SMM News, March 31: Today, in Guangdong, spot premiums for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at 140 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; 50 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, up 10 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 10 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, up 10 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 95,780 yuan/mt, up 555 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 95,675 yuan/mt, also up 555 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory continued its downward trend and has now declined for 11 consecutive working days. As a result, suppliers remained firmly bullish and continued to hold prices firm for shipments, but restocking interest from traders and end-user enterprises was weak at month-end, and market trading was expected to recover tomorrow. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.38, down 0.13 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.43, down 0.2 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, market trading was sluggish at month-end, but spot premiums remained firm.

SMM Nickel News, March 31: Macro and market news: (1) The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on further implementing the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China. The notice mentioned comprehensively addressing "involution-style" competition. It said various anti-unfair competition measures would be used in a coordinated manner to focus on preventing and curbing "involution-style" competition in key industries and sectors such as the platform economy, PV, lithium battery, and NEV. (2) Iran's parliamentary National Security Commission passed a bill proposing to charge fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The plan included implementing financial arrangements and a charging system in Iranian rial, and banning US and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Spot market: On March 31, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price premium of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 3,750 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the spot premiums for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel were in the range of -800-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) continued to decline in early trading and closed the morning session at 134,370 yuan/mt, down 1.13%. Supply side, tightening in nickel ore has evolved into dual cost support from "ore + taxes," providing solid support for the bottom of nickel prices, but weak end-use demand and continued inventory accumulation still capped upside room for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at discounts of 120–60 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average price down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price up 385 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 95,565 yuan/mt.

[Supply Tightening Coupled With Macro Tailwinds Keeps Aluminum Prices Firmly at High Levels] Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, together with support from expectations of gradually releasing peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,223/mt. In early trading, it saw wide swings and climbed to $12,278/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of $12,153.5/mt, before fluctuating widely again and finally closing at $12,195/mt, up 0.44. Trading volume reached 15,300 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots, down 454 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 96,100 yuan/mt and hit a high of 96,240 yuan/mt in early trading. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower to 95,210 yuan/mt, before fluctuating rangebound and finally closing at 95,350 yuan/mt, down 0.05. Trading volume reached 36,500 lots, and open interest stood at 183,000 lots, down 2,394 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Factors and Fundamentals Present Both Bullish and Bearish Signals, and Lead Prices May Continue to Consolidate in the Short Term] Fed Chairman Powell released dovish signals, and the market once again bet on the possibility of an interest rate cut within the year. Recently, production at primary lead and secondary lead smelters has resumed, supply has been relatively ample, and imported lead has continued to flow into China...

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: In March, the Secondary Aluminum Industry PMI Rebounded Sharply Into Expansion Territory, and Downward Pressure Remained in April] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2605 contract price first fell and then rose, showing an overall fluctuating upward trend. After the opening, the price quickly dipped to an intraday low of 23,320 yuan/mt, then gradually stabilized and rebounded, fluctuating upward to a high of 23,610 yuan/mt. It pulled back slightly late in the session and finally closed at 23,585 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.19%.

Nouveau Monde Graphite (NMG) has signed a revised binding term sheet with the Canadian Government to supply 30,000 tonnes per annum of flake graphite concentrate from its Phase 2 Matawinie Mine in Québec over seven years. The take-or-pay agreement features a fixed price with inflation adjustments and allows NMG to resell volumes, splitting upside revenue with Canada. Bolstered by a $335 million debt commitment from Canadian agencies and existing offtake deals covering over 70% of planned production, this agreement marks a crucial step toward finalizing transaction agreements and reaching a positive final investment decision (FID).

[SMM Analysis]Aluminum Processing PMI Rebounded Sharply to 66 in March, Expected to Pull Back in April

As semiconductor demand surged, JX Advanced Metals Corporation, Japan’s semiconductor materials giant (JX Advanced Metals Corp., hereinafter referred to as JX Advanced Metals), plans to increase investment in chip and information technology materials. President Yoichi Hayashi said the company plans to invest about 100 billion yen ($623 million) annually across all business divisions, with a focus on chip-related businesses. Over the past three years, the company invested an average of 90 billion yen per year. JX Advanced Metals is one of the beneficiaries of the rapid buildout of AI data centers, and its clients include global chipmakers such as TSMC, SK Hynix, and Intel. This has prompted the company to shift from its traditional copper smelting business to chip and information technology materials. In an interview, Hayashi said, “I do not think we should blindly expand investment, but it would be a serious mistake to hesitate when there are clear opportunities. I believe now is the time for us to take certain risks.” As demand exceeded expectations, JX Advanced Metals raised its operating profit forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31 by 20. Sales of indium phosphide, a semiconductor material produced by the company, were strong, and the company said it will make additional investment to expand capacity. Hayashi said that, given tight supply and demand, the company was negotiating with clients to raise product prices. He added that the magnitude of the price increases varied by product, but did not disclose specific details. He believes the war in the Middle East will not have a significant impact on the company’s operations, but is monitoring developments closely. JX aims to achieve operating profit of 200 billion yen in growth segments, including its chip materials business, by the fiscal year ending March 2040. Operating profit for the most recent fiscal year was about 52 billion yen. (Wenhua Composite)