Freight. From January to April, national railways cumulatively completed freight volume of 1.727 billion mt, up 2.8% YoY; freight turnover reached 1,227.427 billion mt-km, up 5.4% YoY. In April, freight volume reached 446 million mt, up 4.3% YoY; freight turnover reached 320.623 billion mt-km, up 6.3% YoY. By commodity category, from January to April, national railways cumulatively transported coal (920 million mt), containers (349 million mt), and fertilizers & pesticides (21.15 million mt), up 3.4%, 9.1%, and 14.6% YoY respectively, with key commodity transportation effectively guaranteed. Fixed asset investment. From January to April, national railway fixed asset investment totaled 200.8 billion yuan, up 3.2% YoY, with railway construction advancing with high quality and efficiency.

The National Economy Maintained Steady Progress in January–April In January–April, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy, accelerated the construction of a new development pattern, effectively implemented more proactive and impactful macro policies, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. Production and supply grew steadily, market sales continued to expand, foreign trade resilience was further demonstrated, employment and prices remained generally stable, new momentum grew stronger, and high-quality development advanced toward new and better directions. I. Industrial Production Grew Rapidly, with Equipment Manufacturing and High-tech Manufacturing Growing at a Faster Pace In January–April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 5.6% YoY. By three major categories, the value added of the mining industry grew 5.5% YoY, manufacturing grew 5.8%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 4.5%. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew 8.7% YoY, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew 12.6%, which were 3.1 and 7 percentage points faster than the overall value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, respectively. By economic type, the value added of state-holding enterprises grew 4.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 6.0%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 3.9%; and private enterprises grew 5.2%. By product, the production of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots grew 50.9%, 36.0%, and 25.7% YoY, respectively. In April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide grew 4.1% YoY and 0.05% MoM. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%; the business activity expectations index of enterprises was 54.5%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. In January–March, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 1,696 billion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. II. The Service Sector Grew Steadily, with Modern Services Developing Well In January–April, the national service sector production index grew 4.9% YoY. By industry, the production indices of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and the financial industry grew 10.9%, 9.3%, and 6.7% YoY, respectively. In April, the national service sector production index grew 4.3% YoY. In January–March, the operating revenue of service enterprises above designated size grew 6.5% YoY. In April, the business activity index of the service sector was 49.6%; the business activity expectations index of the service sector was 55.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, industries such as railway transport, postal services, and telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services had business activity indices in the relatively high prosperity range of above 55.0%. III. Market Sales Scale Expanded, Service Retail Growth Accelerated From January to April, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 16,494.1 billion yuan, up 1.9% YoY. By location of business units, urban consumer goods retail sales were 14,292.1 billion yuan, up 1.8% YoY; rural consumer goods retail sales were 2,202 billion yuan, up 2.8%. By consumption type, commodity retail sales were 14,605.8 billion yuan, up 1.7%; catering revenue was 1,888.3 billion yuan, up 3.8%. Sales of basic living necessities and some upgraded goods grew relatively fast, with retail sales of grain, oil and food, clothing, footwear, hats, knitwear and textiles, and communication equipment by units above the designated size up 8.6%, 8.1%, and 17.7% YoY respectively. In April, total retail sales of consumer goods were up 0.2% YoY and down 0.48% MoM. From January to April, service retail sales were up 5.6% YoY, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.1 percentage point compared with January to March. Among them, retail sales of communication and information services, tourism, consulting and rental services, culture, sports and leisure services, and transportation services grew relatively fast. From January to April, national online retail sales of goods and services reached 6,530.8 billion yuan, up 6.6% YoY. Of this, online goods retail sales were 4,118.5 billion yuan, up 5.7%, accounting for 25.0% of total retail sales of consumer goods; online service retail sales were 2,412.3 billion yuan, up 8.3%. IV. Fixed Asset Investment Declined YoY, High-Tech Industry Investment Grew Relatively Fast From January to April, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 14,129.3 billion yuan, down 1.6% YoY; excluding real estate development investment, national fixed asset investment grew 1.3%. Of this, intellectual property product investment was up 8.9% YoY. By sector, infrastructure investment was up 4.3% YoY, manufacturing investment up 1.2%, and real estate development investment down 13.7%. The floor space of newly built commercial buildings sold nationwide was 252.58 million m², down 10.2% YoY; sales revenue of newly built commercial buildings was 2,300 billion yuan, down 14.6%. By industry, primary industry investment was up 10.1% YoY, secondary industry investment up 2.5%, and tertiary industry investment down 4.2%. Private investment was down 5.2% YoY; excluding real estate development investment, private investment was down 1.9%. High-tech industry investment was up 6.1% YoY, of which investment in aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services grew 17.9%, 13.9%, and 18.1% respectively. In April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) declined 2.36% MoM. V. Goods Imports and Exports Grew Rapidly, Trade Structure Continued to Optimize In January-April, total goods imports and exports reached 16,225.2 billion yuan, up 14.9% YoY. Of this, exports were 9,328 billion yuan, up 11.3%; imports were 6,897.2 billion yuan, up 20.0%. Ordinary Trade imports and exports grew 8.5% YoY. Imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries grew 13.5%. Private enterprise imports and exports grew 15.9%. Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew 17.6%. In April, total goods imports and exports were 4,377.8 billion yuan, up 14.2% YoY. Of this, exports were 2,481.7 billion yuan, up 9.8%; imports were 1,896 billion yuan, up 20.6%. VI. Employment Situation Remained Generally Stable, Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Declined In January-April, the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. In April, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate for local household registration labor force was 5.3%; the surveyed unemployment rate for migrant labor force was 5.0%, of which the surveyed unemployment rate for migrant labor force with agricultural household registration was 5.0%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The average weekly working hours of employed persons in enterprises nationwide was 48 hours. VII. Consumer Prices Saw a Mild Rebound, Producer Prices Saw Expanded Gains In January-April, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.9% YoY. By category, prices of food, tobacco, alcohol and dining out rose 0.2% YoY, clothing prices rose 1.7%, housing prices fell 0.2%, household goods and services prices rose 2.0%, transportation and communication prices rose 0.3%, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 1.1%, healthcare prices rose 1.9%, and other goods and services prices rose 13.3%. Among food, tobacco, alcohol and dining out prices, pork prices fell 12.2%, grain prices fell 0.3%, fresh fruit prices rose 3.0%, and fresh vegetable prices rose 5.7%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.2% YoY. In April, the national CPI rose 1.2% YoY, with the increase expanding 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; up 0.3% MoM. In January-April, the national ex-factory prices of industrial producers rose 0.2% YoY. Of this, in April, ex-factory prices rose 2.8% YoY, with the increase expanding 2.3 percentage points from the previous month; up 1.7% MoM. From January to April, the national industrial producer purchase price increased 0.5% YoY. Of which, April was up 3.5% YoY, with the increase expanding 2.7 percentage points from the previous month; up 2.1% MoM. Overall, from January to April, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with high-quality development advancing solidly. However, it should be noted that the external environment remains complex and volatile, the domestic imbalance of strong supply and weak demand remains prominent, some enterprises face operational difficulties, and the foundation for steady and positive economic development still needs to be consolidated. In the next phase, it is necessary to adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, maintain the general principle of seeking progress while ensuring stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, precisely and effectively implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policies, continuously expand domestic demand and optimize supply, enhance incremental growth and revitalize existing assets, strengthen the endogenous driving force of economic development, further strengthen the domestic circulation, optimize the domestic-international dual circulation, and promote sustained and healthy economic development. Recommended reading:

According to NBS data, from January to April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.6% YoY in real terms (all value-added growth rates are real growth rates after deducting price factors). In April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.1% YoY. On a MoM basis, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size in April increased 0.05% from the previous month. By three major sectors, in April, the value added of the mining industry grew 3.8% YoY, manufacturing grew 4.0%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 5.3%. By economic type, in April, the value added of state-holding enterprises grew 3.0% YoY; joint-stock enterprises grew 4.2%, foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 4.1%; and private enterprises grew 2.8%. By industry, in April, 29 out of 41 major industrial categories maintained YoY growth in value added. Among them, coal mining and washing grew 3.8%, oil and natural gas extraction grew 4.6%, agricultural and sideline food processing grew 3.5%, liquor, beverages, and refined tea manufacturing declined 1.4%, textiles grew 2.3%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing grew 5.3%, non-metallic minerals products manufacturing declined 6.5%, ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing grew 1.0%, non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing declined 1.0%, general equipment manufacturing grew 5.5%, special equipment manufacturing grew 6.2%, automobile manufacturing grew 9.2%, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing grew 8.2%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing grew 3.1%, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing grew 15.6%, and electricity and heat production and supply grew 6.2%. By product, in April, 321 out of 626 products of industrial enterprises above designated size recorded YoY growth in production. Among them, steel products (122.63 million mt, down 1.7% YoY), cement (145.71 million mt, down 10.8%), ten kinds of non-ferrous metals (6.94 million mt, up 2.8%), ethylene (3.15 million mt, down 4.1%), automobiles (2.564 million units, down 2.6%), of which NEVs (1.296 million units, up 3.8%); power generation (744 billion kWh, up 2.6%); and crude oil processing volume (54.65 million mt, down 5.8%). In April, the sales ratio of products of industrial enterprises above designated size was 97.1%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY; the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,373.3 billion yuan, up 10.6% YoY in nominal terms.

