The settlement mechanism for LFP is evolving, but the “lithium + phosphoric acid” dual linkage covers only a portion of costs and carries structural flaws such as process mismatch and lagging price references. SMM believes the industry should move directly to the ultimate “lithium carbonate + iron phosphate” solution. The SMM iron phosphate price is a settlement benchmark recognized by both upstream and downstream players.

Published: Jun 19, 2026 - 5:54 AM (Kitco News) – Gold prices saw another volatile week, as early safe-haven demand from Middle East uncertainty gave way to heavy selling after the Federal Reserve held rates steady but signaled that a 2026 rate hike remained on the table. Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $4,210.52 per ounce on Sunday evening, and quickly pushed higher as traders continued to price in geopolitical risk around the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The rally continued through Monday’s and Tuesday’s trading sessions, with gold holding above $4,300 as markets looked ahead to the Fed decision and monitored signs of progress toward a regional de-escalation. Gold made its strongest move on Wednesday, when spot prices set their weekly high at $4,381.83 per ounce just minutes before the rate announcement, but the advance quickly reversed after the Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% while signaling that another rate hike before year-end was possible. The hawkish shift lifted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, undercutting gold despite lingering concerns about inflation and the Middle East. The yellow metal’s selloff accelerated Thursday after the U.S. and Iran signed a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil prices and reducing some of gold’s safe-haven appeal. Spot gold broke back below $4,250 and ultimately set its weekly low at $4,201.14 per ounce on Thursday afternoon as U.S. markets closed ahead of Friday’s Juneteenth holiday. The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed the bears back in control on Wall Street after the Fed’s hawkish lean, while Main Street sentiment bounced back into bullish territory despite gold’s late-week slide. “Unchanged (but volatile),” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “The tone of the Federal Reserve meeting and new chairman Kevin Warsh’s comments came as a shock to the market, which will have to absorb the apparent shift in coming days and weeks. Warsh himself is unlikely to make attempts to clarify his comments–unlike under the last Fed Chairman–so we will have to wait for the next fed meeting to see where the Fed goes next. In the meantime, a peace in Iran, albeit fragile, as well as ongoing purchases from central banks and Tether, supports the price on the downside.” Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, sees gold prices sliding further next week. “Why? That’s how the coin toss went this morning,” he said. “The bottom line is nothing about the market has changed. Central banks continue to buy while investors continue to sell. Inflation is still a concern, with the US FOMC hinting at a rate hike before the end of 2026. While this could support the US dollar, theoretically weakening dollar-backed commodities like gold, it doesn’t change the fact central banks would rather own gold long-term than the dollar.” “Up,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “I still believe the pullback was completely overdone. A lot of where things go now rest on the peace deal to be signed in Switzerland and the details that get ironed out over the next 60 days. If we keep moving toward a more lasting peace, gold should benefit… despite what Chairman Warsh does at the Fed.” “I’m betting on peace, and I’m betting on gold.” Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, told Kitco News that Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as head of the Fed went well, but it’s clear the FOMC is divided on the rate path. “What really came out was that it looks like there's a lot of members that are looking for rate hikes,” he said. “I think that's the story.” As far as the reaction from precious metals, Grady said while the price action may look dramatic, there’s nothing behind it right now. “I always go back to the volume,” Grady said. “You see gold is down $115; it was down $125... the [front-month futures] volume didn't even break 100,000 for the day. Just anemic, no one's trading. We see silver almost down $5, but the total silver volume from last night at 6 pm is 31,000 contracts.” “They're just not trading it,” he added. “Volumes are anemic, the open interest is extremely low. There's not a lot of interest in the market right now.” Grady said that gold found solid support at the $4,000 per ounce level, and we could be headed back there in short order. “You can see the psychological level of $4,000 is going to be good support for gold,” he said. “But if we just keep sitting around these levels and no one comes in to start buying it, I think that you're going to see a retest of those lows.” Grady said nothing about new Fed chair Warsh appears to be rubbing markets the wrong way, and the bearish moves he sees are a response to others on the FOMC. “I think the market's reacting to the other Fed governors who are looking for rate hikes,” he said. “That's what the gold market's reacting to, anyway. The equities don't seem to be reacting to any of that. But I think what Warsh is holding onto, and why he keeps stressing that he wants to focus on the data that's coming out, is because if you look at the latest inflation numbers, everything's coming from energy. As I'm talking, the energy market's ticking down, and now we're seeing $75 crude oil.” “If we can get gas prices down around $3, or even under $3, I think the whole picture changes, because the inflation data will change.” Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, Grady said he wouldn’t want to be on either side of any gold trades, but he expects gold prices to test the recent lows when traders return next week. “I'd be flat, and I plan on being flat,” he said. “I feel like we haven't seen the lows in gold. I think we're going to see a retest of those lows in gold, possibly even next week. I'm looking at the screen right now, it's a fifty-cent bid-ask spread, one lot up, no volume on that screen. People are not trading. If people saw this as a value area, they'd be in there buying. And I just don't think there's a lot of people in there buying.” “I think we have to find that level, so I'm looking for a retest of those lows.” This week, 10 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street’s majority opinion turning bearish as gold gave up its gains following the reemergence of rate hikes on the horizon. Only one expert, or 10%, expected to see gold prices gain ground during the week ahead, while seven others – fully 70% of the total – predicted a price decline. The remaining two analysts, representing 20%, saw the yellow metal trending sideways next week. Meanwhile, 46 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors returning to their bullish baseline despite gold’s post-Fed weakness. 25 retail traders, or 54%, looked for gold prices to rise next week, while another 16, or 35%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining five investors, representing 11% of the total, expect to see consolidation during the coming week. Next week’s economic data will feature the final reading of Q1 GDP and PCE inflation, along with an early look at manufacturing and services purchasing for June The data calendar starts on Tuesday morning with the release of S&P Global Flash PMI for June. Then on Wednesday, markets will be watching New Home Sales for May. Thursday will see the release of final US Q1 GDP and PCE, along with weekly jobless claims, and May durable goods orders. The week wraps up on Friday morning with the final print of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June. Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS PAMP, said the new Fed chair didn’t do gold any favors. “This meeting makes the Gold rally from ~$4K/oz look increasingly like a tactical dead-cat bounce, not a structural reversal,” she warned. “Until the task force outputs land (~6wks) and there's clarity on what they actually decide, the statement & presser have to be read as more hawkish than the market priced going in → rallies to be sold, not chased.” Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, expects gold prices to decline next week. “It appears the rally triggered by the signing of the US-Iran memorandum has ended amid the Fed’s hawkish stance, sparking a wave of US dollar buying,” he said. “From a technical analysis perspective, the long-standing key support level, the 200-day moving average, has shifted to resistance. However, for this view to be confirmed, gold would need to fall below $4,000, breaking through the key round figure and the area of the previous rebound. That said, the bulls still harbour faint hopes that this level will once again attract buyers.” “Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a retest of $4,000 next week.” Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects to see lower gold prices in the coming days. “LOWER unless we take out lower timeframe formation above mentioned below,” he said. “In a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $4,443.1. This is ON HOLD. The trade below 52554 projected this down $740 (+)—we attained $1,209.2. The trade below 52036 brought in $1,157.4 of pressure. The trade below 51606 brought in $1,114.4 of pressure. These are OFF HOLD.” “On a lower timeframe basis: We held exhaustion with a 49177 high and rolled over $871.5,” Moor said. “The break below 48185 projected this down $185 (+)—we attained $772.3. The trade below 47923 projected this down $205 (+)—we attained $746.1. The break below 47420 brought in $695.8 of pressure. On 5/15 we left a medium bearish reversal—we have come off $507.0 from 45532. These are OFF HOLD. We held medium timeframe exhaustion with a 40462 low and rallied $345.3—if we continue to rally into a bullish correction, the minimum target is 50547. Friday we left the minor bullish reversal—we have rallied $167.9 from the 42326 open. The break above 42236 (-20.6 per/hour) projects this up $65 min, $155 (+) max—we attained $158.9. The break above 42769 (-14 tics per/hour) has brought in $114.6 of strength. These are ON HOLD. We held exhaustion with a 44036 high and rolled over $166.2 into a bearish correction/trend against the move up from 40462, with possible exhaustion at 42249-069 and 41840-1677, but these are premature to hold. A maintained gap lower will leave a minor bearish reversal.” At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $4,208.99 per ounce for a flat performance on the week and a loss of 1.14% on the day. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-18/wall-street-bears-back-control-after-feds-hawkish-outlook-main-street-leans

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Move Sideways with a Firm Tone, Weak Spot Demand Prompts Traders to Offer Discounts According to SMM on June 22, SS futures showed a pattern of moving sideways with a firm tone. SHFE nickel opened low and moved higher, lifting SS in tandem, though market sentiment remained cautious and the overall fluctuation range narrowed. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 15,125 yuan/mt. In the spot market, despite the relative firmness in SS futures, spot cargo stayed largely stable on the cautious mood. With the onset of the seasonal consumption off-season, demand was weak, inquiries and transactions were sluggish, and some traders actively sold to reduce inventory, leading to certain discounts. SS futures, the most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 15,085 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 135-535 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi saw its average price remain flat; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price in Wuxi was flat and in Foshan was flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil price in Wuxi was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers rose 100 yuan/mt in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were steady. This week, stainless steel spot and futures logged wild swings, as overseas macro expectations repeatedly disturbed futures, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The overall pattern was one of macro forces dictating movement, trading activity fluctuating with sentiment, supply constraints propping up spot prices, stable inventory levels, and mild profit recovery. Early in the week, macro tailwinds pro...

