Iran’s threat to drive oil prices up to $200 a barrel may sound like hyperbole, but as the energy crisis persisted, that outcome already looked more likely than US President Trump’s prediction that oil prices would soon pull back to pre-war levels… The conflict involving Israel and the US against Iran entered its third week — and escalated into one spanning the entire Middle East — yet the global oil benchmark’s response so far was surprisingly “mediocre.” Brent crude oil was currently trading near $100 a barrel, up about 65 from the start of the year. Although that level would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, it still remained below last Monday’s brief peak of nearly $120. Given that since the conflict began, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had trapped about one-fifth of global oil supply — roughly 20 million barrels a day — crude oil prices should, in theory, have been much higher. That seemed to suggest investors still retained a degree of trust in Trump , betting that the crisis would be resolved quickly and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen — whether it was called the “Trump put,” the “TACO trade,” or “buy Trump,” many oil traders appeared to be wagering that the president would ultimately be able to limit the market damage. “When this is over, oil prices will come down very, very quickly,” Trump said on Monday this week. Yet that optimism looked increasingly difficult to reconcile with realities on the ground — whether on a battlefield where the conflict was intensifying, or in the physical oil market, where supply bottlenecks were steadily spreading. Signals Being Overlooked In fact, the physical crude oil market was sending an increasing number of stress signals, even though the international benchmark “paper oil” market had so far largely ignored them. Although trade had stalled under the impact of the Iran conflict, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks still surged to record highs, making them the most expensive crude in the world. The spike in these benchmark indicators, which are used to price millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude sold to Asia, was raising costs for Asian refiners and forcing them to seek alternatives or make further production cuts in the coming months. S&P Global Platts said Dubai spot crude assessments for May-loading cargoes hit a record $157.66 a barrel on Tuesday, surpassing the previous all-time high of $147.5 set by Brent crude oil futures in 2008. That left Dubai crude’s premium to swaps at $60.82 a barrel, compared with an average premium of just 90¢ in February. Meanwhile, Oman crude oil futures hit a record high of $152.58 per barrel on Tuesday, with its premium to the Dubai swap set at $55.74 per barrel, versus an average premium of just 75¢ in February. Oman crude oil is exported from a terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. This surge reflected massive uncertainty over actually available supply in the Middle East after Iran repeatedly attacked Oman's oil terminal and the UAE's major oil export terminal of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz. Are Brent and WTI Failing to Reflect the "True Severity" of the Oil Market? As JPMorgan's head of commodities, Natasha Kaneva, pointed out in her latest research note on Tuesday , there was a clear mismatch between international benchmark crude pricing and the Middle Eastern geography of the supply disruptions. The core issue was that Brent and WTI are benchmark indicators at opposite ends of the Atlantic basin, while the current shock is concentrated in the Middle East. As a result, these benchmark crude prices were particularly influenced by relatively loose regional fundamentals—commercial oil inventory in both the US and Europe were ample in early 2026, and supply across the Atlantic basin was also relatively abundant in the short term. In addition, expectations for a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—as well as a partial release that will soon materialize—further eased prompt tightness in Brent- and WTI-linked markets. By contrast, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman more accurately reflected the current dislocation in the physical market. Dubai and Oman spot prices were both trading above $150 per barrel, underscoring the severity of crude oil shortages originating in the Gulf region. These Middle Eastern oil prices were directly affected by export disruptions and therefore more effectively reflected marginal supply deficits than Atlantic-linked crude prices. Crucially, trade geography intensified this dynamic. Most of the crude transported via the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia—before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, about 11.2 million barrels of crude and 1.4 million barrels of refined products flowed through the strait to Asia each day. As a result, the direct physical shortage—and the surge in oil prices—was concentrated in Asian markets most dependent on Gulf crude. In fact, early signs of demand destruction had already emerged in Asia as product prices surged and spot crude became prohibitively expensive. JPMorgan noted that timing effects further reinforced this divergence. A typical voyage from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia takes about 10 to 15 days, while cargoes bound for Europe via the Suez Canal require nearly 25 to 30 days, or 35 to 45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Therefore, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows would hit Asian markets sooner and more severely, while Atlantic Basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI would enjoy a longer buffer because of surplus inventory and slower supply adjustments. The US, with crude oil production exceeding 13 million barrels per day, would be affected the least. JPMorgan believed that, in this context, the apparent price stability shown by Brent and WTI should not be taken as evidence of adequate global supply. It reflected a temporary buffer created by regional surplus inventory, benchmark composition, and policy intervention. In fact, for refiners, especially those in Asia, the current crude oil shortage had already become a serious problem. About 60% of the region’s crude oil imports depended on the Middle East, and the difficulty of finding alternative, timely supplies was rapidly becoming acute. The pressure had already forced many countries into painful adjustments. Refiners across Asia had begun cutting run rates to conserve dwindling inventory. Some countries had banned exports of refined products, a defensive move that could further tighten the global market. As the crude oil shortage worsened, refined product prices surged. Asian jet fuel prices were approaching $200 a barrel, near the record high of about $220 reached earlier this month. The Crisis Could Spread Further Ultimately, this crisis was expected to extend beyond Asia. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that Europe accounted for about three-quarters of Middle Eastern jet fuel exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz last year—about 379,000 barrels per day—but since the conflict began, no such cargoes had passed through the strait. Unsurprisingly, jet fuel barge prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub had surged to a record $190 a barrel, exceeding the previous peak set after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. The comparison with the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be even more compelling. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia supplied about 30% of Europe’s crude oil imports and one-third of its refined product imports. As traders feared Europe would lose supplies from one of the world’s largest oil producers, Brent crude rose to $130 a barrel after the Russia-Ukraine conflict—even though that worst-case scenario never fully materialized in the end. By contrast, according to Morgan Stanley, the physical disruption caused by the Iran conflict had already exceeded that level of concern by more than threefold. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would not bring immediate relief. According to the International Energy Agency, about 10 million barrels per day of production in the Middle East has been shut in since the conflict began. Restoring these flows will take weeks, if not months. To be sure, the oil market entered the Iran conflict in a relatively loose state, and the International Energy Agency had projected that global supply would exceed demand by about 3.7 million barrels per day. But that surplus has now been erased by the current turmoil. Last week, the International Energy Agency announced plans to release a record 400 million barrels from member countries' strategic petroleum reserves, which will help cushion the initial shock. But drawing down inventories cannot substitute for deliveries of new oil. In other words, the supply shock to the oil market is real and may persist. Once the Strait of Hormuz finally reopens, oil prices could initially plunge in a relief rebound, but given the harsh realities of the physical market, traders may need to think twice before betting that the return to normalcy promised by Trump is about to arrive…