[SMM Hydrogen Energy News Brief: Tender Announcement for Commissioning and Trial Run Services of Hainan Offshore Wind Power Hydrogen Production Demonstration Project] On May 14, the announcement of shortlisted candidates for the commissioning, trial run, and demonstration operation services of the Hainan New Energy Offshore Wind Power Hydrogen Production Comprehensive Utilization Key Technology R&D and Engineering Demonstration Project was released. The bid inviter was Hainan Shenneng Materials Co., Ltd. According to the announcement, the first-ranked candidate was Zhonghua No.2 Construction Group Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 5.83 million yuan; the second-ranked candidate was Zhongshihua Engineering Construction Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 5.875 million yuan. The project aimed to implement the construction requirements of Hainan's clean energy priority development demonstration zone, focusing on offshore wind power hydrogen production and comprehensive utilization technology research. It would achieve breakthroughs in key technologies such as floating platform hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and transportation, and hydrogen-to-ammonia/methanol conversion, develop core equipment and an offshore wind power hydrogen production comprehensive utilization floating platform, and provide technological and engineering support for Hainan's clean energy island construction and large-scale offshore hydrogen production.

Philippine Nickel Ore Market: Ample Inventories at Chinese and Indonesian Smelters, Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers Driving Nickel Ore Prices Under Pressure Philippine nickel ore prices declined this week. Price-wise, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes: Ni 1.3% grade at $53-56/wmt, Ni 1.4% grade at $61-64/wmt, Ni 1.5% grade at $68-71/wmt. In addition, the 1.3% grade CIF average price from the Philippines to Indonesia was quoted at $48-50/wmt, and the 1.4% grade CIF average price at $56-58/wmt. Recently, Philippine nickel ore prices have generally faced downward pressure. In terms of supply, as the rainy season ended in major producing areas, shipments of Philippine nickel ore increased significantly. Most mines resumed normal shipping, effectively easing the previously tight supply situation. Meanwhile, demand side, large smelters from China and Indonesia were leveraging ample inventories and favorable supply availability in the market to push for lower prices. As buyers on both sides only accepted lower prices, miners had to compromise. In terms of export flows, nickel ore shipments to Indonesia were relatively low this week, indicating a slow procurement pace in the Indonesian market. Given the still-weak recovery in nickel ore shipments to Indonesia, bearish market sentiment is expected to drag nickel ore prices further down. Inventory side, as of May 8 (Friday), nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 4.55 million mt, up 150,000 mt WoW, with total port inventory equivalent to approximately 35,700 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China's NPI prices continued to rise overall this week, while spot transaction prices edged down to 1,146 yuan/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market overall hovered at highs this week, with significant divergence between sellers and buyers. The price center shifted slightly lower amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, and overall market sentiment remained subdued. Smelters' continued push for lower prices on the raw material side caused the nickel ore CIF price center to shift further downward. As a result, Philippine ore FOB price support was extremely lacking. Considering destocking and maintaining trade turnover, miners are expected to make concessions in subsequent quotes. Currently, bearish sentiment dominates the market, and there remains room for further downside in prices in the short term. Prices are expected to maintain a downward trend in May. Indonesian Nickel Ore Market: Indonesian Nickel Benchmark Price Breaks Through $18,000, Extreme Weather and Policy Dynamics Intensify Price Divergence Indonesian nickel ore market prices fluctuated overall this week. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially released the nickel mineral benchmark price (HMA) for the second half of May 2026. The HMA for the first half of May was: nickel at $18,849.3/mt (up $1,047.15 from the first period of May 2026 at $17,802.14, a 5.88% increase); cobalt at $55,854/mt; iron ore at $1.58/mt; chrome ore at $6.37/mt. Currently, the CIF price of 1.6%-grade saprolite ore reached $77.8–80.8/wmt, up $3.3 from last week. The price of 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $28.33/wmt, flat from last week. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impact Saprolite ore: Production from major mines is expected to edge up in May. Although Indonesia has largely entered the dry season, abnormally heavy rainfall hit the central and southern Sulawesi region mid-week. As a result, land transportation and barge transshipment plans at some small and medium-sized mines were forced to halt. Despite RKAB approval progress reaching 90%, spot supply of high-grade saprolite ore remains tight; nevertheless, market expectations for easing supply have strengthened notably compared to earlier periods. Notably, the average grade of ore accepted by smelters has begun to trend downward. Although the decline is not yet significant, some smelters have started blending low-grade ore into their raw materials to alleviate the pressure from high-grade ore shortages and surging costs. Pricing side, smelters currently primarily adopt fixed pricing