Next week, key macroeconomic data will include the US June core PCE price index y/y, the US July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading, and China's July official manufacturing PMI, with the major event being the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision. With only a few days until the Fed meeting, the market remains deeply divided over whether the Fed will hike rates this month, a situation rarely seen in recent years. The market widely expects a high probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, though attention still needs to be paid to the policy signals from the meeting and the post-meeting statement. Meanwhile, the US reimposition of reciprocal tariffs and the escalating US-Iran conflict, together with rising energy costs such as crude oil, have heightened market concerns over the global economic outlook. LME lead side, after a surge in LME lead inventory outside China the previous week, LME lead cancelled warrants increased significantly this week, up nearly 30,000 mt WoW. Geopolitical tensions outside China, rising crude oil prices, and shipping constraints have pushed up lead prices from the cost side. At the same time, expectations of lead consumption growth in the Southeast Asian market persist, which will provide some support for the lead market, but high lead ingot inventory pressure will still limit the upside room for lead prices. Next week, LME lead is expected to trade at $1,875-1,935/mt. SHFE lead side, as August approaches, the market has expectations for the traditional peak season for lead-acid batteries, but actual consumption so far has been disappointing. While smelter production has been steady to slightly higher, lead ingot inventory faces further accumulation pressure. Currently, lead ingot inventory is mainly concentrated at smelter warehouses. Going forward, attention should be paid to the potential shift from invisible to visible inventory, which could continue to weigh on lead prices. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 15,550-15,950 yuan/mt. Spot lead price forecast: 15,500-15,750 yuan/mt. Consumption side, demand in the lead-acid battery market remains weak. Downstream enterprises remain cautious in procurement, with just-in-time procurement still dominant. Supply side, primary and secondary lead smelters are seeing mixed production adjustments. Spot market supply is ample, and spot cargoes are generally trading at a discount. With new monthly long-term contracts set to begin execution next week, the spot market discount structure may be hard to improve significantly.

Nickel prices extended their upward trend this week. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract posted a "five-day winning streak" on its daily chart, decisively breaking through the 133,000 yuan/mt level and holding above it, with a weekly gain of over 2%. LME nickel rose in tandem to $17,500/mt, hitting a near one-month high. The drivers behind the nickel price rally remained the "Indonesia export control policy + Strait of Hormuz sulfur crisis + continuous LME inventory destocking." In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 131,440 yuan/mt this week, up 2,250 yuan/mt WoW. The premium for Jinchuan refined nickel weakened continuously this week, falling to 1,500 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel was quoted at a discount between -300 and -500 yuan/mt. As futures prices continued to rebound, downstream purchasing interest remained low and was limited to just-in-time procurement. Overall spot market transactions were relatively sluggish. On the macro front, geopolitical tensions remained elevated this week. The US military launched another strike on Iran, and President Trump stated he was "seriously considering" restarting large-scale combat operations against Iran. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded, the difficulty of restoring Middle East sulfur supply will increase. Policy expectations for the US Fed's July FOMC meeting became clearer. The latest CME FedWatch Tool data showed a 65.3% probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the July meeting, versus a 34.7% chance of a 25bp hike, with a consensus forming for staying pat in July. The suppressive pressure from the macro front on non-ferrous metals marginally eased. Inventory side, as for inventories, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory stood at around 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 130 kt, reflecting a buildup of approximately 1,800 mt WoW. LME's five consecutive days of destocking this week offered a positive signal, though absolute levels remained at historical highs. If the destocking trend persists, the foundation for a nickel price rebound will become more solid. The US-Iran conflict continues and could escalate, leaving sulfur supply risks in place, and the quantitative magnitude of supplementary RKAB quotas remains the key factor behind the subsequent nickel price trend. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt.

