Trade data for the first quarter of 2026 shows a 31% year-on-year decline in Russian coal exports to Turkey. This reduction is attributed to increased domestic Turkish production and a shift in trade defense policies that favor imports from other European and Australian suppliers. The decline in this critical corridor highlights the shifting trade routes for metallurgical coal as international markets react to geopolitical tensions and the ongoing war, which continues to keep commodity price volatility high.

War damage to Iran’s key steel mills threatens ~14 Mt of capacity, sharply reducing crude steel output and exportable supply. While domestic demand remains relatively stable, energy shortages and logistics disruptions amplify losses, tightening regional supply, supporting semi-finished steel prices, and reshaping trade flows.

Gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the largest component of global central bank reserves for the first time since the mid-1990s, marking a significant shift in the structure of the international monetary system, Bloomberg reports.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Correct Sharply, Alloy Enterprises' Sentiment to Hold Prices Firm Weakens] Spot market, aluminum prices corrected significantly last Friday, with A00 aluminum down 200 yuan/mt to 24,660 yuan/mt and SMM ADC12 also down 200 yuan/mt to 24,350 yuan/mt. Some producers attempted to hold prices firm in the morning, limiting the decline in offers; however, as futures continued to fall, the sentiment to hold prices firm dissipated, and the market entered a broad decline. On transactions, downstream restocking willingness remained weak, with only just-in-time procurement maintained, while the widening spot-futures price spread spurred some improvement in trader activity. Approaching Chinese New Year, downstream demand is contracting, and fundamental support is limited, but with high aluminum scrap costs and phased supply tightening, downside room for prices is constrained. Secondary aluminum alloy prices are expected to hover at highs in the near term.

On April 24, 2025, the World Bank (hereinafter referred to as the Bank) held the 111th meeting of the Development Committee in Washington, US, during which the report "Jobs: The Path to Prosperity" was reviewed and approved. The meeting was chaired by the Chair of the Development Committee, Swedish Minister of Finance Elisabeth Svantesson, and attended by representatives of the 25 constituencies of the Bank, World Bank President Ajay Banga, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, and World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. China's Minister of Finance and World Bank Governor Lan Fo'an attended and delivered a speech, accompanied by Vice Minister of Finance and World Bank Alternate Governor Liao Min. All parties broadly supported the Bank in leveraging its financial and knowledge resources to stimulate private sector development, focusing on key areas such as infrastructure, energy, and manufacturing to create more jobs for developing countries. All parties expected the Bank to accelerate the implementation of its reform roadmap, enhance operational efficiency, and provide more development financing. All parties supported the Bank in advancing the 2025 equity review in accordance with the Lima Principles. Lan Fo'an stated that China appreciates the Bank's efforts to promote employment as a goal, laying a solid foundation for developing countries to eradicate poverty and achieve shared prosperity. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the need to increase resource investment in trade, investment, and development cooperation, strengthen development institutions, build more bridges of cooperation, and reduce "small yards with high walls," enabling more developing countries to enjoy better lives and achieve modernization. Currently, trade protection policies pose significant risks to global poverty reduction and development efforts. China calls on the Bank and other international organizations to advocate for principles of non-discrimination and free trade, jointly safeguarding an open and cooperative international environment. Lan Fo'an pointed out that China is both a beneficiary and a contributor to global economic integration. In recent years, China's contribution to global economic growth has remained around 30%. Amid the current complex external environment, China will adopt more proactive and effective macro policies to achieve its annual growth targets and continue to bring stability and momentum to the global economy. China adheres to the basic national policy of reform and opening up, has granted zero-tariff treatment to products from all least-developed countries with which it has diplomatic relations, and is willing to further open its doors to share its vast market with the world, achieving mutual benefit and win-win outcomes. During the meeting, Lan Fo'an also attended the Ministerial Meeting of the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, exchanging views with various parties on addressing issues such as the sovereign debt vulnerabilities and liquidity challenges of developing countries.

The EU is considering relaxing methane emission rules for US natural gas imports. On April 21, three informed sources revealed to Reuters that the EU is studying how to ease methane emission regulations for US natural gas exports in an attempt to avoid a trade war with US President Donald Trump. Trump has repeatedly stated that the EU should purchase more US oil and natural gas to reduce its trade surplus with the US. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, indicated that the EU might increase its procurement of US liquefied natural gas as the EU aims to cease using Russian natural gas by 2027. Sources said that, as part of exploring energy options to assist in trade negotiations with the US, the European Commission is considering flexibility in applying EU methane rules, which could benefit US liquefied natural gas exporters.

SHFE tin experienced reduced volatility today after significant fluctuations yesterday, with the futures market initially declining before rebounding. The most-traded contract rose by 3.62%, closing at 257,450 yuan/mt. The resumption of operations at the Bisie mine in the DRC has alleviated the tight supply of tin ore, but the supply remains constrained until the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar. In the short term, tin prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of the non-ferrous metals sector. Since Q1, domestic and overseas tin ingot inventory trends have diverged. Domestic social inventory has continued to accumulate due to high tin prices suppressing demand and relatively high production levels, while LME inventory has been declining due to low supply. This week, tin prices experienced a significant decline, leading to improved spot trade in the domestic market. Social inventory of tin ingots is expected to destock, and the overall performance of tin fundamentals will depend on when tin mines in Myanmar resume production, given the resilience in consumption. Recently, tin prices bottomed out and rebounded, with some smelters holding back cargoes, resulting in limited actual transactions. Traders actively sold goods, reporting active downstream inquiries and stockpiling at low prices, leading to heated spot trades. Downstream feedback indicated significant price volatility, with some end-users remaining cautious while others entered the market to stockpile at low prices, primarily for just-in-time procurement. Overall order conditions have slightly improved, but future consumption strength will depend on downstream order-taking and subsequent production. Regarding the future market, Galaxy Futures commented that Indonesia's tin export policy, shifting from a single rate to a cumulative rate (significantly higher), may soon be implemented. The final policy situation will be closely monitored, as the rate increase could significantly impact local mining costs. Currently, LME tin prices remain below the levels before the rise caused by the suspension of tin mines in the DRC. With the easing of overseas macro panic sentiment and ongoing supply uncertainties in Myanmar and Indonesia, although the supply-demand imbalance has marginally weakened, the downside for tin prices is expected to be relatively limited.