or a "HPM + $7–10 premium" model. Additionally, some smelters have begun implementing uniform saprolite ore benchmark specifications (cobalt 0.05%, iron 20%, chromium 1%), regardless of differences in actual ore output from individual mines. Furthermore, composition bonuses in the market have been reduced to minimal levels, as most bonuses are already incorporated into the fixed premium. Overall, as HMA has already breached the $18,000/mt threshold and the nickel ore royalty has risen to 15%, downside room for Indonesian nickel ore prices is limited in the short term. Limonite ore: Limonite ore prices declined and did not follow the increase in the new HPM. Affected by a potential sulphuric acid supply deficit in May that could lead to MHP production cuts, limonite ore demand was under pressure. Against a backdrop of relatively stable inventory, smelters continued to push for lower prices aggressively. 3. SMM Internal Estimates: The new formula led to ore price divergence and amplified fluctuations (particularly affected by the relatively high associated cobalt content in certain ores). SMM estimates showed that the new HPM for 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $49.95, already significantly higher than actual market assessed prices; the new HPM for 1.6%-grade saprolite ore was $70.83, and under the new pricing formula, price fluctuations were notably amplified due to the higher cobalt content in certain ores. Although current actual market transaction prices remain above this benchmark, the gap between the two is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quota (RKAB) and Market Outlook: Indonesia's ESDM indicated that the 2026 RKAB approval progress has reached approximately 90%. According to SMM statistics, the cumulative approved RKAB quota for Indonesian nickel ore totalled approximately 230–240 million wmt. The market widely expects the final quota to be officially finalised by month-end of April. Affected by the combined impact of expectations of RKAB quota reductions, resource uncertainty, and the shortage of high-grade ore, some smelters have already begun raising trade premiums and surcharges to secure supply sources. The market has recently been closely watching the announcement by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia on Monday (May 11, 2026) that the government will postpone its plan to impose export duties (bea keluar) on nickel downstream products in order to formulate a reasonable pricing formula that is a "win-win" for both the country and enterprises. Although this tariff is intended to drive the transformation of the nickel industry, which currently achieves only 40% deep processing, toward higher value-added products (such as moving beyond merely producing NPI), the government decided to temporarily "shelve" the proposal after hearing industry opinions.

Supply Contraction Expectations Persisted, MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte Payable Indicators Fluctuated at Highs This Week

China's steel billet exports performed strongly in Q1 2026, showing a continuous growth trend. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's steel billet exports in March 2026 reached 1.53 million mt, up 66.0% MoM and up 47.9% YoY, hitting a record high for a single month in the same period in recent years.

The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum , organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and sponsored by China Securities International as platinum sponsor, wrapped up successfully at Novotel Hong Kong Century on May 6. With over 300 registrations and 200 on-site attendees, the forum focused on the theme "New Metals Cycle: Prices, Power & Global Wrestling". The event featured keynote speeches by industry experts and SMM analysts, covering base metals, new energy materials, and strategic revaluation of minor and precious metals. Two high-level panel sessions were held, exploring hot topics such as geopolitics, supply-demand fluctuations, CBAM impacts, and market opportunities. It also served as an efficient platform for networking and cooperation across entire industry chains. SMM Opening Address SMM Chairman Adam Fan SMM Chairman Adam Fan stated in the opening address that it was a great honor to gather with elites from all sectors of the industry at this forum. The world is currently at a critical development period, and the exchange of industry ideas is not only an industry necessity but also an inevitable requirement for global development. Adam reviewed the century-long legacy of the London Metal Exchange, which has weathered nearly 150 years of global changes and industry evolution, fully demonstrating that although market structures may change, the fundamental need for risk management and reliable price discovery remains constant. At the same time, Adam candidly acknowledged that global markets are currently mired in a pattern of deep fluctuations. Geopolitical conflicts, supply chain fragmentation, and the compounding crises of energy and food, overlaid with de-globalization and rising trade protectionism, have intensified market uncertainty and inflationary pressures, posing severe challenges to global economic growth and industrial cooperation. Against this backdrop, SMM has steadfastly upheld its mission, refusing to be a bystander to the trend of industry fragmentation, and is committed to serving as a bridge for global industrial connectivity amid a landscape of division. SMM is dedicated to promoting dialogue and exchange, breaking down industry and regional barriers, and bringing together regulators, traders, and producers from around the world to discuss industry development. SMM upholds the principle of information transparency, continuously