[Multiple Bearish Factors Stall the Uptrend; China’s Tantalum Market Undergoes Short-Term Adjustment While Medium and Long-Term Support Remains Solid] Recently, the sustained upward momentum in China’s tantalum products market came to a halt, with the overall market entering a phase of temporary consolidation and adjustment. Upward momentum slowed markedly in the short term, mainly due to three core factors: the transmission of macro sentiment, changes in circulating supply, and weakening raw material costs.

Russia’s Solikamsk Magnesium Works recently launched industrialised production of magnesium alloys containing rare earth elements such as neodymium, cerium, and lanthanum. The products combine lightweight properties with high strength and are mainly targeted at sectors including aerospace and automotive manufacturing. The plant accounts for 100% of Russia’s rare earth compound production and 75% of its magnesium capacity, and this capacity expansion further consolidates its position in the strategic metals sector. Meanwhile, the “magnesium-based hydrogen slurry” technology developed by Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute has sparked controversy. Independent analysis indicated that the technology’s overall system efficiency is only about 10, its energy density is comparable to that of lithium batteries, its cost is far higher than expectations, and its recycling chain has yet to form a closed loop. It is only suitable for demonstration scenarios at the hundred-watt level and is unlikely to achieve commercial application. The two pieces of news reflect the different technological pathways and industrialisation prospects of magnesium-based materials in high-end manufacturing and energy storage.

Recently, the domestic tantalum market, driven by a significant rise in raw material costs, has shown an overall upward trend. Although the pace of price increases for tantalum ingots has lagged slightly, the medium-term upward logic remains clear. Tantalum ore prices have experienced a substantial increase, with the CIF China price quoted at $160–165 per pound, up 17.32% from pre-holiday quotes. This rise is primarily driven by two factors. On one hand, landslides and production halts at core mining areas have directly led to a tangible contraction in global supply, rapidly tightening the availability of spot cargo. On the other hand, downstream electronics manufacturers and traders, driven by bullish sentiment, have engaged in concentrated stockpiling and price locking, further exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch in the circulation chain and collectively pushing up transaction prices for ore. Boosted by strong raw material performance, tantalum product quotes have gradually risen. Transactions for 99.5% tantalum oxide have reached 3,900 yuan/kg, with manufacturers raising prices slightly MoM from pre-holiday levels. For 99.95% tantalum ingot, transactions have occurred at 5,500 yuan/kg, while some manufacturers quote 6,000 yuan/kg, showing minimal increase from pre-holiday quotes. Specifically, some traders are offloading tantalum ingots, creating interference in the upward movement of spot prices and causing a temporary lack of momentum for ingot price hikes. However, with strong cost support from the sharp rise in tantalum ore, downstream procurement demand is expected to be released quickly. Short-term disruptions are unlikely to alter the medium-term upward trend, and tantalum ingot quotes are anticipated to soon catch up with the increases, maintaining the overall strong performance of the tantalum market.

[Supply Contraction Drives Up Tantalum Ore Prices, Smelting End Price Increases Temporarily Hindered] Recently, tantalum ore prices have surged significantly due to mine collapses, overseas recovery, and stockpiling with price locking, with the China landed price reaching $160–165 per pound, indicating strong cost support. Tantalum oxide transactions are smooth at 3,900 yuan per kg, with offers following suit. Although tantalum ingots have traded at 5,500 yuan per kg and some manufacturers offer 6,000 yuan per kg, upward momentum is temporarily insufficient due to trader sell-offs. Short-term disruptions do not alter the medium-term upward trend, and tantalum ingots are expected to catch up quickly.

