Silver prices have broken through and stabilized above the key level of $35 per ounce in the past two weeks, giving analysts strong bullish confidence. Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, said that the silver market is euphoric as prices have broken through the $35-per-ounce level, a level that has been difficult to breach in the past few years. The last time silver prices surpassed this level, they reached nearly $50 per ounce within six weeks, so excitement in the market is now heating up. David Erfle, founder of Junior Miner Junky, also believes that silver's weekly break above $35 marks a technical breakthrough for silver prices, and that silver prices are fluctuating very rapidly, with significant volatility expected. If silver prices close above $37.5 this month, they could further break through to $40 and challenge the historical high of $50 by the end of the year. As of press time, the London silver spot price was around $36.35 per ounce. Reasons for Optimism on Silver Prices Ghali pointed out that the significant rise in silver prices is somewhat related to inventory imbalances in major trading centers in New York and London. This unresolved market distortion could lead to a series of mini squeezes in the market and drive silver prices to new highs in the near future. He analyzed that silver ETFs have recently attracted inflows, which are depleting the remaining inventory in the world's largest silver vault system in London. Previously, due to tariff threats from the US, a large amount of silver had flowed from London to New York. He noted that the current market structure is characterized by extremely scarce silver supply in London, with the amount of silver available for free purchase being less than the amount typically traded daily. However, the London market has not yet factored this scarcity into pricing, nor has the broader market priced in the incentives needed to return silver to actual physical trading locations. In addition, improving demand prospects are also supporting silver prices. Ghali believes that while tariffs have led many analysts to expect an economic downturn and weaken industrial demand, no signs of this have emerged so far, demonstrating the resilience of demand. News from US inflation data may also be positive for silver prices. US CPI data for May only rose slightly, well below the significant increase expected by the market due to tariffs, but it could prompt the US Fed to consider an interest rate cut in September. Once interest rates are cut, industrial demand for silver is expected to increase, and the cut will also be beneficial for the rise in precious metal prices. Erfle provided another reason, which is that silver mining stocks have already moved ahead and are leading the rise in silver prices. He said that miners usually lead the silver price rally and trigger a simultaneous increase. Before the significant rise in silver prices, the fund ETF SIL, which tracks global silver mining stocks, had reached a multi-year closing high, and some other silver mining stocks had also hit new 52-week highs recently.

For well-known institutional investors in the US bond market, such as DoubleLine Capital, there seem to be only two attitudes towards 30-year US Treasuries at present: either avoid them as much as possible or short them directly... Due to concerns about the swelling US government budget deficit and the worsening debt burden, this investment company, led by "new bond king" Gundlach, as well as other well-known fixed-income market investment institutions such as Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco) and TCW Group Inc., have adopted similar strategies: avoiding the longest-dated US government bonds and instead favouring shorter-term bonds with lower interest rate risks that still offer considerable returns. As government spending has increased globally—from Japan to the UK and then to the US—confidence in long-term bonds has been eroded. This portfolio adjustment, shifting from long-term to short-term bonds, has performed well this year. Last month, following S&P and Fitch, Moody's, the last of the world's three major rating agencies, also stripped the US of its Aaa sovereign credit rating. In fact, from the perspective of the yield curve structure of US Treasuries, the steepening of the yield curve this year has become particularly evident—the yield on 30-year US Treasuries has continued to climb sharply, while the yields on medium- and short-term Treasuries, such as 2-year and 5-year notes, have instead declined. As investors worry about the possibility of the US government issuing more bonds to cover the deficit, the yield on 30-year US Treasuries reached 5.15% last month, approaching its highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the spread between the yield on 30-year US Treasuries and that on 5-year US Treasuries rose above 100 basis points for the first time since 2021. This discrepancy is extremely rare—the last time it occurred throughout the year was in 2001, undoubtedly highlighting the pressure on long-term bonds, as investors demand additional compensation to be willing to lend to the US government for such a long period. The decline in long-term bonds has been so severe that some have even begun to speculate that the US Treasury Department may reduce or halt the auction of the longest-dated bonds. Avoiding long-term bonds, Richard McGuire, a strategist at Rabobank, said, "We can certainly see why the long end of the US Treasury curve is unpopular. The US policy outlook is too bleak to attract buyers of long-term US Treasuries." Bill Campbell, a portfolio manager at DoubleLine