Trump demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or its power plants would be destroyed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran retorted that if Trump carried out his threat to attack Iran's power stations, Iran would immediately take four measures, including the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

[SMM Rare Earth Bulletin] Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae and US President Trump reached an agreement under which both sides will strengthen cooperation on critical minerals to enhance supply chain resilience. The two countries signed a preliminary agreement to jointly develop deep-sea mineral resources, including rare earth-rich mud resources around Minamitorishima. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Department of Commerce will establish a working group to advance technical cooperation on projects involving rare earth mud and manganese nodules. In addition, Mitsubishi Materials is cooperating with US-based ReElement Technologies on a project in Indiana to recycle rare earths from waste magnets.

SMM Nickel News, March 23: Macro and market news: (1) Trump demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or its power stations would be destroyed. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded that if Trump's threat to attack Iranian power stations were carried out, Iran would immediately take four measures, including fully closing the Strait of Hormuz. (2) Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the China Development Forum 2026 Annual Conference on March 22 that China would continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy. A range of monetary policy tools, including the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), policy interest rates, and open market operations, would be used in a comprehensive manner to maintain ample liquidity. Spot market: On March 23, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated at highs during the session and closed the morning session at 134,810 yuan/mt, up 1.28%. Nickel prices are currently in a phase of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continued increases in ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions have formed a solid bottom, but high inventory and the slow recovery in end-use demand still capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected at 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

March 22, according to the report of the Iranian media on the 22nd, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard said on the same day that if the threat of US President Trump to attack the Iranian power station is carried out, Iran will immediately take four measures, including completely closing the Strait of Hormuz, attacking all Israeli power plants, energy and information technology facilities, completely destroying all US-held companies in the Middle East, and attacking power plants in Middle Eastern countries with US military bases.

According to a US official and people familiar with the matter, after three weeks of fighting in Iran so far, the Trump administration has begun preliminary consultations on arrangements for the next phase of action and possible peace talks with Iran. However, US officials said the fighting is expected to continue for another two to three weeks. In addition, the official said that any ceasefire agreement must meet the following conditions: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a resolution to the issue of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and the conclusion of a long-term agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and its support for proxy armed groups in the region.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Alvance British Aluminium has boosted output by ~10% at its Lochaber smelter in Fort William, Scotland (UK’s only primary aluminium plant), thanks to recent US tariff changes. The GFG Alliance-owned facility (48,000 tpy capacity, hydro-powered) now exports about half its production to the US for the first time. Managing Director Tom Uppington: “We increased production in response to shifting trade flows after US tariffs, entering the US market while serving UK and European customers.” President Trump set a 50% global tariff on steel/aluminium imports, but the UK secured a preferential 25% rate (vs. 50% for Canada), making UK metal more competitive. The US still relies on imports for automotive and aerospace sectors.

US President Trump declared that the US was comprehensively suppressing Iran across multiple dimensions, including the military and the economy, with the intention of completely destroying it. He also said that the US military would launch “intense airstrikes” against Iran next week. When asked whether he would seize Iran’s oil hub, Kharg Island, Trump declined to comment, but he reiterated that escort operations would be carried out if necessary.According to US officials, in light of Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Pentagon was deploying additional Marine Corps forces and warships to the Middle East. Other reports indicated that the US Department of national defense was considering sending more destroyers in preparation for escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz.

SMM Nickel News, March 18: Macro and Market News: (1) "Fed Chairman whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the US Fed may be more inclined to remain silent this week. But forecasts force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed Chairmen told me they hoped to avoid forecasting interest rate cuts in the near term. Whether current officials will adopt the same stance has become the core focus of this meeting, with both hawks and doves potentially sticking to their positions by pointing to the same shock. (2) US President Trump again expressed his personal dissatisfaction with NATO at the White House on March 17 local time. Trump said whether the US should withdraw from NATO "is indeed something we should consider." Spot Market: On March 18, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 1,950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract continued to fluctuate downward during the session and closed the morning session at 135,110 yuan/mt, down 1.49. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Although macro pressure remained significant, the industrial support logic has not changed. The market is still concerned that supply of nickel intermediate products tightens. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

This week, the rare earth market outside China showed a divergent pattern of “cerium up, the rest down.” Driven by price increases in China and rising ocean freight rates, cerium oxide FOB and CIF prices rose by $55/mt and $60/mt, respectively, while FOB offers for mainstream magnetic material raw materials such as praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium were generally lowered by $3-19.5/kg due to lower prices in China and tight supply caused by export controls. Although limited trading volumes supported premiums in markets outside China, expectations of an industrial slowdown in Europe triggered by the Middle East situation may suppress subsequent demand. On industry developments, Lynas’ Malaysia plant started samarium oxide production ahead of schedule, consolidating its position as the only commercial heavy rare earth separator outside China and advancing its 2030 strategy. In Australia, Terrain discovered high-grade magnetic rare earth ore intervals during drilling at its Western Australia project, highlighting significant resource potential.