SMM June 22: Metals markets: On Friday night, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18, we see: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. On Friday night, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. On Friday night in the overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. On Friday night in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 1.55%; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 4.51%. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold posted a weekly gain, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver posted a weekly gain, up 5.25% for the week. As it no longer expects the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a note: "We revised down our December gold price target to $4,900/oz (previous target $5,400), implying gold is still expected to rise in H2, though by less than previously expected. Our view on gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downgrade was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back the first US rate cut to June and December next year, from prior expectations of December 2026 and March 2027, and also by a lower forecast for gold ETF inflows. Additionally, they added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh. (Jinshi) As of 7:47 a.m. June 20, closing prices from Friday night: Macro front China side: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidance on the development and application of safe AI in the banking and insurance sectors. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support cities in improving the reserve pools of IPO-ready enterprises and M&A and restructuring projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages and other institutions to thoroughly deliver full-cycle counseling services for pre-IPO enterprises, optimize approval processes for land use rights, property, stock transfers involved in M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Weifang: Expand the implementation of 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on expanding the implementation of Weifang's 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities. According to the province-wide unified categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuums (including floor scrubbers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting discounts at all stages. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery place of the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang. (Published by Weifang) [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launch of Market Orders and Order Quantities for Related Trading Instructions] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the evening of July 3, 2026). Market orders are applicable to all listed futures and options products. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots for futures products and 100 lots for options products. For market orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 60 lots for futures products and 30 lots for options products. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots. Dollar aspects: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, hitting a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index rose for the week, up 0.97% for the week. Market pricing showed that bets on Fed rate hikes increased, with a 25-basis-point rate hike in September fully priced in. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were buying large amounts of options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sends a hawkish signal this week and reinforces US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds started buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which would increase in value if the dollar appreciates. That demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the new Fed Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation remarks. Bank of America’s head of Americas FX options, Tobias Jungmann, said: “We’re seeing massive dollar call buying, concentrated mainly in G-10 currencies. Given how low implied volatility is currently, building long dollar positions via options looks very attractive.” James Swindell, senior FX options trader at Barclays in London, said: “We’re seeing broad-based, notable demand for dollar calls, especially in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 39.6%. By the September meeting, the probability of unchanged rates is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. The ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years, responding to the surge in energy prices since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. However, oil and natural gas prices subsequently tumbled after Iran and the US announced a peace deal. Lane said the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate-hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. “We think food prices will rise, and prices of goods and services will rise too. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified,” he said. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see rising services inflation, we could consider another 25bp rate hike as insurance. If the data are ambiguous, I see no need to rush into action. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rates on hold in a 7-2 vote, says it will watch Middle East situation closely] The BoE kept the interest rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike, worried about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—April’s sole dissenter—in voting to lift rates to 4% immediately, arguing that the price outlook remains uncertain despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China’s one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada’s May CPI month-on-month rate, the eurozone’s June flash consumer confidence index, France’s June flash manufacturing PMI, Germany’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash services PMI, the UK’s June CBI industrial orders balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6, the US June S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, the US June S&P Global flash services PMI, the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia’s May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany’s June IFO business climate index, Switzerland’s June ZEW investor sentiment index, the US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the US May personal spending month-on-month rate, the final Q1 US real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, the US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, the US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, and the US June one-year inflation expectations final rate. Additionally, this week, attention should also be paid to: European Central Bank President Lagarde Christine speaks at the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Tiff delivers remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releases the results of its annual bank stress test; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature today; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams John speaks; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Austan speaks; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Neel speaks. Crude Oil: Both crude oil futures rose in overnight trading last Friday: WTI rose 0.91%, Brent rose 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for two consecutive weeks, down 9.83% for the week; Brent fell for two straight weeks, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, then struggled to rebound and turned lower several times during the session, hitting a low for the day after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As news emerged that both sides continued to attack each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent struggled around the $80 level throughout the day. (Wall Street View) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated: Negotiations on a permanent deal with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts blockades, the US grants waivers for Iranian oil, and Iran's frozen assets are released. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping out a large volume of oil that was previously unable to be exported due to the US blockade, which could be welcome news for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers sailed from Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman this week, carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil. Previously, the US military had blocked these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at limiting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data showed that for the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, due to the contract rollover, the floor trading of NYMEX New York crude oil July futures will close at 2:30 on June 23, and electronic trading will close at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.

