Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

According to CMOC's official WeChat: Recently, after CMOC completed the acquisition of the Brazilian gold mine project, four gold mines located in Maranhão, Bahia, and Minas Gerais states immediately entered full operation. In January this year, except for the RDM gold mine which had its crusher maintenance, originally scheduled for February, moved up to January, affecting production, the Aurizona, Santa Luz, and Fazenda gold mines all exceeded their monthly production targets. Previously, to smoothly take over the Brazilian gold mine project, CMOC Brazil promptly initiated preparations, working with the project team to systematically review comprehensive, technical, operational, and financial aspects, advancing work handover, process integration, and system alignment according to a list, while simultaneously conducting cultural promotion and ideological communication for front-line employees. The handover was not simply about "changing the sign." Through the niobium and phosphate sector employees, CMOC Brazil conveyed the company's corporate culture, management philosophy and model, and strategic development vision to the original team, allowing them to familiarize themselves and integrate into the new work environment early, enhancing understanding and trust, and welcoming the new phase with a more positive and composed mindset. This approach of "preparing in advance and stabilizing hearts first" helped the gold mine project employees maintain a stable mindset and normal work pace during the transition period. Their quick recognition of the company's management philosophy naturally followed. After completing the handover, the company's management and technical teams conducted a two-week systematic survey of the four gold mines, thoroughly understanding the current status of each production and operation link. The four gold mines taken over span three major states in Brazil, with the farthest mine being over 2,100 kilometers apart in a straight line, geographically dispersed, with inconvenient transportation and significant climate differences. Facing these objective challenges, the company, through on-site surveys, discussions, and specialized seminars, quickly grasped the frontline demands and critical issues needing urgent resolution. Based on this, five main tasks for 2026 were identified: in production organization, ensuring safe and stable operations at all mines to meet monthly and annual plans, while also preparing for resource succession; in exploration and reserve increase, scientifically and reasonably arranging geological exploration, seizing opportunities to expand and upgrade, providing technical support for extending the service life and expanding the scale of the mines, and systematically exploring greenfield projects to lay the foundation for long-term development; in capital expenditure, systematically planning and prioritizing key projects such as tailings dam safety upgrades; additionally, strengthening financial and asset management to ensure compliant operations; optimizing contract and service procurement management systems, initiating tenders for key projects, and achieving a smooth transition in management processes. Through comprehensive takeover and stable production and operation in January, the Brazilian gold mines have entered a new phase of autonomous operation. In the future, based on the development philosophy of safety, greenness, harmony, and sharing, Brazil's gold mines will continue to optimize management in addressing local challenges, laying a solid foundation for sustainable development.

[SMM Analysis: The "Key Anchor Point" in Great Power Rivalry: The US "Treasury Plan" and the Resource Reshuffle in Latin America] As the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project in Ecuador, developed by a Chinese enterprise, remains stuck in a "built but awaiting approval" deadlock, ten thousand kilometers away in Washington, the US Export-Import Bank, together with the President, is announcing a historic supply chain security initiative called the "Treasury Plan." In the pause and the start, a global covert battle over critical minerals such as copper, lithium, cobalt, and gallium is moving from behind the scenes to the forefront.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: AI Macro Sentiment Recedes Again, Triggering Market Downward Pressure, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Falls Over 5%]

[SMM Analysis: Key Anchor in Great Power Rivalry: The U.S. "Project Vault" and the Changing Resource Landscape in Latin America] While the second phase of Chinese company's Mirador copper mine in Ecuador remains mired in a 'completed but awaiting approval' deadlock, 10,000 kilometers away in Washington, the President, alongside the Export-Import Bank of the United States, is announcing a historic supply chain security initiative named 'Project Vault.'

