Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyser market remained at 43.77 GW and the PEM electrolyser market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. There was no offline delivery information this week. Project-related updates: PetroChina Shenzhen New Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd.: It issued a processing tender for its brine hydrogen production electrolyser. Funding for the tender project was self-raised by the enterprise, with a contribution ratio of 100%. It is understood that procurement of necessary raw materials and components included, but was not limited to, integrated electrolyser materials such as electrodes, end plates, bipolar plates, separators, and gaskets. Suppliers were also required to provide essential auxiliary accessories for the electrolyser, including cooling towers, chillers, and potassium hydroxide, in accordance with the purchaser’s requirements. Guangxi University of Science and Technology: It procured a hydrogen-fuel low-speed hybrid autonomous vehicle experimental system from Hefei Zhongke Shengu Technology Development Co., Ltd., with a transaction price of 844,800 yuan. Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences: It issued a procurement notice for a 500 W hydrogen fuel cell testing platform. It is understood that the testing platform will be used for performance, efficiency, and durability testing of 500 W-class hydrogen fuel cell stacks and single cells. CGN New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.: The Jilin Hydrogen Future Energy Factory Integrated Energy Project issued a procurement notice for an energy-saving assessment report. It is understood that the project had successively completed procurement for reports including water resources assessment, feasibility study, land-use pre-examination, hydrogen pipeline design, and power market analysis. Shaanxi Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd.: It released a public notice on the social stability risk assessment survey for Phase I of the 30 GW new energy green hydrogen production and hydrogen pipeline project (Inner Mongolia section). According to the notice, the project is located in Tuke Town, Uxin Banner, Ordos, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. It is understood that the hydrogen pipeline route is 19.6 km long, with a design pressure of 6.3 MPa, and uses L290QH steel pipe material (seamless steel pipe). Total project investment is about 449.38 million yuan. Allocated by route length (with the Uxin Banner section accounting for 53.4%), the estimated investment within the area is about 239.97 million yuan. The project construction period is 2026–2028. PetroChina Shenzhen New Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd. : Its hydrogen energy R&D department plans to custom-process one set of MW-class brine hydrogen production electrolyser equipment, with hydrogen production capacity of no less than 200 Nm³/h. Tender scope: procurement of one set of brine hydrogen production electrolyser equipment. Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited: It officially signed the Phase I project of the Inner Mongolia Baofeng coal-based new materials wind and solar power hydrogen production project. According to the agreement, Shanghai Electric will provide eight 1,250 Nm³/h alkaline electrolysers, the world’s largest single-set 5,000 Nm³/h separation and purification system, and an industry-first outdoor three-dimensional layout solution. Suqian Green Energy Hydrogen Innovation Technology Co., Ltd.: During the 5th China International Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry Exhibition, Suqian Green Energy Hydrogen Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. and China Power Engineering Consulting Group Northwest Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd. held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony at the China National Convention Center in Beijing for a domestic MW-class AEM electrolyser testing project. Shenneng Northern Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.: It issued procurement for the preparation of a feasibility study report for the Etuoke Banner wind power hydrogen production integration green application project (Phase II), covering hydrogen production by water electrolysis and SAF synthesis. It is understood that the Etuoke Banner 505 MW wind and solar power hydrogen production integration green ammonia synthesis project (Phase I) was successfully selected in October 2025 as one of the first batch of hydrogen energy pilot projects in China’s energy sector, and is planned to be fully completed and put into operation in August 2026. Policy Review​ 1. Notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments on issuing the Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of Energy-Saving Equipment (2026–2028). The document stated that by 2028, mass-produced water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment should achieve DC power consumption of less than 4.2 kWh/Nm³ under rated operating conditions. 2. Notice of the General Office of the National Energy Administration on issuing the Guidelines for the Establishment of 2026 Energy Industry Standard Plans. The key areas for the 2026 energy industry standard plan include eight items. In the hydrogen energy field, key directions include fundamentals and general applications, hydrogen production and conversion, hydrogen storage and transportation, hydrogen refuelling, hydrogen power and power generation, and hydrogen equipment. 3. Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 18 of 2026: announcement of the launch of a trade barrier investigation into US practices and measures that hinder trade in green products. Preliminary evidence and information obtained by the Ministry of Commerce showed that the US had implemented multiple practices and measures in trade-related areas that hinder trade in green products, including but not limited to restricting exports of green products to the US, slowing new energy deployment, and restricting technology cooperation related to green products. Enterprise Updates​​ Xieqing (Shanghai) New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: Its hydrogen-powered drone H100 was officially put into use for material transport by China Post in Suibin County/Bayan County, Heilongjiang, entering the stage of regularised operations. Henan Junheng Industrial Group Biotechnology Co., Ltd. : Five reactors for its 1 million mt/year waste oil and fat processing sustainable aviation fuel project were successfully hoisted into place. Hubei Yingteli Electric Co., Ltd.: The two sets of thousand-cubic-metre-class IGBT hydrogen production power supplies it provided were successfully applied in South Korea’s first off-grid green hydrogen production project. Ordos Hanxia New Energy Co., Ltd. : At the hydrogen production plant of the Narisong PV hydrogen production industry demonstration project in Jungar Banner, Ordos, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the first truckload of 99.999% national-standard high-purity green hydrogen in 2026 was successfully dispatched after filling operations were completed. Hydshine Energy (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd.: It announced the completion of its Pre-B round of financing. This round was exclusively strategically invested by the Shenzhen Energy Storage Fund. It is understood that the funds will be mainly used for global market expansion, next-generation product R&D, and industrialisation capabilities. Shanghai Hydrogen Energy Group Co., Ltd.: It was successfully recognised as a “Shanghai Specialised, Sophisticated, Distinctive and Innovative SME” in the first batch list of Shanghai specialised and sophisticated small and medium-sized enterprises. Tianneng Battery Group Co., Ltd. : During the Tianneng 2026 Spring New Product Launch held in Tianjin, Tianneng signed strategic cooperation agreements with multiple partners on hydrogen fuel cells and solid-state batteries. In hydrogen energy, Tianneng joined hands with Guangdong Vision Holding Group and Tianjin Weida Space Technology to deepen the deployment of hydrogen-powered shared bicycle scenarios and promote the rollout of this model in more cities. ​​Patent Applications​​ 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences​​ (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. ​​2. Johnson Matthey​​ (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications​​ 1. Professor Yu Ying’s team at Central China Normal University developed a three-dimensional graded nanostructured catalytic electrode, a core part for seawater hydrogen production. 2. Dalian University of Technology designed an electron-pump catalyst with an asymmetric photoresponse structure to maintain asymmetry in electron distribution. 3.​​Research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering at Xi’an Jiaotong University and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis. 4. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum group metals and ionomers in PEM fuel cells and electrolysers, significantly reducing the carbon footprint. 5. Teams from Xi’an Jiaotong University and Peking University jointly developed a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and economics of AEM water electrolysis hydrogen production and supporting the scale-up of low-cost green hydrogen.

On March 30, Republican Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bill Cassidy jointly proposed the Mined in America Act, aiming to promote the return of cryptocurrency mining to the U.S., while legislating the strategic Bitcoin reserves established by Trump through executive order into the legal framework.

As the global energy transition accelerates, the NEV industry is booming at an unprecedented pace. Behind this green transformation, battery recycling—a critical link tied to resource security, environmental protection, and the sustainable development of industry—has quietly emerged as a new industry worth hundreds of billions. From an “environmental burden” to an “urban mine,” the battery recycling industry is demonstrating unprecedentedly broad prospects. Strong policy support has laid a solid foundation for the development of the battery recycling industry. In February 2025, the Executive Meeting of the State Council reviewed and approved the Action Plan for Improving the Recycling System for NEV Power Batteries, explicitly proposing the improvement of the standards system to achieve standardized, safe, and efficient recycling and utilization of power batteries. More importantly, the Interim Measures for the Administration of the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Retired NEV Power Batteries, which will officially take effect on April 1, 2026, marks a new stage in the law-based and standardized management of power battery recycling and utilization in China. The core provisions of this new regulation, jointly issued by six departments including the MIIT, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, include: Establishing a digital ID system: generating a unique and dynamic digital ID for each power battery pack to enable full life cycle flow monitoring and information-based traceability Implementing the “vehicle-battery integrated retirement” system: retired NEVs must include their power batteries to prevent battery loss Clarifying the responsibilities of all parties: power battery enterprises and NEV producers must establish recycling service outlets and assume fallback responsibility for collection Defining red lines for comprehensive utilization: enterprises engaged in the comprehensive utilization of retired power batteries must complete the relevant procedures in accordance with the law, and such batteries are prohibited from being used in restricted fields such as e-bikes Battery recycling is not only an industry, but also a green revolution concerning the sustainable development of humanity. From policy support to technological innovation, and from resource security to industrial upgrading, China’s battery recycling industry is advancing at an unprecedented speed and with unprecedented intensity. As the 14th Five-Year Plan is implemented in greater depth and the “dual carbon” goals continue to advance, this “urban mine” of battery recycling will release enormous economic, environmental, and social value, contributing China’s wisdom and solutions to the global energy transition and the development of the circular economy.

