On July 17, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) came in at -$146.15/dmt, down $13.31/dmt from the previous reading of -$132.84/dmt. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic trade ore was reported at 98%-99%. The copper concentrates spot market saw slightly more activity this week compared to the previous week. In spot transactions, a trader sold 10,000 mt of Las Bambas to a smelter at a deduction of $15-16/dmt from the average of the SMM and FM indices, for September loading; meanwhile, a trader sold 10,000 mt of Calcine at a premium of $5/dmt to the average of the SMM and FM indices; a trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore and 10,000 mt of Bisha at a fixed price of -$140/mt to a smelter, for August-September loading; a trader sold 20,000 mt of clean ore at a fixed price of -$155/mt, for Q4 loading; additionally, a trader sold 20,000-30,000 mt of bundled ore at a deduction of $20/dmt from the index, for loading from Q4 2026 to Q1 2027; a mine sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at a fixed price of -$160/dmt, for September loading, QP: M+3. On the tender front, the previous Jabal tender result was out, with a deal concluded on the trader side at a fixed price of -$250/dmt for 40,000-50,000 mt, for H2 shipment; the result of the Newmonet tender for 20,000-30,000 mt of Red Christ is still pending; in addition, SMM learned that a large mine previously tendered 100,000 mt in physical content of copper concentrates, with bids from traders coming in at over -$200/dmt for 2026 shipment, -$200/dmt for 2027 shipment, and over -$100/dmt for 2028 shipment. Overall, the copper concentrates spot market continued its trend of probing lower this week, with spot TCs declining further from the prior period. Smelters still had rigid restocking demand, but as TCs continued to drop, copper smelting profits were further squeezed, making smelters more cautious about accepting low-priced cargoes and tilting purchases more toward rigid restocking. Meanwhile, mine tenders and trader offers kept edging lower, and the low-priced spot deals further shook smelters' psychological price levels, widening the divergence between buyers and sellers. In the short term, spot copper concentrate TCs still face downward pressure, with the market closely watching smelters' acceptance of deeply negative cargoes. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's copper concentrate imports in June 2026 were 2.335 million mt, down 1.10% MoM and edged up 0.03% YoY. From January to June 2026, cumulative imports of copper concentrates reached 14.609 million mt, edging down 0.9% YoY. Chile is currently being affected by a strong winter frontal system, with the main impact expected to be concentrated from July 16 to 17 and likely to persist through July 20–21. This weather event shows notable regional differences: moderate to heavy snowfall and strong winds are forecast for the high-altitude and mountainous areas of northern mining regions such as Antofagasta and Atacama, while central to southern Chile faces persistent heavy rainfall, raising the risk of localized flooding, landslides, and mudslides. The Chilean government has activated a preventive emergency response, and mining authorities have been communicating contingency plans with major mining enterprises. According to SMM’s communications with local industry participants, heavy snowfall and rainfall could cause short-term disruptions to road transport and port loading at some mine sites, with a risk of delays in the shipment pace of copper concentrates and copper cathode. The actual impact will depend on the duration of the weather and operating conditions at the major mines. On July 16, BHP released its production report, showing that group copper production in the fourth fiscal quarter ended June 30 was 491,900 mt, down 5% YoY and below the 516,200 mt recorded a year earlier, driven by lower output at the Escondida and Pampa Norte mines. For fiscal 2026, total group copper production was 1.95 million mt, down 3% YoY, a pullback from the 2.02 million mt in fiscal 2025 but the second consecutive year close to 2 million mt. Among them, Escondida—the world’s largest copper ore mine—produced 1.2612 million mt of copper on a 100% basis for the full year, down 3% YoY, mainly due to a decline in head grade at the beneficiation plant from 1.02% a year earlier to 0.90%. On July 17, SMM data on copper concentrates inventory at eleven ports showed 648,200 mt in physical content, down 42,000 mt from July 10. The main declines came from Fangchenggang Port and Qinzhou Port, down 30,000 mt and 21,000 mt WoW, respectively.

