A month ago, Caixin reported that as Trump's erratic tariff policies last month triggered a wave of selling of US assets, a new wave of "de-dollarization" was gaining momentum in Asia. Now, an increasing number of market participants are clearly unable to ignore the "rise" of this trend... On May 26, ASEAN committed in its newly released "Strategic Plan for the ASEAN Economic Community 2026-2030" to promoting the use of local currencies in trade and investment, and proposed measures such as expanding the use of local currencies for settlement and strengthening regional payment connectivity to mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations. Lin Li, Head of Asia Global Markets Research at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), told the media that as Asian economies seek to reduce their reliance on the US dollar, particularly by using their own currencies as a medium of exchange to reduce foreign exchange risks, the trend of de-dollarization is strengthening. Although de-dollarization itself is not a new phenomenon, recent developments may have undergone a qualitative change. Investors and officials are beginning to recognize that, even if the US dollar has not been openly weaponized in trade negotiations, it can and has been used as a "bargaining chip." Mitul Kotecha, Head of Asia FX and Emerging Markets Macro Strategy at Barclays, said that this has prompted a reevaluation of investment portfolios that were previously heavily overweight in the US dollar. "Countries are focusing on the fact that the US dollar has been and can be used as a weapon in trade, direct sanctions, and other areas... I think this is the real change over the past few months," he said. Two Forces Accelerating the Evolution A recent report by Bank of America pointed out that the trend of ASEAN moving away from the US dollar is intensifying, driven by two main forces: ① Individuals and businesses are gradually starting to convert their US dollar savings back into local currencies; ② Large investors are beginning to hedge foreign investments more actively. Abhay Gupta, Asia Fixed Income and FX Strategist at Bank of America, said, "The de-dollarization process in ASEAN may accelerate, primarily through the conversion of foreign exchange deposits accumulated since 2022." In addition to ASEAN, BRICS countries, including India and China, are also actively developing and promoting their own payment systems to bypass traditional Western payment systems like SWIFT and reduce reliance on the US dollar. China has also been promoting the use of the yuan for bilateral trade settlement. Barclays' Kotecha pointed out that de-dollarization is a "continuous, slow process," but the gradual decline of the US dollar's status can be witnessed in both central bank reserve shares and trade settlement shares. He specifically mentioned the substantial overseas assets held by countries such as Singapore, South Korea, and China, which have significant potential for repatriating foreign exchange earnings. Andy Ji, Asia FX and Rates Analyst at ITC Markets, shares this sentiment. He points out that economies most reliant on trade will experience a more pronounced decline in demand for the US dollar. He specifically mentioned the economies within the 10+3 cooperation mechanism, which includes China, Japan, South Korea, and the 10 ASEAN member states. As of November last year, over 80% of trade in this region was still denominated in US dollars. Nomura Securities has observed a new trend: Asian investors are strengthening their hedging against US dollar exposure. Nomura notes that as Asian investors increasingly hedge against US dollar risks, a trend of de-dollarization is also emerging. Foreign exchange hedging refers to investors protecting themselves from significant currency value fluctuations by locking in exchange rates to avoid losses in the event of unexpected weakening or strengthening of the US dollar. Craig Chan, Global Head of FX Strategy at Nomura Securities, stated, "Some of the currencies that have recently performed strongly include the Japanese yen, South Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar." He observed that a considerable portion of foreign exchange hedging transactions come from institutional investors such as life insurance companies, pension funds, and hedge funds. According to Nomura Securities, the hedging ratio of Japanese life insurance companies was originally around 44%. In April and May, this figure rose to around 48%. Nomura Securities estimates that the hedging ratio of life insurance companies in Taiwan, China, is around 70%. When investors hedge against US dollar risks, they sell US dollars and buy local or other currencies, which increases demand for the US dollar and causes non-US currencies to appreciate against the US dollar. Is a structural shift underway? Clearly, the rise of this de-dollarization trend has once again raised a "perennial" question: Is this merely a phase of temporary reduction in US dollar holdings, or a more drastic structural shift? In fact, although similar shifts are more pronounced in Asia, the world is actually reducing its reliance on the US dollar—the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has declined from over 70% in 2000 to 57.8% in 2024. Recently, due to uncertainties surrounding a series of decisions by the Trump administration, the US dollar has experienced a significant decline this year, particularly in April. Since the beginning of this year, the US dollar index has fallen by more than 8%, marking the worst performance in the first five months of the year in history, according to Dow Jones Market Data. However, some industry observers also state that despite many countries reducing their reliance on the US dollar, it remains challenging to replace the US dollar as the primary