[SMM Nickel Flash] Iranian Parliament Approves Bill to Levy Transit Fees on the Strait of Hormuz, Payable in Iran’s Local Currency According to CCTV News, on March 30 local time, the National Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament passed a bill proposing to charge fees to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The plan includes implementing financial arrangements and a fee-charging system in Iranian rials; prohibiting US and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz; maintaining Iran and its armed forces’ dominant position; barring passage by countries participating in unilateral sanctions against Iran; and cooperating with Oman to formulate the relevant legal framework.

The current development of the gold price continues to cause frustration for many investors. Despite the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, gold has so far failed to gain lasting new momentum from these events.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Technical Recovery Coupled with Expectations of a Temporary Easing in Geopolitical Tensions Drives a Rebound in Tin Prices]

[SMM Rare Earth Flash] Australian exploration and development company VHM announced on March 23 that it had approved the transition of its Goschen rare earth and mineral sands project in Victoria to full-scale development, abandoning its previous phased advancement strategy and directly launching large-scale operations with annual processing capacity of 5 million mt. The project was granted major project status by the Australian federal government in 2021 and had completed pre-feasibility and definitive feasibility studies, with development conditions fully in place. This move will accelerate the release of the project's resource potential and support the development of Australia's rare earth supply chain.

Precious metals staged their first coordinated rally in nearly two weeks on Tuesday as the prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to lift market sentiment and weaken the dollar.

SMM News: Following our previous analysis of the transportation and wind power sectors, this installment shifts focus to the critical demand drivers in the consumer and construction domains: White Goods , Consumer Electronics , and Real Estate-related applications (Elevators and Power Tools). While these sectors individually consume less magnetic material per unit compared to New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), their sheer aggregate volume makes them indispensable pillars of the Neodymium-Praseodymium (Pr-Nd) market. However, data from early 2026 reveals a troubling trend of stagnation and structural contraction across these traditional strongholds. I. White Goods: The Dual Pressure of Production Slumps and Material Substitution In the white goods sector, Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets are primarily utilized in two key applications: compressors for inverter air conditioners and motors for drum and impeller washing machines . 1. Air Conditioners: A Sharp Contraction in Output and Dosage According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s cumulative air conditioner production for January-February 2026 stood at 40.118 million units , a staggering 35% year-on-year (YoY) decline compared to the 61.921 million units produced in the same period of 2025. (Reason: This drastic drop is attributed to a combination of factors: firstly, an unusually mild winter across major consumption regions significantly dampened heating demand, leading to a destocking cycle among distributors. Secondly, the real estate sector’s continued downturn has severely curtailed new housing completions, directly reducing the installation of centralized and split AC systems. Lastly, high inventory levels carried over from 2025 forced manufacturers to aggressively cut production schedules in Q1 2026 to avoid capital lock-up.) Looking at the full year, SMM forecasts a marginal growth of 0.96% for 2026, with total annual production projected at 271.095 million units . (Reason: The near-flat growth outlook reflects a mature market saturation where replacement demand, rather than new installations, drives volume. While export markets offer some resilience against domestic weakness, rising trade barriers and logistical costs in key regions like Europe and North America are expected to cap significant expansion.) Applying SMM’s calculation model: Inverter Penetration: 99% NdFeB Motor Penetration: 92% Specific Consumption: Assumed at 100g/unit for 2026. Based on these parameters, the total NdFeB consumption for the air conditioner sector in 2026 is estimated at 24,691 tons , representing a 23% decrease from the 29,163 tons consumed in 2025. The core driver of this decline is twofold: first, the persistently high prices of Pr-Nd since the second half of 2025 have accelerated the industry’s cost-reduction initiatives. Second, there is a clear technological shift towards minimizing rare earth usage. The average single-unit dosage has dropped from 120g/unit in 2025 to 100g/unit in 2026 , as manufacturers optimize motor designs and, in some lower-end models, substitute with ferrite magnets or induction motor technologies where efficiency standards allow. 