On the last day before the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream processing enterprises in central China showed strong buying sentiment. Overall market transactions were relatively active, but actual transaction prices were relatively weak. Traders holding goods tended to sell in large quantities before the festival to mitigate the risk of price changes during the holiday period. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the Central China market centered around a discount of 70-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract.

On June 9, a fire broke out at Chemical Grade Plant 3, or CGP3, at the Greenbushes lithium operation. The fire was quickly extinguished, no injuries were reported, and CGP1 and CGP2 continued to operate as normal. The following day, IGO confirmed that its FY2026 spodumene concentrate production guidance of 1.375–1.425 million tonnes remained unchanged. Chemical Grade Plant 4, or CGP4, is scheduled to commence construction in 2027. Viewed in isolation, this was a well-contained operational incident. However, the location of the fire deserves closer attention. CGP3 is not part of Greenbushes’ existing production base. It represents incremental supply currently ramping up at the far-left end of the global lithium cost curve. The project involved approximately A$880 million of investment and is designed to add around 500,000 tonnes per year of spodumene concentrate capacity. First ore was fed into the plant in December 2025, and the facility had originally been expected to reach nameplate capacity around mid-2026. The damage assessment is still under way. Neither the repair cost nor the recovery timeline has been quantified. The fact that production guidance remains unchanged should therefore be understood as an initial assessment rather than a definitive conclusion. The key question is not whether IGO has immediately revised its annual guidance. It is whether the CGP3 ramp-up schedule will be delayed. Should the market be concerned when an incremental production line at the world’s lowest-cost lithium mine experiences an operational disruption? To answer this question, it is useful to examine the role of Australian lithium mines in the broader lithium pricing mechanism. Note on the CGP3 ramp-up timeline: At IGO’s FY2026 second-quarter results briefing in late January 2026, management stated that CGP3 had received first ore in December 2025 and would require approximately five months to ramp up to nameplate capacity. Some English-language transcripts recorded management as referring to completion “by the end of the calendar year.” However, based on the timing of first ore feed, a five-month ramp-up period would imply completion around mid-2026, before the end of Australia’s FY2026 financial year. This is also consistent with the company’s previous guidance. The transcript may therefore have intended to say “by the end of the financial year.” This article adopts the mid-2026 ramp-up assumption. The timing is relevant because the June 9 fire occurred only weeks before the originally expected completion of the ramp-up. The actual impact should become clearer in IGO’s fourth-quarter report, which is expected in late July. Greenbushes: A Reference Point at the Bottom of the Cost Curve Greenbushes’ most important advantage begins with ore grade. It is one of the world’s largest and highest-grade hard-rock lithium mines currently in production. Its ore grade is approximately twice the industry average. For a spodumene operation, grade directly affects processing efficiency. To produce one tonne of SC6 concentrate, Greenbushes needs to process materially less ore than a typical mine. This provides a structural advantage across mining, beneficiation, energy consumption and tailings management. Greenbushes also benefits from scale. The operation currently has several processing facilities, with combined nominal ore-processing capacity of around 6.5 million tonnes per year and spodumene concentrate capacity of up to approximately 1.5 million tonnes per year. Once CGP3 completes its ramp-up, the mine will add a further 500,000 tonnes per year of concentrate capacity. With the mine life extended to 2045, Greenbushes combines low costs with long-term supply capacity. This explains the mine’s resilience during the lithium price downturn. During 2024 and 2025, lithium prices declined sharply. A number of higher-cost Australian mines and Chinese lepidolite projects faced production cuts or temporary shutdowns. Greenbushes, however, continued to maintain relatively strong profitability and moved ahead with the CGP3 expansion. Greenbushes does not represent the industry’s average cost. It represents the most competitive end of the global hard-rock lithium cost curve. For that reason, Greenbushes is better understood as a reference point for the bottom of the cycle. As lithium prices fall, higher-cost supply exits first, while low-cost assets remain in operation. The closer prices move toward the cost range of Greenbushes, the fewer marginal producers remain capable of operating normally, and the more advanced the supply-side clearing process becomes. This does not mean that lithium prices can never fall below the cost level of Greenbushes. In the short term, inventory pressure, liquidity conditions and market sentiment can push prices below the cost levels implied by the marginal supply curve. Greenbushes is not an absolute price floor. Its significance is that it provides a structural reference point for assessing how far supply-side clearing has progressed. Greenbushes: The Largest Producer, but with Limited Freely Traded Supply Although Greenbushes produces large volumes of spodumene concentrate, relatively little of that material enters the open spot market directly. The mine is operated by Talison Lithium. Talison is owned by Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia, or TLEA, and Albemarle. TLEA is in turn jointly owned by Tianqi Lithium and IGO. Greenbushes concentrate is primarily distributed through shareholder offtake arrangements and supplied into the downstream conversion systems of Tianqi, Albemarle and their respective partners. Under normal conditions, the material is not sold directly into the open market. Greenbushes