[SMM Analysis] Futures Recovery Spurs Phased Transactions and Arrival Constraints, Stainless Steel Inventory Stops Rising and Pulls Back SMM, July 16 – This week, stainless steel social inventory ended its previous inventory buildup trend, stopped rising and pulled back overall, with marginal easing of inventory pressure. Total inventories in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan declined notably, from 943,700 mt on July 9, 2026 to 921,300 mt at the latest period, down 2.37% WoW. The off-season inventory accumulation trend saw a phased reversal. During the week, SS futures strengthened and rose again, effectively repairing previously weak market sentiment. Coupled with spot price increases that created reasonable room for traders to offer discounts, the market’s “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” mentality was released intensively. Downstream end-user phased restocking demand kicked in, market transactions recovered markedly from the previous sluggish pattern, and destocking efficiency improved significantly. At the same time, typhoon weather disrupted regional logistics this week, restricting the pace of arrivals. Insufficient replenishment of spot supply in the market further tightened circulating resources from the supply side. Driven by the phased recovery in transactions and reduced arrivals, this successfully offset the inventory buildup pressure from weak off-season rigid demand, pushing social inventory to steadily pull back this week. Overall, the stronger futures repairing market sentiment, traders’ discounts promoting shipments, and typhoon-restricted arrivals were the key drivers behind the halt in rise and pullback of stainless steel inventories this week. Although real rigid demand from end-users during the off-season has not yet recovered materially and sustained transaction momentum remains insufficient, short-term sentiment-driven demand and circulation contraction formed an effective offset, effectively easing the previous inventory buildup pressure. At this stage, stainless…

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Stop Rising and Pull Back, Spot Prices Hold Steady while Transactions Cool According to SMM on July 17, the SS futures showed a subdued consolidation trend. Weighed down by the overall weakness in the nonferrous metals sector, SS futures moved lower simultaneously, with the most-traded SS contract closing at 14,645 yuan/mt. In the spot market, boosted by yesterday's SS futures gains, spot stainless steel prices were generally raised yesterday afternoon, with transactions gradually recovering. However, today's futures stopped rising and pulled back; although spot prices remained stable for the time being, transactions weakened. SS most-traded futures contract: At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was reported at 14,795 yuan/mt, up 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 225-575 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, the average price rose 100 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 75 yuan/mt in Foshan; for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi, prices were flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, prices in Wuxi were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices were flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, macro-wise, the US CPI data pulled back, leading to cooling inflation expectations and a modest recovery in market risk appetite. Additionally, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) clarified that additional nickel ore production quotas for this year would be only moderate and limited, signaling limited growth potential and a sustained tight supply pattern for raw materials. This provided solid underlying support for the spot market, driving SHFE nickel and SS futures to stop falling and rebound. Regarding spot cargo and inventory, steel mills held prices firm to underpin the market...

The year 2026 marks the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Against the backdrop of intensifying global macro volatility and China’s deepening high-quality development, the zinc industry is undergoing profound changes: tightness on the ore side and the release of smelting capacity are creating structural tension, diverging inventories in and outside China reflect the complex dynamics of supply-demand rebalancing, and technological innovation is emerging as a key driving force to resolve conflicts and reshape the landscape. Key areas under the 15th Five-Year Plan, such as new energy and new-type infrastructure, are injecting fresh momentum into traditional zinc consumption, while green, low-carbon development and the circular economy are also accelerating the restructuring of industrial logic, driven by technological innovation. With the joint support of upstream and downstream enterprises across the zinc industry chain, industry associations, and all relevant parties, the 2026 SMM Zinc Industry Conference and the 8th Hot-Dip Galvanizing Industry Development and Technological Innovation Forum, the 14th Zinc Salt, Zinc Oxide and Zinc Secondary Resources Development Forum, and the Cast Zinc Alloy Development Forum is about to be held on August 6–8 in Qingdao, Shandong. The conference, themed “Gathering Zinc Momentum, Building the Zinc Industry, Embarking on a New Journey,” will be driven by dual engines of macro perspectives and fundamental analysis, closely following the main theme of high-quality development under the 15th Five-Year Plan, and focusing on four major dimensions: macro policies, supply-demand pattern, global trade, and technological innovation. It will leverage technological breakthroughs to drive cost reduction and efficiency improvement, address market fluctuations through collaborative innovation, and jointly draw a new blueprint for the high-quality and sustainable development of the zinc industry. Shanghai Eagle Metal Materials Co., Ltd. will make a grand appearance at this event to discuss industry development trends with peers and jointly propel the zinc industry to new heights. Click to sign up now, witness and participate in this momentous and far-reaching industry gathering, and together create a brilliant new chapter! Eagle Metal—Eagle Metal is one of the world’s major commodity traders. Established in 2000 and headquartered in Shanghai, China, the group has branches in Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and other locations. The group primarily engages in services and operations along the non-ferrous metals industry chain. Its business scope covers copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silver, platinum and palladium, copper concentrates, lead concentrates, zinc concentrates, and more. Business activities include domestic trade in multiple commodities and international import and export, with operations spanning mainland China, Singapore, Hong Kong, London, Chicago, Thailand, South America, Africa and other regions. In addition to its core business, the group provides upstream and downstream clients with integrated trade, warehouse financing, logistics and transportation, and other risk management services. Adhering to the business philosophy of “model innovation, win-win cooperation,” the company has established enduring and in-depth partnerships with numerous large domestic and international smelters, mines, trading enterprises, and well-known banks. It has also repeatedly received honors such as “Contract-honoring and Trustworthy Unit,” “Excellent Partner,” “Best Partner,” and “Most Valuable Customer” awarded by national and Shanghai municipal authorities. Eagle Metal – In the course of its development, Eagle Metal has upheld the corporate philosophy of "virtue carries all things, and constant dripping wears away the stone"; it has remained true to its original aspiration and persisted in innovation, fueling growth through innovation and advancing development through growth. Keeping pace with the global economy, it actively participates in competition both in and outside China. Through outstanding quality services, it enhances client value and corporate value, and with firm steps, it contributes all its strength to the advancement of the non-ferrous metal industry! Contact Information Zinc Business Contact: Miao Hanying 15021533905 Zinc Business Contact: Shi Yang 18004502057 Long press or scan the QR code to register now 2026 SMM Zinc Conference