This week, stainless steel spot prices remained stable, but production costs increased, further narrowing the profit margins of stainless steel mills. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the raw material prices of the day, the full cost profit margin fell to -0.58% this week; if calculated using the cost of raw material inventory, the margin reached 1.78%. On the cost side for nickel-based raw materials, SHFE nickel futures were driven higher mid-week by news of nickel mine approvals in Indonesia; high-grade NPI rose in tandem with the movement in SHFE nickel futures and expectations of tight nickel ore supply, which revived trading activity in the market as the Chinese New Year holiday approached—even though stainless steel mills had largely completed their procurement and stockpiling, traders held strong bullish sentiment. As of Friday this week, the price of high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade increased by 21.5 yuan per mtu, settling at 1,051.5 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, trading at scrapyards gradually halted as merchants closed for the holiday, leading to a complete suspension of market activity and stable prices. Although stainless steel scrap holds an economic advantage over high-grade NPI, this advantage has not yet translated into price movements; although SS futures strengthened on news related to Indonesian nickel mines, the impact on the stainless steel scrap market was limited. Trading in February is expected to remain stagnant, with the key focus after the holiday being the pace of demand recovery; the market overall maintains optimistic expectations. As of Friday this week, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai remained steady, with the latest offer around 9,650 yuan/mt. On the cost side for chromium-based raw materials, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their stable trend this week. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, most stainless steel mills had completed their stockpiling, and trading of high-carbon ferrochrome essentially stalled; given that current prices are already at high levels, they are expected to remain stable before the holiday. As of Friday this week, the price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia held steady WoW, settling at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Trade in a Narrow Range with Low Volume Before the Holiday, AI Sentiment Recovery Drives Prices to Hold Up Slightly Stronger]

[Elevra and Mangrove Lithium Sign Non-Binding MOU for Spodumene Concentrates Offtake] North American lithium producer Elevra Lithium Limited ("Elevra") is pleased to announce the signing of a non-binding memorandum of understanding to supply spodumene concentrates produced by NAL to Mangrove Lithium ("Mangrove"). Elevra and Mangrove may enter into a binding definitive agreement in the future, subject to Mangrove reaching a final investment decision on the construction of its lithium conversion facility by June 2027 and the parties agreeing on the final terms of the agreement. Under the terms of the non-binding MOU, Elevra and Mangrove intend to negotiate a definitive agreement whereby Elevra would supply Mangrove with up to 144,000 mt of spodumene concentrates annually at market-related prices, with floor and ceiling prices, ensuring NAL generates positive cash flow at any stage of the pricing cycle. The proposed supply has an initial term of five years, commencing in 2028, and is expected to ramp up to the full annual volume of 144,000 mt by 2030, representing approximately 46% of projected sales. Mangrove plans to process the spodumene concentrates into battery-grade lithium hydroxide in Eastern Canada to support the establishment of a resilient domestic battery supply chain in Canada. Mangrove's designed annual capacity is 20,000 mt of battery-grade lithium, equivalent to the demand for 500,000 EVs. Source: https://news.smm.cn/ [Albemarle Announces Idling of Kemerton Lithium Hydroxide Processing Plant on February 11 Local Time] Albemarle decided to immediately idle and place into a state of care and maintenance the operational Train 1 production line at its Kemerton plant in Western Australia. This represents a further contraction following the idling of Train 2 in 2024 and the halting of the Train 3 and 4 expansion projects. Although lithium prices have recovered recently, the levels are not enough to support the cost pressures associated with hard-rock lithium conversion operations in the West. This move aims to improve financial flexibility and preserve future options. It is expected to have an accretive effect on adjusted EBITDA starting from Q2 2026, without affecting the sales target for the year, as customer demand will be met through other channels. Albemarle emphasized that its upstream lithium mine interests and exploration rights in Australia, such as Greenbushes and Wodgina, remain unaffected and are still a strategic core. Source: https://www.albemarle.com [Ultra-Thin, Compact Lithium-Ion Rechargeable Battery "EnerCera" Supports Tohoku University's Tsunami Balloon Project Demonstration Experiment] NGK Insulators, Ltd. (hereinafter "NGK") announced that it supported the demonstration experiment for Tohoku University's tsunami balloon project by manufacturing and supplying its ultra-thin, compact lithium-ion rechargeable battery, EnerCera®. The project aims to establish a new disaster prevention system that automatically deploys balloon-type evacuation markers during tsunamis, visually indicating the locations of tsunami evacuation facilities, such as evacuation towers and evacuation buildings, from the air. EnerCera powers the light sources installed in the balloons, making the evacuation sites clearly visible at night or under poor visibility conditions. In the demonstration experiment, EnerCera was used as the power source for the balloon-type evacuation marker lighting unit, which activated immediately after a tsunami. The experiment verified whether sufficient brightness was achieved when the balloons were deployed and whether the system met practical usage requirements. EnerCera combines a thin and lightweight design with high output and excellent environmental resistance, enabling stable operation in outdoor environments. By enabling wireless lighting control, the system is expected to enhance the visibility of tsunami evacuation facilities at night and help prevent evacuation delays. The Tsunami Balloon Project is an initiative led by a technical team from Tohoku University, aiming to develop a system that automatically releases balloons into the air upon receiving disaster information, such as tsunami warnings and emergency earthquake alerts, issued via the Quasi-Zenith Satellite System "Michibiki". In the demonstration experiment, a series of operational tests were conducted: upon receiving a tsunami warning (test signal), gas was rapidly injected into the balloon, inflating it to a diameter of approximately 2 meters and raising it to a height of about 40 meters within approximately 2 to 3 minutes. The balloon is marked with a person pictogram, allowing people to identify the evacuation facility simply by looking up at the sky. To improve nighttime visibility, EnerCera was integrated as the light source. Source: https://www.mynewsdesk.com/ ["Sacrifice Zone" or a Clean Energy Future? EU Court Considers Portuguese Lithium Mine Project] The risks in this case escalated further after EU officials refused in November to revoke the "strategic" status of the Barroso mine. A long-standing controversy over lithium mining in northern Portugal has reached the European Union's highest court. Environmental and community organizations have filed a lawsuit with the European Court of Justice against the European Commission's decision to grant the Barroso lithium project "strategic" status. The residents' association "United Defense Association of the Barroso Valley" and the environmental law organization ClientEarth raised objections on Thursday, February 5, arguing that the Commission failed to reassess the project after new evidence emerged regarding environmental, social, and safety risks. The core dispute in this case revolves around the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act of 2024. Projects designated as "strategic" gain fast-track access to permitting processes, financing channels, and the supply of raw materials for green products such as EVs and batteries. Source: https://www.euronews.com/ [How Argentina's Lithium and Uranium Boom Could Undermine Its Energy Sovereignty] Argentina possesses abundant critical natural resources, the demand for which is increasingly growing as the global energy transition continues to accelerate. However, although Argentina's potential geopolitical advantages have opened new avenues for economic growth, as world superpowers fiercely compete for the country's lithium and uranium resources, this may also entail significant trade-offs in energy sovereignty. The Argentine economy has finally seen a rebound after decades of painful recession. This shift is largely attributed to the radical austerity policies implemented by the right-wing President Javier Milei, elected in 2023. While Milei's aggressive financial reforms have had some positive effects on the economy, his approach has been highly controversial both domestically and internationally. Part of Milei's strategy involves forming a close alliance with the Trump administration. As part of this shift, he has shown a new willingness to cooperate with the US and other international partners in new nuclear energy plans. Milei declared his country an "unconditional ally of the US," with Argentina becoming the first partner country to sign the Trump administration's "Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technologies" initiative. Source: https://oilprice.com/