【Copper】 SHFE copper surged and then retreated from above 82,000 yuan on Wednesday. Spot copper was at 82,655 yuan today, with a discount in Shanghai and a narrowing to 130 yuan/mt in Guangdong. Overseas investment banks have significant differences in their views on next week's tariffs. SHFE copper shows signs of short-term adjustment, but the pullback is expected to be limited during the peak season, with mid- and downstream players pricing on demand. 【Aluminum & Alumina】 SHFE aluminum continued to fluctuate today, with spot prices maintaining a slight discount. Over the past week, social inventories of aluminum ingots and billets decreased by 35,000 mt and 13,000 mt, respectively, with apparent demand slightly stronger than expected. The market anticipates peak season consumption, but spot feedback remains tepid, and aluminum billet processing fees remain low. After a significant cost reduction, higher profits require a larger deficit expectation. In the short term, SHFE aluminum faces resistance at 21,000 yuan, with support at the low of the recent one-month range of 20,500 yuan, suggesting a sideways movement. Alumina operating capacity fluctuates at historically high levels, with expanded production cuts and maintenance failing to alter the long-term loose trend. Miners show strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, with Guinea ore still at $90. As some northern alumina companies face cash cost losses, the decline in spot alumina may slow before ore prices loosen further, with limited upside for futures, focusing on resistance at the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. 【Zinc】 Overseas fundamental data continues to improve, supporting LME zinc's stronger performance compared to the domestic market, with spot zinc imports at a loss of over 1,500 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc fluctuates at high levels, with downstream players cautious and some traders lowering premiums to sell. The market awaits the outcome of the new US tariffs on April 2, with overseas zinc consumption under pressure and domestic consumption not exceeding expectations. Long and short funds are battling around 24,200 yuan/mt, with zinc concentrate TCs rebounding from lows. Domestic smelters have turned profitable, and expectations for production increases are strong, but SHFE zinc lacks rebound momentum. However, with the benchmark TC negotiation results pending, cost side and downstream rigid demand still provide support below, suggesting SHFE zinc will likely fluctuate between 23,500-24,200 yuan/mt. 【Lead】 LME lead continued to consolidate, with the spot import window remaining closed. The spread between futures and spot prices is 215 yuan/mt, still unfavorable for SHFE warrant outflows, passively strengthening regional tightness in lead ingot supply, with relatively loose supply in South China. Secondary refined lead suppliers follow the market, with mainstream sources at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead average price, with larger discounts in Hunan, at a discount of 150 yuan/mt against the SMM 0# zinc average price. Battery replacement demand weakens, with slow inventory digestion by dealers. Battery companies maintain promotional efforts, and some plan to take holidays at month-end to avoid inventory buildup. SHFE lead lacks further upward momentum, with short-term focus on resistance near 17,880 yuan/mt. 【Nickel & Stainless Steel】 SHFE nickel's rebound met resistance, with active market trading. Jinchuan's premium rebounded to 2,000 yuan, while Russian nickel is at a discount of 25 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel at a discount of 100 yuan. High-grade NPI prices remain strong, with Indonesian ore still influencing raw material pricing, with the latest quote at 1,027 yuan per mtu. In terms of inventory, NPI inventory dropped by 6,000 mt to 23,000 mt, refined nickel inventory fell by 1,900 mt to 47,000 mt, and stainless steel inventory slightly decreased to 990,000 mt. After the price drop, NPI remains the main support on the cost side, with strong support estimated near 130,000 yuan. Technically, SHFE nickel has not weakened yet, waiting for short opportunities to mature. 【Tin】 SHFE tin traded between 275,000-280,000 yuan during the daytime session, with Wa State continuing to arrange resumption of production. Spot tin was at 278,200 yuan today, with attention on LME tin inventory and premium/discount changes in the evening. SHFE tin has been recommended for mid- and downstream players to price on demand near 275,000 yuan this week. In the context of supply being more easily priced quickly, it is recommended to focus more on the demand side, with 280,000-285,000 yuan considered the high-price zone.

In December, the market underwent a structural reversal, with copper wire rod exports under processing trade increasing tenfold MoM. [SMM Analysis]: According to the announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on the adjustment of export tax rebate policies, starting from December 1, 2024, export tax rebates for aluminum semis, copper semis, and chemically modified animal, plant, or microbial oils and fats will be canceled. Since the end of November, the domestic copper wire rod export market has shifted from Ordinary Trade to processing trade, paving the way for future export market adjustments. Currently, the full-year 2024 customs data on imports and exports has been updated. What are the actual market changes? Below is a detailed analysis:

SMM September 20: As global manufacturing gradually recovers, the core application areas of tin ingots, such as electronics and the automotive industry, show strong demand, indicating that tin ingot consumption is likely to further increase. However, potential risks to the global economy, such as inflation, trade protectionism, and geopolitical tensions, may adversely affect the tin market, exacerbating tin ingot price volatility and impacting exporters' decisions and the supply-demand balance in the market.