providing accurate, real-time market data to help the industry see through market fog and clarify market distortions. SMM deepens pragmatic cooperation by building a neutral and professional platform for exchange and matchmaking, driving all parties to pursue collaborative development based on shared interests and transcending political differences. Adam emphasized that information sharing and open collaboration would be leveraged to mitigate market risks and strengthen overall industry resilience, and called on the industry to seize the opportunity of this forum to jointly explore solutions, transforming current challenges into momentum for driving integrated and robust development of the global metals industry. Speech by Platinum Sponsor Wang Guangxue, Member of the Executive Committee of China Securities Co., Ltd. and Chairman of China Securities Futures Co., Ltd. Wang stated that as a vital bridge connecting the capital market and the real economy, China Securities has always been committed to serving the high-quality development of the metals industry. Leveraging the comprehensive financial strengths of CITIC Group, the company has built a full-chain integrated service system covering securities, futures, investment, and research. The company has been deeply engaged in the commodities sector, continuously providing forward-looking research to anticipate market trends, utilizing futures instruments to build robust risk barriers, and empowering industrial upgrading through capital services. It will fully leverage CITIC Group's full-license resource advantages and the strategic value of Hong Kong as an international financial center to continuously strengthen its cross-border comprehensive financial services capabilities. The company aims to tailor integrated risk management and asset allocation solutions at home and abroad for enterprises across the metals industry chain, precisely helping enterprises hedge against price fluctuation risks, and enabling them to operate steadily and advance with high quality in complex market environments. Structural Shifts: Rethinking Commodity Benchmarks in an Era of Persistent Inflation and Rivalry Speaker: Tian Yaxiong, Co-Head of R&D Department, China Securities Futures Tian shared professional research findings and cutting-edge market insights on hot topics including the market outlook for global metals and the deep impact of geopolitics on commodity trends. SMM Industry Analysis: Market Outlook and Pre-seminar Sharing for Base Metals and New Energy Materials (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium, and Tin) & How SMM Empowers Your Commodity Trading & Analysis Speakers: Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd.; Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Analysis at SMM Dr. Wang first analyzed the macroeconomic landscape. At the beginning of this year, the manufacturing PMIs of major economies performed quite well, actually exceeding 50%. Without the conflict, demand this year would have been quite strong. However, at the end of February, the US-Iran conflict broke out, and the International Monetary Fund subsequently revised down its global economic growth expectations. He pointed out that China's exports remain one of the three pillars that are still functioning well to date. Regarding automobile consumption, he noted that for the EV market, the positive factor for the auto industry also lies in exports. In Q1 this year, export performance was indeed very strong. If you look at EV exports alone, they actually grew nearly 160% YoY. Driven mainly by growth in global markets, he remains optimistic about the auto industry this year. In Europe, gasoline and diesel prices have risen significantly due to the US-Iran conflict, and EV demand is expected to benefit from this factor. He believes the power sector continues to maintain strong growth. Based on power grid and power generation investment data from the first two months, combined with State Grid Corporation of China's earlier announcement that fixed asset investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, this indicates that electricity demand will drive strong growth. State Grid Corporation of China will build more ultra-high voltage transmission projects, which will undoubtedly support aluminum demand and also copper demand. Aluminum: Wang noted that base metal prices experienced wild swings since the beginning of this year. He also discussed that China's aluminum smelters continued to raise operating rates due to favorable profitability; aluminum demand pulled back in Q1, and high prices drove inventory higher; approximately 950,000 mt of new aluminum smelting capacity in Indonesia may come online in 2026, with some investors watching Angola; and aluminum semis and wheel hub exports maintained growth in Q1. Copper: After copper prices experienced a pullback and adjustment in March, downstream procurement demand in China was rapidly released, providing strong support for copper prices to rebound. Copper prices rose sharply, with the market downplaying geopolitical risks. China's copper cathode demand was robust, and inventory continued to decline. China's copper scrap market was not truly facing a spot shortage issue. The outlook for copper cathode demand is positive. China remains dependent on copper concentrate imports. Spot copper concentrate TCs showed no signs of bottoming out. By-product revenue sustained smelter profits. He also analyzed the DRC sulphuric acid market conditions, the expected slowdown in global refined production growth, and how a refined market supply deficit should support higher copper prices. He also mentioned that the AI industry maintained strong development