reserve currency. Cedric Chehab, chief economist at BMI, said that, for now, this may still be merely cyclical. He pointed out that it could only transform into a structural trend if the US implements sanctions more aggressively, prompting central banks to be wary of holding excessive US dollars, or if governments mandate pension funds to increase their holdings of domestic assets. Of course, the first threat mentioned by Chehab may have already occurred to some extent. What undoubtedly concerns many foreign entities the most is undoubtedly "Clause 899" in Trump's latest tax reform bill. If approved by Congress, this clause would allow the US to impose additional taxes on companies and investors from countries it deems to be implementing punitive tax policies. George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said that this would mark the formal incorporation of the weaponization of US capital markets into law. Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, pointed out that "Trump's erratic trade policy decisions and the significant depreciation of the US dollar may be encouraging a faster shift towards other currencies." Peter Kinsella, global head of FX strategy at Union Bancaire Privée, reminded people to distinguish between the weakening of the US dollar and de-dollarization. "The US dollar has gone through multiple cycles of depreciation, yet its hegemony as a reserve currency remains unchanged," he added. Even with reduced exposure, the US dollar's core position in trade invoicing remains solid—over half of global trade was still settled in US dollars in April this year. However, Kinsella also mentioned that, "the long-term declining trend in the US dollar's status as a reserve asset will continue, and I firmly believe that gold will be the biggest beneficiary." According to a report released by the European Central Bank on Wednesday, gold accounted for 20% of global official reserves in 2024, making it the second-largest reserve asset globally, second only to the US dollar at 46%.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Spot Order Market Transactions Remain Sluggish, Lead Prices May Maintain Fluctuating Trend]...SHFE lead continued its fluctuating trend, with suppliers shipping goods according to market conditions. The discounts for some warrant cargo quotations widened compared to last Friday, while the discounts for cargoes self-picked up from production site narrowed. Primary lead quotations in major producing areas were at premiums of 0-125 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. Additionally, there were more production cuts at secondary lead smelters, and market quotations were scattered...

Overnight Stock Market Major global indices generally rose on Tuesday, with all three major US stock indices closing higher. Chip stocks surged across the board, with Nvidia rising nearly 3%, extending gains from Monday, surpassing Microsoft in market capitalization, and once again becoming the world's most valuable company. Commodity Markets WTI crude oil futures closed at $63.41 per barrel, up $0.89, or 1.42%. Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.63 per barrel, up $1, or 1.55%. COMEX gold futures closed down 0.6% at $3,376.9 per ounce. COMEX silver futures closed down 0.05% at $34.675 per ounce. Market News [South Korea's Presidential Election Voting Results Bill Passes, Lee Jae-myung's Presidency Officially Begins] At 6 a.m. local time on June 4, the National Election Commission of South Korea held a plenary session and passed the bill on the presidential election voting results, officially marking the beginning of Lee Jae-myung's presidency. Around 5:03 a.m. local time on June 4, the vote counting for South Korea's 21st presidential election concluded. According to the results, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea received 49.42% of the votes, Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party received 41.15%, and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform and Innovation Party received 8.34%. [White House Says Trump Signed Order to Raise Steel and Aluminum Tariffs, Effective from Early Morning of June 4] The US White House issued a statement saying that President Trump had signed an order to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 a.m. Eastern Time on the 4th. The statement indicated that tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the UK would remain at 25%. [US Government Proposes First Spending Cut Plan, Requests Recall of $9.4 Billion] The US White House submitted a request to Congress on the same day to recall $9.4 billion in approved spending, most of which was for foreign aid. Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, stated that he had officially received the White House's request to recall $9.4 billion in wasteful foreign aid spending for organizations such as the US Agency for International Development and the Public Broadcasting Service. Mike Johnson said the House would act swiftly. It is understood that after the submission of the plan, Congress will have 45 days to process it. [Details of US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations Revealed: US Proposes Temporary Permission for Iran to Continue Uranium Enrichment] According to anonymous Iranian and European officials, the US proposed temporary measures during the US-Iran nuclear negotiations to allow Iran to continue low-enriched uranium enrichment activities while the US and other countries develop more detailed plans. The New York Times reported on the 3rd that the US and other countries will formulate a more detailed plan aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons while allowing it to obtain the fuel needed for new nuclear power plants. According to the plan, the US will assist Iran in building nuclear reactors and