Jastrzebska Spolka Weglowa (JSW SA), the European Union’s largest coking coal producer, has reduced its production forecast for 2026 to approximately 13.3 million tonnes, down from a prior estimate of 13.5 million tonnes. The revision stems from a methane and rock outburst incident at the KWK Pniowek mine, which led to a suspension of activities and a delay in key longwall operations from May to November 2026. This reduction in local European supply places additional pressure on regional steelmakers to source more expensive metallurgical coal from Australia and North America.

Australia and the European Union officially signed a new trade agreement on March 24, 2026, focused on securing supply chains for critical minerals and high-grade iron ore. This deal follows eight years of negotiations and is intended to diversify the EU's raw material sourcing away from China. The agreement provides European steelmakers with preferential access to Australian magnetite and high-purity hematite, while fostering joint investment in processing facilities that meet strict environmental and social governance standards required for the upcoming EU "green steel" mandates.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Dovish Remarks by the US Fed Drove Zinc Prices Higher] Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the 20-day daily average above acting as resistance. Overnight, dovish remarks by the US Fed boosted market sentiment, while LME Cash-3M shifted to a backwardation structure......

India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.

Indonesia's new nickel tariffs and Europe's CBAM have sharply raised overseas stainless steel costs, driving Asian mills to hike prices. Downstream demand remains mixed: Japan and South Korea are resilient, while the Taiwan, China region faces pressure. Wary of rapid price spikes, buyers are limiting purchases to rigid demand. The market will remain cautious until tariff details and actual demand are validated.

The European Union has officially approved a €390 million bridge loan to support the operational turnaround and environmental compliance of Italy's Acciaierie d'Italia (ADI), formerly known as Ilva. The massive Taranto steelworks is currently running at a critically low annual production capacity of 1.5 to 1.8 million metric tons, relying solely on Blast Furnace No. 4 while Blast Furnaces No. 1 and No. 2 remain idled for extraordinary maintenance. The newly secured state-backed funding is aimed at restarting these idled furnaces, restoring essential coke oven gas treatments, and stabilizing the employment of thousands of workers currently under an extended extraordinary layoff scheme

The General Court of the European Union has annulled a European Commission regulation that extended a 17.3% anti-dumping duty on Indonesian hot-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils to imports consigned from Turkey. The ruling followed a legal challenge by Turkish steel producer Çolakoğlu Metalurji. The Court determined that the Commission made an error of law by incorrectly classifying the Turkish producer's processing activities as an "assembly operation" under EU circumvention criteria, thereby invalidating the extended duties for the applicant company.

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

According to market reports, the European Union continues to contest the 2025 extension of US Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives, viewing them as a violation of existing trade agreements. While the EU seeks a rollback—emboldened by a recent US Supreme Court ruling that struck down separate "emergency" IEEPA tariffs—the US maintains that investigations into these derivatives were initiated before any trade deal was finalized. Currently, most EU steel exports face a 15% tariff entering the US, while nearly 40% of machinery imports from the EU are hit by a 50% tariff on their metal content. The dispute has notably stalled the ratification of the 2025 EU-US trade deal in the European Parliament.