Analysis of China's Platinum and Palladium Import Market in H1 2026 In H1 2026, China's imports of platinum and palladium showed divergent trends. Imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder continued steady growth, up about 17.8% YoY cumulatively in H1, while imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder surged, up 116% YoY cumulatively in H1. Overall, imports of platinum group metals maintained resilience, driven by industrial demand from glass fiber and hydrogen energy, while the surge in palladium imports was closely tied to factors including a low base, arbitrage on the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets, and a policy window for Russian palladium trade. H2 trends will depend on global mine supply, changes in automotive and new energy demand, the ongoing impact of international geopolitics on Russian palladium trade, and arbitrage opportunities between Chinese and overseas markets. June Imports of Unwrought Platinum and Platinum Powder Up 2.5% MoM H1 Cumulative Imports Up 17.8% YoY In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder were 10.67 mt, up 2.5% MoM and up 27.9% YoY; H1 cumulative imports were 48.18 mt, up 17.8% YoY. In terms of trade mode, imports of unwrought platinum were mainly via Ordinary Trade, accounting for over 90%. By source, South Africa remained the top supplier, followed by Russia, Zimbabwe, etc. As the world's largest platinum producer, South Africa's mine supply situation significantly impacts China's imports. Since 2026, power shortages in South Africa have eased somewhat and mine expansions have advanced, but aging mines and insufficient capital expenditure still constrain supply elasticity, keeping overall supply rigid. On the demand side, the main reasons supporting the growth in platinum imports were strong demand from the glass and glass fiber industry, where platinum demand surged 83% YoY to 12 mt, driving overall industrial demand up 9% YoY; and the continued expansion of platinum demand from the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry, with PEM electrolyzers, fuel cell vehicles, etc. becoming core growth drivers. In H1 2026, platinum prices were under pressure and consolidating overall. Affected by the US Fed's hawkish stance, a stronger US dollar index, and concerns over global economic growth, the most-traded NYMEX platinum futures contract fluctuated in the $1,930–2,070/oz range in late May, while the most-traded GFEX platinum futures contract consolidated around 485 yuan/g. High and volatile prices led to strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream consumers, sluggish spot trading, and a phased slowdown in the pace of imports. H2, as global platinum inventories continue to destock and electronics & hydrogen energy projects accelerate, China's platinum imports are expected to maintain mild growth, though caution is needed regarding the suppression of industrial demand by a macroeconomic downturn. June Imports of Unwrought Palladium and Palladium Powder Up 17.6% MoM H1 Cumulative Imports Double YoY In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder were 4.75 mt, up 17.6% MoM and up 114% YoY; H1 cumulative imports were 26.97 mt, up 116% YoY. By trade mode, unwrought palladium imports were also dominated by Ordinary Trade. By import source, Russia and South Africa were the main suppliers. According to China Customs sub-item data for May 2026, China imported 1.93 mt of palladium from Russia and 1.89 mt from South Africa that month, with the two countries together accounting for over 85%. The sharp surge in palladium imports was mainly driven by: first, a low base in the year-ago period – monthly palladium imports in H1 2025 mostly ranged between 1 and 3 mt, creating a significant low base effect; second, in March–April 2026, with the US Commerce Department’s final anti-dumping determination on Russian unwrought palladium approaching, some traders rushed to import Russian palladium ahead of the final USITC ruling and tariff implementation, and China’s palladium imports in April hit a multi-year monthly record; third, substantial import arbitrage opportunities emerged in Q1, and arbitrage players locked in overseas supplies through import channels and sold on the futures market, leading to heavy warrant generation and boosting domestic spot palladium supply. Yet the palladium market is still under fundamental pressure. Globally, automotive catalysts account for as much as 83% of palladium consumption, while vehicle electrification continues to exert long-term pressure on gasoline-vehicle catalyst demand. Palladium’s core demand faces structural contraction risks, and mounting global growth concerns may push palladium into a structural surplus cycle. On the supply side in May 2026, Nornickel’s platinum and palladium production fell sharply in Q1 due to western sanctions, which provided some support to palladium’s price floor but was insufficient to reverse the weak demand landscape. Looking to H2, as the impact of the USITC final ruling is gradually digested and earlier concentrated cargo arrivals are absorbed by the market, palladium imports are expected to pull back from the high levels seen in Q2. For the full year, palladium imports will still maintain relatively high YoY growth, but are likely to pull back MoM in H2. H2 Outlook Overall, China’s platinum and palladium imports in H1 2026 showed a pattern of “stable platinum, strong palladium.” Platinum imports stayed resilient, supported by demand from glass fiber and hydrogen energy, and are expected to maintain mild growth in H2; palladium imports surged sharply on the back of the trade policy window and price spreads between Chinese and overseas markets, but growth is likely to slow marginally in H2 as the policy impact fades and structural demand-side pressures emerge. The following factors warrant close attention in H2: 1. Mine supply: the impact of South Africa’s electricity situation and mine capital expenditure on platinum supply, and the effect of changes in Nornickel’s output on palladium supply; 2. Trade policy: the impact of the anti-dumping case and sanctions on Russian palladium on the pace of China’s palladium imports; 3. End-use demand: the boost to real platinum and palladium demand from domestic vehicle production and sales, the implementation of hydrogen energy projects, and technology roadmap shifts in the glass and glass fiber industries; 4. Price spreads and the futures market: the influence of price spreads between Chinese and overseas markets and GFEX platinum and palladium futures delivery conditions on the import window.