A Turkish-owned vessel carrying steel billets from India to the United Arab Emirates partially sank near Bandar Abbas in the Strait of Hormuz following a reported structural failure. The ship was transporting a total cargo of around 43,000 tonnes, including billets, copper and industrial components, with market estimates suggesting that a significant portion of the billet cargo may be lost or unrecoverable. The vessel reportedly settled in shallow water, but salvage operations are expected to be extremely difficult due to the regional security situation. Insurance claims may also face delays because damage assessments in the conflict-affected area could be challenging. Market participants said the UAE may need to seek alternative short-lead-time billet supplies to cover the disrupted cargo.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: US Fed Rate Policy Tone Tug-of-War; Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Moved Sideways in the Morning]

SMM, July 17 – Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,615/mt, rose to touch a high of $13,630/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to $13,533/mt, and finally settled at $13,543.5/mt, down 0.28%. Trading volume was 12,000 lots, open interest reached 242,000 lots, down 2,906 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 104,200 yuan/mt, edged up to 104,550 yuan/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to touch a low of 104,100 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 104,230 yuan/mt, down 0.2%. Trading volume reached 13,000 lots, open interest reached 132,000 lots, down 1,191 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation. On the macro front, the US-Iran conflict continued to escalate. Iran claimed that the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened due to US pressure, and the Revolutionary Guard warned that if the US makes a strategic mistake, regional energy exports could be disrupted. Reports said Iran had secretly ordered the Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US strikes Iran’s power facilities. Meanwhile, the US military carried out airstrikes on airports and transport hubs inside Iran. The White House said Iran is still willing to talk, but there was no sign of a softening in Iran’s position. Overall, although Middle East tensions remain high, expectations of US economic resilience dominated short-term sentiment, and copper prices edged lower. On the fundamentals front, supply remained tight, with both imports and domestic output providing insufficient replenishment. Demand-side consumption was weak, and downstream users only made essential restocking purchases during the off-season. As of Thursday, July 16, SMM data showed that copper inventories in major Chinese markets fell by 41,600 mt WoW to 123,400 mt. Total inventories were 19,900 mt lower than the 143,300 mt recorded in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to drift slightly lower today.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,615/mt, initially rose to hit a high of $13,630/mt, then drifted lower to $13,533/mt, and finally closed at $13,543.5/mt, down 0.28%. Trading volume was 12,000 lots, open interest stood at 242,000 lots, down 2,906 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 104,200 yuan/mt, initially edged up to 104,550 yuan/mt, then drifted lower to touch a low of 104,100 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 104,230 yuan/mt, down 0.2%. Trading volume was 13,000 lots, open interest stood at 132,000 lots, down 1,191 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long liquidation.