2. Washing Machines: A Slow Erosion of Demand For January-February 2026, China’s cumulative washing machine production was 18.58 million units , a slight 0.3% YoY decline from the 18.51 million units in the same period of 2025. (Reason: The stability in production volumes masks underlying weakness. The slight dip is primarily due to weak consumer confidence impacting discretionary spending on home appliance upgrades. Furthermore, the export market for washing machines has faced headwinds from sluggish global economic growth and intensified competition from Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs, offsetting modest domestic recovery efforts.) SMM projects a full-year growth rate of 3.1% for 2026. (Reason: This modest recovery is underpinned by government-led "trade-in" subsidy policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption of energy-efficient appliances. Additionally, product innovation in the high-end segment, such as washer-dryer combos and smart features, is expected to stimulate some replacement demand, though the overall ceiling remains low.) Demand Calculation Logic: Drum Washer Penetration: 63% (High-end, 98% use NdFeB) Impeller Washer Penetration: 28% (Mid-range, 50% use NdFeB) Specific Consumption: 290g/unit for drum washers; 240g/unit for impeller washers. Under this model, the total NdFeB demand for washing machines in 2026 is estimated at 27,204.52 tons , a 0.2% decrease from 27,262 tons in 2025. The sector is experiencing a slow but steady erosion of demand. While high-end drum washers rely heavily on efficient NdFeB motors to meet stringent energy labels, the volatility of rare earth prices is prompting manufacturers to cautiously explore alternative motor designs or reduce magnet grades in non-critical applications. Consequently, the industry has adopted a strategy of gradual reduction rather than abrupt substitution, balancing performance requirements with cost control. Outlook: The trajectory for white goods in 2026 is undeniably pessimistic. Both production volumes and technical intensity (dosage per unit) are trending downward, creating a double drag on Pr-Nd demand. II. Consumer Electronics: Volume Resilience vs. Intensity Decline The consumer electronics sector, modeled by SMM, comprises four main segments: Mobile Phones , Tablets , Desktops/Laptops , and Smartwatches . These devices utilize NdFeB primarily for acoustic components (speakers/receivers) and haptic feedback motors, with emerging uses in magnetic charging interfaces. The specific consumption is generally low, ranging from 2-5g/unit , except for desktops which average 15g/unit . Market Performance (Jan-Feb 2026): Mobile Phones: 220 million units (+6.8% YoY). Micro-computer Equipment: 41.956 million units (-31% YoY). Breakdown: 21% Tablets, 27% Desktops, 52% Laptops. Smartwatches: 8.196 million units (+7.8% YoY). (Reason: The divergence in performance is stark. Mobile phone growth is driven by the global rollout of AI-enabled handsets and the replacement cycle for 5G devices, particularly in emerging markets. Conversely, the sharp collapse in micro-computer equipment reflects the post-pandemic normalization of demand; the massive stockpiling of devices during 2020-2022 has led to a prolonged digestion phase. Additionally, extended device lifespans due to improved hardware durability have further suppressed replacement rates for PCs and tablets.) 2026 Full-Year Forecast: SMM anticipates a 1% growth for mobile phones and micro-computers combined, and a 5% growth for smartwatches. (Reason: The muted outlook for computing devices stems from persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and corporate IT budget tightening. For smartwatches, growth is fueled by increasing health-monitoring capabilities and deeper ecosystem integration with smartphones. However, the entire sector faces a cloud of uncertainty due to escalating geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and rising memory chip prices, which may force OEMs to revise production targets downward later in the year.) Demand Estimation: Mobile Phones: 3,109.8 tons Micro-computers: 2,018.9 tons Smartwatches: 125.06 tons Total 2026 Demand: 5,253.76 tons , a 3% decline from 5,421.19 tons in 2025. The primary driver for this decline is the continuous, albeit slow, reduction in specific consumption. As miniaturization advances and alternative magnetic materials improve, the amount of NdFeB required per device is shrinking. Despite the relatively low single-unit dosage, the massive scale of the consumer electronics industry ensures it remains a significant consumer of NdFeB. Moreover, this sector is characterized by highly standardized supply chains, where major OEMs maintain binding agreements with certified magnet suppliers, making demand relatively stable but resistant to price-driven spikes. III. Real Estate Related: Elevators and Power Tools The final segment covers industries tightly coupled with the real estate cycle: Elevators and Handheld Power Tools . 