therefore provides a useful example of why lithium supply should be analysed through several different layers: Resources → Design capacity → Actual production → Saleable volume → Freely traded spot volume Greenbushes ranks among the world’s largest producers by actual output. However, because most of its concentrate is locked into shareholder offtake arrangements, the amount available for open-market trading remains relatively limited. This means Greenbushes affects lithium pricing mainly through indirect channels. First, it determines the size of the lowest-cost portion of global lithium supply and therefore plays an important role in shaping the lithium chemical cost curve. Second, its operating costs, offtake pricing mechanism and expansion schedule provide reference points for long-term contract negotiations and price assessments in the spodumene market. By contrast, short-term spot prices are often more directly influenced by marginal resources that are not fully locked into shareholder arrangements and must actively seek buyers in the market. These include certain Australian mines, African lithium resources and trader-held cargoes. This explains an apparent paradox. An additional 500,000 tonnes of Greenbushes concentrate capacity can materially change the medium-term supply-demand balance, yet its immediate impact on the spot market may be limited. Meanwhile, the shutdown or restart of a marginal mine producing only 100,000–200,000 tonnes per year can quickly influence spot quotations and market sentiment if its output is sold on a market basis. Short-term pricing is not determined solely by total production. It is also shaped by the volume of material that is freely available for negotiation and immediate transaction. The same logic applies to lithium carbonate. Price elasticity depends not only on total inventory but also on how much inventory is genuinely available for circulation. The largest producer does not necessarily exert the most direct influence over the spot market. Short-term marginal pricing is usually driven by the resources that are tradeable, negotiable and available for immediate delivery. However, shareholder offtake does not mean that Greenbushes material is completely isolated from the market. If lithium conversion plants within the Tianqi or Albemarle systems reduce operating rates, or if downstream conversion assets experience operational issues, part of the concentrate originally intended for internal consumption may re-enter the market indirectly through tolling, resale or inventory adjustments. These volumes are rarely captured in public statistics, but they can affect the actual liquidity of the spodumene market. Tracking this material requires a broader set of indicators, including shareholder conversion-plant operating rates, concentrate inventories, tolling arrangements and import flows. This type of “shadow spot supply” is harder to observe than nominal mine production, yet it can become relevant at specific points in the cycle. SC6 and Lithium Chemicals: The Direction of Price Transmission Reversed Within a Year The relationship between Australian spodumene concentrate prices and Chinese lithium chemical prices has completed a full cycle over the past year. During the first half of 2025, spodumene prices followed lithium chemical prices downward. Australian miners reduced costs materially in the first quarter but largely avoided production cuts. Mining companies remained willing to ship material, and the price of SC6 concentrate fell to around US$620 per tonne. Falling concentrate prices then placed additional pressure on lithium chemical prices, reinforcing the downward cycle. At the time, the key market question was straightforward: When would the mining sector finally reduce supply? The direction of transmission reversed in the end of third quarter. The announcement that 27 mining licences in Yichun could be cancelled, together with the suspension of the Jianxiawo mine, tightened expectations around domestic Chinese lithium supply. Lithium chemical prices moved first. SC6 prices then followed, with greater elasticity. By December, the monthly average price had recovered to around US$1,300 per tonne. Formula-based pricing mechanisms linked to lithium chemical prices allowed mining companies to capture a large share of the upside, while Chinese converters saw their processing margins squeezed. At the same time, the impairment and expansion adjustments at the Kwinana lithium hydroxide project highlighted the challenges facing Australian downstream conversion. The project has faced difficulties in cost control, production ramp-up and operational stability. TLEA’s Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery was fully impaired in mid-2025, the second train was suspended, and IGO made clear that it would prioritize mining. These developments reinforce Australia’s role as a supplier of spodumene concentrate rather than a major lithium chemical conversion hub. As a result, the relationship between SC6 prices and Chinese lithium chemical prices is likely to remain strong. However, the speed and magnitude of transmission will continue to depend on inventories, contract formulas, shipping cycles and converter operating rates. One of the most useful indicators is the implied conversion margin between SC6 concentrate and lithium chemical spot prices. When the implied conversion margin turns negative, Chinese converters purchasing third-party concentrate are effectively losing cash on incremental production. The market then needs to rebalance through at least one of three channels: Spodumene concentrate prices decline; Lithium chemical prices rise; Converters reduce operating rates. This indicator provides a useful way to judge whether bargaining power currently sits with the mining segment or the conversion segment. Australian Mine Restarts: Lithium Prices Develop an Upper Constraint The key theme for Australian lithium mines during 2024 and 2025 was supply-side clearing. In 2026, the theme has shifted toward reactivation. As lithium prices recovered during the first half of the year and futures briefly exceeded RMB 200,000 per tonne, a series of restart decisions emerged across May and June. Project Action Timing Key Point Bald Hill, Mineral