From Jan to May in 2025, the number of electric vehicles registered in countries around the world was approximately 7.520 million units, about 32.4% increase from the same period last year (5.682 mil units).

The World Bank released its latest Global Economic Prospects report on Tuesday, arguing that heightened uncertainty and high tariffs pose "significant headwinds" to the growth prospects of nearly all economies, leading to a substantial downward revision of its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%. Specifically, the World Bank projects global GDP growth for 2025 at 2.3%, a 0.4 percentage point reduction from its earlier forecast at the beginning of the year, while global GDP growth for 2024 was 2.8%. Since taking office, Trump has raised the US effective tariff rate from less than 3% to nearly 15%, the highest level in nearly a century, contributing to global trade tensions. The World Bank is the latest institution to lower its growth forecast due to Trump's erratic trade policies, despite US officials' insistence that a surge in investment and impending tax cuts will offset these negative consequences. Although the World Bank does not anticipate a recession, it expects global economic growth to be sluggish this year, which, excluding the exceptional year of 2020 (during the pandemic), will be the weakest since the global financial crisis. The report projects global trade growth for 2025 at 1.8%, down from 3.4% in 2024. This forecast is based on tariffs in effect as of the end of May, including the US's 10% benchmark tariff on imports from most countries, but excluding the currently suspended reciprocal tariffs. Economic models suggest that, on top of the already implemented 10% tariffs, a 10 percentage point increase in the average US tariff rate, coupled with retaliation from other countries, could further reduce global GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2025. An escalation of the tariff war would lead to a stagnation in global trade in the second half of this year... followed by a widespread collapse in confidence, a surge in uncertainty, and financial market volatility. Despite this, the World Bank states that the risk of a global recession is less than 10%. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist, said, "Uncertainty remains a powerful headwind, like fog on a runway, slowing investment and casting a shadow over the outlook." However, Kose noted signs of increased dialogue on trade, which could help dispel uncertainty, and that supply chains are adapting to the new global trade landscape rather than collapsing. He mentioned that global trade growth could see a mild rebound to 2.4% in 2026, and that the development of artificial intelligence could also drive growth. "We believe that uncertainty will eventually decline, and once the fog clears, the trade engine may restart, albeit at a slower pace," he said. In developed countries, due to increased trade barriers, record-breaking uncertainty, and heightened financial market volatility, the World Bank expects the US economy to grow by 1.4% in 2025. In January this year, the institution had forecast a 2.3% growth for the US economy in 2025. The economic outlook for the Eurozone is relatively bleak, with an expected growth rate of 0.7% this year; Japan's growth rate is expected to be 0.4% this year. As a whole, emerging markets and developing countries are expected to grow by 3.8% this year, down from the 4.1% forecast in January. Mexico, which heavily relies on trade with the US, has seen its growth forecast for 2025 revised down by 1.3 percentage points to 0.2%.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME copper was closed overnight. The SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 77,740 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 78,340 yuan/mt and a low of 77,710 yuan/mt during the session. The closing price was 78,150 yuan/mt. The overall trend fluctuated upward. The price increase was 0.31%, with a trading volume of 26,894 lots and an open interest of 157,842 lots.

This week, Hong Kong stocks generally maintained their strong momentum, with the weekly performances of the three major indices varying. By the close of trading, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) had risen by 1.10% week-on-week to close at 23,601.26 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index had fallen by 0.65% week-on-week to close at 5,246.87 points; and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) had risen by 1.36% week-on-week to close at 8,583.86 points. Note: Weekly performance of the HSI since the beginning of the year Notably, the HSI has achieved seven consecutive weeks of gains. Medium and long-term optimism becomes consensus among institutions Huatai Securities pointed out that despite uncertainties surrounding tariff issues and potential short-term disruptions due to high US Treasury yields, the risk premium of Hong Kong stocks has significantly pulled back, and the easing of tail risks in the economy will drive up the market's center of gravity. Morgan Stanley recently raised its target for the HSI to 24,500 points by 2026, emphasizing the valuation reshaping opportunities brought about by structural improvements in the Chinese stock market. However, CICC cautioned about short-term risks, believing that current market sentiment has recovered to a cyclical high, and the marginal effect of policy efforts may weaken. 3SBIO leads the market gains this week In the list of weekly gainers, 3SBIO (01530.HK) led the market with a weekly gain of 57.38%. The pharmaceutical company's collaboration agreement with Pfizer on a PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug set a new industry record, with an upfront payment plus milestone payments totaling up to $6 billion, creating a new benchmark for out-licensing of domestically developed innovative drugs. Another pharmaceutical stock that performed well was ImmuneOnco Biopharmaceuticals (01541.HK), which rose by over 36% week-on-week. The company recently announced clinical progress, including the successful enrollment of three patients in the Phase Ib clinical trial of its first dual-target large molecule drug for autoimmune diseases, Amurevup alpha (CD47xCD20, IMM0306), targeting neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD), with all patients receiving the drug smoothly. In addition, Alibaba Pictures surged by over 50% this week. The company recently announced its renaming to "Damai Entertainment Holdings Limited," focusing on the layout of the offline entertainment ecosystem and enhancing its brand recognition in the overall