondary peak around year-end, and then decline rapidly next March. CITIC Securities still expects the Fed to stay on hold for the full year, sees room for derivative-priced rate hike expectations to be revised further down, considers US Treasuries currently unsuitable for allocation-based opportunities—with short-dated bonds better than long-dated ones—and believes the US dollar index faces difficulty sustaining upward momentum but has support, while the technology-driven theme in US equities retains its appeal. On the data front: Today will see the release of figures including China's June total electricity consumption YoY, China's June total electricity consumption, the US June PPI annual rate, the US June PPI monthly rate, the US July New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, the Eurozone May industrial output MoM rate, Canada's May wholesale sales MoM rate, and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision as of July 15. Additionally, attention needs to be paid to: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on the state of the economy; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference to brief on the execution of monetary policy and financial statistics for H1 2026; the National Energy Administration releasing total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. Fed Governor Barr spoke on artificial intelligence at the Fed’s annual financial inclusion conference; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a fireside chat; Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivered remarks at the Fed’s annual financial inclusion conference; Fed Governor Bowman also spoke at the same conference; permanent FOMC voting member and New York Fed President Williams gave a speech; Fed Chair Warsh attended the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the Fed’s Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report; Bank of England Governor Bailey spoke; the Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers held a monetary policy press conference. ASML published its Q2 2026 financial report. Crude oil: As of 11:42, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 1.02% and Brent up 1.32%. Despite improved risk sentiment from cooling inflation, the crude oil market remains driven by geopolitics. The US announced the reinstatement of a naval blockade on vessels transiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, with escalating Middle East tensions supporting oil prices. Meanwhile, the US and European refined product markets are historically tight, heightened Middle East strains have fanned fuel supply concerns, and high oil prices continue to pressure consumers. Goldman’s Privorotsky believes Brent around $85 itself is manageable, the real story is in refined products, distillates rather than crude oil are the true inflation signal, and heating oil futures have hit new highs since the conflict erupted, highlighting tightness in the product market, with any further disruption disproportionately hitting inflation. (Wall Street CN) Additionally, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement on the 15th that as long as the US continues attacks on Iran, the region will not export “a drop of oil” or natural gas. (Xinhua) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 15: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets broadly rose, with only LME lead, SHFE aluminum, SHFE lead, and SHFE nickel declining together. SHFE lead led the declines with a 1.45% drop, while LME tin led the gains with a 2.39% increase. SHFE tin rose 1.45%, LME copper gained 0.9%, and the % changes for other metals were within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 1.08%, while cast aluminum main contract fell 0.11%. Overnight, ferrous metals collectively rose. Rebar and iron ore both gained around 0.8%, with rebar up 0.88% and iron ore up 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) rose 0.73%. Coking coal and coke saw coking coal rise 0.4% and coke rise 0.35%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 1.31% and COMEX silver rose 1.84%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.89% and SHFE silver rose 1.98%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 a.m. on July 15: >> Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front China: [China's H1 Imports and Exports Scale Surpassed 25 Trillion Yuan for First Time, up 16.9% YoY; Strong Foreign Trade Growth Momentum Expected to Continue in H2] The State Council Information Office held a press conference today (14th) to report on China’s foreign trade performance this year. At the conference, it was reported that China's foreign trade achieved double-digit growth in H1, maintaining a sound operational trend. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, imports and exports of related products showed strong momentum. In H1, imports and exports of computing hardware such as electronic components and computer parts reached 5.13 trillion yuan, up 56.6% YoY. Smart products like AI glasses, AI translators, and mechanical exoskeletons are iterating rapidly, with various innovative products constantly emerging. According to customs statistics, in H1, China's total goods trade import and export value was 25.47 trillion yuan, up 16.9% YoY. Of this, exports were 14.73 trillion yuan, up 13.4% YoY, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of growth; imports were 10.74 trillion yuan, up 22.1% YoY, with the growth rate 8.7 percentage points higher than that of exports. In June alone, imports and exports totaled 4.78 trillion yuan, up 24.2% YoY, marking 17 consecutive months of growth. From the export perspective, the product structure further optimized. In H1, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were 9.36 trillion yuan, up 20.1% YoY, accounting for 63.5% of total export value, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Exports of high-tech products reached 3.26 trillion yuan, up 39% YoY. (CCTV News) >> Click for Details SMM compiled import and export data for some metal industry products based on figures released by the General Administration of Customs, details as follows: >> Click for Detailed Import and Export Data US Dollar Side: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.38% to 100.93. The US inflation data released on Tuesday came in below expectations, leading traders to scale back bets on US Fed rate hikes. Data released by the US Labor Department on the 14th showed that, dragged down by falling energy prices, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase pulled back in June, though inflationary pressure remained significant. The data showed that while the US June CPI YoY increase slowed to 3.5% from May's 4.2%, it was still significantly above the US Fed's 2% inflation target. The Labor Department stated that the decline in energy prices was the biggest factor pulling back the CPI increase for the month, offsetting price increases in other areas like housing and food. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said inflationary pressure eased somewhat in June, but the slowing inflation trend may be short-lived as military confrontation between the US and Iran heats up again. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP) After June inflation data came in below expectations, the CME "FedWatch" tool showed that the probability of a Fed rate hike this month fell to 17%, compared to 42% yesterday. The June CPI data showed a 0.4% MoM decline and a 3.5% YoY increase, indicating a milder price trend than economists predicted. Even excluding the significant drop in oil prices last month, the inflation figures were better than expected. Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital noted, "This data exceeded our expectations, and even if it hasn't completely eliminated the possibility of a rate hike this month, it has significantly reduced that probability." According to FedWatch data, the market broadly expects at least one rate hike within the year. (Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report stated that the US June CPI was broadly lower than expected, retail oil prices fell, core services items showed zero MoM growth, and second-round inflation effects were minimal. CITIC Securities believes US inflation stickiness is weak, the headline CPI YoY has confirmed it passed its peak for this round, and Q3 will generally show a mild pullback, hitting bottom in September, before rising to a secondary high at year-end and rapidly declining next March. CITIC Securities still expects the US Fed to hold steady all year, sees further downside room for rate hike expectations priced into derivatives, believes US Treasuries are currently unsuitable for tactical allocation opportunities (short-end bonds are better than long-end bonds), thinks the US dollar index has difficulty surging sustainably but has support, and views the tech-driven theme in US equities as still attractive. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 42.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bps hike is 50%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bps hike is 7.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Side: Data to be released today include China’s Q2 GDP YoY rate, China’s June total retail sales YoY, China’s June industrial production above designated size YoY, China’s June total electricity consumption YoY, China’s June total electricity consumption, US June PPI YoY, US June PPI MoM, US July NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, Eurozone May industrial production MoM, Canada May wholesale sales MoM, and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of July 15. Additionally, the NBS will release its monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance and another press briefing on the implementation of H1 2026 monetary policy and financial statistics data. The National Energy Administration will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr will speak on AI at the Fed's annual Financial Inclusion Conference. 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Fed Governor Bowman will speak at the Fed's annual Financial Inclusion Conference. FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver remarks. Fed Chairman Walsh will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on the "Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report." BOE Governor Bailey will speak. The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and BoC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. ASML will release its Q2 2026 financial results. Crude Oil Side: Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic rose together, with WTI crude up 2.16% and Brent crude up 2.21%. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran heightened concerns about supply disruption risks. However, news last night indicated that US President Donald Trump abandoned his idea of imposing a 20% compensation fee on cargo transiting through the Strait of Hormuz just a day after it was widely criticized as impractical. (From Wall Street CN APP) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventories fell by 564,000 barrels, following a decline of 399,000 barrels the previous week. API Cushing crude oil inventories rose by 238,000 barrels last week, compared to a decrease of 69,000 barrels previously. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.664 million barrels (prior: -2.929 million barrels), while distillate inventories rose by 2.259 million barrels (prior: -1.801 million barrels). (From Wall Street CN APP) Foreign media reported, citing sources, that Iran had begun secretly moving oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days, before the escalation of hostilities and the US announcement that it would re-impose a blockade on Iranian ports. Vessel tracking data shows that over the past week, a total of six US-sanctioned very large crude carriers (VLCCs) sailed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off. These six tankers can collectively transport 12 million barrels of crude oil. These vessels, along with other Iran-linked ships, completed their voyages after the US revoked the license on July 7 that allowed Iran to temporarily sell crude oil. Besides these six Iranian VLCCs, a significant number of US-sanctioned vessels linked to Tehran have departed from the Strait of Hormuz since July 7. These ships are part of the 57 million barrels of crude oil that Iran successfully exported between the two rounds of US naval blockades. (Jin10 Data APP)

H1 2026 silver saw a sharp spike to 30,900 yuan/kg in January, then plunged 55% to 13,816 yuan/kg by June, driven by squeezed spot liquidity and Fed policy reversal from easing to hawkish. Supply grew steadily; PV silver demand fell 21% YoY. H2 outlook: wait for inflation signals and Fed pivot, silver likely remains under pressure.

★Macro★ 01 ★★ [State-owned Major Bank's 5-Year Personal Certificate of Deposit 'Reappears' with Annualized Interest Rate of 1.6%] Although over the past two years, mainstream major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks ceased issuing certificates of deposit with terms over 3 years. But just as H2 began, a state-owned major bank reintroduced them. On July 1, Bank of China announced on its official website that it would issue the first tranche of personal certificates of deposit for 2026, offering seven terms: 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year. As long-term certificates of deposit issued by nationwide commercial banks have largely disappeared from the market, the issuance by Bank of China this time means that 5-year certificate of deposit products from state-owned major banks 'reappear.' 02 ★★ [Central Bank: Net Injection of 200 Billion Yuan via Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) in June] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on its official website today the liquidity injection through various central bank tools for June 2026. Data showed that in June, net injection via MLF was 200 billion yuan, net injection via standing lending facility (SLF) was 0 yuan, and net injection via other structural monetary policy tools was -137.2 billion yuan. Meanwhile, in open market operations, in June, net injection via government bond trading in the open market was 10 billion yuan, net injection via 7-day reverse repo was 582.6 billion yuan, net injection via central treasury cash management was 0 yuan, and net injection via reverse repos of other tenors was 300 billion yuan. ★Industry and Downstream★ 01 ★★ [NDRC's Liu Gang Leads Team to China Iron and Steel Association for Work Survey] To gain an in-depth understanding of the steel industry's development, on June 29, Liu Gang, Deputy Director of the NDRC Price Monitoring Center, led a team to CISA to conduct a work survey, and held discussions with Diao Li, Deputy Secretary General and Director of the Information and Statistics Department of CISA, as well as Li Xiaochuan and Li Baojun, Deputy Directors of the Information and Statistics Department. The two sides, considering the new characteristics of steel industry development at this stage, conducted in-depth exchanges on aspects such as price trends across the industry chain's upstream and downstream, compilation of price indices, and optimization of monitoring indicators. 