Capital, pointed out, " When we can short directly, we are betting on the steepening of the yield curve, expecting long-term yields to rise relative to short-term yields. In other purely long-only strategies, we are essentially staging a 'buyer's strike' and instead investing more in the middle part of the yield curve." " In fact, the US fiscal situation had already prompted Pimco to call for caution on 30-year Treasuries as early as the end of last year, and the firm still maintains an underweight position on long-term bonds. Mohit Mittal, chief investment officer of core strategies at the bond giant, said Pimco currently favours the 5-year and 10-year segments of the US Treasury yield curve and is looking at non-US bonds. "If there is a rebound in the bond market, we believe it will be led by the 5-year to 10-year segment, not long-term bonds," Mittal said. Given that the US Treasury has long sought stability in its debt auction schedule, the growing chatter on Wall Street about scaling back 30-year Treasury auctions seems unusual. Bob Michele, global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, said last week, that long-term bonds are not currently trading as the risk-free assets that Wall Street has long considered them to be, and that the possibility of scaling back or cancelling auctions is real. "I don't want to be the guy standing in front of the steamroller right now," Michele said in an interview. "I'll let others help stabilise the long end. I'm worried things will get worse before they get better." TD Securities strategists, in a report last week, forecast that the US Treasury could signal a move to scale back long-end auctions as early as in its August refinancing announcement. However, a US Treasury spokesperson recently said that auction demand for bonds of all maturities has been strong, and the government will adhere to its long-standing policy of issuing bonds in a "regular and predictable manner." In a statement on April 30, the US Treasury also pledged to keep auction sizes for long-term bonds and other maturities stable—at least for the next few quarters. Looking ahead, it is foreseeable that a key test will come on June 12, when the next 30-year Treasury auction takes place. Long-term bond auctions in major economies have recently become a significant "storm centre" for global markets. In Japan last month, long-term bond auctions showed worrying signs of weakening confidence in the country's longest-dated bonds, with demand for a 40-year Japanese government bond issue hitting its weakest level since last July, increasing pressure on officials to reduce issuance of such long-term bonds. Similarly, the auction results for 20-year US Treasuries in the US last month were also sluggish, further exacerbating concerns about demand for long-term US Treasuries.

SMM April 27 News: Metal Market: Overnight Friday, both domestic and overseas metal markets mostly declined, with only LME tin and SHFE aluminum rising, up 0.67% and 0.08% respectively. LME nickel led the losses with a 2.09% drop, followed by SHFE nickel (down 1.22%), LME zinc (down 1.56%), while other metals fell less than 1%. Alumina main contract dropped 0.42%. Ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with iron ore down 1.33% and stainless steel down 0.31%. HRC and rebar both rose over 1%, gaining 2.21% and 1.67% respectively. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.42% while coke dipped 0.25%. Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.55% overnight Friday but edged up 0.05% weekly, pressured by a stronger US dollar and weaker safe-haven demand. COMEX silver dropped 1.43% overnight but rose 1.71% weekly. Domestically, SHFE gold declined 0.77% overnight Friday but gained 0.22% weekly, while SHFE silver fell 0.93%. TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali noted that tariff tensions easing negatively impacted gold prices, but large-scale position unwinding hasn’t been observed yet. However, he added that investors continued bargain-hunting in recent sessions, suggesting gold could resume its upward trajectory. Overnight Friday closing prices as of 9:04 AM April 27: 》Click to view SMM futures dashboard Macro Front: Domestic: 【CPC Politburo Holds Meeting to Analyze Current Economic Situation and Work】 The meeting emphasized adhering to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately implementing the new development philosophy, accelerating the establishment of a new development paradigm, balancing domestic economic work and international trade struggles, resolutely managing China’s own affairs, expanding high-level opening-up, stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and responding to external uncertainties with the certainty of high-quality development. 》Click for details Xinhua Commentary published an article titled "Q1 China Economic Observation｜Implementing More Proactive Fiscal Policy Effectively". It stressed ensuring fiscal funds are deployed swiftly and effectively, optimizing expenditure structure, strengthening performance management, and directing every yuan toward critical areas of national welfare. 