momentum, bringing new growth momentum to copper demand. Tin: He elaborated from the following perspectives: Myanmar tin production — slow recovery, upward trajectory, 2025-2027E; Indonesia tin ore RKAB quotas — expected to ease slightly in 2026; DRC — major mine production remained stable, but the M23 movement added uncertainty; global tin prices — supply determines the floor, macro factors drive fluctuations; the global tin market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with new mining capacity expected to be concentrated for release in 2028. Thomas Feng shared insights on nickel, cobalt, and lithium: emerging from the trough and entering a new cycle. ►New energy demand landscape: from EV popularization to energy storage deployment. First, he reviewed and provided an outlook on the global NEV market: NEV demand no longer maintains a one-sided high-growth trajectory, but instead exhibits characteristics of regional differentiation, structural divergence, and intensifying cyclical volatility; development paces in China, Europe, and the US have shown notable differences; performance trends of BEVs, PHEVs, and commercial vehicles have diverged; and the impact of inventory and price cycles on industry operations is increasing significantly. Second, in his review and outlook of the global energy storage market, he noted that the global energy storage market will remain concentrated in three key regions: China, the US, and Europe. Driven by 2030 climate goals, emerging markets such as the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia are showing strong growth in demand for large-scale energy storage. Benefiting from cost advantages and improved safety performance, LFP battery market share is expected to continue climbing. ►Lithium: Reshaping the Supply-Demand Pattern in a New Cycle Global lithium carbonate market: shifting from overall surplus to structural tightness, with prices in a post-trough reassessment and recovery phase. Lithium hydroxide supply and demand maintained a tight balance: production on the supply side was driven by demand, the market share of ternary power batteries was squeezed, and room for growth was limited. The concentration of lithium resource supply declined, with marginal growth rates slowing down simultaneously. Significant demand growth drove the continued expansion of resource projects. ►Nickel: Navigating Policy Changes and Narrowing Oversupply Indonesia's nickel ore HPM adjustment: aimed at enhancing the economic value of non-nickel resources. The discussion covered scenario analysis of nickel ore prices following the implementation of the new policy, and the impact analysis of nickel ore benchmark price adjustments on MHP full costs. Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota: a tight balance is expected to set the tone for 2026. Global primary nickel is expected to remain in persistent oversupply. Regarding the logic behind refined nickel price trends, it was noted that policy and macro factors jointly amplified price fluctuations, while cost support elevated the long-term price floor. ►Cobalt: Shifting from Surplus to Shortage after the DRC Export Ban——Long-Term Uncertainty Remains Following the DRC policy announcement, cobalt product prices in China rose rapidly. However, high prices suppressed downstream demand, putting prices under pressure. Starting from H2 2025, the Chinese market continued destocking. Amid raw material shortages, enterprises began using MHP and recycled materials as production substitutes. MHP and recycling are expected to continue growing rapidly, effectively bridging the cobalt hydroxide gap. Cost pressure transmitted in both directions: LCO doping/ternary substitution restarted, and consumer cobalt demand is expected to decline by 10%. As persistently high cobalt prices suppress demand, if China secures 90% of the DRC quota, supplemented by MHP and recycling supply, inventory buildup could occur as early as 2026. Panel Discussion: Global Metals Market Outlook——Geopolitics Disruption, Macro Cycles and the Return of Commodity Volatility •Copper and Aluminum Price Rise, 2024-2026 •Precious Metals Storm: Silver Swung Wildly, Gold Hit Record Highs — Interest Rate Cycles, Safe-Haven Demand, and Industrial Logic •Precious Metals and Industrial Metals: Are Commodities Entering a New Cycle •Focus on Critical Minerals: Emerging Region Supply Rise and Policy Shifts, Green Transition Co-Shaping a New Narrative •Chinese Market: The 15th Five-Year Plan Moderator: Yanchen Wang, Managing Director, SMM Global UK Ltd. Panelists: Yahong Tian, Co-Head of R&D, CITIC Futures Henry Van, Head of Industrial Metals Analysis, Trafigura Sharon Ding, Head of China Basic Materials, UBS Justin William Hughes, Commodity Derivatives Distribution, Optiver Xie Shaobo, Head of China, Appian Mining Fund & independent non-executive Director, Zijin Gold International Panelists noted aluminum has great upside—its 10% price rise lags its 4%-5% supply contraction (vs. oil’s 60% price surge on 10% supply drop), with valuation recovery incomplete. They were more optimistic about copper demand, driven by real downstream demand rather than speculation; aluminum semis’ upside is underappreciated due to high oil prices. Long-term, copper and gold are key for mining investment, with scarce high-quality copper mines and solid gold fundamentals. They also discussed US tariffs, China’s metal demand resilience and overseas mining investment. Overseas mining success hinges on resource-to-reserve certainty; West Africa, Latin America, DRC and Zambia are new hotspots, while Australian/Canadian listed miners are undervalued. Enterprises must plan prudently based on risk tolerance. Geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Iran) may