02 ★★ [2025 Annual Dual-Credit Calculation Results for Chinese Passenger Vehicle Enterprises Released] Four departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, recently jointly announced the 2025 average fuel consumption and NEV credit status of Chinese passenger vehicle enterprises. In 2025, a total of 108 passenger vehicle enterprises in China produced/imported 24.629 million passenger vehicles (including passenger NEVs, excluding export passenger vehicles), with an actual average fuel consumption under WLTC conditions of 3.38 liters per 100 kilometers, average carbon dioxide emissions of 80.22 grams per kilometer, positive fuel consumption credits of 53.553 million points, negative fuel consumption credits of 9.412 million points, positive NEV credits of 21.94 million points, and negative NEV credits of 1.599 million points. 03 ★★ [Changsha One Commercial-Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 165 Million Yuan] On July 2, Changsha auctioned one commercial-residential plot in Furong District, with a planned GFA of 28,109.20 sq m (commercial-residential ratio of 1:9), a plot ratio of 5, a starting price of 165 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 5,884 yuan per sq m. Finally, the local private enterprise Hunan Dayou Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 165 million yuan. 04 ★★ [Nanjing One Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 570 Million Yuan] On July 2, Nanjing auctioned one residential plot in the Qilin Area of Jiangning District, with a planned GFA of 56,779 sq m, a plot ratio of 2.4, a starting price of 570 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 10,041 yuan per sq m. Finally, Nanjing Science and Technology Innovation Investment Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 570 million yuan. 05 ★★ [South Korea Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Carbon Steel and Alloy Steel HRC Involving China] According to China Trade Remedies Information, on June 23, South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance issued Order No. 35, officially imposing anti-dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel HRC originating from China and Japan, with the duty rate for Chinese products ranging from 28.16% to 33.10%; meanwhile, it approved the price undertakings proposed by three Japanese enterprises and six Chinese enterprises, and will not impose anti-dumping duties on enterprises that comply with the price undertakings. The announcement took effect on the date of its issuance. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Launches Level-IV Emergency Response for Flood and Typhoon Prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong] According to meteorological forecasts, the tropical depression over the South China Sea is expected to develop into a typhoon on July 2, make landfall on the eastern coast of Hainan Island on the afternoon or evening of July 3, and then make a second landfall on the coast of Guangxi or northern Vietnam on the afternoon or evening of July 4. As a result, it is expected that from July 3 to 5, parts of Hainan Island, Guangdong, and Guangxi will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized areas seeing extremely heavy downpours. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Emergency Plan, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters decided to launch a Level-IV emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong at 12:00 on July 2, and dispatched a working group to Hainan for frontline guidance and assistance. ⭕ [US Treasuries Rise as Weak Employment Report Dampens Rate Hike Expectations] US Treasuries rose after a weaker-than-expected US employment report prompted traders to scale back expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Fed in the coming months. The two-year US Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to monetary policy changes, fell 6 basis points to 4.11%, while the 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.46%. Interest rate swaps showed that traders expected the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates at its meeting later this month to be around 20%, down from 33% before the data release. The market was pricing in fewer than two 25-basis-point rate hikes by March 2027. ⭕ [US June Nonfarm Payrolls Increased by 57,000, Far Below Market Expectations] US nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June (estimate: 113,000; prior: 172,000). Private payrolls rose by 49,000 (prior: 97,000; estimate: 107,000). Manufacturing payrolls increased by 3,000 (prior: a decrease of 2,000), matching expectations; the forecast range of 15 surveyed economists was a decline of 1,000 to an increase of 10,000. ⭕ [Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Exports Approach Pre-War Levels] Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports are near pre-war levels; as of Wednesday, the kingdom exported 6.3 million barrels per day over a six-day period. *This report is an original work and/or compilation work exclusively created by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 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[Bearish for Precious Metals] US Treasuries and the Dollar Stay High, Opportunity Cost Pressure Persists Currently, US Treasury yields remain in a high range overall, with the 10-year yield trading around 4.4%-4.5%. Real interest rates staying high continue to raise the holding cost of precious metals. Meanwhile, the US dollar index remains at a relatively strong level, putting passive pressure on precious metals. This forms a dual pressure pattern of “rising yields + stronger dollar”, limiting short-term upside room. Institutional capital continues to flow out, and the trend of ETF selling has not reversed. Global gold ETFs continue to see net outflows, with the holdings of the leading SPDR Gold ETF continuing to decline. Onshore gold ETFs in China also face sustained redemption pressure. The absence of incremental institutional buying leaves futures with insufficient rebound momentum. Every rise encounters concentrated profit-taking selling from previously trapped positions, and a trend-following rally lacks capital support. Tightening Trading Rules Combined with Off-Season Consumption Leave Short-Term Support Weak The SHFE raised the margin requirement for SHFE gold futures to 16% and expanded the daily price limit to 14% starting July 2, causing short-term highly leveraged speculative funds to deleverage and exit, and market liquidity to marginally contract. Meanwhile, the current June-August period is the traditional off-season for global gold jewelry consumption. During price declines, insufficient buying support tends to amplify fluctuations. [Bullish for Precious Metals] Warsh Confirms Inflation Cooling, Tightening Expectations Marginally Ease In a speech in Sintra on Wednesday evening, Warsh explicitly stated that “inflation upside risks in the US have eased over the past four weeks,” which directly alleviated market concerns about persistent sticky inflation. Precious metals prices rose in tandem during the speech. Overall market expectations for rate hikes cooled, providing fundamental support for precious metals’ valuation recovery. This is the core short-term bullish driver. US June ADP Employment Misses Expectations, Sending Signals of Cooling Labor Market US private sector employment increased by 98,000 in June according to ADP, below the market expectation of 118,000, marking the smallest gain since March. The previous figure was revised down to 122,000. The data show that job seekers’ search periods are lengthening and the pace of job creation is slowing. A cooling labor market will gradually transmit to wage growth and core services inflation, weakening the core rationale for the US Fed to maintain tightening and rate hikes. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June Was Overall Below Market Expectations The data showed a combination of “slowing expansion + rapid cost cooling,” with the Prices Paid Index plunging 9.1 points to 73, the largest one-month drop since July 2022, indicating that the pace of raw material cost increases has significantly slowed. Industrial inflation pressure rapidly released, strengthening the certainty of an inflation downturn and reserving room for a US Fed policy pivot. [Macro Summary] Current June ADP and PMI data missed expectations, releasing signals of cooling employment and inflation. Compounded by Warsh confirming Wednesday night that inflation had eased, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes experienced a marginal pullback. The remaining core data window this week is the June non-farm payrolls report and the initial jobless claims data for the week. The data results will directly verify the sustainability of the cooling trend and determine the extent of the revision of rate hike expectations.

[Geopolitical Risks Subside: How Will the Zinc Market React?] The Middle East conflict has recently shown clear signs of de-escalation. The market is now fully pricing in a U.S.-Iran agreement and the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. What impact will this have on the zinc market?

SMM June 11 news: Metal market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.79%. SHFE aluminum edged up 0.02%, while SHFE lead and SHFE tin fell slightly. SHFE zinc fell 1.98%. SHFE nickel fell 0.72%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.73%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.07%, hot-rolled coil edged up, stainless steel rose 0.17%, and rebar rose 0.19%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 0.44%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 2.34%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.81%. LME aluminum fell 1.09%, and LME lead fell 0.93%. LME zinc fell 2.19%. LME tin fell 0.34%. LME nickel fell 1.47%. Overnight, precious metals : Overnight, COMEX gold fell 4.49%, and COMEX silver fell 2.67%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 3.37%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.08%. Citibank expects that if the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continues into this summer, global gold purchasing demand may shrink further, and gold prices may fall to $3,500 per ounce by September. Currently, Citibank has lowered its three-month gold price target from $4,300 per ounce to $4,000 per ounce. CITIC Securities pointed out that the US CPI for May was broadly in line with expectations, with high oil prices continuing to push up the overall inflation rate, while core inflation was mild. CITIC Securities believes the risk of a second round of US inflation is low, and the overall CPI YoY may have peaked for this cycle. It is expected to gradually decline slowly until September, then rebound slightly, before pulling back rapidly in March next year. The US Fed is expected to keep its target rate unchanged this year, and the interest rate hike expectations priced in the derivatives market have room to be revised downwards. The key focus of next week's Fed meeting will be the new Chair, Mr. Walsh's, remarks on the current inflation situation and interest rate levels. For US Treasuries, trading opportunities are more suitable than allocation opportunities now, and short-term bonds are better than long-term bonds. The US dollar index finds support, and gold prices may need to wait for accommodative expectations to restart before breaking out of their predicament. As of 7:19 AM on June 11, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic: [Zheng Zhajie: Fully implement the "AI+" initiative and deeply address "involution-style" competition] On June 10, Zheng Zhajie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired an expert symposium on the economic situation, exchanging views with Cai Fang, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhang Li, President of the CCID Research Institute, and chief economists from some domestic and international securities firms, including BOC International. The discussion focused on analyzing and assessing the current economic situation, continuously expanding domestic demand, promoting high-level sci-tech self-reliance and strength and autonomous control of the industry chain, and stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations. The attending experts' views, opinions, and suggestions were heard. Zheng Zhajie stated that the NDRC would earnestly implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council by making best use of its macro policies and leveraging the integrated effects of existing and incremental policies; strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, new-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks to promote a close integration of investment in objects and investment in people, and effectively implementing the consumer goods trade-in policy; accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and fully implementing the "AI+" initiative; continuously strengthening reform and innovation to deeply advance the construction of a unified national market and deeply address "involution-style" competition; enhancing energy and resource security levels and implementing a comprehensive conservation strategy; effectively ensuring the basic wellbeing of the people and making every effort to promote employment for key groups; at the same time, promptly researching and reserving a batch of targeted and highly operational policy tools, ready to be introduced and implemented as needed, to continuously consolidate the foundation for sustained and stable economic improvement. It is hoped that the experts would provide more suggestions to contribute their wisdom and strength to promoting high-quality development. [Ministry of Commerce and seven other units issue "Several Measures to Promote the Integrated Development of Railways and Tourism and Expand Service Consumption"] It is proposed to strengthen the coordination and alignment of railway and tourism planning. Planning guidance should be enhanced. Compiling railway-related plans should encompass the developmental needs of the tourism industry, site planning and layout must be effectively executed, and the accessibility and convenience of tourism resources should be elevated. The compilation of tourism-related plans should coordinate the layout and development of cultural tourism resources and railway resources, promoting the integrated and mutually reinforcing development of railways and tourism. [NRDC Price Cost and Certification Center Conducts Survey at SPIC] On June 3, Cheng Gang, Deputy Director of the Price Cost and Certification Center of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), led a team to conduct a survey at State Power Investment Corporation Limited (SPIC). The two sides exchanged views on the operation of wind power and PV projects, as well as the development of the hydrogen-based energy industry. (NDRC Price Cost and Certification Center) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.09%, closing at 100.04. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% YoY in May, the highest level since early 2023 and in line with market expectations. This marked the first time in three years that CPI inflation breached the 4% mark. The main factor driving the overall inflation higher was the rise in energy prices triggered by the Iran war. The 0.5% MoM rise matched expectations and was slightly lower than the previous 0.6%. "New Fed wire" Nick Timiraos' analysis pointed out that on a three-month annualized basis, the overall CPI increase in May was as high as 8.2% ; the overall CPI rose 0.47% MoM, with an annualized rate of approximately 5.8%, pushing the 12-month increase to 4.2%, a three-year high. Core CPI rose 2.9% YoY in May , matching expectations and edging up from the previous 2.8%; the MoM increase was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3% and a significant slowdown from the previous 0.4%. Core inflation was mild, but US real wages have already seen their first YoY negative growth since April 2023, worsening the situation for consumers. Furthermore, multiple Wall Street institutions believe that while this CPI data reinforces the "higher for longer" logic, it is not enough to trigger an interest rate hike. Market bets on the Fed resuming rate hikes have risen, but mainstream institutions still tend to believe the Fed will stay on hold in the coming months. (Wall Street Insights) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 98.4%, with a 1.6% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. The probability for the Fed to keep rates unchanged through July is 89.1%, with a 9.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 1.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stated on Wednesday that BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalized and is expected to remain in hospital for about two weeks, therefore he will miss the monetary policy meeting on June 15-16 but is expected to attend the meeting on July 30-31. BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will chair the June 15-16 monetary policy meeting, and Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a press conference after the June meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today's releases include the Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate up to June 11, the Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate up to June 11, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, and the US May PPI YoY and MoM rates. Also, focus on: the Ministry of Commerce holds its second routine press conference of June; the ECB announces its interest rate decision; ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US crude up 4.14% and Brent crude up 3.88%. The Iran situation escalated abruptly, causing crude oil prices to surge. Additionally, a sharp decline in Cushing crude oil inventories and significant withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) once fueled an acceleration in the rise of oil prices. Trump subsequently stated on social media that over 100 million barrels of crude oil are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which slightly capped the gains. (Wall Street Insights) The US Department of Energy (DOE) stated on Wednesday local time that the US is seeking to lend up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to energy companies to help lower fuel prices. This plan is part of the previous agreement to release 172 million barrels from the SPR. To date, the US has lent approximately 133 million barrels of crude oil under this agreement. In March, after the US and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28, the US reached an agreement with about 30 member countries of the International Energy Agency to jointly release approximately 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to help stabilize the international oil market. Currently, the US SPR inventory stands at 349.2 million barrels, the lowest level since August 2023. Enterprises borrowing crude oil must return an equivalent amount of crude oil plus pay a premium of up to 24% in extra crude oil. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM, June 10: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market weakened across the board. SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE tin dropped 1.89%, SHFE nickel lost 2.29%, SHFE copper edged down 0.33%, SHFE aluminum declined 0.85%, and SHFE zinc slipped 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.11%, the most-traded alumina contract gained 3.21%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract added 0.53%, the most-traded silicon metal contract increased 2%, while the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.63%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.59%, rebar added 0.13%, HRC edged lower, and stainless steel fell 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract dropped 3.13%, and the most-traded coke contract declined 1.35%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper edged up 0.06%, LME aluminum fell 1.03%, LME lead dropped 0.38%, LME zinc declined 0.24%, LME tin lost 0.92%, and LME nickel slipped 0.36%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.99%, touching an intraday low of $4,195.5/oz, while COMEX silver dropped 1.82%. In domestic precious metals, the most-traded SHFE gold contract declined 3.79%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract slumped 6.79%. Ilya Spivak, global macro head at Tastylive, noted that the real drivers lie in shifting expectations around US Fed policy, rising yields, and a stronger US dollar. "I think these factors are all weighing on gold," he said. Spivak added that if gold breaks below the $4,100 mark, support levels would fundamentally change, and by the end of the year, we may be looking at the next threshold of $3,500. (Jin10 Data APP) Meanwhile, by the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 5.43%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 2.77%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container freight futures contract climbed 3.2% to 3,993 points. As of 11:39 on June 10, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated in the 24,575-24,745 yuan/mt range, Shuangyan was mainly transacted at 24,675-24,835 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream deals were at 24,505-24,675 yuan/mt. In early trading, the market quoted premiums of 20-30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against the futures contract yet... Macro Front China side: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): May CPI Rose 1.2% YoY, PPI Rose 3.9% YoY, with PPI Continuing to Increase] NBS data showed that in May 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% YoY. Specifically, urban CPI rose 1.3% YoY, while rural CPI rose 1.1% YoY; food prices fell 1.7% YoY, while non-food prices rose 1.9% YoY; consumer goods prices rose 1.6% YoY, while services prices rose 0.8% YoY. In the January–May average, national CPI rose 1.0% YoY. In May, national CPI edged down 0.1% MoM. In May 2026, China’s national producer price index (PPI) rose 3.9% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The industrial producer purchasing price index rose 5.8% YoY and 1.3% MoM. In the January–May average, PPI rose 1.0% YoY, while the purchasing price index rose 1.6% YoY. Within the purchasing price index in May, price increases were led by non-ferrous metals and wires (22.0%), chemical raw materials (11.8%), fuels and power (10.0%), textile raw materials (2.5%), and ferrous metals (0.3%); meanwhile, declines were seen in building materials and non-metallic products (-5.5%) and agricultural and sideline products (-1.6%). Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on the CPI and PPI data for May 2026. The PBOC conducted a 159-billion-yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. No reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index slipped 0.01% to 99.94. Renewed conflict between the US and Iran drove up both the dollar and oil prices, exacerbating market concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes. Markets are awaiting key US inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. (Jinshi Data APP) At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data. This is also the most closely watched heavyweight inflation data ahead of the new Fed Chair Warsh's policy rate meeting next week. According to forecasts, four institutions, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, project the overall CPI YoY for May to be in the 4.17%–4.3% range, all above April’s 3.81% . However, their MoM core CPI forecasts are generally below market consensus. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 1.8%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July stands at 85.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 12.6%, and that of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.6%. CSC Financial pointed out that, in the short term, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike remains low, and the market's concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, built on assumptions of sticky US inflation and a persistently hot labor market. CME FedWatch data shows that markets outside China expect the most likely Fed rate hike to begin at the end of October 2026. The current global liquidity tightening and market adjustment represent a front-running reaction to expectations for a Fed rate hike in Q4. For China’s bond market, the increase in expectations of Fed tightening is not a negative factor. China’s bond market is relatively independent and has a relatively small correlation with US Treasuries. Moreover, given the ample liquidity in China, the expected tightening of liquidity outside China and the adjustment in equity markets may not rule out the possibility of driving capital into the bond market, supporting current levels of long-dated bonds. Going forward, the 10-year Chinese government bond yield is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 1.70% mark; a break below 1.70% would still require the emergence of incremental domestic information. Data Releases: Today, the following data will be released: US May unadjusted CPI YoY, US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision due June 10, and China May M2 money supply YoY (pending). In addition, the following should be watched: the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision announcement; and a monetary policy press conference by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers. Crude Oil: As of 11:39, both oil benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.94% and Brent up 0.98%. Renewed supply concerns stemming from the re-erupting conflict in the Middle East, together with declining US crude oil inventories, have provided support to oil prices. Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ended June 5: -9.119 million barrels (expected -3.421 million, prior -6.757 million). US API gasoline inventories for the week ended June 5: -1.191 million barrels (expected -614,000, prior 3.454 million). (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday local time that, due to the loss of over 11 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the Middle East caused by the conflict, major consuming countries are drawing down inventories at an unprecedented pace to fill the supply gap, and OECD oil inventories are heading towards their lowest levels since at least 2003. EIA stated that, under its current assumption that shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before early 2027, total OECD oil inventories will fall to just below 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 10 news: Metal markets: The domestic base metals market mostly fell overnight. SHFE copper fell 0.34%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.67%, and SHFE lead fell 0.4%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 1.1%. SHFE nickel fell 1.34%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.68%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract closed flat at 22,995 yuan/mt. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.26%, HRC flat at 3,360 yuan/mt, stainless steel down 0.69%, and rebar up 0.19%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 0.58%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 0.38%. On the overseas metals market overnight, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.23%. LME aluminum fell 2.08%, and LME lead fell 0.38%. LME zinc rose 0.33%. LME tin rose 0.16%. LME nickel fell 2.2%. Overnight precious metals market : Overnight COMEX gold fell 1.8%, and COMEX silver fell 4.56%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 1.51%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 4.06%. Bob Haberkorn, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures, stated: "Traders are slightly uneasy about the current market situation... A broad risk-off mode has taken hold across all markets. I believe this risk-off sentiment is what drove gold prices down." Haberkorn added: "Until the US Fed provides clearer guidance, gold and silver prices remain under downward pressure." (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at Saxo Bank stated that gold futures prices closed below their 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, following last Friday's non-farm payrolls report and a broad deterioration in risk sentiment that also weighed on stock markets. The combination of a resilient US economy and rising inflation expectations is creating a challenging environment for gold, overshadowing long-term supportive factors such as central bank purchases, fiscal concerns, and reserve diversification. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:19 on June 10, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Guangdong: Over 3 million charging facilities to be built province-wide by the end of 2027, meeting the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs] The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued the "Guangdong Province EV Charging Facility High-Quality Development Action Plan." The plan proposes to build a high-quality charging facility system where super-charging, fast charging, and slow charging complement each other by continuously innovating application scenarios, improving charging networks, enhancing charging efficiency, optimizing service quality, and innovating the industrial ecosystem. This aims to promote the balanced development of charging facilities in eastern, western, and northern Guangdong alongside the Pearl River Delta region, and facilitate the wider purchase and use of EVs. By the end of 2027, the province will have cumulatively built over 3 million charging facilities to meet the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs; the province will achieve "super-charging coverage in every county," with the number of super-charging stations no fewer than the number of gas stations. (Jinshi Data APP) [CPCA: Retail sales in China's domestic narrow PV market reached 1.51 million units in May 2026] According to the latest retail sales statistics from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales in China's domestic narrow passenger vehicle (PV) market reached 1.51 million units in May 2026, down 22.1% YoY, but up 9.2% MoM. Cumulative sales from January to May totaled 7.099 million units, down 19.5% YoY. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.95. Data: The weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending May 23 was 29,000, compared to the previous figure of 35,750. Jay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, stated that the US May headline CPI YoY rate is expected to jump from 3.8% to 4.2%, which would be the highest level since March 2023. But the real concern isn't the headline number; it's the potentially entrenched "sticky" items like housing, insurance, and services. These categories could keep inflation persistently above the US Fed's comfort zone, as they may remain elevated for longer. Woods noted that high inflation driven by gasoline is typically less worrying, whereas sustained price increases in housing and services could be a trend that takes time to reverse. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 1.8%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged through July is 85.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point hike at 12.6% and a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 1.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) China Securities pointed out that in the short term, the probability of a US Fed interest rate hike remains low, and market concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, based on assumptions of sticky domestic US inflation and a persistently hot job market. CME FedWatch data indicates that the most likely timing for a Fed rate hike expected by markets outside China begins in late October 2026. The current tightening of global liquidity and market adjustments represent a front-running reaction to expectations of a Q4 Fed rate hike. Regarding the domestic bond market, increased expectations for Fed tightening are not bearish. China's bond market is relatively independent and has a small correlation with US Treasuries. Furthermore, given ample domestic liquidity, the anticipated tightening of overseas liquidity and adjustments in equity markets could potentially drive capital flows into the bond market, supporting the current level of long-term bonds. Subsequently, China's 10-year government bond yield is expected to continue oscillating around the 1.70% level; a break below 1.70% still requires the emergence of new incremental information from domestic sources. Data: Today will see the release of China's May CPI YoY, the US May unadjusted CPI YoY, the US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, the US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, the US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of June 10, and China's May M2 money supply YoY (date TBD), among other data points. Also, attention should be paid to: the Bank of Canada's announcement of its interest rate decision; and the monetary policy press conference held by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with US crude oil down 2.85% and Brent crude oil down 2.03%. Oil prices were volatile on Tuesday. Trump stated earlier in the day that negotiations with Iran were "in the final stages of a very, very good deal," pushing Brent crude lower. However, Trump subsequently posted on social media stating that Iran had shot down a US Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz and declared "the US must respond," causing oil prices to jump immediately. Iranian officials further warned afterward that "foreign military forces near Iran face risks," briefly lifting oil prices further. Despite this, crude oil closed lower. (Wall Street CN) Data: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 5 fell by 9.119 million barrels, compared to an expected draw of 3.421 million barrels, with the prior figure showing a draw of 6.757 million barrels. The US API gasoline inventory for the week ending June 5 fell by 1.191 million barrels, compared to an expected draw of 614,000 barrels, with the prior figure showing a build of 3.454 million barrels. (Jinshi Data APP) The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated on Tuesday local time that due to crude oil production losses exceeding 11 million barrels per day in the Middle East caused by the Iran war, major consumer nations are drawing down inventories to bridge supply shortfalls at an unprecedented rate. Consequently, oil inventories among OECD members are heading toward their lowest levels since at least 2003. The EIA stated that under its current assumptions, where maritime shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before the beginning of 2027, total oil inventories held by OECD member nations will fall to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM News, May 27: Metals market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals rose, while SHFE copper edged down. SHFE aluminum rose 0.8%. SHFE lead rose 0.33%, SHFE zinc fell 0.72%. SHFE tin rose 0.63%. SHFE nickel rose 1.91%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.52%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.96%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.09%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.47%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 2.17%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.19%, rebar fell 0.69%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.44%, and stainless steel rose 1.49%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.77%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.6%. LME aluminum rose 0.39%. LME lead rose 0.05%. LME zinc rose 0.4%. LME tin rose 1.24%. LME nickel rose 0.32%. Precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.08%, COMEX silver rose 0.63%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.05%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.73%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.15%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.98%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.77%, closing at 2,949 points. As of 11:38 on May 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Cargo and Fundamentals Alumina: SMM statistics show that the scale of alumina projects under construction and under planning in Guinea has exceeded... Macro Front China: [NBS: From January to April, profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 18.2%; non-ferrous metals sector profits surged 117.8%] NBS data showed that from January to April, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 2.44 trillion yuan, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April, the mining sector posted profits of 361.84 billion yuan, up 26.0% YoY; the manufacturing sector posted profits of 1.80 trillion yuan, up 20.4%; and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector posted profits of 272.01 billion yuan, down 1.9%. From January to April, profitability of major industries was as follows: non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (up 1.2x YoY), computer, communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (up 1.1x), chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing (up 73.4%), coal mining and washing (up 21.0%), textile (up 11.2%), petroleum and natural gas extraction (up 8.1%), petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing (turned from loss to profit), general equipment manufacturing (down 0.6%), electricity and heat production and supply (down 2.5%), special equipment manufacturing (down 7.2%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (down 11.4%), agricultural and sideline food processing (down 11.8%), automobile manufacturing (down 16.8%), non-metallic minerals products (down 50.7%), and ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (down 51.5%). [PBOC Conducts 177.6 Billion Yuan in Open Market Reverse Repo Operations with Net Injection of 127.6 Billion Yuan in a Single Day] The PBOC conducted 177.6 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 50 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 99.1. According to Nikkei, Fed's Kashkari stated that the US Fed may implement a "series" of interest rate hikes in response to inflation concerns triggered by the Middle East situation. During the late-April FOMC meeting, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Kashkari and two other officials dissented against the decision to include language in the Fed's statement hinting at future monetary easing. In a written interview, Kashkari said: "I think the next rate adjustment could be an interest rate cut, or it could be a rate hike." He used this to express his differing views. Kashkari said the outcome would depend on inflation trends, which depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon or remain effectively closed due to further damage to infrastructure in the region, the latter of which would exacerbate the global energy shortage. Kashkari said the concern was that long-term inflation expectations of enterprises and households "could become unanchored." He said the FOMC "may well need to respond forcefully," and rate hikes, or even a series of rate hikes, could be necessary measures. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.2%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 88.6%, with an 11.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that the resilience of the global economy is being tested by the Middle East conflict, while a glimmer of hope for the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has emerged. The US economy is likely to continue growing mildly but unevenly this year, the pace of the EU's weak recovery is being delayed, and Japan's private-sector demand is inevitably subject to disruptions from energy shortages. High oil prices are already pushing up global inflation, with headline inflation rates in Europe and the US likely to fluctuate at highs this year, while Japan's headline inflation rate may continue its mild performance. The US Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year, while potential rate hikes by the European and Japanese central banks are imminent, and the "unrestrained" fiscal stances of Japanese and European political circles could constitute a source of market risk this year. We maintain our view that US equities will outperform US Treasuries and the US dollar index will find support, while gold prices are expected to break out of their current range as tail risks to inflation dissipate. Other currencies: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, opting to continue observing the impact of the global energy shock on domestic consumption and medium-term inflation. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. The RBNZ's latest projections show a rising likelihood of at least two 25bp rate hikes before year-end. In its post-meeting statement, the RBNZ said: "Taken together, the OCR will likely need to be raised sooner and by more than projected in the February Monetary Policy Statement." "The pace of hikes will depend on the relative impact of persistent wage and pricing behavior versus weakening economic activity on medium-term inflation pressures." Following the statement, NZD/USD rose. (Jin10 Data) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo said vigilance is needed regarding the impact of surging oil prices on underlying inflation trends, but did not clearly signal how this factor would influence next month's policy meeting outcome. Ueda said on Wednesday: "Japan's experience shows that oil price shocks are never just oil price shocks; they actually test the entire inflation mechanism." Reviewing the impact of oil crises since the 1970s, he noted: "We are in fact experiencing the fifth oil price shock." "If a temporary shock alters wages, inflation expectations, and corporate pricing behavior, it may evolve into persistent inflation." Ueda did not directly signal the future policy path, but as his remarks reflected concerns over the impact of high oil prices, markets may further strengthen speculation about the prospect of a rate hike at the BoJ's June meeting. Overnight swap market pricing shows traders currently assign roughly a 75% probability to a 25bp rate hike by the BoJ next month. (Jin10 Data) Australia's April core inflation rate remained above the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range, further reinforcing market expectations that the RBA will maintain its hawkish stance after consecutive rate hikes this year. Data on Wednesday showed the closely watched core inflation gauge—the annual trimmed mean inflation rate excluding volatile items—rose 3.4% YoY, in line with economists' expectations. The RBA targets keeping inflation near the midpoint of its 2%-3% target band. Interest rate swap markets currently price the probability of another rate hike in August at around 50%, down from 64% before the data release. Under the dual pressure of high borrowing costs and surging fuel prices driven by the Iran war, the Australian economy is beginning to show signs of weakness. The unemployment rate in April rose to a four-and-a-half-year high, while approximately one-third of enterprises reported declining revenue over the past four weeks, and half reported rising operating costs. The market widely expects that after raising rates at all three meetings earlier this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in June. Sue-Ellen Luke, head of price statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, said: "Automotive fuel prices currently remain 23.5% higher than before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. The impact of rising oil prices is also reflected in goods and services with higher transportation and logistics costs." (Jin10 Data) Data: Today will see the release of the RBNZ interest rate decision as of May 27, Switzerland's May ZEW Investor Confidence Index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9, and the US May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivering a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the BOJ; the RBNZ releasing its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBNZ Governor Breman holding a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:38, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 2.03% and Brent down 1.75%. Oil prices fell in Asian early trading as traders weighed the prospects of a US-Iran deal. Front-month Brent crude declined. Despite a resurgence in hostilities, hopes remain for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran signaled that the attacks would not derail negotiations, while US Secretary of State Rubio said it would take a few days to finalise a potential deal. Uncertainty remains high. Kieran Tomkins of Capital Economics noted that while crude oil options data suggest investors expect prices to pull back over the next three months, their conviction is unusually low. He said options indicate investors see a swift resumption of supply through the strait as the most likely outcome, but their implied expectations suggest a 37% probability that oil prices will exceed $100 per barrel in three months. (Zhitong Finance) On the evening of May 26 local time, the Public Relations Department of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy announced that over the past 24 hours, 25 vessels including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz with permission, under the coordination and security guarantee of the IRGC Navy. Meanwhile, the IRGC Navy stated that it is exercising "effective and authoritative" control over the Strait of Hormuz, and any act of aggression will be met with a severe response. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►