entertainment market. Subsequently, Huatai Securities and Citi raised their target prices to HK$0.75 and HK$0.92, respectively. Both Datang Gold and Lingbao Gold benefited from the trend of international gold prices, rising by 28.13% and 27.44%, respectively. In terms of news, COMEX gold continued to strengthen after breaking through $3,300 this week and is currently trading near $3,353. Technical pullback and signs of capital rotation emerge in the market on Friday Despite maintaining the recent upward trend overall this week, today's performance was not ideal. By the close of trading on Friday, the HSI had risen by 0.24%, the Hang Seng Tech Index had fallen by 0.09%, and the HSCEI had risen by 0.31%. The futures market showed significant divergence, with the pharmaceutical and gold sectors bucking the trend to strengthen, while the real estate sector was weighed down by development and investment data, and tea beverage stocks saw a correction as investors took profits. Pharmaceutical stocks were boosted by multiple positive factors. By the close of trading, Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK), Luye Pharma (02186.HK), and Innovent Biologics (01801.HK) had risen by 25.20%, 5.74%, and 4.18%, respectively. Note: Performance of pharmaceutical stocks In terms of news, pharmaceutical stocks have recently been receiving a series of positive developments, including the aforementioned agreement between Pfizer and 3SBio, as well as the strong debut performance of Hengrui Medicine on its first day of trading in Hong Kong. Zhongtai Securities stated that since 2024, despite monthly fluctuations in overseas CPI data, there is an expectation of a gradual shift towards interest rate cuts, with an anticipated improvement in investment and financing conditions. It is expected that integrated CRO/CDMO companies primarily reliant on overseas revenue, as well as domestic preclinical CRO companies, will see opportunities for valuation recovery. The first-day performance of Hengrui Medicine's H shares attracted significant market attention, with the stock surging over 30% during intraday trading. The company received over 450 times oversubscription during its IPO phase, highlighting the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies as international institutions scrambled to acquire shares. The safe-haven attribute of the gold sector became prominent. By the close of trading, Lingbao Gold (03330.HK), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK), and Zijin Mining (01815.HK) had risen by 9.16%, 3.28%, and 2.63%, respectively. Note: Performance of gold stocks On the news front, spot gold prices continued to rise, currently standing above $3,350 per ounce. CITIC Futures pointed out that the passage of Trump's "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" through the House of Representatives has increased the likelihood of large-scale tax cuts being implemented, with expectations rising for a continued climb in the US deficit rate. This aligns with Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, as the disorderly expansion of debt leads to a gradual contraction in the US dollar's creditworthiness, providing solid support for the medium and long-term bullish outlook on gold. Louise Street, Senior Market Analyst at the World Gold Council, stated that the macroeconomic situation remains difficult to predict, and this uncertainty may bring further upside potential to gold prices. As the turbulent situation persists, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset from institutional, individual, and official sectors may further increase in the coming months. Real estate stocks were weighed down by development and investment data. By the close of trading, Yuexiu Property (00123.HK), Ronshine China (03301.HK), and China Vanke (02202.HK) had fallen by 2.68%, 1.44%, and 0.79%, respectively. Note: Performance of real estate stocks In terms of news, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that from January to April, national real estate development investment reached 2,773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%. Among this, residential investment was 2,117.9 billion yuan, down 9.6%. From January to April, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing reached 282.62 million m², down 2.8% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the January-March period. Tea beverage stocks weakened slightly By the close, Cha Panda (02555.HK), Tenfu (06868.HK), and Mixue Group (02097.HK) fell by 4.19%, 4.09%, and 1.40%, respectively. Note: Performance of tea beverage stocks In terms of news, most tea beverage stocks, including Cha Panda, weakened, which was related to profit-taking by some investors. Taking Mixue Group as an example, since its listing, the company's shares have risen by over 150% in total. Stocks with abnormal movements NetEase Cloud Music rises over 5%, with Q1 gross profit up nearly 14% QoQ NetEase Cloud Music (09899.HK) rose by 5.32% to close at HKD 217.60. In terms of news, NetEase Cloud Music's net revenue for the first quarter of this year was RMB 1.858 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 683 million, corresponding to a gross profit margin of 36.7%. Bilibili rises over 4%, with Q1 results exceeding expectations Bilibili-W (09626.HK) rose by 4.35% to close at HKD 146.40. CMB International released a research report stating that Bilibili announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with total revenue increasing by 24% YoY to RMB 7 billion, in line with market consensus expectations. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 362 million, turning around from a net loss of RMB 456 million in the first quarter of 2024 and exceeding market expectations of RMB 248 million. For the second quarter of this year, CMB International expects Bilibili to maintain a 20% YoY revenue growth rate. Meanwhile, benefiting from the strong momentum of its advertising and mobile gaming businesses, its profit margin will further expand.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US Dollar Weakens, Copper Prices Hold Up Well] On May 22, spot prices of SMM #1 copper cathode against the 2506 contract for the current month were reported at a premium of 110-160 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 135 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt MoM. Today is Friday, and currently, low-priced supplies have been largely purchased, with a significant reduction in warrants. However, warehouse inventory has not decreased as expected. It is anticipated that the center of the premium will still struggle to rebound significantly today...