Resources Restart after approximately 18 months of suspension Restart announced in May; first concentrate expected in July Restart cost of around A$20 million Ngungaju, PLS Processing plant restart Planned for July Approximately 200,000 tonnes per year of restored output Finniss, Core Lithium Final investment decision approved; financing secured Targeting first ore in the third quarter Financing package of approximately US$205 million Kathleen Valley, Liontown Expansion under assessment Ongoing Further details pending Mt Cattlin, Rio Tinto Remains suspended Suspended since March 2025 Restart conditions remain unclear Taken together, these cases show that the true threshold for mine restart is more complex than a simple comparison between lithium prices and cash costs. Bald Hill moved from restart announcement to expected first concentrate production in around two months. The mine had remained in a production-ready care-and-maintenance state, and Mineral Resources has its own mining-services platform, allowing it to mobilize mining, crushing and haulage internally without relying heavily on external contractors. This type of asset represents the fastest-reacting segment of supply when prices recover. Finniss is a different case. The project first monetized inventories through Glencore to improve liquidity, then assembled a financing package involving convertible debt, additional borrowings and equity issuance before reaching a final investment decision. For miners with weaker balance sheets, a restart is not simply an operational decision. It is a financing event. A low-price cycle does not eliminate the resource base. It eliminates the ability to finance production. The market impact of the restart wave is already visible. Lithium carbonate futures reached a two-year high of RMB 200,500 per tonne on May 13 before retreating to around RMB 160,000–170,000 per tonne in June. One reason for the pullback is that the market has begun to price in the return of idle supply. The mechanism is straightforward: Prices rise → Idle capacity restarts → Expected supply increases → Prices come under pressure The list of suspended Australian mines, once ranked by restart economics and response time, effectively becomes an upside supply curve for lithium prices. The CGP3 fire and the restart wave represent two sides of the same market. At the low-cost end of the curve, incremental Greenbushes supply has experienced an operational disruption, creating a bullish signal. At the higher-cost end, idle assets are returning to production, creating a bearish signal. From a resource perspective, lithium prices in 2026 are searching for equilibrium between these two forces. Lithium Prices in 2026 May Become More Volatile, but One-Way Trends Could Be Shorter Once prices rise, the factor that ultimately limits the upside is the speed at which idle capacity returns to the market. Bald Hill, Finniss and Ngungaju represent a broader pool of suspended or standby assets that can respond when lithium prices move sufficiently above their cash-cost thresholds and remain there for long enough. However, restart supply is not instantaneous. From the moment a restart is announced, companies need to remobilize personnel, inspect equipment, resume mining and processing, build concentrate inventories and arrange shipments. Depending on the asset, concentrate may enter the market within two months or only after several quarters. This delay creates a window during which supply disruptions can push prices higher. The suspension of the Jianxiawo mine and the CGP3 fire at Greenbushes matter not because global lithium resources have suddenly become scarce, but because short-term freely available supply has tightened while idle capacity has not yet fully returned. Compared with the previous cycle, this risk-premium window appears to be shortening. An increasing number of mines are being placed on care and maintenance rather than permanently closed. Mining-services companies, traders and downstream customers are also becoming more involved in restart financing and offtake arrangements. Once prices move back above the relevant breakeven levels, some idle assets can return more quickly. This does not necessarily mean lithium prices will become more stable. Supply disruptions can still trigger rapid price increases. However, the duration and magnitude of one-way rallies are likely to face stronger constraints from restart expectations. Prices may become more volatile in the short term, but sustained unilateral trends could become shorter. Conclusion Australian lithium mines influence lithium prices through several distinct channels. Greenbushes provides a structural reference point at the bottom of the hard-rock lithium cost curve. However, because most of its output is absorbed through shareholder offtake arrangements, it does not directly determine short-term spot pricing. Spot-market tightness is more directly influenced by marginal saleable supply: Australian mines, African resources and trader-held inventories that are available for negotiation and immediate transaction. Once lithium prices rise, the speed at which suspended assets restart becomes the key constraint on the duration of the rally. The framework can therefore be summarized in three lines: Low-cost mines provide a structural reference point for the bottom of the cycle. Freely traded supply determines short-term spot-market tightness. The speed of mine restarts determines how long an upside cycle can last. The CGP3 fire and the restart wave sit at opposite ends of this framework. One represents a disruption to low-cost incremental supply. The other represents the return of higher-cost idle capacity. Lithium prices in 2026 will continue to seek equilibrium between these two forces. Lesley Yang Senior New Energy Analyst, SMM yangle@smm.cn

Ark Mines reported positive results from bulk sample beneficiation and metallurgical testing at its Sandy Mitchell project in Queensland. The testwork produced monazite and titanium products. The rare earth concentrates graded 54.8% total rare earth oxides (TREO), including 23.4% Pr-Nd and 1.49% yttrium. The leucoxene grade reached 73.5%. The company will further investigate the recoverability of zircon, biotite, muscovite, and garnet.