【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】Southeast Asia's Secondary Aluminum Industry Trapped in "Margin Squeeze": Raw Material Surge Forces ADC12 Plant Cuts, Industry May Enter "Lunar New Year Mode" Early February 2026 marked a period of unprecedented regulatory volatility for the global secondary aluminum and scrap markets. Driven by a confluence of tariff upheavals, aggressive decarbonization mandates, and stringent environmental crackdowns, the traditional flow of aluminum scrap is being fundamentally redrawn. As the United States implements sweeping new import surcharges, the European Union weighs restrictive export measures, and Southeast Asian hubs like Malaysia tighten their borders against contaminated materials, market participants are facing mounting compliance costs and disrupted arbitrage windows. This review examines the key policy shifts that defined the ex-China aluminum recycling sector this month and their immediate implications for global trade flows. The United States: How the 10% Surcharge Disrupts Secondary Aluminum Following the United States Supreme Court’s ruling, which invalidated Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026, many trade goods found themselves navigating a complicated and chaotic new regulatory landscape. Within hours of the ruling, President Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, levying a 10% blanket global import surcharge that went into effect on February 24, replacing the former country-based tariffs. There have also been threats made by President Trump to raise this surcharge to the statutory maximum of 15%, which could further disrupt global trade and U.S. imports. Even though most primary aluminum products will not see a huge change due to already being burdened by the 50% Section 232 tariffs, the secondary aluminum market, which formerly enjoyed a 0% tariff under Section 232, might now be caught in the newest 10% blanket import surcharge. The US Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, published in February 2026, estimated an increase in imported scrap into the US in 2025, reaching roughly 890,000 metric tons, which is approximately a 27% increase compared to 2024. Even though scrap imports only make up roughly 20% of the US’s total scrap consumption, a blanket import surcharge will likely affect a significant portion of total scrap imports for the active period of the Section 122 policy. This is especially true as the policy remains highly volatile and faces the risk of being increased or challenged in the near future. Europe: The "Scrap Leakage" Debate and Impending Export Controls The EU aluminum recycling sector is also on edge following the closure of the EU’s public consultation in late January. Currently, trade measures are widely expected to be unveiled and launched during Spring 2026, aimed at curbing what the EU terms "aluminum scrap leakage." European Aluminum, as one of the biggest supporters of trade measures to control scrap leakage, cites outflows exceeding 1.3 million tons annually that could instead be utilized domestically to meet decarbonization and net-zero targets. In February, the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) released statements opposing these trade measures, stating that "the imposition of export restrictions or trade barriers is fundamentally unnecessary and risks producing significant unintended consequences for the entire value chain." BIR also explained how its own monitoring fails to identify scrap leakage issues, noting that the EU currently has insufficient domestic smelting capacity to absorb the extra scrap that is being exported out of Europe. In the same statement, BIR warned of a probable reduction in domestic aluminum scrap prices and a decline in the overall quality of waste management systems. Similarly, in 2025, the European Recycling Industries' Confederation (EuRIC) published stark warnings against the possible restriction of aluminum scrap exports. In a scenario where all grades of aluminum scrap are restricted from being exported, or if exports are hit with a significant surcharge, the Asian market, especially China, India, and Southeast Asia, all of which are large importers of EU scrap would be heavily impacted. Supply would see significant decreases, and prices outside Europe might climb to new highs as markets adjust to fill the gap, while secondary prices within the EU could drop to new lows due to localized oversupply. Malaysia: The E-Waste Crackdown and Stringent SIRIM Enforcement Following the success of "Ops Metal" in 2025, Malaysia has seen a massive volume of illegal scrap imports seized, amounting to a total value of RM 7 billion. In response to the influx of illegal scrap imports frequently mixed with electronic waste, the Malaysian government implemented an absolute e-waste import ban effective February 4, 2026, in order to curb these environmental violations. While aluminum scrap is still legally allowed to be imported into Malaysia, albeit under strict SIRIM purity requirements, the absolute e-waste ban will inevitably affect certain secondary grades. Notably, Zorba imports will likely see significant increases in transit and processing times, as customs officials are now far more likely to detain such cargoes for exhaustive inspections due to the high probability of e-waste contamination. In the broader picture, the volume of aluminum scrap legally entering Malaysia will likely decrease. Coupled with escalating processing delays at customs, this friction increases the probability that businesses will actively divert their aluminum scrap trade elsewhere in Southeast Asia, such as to Thailand. Conclusion Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, the secondary aluminum market will likely remain in a state of flux as these regional policies take full effect. The era of frictionless global scrap trade is rapidly giving way to a localized, highly regulated environment. For remelters and traders, navigating this landscape will require extreme supply chain agility and a hyper-focus on material compliance. As European supply risks being politically landlocked, U.S. raw material imports become suddenly more expensive, and Southeast Asian quality barriers rise, we expect to see continued volatility in regional premiums and a widening decoupling of traditional scrap-to-LME pricing mechanisms in certain regions. Adapting to this fragmented reality will be the defining challenge for the industry in the months to come.