[SMM Weekly Aluminum Price Review: Bullish and bearish factors intertwine, direction remains unclear; SHFE aluminum to maintain rangebound fluctuations in the short term]

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis SMM, May 22: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,155 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,265 yuan/mt, a low of 20,100 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,210 yuan/mt, up 0.2%. Trading volume was 120,000 lots, and open interest was 203,000 lots. SMM Commentary: On the macro side, the US dollar index extended its decline from the previous two trading sessions overnight, weighed down by disputes over US tax cuts and spending bills, as well as weak demand for the 20-year US Treasury bond auction. Market concerns about rising US debt and a weakening economic outlook intensified, leading to increased risk aversion. On the fundamentals side, there were relatively small changes in the short-term supply side. On the cost side, the specific impact of the Guinea incident on local bauxite supply remains to be assessed, and it may provide short-term sentiment-based cost support for alumina. On the demand side, it faces dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties, and the operating rate of short-term aluminum processing enterprises will be under pressure. Overall, the current low inventory provides support for aluminum prices, but macro headwinds and off-season pressure on the demand side limit upside room. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain range-bound, with attention to domestic and overseas demand performance as well as bauxite supply conditions. Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 3,230 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,272 yuan/mt, a low of 3,206 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,216 yuan/mt, up 1.01%. Trading volume was 1.48 million lots, and open interest was 373,000 lots. SMM Commentary: Last week, maintenance and production cuts were concentrated among alumina enterprises in south China, with operating capacity decreasing by 2.9 million mt/year on a WoW basis, and spot cargo availability tightened again. In addition, alumina enterprises have been facing losses in recent months, with a strong intention to refuse to budge on prices. Coupled with maintenance and production cuts, spot cargo availability tightened, and spot transaction prices continued to rebound. Last Friday, due to the revocation of mining rights for some enterprises in Guinea, some currently operating enterprises received notices of production halts. Some miners declared force majeure to shipping companies this Monday. On Tuesday evening, in the order read by the Guinean authorities, the revoked mining rights were placed in strategic reserve areas. The specific impact of this incident on Guinea's bauxite supply remains to be assessed, and it may provide short-term sentiment-based support for bauxite prices, thereby providing cost support for alumina. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in the operating capacity of alumina refineries, as well as the shipment volume of Guinea bauxite at the raw material end and the dynamics of related enterprises. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research and decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Pressures Combined with Off-Season Demand Lead to Overnight Aluminum Price Decline] Macro perspective, dragged down by the US Fed's cautious stance on the economy, the US dollar fell again on Tuesday. Domestically, signals of monetary policy easing were released, improving market expectations and stimulating economic growth and investment and consumption demand. Fundamentals side, there were relatively small changes in the short-term supply side. Cost side, the specific impact of the Guinea incident on local bauxite supply remains to be assessed, and in the short term, it may provide sentiment-based cost support for alumina. The demand side is facing dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties, making significant short-term growth difficult. Overall, positive macro factors and low inventory provide support for aluminum prices, but the off-season pressure on the demand side limits upside room. In the short term, attention should be paid to the performance of domestic and overseas demand, as well as the supply situation of bauxite.