Andrada Mining Limited has announced that the first phase of drilling at its Lithium Ridge project in Namibia has yielded high-grade lithium intercepts, confirming the continuity, depth extension, and polymetallic potential of the lithium mineralisation. Initial drill holes indicate lithium mineralisation from the surface down to 160 meters, accompanied by tin and tantalum mineralisation. Key high-grade intercepts include 9.63 meters at 2.12% Li₂O in drill hole LRD003 (including 5.74 meters at 3.02% Li₂O), 24.44 meters at 1.38% Li₂O in LRD010, and 16.81 meters at 1.51% Li₂O in LRD011, with lithium mineralisation present in most of the reported holes.

From January 28 to 29, 2026, the Rubaya coltan mining area in North Kivu Province, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was hit by massive landslides triggered by persistent heavy rainfall. The disaster caused the collapse of multiple artisanal mining tunnels. All mining operations at the affected mining area have been fully suspended, and nearby residents have completed emergency evacuation.

More than 200 people were killed this week in a collapse at the Rubaya coltan mine in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Lumumba Kambere Muyisa, spokesperson for the rebel-appointed governor of the province where the mine is located, told Reuters on Friday.

At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference - 2025 Southeast Asia Tin Industry Conference, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), supported by the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs as a government supporter, and co-organized by the Association of Indonesia Nickel Miners (APNI), the Jakarta Futures Exchange, and China Coal Resource, Mamoko Egyul, a smelting expert from the Coordination and Technical Department for Mining Planning (CTCPM) of the DRC Ministry of Mines, delivered a presentation on the current status and development prospects of the African tin ore market, using the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) as a case study. He introduced the geographical location and administrative situation of the DRC. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is abbreviated as DRC. Geology and Mineralogy ► Geology He elaborated on the types of tin deposits worldwide: Notable tin deposits in Africa include: Pegmatite-type deposits: Manono (DRC), Bikita (Zimbabwe), and Uis (Namibia); Vein-type deposits: Jos (Nigeria); ► Placer deposits: Maniema Province, North Kivu Province (Bisié), and South Kivu Province (DRC). In placer deposits, cassiterite is concentrated through gravitational forces, often accompanied by tungsten ore (wolframite) and other common heavy minerals (tantalite). ► Mineralogy Tin primarily exists in nature as **cassiterite (SnO₂)**. Other minerals are of lower economic significance, ranked as follows: Cassiterite (SnO₂): 78.7% tin content; Teallite (PbSnS₂): 30%; Stannite (Cu₂FeSnS₄): 27.6%; Cylindrite (Pb₃Sn₄Sb₂S₁₄): 24.8%, etc. Tin Industry and Its By-products Currently known mineral resources: 80 million mt of cassiterite, 30 million mt of tantalum-niobium ore, and 4 million mt of tungsten ore. 2024 Production: 43,000 mt of cassiterite, 2,900 mt of tantalum-niobium ore, and 337 mt of tungsten ore. 2024 DRC Mineral Statistics 2024 Industrial Exports of Tin Ore (mt) He also elaborated on the 2024 artisanal cassiterite exports by province in the DRC, the 2024 artisanal tin concentrate exports by province in the DRC, the total 2024 cassiterite exports, the total 2024 artisanal tantalum-niobium ore exports, the distribution of 2024 artisanal tantalum-niobium ore exports, the 2024 tungsten ore exports, and the 2024 artisanal tungsten ore exports. Changes in Tin Ore Exports from 2020 to 2024 (mt) Changes in Tantalum-Niobium Ore Exports from 2020 to 2024 (mt) Changes in Tungsten Ore Exports from 2020 to 2024 (mt) Legal and Regulatory Framework for the Mining Industry in the DRC The mining industry in the DRC is governed by the Mining Code and the Mining Regulations. This framework is attractive and incentivizing, with the following characteristics in particular: Favorable tax, customs, and foreign exchange regimes; swift, transparent, and objective procedures for granting mining and/or quarrying rights; Consideration of issues related to environmental protection and the well-being of communities surrounding mining projects; Alignment with international standards for transparency and accountability. Development and Prospects of Tin in the DRC Currently, the DRC exports tin in the form of concentrate or intermediate products. This situation is not conducive to maximizing mining revenues and enhancing the added value of marketable mineral products in the country. Therefore, CTCPM (Congo Technical Center for Mineral Research and Planning), the research, design, and planning institution for mining activities in the DRC, proposes the following actions for the future: • Sign a memorandum of cooperation with SMM on matters such as the use of SMM prices; • Promote partnerships between the state-owned company SAKIMA and leading global tin ore mining enterprises; • Conduct capacity-building training for CTCPM officials on the entire process of the tin industry chain. Conclusion Indeed, the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is currently facing an unjust war due to its abundant mineral resources. Currently, discussions are underway on how to help restore stability in the eastern part of the DRC. 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference

Recently, International Resources Holding (IRH), an Abu Dhabi-based international resources holding company, decided to acquire a majority stake in a large tin mine located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), further expanding its investment portfolio in critical mineral resources. It is reported that IRH acquired approximately 56% of Alphamin Resources from a subsidiary of Denham Capital, a US private equity fund, for CAD 503 million (approximately US$367 million). Alphamin, listed in Canada, owns the large Bisie tin mine in eastern DRC. In addition to tin, the mine is rich in critical minerals such as tantalum, tungsten, and coltan. The Bisie tin mine officially commenced production in 2019, with two major pits: Mpama North and Mpama South. In 2024, its production exceeded 17,000 mt, accounting for approximately 6% of global tin production. The mine temporarily suspended operations in March this year, causing a brief spike in global tin prices, but has since resumed production. IRH is a subsidiary of International Holding Company (IHC), an international holding company led by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE's National Security Advisor and a member of the Abu Dhabi royal family, focusing on mining exploration and investment. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan is the brother of UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and manages a US$1.5 trillion business empire. In addition to IHC, he also serves as the Chairman of sovereign funds Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), the Chairman of G42, the largest AI company in the Middle East, the Chairman of private investment company Royal Group, and the Chairman of First Abu Dhabi Bank. In 2023, IRH invested US$1.1 billion to acquire the Mopani copper mine in Zambia, officially entering the African mining market. Since then, IRH has continued to seek acquisition opportunities for critical minerals in Africa. Tin, as an important metal resource, is widely used in the chemical, electronics, metallurgical, and new energy industries, among others. Against the backdrop of the global energy transition, major oil-producing countries in the Gulf, including the UAE, are actively promoting economic diversification strategies, with a particular focus on the layout of critical metal resources to secure a favorable position in the global energy transition.