trigger energy crises, but current inflation control and China’s high metal consumption share weaken demand impact. Long-term, energy crises will boost electrification, expanding copper/aluminum demand. Investment depends on risk appetite and fundamental grasp. SMM Industry Analysis: Strategic Re-valuation of Minor Precious and Minor Metals in 2026 — The Case of Silver and Tungsten Silver: Market Supply-Demand Balance and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evolution and Shift in Industrial Demand, Particularly Driven by the PV Sector Tungsten: Strategic Status Upgrade - Supply Constraints and High-End Demand Driving the 2026 Price Rally Speaker: Juno Zhu, Senior Analyst of Minor and Precious Metals, SMM Juno shared insights on the strategic revaluation of tungsten and silver. Tungsten: Tungsten prices have surged over 500% since 2025; China holds over 50% of global tungsten reserves, contributes nearly 80% of global production, and possesses a complete industrial value chain; China's tungsten supply constraints in 2025: H1 mining quotas declined 6.45% YoY; global new project stagnation: limited capacity expansion in 2026, with ex-China mine development cycles of 3–5 years; domestic tungsten downstream applications: significant growth in cutting tools and PV tungsten wire in 2025; European market: persistent raw material shortages, with Rotterdam tungsten prices surging since February 2025; China's tungsten product exports: transitioning from primary products to deep-processed products; SMM analysis: the tungsten market supply-demand gap is expected to persist but narrow in 2026; prices are expected to consolidate at highs after overheating cools. Silver: Silver price fluctuations in 2026: an unexpected surge from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, where frenzied investment demand and capital liquidity completely overshadowed the impact of the industrial off-season. Shift in trade dynamics in Q1 2026: SGE-LBMA premiums reversal and a surge in imports. Demand spike in Q1 2026: the PV industry started with a recovery, and an investment boom generated a phased demand peak. PV market outlook: policy shifts in 2026 are expected to curb demand growth, with overall silver consumption remaining stable. Silver demand outlook for 2026: industrial fundamentals provide support, while investment surges serve as a tactical highlight. Silver supply outlook for 2026: mild annual growth and an expanding secondary supply share are expected to drive a tight balance in the market. Market outlook: short-term trends are expected to revert to industrial fundamentals, while the medium and long-term trajectory is expected to fluctuate at highs driven by safe-haven demand. Panel Discussion: Metals in a Fragmented World: Trading Opportunities in the Age of Instability (Physical Trading and Hedging) •Shifting Liquidity Landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE •Shipping Risks and Sanctioned Metals: Implications for LME Inventory Structure •How European CBAM is Reshaping Global Metals Trade Flows •Is the Metals Market Entering an "Era of Geopolitical Risk Premiums" •Internationalization of SHFE & GFEX: Opportunities and Challenges for Global Investors Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, SMM Panelist: Anant Jatia, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Greenland Investment Management Bella Yu, General Manager of Marketing Department, Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. David Wilson, Director of Commodity Strategy, BNP Paribas Duncan Hobbs, Research Director, Concord Resources Nicholas Snowdon, Head of Metals and Mining Research, Mercuria Energy Trading SA Sabrina Qian, Director of Geared broking desk, IFCHOR GALBRAITHS Anant Jatia stated: CBAM represents a major policy shift in Europe's metals sector. It is not merely about raising trade costs, but will profoundly reshape global metal trade flows and pricing logic. CBAM officially took effect in January this year, initially covering categories such as steel and aluminum semis, with its core mechanism incorporating carbon emission intensity costs into Europe's metal pricing system. High-carbon-emission producers will need to bear additional carbon allowance costs, significantly weakening their export competitiveness to Europe, while green capacity powered by clean energy will gain a clear advantage in the European market and capture greater market share. Following the policy's implementation, the landed cost of metals in the European market will rise, sustaining a long-term regional premium similar to the aluminum premium structure in the US market. Compared with the market differentiation among LME-registered brands following CBAM's implementation, what deserves more attention are the entirely new market opportunities it creates. By sourcing low-carbon, high-quality materials, market participants can potentially capture green premiums, while the mechanism will also transform metal trading models and the global trade flow landscape. The panelists also discussed the changing liquidity landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE. They noted that liquidity in the commodity market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with copper and other products now tradable across multiple global futures exchanges. Price discovery is no longer concentrated in a single market, and the traditional pattern of one market leading gains and others following has reversed, with multi-exchange rotation driving price movements becoming the norm. Factors such as geopolitical policies and tariff adjustments have given rise to regional pricing divergence, with price movements in some markets increasingly driven