As trade conflicts between the US and the UK, as well as China, have eased somewhat, Wall Street investors' concerns about Trump's tariffs have diminished recently, with US stocks rising for five consecutive days last week and approaching record highs again. However, just as one wave subsides, another arises. This week, a new obstacle has emerged for US stock investors—this time, it's not about tariffs, but about the US debt outlook. Moody's Downgrades US Credit Rating On Friday evening last week, US Eastern Time, Moody's Investors Service announced that it had downgraded the US government's top credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, blaming successive US presidents and members of Congress for the ballooning budget deficit. Moody's stated that there are few signs of the US budget deficit shrinking. As a result, on Monday morning this week, medium and long-term US Treasuries, US stock index futures, and the US dollar all fell, reflecting investors' growing concerns about the US economic outlook. Currently, the US Congress is discussing more unfunded tax cuts. However, since US President Trump took office, he has been wielding the "tariff stick" indiscriminately and attempting to overturn the long-standing commercial partnerships the US has established with European countries and Canada, making the US economic outlook appear increasingly bleak. On Monday this week, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries, after climbing at the end of last Friday, remained largely around 4.5%, reaching 4.515% as of press time, up 7.6 basis points. The yield on 30-year Treasuries rose by 10 basis points, pushing it above 5% to its highest level since November 2023 and close to its historical peak in mid-2007. As of press time, the S&P 500 futures were down 1.08%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.35%. US Asset Attractiveness May Weaken Max Gokhman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, said, "Given the accelerating pace of unfunded fiscal relief measures, it's not surprising that the US Treasury rating has been downgraded." "(The US') debt servicing costs will continue to climb as major investors (including sovereign and institutional investors) gradually shift from US Treasuries to other safe-haven assets... Unfortunately, this could trigger a steeper bearish spiral in US Treasury yields, exert further downward pressure on the US dollar, and reduce the attractiveness of the US stock market." In an earlier report, Wells Fargo strategists Michael Schumacher and Angelo Manolatos told clients that they expected "10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields to rise by an additional 5-10 basis points due to Moody's downgrade." Although a rise in government bond yields typically boosts a country's currency, for the current US, market concerns about US debt may exacerbate doubts about the US dollar. Currently, the US dollar index has seen a slight decline in the morning session, currently standing at 100.85, down 0.24%. Meanwhile, media data shows that the sentiment among options traders has reached its most pessimistic level in five years. In a report to clients, Subadra Rajappa, a strategist at Société Générale, wrote, "Higher long-term bond yields will increase the (US) government's net interest costs and deficit... In the long run, the erosion of the safe-haven status of US Treasuries will affect the US dollar and foreign demand for US Treasuries and other US assets."

On Tuesday (May 13), the three major US stock indices had mixed changes, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) declining while the S&P 500 recouped all its losses for the year. By the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.72% to close at 5,886.55, its highest level since early March. Its year-to-date (YTD) change turned positive, now up 0.08%, after having fallen more than 17% earlier this year. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.61% to close at 19,010.08, its first close above 19,000 since February 26. The DJIA fell 0.64% to close at 42,140.43, dragged down by a 17.79% plunge in UnitedHealth Group, one of its components. Before the market opened, UnitedHealth announced it would suspend its 2025 outlook, and its CEO, Andrew Witty, stepped down immediately for personal reasons. The day before, high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US reached important consensus and made substantive progress, directly reflected in a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels. This development was highly praised by the international community, and financial markets also responded positively, with all three major US stock indices rising collectively on Monday. On Tuesday, a meeting between US President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman further boosted the stock market. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced at the Saudi-US Investment Forum that Nvidia would sell over 18,000 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to Saudi company Humain. After that, Trump was also set to head to Qatar and the UAE. During the trading day, news emerged that the Trump administration was considering an agreement that would allow the UAE to import over 1 million advanced Nvidia chips, far exceeding the restrictions set by the Biden administration's AI chip export rules. Influenced by these developments, Nvidia surged 5.63% in a single day, closing at its highest level since February 27. Shares of other chipmakers also strengthened, with Broadcom rising 4.89% and AMD up 4.01%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.15%, narrowing its YTD decline to less than 1%. In addition to the positive news on chips, the latest US CPI data also boosted the market. Data released before the market opened by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the CPI rose 2.3% YoY in April, and the core index rose 2.8% YoY, both the lowest since early 2021. During the trading day, Trump posted on Truth Social, saying, "There is no more inflation! Prices for gasoline, energy, groceries, and almost everything else are falling!!! The US Fed must cut interest rates. What's going on with 'Mr. Delay' Powell?" Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said, "Trade news, combined with Saudi Arabia's massive chip deal and the prospect of falling inflation, could prompt the US Fed to advance the timing of an interest rate cut. Add to that the substantive details of tax cuts, and market risk sentiment is heating up across the board." Performance of Popular Stocks Most large-cap tech stocks rose, with (ranked by market capitalization) Microsoft down 0.03%, Apple up 1.02%, Nvidia up 5.63%, Amazon up 1.31%, Google C up 0.82%, Meta up 2.6%, and Broadcom up 4.89%. Tesla surged 4.93%, closing at its highest level since February 24. The solar panel sector and cryptocurrency-related stocks led the gains. Coinbase soared 23.97% after being added to the S&P 500 Index. Among Chinese ADRs, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.07%. Popular Chinese ADRs had mixed performances, with Amer Sports up 3.86%, JD.com up 3.33%, Pinduoduo up 2.64%, and Tencent Music up 2.51%. Chagee fell 10.88%, GDS Holdings dropped 6.14%, TAL Education Group declined 2.34%, NIO fell 1.9%, XPeng Motors dropped 1.66%, Li Auto declined 1.48%, New Oriental Education & Technology Group fell 0.94%, Alibaba Group Holding fell 0.68%, and Baidu fell 0.2%. Company News [US Considering Allowing UAE to Purchase Over 1 Million Advanced Nvidia Chips] According to sources familiar with the matter, the Trump administration is considering a deal that would allow the UAE to import over 1 million advanced Nvidia chips, far exceeding the limits set by AI chip regulations during the Biden era. The sources said the agreement is still under negotiation and could change. From now until 2027, the UAE will be allowed to import 500,000 of the most advanced chips on the market each year. One-fifth of these will be reserved for Abu Dhabi-based AI company G42, with the remainder going to US companies building data centers in the UAE. [OpenAI Considering Building Data Center in UAE, Potential Announcement During Trump's Middle East Trip] OpenAI is considering building a new data center in the UAE, a move that could significantly expand its presence in the Middle East. The agreement has not yet been finalised and could still change, with an announcement potentially coming as early as this week during US President Trump's visit to the Middle East. Trump is scheduled to visit the UAE on Thursday. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is also currently visiting the region as part of a collective trip by tech leaders. According to sources familiar with the matter, it is currently unclear how much data center capacity OpenAI plans to build in the UAE. The success or failure of this project largely depends on whether OpenAI can successfully import Nvidia's cutting-edge chips for developing and training AI models. Since 2023, the US has been restricting the sale of such chips to the UAE. However, according to media reports, Trump administration officials are on the verge of reaching an agreement to ease access for this Gulf country. [AMD and Saudi AI firm Humain reach a strategic cooperation worth $10 billion] AMD has reached a strategic cooperation worth $10 billion with Saudi AI firm Humain to advance global AI. Under the agreement, the two parties will invest up to $10 billion to deploy 500 megawatts (MW) of AI computing power over the next five years. [Tesla's Robotaxi safety under US regulatory investigation, with FSD system in focus] US regulators are intensifying their scrutiny of Tesla's Robotaxi plan. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has sent a list of questions to the company as part of its ongoing investigation into Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. The agency wants to understand how the FSD system performs in adverse conditions such as fog, rain, or bright sunlight, and has inquired about Tesla's plans to safely test Robotaxi on public roads. This investigation began in October 2024, following four accidents involving the FSD system in low-visibility environments. Currently, Tesla's FSD still requires drivers to remain alert and keep their hands on the wheel. However, CEO Elon Musk has stated that the upcoming Robotaxi version will achieve fully unsupervised driving. Regulators hope to confirm whether the new system is the same as the existing road version, and have also inquired about the number of vehicles, areas of use, and Tesla's safety verification methods. [GM and LG Energy Solution collaborate to develop new-type LMR prismatic batteries] General Motors (GM) has announced that it, together with LG Energy Solution, will commercialize lithium-rich manganese-based (LMR) prismatic battery cells for future GM electric trucks and full-size SUVs through a new battery technology breakthrough. GM aims to become the first automaker to deploy LMR batteries in EVs. Ultium Cells, a joint venture between GM and LG Energy Solution, plans to commence commercial production of LMR prismatic battery cells in the US by 2028, with pilot production expected to take place at LG Energy Solution's factory by the end of 2027. According to reports, battery engineers from GM and LG Energy Solution have developed a new-type LMR prismatic battery cell that achieves a 33% increase in energy density compared to the best-performing lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cells, while maintaining similar costs.