【Pan Gongsheng: Implementing Appropriately Accommodative Monetary Policy to Promote High-Quality Economic Growth】 Per the PBOC website, the second G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting of 2025 was held in Washington, DC on April 23-24, discussing global economic outlook, international financial architecture reform, and Africa’s development challenges. PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng attended and spoke, with Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng also present. Participants acknowledged ongoing global recovery but highlighted rising downside risks from trade tensions, tighter financing conditions, and structural challenges. Concerns were voiced over trade friction escalation, calling for enhanced dialogue, policy coordination, and multilateral trade system improvements. Support was expressed for a more stable, efficient, and resilient international financial framework, including multilateral development banks’ financing capacity. Pan stressed that economic fragmentation and trade tensions disrupt supply chains and weaken growth momentum, noting trade wars have no winners. Major economies should strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination and take concrete steps to safeguard global stability. China’s economy started 2025 well, maintaining recovery momentum with stable financial markets. The PBOC will implement appropriately accommodative monetary policy to advance high-quality growth. US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.33% overnight Friday and 0.38% weekly, marking its first weekly gain since mid-March. Contradictory signals on tariff tensions caused volatility. On Monday, Trump’s criticism of Fed Chairman Powell triggered dollar asset sell-offs, pushing it to a low near 97.92—its weakest since April 8, 2022. However, Trump’s shifting rhetoric later lifted it above 99, though resistance at 100 persisted. The Fed warned asset valuations remained elevated post-April sell-offs, with housing prices still high. Next week brings key US data and earnings. Q1 GDP, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and April jobs data may influence rate-cut decisions. Employment figures will be pivotal as the nonfarm payrolls report reveals tariff and tightening impacts on the labor market. (Wenhua Composite) Other Currencies: USD/JPY rose 0.67% to 143.555 yen, while USD/CHF gained 0.09% to 0.827 francs. EUR/USD fell 0.11% to 1.1377. Despite strong UK retail sales, GBP/USD dipped 0.1% to 1.3325. BOJ Governor Ueda stated Thursday that rate hikes would continue if underlying inflation trends toward 2%, but US tariff effects require careful assessment. GBP/USD declined 0.1% to 1.3325 despite March retail sales growing 0.4% (vs. expected -0.4%). Q1 sales rose 1.6%, the strongest in four years. MPC member Greene noted tariffs’ downward pressure on UK inflation, bolstering rate-cut bets. Markets now price in two cuts over the next three meetings and at least one more by year-end. Macro Outlook: Next week, China releases April official manufacturing PMI; the US reports ADP employment, Q1 GDP (annualized q/q), core PCE, consumer spending, Chicago PMI, personal spending, core PCE (y/y), pending home sales, jobless claims, SPGI/ISM manufacturing PMIs, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, durable goods, factory orders, wholesale inventories, and consumer confidence; the eurozone publishes M3 money supply, industrial/economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Q1 GDP, SPGI PMI, core CPI, and unemployment; Germany issues Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, unemployment, Q1 GDP, CPI, and SPGI PMI; Australia reports Q1 CPI, trade data; the UK shares CBI retail sales and SPGI PMI; France discloses Q1 GDP and SPGI PMI; Switzerland releases official reserves and economic expectations. Japan’s May 1 policy rate, March unemployment, Canada’s February GDP, and manufacturing PMIs for Mexico, Malaysia, and Brazil are also due. Additionally, Canada holds federal elections; the BoC releases April meeting minutes; BOJ Governor Ueda holds a press conference and issues the outlook report. Notably, due to China’s Labor Day holiday, SHFE, DCE, CZCE, and GFEX will suspend night trading on April 30. On May 1, exchanges in China (including Taiwan), South Korea, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK will close. Hong Kong operates normally but suspends northbound/southbound trading. On May 5, Chinese mainland exchanges remain closed, while LME halts for the Early May Bank Holiday. South Korea observes Buddha’s Birthday, Japan celebrates Children’s Day, and Hong Kong closes for Buddha’s Birthday, with trading resuming May 6. Crude Oil: Oil prices rose overnight—WTI up 0.61%, Brent up 0.27%—but posted weekly losses (WTI -1.31%, Brent -1.75%) on surplus concerns and tariff uncertainty. Prices hit four-year lows earlier this month as tariffs sparked demand worries and financial sell-offs. Weak growth may curb demand, while supply could rise if Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, freeing more Russian oil. Baker Hughes reported US rig counts increased for the second straight week, the first since February. (Wenhua Composite)

On Thursday evening Beijing time, the Bank of England announced that, due to recent market volatility, it has canceled the plan to sell long-term government bonds originally scheduled for April 14, and will only sell short-term bonds instead. (Source: Bank of England) The Bank of England stated that it intends to reschedule the long-term bond auction to the next quarter, aiming to "cover all maturities as evenly as possible" during the process of reducing the bond holdings of the Asset Purchase Facility (APF). A spokesperson for the bank described this move as a "precautionary measure." As background, the closely watched yield on the UK 30-year government bond surged by 30 basis points on Wednesday, reaching a high of 5.64%, which is also the highest level since 1998. (UK 30-Year Government Bond Yield Daily Chart, Source: TradingView) Strictly speaking, the "blame" for the sharp decline in UK government bonds lies with Donald Trump across the ocean. His policies