[Gold and Antimony Price Increases Combined with Overseas Project Reaching Full Production, Huayu Mining Expects 2024 Net Profit to Grow Over Threefold YoY] ① Huayu Mining expects its 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders to range from 275 million yuan to 335 million yuan, an increase of 201 million yuan to 261 million yuan compared to the same period last year, up 272.19% to 353.39% YoY. ② The operational capacity of the gold and antimony project of the company's overseas subsidiary, Talco Gold Closed Joint-Stock Company, has improved. Benefiting from both volume and price increases, its profitability has strengthened.

The company planned to invest 176 million Canadian dollars, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, in the construction of a mining and dressing project with capacity of 1 million/year in Tanco mine.

China Mineral Resources claimed that lithium concentrates from Tanco and Bikita mines owned by the company are in transit to its Dongpeng smelter in Jiangxi province, and the shipment will be kept ongoing.

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (March 9–March 13), the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 534 yuan/gram and closed at 541.6 yuan/gram, down 15.7 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, a decline of 2.82%. The weekly highest price was 577.85 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 522.6 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 opened at 408.75 yuan/gram and closed at 408.1 yuan/gram, down 13.8 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, down 3.27% WoW from last week’s settlement price. The weekly highest price was 430 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 397 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 recorded total trading volume of 31,227 lots during the week, with total turnover of 17.368 billion yuan and open interest of 19,989 lots; open interest decreased by 1,894 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 recorded total trading volume of 11,077 lots during the week, with total turnover of 4.616 billion yuan and open interest of 7,612 lots; open interest increased by 11 lots WoW. At present, the US–Iran conflict remained dominated by political expectations, while the reality on the ground was still unresolved. On the political-expectations front, Trump frequently released marginal de-escalation signals to curb oil prices, saying the Iran issue was only a short-term military operation and expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran; the TACO trade pulled oil prices back to around 90. On the reality front, Mojtaba, son of Khamenei, formally succeeded to power, and Iran entered the “Era of Avengers,” beginning to threaten the Strait of Hormuz; its foreign minister said the new leadership would refuse to negotiate with Trump. If the US–Iran conflict continues to escalate, it will push up oil prices and trigger concerns over imported inflation in the US, thereby delaying the Fed’s progress on interest rate cuts. On tariffs, after reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration will seek a more solid legal basis to rebuild the tariff framework. The risk of re-inflation remained relatively high, and disputes over new tax rates and tax rebates lifted policy uncertainty to some extent. In the short term, Trump filled the tariff-rate vacuum through the 122 temporary tariff; in the medium and long-term, he may maintain a high-tariff framework via 232 and 301. In addition, the massive tax rebate pressure brought about after reciprocal tariff was ruled illegal will further increase the US fiscal burden, thereby reinforcing the logic of a weaker US dollar and providing support to precious metals overall. Supply side, NERSA announced it had formally approved Eskom’s electricity price adjustment plan for the next two years: electricity prices will be raised by 8.76% in April this year and raised again by 8.83% in April 2027. As South Africa’s PGM mining is highly dependent on electricity, rising electricity prices will continue to lift the cost center for platinum and palladium. The US Department of Commerce issued an announcement, making an affirmative preliminary anti-dumping determination on unwrought palladium imported from Russia, preliminarily determining the dumping margin for all Russian exporters/producers at 132.83%. In terms of valuation, watch changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Pay attention to details on the new administrator announced by the LME. Pay attention to the March 19 FOMC meeting, changes in economic data, and the impact of Wosh’s remarks on monetary policy expectations. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the policy and political-environment tug-of-war during the US Fed’s midterm-election time window. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the foundation for a bull market in platinum and palladium remained intact. In the short term, be alert to the risk of a phased adjustment driven by a delay in expectations for an interest rate cut; pullbacks should be viewed as medium- and long-term opportunities to add long positions. Amid high fluctuations in platinum and palladium, pay attention to position sizing. As domestic and overseas markets are not continuous, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overseas night session; investors should monitor trading prices in international markets and be wary of opening gaps. Spot market, this week most traders holding cargo actively quoted prices. Some traders reported that supply was currently relatively ample while the market was relatively sluggish. Most downstream clients had sufficient inventory and mainly stayed on the sidelines, with only some downstream buyers making small, negotiated purchases to meet order demand. Along with continued cooling in investment demand, transactions were relatively difficult and price involution was severe. Overall, spot market trading this week was generally subdued.