SMM News on May 14: Today, driven by positive policy developments, the main lithium carbonate futures contract fluctuated upward after opening, surging over 3% during the session. By the close of the daytime session, the main contract closed up 3% at 65,200 yuan/mt, up 2,640 yuan/mt from the low of 62,560 yuan/mt set during the session on May 12, representing a 4.22% increase. In terms of spot prices, according to SMM's spot quotes, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate also rose slightly by 100 yuan/mt today, trading at 63,600-65,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 64,700 yuan/mt. 》Click to view SMM's spot quotes for new energy products Regarding the reasons for the rise in lithium carbonate futures prices, SMM believes it is mainly related to positive policy news. On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce website released a joint statement on the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks, announcing that the US's 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese products would be suspended for the initial 90 days. According to the latest news today, this tariff adjustment has been temporarily implemented. SMM understands that, overall, due to exemptions for NEVs and their parts before and after this reciprocal tariff adjustment, the change in reciprocal tariffs will have a greater impact on the export of ESS batteries, potentially prompting an anticipated rush in exports of Chinese ESS battery cells, thereby driving up the demand for lithium carbonate. Starting from May 14, the tariff on new energy end-use products exported from China to the US is as follows: SMM predicts that, given the installation rush demand for ESS storage mentioned in China's Document No. 136 regarding the "May 31" grid connection deadline, the ESS battery cells produced in May may not be able to meet the installation rush demand in time this month. Therefore, the market previously expected that the production volume of ESS battery cells in May might decrease by 5-10% MoM compared to April. However, influenced by the golden export window period brought about by the change in US tariffs, and considering that it takes approximately one month for transportation and customs clearance from China to the US, it is expected that the production schedule of ESS battery cells for top-tier enterprises will remain at a high level in May and June, and the growth rate of ESS battery cell production is expected to turn from negative to positive MoM. 》Click to view details Returning to the supply and demand dynamics of the lithium carbonate market, lithium carbonate prices are currently hovering near recent lows. Under the pressure of cost losses, upstream lithium chemical plants have shown a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Currently, there is only a certain level of trading activity between traders and downstream enterprises. The positive expectations for an increase in end-use demand driven by the aforementioned policy developments may, to a certain extent, drive a rebound in lithium carbonate prices. However, it should also be noted that although lithium carbonate inventory levels have slightly decreased after the Labour Day holiday, the current cumulative inventory level of lithium carbonate remains high. Moreover, ore prices continue to hit new lows, and cost support is continuously weakening. Therefore, the overall price of lithium carbonate will continue to exhibit a fluctuating trend at lows. As the futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate rose together, the shares of energy metal companies, including Tengyuan Cobalt, Huayou Cobalt, YOUNGY, Zhongkuang Resources, Weiling Co., Ltd., and Tianqi Lithium, also "rose", with multiple stocks increasing by over 1%. Dazhong Mining also responded today on the investor interaction platform regarding the progress of the lithium mine tunnel in Hunan. The company stated that as of now, the lithium mine tunnel in Hunan has been completed, laying a certain foundation for the early commissioning of mining and beneficiation operations. According to the "Lithium Exploration Report of the Tongtianmiao Ore Block in the Jijiaoshan Mining Area, Linwu County, Hunan Province" reviewed and filed by the company for its resource reserves, the associated minerals of the Jijiaoshan lithium mine in Hunan include metals such as rubidium, niobium, tantalum, tin, and tungsten. Institutional Comments Xinhu Futures commented that there are no significant positive factors in the short-term fundamentals, making it difficult for lithium prices to reverse their trend. However, at the current price level, it is necessary to be cautious about the rising expectations of supply-side disruptions and the capital-driven nature of low valuations. Given the relatively high channel inventory levels across the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, this will also limit the rebound space for lithium prices. Yide Futures stated that, on the supply side, the CIF price of Australian ore has fallen to $687.5/mt, while the price of African ore has remained stable at $637/mt. Port lithium ore inventory has increased, and the planned production of lithium carbonate nationwide for May has increased MoM, with the latest weekly production data showing a significant increase. On the demand side, the planned production of cathode materials, including ternary materials and LFP, has increased MoM. Based on the current production schedule, the supply and demand fundamentals still maintain a surplus pattern. In terms of inventory, the latest weekly inventory has decreased by 464 mt. Specifically, the significant increase in smelter production has not yet been transferred downstream or to traders, leading to a noticeable increase in their inventory, while the inventory of downstream traders has decreased. In the short term, the combination of front-loaded consumption and collapsing costs has led to a significant pullback in lithium carbonate prices. From a long-term industry perspective, the market requires a more thorough exit of the resource side. SDIC Futures stated that the total market inventory has decreased by 500 mt to 132,000 mt, with downstream inventory decreasing by 3,000 mt to 42,000 mt and smelter inventory increasing by 3,800 mt to 55,000 mt. The intermediate links are actively destocking. In terms of inventory structure, there is a weak willingness for downstream restocking, while passive restocking has occurred upstream, reflecting differences in market sentiment. The latest quote for Australian ore is $700, with a decline of over 15% in the past month, basically reflecting a downward shift in the price center. The midstream production has recovered rapidly, with a 28% increase in production MoM in the first week after the holiday, and an improvement in supply and demand still needs to be awaited. The futures price of lithium carbonate is in a downward channel, and short positions are being maintained.