Analysis of China's Platinum and Palladium Imports in H1 2026 In H1 2026, China's platinum and palladium imports diverged. Imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder maintained steady growth, with the cumulative H1 increase standing at roughly 17.8% YoY; imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder surged significantly, with the cumulative H1 increase reaching 116% YoY. Overall, PGM imports remained resilient, driven by industrial demand from glass fiber, hydrogen energy, and other sectors, while the spike in palladium imports was closely tied to a low base, arbitrage on the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets, and a policy window for Russian palladium trade. The H2 trajectory warrants attention to global mine supply, shifts in automotive and new energy demand, the ongoing impact of international geopolitics on Russian palladium trade, and the arbitrage space between domestic and overseas markets. Imports of Unwrought Platinum and Platinum Powder Up 2.5% MoM in June Cumulative H1 Total Up 17.8% YoY In June 2026, China’s imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder totaled 10.67 mt, up 2.5% MoM and up 27.9% YoY; the cumulative H1 import volume reached 48.18 mt, up 17.8% YoY. By trade mode, imports of unwrought platinum were dominated by Ordinary Trade, accounting for over 90%. By import source, South Africa remained the top supplier, followed by Russia, Zimbabwe, and others. As the world’s largest platinum producer, South Africa’s mine supply situation significantly affects China's import volumes. Since the start of 2026, power shortages in South Africa have eased somewhat, and mine expansions have advanced, but aging mines and inadequate capital expenditure continued to suppress supply elasticity, keeping overall supply rigid. Support for platinum import growth from the demand side stemmed from two main factors: First, robust platinum demand from the glass fiber industry, where platinum demand surged 83% YoY to 12 mt, driving overall industrial demand up 9% YoY; second, the continued expansion of platinum demand from the hydrogen energy and fuel cell sectors, with PEM electrolyzers, fuel cell vehicles, and other fields becoming core growth drivers for platinum demand; However, platinum prices were under pressure and consolidated in H1 2026. Affected by a hawkish US Fed stance, a strengthening US dollar index, and global growth concerns, NYMEX most-traded platinum futures fluctuated around the $1,930–$2,070/oz range in late May, while the most-traded platinum futures contract on GFEX consolidated near 485 yuan/g. The high and fluctuating price environment fostered a strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream consumers, spot trading was sluggish, and the pace of imports slowed in stages. Looking ahead to H2, as global platinum inventories continue to destock and electronic & hydrogen energy projects accelerate, China's platinum imports are expected to maintain mild growth, though caution is needed regarding the drag on industrial demand from a macroeconomic downturn. In June, imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder increased 17.6% MoM, with H1 cumulative imports doubling YoY In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder stood at 4.75 mt, up 17.6% MoM and up 114% YoY. Cumulative H1 imports reached 26.97 mt, up 116% YoY. By trade mode, imports of unwrought palladium were also dominated by Ordinary Trade. By import source, Russia and South Africa were the primary countries of origin. Based on China’s May 2026 customs subcategory data, China imported 1.93 mt of palladium from Russia and 1.89 mt from South Africa that month, with the two countries together accounting for over 85% of the total. The sharp increase in palladium imports was driven by three main factors: First, the low base effect from the same period in 2025, when monthly palladium imports in H1 2025 were mostly in the 1–3 mt range. Second, in March–April 2026, as the US Commerce Department's final antidumping determination on Russian unwrought palladium approached, some traders accelerated imports of Russian palladium ahead of the USITC's final ruling and potential tariff imposition. In April, China's palladium imports reached a multi-year monthly record. Third, significant arbitrage opportunities emerged in Q1, with cross-market arbitrage participants locking in overseas supply via import channels and selling on the futures market, leading to large volumes of warrant creation and increased spot supply of palladium in China. However, palladium market fundamentals remain under pressure. Globally, auto catalysts account for as much as 83% of palladium consumption, and the ongoing electrification of vehicles is exerting a long-term drag on gasoline vehicle catalyst demand. The core demand for palladium faces structural contraction risk, and heightened concerns over global economic growth may drive palladium into a structural surplus cycle. Supply side, in May 2026, Norilsk Nickel’s Q1 platinum and palladium production fell sharply due to the impact of Western sanctions, providing some support for the bottom of palladium prices, but this has not been sufficient to reverse the weak demand landscape. H2 outlook: as the impact of the USITC's final ruling is gradually absorbed and earlier concentrated arrivals of cargo are digested by the market, palladium imports are expected to pull back from Q2 highs. For the full year, palladium imports will still maintain a high YoY growth rate, though a MoM decline in H2 is highly likely. H2 outlook Overall, China's platinum and palladium imports in H1 2026 reflected a pattern of "stable platinum and strong palladium." Supported by demand from fiberglass and hydrogen energy, platinum imports showed resilience and are expected to sustain mild growth in H2. Palladium imports surged sharply amid a trade policy window and price spreads between Chinese and overseas markets, but import growth is likely to moderate in H2 as policy impacts fade and structural demand-side pressures emerge. In H2, the following factors require close attention: Mine supply: disruptions in platinum supply caused by South Africa's power situation and mine capital expenditure, and the impact of changes in Nornickel's production on palladium supply; Trade policy: the impact of anti-dumping measures and sanctions progress on Russian palladium on the pace of China's palladium imports; End-use demand: the boost to real platinum and palladium demand from China's automobile production and sales, implementation of hydrogen energy projects, and technological shifts in the glass and glass fiber sectors; Price spreads and futures market: the impact of the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets and GFEX platinum and palladium futures delivery conditions on import windows.