On March 21, Geely Auto Group officially launched the Coolray SUV in Vietnam, marking a key step in its expansion within the ASEAN market.

According to SMM spot quotations, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to decline recently due to the unsatisfactory downstream demand.

According to MiningNews.net, as the lithium market faces a downturn, Canadian lithium exploration company Patriot Battery Metals aims to enhance the value of its Shaakichiuwaanaan lithium mine in Quebec by confirming a "large, high-grade" cesium discovery to attract investors. The company believes cesium is a high-value commodity widely used in industrial and specialized fields, including drilling fluids, atomic clocks, and medicine. Data from Canaccord Genuity shows that the cesium market is relatively small, with Canada's Tanco mine accounting for over 90% of global production. Canaccord Genuity notes that the cesium market is opaque, lacking a ready index or spot price, and products are generally supplied under contracts. "Based on USGS data, we estimate cesium carbonate prices typically range from $60-100/kg." Due to the wide price range, the company questions the stability of cesium prices and expresses uncertainty about its impact on the project's economics. Nevertheless, the project remains promising. "Cesium deposits of this scale and grade, combined with high-grade lithium and tantalum, are rare globally, indicating the Shaakichiuwaanaan mineral system's significant critical mineral potential." The company states that cesium could become an important by-product of future lithium production. A scoping study completed last year shows the project could produce spodumene concentrates of 800,000 mt annually for at least 24 years. Investment and operating costs are $962 million and $560/mt, respectively, with the final feasibility study expected to be completed next quarter. In January, the company secured a strategic investment of C$69 million from Volkswagen.

The market reacted strongly to rumors about production resumptions and fee payments in the Wa region. During the night session, SHFE tin prices remained in a low-level sideways trend. [SMM Tin Morning News] Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: The overall supply of tin ore in major supply regions such as Yunnan is tightening. Subsequently, some smelters may halt production for maintenance to address the shortage of raw materials. Yesterday, the market reacted strongly to rumors about production resumptions and fee payments in the Wa region. According to SMM, currently, few enterprises are paying fees to apply for mining licenses, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Most major ore traders have not paid management fees. Moreover, inspections at the China-Myanmar border are currently strict, and the customs clearance procedures for most large-scale equipment and relevant mining personnel are complicated. The current progress of production resumptions in the Wa region is below market expectations. (Bullish ★)