According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, over 20 provinces and cities nationwide, including Guangdong, Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan, as well as Chengmai County in Hainan, Lhasa City in Tibet, Huai'an City in Jiangsu, Jinjiang City in Fujian, and Urumqi City in Xinjiang, have introduced housing purchase subsidy policies. The biggest change in the above-mentioned policies is that, on top of the universal "everyone gets a share" inclusive bonus, the "customized gift package" is precisely targeted at specific groups. In the toolbox for regulating the real estate market, housing purchase subsidies are becoming increasingly refined and differentiated. The largest beneficiary group of the "customized gift package" remains high-level talent......

SMM, July 16: Domestic Bauxite: Supply disruptions push up domestic ore prices; alumina enterprises' long-term contract purchase prices rise overall Affected by coking coal-related incidents in Shanxi, mining in major domestic bauxite producing areas such as Shanxi and Henan faced some short-term disruptions, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Driven by supply tightening expectations, the domestic ore price center edged higher. Meanwhile, alumina prices remained at relatively high levels, and alumina enterprises' tolerance of rising raw material costs was moderate; in the short term, they mostly passively accepted the current ore prices. As of today, in Shanxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, VAT-exclusive EXW price at crushing plants was around 530-550 yuan/mt; in Henan, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, VAT-exclusive EXW price at crushing plants was around 500-540 yuan/mt; in Guiyang, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content, VAT-inclusive EXW price was 490-540 yuan/mt; in Guangxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content, VAT-exclusive EXW price at crushing plants was 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported Bauxite: Rising international oil prices drove up both mine costs and ocean freight rates, leading to diverging imported bauxite prices According to data as of July 10, weekly port departures of bauxite from major Guinean ports totaled 3.1869 million mt, down 219,400 mt from the previous week, with shipments basically stable. As US-Iran tensions heated up again, oil prices rose once more, and ocean freight rates from Guinea to China soon followed with an upward trend; market offers rose to the $34-35/mt range, and mine costs across various mines increased to varying degrees. Coupled with Guinean policy uncertainties and transport impacts from adverse weather, Guinean mines tightened control over bauxite shipments. In Australia, as of July 10, weekly port departures of bauxite from major Australian ports totaled 721,300 mt, down 346,800 mt from the previous week, a slight decline in shipments; further attention is needed on shipment pace from Australian mines and changes in port departures. As of July 10, China's bauxite port arrivals reached 3.9968 million mt, down 98,700 mt from the previous week; continued monitoring is required of the impact of elevated and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on future arrival pace and landed costs. In terms of prices, Guinean bauxite long-term contract quotations for July were in the $70-71.5/mt range, little changed from June. Meanwhile, bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained high, remaining relatively stable this week, with days of inventories at about 95 days, exerting some top pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, as transportation costs from Guinea to China rebounded and mine costs increased, coupled with the shipment reductions caused by the traditional rainy season and adverse weather, upstream producers and traders maintained firm quotes, remaining stable in the high price range of $70-72/mt; due to the dual impact of sustained high inventories and contracting profits, domestic alumina refineries lowered their intended transaction prices to $70/mt or lower; the upstream and downstream of the bauxite market experienced severe price divergences, market transactions slowed down, gradually returning to a state of bargaining. As of Thursday this week, a total of three bauxite transactions were reported: one deal of grade 45/3 Guinean bauxite was transacted at $70.5/mt CIF northern ports, with arrival expected in late August; one deal of grade 45/3 Guinean bauxite was transacted at $71/mt CIF northern ports; one deal of grade 45/3 Guinean bauxite was transacted at $72/mt CIF northern ports, with arrival expected from late July to early August. As of Thursday this week, Guinean bauxite FOB quotes were $38-40/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; Guinean bauxite CIF price was reported at $69-72/mt, with the average price falling by $0.5/mt from last Thursday; the SMM imported bauxite index price was reported at $70.36/mt, up $0.18/mt from last Thursday. Future bauxite prices will still depend on the cost situations of individual mines, the impact of Guinea's traditional rainy season and the government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments, and SMM will continue to closely monitor the market trends and transactions in the bauxite market. Overall, domestic ore market prices maintained the current level; meanwhile, inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained high (about 96 days), and the price negotiation between buyers and sellers continued; the uncertainty over Guinea's quota policy, the decline in shipments, and the traditional rainy season also exerted some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, due to the dual impact of costs and policy leading to reduced shipments, imported ore prices are expected to continue the high-level bargaining pattern; afterwards, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and trends in ocean freight rates.