[Chinese New Year Holiday Approaches, Zinc Concentrate Market Sluggish] On a weekly basis, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat MoM at 1,500 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $0.53/dmt MoM to $24.35/dmt.

SMM February 13: Lead prices fluctuated rangebound during the week, with low quotation activity in the spot market. Most smelters halted shipments for the holiday, while a few enterprises, facing high finished product pressure, were willing to sell off goods, but encountered limited purchase interest. The mainstream ex-factory prices for secondary refined lead spot orders, including tax, were at discounts ranging from 100 to 0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with a few spot cargoes delivered to downstream enterprises at parity. Downstream battery producers resumed production slightly earlier than secondary lead smelters after the holiday, but digesting pre-holiday lead ingot inventory was expected to take 4 to 7 days. SMM anticipated that secondary lead enterprises would show high shipment activity at that time, while downstream purchase willingness would remain low. Losses at secondary lead smelters persisted, and the number of enterprises reducing or halting production increased during the Chinese New Year holiday. Although waste lead-acid battery prices declined slightly, sluggish trading activity in the lead industry chain weighed on lead price trends. As of February 13, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -267 yuan/mt, while for small and medium-scale enterprises it was -474 yuan/mt (by-product revenues in the model exclude tin and antimony). After the holiday, secondary lead smelters concentrated on production resumptions, leading to a surge in demand for waste lead-acid batteries; raw material costs were expected to rise significantly. If purchase willingness among downstream battery producers recovers poorly, lead price increases will face pressure, and SMM expects the loss-making trend for secondary lead to persist. 》Order to View SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices