Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Alvance British Aluminium has boosted output by ~10% at its Lochaber smelter in Fort William, Scotland (UK’s only primary aluminium plant), thanks to recent US tariff changes. The GFG Alliance-owned facility (48,000 tpy capacity, hydro-powered) now exports about half its production to the US for the first time. Managing Director Tom Uppington: “We increased production in response to shifting trade flows after US tariffs, entering the US market while serving UK and European customers.” President Trump set a 50% global tariff on steel/aluminium imports, but the UK secured a preferential 25% rate (vs. 50% for Canada), making UK metal more competitive. The US still relies on imports for automotive and aerospace sectors.

[SMM Hot Topic] Estimated “Cliff-Like” Drop in China’s Steel Exports—A Ramadan Pattern or a War Shock? As mentioned above, [Persian Gulf Shutdown? The Impact of the U.S.-Iran Conflict on Global Steel Trade] amid the US–Iran conflict, global steel trade was shaken and reshaped. Another topic that has recently been widely discussed in the market is: what impact will this war have on China’s total export volume? Before going into detail, it is important to remind everyone that the current focus has largely remained on geopolitical conflict, while often overlooking that this period coincides with Ramadan, a seasonal trough. Therefore, to quantify the war’s actual impact more accurately, SMM conducted corresponding “dehydration” adjustments based on ferrous panoramic shipping data. Most Direct Impact: A Deep Shortfall on the Shipping Side Data Source:SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping According to the table above, in the absence of war, during Ramadan 2025, China’s average weekly shipments to Gulf countries were about 327,000 mt, while the average weekly shipments in the month after Ramadan ended were 450,400 mt. Therefore, keeping average weekly shipments at around 300,000 mt during Ramadan is considered a “normal contraction” level. By further comparing the same-period data for 2026 and 2025, we can precisely calculate the quantified impact caused by the war. As of the latest date, in the first 20 days of Ramadan, China exported and shipped only 5,000 mt, with a weekly average of only 1,750 mt. Estimation logic: If there were no war, based on a neutral assessment using the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, total shipments in the first 20 days should have been about 930,000 mt; therefore, the war resulted in shipment losses of about 925,000 mt. Therefore, we can conclude that the more than 99% plunge on the shipping side was most likely caused by the war (route blockades, shipowners’ risk aversion), and the Ramadan factor is almost negligible in the face of such a massive decline. Delayed Effects on the Arrival Side Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In addition to the impact on the shipping side, SMM ’s ferrous panoramic shipping data also showed that after operations were suspended at multiple ports, a combination of factors—such as vessels being unable to berth and unload—led to a decline in the total volume of steel arriving at ports. As of the latest date, average weekly arrivals were about 220,200 mt, down by roughly 82,000 mt/week from 302,200 mt over the same period last year. Estimation logic: assuming no war impact and using a neutral assessment based on the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, cumulative arrivals in the first 20 days should have been about 863,400 mt, implying a cumulative shortfall of about 234,000 mt. Cause breakdown: it is expected that the decline on the arrivals side was not as pronounced as that on the shipments side, because among these 12 arriving vessels, most carried orders that had already been dispatched before the full outbreak of the war or in the early stage of the situation (Jan 25–Feb 25). Therefore, this 234,000 mt gap was mainly due to war-driven route detours (delays) and partial port shutdowns. Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In summary, based on the data, we can conclude that Ramadan was merely the “backdrop,” while the war was the “main cause.” If the impact were only from Ramadan, we should still have had about 300,000 mt of steel shipped to the Gulf each week. The reality, however, is that since Feb 18, our average weekly shipments have plunged to less than 2,000 mt. This means that, within the currently observed gap, shipment losses of more than 900,000 mt were entirely caused by war-related order stagnation or shipping lane disruptions. The 27% decline currently seen on the arrivals side is only the beginning; the real “vacuum period” will fully emerge in late March, during the latter part of Ramadan. At present, a phased contraction in China’s total steel exports to the Middle East has become a foregone conclusion. Does this mean the strong momentum of China’s full-year exports will come to a halt here? According to SMM steel export take-order data, last week, the total orders taken by 31 exporters were about 765,000 mt, up 20.76% MoM. Among them, export orders for long products were about 437,000 mt, up 56.07% MoM; export orders for sheets & plates were about 328,000 mt, down 7.21% MoM. Against the backdrop of rising export prices, this growth did not stem from a broad-based global economic recovery, but from forced shifts in trade flows driven by geopolitical conflicts. On the one hand, instability in Iran diverted Southeast Asian orders to China, driving a boom in steel billet exports; on the other hand, conflict in the Middle East pushed up shipping costs, and the surge in fuel prices directly caused physical disruptions along the trade chain. Even if there is overseas demand, the sharp rise in freight rates also weakened the pricing advantage of Chinese steel products. SMM Steel Export Orders Taken - 31 Companies (10kt) Data Source:SMM Weekly Steel Export Report Therefore, although the reduction in exports to the Middle East has already been confirmed by the data, assessing its impact on China’s total exports for the full year still needs to be based on a “global rebalancing” perspective: is the “gap” created after demand in Gulf countries is constrained being converted into “incremental volume” in other markets? What is the actual absorption capacity of these emerging incremental markets? Can they offset the monthly shipping loss of 900,000 mt from the Middle East? Please continue to follow SMM Steel Industry Research; we will regularly update global shipping developments… Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated again recently, as the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to intensify, drawing renewed global attention to energy transportation security in the Gulf region.Given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the development of the situation, market risks are clearly skewed to the upside. This article provides a brief analysis of how the current conflict may affect the copper market going forward.

Recently, the Malaysian stainless steel market has been roiled by supply chain disruptions as multiple shipments of cold-rolled stainless steel from Indonesian Tsingshan faced severe customs clearance hurdles. This abrupt "stuck at customs" situation triggered strong concerns among local downstream processors regarding supply stability and spot price volatility. However, a recent gazette issued by the Malaysian Federal Government has finally turned the tide, though the underlying policy chess game is far from over. The Resolution: Official Exemption for Specific Indonesian Entity On March 6, 2026, the Attorney General's Chambers of Malaysia officially published the Customs (Anti-Dumping Duties) Order 2026 (Amendment) Order 2026 under gazette P.U. (A) 120. This document provides a crucial correction to the anti-dumping policy regarding Indonesia. Under the amended schedule for "The Republic of Indonesia," the broad category of "Other producer or exporter" has been redefined to explicitly exclude PT Indonesia Ruipu Nickel and Chrome Alloy (a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group) . Effective Period and Retroactivity: The amendment is backdated, officially effective from January 15, 2026, to April 23, 2026 . Affected Products and HS Codes: The policy applies to cold-rolled stainless steel in coils, sheets, or any other form with a thickness of not more than 6.5 millimeters. The specific Malaysian Harmonized System (HS) Codes are: 7219.31.00 00 7219.32.00 00 7219.33.00 00 7219.34.00 00 7219.35.00 00 7220.20.10 00 7220.20.90 00 (Note: Excludes cold-rolled stainless steel with bright annealed (BA), No. 8 mirror finish, embossed, rigidised, etched, or coloured finishes, or those with a hardness value exceeding 250HV). Historical Trace: Was the "Customs Hold-Up" an Administrative Glitch? SMM's review of historical gazettes reveals that Indonesian Tsingshan had long held a "tax-free shield." Back on April 26, 2021, when Malaysia enacted the Customs (Anti-Dumping Duties) Order 2021 [P.U. (A) 197], which imposed a 5-year anti-dumping duty on cold-rolled stainless steel from Indonesia and Vietnam, PT Indonesia Ruipu Nickel and Chrome Alloy was explicitly exempted from the onset. However, as the policy entered a renewal/transition phase in early 2026 (post-January 15), it appears an administrative oversight occurred. The exemption clause was not automatically carried over, causing incoming shipments to be slapped with the maximum 34.82% duty designated for "Other Indonesian producers," leading to the customs blockage. The retroactive amendment published on March 6 essentially rectifies this glitch, reinstating the company's exemption status and allowing the stranded cargoes to clear customs rapidly. The Ultimate Suspense: The "April 23" Sunset Countdown While the immediate clearance crisis is resolved, SMM notes that a much larger policy countdown is looming. The "April 23" deadline set in the latest gazette is not arbitrary. According to the original 2021 directive, Malaysia's 5-year anti-dumping measure against Indonesian stainless steel has a statutory expiration date of April 23, 2026 . This means the entire Southeast Asian stainless steel trade network will face a critical Sunset Review node in just over a month: Import Rush: With only a month left in this guaranteed "tax-free window," Indonesian exporters will likely expedite shipments. This could result in a short-term flood of Indonesian spot materials into the Malaysian market, pressuring local prices. Policy Reshuffle: Post-April 23, if the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI) does not extend the anti-dumping duties, other Indonesian mills will regain low-cost access to Malaysia. Conversely, given Malaysia's strong protectionist stance—evidenced by the 2023 administrative review [P.U. (A) 225] which levied duties against China, Korea, and Thailand—if MITI extends the measures, can Tsingshan maintain its exclusive exemption in the new cycle? This decision will dictate ASEAN stainless steel pricing dynamics in the second half of the year. SMM will continue to track MITI's upcoming sunset review announcements and customs data to monitor shifts in Southeast Asian stainless steel trade flows.

In 2025, driven by supply contraction and multiple demand growth , the global sulfur market saw supply-demand mismatch throughout the year, with prices rising sharply to new highs in recent years. Entering 2026, sulfur’s byproduct nature will constrain supply; Russia’s supply recovery will be slow; the Middle East will centrally control prices; the resonance of rigid demand from spring plowing and new energy “scrambling for sulfur,” together with heightened shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, will drive the global sulfur market to continue in a tight balance, keep the price center at elevated levels, and further reshape the regional supply-demand pattern. 2025 Review: Widening Supply-Demand Gap, Sharp Price Increase (I) Supply Side: Pronounced Rigid Contraction, Intensified Regional Supply Divergence According to the SMM survey, current global sulfur capacity is approximately 85 million mt. The entire industry is operating at close to full capacity, but incremental growth is limited, with annual production at around 80 million mt. As the core of global sulphur supply (with total Middle East production accounting for over 30% of the global total), some resources are prioritised for local markets and emerging markets such as Indonesia (long-term contracts first + high-price diversion). Resources exported to traditional demand countries have been heavily diverted, exacerbating tightness in resource circulation. Meanwhile, Russia, as a core global sulphur producer, has shifted from a net exporter to a net importer due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Coupled with shipping disruptions, geopolitical disturbances, and capacity release falling short of expectations, globally circulating resources remain persistently tight, driving sulphur prices higher. (II) Demand Side: Stable Traditional Rigid Demand +Growth in Emerging New Energy, with a Significant Increase in Total Volume In 2025, global sulfur demand presented a dual-engine pattern of “traditional rigid demand providing a floor, and emerging demand surging”: agriculture remained the largest consumption mainstay, with phosphate fertiliser production at its core forming a solid base of demand; traditional chemical demand such as titanium dioxide and caprolactam grew steadily; the new energy track saw explosive growth , becoming the core engine boosting incremental sulfur consumption. Together, these three sectors drove total sulfur demand to keep rising, in stark contrast to the rigid contraction on the supply side caused by its oil-and-gas associated nature. Compared with previous years, the most notable change in the global sulfur market in 2025 was the explosive growth in new energy demand, which had become the central driver of incremental demand. Sulfur consumption in the new energy sector was highly concentrated in two major tracks—LFP and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP)—and formed a clear global regional division of labor: LFP production was highly concentrated in China, while MHP was focused in Indonesia; the two production hubs jointly dominated sulfur demand for new energy. Against the backdrop of an accelerating global green energy transition, China’s NEV and energy storage industries have continued to expand. Leveraging core strengths of high safety, long cycle life, and significant cost advantages, LFP has become the preferred cathode material for large-scale energy storage and NEVs, boosting the continued expansion of domestic capacity. According to the SMM database, global LFP production reached 3.77 million mt in 2025, of which China accounted for 3.75 million mt , representing more than 99%, corresponding to a boost in total sulfur demand of over 3 million mt . Meanwhile, relying on world-class laterite nickel ore resource endowments, Indonesia has vigorously developed HPAL hydrometallurgy, converting low-grade nickel ore into high value-added battery-grade nickel raw materials (MHP). By extending the industry chain and enhancing product value-added, it has become deeply embedded in the global power battery supply chain. According to the SMM database, Indonesia’s MHP production reached 443,900 mt Ni in 2025 , directly boosting sulfur consumption by over 5 million mt; and after planned capacity comes on stream in 2026, Indonesia’s share of global MHP capacity will further rise from 67% to 77% , becoming the most explosive source of incremental sulfur demand globally and a key variable reshaping global sulfur trade flows. Outlook for 2026: The Supply-Demand Gap Further Widens, and Prices Hover at Highs In 2026, the global sulfur market further maintained a tight balance, with supply growth failing to keep pace with demand growth and the supply-demand gap widening further, becoming the core factor supporting prices fluctuating at highs. （I）Supply Side: Limited Growth, Constrained by Multiple Factors As a by-product of oil and gas extraction and refining, sulfur’s supply capability is highly dependent on the level of activity in global crude oil and natural gas production, while also being directly affected by geopolitical conditions, the smoothness of international shipping, and changes in trade policies. Disruptions at any stage will significantly impact the stability of global sulfur supply, the pace of price movements, and the distribution of trade flows. In 2026, the global sulfur supply side will exhibit operating characteristics of “ constrained growth and a diverging regional landscape .” According to the SMM survey, incremental global sulfur supply in 2026 was only about 2.6 million mt, including about 500,000 mt in China and about 2.1 million mt in the Middle East. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), under the long-term trend of the global energy transition, global refining capacity and crude oil throughput are expected to enter a peak plateau around 2035 and then gradually pull back, which will fundamentally constrain the long-term growth potential of sulphur supply. According to the SMM survey, global crude oil demand growth in 2025 only remained at around 1%, with relatively weak growth momentum. As the core producing region for high-sulphur crude oil globally, the Middle East saw OPEC+ confirm a temporary pause in production increases in Q1 2026, further suppressing upstream supply elasticity. Meanwhile, Iran has long been subject to US sanctions, with crude oil production and exports continuously constrained. The most-traded refineries in Russia continued to come under impact, with both production stability and logistics channels significantly affected; sulphur output and export capacity were sharply constrained and are expected to be difficult to recover in H1 2026, further exacerbating the tight globalised sulphur supply landscape. In early 2026, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East intensified, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz rose markedly ; nearly 50% of global sulfur trade volumes passed through this corridor. Vessel detours, longer voyages, and a sharp rise in war-risk insurance premiums directly pushed up the landed cost of sulfur. In 2025, Middle East sulfur FOB prices climbed from about $170/mt at the beginning of the year to the latest level of about $520/mt , an increase of more than 200%. Meanwhile, continued turmoil in the Red Sea further extended shipping cycles and lifted overall import costs. Disrupted logistics and rising costs created dual pressure, reducing effective market circulation and slowing the pace of arrivals, becoming a key factor supporting sulfur prices fluctuate at highs. The natural gas sector brought marginal improvement to supply: according to the latest quarterly report released today by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global natural gas demand in 2025 was about 1.3% . As a substantial increase in LNG supply eased market fundamentals and drove strong demand growth in Asia, global demand growth in 2026 will accelerate to about 2% . New projects in the US, Canada, and Qatar will come on stream in succession, and LNG supply is expected to increase by 7%, i.e., 40 billion m³. With natural gas consumption rising steadily, sulfur production as a by-product of natural gas desulfurization will increase accordingly, providing some supplementation to overall supply. According to the SMM survey, global sulphur production growth slowed to 2.28% in 2025. In 2026, supply-side expansion will be limited, and supply growth will remain at a low level, with total annual supply expected to reach 82-83 million mt. (II)Demand Side: New Energy-Driven, with Continuous Structural Optimization Global sulphur demand in 2026 will sustain strong growth, with demand growth significantly outpacing supply growth . The key drivers are underpinned by rigid agricultural demand and a growth in incremental growth from new energy. According to the SMM survey, global phosphate fertiliser consumption will grow steadily at an annual rate of about 1.6%. As the largest downstream demand segment for sulphur, it provides a solid foundation for the overall market; demand in the chemical sector will also expand steadily at an annual rate of about 4%–6%. The most noteworthy incremental growth in 2026 will come from the concentrated ramp-up across the global new energy industry chain. According to the SMM database, newly built and commissioned LFP capacity in China in 2026 will exceed 2.5 million mt ; together with the release of existing capacity, the industry’s effective capacity is expected to surpass 9 million mt, driving a sharp increase in demand for high-purity sulphuric acid and sulphur. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s nickel hydrometallurgy projects are accelerating, adding about 400,000 mt Ni of new MHP capacity. Based on its sulphur intensity of as high as 11.7 mt, this will generate incremental sulphur demand on the order of 1 million mt, creating a global “competition for sulphur” alongside global phosphate fertiliser, traditional chemicals, and new energy materials, further exacerbating tight global sulphur supply. SMM has launched SMM CIF Indonesia Sulfur and Sulfur (Solid) price assessments for market reference. SMM CIF Indonesia Sulfur Definition:CIF Indonesian main ports; Quality: Sulfur 99.5% min, Particle; Price Origin: Indonesia. Sulfur (Solid) price Definition: Ex-works, China; Quality: Sulfur（S) 99.00% min，conforming to GB/T 2449-2006; Price Origin: China.