2026-06-10 15:25PM UTC While markets have been focused on the recent sharp decline in gold prices, the broader precious metals sector has also experienced significant selling pressure, with platinum-group metals suffering some of the steepest losses, according to a report from Bank of America. Both platinum and palladium recently fell to their lowest levels of the year amid continued pressure from the global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions. Global economic weakness and Middle East tensions weigh on platinum-group metals Commodity analysts at the bank said the rally in platinum-group metals lost momentum since late January, largely due to gold’s price action and persistent economic headwinds linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to weigh on industrial metals demand. Despite the recent weakness, the bank maintained its positive long-term outlook for the sector, noting that it remains constructive on gold heading into the fourth quarter. A renewed gold rally could attract investors back into platinum-group metals and help support prices. Spot platinum fell to around $1,711 per ounce, down more than 2% during the session, while palladium traded near $1,203 per ounce, up roughly 0.5%. Since the sharp selloff on Friday, platinum has lost more than 9% of its value, while palladium has fallen over 6%. Higher price targets despite weak industrial and jewelry demand Despite current pressures, Bank of America still expects platinum to average around $3,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Palladium is expected to average around $2,200 per ounce during the final three months of the year. Platinum-group metals delivered strong gains during 2025 as global trade tensions and threats of tariffs on precious metals created significant disruptions in physical market liquidity. However, analysts noted that most of those concerns eased after tariff threats failed to translate into broad implementation. According to the report, the absence of tariffs resulted in more than 200,000 ounces of platinum leaving NYMEX warehouses, roughly half of the inflows recorded during the second half of 2025. Palladium, meanwhile, saw outflows in late January before flows reversed after the US Department of Commerce imposed final anti-dumping duties of 133% and countervailing duties of 109% on Russian palladium. Structural shifts in demand The bank also highlighted structural changes in demand for platinum-group metals. Platinum is expected to record a modest supply deficit this year, while palladium is forecast to remain in a slight surplus. Analysts pointed to China’s accelerating transition toward electric vehicles as a major source of market volatility, given the reduced demand for internal combustion engine vehicles that rely heavily on platinum-group metals in catalytic converters. Electric vehicles are expected to account for roughly 40% of China’s light-vehicle production this year, surpassing conventional combustion-engine vehicles for the first time. Traditional vehicles are projected to represent 36% of production, while hybrids account for 24%. Production of internal combustion vehicles in China has already fallen to approximately 14 million units in 2025, down from 21 million in 2020. By contrast, the transition to electric vehicles remains slower in Europe and the United States, particularly after Washington scaled back some of its earlier electrification initiatives. Weak jewelry demand in China Demand for platinum jewelry has also slowed, especially in China, where elevated inventories accumulated during the manufacturing boom of mid-2025 continue to pressure the market. Although some of those inventories have already been recycled, retailers still hold large stockpiles while consumer demand remains weak, raising the risk of a significant contraction in Chinese jewelry manufacturing volumes this year. Energy costs threaten South African production Despite uncertainty surrounding global demand, Bank of America believes supply-side risks could become increasingly important. The bank noted that ongoing Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and inflationary pressures could negatively affect production, particularly in South Africa, one of the world's largest producers of platinum-group metals. South Africa relies heavily on imported oil, has limited domestic production capacity, and faces ongoing refining constraints, leaving its mining sector highly exposed to rising fuel costs. Diesel remains widely used across mining operations, transportation networks, and backup power generation, especially given the country's persistent electricity shortages. Diesel prices have surged since the conflict began, while state utility Eskom raised electricity tariffs by 8.76% beginning in April 2026, significantly increasing mining costs. In this context, Sibanye-Stillwater reported a 13% year-over-year increase in unit operating costs during the first quarter, citing persistent inflationary pressures, including higher labor and energy expenses. In trading on Wednesday, spot palladium rose 1.5% to $1,249 per ounce as of 16:14 GMT. Source： https://www.economies.com/commodities/palladium-news/palladium-attempts-to-recover-losses-as-bank-of-america-maintains-a-bullish-outlook-49044