negotiate the construction of a uranium enrichment facility managed by a coalition of regional countries. Once Iran begins to receive the promised benefits, it must cease all uranium enrichment activities within its borders. Iranian and European officials revealed that the plan has been submitted to Iran. [Zelensky: Opposes Unilateral Restart of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant] Ukrainian President Zelensky held talks with IAEA Director General Grossi on the 3rd. Zelensky stated that the two sides discussed the safety of Ukraine's nuclear facilities, as well as the completion of the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant, uranium mining, and the restoration of the damaged sarcophagus at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Zelensky expressed that any Russian idea of restarting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant without Ukraine's involvement is absurd and dangerous. He emphasized that the IAEA should be stationed at the nuclear power plant for this purpose. [US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Will Correct "Minor Errors" in April Employment Data on Friday] The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that it will correct "minor errors" in April's employment data while releasing May's data on Friday, adding that the relevant adjustments will not affect key indicators such as the unemployment rate. In a statement on Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, "Due to minor errors in weights resulting from the introduction of a redesigned Current Population Survey (CPS) sample, some estimates for April 2025 will be corrected on June 6, 2025." "Major labor force indicators such as the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-to-population ratio were not affected. Although many estimates will be corrected, the impact will be negligible." [Musk Criticizes Tax Reform Bill as "Absurd"; White House: Does Not Affect Trump's Position] US White House Press Secretary Levitt stated on the 3rd that Elon Musk's criticism "will not change" US President Trump's support for the massive tax and spending bill. It is reported that Musk posted a message on a social media platform on the same day, calling the massive bill "absurd and riddled with political manipulation." Musk claimed that the bill would significantly increase the budget deficit to $2.5 trillion, imposing an unbearable debt burden on US citizens. [White House Confirms Authenticity of Letter "Urging" Trade Negotiation Partners to "Submit Proposals"] The US White House Press Secretary stated on the 3rd that she could confirm the authenticity of the content of the letter regarding the deadline for trade negotiations. She said that the Office of the US Trade Representative sent the letter to trading partners merely to remind them of the approaching deadline, and that US President Trump was looking forward to reaching a good agreement. [Meta Reportedly Focused on Developing "Ultra-thin Open-type Headset"] Meta was reported to be adjusting its development plans: it intends to scrap the upgrade projects for its current VR products and accelerate the launch of an "ultra-thin open-type headset" before the end of next year. According to overseas tech media citing multiple sources familiar with the matter, the two alternative upgrade plans for the VR glasses Quest 4, "Pismo Low" and "Pismo High," have been canceled. Therefore, Meta's next Quest headset with a traditional design will not be launched until at least 2027. At the end of last year, Meta also confirmed that an alternative project for its high-end VR headset Quest Pro 2 had been scrapped. Meanwhile, Meta is accelerating the R&D project for its ultra-thin open-type headset, code-named "Puffin," with the goal of launching it before the end of 2026. In terms of form factor, the device will connect an independent computing module and a battery via cables. Sources familiar with the matter said that Meta is exploring display system solutions at different price points for this product, and the final mass-produced version has not yet been determined. [US eVTOL Company and Saudi Enterprise Explore Cooperation Opportunities, with Potential Delivery of 200 Electric Aircraft in the Future] On Tuesday (June 3) local time, Abdul Latif Jameel, a well-known Saudi enterprise, announced on its official website that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Joby Aviation, a US company, to explore opportunities for establishing a distribution agreement for Joby's eVTOLs in Saudi Arabia. The press release stated that the two parties are expected to deliver up to 200 Joby Aviation aircraft and related services in the coming years, with the total transaction value potentially approaching $1 billion. "In the long run, both Abdul Latif Jameel and Joby see potential revenue opportunities in the Middle East region," it said. [Broadcom Announces Delivery of Switch Chips, Setting an Industry Record for Capacity] On June 3, Broadcom announced the official delivery of its Tomahawk® 6-series switch chips, setting an industry record with a switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps per single chip, which doubles the bandwidth of existing Ethernet switch products. [Meta and Constellation Sign 20-Year Power Supply Agreement] On Tuesday local time, tech giant Meta reached a 20-year agreement with Constellation Energy, the largest owner of nuclear power plants in the US, to meet the power demand driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. According to the released statement, starting from June 2027, Meta will purchase approximately 1.1 gigawatts of electricity from Constellation's Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois, which represents the full power generation capacity of one of the center's nuclear reactors.