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

February 2026 proved to be a pivotal month of challenge and adjustment for the global stainless steel market. Driven by the compounding pressures of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), intensifying geopolitical trade friction, significantly tightened raw material quotas, and sudden supply chain disruptions, the market navigated a complex landscape.

28th of Feburary: According to SMM statistics, in February 2026, overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 12.41% month-on-month and 3.66% year-on-year; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises edged down by 0.01 percentage point month-on-month to 76.17%, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year. Overall, overseas alumina production was relatively stable during the month. By region: Asia: On February 6, Lam Dong Province in Vietnam approved the expansion plans for two alumina projects under Vinacomin, with a total investment of VND 59.855 trillion (approximately USD 2.3 billion). One is to add a production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons at the Nhan Co alumina plant in Dak Nong Province, which is expected to be commissioned in 2030 with an operating period of 30 years. The other is to expand the Tan Rai alumina plant in Lam Dong Province, planning to build a second production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons. Construction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2030 and operation to begin in the fourth quarter. According to SMM research, Vietnam's local bauxite resources are relatively abundant, providing stable raw material support for the commissioning of these projects. It is expected that they will have significant cost advantages, potentially enhancing the export competitiveness of alumina in the long term. Europe: In order to reduce the negative environmental impact of road transportation, Alteo alumina plant has partnered with HES Fos, planning to relocate most of its logistics operations from the port of Marseille to the port of Fos-sur-Mer. Under the agreement, HES Fos will be responsible for unloading ships, storing hydrated alumina, and subsequently transporting it to Alteo's plant in Gardanne. In the future, HES Fos will renovate an existing clinker warehouse specifically for storing hydrated alumina to ensure the smooth operation of the supply chain. The construction of this dedicated facility has entered the execution phase and is expected to be put into operation in 2029, providing reliable support for the logistics and storage of alumina in the long term. Australia: On February 13, Australian company Alpha HPA announced the groundbreaking of the second phase of its planned world's largest single-site high-purity alumina refinery. The project will utilize the company's proprietary solvent extraction and refining technology to commercially produce high-purity alumina products with a purity of 99.99%, providing key raw materials for industries such as global lithium batteries, LED lights, and semiconductor manufacturing. Middle East: On February 28, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, with an attack on Tehran, the capital of Iran. Currently, no shutdowns of alumina plants in the region have been reported. According to SMM statistics, Iran has only one alumina plant, which is equipped with bauxite production capacity. If geopolitical conflicts further intensify, the plant's production could be affected, and the possibility of output cuts or shutdowns cannot be ruled out. Data show that Iran's annual alumina output is about 250,000 tons, and bauxite output is about 650,000 tons. Its alumina production cannot meet the domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum production, and it has long relied on imports, with India being the main source. Alumina imports from India account for 40% to 80% of Iran's total imports. Outlook for March 2026: Overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina is expected to increase by 12.65% month-on-month and decrease slightly by 2.38% year-on-year; the operating rate is expected to be 77.45%, up 0.01 percentage point month-on-month and down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the international political situation on alumina production.