On Wednesday, Eastern Time, the three major US stock indices weakened in late trading and closed collectively lower as investors digested the minutes of the US Fed meeting and awaited the earnings report of Nvidia, a leader in artificial intelligence. The meeting minutes released by the US Fed during the trading session showed that officials believed they might face a "difficult trade-off" in the coming months, with both inflation and unemployment rising, and that heightened economic uncertainty justified a cautious monetary policy. Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital, commented that the market was stagnant today, and the Fed's meeting minutes did not reveal anything new. They basically indicated that the Fed was in a wait-and-see mode, trying to learn more about the impact of trade policies. Notably, Trump defended the popular "TACO" trade in the market on Wednesday. Trump was angered by this narrative, calling it the most annoying issue, and said his repeated retreats were part of a trade compromise strategy. "This is called negotiation," Trump said. As part of the negotiation, he intentionally set an outrageously high number and then slightly lowered it. TACO stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. In this trade, investors buy the dip after Trump issues tariff threats, and the stock market will rebound when he eventually softens his tone. The positive impact of easing US-European trade tensions is fading, and investors' focus has shifted to Nvidia's earnings report, a major event for the global financial market. Investors have high hopes for the leading company riding the wave of the artificial intelligence technology boom. However, there are also concerns that Nvidia's stock price may have risen too high, despite its basically stagnant performance this year. In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to 4.47% from 4.43% at the end of trading on Tuesday. US Treasury yields were volatile last week, unsettling global markets, partly due to concerns about the rapid rise in the US government's debt levels. This volatility also affected Japan, with a poor performance in the auction of 40-year Japanese government bonds on Wednesday. The latest US Fed meeting minutes showed that some rate-setters noted the decline in the prices of US Treasuries, stocks, and the US dollar in the weeks after Trump announced sweeping tariffs on trading partners. "These participants pointed out that the continued shift in these correlations, or the weakening of the status of US assets as a safe haven, could have long-term implications for the economy," the minutes said. Market Dynamics At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 244.95 points, or 0.58%, to 42,098.70; the Nasdaq Composite dropped 98.23 points, or 0.51%, to 19,100.94; and the S&P 500 index declined 32.99 points, or 0.56%, to 5,888.55. Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, the consumer discretionary sector fell by 0.94%, the information technology/technology sector declined by 0.34%, the energy sector dropped by 1.25%, and the financial sector decreased by 0.7%. Performance of Popular Stocks Most large-cap tech stocks closed lower, with Tesla down 1.65%, Microsoft down 0.72%, Amazon down 0.63%, Nvidia down 0.51%, Alphabet Class A down 0.31%, Apple up 0.1%, and Meta up 0.23%. Shares of Joby Aviation, a US electric air taxi company, surged nearly 29% after it received its first strategic investment worth $250 million from Toyota Motor Corporation. Synopsys fell nearly 10%, and Cadence dropped 10.67% following reports that the US Department of Commerce would introduce new policies targeting semiconductor software designers. Most popular Chinese ADRs closed lower, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.71%. Niu Technologies rose over 3%, while Alibaba and JD.com fell over 2%, and iQIYI dropped over 4%. Company News [Apple Reportedly Plans to Overhaul OS Naming Convention, Using Years Instead of Version Numbers] Apple Inc. plans to make its most comprehensive adjustment to the naming of its operating systems yet, as part of a software overhaul that will extend to all its devices. According to people familiar with the matter, Apple's next-generation operating systems will be named after years rather than version numbers. Anonymous sources indicated that this means the current iOS 18 will give way to "iOS 26". Other system updates will also be called iPadOS 26, macOS 26, watchOS 26, tvOS 26, and visionOS 26, respectively. Apple's move aims to achieve branding consistency and move away from current practices that may confuse users and developers. Today's operating systems—including iOS 18, watchOS 12, macOS 15, and visionOS 2—use different version numbers, so their initial releases are not simultaneous. [OpenAI Executive: Restructuring Paves the Way for IPO, Decision Depends on Market and Company Development] Sarah Friar, the Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI, said on Wednesday that the company's restructuring plan lays the groundwork for a potential future initial public offering (IPO), but whether to proceed with an IPO will depend on the conditions of the public market and the company's own readiness. "The structure of a public benefit corporation positions us for an IPO...if we want to and are ready," she said. [ExxonMobil CEO: Company Will Stick to Investment Plans Even if Oil Prices Fall to $50] Darren Woods, the CEO of ExxonMobil, stated that the company will maintain its capital allocation plans unchanged even if oil prices fall to $50 per barrel. Woods said that at the end of last year, the Texas oil giant conducted stress tests on its business under "more punishing conditions" than the current environment and presented the results to the board. The outcome was that even if oil prices fall from the current $65 per barrel, the company will continue to invest in new projects and return cash to shareholders. Despite the company's flexibility, Woods said, "We don't see a need to make changes even if oil prices drop as low as $50 per barrel." "To achieve differentiated long-term value, we must invest in profitable growth and favorable investment opportunities," he added. [Nvidia's net profit in the first fiscal quarter was $18.78 billion, up 26% YoY] Nvidia's revenue in the first fiscal quarter was $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY, exceeding market expectations of $43.29 billion. Data center revenue in the first fiscal quarter was $39.1 billion, up 73% YoY, exceeding the estimate of $39.22 billion. Net profit in the first fiscal quarter was $18.78 billion, up 26% YoY. Nvidia expects revenue in the second fiscal quarter to be around $45 billion, with a 2% fluctuation, while analysts expect $45.5 billion.