On the macro front, as China and the US reached a substantive consensus on easing economic and trade tensions in Geneva, the trajectory of the US's trade policies toward major economies has once again fluctuated. Despite the US Secretary of Commerce expressing the intention to finalize agreements with major trading partners before summer, President Trump recently reiterated the possibility of imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, leading to heightened market risk aversion and putting pressure on the US dollar index. The 90-day negotiation window briefly reopened between the US and the EU still faces significant uncertainty. Trump's tax reform bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives, proposing a substantial increase of $4 trillion in the debt ceiling. It is expected that the scale of US debt will expand by an additional $3.3 trillion over the next decade, with the federal debt ratio potentially surging to 125% of GDP, indicating an increasingly aggressive path of fiscal expansion. In terms of monetary policy, although some Fed officials, such as Waller, lean toward initiating interest rate cuts in H2 if tariffs decline, given the frequent changes in trade policies and the potential impact of tariffs on supply chains, the market believes that the Fed is unlikely to take substantive action before July, and the pace of interest rate cuts may be delayed. This week, copper prices fluctuated rangebound as expected, with LME copper trading around $9,550-9,650/mt and SHFE copper trading around 77,700-78,500 yuan/mt. On the fundamental front, Antofagasta conducted negotiations for mid-2025 long-term contracts in Japan last week, with the initial TC offer at -$15/mt. According to market sources, the Japanese side showed low acceptance of this offer, and no specific figures were released during the first round of negotiations in China this week. Mid-week, the incident at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the DRC gradually escalated, with both major shareholders issuing statements announcing the suspension of underground mining operations, with the total impact yet to be assessed. For copper cathode, spot premiums both domestically and internationally declined this week, with no pre-holiday stocking demand evident and social inventory remaining flat overall. The SHFE backwardation structure narrowed for consecutive months, while the LME backwardation structure expanded significantly. Looking ahead to next week, macroeconomic data for May from various countries is set to be released. Affected by tariffs, it is expected that economic data for April-May will show little marginal growth overall, and copper prices are anticipated to remain flat. It is expected that LME copper will fluctuate rangebound between $9,350-9,550/mt next week, while SHFE copper will fluctuate between 77,000-78,000 yuan/mt. On the spot front, as the country gradually enters the off-season for consumption, downstream demand remains weak amid high copper prices. However, the supply of imported copper is also tight, leading to a state of weak balance with both supply and demand decreasing domestically. It is expected that spot premiums will stabilize after a slight drop. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2506 contract are expected to range from a premium of 80-150 yuan/mt.

[Russian Energy Ministry Proposes New Tax Reform for Oil Sector, Advocates Expanding Excess Profit Tax to Ease Industry Burden] According to Izvestia in May, Russia’s Ministry of Energy is preparing a new “tax maneuver” aimed at easing the fiscal burden on oil and gas companies and attracting investment. At a recent industry conference, ministry officials announced plans to reform the tax regime for oil producers. Core measures include expanding the application of the excess profit tax (EPT), granting reductions in the mineral extraction tax (MET), and offering incentives for geological exploration activities. Anton Rubtsov, Head of the Oil and Gas Development Department under the ministry, stated that the reform is grounded in the "Energy Strategy 2050", which has already been adopted. Under this strategy, Russia aims to maintain annual oil production at 540 million tonnes for the next 25 years — a goal that will increasingly depend on the development of hard-to-recover reserves (HTR). Data shows that from 2010 to 2024, the share of HTR in Russia's oil output structure has surged from 20% to 63%. Over the same period, average well flow rates have dropped from 43.4 tonnes to 25.3 tonnes per day, and water cut has risen from 28.8% to 52.3%. The share of horizontal drilling has also grown sharply, from 10.1% to 64%, indicating significantly higher development complexity and costs. However, the proposed tax reform still faces resistance from the Ministry of Finance.

[SMM Commentary: Precious Metal Futures and Stocks Performed "Remarkably" This Week, While Spot Silver Trading Remained Sluggish. How Do Major Institutions View the Market Outlook?] On May 23, amid intensifying market concerns over the deterioration of the US fiscal outlook, a weaker US dollar, and ongoing unrest in the Middle East, market risk-averse sentiment surged, driving precious metal futures and stocks to rise in tandem. In the futures market: As of 16:15 on May 23, COMEX gold rose by 1.01%, closing at $3,328.4 per ounce; COMEX silver rose by 0.7%, closing at $33.45 per ounce; SHFE gold rose by 0.1%, while SHFE silver fell by 0.37%, and silver T+D fell by 0.39%. In the stock market: On the 23rd, as the broader market experienced a nearly 1% decline, the precious metals sector bucked the trend and strengthened, ultimately leading the gains across all industries with a 1.96% increase.

SMM May 23 News: On May 23, driven by heightened market concerns over the deteriorating fiscal outlook in the US, a weaker US dollar, and ongoing unrest in the Middle East, risk-averse sentiment surged in the market, leading to a collective rally in precious metals futures and stocks. In the futures market: As of 16:15 on May 23, COMEX gold rose by 1.01%, closing at $3,328.4 per ounce; COMEX silver increased by 0.7%, closing at $33.45 per ounce; SHFE gold rose by 0.1%, while SHFE silver fell by 0.37%, and silver T+D declined by 0.39%. In the stock market: On the 23rd, amidst a nearly 1% decline in the broader market, the precious metals sector bucked the trend and strengthened, ultimately leading the gains across all industries with a 1.96% increase. It is worth noting that precious metals futures and stocks have generally performed well this week. As of around 17:09 on May 23, COMEX gold had temporarily risen by 4.37% week-on-week, poised to record its largest single-week gain in over a month; COMEX silver had temporarily increased by 3.16% week-on-week; SHFE gold had risen by 3.76% week-on-week, SHFE silver had risen by 1.95% week-on-week; and the precious metals index had risen by 6.96% week-on-week. News Updates The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) issued a notice on May 23 regarding market risk control during the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The notice stated: In accordance with the holiday schedule for the Dragon Boat Festival, our exchange will be closed from May 31 (Saturday) to June 2 (Monday). There will be no night trading session on the evening of May 30 (Friday), and trading will resume as usual on June 3 (Tuesday). To guard against fluctuations in gold and silver prices in the international market during the holiday, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures", our exchange will adjust the margin ratios and price limits for gold and silver deferred contracts. The relevant matters are hereby notified as follows: 1. Starting from the settlement and clearing at the close of trading on Tuesday, May 27, 2025, the margin ratios for contracts such as Au(T+D), mAu(T+D), Au(T+N1), Au(T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 will be adjusted from 13% to 14%, and the price limits for the next trading day will be adjusted from 12% to 13%; the margin ratio for the Ag(T+D) contract will be adjusted from 16% to 17%, and the price limit for the next trading day will be adjusted from 15% to 16%. If a one-sided market occurs on May 27, and the adjusted margin and price limit levels, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures", are higher than the aforementioned standards, the higher standards shall apply. 2. After trading resumes on Tuesday, June 3, 2025, starting from the settlement and clearing at the close of the first trading day without a one-sided market, the margin ratios for contracts such as Au(T+D), mAu(T+D), Au(T+N1), Au(T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 will revert to 13%, and the price limits for the next trading day will revert to 12%; the margin ratio for the Ag(T+D) contract will revert to 16%, and the price limit for the next trading day will revert to 15%. All members are requested to enhance their awareness of risk prevention, meticulously formulate and implement risk emergency response plans, and advise investors to take measures for risk prevention, reasonably control their positions, invest rationally, and ensure the stable and healthy operation of the market. After last-minute amendments before the vote, the landmark tax cut bill proposed during Trump's 2.0 term finally narrowly passed the US House of Representatives, being sent to the Senate with a slim margin of just one vote in favor over opposition. Market observers are concerned that the measures in the bill may widen the US government's budget deficit, placing greater pressure on the US bond market. (Wall Street CN) On May 23, Bank of America Global Research stated in a report that the gold market experienced a net outflow of $2.9 billion in the week ending Wednesday, marking the largest weekly outflow since April 2013 and the third-largest on record. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week ending May 17 was 227,000, compared to market expectations of 230,000 and the previous week's 229,000. The number of continuing unemployment claims for the week ending May 10 was 1.903 million, compared to market expectations of 1.885 million and the previous week's 1.881 million. The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell by 2,000 to a four-week low last week, indicating that despite uncertainties brought about by trade policies, the labor market remains healthy. However, the number of continuing claims has risen, making it increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. Silver spot prices show significant gains, with market transactions improving. 》Click to view SMM precious metal spot prices 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot prices In the spot market: On May 23, the morning reference average ex-factory price for SMM1# silver was 8,215 yuan/kg, down 54 yuan/kg or 0.65% from the previous trading day. Compared to 8,090 yuan/kg on May 16 (last Friday), the average price of 8,215 yuan/kg represents an increase of 125 yuan/kg, with a weekly gain of 1.55%. It is reported that macroeconomic factors have boosted silver prices this week, with spot premiums from suppliers experiencing a slight decline towards the end of the week. Domestic spot market supply and demand have both declined, with some smelters suspending domestic spot quotes during the week due to factors such as prioritizing export demand. In the Shanghai area, tonne-scale national standard spot silver ingots available for self pick-up were quoted at a premium of 3-5 yuan/kg over TD, while large smelters' spot silver ingots were quoted at a premium of +5 to +8 yuan/kg over TD. Actual transactions at higher premium quotes were relatively difficult this week. In addition, silver nitrate production declined in late May, with downstream purchases primarily focused on long-term contract cargo pick-ups and spot order purchasing enthusiasm significantly weaker compared to April. Voices from All Sides [Is the Gold Bull Market Just Beginning? Analysts Say Historical Experience Suggests Prices Could Reach $4,500] Technical analyst and editor of *Daily Gold*, Jordan Roy-Byrne, pointed out that gold prices broke through a 13-year cup-and-handle formation in March last year, marking an important technical confirmation. Now, the driving factors of the macroeconomic situation are also converging, with the market witnessing rising US Treasury yields, the bond market entering a prolonged bear market, and a collapse in credit quality. He emphasized that similar macroeconomic backgrounds and technical conditions were present during the early stages of the gold bull markets in 1930, 1972, and 2002. Additionally, gold prices have surpassed the S&P 500 Index and the 60/40 portfolio, with inflation-adjusted gold prices just breaking above a 45-year low. Roy-Byrne stated that it is entirely possible for gold prices to reach $3,700 by the end of the year, and historical experience suggests that gold prices will reach $4,400 to $4,500 within the next 12 months. Furthermore, silver prices are also expected to surpass $100. 》Click for details Guosen Futures' research report points out: On the news front, the preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May both rose to 52.3, better than expected and the previous values. Enterprises accelerated stockpiling due to tariff risks, boosting the data. However, supply chain delays and soaring input costs exacerbated inflation stickiness, potentially strengthening market expectations that the US Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged, thereby suppressing precious metals in the short term. Coupled with the advancement of Trump's tax reform bill and the escalating risk of conflict between Iran and Israel, precious metals may continue to oscillate between the logic of policy tightening and stagflation hedging, with short-term technicals likely to remain volatile. In the medium and long-term, global central bank gold purchases and recurring geopolitical tensions are expected to consolidate the allocation value of precious metals. Regarding the trend of precious metals, SDIC Futures believes that the preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May both recorded 52.3, better than expected and the previous values, with weekly initial jobless claims falling to a four-week low of 227,000. Economic data remains resilient, causing precious metals to pull back. With recent trade wars and geopolitical conflicts still in the negotiation phase, market sentiment will continue to fluctuate, and the adjustment of international gold prices is unlikely to end soon. However, gold prices have shown resilience above the strong support level of $3,000 per ounce. The Chief Investment Office (CIO) of UBS Wealth Management expressed institutional views in early May, stating that the US dollar has recently been oversold and is expected to consolidate for a period in the short term. In the medium term, the trend of US dollar weakness may re-emerge, while gold prices should be well supported by "safe-haven" demand and structural buying. Goldman Sachs reiterated its structurally bullish view on gold, with a base case forecast of $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4,000 by mid-2026. The World Gold Council's press conference for the Global Gold Demand Trends Report for Q1 2025 was held on April 30. It was revealed at the conference that demand for gold ETFs in the Chinese market surged synchronously, with inflows of approximately 16.7 billion yuan (about $2.3 billion, equivalent to 23 mt) in Q1, reaching a record high. The soaring gold price and unprecedented inflows propelled both the total assets under management (AUM) and total open interest of gold ETFs to break historical records, reaching highs of 101 billion yuan (about $13.9 billion) and 138 mt, respectively. According to statistics, the total gold consumption demand in the Chinese market in Q1 (including gold bars, coins, and jewelry) was 249 mt, down 15% YoY, primarily due to weak demand for gold jewelry. In addition to bullish views on gold, however, some market participants anticipate a decline in gold prices. Vitaly Nesis, CEO of Solidcore, Kazakhstan's second-largest gold mining company, stated on April 25 that the company plans to produce approximately 15 mt of gold annually in Kazakhstan in 2025 and 2026. Gold has risen nearly 26% year-to-date due to concerns about an economic recession triggered by US tariffs. Nesis expects gold prices to fall in the coming year. He said, "I anticipate gold prices will fall to $2,500 within 12 months. Gold prices will not return to the $1,800-$1,900 range. A premium relative to fundamental levels will persist. However, the current situation represents an overreaction to what is happening in the world." Recommended Reading: 》Silver Bottoms Out and Rebounds, Market Focuses on Inflation and Geopolitical Risk Aversion [SMM Weekly Review of Silver Market]

SMM Nickel News on May 23: Macro News: (1) US President Donald Trump's signature tax reform bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives on Thursday morning, signaling progress on a massive trillion-dollar plan. The plan will avert tax increases at the end of the year, but at the cost of a heavier US debt burden. The bill is now being considered by the Senate, where some Republican lawmakers are demanding significant changes. Lawmakers plan to vote on it by August at the latest. The bill also includes a provision to raise the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion; otherwise, according to Treasury Department forecasts, the US could face a debt default risk as early as August or September, adding urgency to the bill's passage. (2) The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on the 22nd that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, it will conduct a 500 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation on May 23 with a one-year maturity. This MLF operation continues the fixed-quantity, interest-rate tender, and multiple-price winning bid approach. With 125 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, this means the net MLF injection reaches 375 billion yuan, marking the third consecutive month of increased MLF operations. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 123,000-125,350 yuan/mt, with an average price of 124,175 yuan/mt, down 325 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,100-2,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,150 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of Russian nickel is 100-400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 250 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2506) opened lower in the night session and continued to weaken, extending its weakness into the daytime session. As of 11:30, the closing price was 122,660 yuan/mt, down 0.66%. Nickel prices are currently dominated by "intensified policy disruptions and deepening supply-demand imbalance," maintaining a fluctuating trend in the short term, with a support level at 122,000 yuan/mt and a resistance level at 128,000 yuan/mt. The medium and long-term trend is expected to be weak.

[Trump's Tax Reform Bill Passes House by Narrow Margin] US President Donald Trump's landmark tax reform bill was narrowly passed in the House of Representatives on Thursday morning, signaling the advancement of a massive trillion-dollar plan. The plan will avert tax increases at the end of the year, but at the cost of a heavier US debt burden. The bill is now being submitted to the Senate for review, with some Republican lawmakers demanding significant changes. Lawmakers plan to vote on it by August at the latest. The bill also includes a provision to raise the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion; otherwise, according to the Treasury Department's forecast, the US could face the risk of debt default as early as August or September, adding urgency to the bill's passage.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,463.5/mt, dipping to a low of $9,433.5/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $9,519.5/mt near the close, ultimately closing at $9,519.5/mt, up 0.34%.