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt, briefly surged to $1,992/mt (the highest price) in Asian trading before pulling back under pressure; during European trading, although there was a slight recovery, resistance was notable and it fluctuated downward again, touching a low of $1,987.5/mt, eventually closing at $1,988/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.03%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,300 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward under pressure, touching a low of 16,155 yuan/mt before rebounding slightly, moving sideways in the 16,170-16,205 yuan/mt range, and ultimately closing at 16,180 yuan/mt, recording a four-day losing streak, down 160 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.98%. On the macro front: Israel and Iran exchanged fire for the first time since April, and after Trump intervened, both countries announced a temporary halt to attacks. U.S. media: Trump warned Netanyahu that if he wages war with Iran again, he may find himself fighting alone. Iran's UN representative: hopes that the US-Iran negotiations will reach an agreement by the end of June. South Korean regulatory authorities will review speculative won trading. OpenAI disclosed it has secretly filed for an IPO. The CPC Committee of the National Financial Regulatory Administration held an enlarged meeting: to steadily promote the resolution of risks at local small and medium-sized financial institutions and deeply rectify disorderly competition in the financial sector. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, suppliers sold as they saw fit, premiums and discounts quoted yesterday were stable compared to last Friday, and primary lead smelter self-picked-up cargoes were ample, with mainstream production area quotations at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In the secondary lead market, smelters gradually lowered scrap battery purchase prices to ease losses, some smelters resumed shipments, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, at the same level as primary lead prices. However, downstream enterprises had limited just-in-time procurement and mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in sluggish spot order transactions. Inventory: As of June 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,100 mt to 309,250 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 64,700 mt, down 2,100 mt from June 1 and down 2,400 mt from June 4. Today's lead price forecast: Recently, operating rates at secondary lead smelters have rebounded, combined with primary lead enterprises resuming production after maintenance, leading to a continued increase in lead ingot supply. June production is expected to shift from decline to growth. However, the downstream lead-acid battery market is in its traditional off-season, with enterprises mainly making just-in-time procurement and consumption remaining sluggish. Additionally, as the delivery date approaches, invisible inventory is turning into visible inventory, further intensifying inventory buildup pressure. Cost side, amid weakening lead prices, secondary lead enterprises proactively lowered scrap battery purchasing prices, weakening support; however, scrap battery raw materials still had bottom support, and coupled with strong sentiment of holding back from selling at low prices among smelters amid widening losses in secondary lead, this still provided some floor to lead prices, limiting the room for deep price declines.

May 27, 2026 While precious metal prices on the exchanges appear to be stagnating, the physical market is showing unprecedented momentum. The British Royal Mint reports the highest trading activity in its history for the past fiscal year. While short-term interest rate fears are slowing down the paper markets, physical investors are consistently using the consolidation to diversify their portfolios—with almost unprecedented momentum in the silver segment. Online trading at the state-owned mint reached an all-time high. Although the Royal Mint traditionally does not disclose absolute tonnages, the percentage increases quarter-over-quarter illustrate the scale: Gold Boom: Sales of capital gains tax-free gold bars and products rose by 94% compared to the same quarter last year. Silver sensation: Demand for physical silver bars skyrocketed by 1,000% during the same period. Online activity: Transaction volume on royalmint.com climbed by 130% year-over-year. The Silver Phenomenon: Profit-taking Meets Massive Buyer Demand Silver attracted particular attention in the first quarter (January through March). Due to the temporarily high prices, some investors locked in profits, causing the value of silver products sold back to the Royal Mint to rise by a spectacular 3,300%. However, there was no broad market pullback. Buyers continued to clearly dominate the market: For every ounce of silver that customers sold back to the Royal Mint, two ounces were newly purchased (a buy-to-sell ratio of 2:1). This underscores the fundamental and long-term optimistic stance of physical investors toward the silver trend. Structural Change: Record Number of New Customers and Digitalization The record figures are based on a massive expansion of the investor base in the 2025/26 fiscal year: Customer Growth: The number of active precious metal buyers and sellers on the platform rose by 49%. New Customer Ratio: A sensational 60% of all active customers in the past year were first-time buyers. The fourth quarter marked the quarter with the highest number of new customers in the history of the Royal Mint. DigiGold as a Driver: The duty- and VAT-free digital offering “DigiGold” is establishing itself as a key pillar and already accounted for 54% of all transactions. The precious metals market is showing a clear dichotomy: on the one hand, there are short-term macroeconomic headwinds such as interest rates. On the other hand, there is a determined, long-term-oriented group of buyers. Stuart O’Reilly, Private Wealth Consultant at the Royal Mint, sees this as a fundamental and lasting shift in asset allocation: Private investors are increasingly viewing gold and silver not as speculative investments, but as strategic protection against inflation and stock market volatility. In his view, the fact that the influx of new customers continues despite the recent price consolidation demonstrates the long-term investment horizon of this new generation of investors. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-and-silver-royal-mint-reports-unprecedented-demand-for-physical-precious-metals