triggered a sell-off in US bonds, which in turn affected UK bonds that often move in sync with the US market. For the UK, the 30-year government bond is an extremely important and prominent asset. Due to the favor of insurance companies and pensions for this product, the country has issued a large amount of such bonds. The volatility on Wednesday also reached the extreme levels seen since the "Liz Truss fiscal plan shock" at the end of 2022. Because Trump's tariff proposal also has the characteristics of being reckless and lacking sufficient consideration, financial markets have often compared him to Truss in recent days. Regarding the severe volatility in UK and US government bonds, Tomasz Wieladek, Chief European Economist at T. Rowe Price, said: "Long-term bonds are gradually becoming a risky asset because there is great uncertainty and market liquidity is also very scarce." In addition to investors eager to cash out, there is also a layer of concern: the global trade conflict triggered by Trump may force the UK government to cobble together some policies to cope with economic shocks, leading to even tighter finances and ultimately having to turn to "opening the fiscal faucet." Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, warned in a speech on Thursday that although the market is beginning to recover from the extreme turbulence of the past week, risk asset prices still face a high risk of significant correction. Breeden said: " A series of tariff measures implemented and then partially revoked by the US government, even after the adjustments announced yesterday, still constitute the most significant shift in US trade policy in a century. Overall, tariffs may suppress UK economic growth." She also stated that although the decline in UK export demand may alleviate inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions could also lead to price increases, so it is still too early to determine what decision to make at the interest rate meeting on May 8. Currently, analysts are also paying attention to whether the recent severe market turbulence will have a longer-term impact on the Bank of England's balance sheet reduction plan. Pooja Kumra, Senior Interest Rate Strategist at TD Securities, said that the latest developments indicate that if market volatility remains unhealthy as in the past few trading days, the lifespan of quantitative tightening may be very short. The Bank of England's decision "clearly suggests that a period of quantitative tightening freeze is approaching," especially for long-term bonds. The Bank of England had previously planned to reduce its holdings of government bonds by £100 billion over 12 months starting from October 2024, including £13 billion in active sales.

Gold continued to edge higher after posting its biggest one-day gain in 18 months, as US President Trump's tariff agenda confused the market, prompting investors to buy precious metals for safe-haven purposes. On Wednesday, the market experienced sharp volatility, with gold surging as much as 3.9% and eventually closing up 3.3%. During Thursday's Asian session, gold broke through the $3,120 level, just $50 short of the all-time high set last week. By 2025, it had already risen by more than $400. The erratic nature of the US government's tariff plans has unsettled global markets, with investors scrambling for direction and certainty. This typically supports gold, which has risen 18% so far this year. Hopes for further monetary policy easing by the US Fed and central bank purchases have also boosted gold prices. In the previous trading session, gold initially surged after US tariffs on about 60 trading partners took effect, exacerbating market turmoil and increasing concerns about a global economic downturn. Subsequently, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of plans to raise tariffs on 56 trading partners and the EU, which will now be taxed at a baseline rate of 10%. Markets rebounded after Trump announced the tariff hike suspension. US stocks had their best day since the financial crisis, with the S&P 500 surging nearly 10%, after teetering on the edge of a bear market the previous week. The head of commodity strategy at TD Securities said, "Ultimately, gold is still seen as a hedge against instability . We are facing a situation where tariffs are becoming a big issue, and inflation expectations are also rising, which is reflected in higher yields." According to the latest released US Fed meeting minutes, Fed policymakers almost unanimously warned last month that the US economy faces risks of rising inflation and slowing growth, with some pointing to potential "difficult trade-offs" in the future. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders expect a 72% chance of a US Fed rate cut in June. A market strategist said that as the global economy faces unprecedented uncertainty, gold will continue to outperform silver. Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS PAMP, raised her 2025 gold price forecast in her latest precious metals report, while lowering her outlook for silver. She stated in the report: "As tariff announcements solidify a volatile environment for hedging, defense, and safety, which will keep gold in play, our 'reflation' base case has been significantly delayed. The silver forecast has been revised downward (too optimistic relative to macro changes and the negative impact of tariff policies on growth and demand)." Shiels now expects gold prices to average around $2,950 per ounce this year, up from her initial forecast of $2,750. She said that while gold prices are rising, investors should expect higher volatility in the current market environment. Shiels stated, "Although gold will not be immune to liquidity-driven global de-risking events, wealth destruction in the global economy will benefit precious metals ." She stated in the report, "Stagflation is coming, as demand destruction cannot last forever; prices will be passed on to consumers, and this does not even take into account the fact that the uncertainty of tariff policies will push up consumer inflation expectations. An analysis of the performance of precious metals and asset classes under four different macroeconomic regimes from 2009 to 2024—Goldilocks, reflation, stagflation, and deflation—highlights that gold performed best (+12.1%), providing consistent protection during all stagflation periods." Shiels said that ultimately, as economic activity slows and inflationary pressures rise, gold prices will move higher. Looking at silver, Shiels expects silver prices to average $34.50 per ounce this year, down from her initial forecast of $36.50. Shiels said that while silver investment demand is expected to remain strong this year, declining industrial demand due to the global economic slowdown will outweigh investment demand. She said: "Given the expected negative impact of the global trade war, silver's industrial demand should be under pressure. Unless a new catalyst emerges, silver will remain more comfortably in the $28-35 range. The prospect of a significant rise in silver to $40/oz, driven by gold's outperformance and substantial reinvestment, depends on a more accommodative US Fed policy and a significant rollback in trade war policies and rhetoric. If anything changes, it is only likely to happen in H2 2025." Shiels' updated outlook was released against the backdrop of gold significantly outperforming silver, with the gold-silver ratio hitting a five-year high earlier this week, exceeding 106.

SMM April 10 News: In the metal market, domestic base metals mostly fell overnight, with SHFE tin down 5.72%. SHFE copper slightly declined. SHFE nickel dropped 1.01%. SHFE lead fell 0.06%. SHFE aluminum decreased 0.1%, while SHFE zinc rose 0.77%. Additionally, alumina increased 2.29%. In the ferrous metals series, iron ore rose 1.09%, stainless steel fell 1.81%, rebar increased 0.55%, and HRC climbed 0.78%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal dropped 0.65%, and coke rose 0.49%. LME metals mostly gained overnight, with LME copper up 2.79%. LME zinc increased 2.22%, LME tin fell 5.93%, LME lead dropped 0.24%, LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME nickel climbed 1.69%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose 3.67%, and COMEX silver increased 4.31%. SHFE gold rose 1.48%, and SHFE silver climbed 2.21%. As of 8:11 AM on April 10, the overnight closing market. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, a strong countermeasure was announced: an additional 50% tariff on all imports originating from the US. On April 8, Eastern Time, the US increased the previously announced 34% so-called "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese exports to the US by 50% to 84%. The State Council Tariff Commission announced on April 9 that starting from 12:01 PM on April 10, the additional tariff rates on imports originating from the US would be adjusted from 34% to 84%. Click for details. The State Council Information Office released a white paper on issues concerning China-US economic and trade relations, clarifying facts and stating China's policy stance. The white paper emphasized that the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win. As two major countries with different development stages and economic systems, it is normal for China and the US to have differences and frictions in economic and trade cooperation. The key is to respect each other's core interests and major concerns and find proper solutions through dialogue and consultation. Trade wars have no winners, and protectionism is no way out. The success of China and the US is an opportunity rather than a threat to each other. It is hoped that the US will work with China in the same direction, following the guidance of the leaders' phone call, and resolve respective concerns through equal dialogue and consultation based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, jointly promoting the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-US economic and trade relations. Click for details. Xiao Lu, Deputy Director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a press conference on April 9 that China's foreign trade is confident and capable of facing various risks and challenges. Xiao Lu pointed out that in 2024, China's goods imports and exports crossed two trillion-yuan thresholds, reaching 43 trillion yuan, with the international export market share steadily increasing, expected to reach around 14.7%. China's open door will only open wider, and China will firmly practice true multilateralism, firmly maintain global trade order, and work with more trading partners to achieve win-win results and inject more stability into global trade growth. The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data showed that domestic retail sales of passenger NEVs in March reached 991,000 units, up 38.0% YoY. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the CPCA, stated on the 9th that the US tariff increase provides greater development space for Chinese EVs in overseas markets. "In the past, Chinese cars faced a complex environment in overseas markets, but now the world trade order is showing a multipolar development trend, which has brought relatively independent development space for Chinese cars in various countries." Cui Dongshu believes that there will be better opportunities, especially in intelligent electrification. "The core of intelligent electrification is electrification, and the core of electrification is the industry chain. China has a huge advantage in the electrification industry chain. We believe that in the future, we should strive to develop small and micro EVs and plug-in hybrid models to achieve our expansion in overseas markets." The SHFE announced adjustments to the trading margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for fuel oil and other futures contracts. Starting from the close of settlement on April 10, 2025 (Thursday), the price fluctuation limits for fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 10% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 11%. The price fluctuation limits for natural rubber futures contracts will be adjusted to 8%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 9% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 10%. The price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 12% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 13%. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that starting from the close of settlement on April 10, 2025 (Thursday), the price fluctuation limits for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 10% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 11%. In the US dollar market, the US dollar index fell 0.01% overnight to 102.97. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said, "As the trade situation continues to be an issue, I think over time, people may bet on the decline of the US dollar's role in global trade." The market is concerned that tariffs will stimulate inflation and hinder economic growth. The Fed meeting minutes showed that Fed policymakers almost unanimously warned last month that the US economy faces the risk of rising inflation while growth slows, with some policymakers pointing out that "difficult trade-offs" may be faced in the future. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the market believes there is a 72% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. The market now hopes that Thursday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide more information. In other currencies, European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn said that since the March interest rate meeting, downside risks have intensified, providing reasons for continuing rate cuts at the April meeting. Tariff increases and increased uncertainty have adversely affected economic growth in the eurozone and Finland in the short term. A significant tariff increase will boost US inflation. But in the eurozone, the impact on inflation may be two-way, with tariff increases increasing price pressures and slowing growth suppressing them. In terms of data, today will see the release of China's March M2 money supply YoY (April 10-17, time uncertain), China's March social financing scale year-to-date, China's March new yuan loans year-to-date, China's March PPI YoY, China's March CPI YoY, US March CPI YoY unadjusted, US March core CPI YoY unadjusted, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5, and US continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 29. Additionally, it is worth noting: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participates in a dialogue event at the Washington Economic Club; the Fed releases the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting; Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks; the Bundesbank releases its monthly report; 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks on the economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech titled "Navigating Economic Fog" at a summit and participates in a Q&A session. In the crude oil market, both oil futures rose sharply overnight, with US oil up 5.25% and Brent oil up 4.62%. Oil prices surged, rebounding from a four-year low hit at the start of the session, with bargain hunting emerging after recent sharp declines. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week due to higher imports and exports falling to the lowest since January, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined. The EIA said that in the week ending April 4, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels, compared with market expectations of an increase of 1.4 million barrels. Data showed that US crude oil net imports increased by 360,000 barrels per day to just under 3 million barrels per day, while exports decreased by 637,000 barrels per day to 3.2 million barrels per day. However, the OPEC+ producer group decided last week to increase May production by 411,000 barrels per day, which analysts believe could push the market into surplus, limiting oil's gains. (Webstock Inc.)

【US "Copper Rush": Suddenly Turned into a "Sprint Race"?】①The US "copper rush" suddenly turned into a "sprint race" this week...②Many traders were left in a frenzy: if the cargo ships loaded with copper arrived at US ports "leisurely" after Trump's tariffs took effect, their "well-calculated plans" might instead lead to huge losses... (Cailian Press)

Foreign media reported on May 26 that hedge funds are shorting London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for the first time since the outbreak of COVID-19.

Short-term interest rate futures are priced for the Fed to cut rates by about 150 basis points from September 2023 to September 2024.

Priya Misra, a strategist at TD Securities, said recently that the recent spate of bank failures in the US has opened a Pandora's box because the huge hole in the bank's balance sheet has not disappeared.