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver V-Shaped Rebound This Week with 8.47% Weekly Gain; Double Bottom Pattern Emerges, Awaiting Breakout] Silver prices fell first and then rose this week, recording a weekly gain of 8.47%. The US Fed's hawkish remarks and geopolitical conflicts once weighed on silver prices, before ceasefire expectations and technical repair drove a rebound. Spot premiums held steady at parity, with thin trading. On the inventory front, total social inventory destocked by 84 mt, and ETF open interest edged up. Technically, a double bottom pattern initially emerges, with attention on a neckline breakout at $63/oz. For next week, the SGE range is seen at 13,300-15,800 yuan/kg, and LBMA at $55-65/oz.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Macro Front Sentiment Improves Slightly, Forward Surplus Pressure Persists]

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Zinc Backwardation Structure Widens, LME Zinc Center Moves Higher] Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, the daily candlestick center moved higher, MACD turned positive, and the middle Bollinger Band below provided support. Overnight, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East escalated, inflation risks increased, and LME zinc inventory continued to decline...

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,872.5/mt, drifting lower to $1,863/mt during Asian trading hours. Entering the European session, bears reduced positions, and LME lead rose to an intraday high of $1,898.5/mt before finally settling at $1,893/mt, up 1.34%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened higher with a gap at 15,790 yuan/mt, then consolidated around the 15,815 yuan/mt level, with a session high of 15,850 yuan/mt and a low of 15,770 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 15,820 yuan/mt, up 0.6%. On the macro front: An Iranian official said Trump's claims that Tehran requested negotiations were "completely baseless." US Secretary of State Rubio expressed willingness to reach a diplomatic solution with Iran but noted Iran lacks sincerity. Iran's military stated that if the US acts on its threats, Iran will cut off all oil flows in the Gulf region and strike infrastructure there. Israeli media reported that the US has notified Israel of plans to escalate strikes against Iran in the coming days. Trump said he expects a US federal government "shutdown" in September. China's Ministry of Finance reported that securities transaction stamp duty revenue jumped 97.3% YoY in H1. Beijing State-owned Capital Operation and Management Center stated it has invested a cumulative total of nearly 10 billion yuan of its own funds in the stock market so far. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead consolidated on a weak note with its center moving lower. Supplier quotes diverged more widely, with some holding prices firm while others widened discounts to sell. For primary lead smelters, EXW cargo quotes saw wider discounts, with mainstream production area quotes at discounts of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and some as low as 100-80 yuan/mt. In secondary lead, smelters held back from selling at low prices with limited quotes. Some secondary refined lead was quoted near parity against the SMM #1 lead average price, while a few regions had discounted cargoes. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and some planned output cuts due to weak orders and high temperatures, leading to lackluster spot market transactions. Inventory: On July 22, LME lead inventory fell 425 mt to 449,325 mt. As of July 20, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions decreased by 8,000 mt WoW from July 16. Lead price outlook today: Recently, some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, while new and expanded capacity at secondary lead smelters is coming online. Weak lead consumption combined with supply pressure widened spot discounts. Meanwhile, high overseas inventory weighed on the upside of lead prices, keeping prices under pressure in the short term. The market has entered a game-theory phase, with lead prices mainly consolidating on a weak note. Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: AI Sentiment Strengthens, Boosting Market Preference; SHFE Tin Consolidates on a Strong Note, Reclaiming 418,000]

SMM nickel July 22 news: Macro and market news: (1) Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya, in a concluding speech during the bill debate on Tuesday, pointed out that the establishment of the Indonesian International Financial Center (Pusat Finansial Indonesia Internasional, or PFII) will attract foreign capital flows and sustainable investment portfolios, which will serve as a long-term financing source, expand the country's economic aggregate, and enable Indonesia's economy to grow faster. (2) The US Trade Representative hinted that the US federal government will soon introduce a new tariff policy to replace the 10% global import tariff that is about to expire. Spot market: On July 22, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price was 131,200 yuan/mt, up 950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the Jinchuan #1 refined nickel average premium was 1,500 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel range was -300 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract drifted higher in the morning session, closing at 131,860 yuan/mt by the end of the morning session, up 1.36%. Base metals strengthened collectively, as funds bought undervalued varieties on dips, pushing nickel prices to undergo a phase of valuation repair. Meanwhile, nickel futures drifted higher on news about Indonesia quotas.