1. Elevators: Policy Support vs. Structural Headwinds In January-February 2026, elevator production reached 150,000 units , a 7.1% YoY increase . (Reason: This short-term surge is largely attributable to the acceleration of projects that were delayed in late 2025, as developers rushed to meet pre-delivery deadlines before stricter regulatory inspections took effect. Additionally, government mandates for retrofitting old residential communities with elevators in urban renewal zones provided a temporary boost to order books.) However, SMM forecasts a full-year contraction of -3% for 2026. (Reason: The long-term outlook is grim due to the fundamental slowdown in new residential construction starts, which remain at multi-year lows. The debt crisis plaguing major property developers continues to stall new project launches, directly impacting the demand for new elevator installations. While the retrofit market offers some support, it is insufficient to offset the collapse in new building commissions.) Calculation: Energy-saving Elevator Penetration: 90% Specific Consumption: 6 kg/unit (for energy-saving models). Total 2026 Demand: 7,222.6 tons , a 1.3% increase from 7,125.3 tons in 2025. (Reason for Growth: The slight increase in total tonnage despite falling production volumes is entirely driven by the rising penetration of energy-saving elevators. Stricter national energy efficiency standards (GB standards) are forcing manufacturers to adopt permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSM) over traditional asynchronous motors, thereby increasing the average NdFeB dosage per unit even as the total number of units declines.) 2. Handheld Power Tools: A Direct Casualty of Property Slump Production of handheld power tools in Jan-Feb 2026 was 29.566 million units , down 0.24% YoY . SMM projects a -3% decline for the full year 2026. (Reason: The downturn is inextricably linked to the stagnation in the global and domestic real estate markets. Reduced renovation activities and a slowdown in infrastructure projects have dampened demand for professional-grade tools. Furthermore, high inventory levels in distribution channels across North America and Europe, resulting from over-ordering in 2024, have led to a prolonged period of destocking.) Definition & Scope: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, handheld electric tools refer to portable motor-driven tools operated by hand, including electric drills, grinders, sanders, saws, and screwdrivers . These products are highly sensitive to housing turnover and renovation rates. Demand Calculation: NdFeB Penetration: 60% Specific Consumption: 80g/unit Total 2026 Demand: 9,134 tons , a sharp 13.4% drop from 10,548 tons in 2025. The significant contraction in this sector underscores the deep correlation between the property market and industrial metal demand. As the real estate sector remains in a prolonged adjustment phase, the downstream demand for power tools—and consequently NdFeB—faces sustained pressure. Conclusion The analysis of white goods, consumer electronics, and real estate-related sectors paints a picture of structural weakness for 2026. While niche policy drivers (like energy-saving elevator mandates) provide isolated pockets of growth, the overarching trends are defined by production saturation, inventory destocking, and aggressive material substitution . The combined effect of lower production volumes and reduced single-unit dosages creates a formidable headwind for Pr-Nd prices. In the final installment of this series, we will pivot to the future: examining the burgeoning demand from Low-Altitude Economy (eVTOLs), Robotics (Industrial and Service), and the relentless expansion of Electric Two-Wheelers . These emerging sectors may hold the key to offsetting the declines observed in traditional industries and reshaping the long-term demand curve for rare earth magnets.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] PLN Indonesia Power (PLN IP) has announced plans to develop 268 power plant projects under the RUPTL 2025–2034, with a total additional capacity of 30,276.2 MW (30.2 GW). The projects will be spread across all regions of Indonesia to support equitable energy infrastructure and strengthen national energy security. PLN IP CEO Bernadus Sudarmanta emphasized that the success of this program depends heavily on collaboration with various strategic partners, both domestic and foreign. “We are open to broad cooperation to accelerate the realization of these projects. Collaboration is the key to delivering a reliable, sustainable electricity system that supports national economic growth,” he said.