by capital flows and sentiment. Policy and geopolitical events have also significantly affected the spread between futures and spot prices of metals, creating opportunities for cross-market arbitrage. Meanwhile, policies related to critical minerals supply security, regional supply shocks, and geopolitical disruptions have widened the dislocation between regional fundamentals and price signals. The metals market has entered a window of structural arbitrage opportunities, and this trend is expected to persist. Cross-market arbitrage continues to provide liquidity support to exchanges, a phenomenon broadly observed across both industrial and precious metals. In addition, the panelists engaged in in-depth discussions on the differences between exchange liquidity and industrial liquidity, as well as factors influencing metal price trends, including fundamentals, geopolitical developments, energy costs, and commodity transportation costs. Opening Remarks for Coffee Break Xu Tao, CEO of CSCI In his address, Xu Tao stated that Hong Kong serves as a vital hub in the global metals pricing and trading system, playing a key role in the aggregation of LME delivery resources and the internationalization of RMB-denominated commodities. Going forward, China Securities International will continue to leverage its role as a bridge for cross-border business, deepen collaboration with CSC Futures, and provide clients at home and abroad with efficient and professional comprehensive financial services in commodities, contributing to a higher level of opening-up of China's financial markets. Networking (Coffee Break) Acknowledgments The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum was successfully held with special thanks to the Platinum Sponsor, China Securities International, for its strong support, as well as sincere gratitude to Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. for its significant contribution to the forum. Going forward, China Securities and China Securities International will continue to leverage the unique geographical and resource advantages of Hong Kong as an international financial center, deepen strategic cooperation with authoritative industry platforms such as SMM, and continuously improve the "onshore + offshore" integrated bulk commodity comprehensive service system, precisely empowering enterprises to seize market opportunities and hedge operational risks, contributing professional expertise to advancing the internationalization of China's bulk commodity market and enhancing the industry's global competitiveness. Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. (formerly Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center) has been engaged in new energy materials and critical metals supply chain services for over 20 years. Through its digital platform and offline service network, the company provides upstream and downstream clients with full-process online services including price negotiation, contract signing, contract execution, payment settlement, cargo delivery, processing, quality inspection, and after-sales services. With transparent pricing, 100% fulfillment guarantee, and strict quality control, it has established stable cooperation with over 30,000 industrial clients. In the field of critical strategic metal resources, Unilink has built a supply chain service system covering 14 critical metal varieties including indium, bismuth, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Spot delivery volumes of indium and bismuth each account for over 90% of China's consumption. For new energy materials, spot delivery volumes of nickel, cobalt, and lithium on Zhonglian Jin's platform account for 30%, 90%, and 20% of China's consumption respectively, while daily sulfur trading volume exceeds 80,000 mt. Unilink implements a service model of "payment upon delivery, cargo pick-up upon payment," effectively shortening delivery cycles, reducing enterprise operating costs, and helping upstream and downstream clients achieve stable and efficient material scheduling. Zhonglian Jin strictly adheres to national industrial policies and resource management requirements, consistently focusing on serving the real economy, fully ensuring the security and smooth operation of bulk commodity supply chains, and promoting efficient resource allocation. It has ranked among China's Top 500 Service Enterprises and China's Top 20 Growing Internet Enterprises for two consecutive years. With that, the 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum came to a successful conclusion! Thank you for your help and support for this forum~

[Ex-China Supply Disruptions Combined with Macro Recovery Strengthen Upside Momentum for Aluminum Prices] The risk of ex-China aluminum supply disruptions has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing has restricted aluminum ingot spot liquidity, and a weakening spot market will limit upside room for domestic aluminum prices. However, since April, China's export orders have remained positive, and combined with recent macro tailwinds, a turning point in China's social inventory is expected to emerge, boosting upside momentum for aluminum prices.

SMM, May 14: According to official information obtained by SMM, Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co., Ltd. began an open tender today for 5 mt of tellurium ingots under its ownership. Official information showed that this batch of tellurium ingots met the Te99.95 standard. The tender floor price was set at a discount of 30 yuan/kg. Storage location: factory warehouse. Transportation costs shall be borne by the buyer. The registration deadline is before 17:00 on May 18, 2026, and the bidding will commence at 15:00 on May 19, 2026.